2025 NFL Picks – Week 17: Cowboys at Redskins

The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

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Week 16 Analysis: We had another solid week overall. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Eagles, 4 units (win): We lucked out with Marcus Mariota getting injured. More on that in a bit.

Titans, 3 units (win): As expected, the Chiefs no-showed. I doubt we’re going to get any sort of effort from them the rest of the year.

Bengals, 3 units (win): The Bengals struggled in the first half, but got their act together and destroyed the Dolphins in the second half.

Cardinals, 3 units (loss): Quite the opposite of other games. The Cardinals led as home underdogs, but saw their lead dwindle away as some key defenders of theirs suffered injuries.

Lions, 5 units (loss): The most shocking result of the day. The Lions had a pitiful performance against a mediocre team.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The gambling gods giveth and taketh away. We bet the Eagles for four units on Saturday, which looked dicey because Marcus Mariota was performing better than expected against Philadelphia’s top-five defense. Mariota got hurt, giving away to Josh Johnson, who is a million years old. Johnson’s presence cleared the bet for us, but we lost on Terry McLaurin over receiving yards because Johnson couldn’t get the ball to his wideouts.

Johnson is expected to start this game, and he’ll once again struggle to get the ball to his targets. It won’t be nearly as bad as the Eagles game, however, because the Cowboys don’t have a top-five defense. Their defense is actually in the bottom five, and we didn’t see much effort from them in Sunday’s loss to the Chargers. Of course, they were just eliminated, but will they suddenly play better just four days later? I have my doubts.

The Cowboys are better against the run than the pass, so unless they completely mail it in, we won’t see Chris Rodriguez rip off significant runs again. However, given Dallas’ lackluster pass rush, Johnson will actually have time in the pocket, especially if Laremy Tunsil is able to return from injury.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Redskins, of course, have major defensive problems of their own. We just saw it Sunday, as Saquon Barkley, who has struggled all year, was able to rip off big chunks of yardage against Washington.

The Cowboys will be able to deploy a similar rushing attack, setting up great passing opportunities for Dak Prescott. We just saw Prescott perform well in the first half against the Chargers, and he wasn’t battling a skeleton-crew defense like the one he’ll encounter versus Washington. The Redskins have no pass rush either, so Prescott will have all the time he needs to find his star receivers.

RECAP: I believe the opening game in the NFL’s Divorce Package Deluxe slate will be decided by Dallas’ effort. If the Cowboys want to play hard off their blowout loss to the Chargers, they won’t have much of an issue dispatching the Redskins. If, however, Dallas is still flat because it recently got eliminated from the playoffs, then the Redskins should be able to hang around and cover, and perhaps even pull the upset.

It’s so difficult to bet this game. On one hand, I don’t know if the Cowboys will be trying their best, especially given that they’ll be battling a team they blew out earlier in the season. On the other hand, I don’t want to bet money on Johnson. While Johnson is devoid of talent at this stage of his career, he at least can utilize his guile and veteran savvy versus one of the worst defenses in the NFL, so unlike the Max Brosmers and the Brady Cooks of the league, Johnson at least has a fighting chance in this very easy matchup.

I ultimately believe that this will look like the 49ers-Colts game. The Redskins will hang around and look like they’ll cover, but there will be just too much firepower from the Dallas side.

Our Week 17 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread keeps climbing, and it appears as though there’s no stopping this train. Josh Johnson will start and won’t get protection from Trent Williams or Sam Cosmi. If the Cowboys are focused, this game could get ugly. It’s difficult to handicap motivation, however, so I’ll refrain from betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Not that this affects my opinion on the game, but Chris Rodriguez and Ryan Flournoy are out for their respective teams. I’d still side with the Cowboys, but won’t be betting this game. The sharps took the Cowboys at -7, but there’s been other pro money coming in on the Redskins at +9.5 and +9. The best line is Dallas -8 -109 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

It’s unclear if the Cowboys will be motivated.

The Spread. Edge: Redskins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -3.

Computer Model: Cowboys -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

Plenty of action on the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 78% (175,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.