2025 NFL Picks – Week 17: Lions at Vikings

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: We began with the crappy quarterback in our previous write-up, and we’ll do the same in this one. J.J. McCarthy may have been considered a crappy quarterback a few weeks ago, but he played much better after surviving the gauntlet of defenses all ranked 14th or better following his return from injury. He was far better against the Redskins and Cowboys, and it seemed as though he would be able to enjoy another victory against the Giants before banging his hand on a helmet.

McCarthy will underdog an MRI on his hand, which means there’s a decent chance that Max Brosmer will start this game. Brosmer is obviously the crappy quarterback to whom I referred earlier, and rightfully so. He’s not an NFL talent by any means. He has played six quarters of action thus far and has scored a grand total of three points. The Lions have some major defensive issues right now, but the Giants have an even worse defense, and Brosmer scored just three points in a half against them.

The Lions, who are usually not terrible against the run, were gashed by the Steelers on Sunday. I expect them to show some heart this week, and even if they don’t, it’ll be easier for them to stop the run against the Brosmer-led Vikings because they’ll be able to stack extra men in the box. It’ll also help that the Vikings will be missing multiple offensive linemen. Christian Darrisaw is now on injured reserve, Ryan Kelly is dealing with a concussion, and Brian O’Neill missed a practice to start the week.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions’ anemic defensive performance was just part of why the team suffered a shocking home loss to the Steelers. The other end of it was their disappointing offense. They couldn’t run the ball whatsoever against the defensively challenged Steelers, and Jared Goff saw tons of pressure from a front that was missing both T.J. Watt and Nick Herbig.

Goff will once again face lots of pressure against the Vikings. Brian Flores blitzes more than any other coordinator in the league, and this will once again affect Goff. We saw Goff play woefully against the Vikings in the first meeting between these teams, as his offensive line has diminished from what it was last year.

The Lions’ best hope of moving the chains consistently is via the rushing attack. This didn’t work against the Steelers, but the Vikings are just in the middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the rush, so Jahmyr Gibbs should be able to have a strong performance.

RECAP: The second game in the Divorce Package Deluxe slate seems to be way more appetizing than the first, at least as far as betting opportunities are concerned.

Assuming that Brosmer starts for the Vikings, the Lions seem like an easy play. Brosmer is an abomination and couldn’t score on the Giants, who have the worst defense in the NFL. He’ll also be missing two offensive linemen at the very least. The Lions have had their defensive struggles lately, but they have a better stop unit than New York. Meanwhile, this is not an ideal matchup for Goff, but we just saw the Lions play their absolute worst football. They were so much better just a week before the Pittsburgh loss when they were moving the ball up and down the field on the Rams, so I have to believe that Detroit’s offense will bounce back in an absolute must-win.

If McCarthy ends up getting the nod, I’ll obviously re-think this play, but we need to fade absolute non-talents like Brosmer whenever we get the chance.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Max Brosmer will start. He won’t have Ryan Kelly or Christian Darrisaw blocking for him. However, this spread is now above -7, and I’m not even sad that we didn’t lock in anything below a touchdown because I’m having second thoughts about the Lions. Minnesota’s defense did a number on Jared Goff, and given what we saw from the Lions last week, I wouldn’t be surprised to see something like that again.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Two tackles are on the inactives list. The Lions will be without Taylor Decker, while the Vikings won’t have Brian O’Neill. This is a bigger deal for the Vikings because they were already down Christian Darrisaw. Despite the Vikings’ tackle situation, the sharps are on Minnesota. The best line for Detroit is -7 -110 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Lions.

The Lions are in a do-or-die situation. I don’t think this is an Aurora Snowmo situation because Detroit’s chances of making the playoffs are so low, meaning there’s not much pressure on them.

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -3.5.

Computer Model: Lions -6.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

Plenty of action on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Vikings: 79% (182,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

History: Lions have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Dan Campbell is 15-6 ATS after a loss since his second season.

Vikings are 51-42 ATS at home since 2014 (20-27 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Lions -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.