2025 NFL Picks – Week 17: Rams at Falcons

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to the city of Atlanta, where the Atlanta Hawks will take on the St. Louis Rams. Guys, as you know the Colts named me their next starting quarterback because if some old grandpa named River Phillips was named the starting quarterback two weeks ago, then anyone had a chance. I thought it was my time to shine, but Mother went to the coach and told him that I’m not in any position to be a quarterback in the NFL because it’s too dangerous. So, they took my playbook away from me. Joke’s on them because I didn’t read the playbook anyway because I was waiting for Mother to read it to me before bedtime, ha! But the sad thing is that now that I’m not an NFL quarterback anymore, there won’t be any girls who come and talk to me. Now, River Phillips is going to get all the girls!

Emmitt: Thanks, Phillips. This reminded me of when the quarterback of my team when I play for the Dallas Blue Star his name was Troy Aiking. He got hit in the head too many time so he had to retardedment. He used to has every girl in the country of Dallas goes up to him and ask him for his phone number. I think this stupid because they could just look in the Yellow Pages and foundeded him but after he retardedmented, suddenly no girl want nothing to do with himselves.

Kevin Reilly: Emmitt, I just got a great idea. Mother won’t let me talk to girls because it’s so risky, but what if I put an ad out for myself in the Yellow Pages? Looking for a great guy who is handsome, according to his Mother, is the ultimate fan of my Philadelphia Eagles, owns the biggest Nick Foles bobblehead collection, loves macaroni and cheese, and hates Charles Davis more than anything because he’s the biggest loser in the world. Is there any girl in the world who will turn that down?

Jay Cutler: No, not at all.

Kevin Reilly: Really, New Daddy!? Maybe I’ll post this in the Yellow Pages right away!

Jay Cutler: What? I’m on the phone, and they just asked if I want mushrooms on my pizza.

Tollefson: Kevin, why in the world are you telling women what they’re getting with you? That’s incredibly beta. Instead, you should be warning women what will happen if they don’t cook and clean naked for you. Threaten their well being, or better yet, threaten their family. They’ll be cooking and cleaning naked for you in no time at all. You’ll be glad to avoid wasting time with those red pages, or green pages, or whatever you were referring to earlier.

Kevin Reilly: Tolly, I still don’t understand what the benefit of a naked woman is. As long as she can clean my room and make macaroni and cheese for me, what does it matter if she’s clothed or not? Let me ask our sideline reporter Clarissa Thompkinson. Clarissa, do you ever cook and clean naked, and if you do, how is it different than cooking and cleaning fully clothed?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Fully Clothed. Have you guys heard the news? The Atlanta Falcons have created a new dance for their amazing season. It’s called the Dirty Bird. This celebration will take the league by storm, as Jamaal Anderson and Chris Chandler continue to dominate. Back to you, Fully Clothed.

Kevin Reilly: Clarissa, do you really think my name is Fully Clothed? That makes no sense! Mother would never let me have macaroni and cheese ever again if I ever talked about clothing with women. And stop talking about fake people like James Anderson and Chris Chandelier. Minda Chimes, you’re the expert here, would you call Chris Chandelier a top-10 quarterback, or is he faker than Charles Davis?

Mina Kimes: Kevin, I think we need to appreciate your growth. You have finally acknowledged me as the expert here. As an Asian female NFL analyst, no one is more of an expert on anything than I am, but people don’t see it that way. It’s because I’m Asian and female. People are quick to dismiss all of my great calls. Let’s take a look at my receipts. I called Geno Smith a top-one quarterback, and that has proven to be the case. I called Kevin Reilly a top-five quarterback, but he retired. But even though you have finally acknowledged that I’m an expert, you made a big mistake by not calling me the best expert in the world. And as the best expert in the world as an Asian female NFL analyst, I can tell you that Chris Chandelier is, in fact, a real quarterback, and I would say that he’s a top-eight-and-a-half quarterback.

Kevin Reilly: The best expert in the world? What about me? Everyone knows that I called Nick Foles being the best quarterback of all time!

Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! DID YOU JUST ADMIT TO BEING A BETTER NFL EXPERT THAN OUR ASIAN FEMALE NFL ANALYST? DON’T YOU KNOW THAT YOU, AS A CIS MALE, CAN’T POSSIBLY KNOW MORE THAN ANY OTHER WOMAN BECAUSE YOU’RE SO PRIVILGED!? THE ONLY REASON YOU KNOW ANYTHING IS BECAUSE YOU’RE A MAN. US WOMEN ARE SO OPPRESSED. DID YOU KNOW THAT MEN ONLY BOUGHT ME THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS WORTH OF THINGS WHEN I SHOWED OFF MY CLEAVAGE ONLINE!? IF I WEREN’T SO OPPRESSED AS A FEMALE SPORTS ANALYST, I WOULD HAVE RECEIVED MILLIONS OF DOLLARS FOR SHOWING MY CLEAVAGE ONLINE!

Kevin Reilly: What is cleavage? Is that something you use to cut meat?

Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you’re talking about kitchen utensils, Kevin. You already mentioned cleaver, as in a meat cleaver, Kevin. What do you think about spatulas, Kevin? Care to share about whisks, Kevin? Let’s transition to measuring cups, Kevin. How about cutting boards, Kevin? We can have a fire-side chat about colanders, Kevin. Declare your opinion on rolling pins, Kevin. Please don’t forget peelers, Kevin. And then there are ladles, Kevin, which we can’t confuse with ladies, Kevin, as in people you’ll never talk to, Kevin.

Kevin Reilly: SHUT UP, CHARLES DAVIS! SOON ENOUGH EVERYONE READING THE YELLOW PAGES WILL KNOW HOW MUCH I HATE YOU BECAUSE YOU’RE THE BIGGEST LOSER IN THE WORLD! We’ll be back right after this!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Matthew Stafford didn’t have Davante Adams at his disposal in last Thursday’s epic battle against the Seahawks, but it didn’t matter. He still posted 37 points, as he and Puka Nacua absolutely destroyed one of the best defenses in the NFL.

There’s a chance Adams could return for this game, but I wouldn’t count on it. Still, the Rams should score rather easily against the Falcons. Atlanta’s defense is better than most people think – it’s ranked 17th in EPA – but the unit isn’t nearly good enough to limit Stafford and Nacua.

The Falcons are worse against the run than the pass. They rank 21st against the rush, so we’ll see Kyren Williams and Blake Corum rip off big gains, which is something that was rare in the Seattle matchup.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Kirk Cousins was seen as a decrepit quarterback about a month ago, but he has revitalized his image, so much so that some teams will undoubtedly seek to sign him to be their starting quarterback for 2026. Cousins has played very well in recent weeks, but has done so against a couple of poor defenses in the Buccaneers and Cardinals. Those defenses are ranked 30th and 25th in EPA, respectively.

The Rams, conversely, are in the top 10. They have a devastating pass rush, though Cousins has a solid offensive line that should be able to protect him. And unlike the Buccaneers and Cardinals, the Rams can actually defend tight ends well, so we won’t be seeing Kyle Pitts slice through the defense easily.

Of course, containing Bijan Robinson will be the priority. The Rams aren’t dominant against the run, but they rank 12th in that regard, so we won’t see Robinson have a spectacular performance like he did versus Arizona’s 28th-ranked rush defense.

RECAP: What I wrote about the Rams two weeks ago applies to this game as well. What I stated then was that if the Rams were the best team in the NFL, they’d rebound off their sluggish performance against the Panthers with a stellar showing against the Lions, and that’s exactly what we saw.

The Rams had the Seattle game in hand when they were up by 16 points in the second half. The team blew the lead and eventually lost in overtime, but I believe this will only motivate the Rams to have an even greater performance this week.

This may seem like a high number, but I like the Rams. They’re the far better team, and they’ll be motivated. Meanwhile, the Falcons will be taking a big step up in class after battling the Buccaneers and Cardinals. And if you’re not convinced, recall what the Seahawks did to the Falcons a few weeks ago. Seattle didn’t even play its best as seven-point road favorites, yet it still won, 37-9.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I mentioned that Andy Iskoe and I disagreed on the Jaguars-Colts game. This was one game in which we agreed:

SATURDAY NOTES: The Rams could be down three offensive linemen with Rob Havenstein already out, and Alaric Jackson and Kevin Dotson yet to practice.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It dawned on me that this game will be completely meaningless for the Rams if both the Seahawks and 49ers win this week. If both win, I will not be betting the Rams. And given that there’s a chance that the Rams will have nothing to play for, I wonder if they’ll be game planning hard for this contest. So, I may not bet this game regardless.

PICK CHANGE: I’m switching to the Falcons. This game means absolutely nothing to the Rams. It doesn’t even affect the seeding between five and six. That will be contingent upon next week’s game. Nothing in this game matters at all for the Rams. Play around with ESPN’s playoff machine if you don’t believe me! Sean McVay has a history of sitting players in meaningless games, so we may see the starters for a quarter or a half tonight. I’m going to lock this in now before any announcements are made. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Tying in the Rams’ lack of motivation, we’re going to fade all of the key starters. I’m going to bet Matthew Stafford under 273.5 passing -115 at BetMGM.

We’re going to parlay the following at BetMGM: Stafford under 273.5 passing yards, Stafford under 34.5 pass attempts, Stafford under 2.5 passing touchdowns, Kyren Williams under 63.5 rushing yards, and Puka Nacua under 108.5 receiving yards. BetMGM has a 33-percent profit boost, so this $100 parlay pays $931.

FINAL THOUGHTS: So, apparently the ESPN playoff machine wasn’t updated last night for the 49ers win and now I’m showing that this game matters for the No. 5 seed. There’s still no guarantee the Rams starters go the whole way, but I was sorry about the two-unit pick and the parlay. However, the Rams will be missing three offensive linemen, including their left tackle and top guard, so we could end up being right for the wrong reason. The sharp action is on the Falcons, and all the +7.5 lines are gone, save for +7.5 -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Rams.

The Rams are the better team coming off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -9.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -8.5.

Computer Model: Rams -6.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 63% (186,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.