2025 NFL Picks – Week 17: Broncos at Chiefs

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 23-46-1 heading into Week 16.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Eagles -7

Bills -10.5

Patriots +3.5

Chargers +2.5

Texans -14

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1. As for Week 8, the public was an even 3-3. It also went 3-3 in Week 9 and then 2-2 in Week 10. In Week 11, the public continued to lose, going 2-3-1. The public continued to immolate itself in Week 12, going 1-4 because of two back-door touchdowns, as well as Week 13, with a 1-2 record. Things were once again awful in Week 14, with the public going 2-5. In Week 15, the public was 2-3.

It took 16 weeks, but the public finally won, going 3-2 in Week 16. Hooray!

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Rams -8.5

Patriots -13.5

Steelers -3.5

Broncos -13

Lions -6

With a winning week, perhaps bettors will finally be able to afford some Christmas gifts for their poor children.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: We will once again begin with the crappy quarterback. Gardner Minshew was supposed to start for the Chiefs the rest of the way, but he injured his knee. Someone named Chris Oladukon took his place, and the Chiefs couldn’t even reach double digits against the Titans.

Oladokun will now be tasked with battling the Broncos. Good luck! I’ve called Denver’s defense a paper tiger, but the Broncos should be able to handle a guy named Oladokun, who has a battered offensive line protecting him. Oh, and if that wasn’t bad enough, there’s a decent chance his top receiver, Rashee Rice, will miss another game because of a concussion.

The Chiefs won’t get anything out of their running game either. It’d be one thing if they could lean on a reliable rusher, but neither Kareem Hunt nor Isiah Pacheco will pick up anything against the Broncos’ seventh-ranked rush defense.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Chiefs won’t score much, so the Broncos won’t need a huge number of points to cover this spread. This is obviously a good thing if you wanted to bet the Broncos, especially given that Bo Nix tends to struggle early in games.

Nix will have an easy time in this contest, however. He’ll be battling a Kansas City defense that couldn’t stop anyone before Patrick Mahomes’ injury. Now, the Chiefs have completely stopped trying, as evidenced by the offensive output Cam Ward was able to muster last week.

The Chiefs won’t be able to generate pressure on Nix, while their secondary won’t be able to cover Courtland Sutton or Troy Franklin. It’ll be shocking if Nix can’t bounce back from his dud performance against Jacksonville.

RECAP: As with the middle game of the NFL’s Divorce Package Deluxe slate, we’ll be fading the terrible quarterback for the same reason. Oladokun, like Brosmer, is not a real NFL quarterback. He doesn’t have any experience to lean on like Josh Johnson. He has no idea what’s happening, and he will be overwhelmed by Denver’s defense. Again, he couldn’t even reach double digits against the Titans, who are ranked just 26th in defense.

And as with the Lions, the Broncos played one of their worst games of the year, so we’ll be able to see them respond well. They shouldn’t have an issue dominating the Chiefs, who have nothing to play for. As I wrote last week, this Kansas City squad is done. Excluding some meaningless Week 18 games, this is the first time in the Mahomes era that the Chiefs have nothing at stake. We saw some of their ingrained veterans slack off and look like they didn’t give a damn last week.

I believe we’ll see that same attitude in the next two games. There’s an argument to be made that the Chiefs could try because they’d love to upset the Broncos, but I don’t think that will happen. Many of their veterans are already thinking about their vacations and sham weddings, and they know that they don’t have much of a chance with some guy named Oladokun at quarterback.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Rashee Rice, Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, and Tyquan Thornton were all placed on injured reserve. The Broncos look great, even at -13.5. This is easily my top play for Thursday. Merry Christmas, everyone!

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Chiefs officially won’t have their top three tackles, in addition to their top two cornerback, best receiver and other players. The sharps were on the home underdog in the first two games, but they haven’t taken a side in this final contest. The best line is -13.5 +100 at BetMGM. Even better, BetMGM has a 20-percent profit boost, up to $200, and it also has a $50 no-sweat bet.

The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.

The Chiefs have given up. The Broncos will look to rebound off their worst game of the year.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -11.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -5.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -11.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Denver: 73% (164,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Chiefs have won 17 of the last 19 meetings, excluding when the Chiefs rested their starters.

Sean Payton is 26-16 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Broncos are 2-23 SU in December games at Arrowhead.

Andy Reid is 13-5 ATS as an underdog of 6.5 or more since 2000.

Chiefs are 9-3 ATS as home underdogs of 6+ since 1989.

Opening Line: Broncos -12.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 63 degrees. Light wind.