2025 NFL Picks – Week 17: Saints at Titans

The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

Video of the Week: Can you spot the genius in this quiz show?

For a second, I thought it might be the Indian guy, but then I saw he was wearing a Lions jersey and realized it wasn’t him. Kidding, kidding!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Tyler Shough looked like he would be a bust following his ugly losses to the Rams and Falcons. However, he has gotten progressively better since. He was solid in two divisional upsets and then in a blowout win as a favorite over the Jets. Shough stalled a bunch once he got to the opposing 30 last week, but he eventually broke through and threw a touchdown pass to Chris Olave.

Shough will continue to improve with experience, but this is a tougher matchup than what he saw last week. The Jets have major problems defensively, while the Titans have gotten a big upgrade on this side of the ball ever since Jeffery Simmons returned from injury. Simmons has been dominant in the trenches, and he should be able to cause havoc for New Orleans’ young, erm, inexperienced quarterback.

It would be nice for Shough to have a backfield presence to make things easier for him. He didn’t have that last week unless you count Taysom Hill, though Hill didn’t have a positive performance to start the game. There was also Audric Estime, so Shough will be hoping to have Alvin Kamara’s support after Kamara’s long absence.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Like Shough, Cam Ward has improved during his rookie year, but he hasn’t been as consistently positive in recent weeks. Ward played well against the Chiefs, though it’s fair to say Kansas City wasn’t trying very hard.

The Saints will provide a much tougher challenge for Ward. New Orleans’ defense is ranked seventh in EPA over the past couple of months. The team generates tons of tackles for loss, and Ward holds the ball longer than any quarterback in the NFL. Ward saw no pass rush last week, but he’ll have defenders flooding his backfield in this contest.

Ward won’t be able to lean on Tony Pollard either. Pollard has run well recently, but the Saints have one of the top run-stuffing defenses in the league.

RECAP: Tennessee’s recent success – wins against the Browns and Chiefs – has given us a more favorable number than we would have gotten otherwise. The Saints are a tier better than the Titans, so a line of three or higher is probably warranted. Instead, we’re able to lay less than a field goal.

The Titans beat the Browns and Chiefs, but the Saints are better than both of them. New Orleans’ defense is for real, while Shough is emerging as a viable starting quarterback. If you’re considering backing the Titans as a home underdog, I urge you to recall how bad the Titans were prior to those wins. In between those games, they lost to the 49ers by 13, and before the Cleveland game, they were throttled by the Jaguars. And sure, the Saints were worse earlier in the year as well, but the defense has legitimately improved, and Shough is a clear upgrade over Spencer Rattler.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I could see myself locking in the Saints at -2.5 once the final injury report is published because the line could move to -3.

SATURDAY NOTES: This line isn’t budging anywhere. I wonder if the books are worried about the sharps coming in on the Titans at +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Titans down to +1.5. I still like the Saints. The best line is -1.5 -110 in almost every sportsbook.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -2.

Computer Model: Saints -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 53% (78,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Titans are 31-23 ATS in non-conference home games.

Opening Line: Saints -2.

Opening Total: 39.

Weather: Likely rain, 69 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.