2025 NFL Picks – Week 17: Bears at 49ers

The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

If you didn’t catch it, I posted live bets during Week 16, including Puka Nacua over receiving yards. I’ll be posting more live bets on X because it takes time to upload things to the site, so by the time I do, the line may be stale. Follow me @walterfootball for those live betting updates.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: ESPN repeatedly mentioned the fact that the 49ers haven’t punted since November. Now, San Francisco had a bye recently, so that’s factored into the equation. Still, there’s no denying the 49ers’ offensive success, even though it’s come against the Colts and their injured secondary and the Titans.

The Bears had the same dilemma that the Colts were facing last night earlier in the season. Indianapolis was missing both of its starting cornerbacks, and Chicago endured that as well. In fact, several weeks ago, the Bears were missing their top three cornerbacks, their top three linebackers, and their best safety. They’ve gotten completely healthy, so perhaps their secondary can slow down Brock Purdy, especially if George Kittle is sidelined after getting hurt late in the Monday night contest.

The Bears having their linebackers is huge, as it’ll prevent Christian McCaffrey from ripping off big yardage on the ground. Also, being able to cover the middle of the field will be crucial against Chicago.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Even though the 49ers scored five offensive touchdowns and didn’t punt Monday night, the game was still in doubt in the fourth quarter because San Francisco’s defense was a sieve against Philip Rivers. Despite being out of football for five years just two weeks prior, Rivers torched the 49ers mercilessly.

This was no fluke. The 49ers have no pass rush. They got to Rivers on a couple of occasions, but Rivers had a very clean pocket for most of the evening. The thing is, the Colts were missing a couple of starters up front, whereas Chicago has a fully healthy blocking unit. Caleb Williams, as a result, will have all the time in the world to dissect San Francisco’s secondary.

The Bears won’t have as much success running the ball, though it won’t be a lost cause. The 49ers are much better against the run than the pass, but Chicago’s elite offensive line thrives when blasting open holes for D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai.

RECAP: I’m not a complete believer in this Chicago team. The Bears have gotten lucky in so many instances this year. However, I don’t dislike them either, as Ben Johnson has done a phenomenal job in his first season. The Bears are always improving on both sides of the ball, and they block better than most teams in the NFL. Their defense has also improved since the injured players have returned to the lineup.

I think the Bears are better than the 49ers, who have the weakest unit among the four in this game, which is their defense. Not being able to pressure Williams at all will have dire consequences. And keep in mind that the Bears will have had two extra days to prepare for this contest.

Despite all of this, the 49ers are three-point home favorites, which seems like a misprice. It’s not overly egregious, but we’re getting a full field goal with the slightly better team off more rest, so I like Chicago a decent amount.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread was +3.5 for a brief second on Wednesday, and it seemed like the sharps pounced on that in a heartbeat.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bears are dealing with the flu, so we’re going to be on the 49ers for a couple of units. I may increase the unit count if George Kittle plays.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’re still waiting on the George Kittle news. I’ll have an update around 7:45 p.m.

FINAL THOUGHTS: George Kittle is inactive, but I still like the 49ers for a couple of units. The sharps took San Francisco at -3, likely because the Bears are dealing with the flu. The best line is 49ers -3.5 -109. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bears.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -3.

Computer Model: 49ers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Slight action on the Bears.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 60% (133,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.