2025 NFL Picks – Week 17: Patriots at Jets

The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: I was texting with Scott Mason, who runs the great Jets podcast Play Like a Jet on Sunday night. He said he was hoping Brady Cook – whom we’ve dubbed as the Chef – would start the remainder of the games so the Jets would improve their draft positioning. I told him that I hoped the Chef would start again so we could bet against him once or twice more.

Some thought the Chef would hold his own against the Saints, but he did nothing but take sacks the entire afternoon. He took eight, to be exact. This was done by an underrated New Orleans front, but the Patriots have talent on the defensive line as well. They’ll be able to get to the Chef and turn him into mince meat.

The one hope the Jets have of moving the chains is via Breece Hall. The Patriots just surrendered more than 100 rushing yards to Derrick Henry, but were bailed out by a Baltimore coaching staff that forgot Henry was on the roster. The Patriots are 29th against the run in the past two months, but considering whom the Jets have under center, they’ll be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage and load the box.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The other reason the Jets may not be able to run the ball is if the Patriots go up two or three touchdowns and force the Jets to go pass-heavy. Given how poor New York’s defense has been, that’s a very real possibility.

The Jets rank 27th in defensive EPA. They don’t get to the quarterback all that often, and their secondary is a mess because of numerous injuries to their cornerbacks. The Jets also just surrendered a big game to Juwan Johnson, so the Patriots will be able to attack New York in every which way.

The Patriots will also be able to do some damage on the ground. The Jets have had issues defending the run, not only against opposing rushers, but also passers. The Jets have surrendered the sixth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks, so Drake Maye will be able to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground.

RECAP: We’re 2-for-2 in fading the Chef, and we’re going to be 3-for-3. The Patriots are the obvious play here, and frankly, I don’t care what the spread is. We are going to be betting New England no matter what.

OK, fine, obviously the spread matters. If this line were -49.5, I wouldn’t bet the Patriots. But the line is under two touchdowns, which just seems like a golden opportunity to accumulate generational wealth.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I look forward to accumulating generational wealth by betting against Brady Cook. Should be fun!

SATURDAY NOTES: The Patriots are missing some players like Kayshon Boutte, Harold Landry, and Robert Spillane, but none involve cluster injuries, so it’s still fine to bet New England at this number.

FINAL THOUGHTS: TreVeyon Henderson will play, giving us hope for the Offensive Rookie of the Year bet we have on him. The sharps have not touched this game. The best line is Patriots -13.5 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -14.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -9.5.

Computer Model: Patriots -13.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on New England: 78% (66,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 38 of the last 46 meetings.

Mike Vrabel is 7-1 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Patriots -9.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 32 degrees. Light wind.