2025 NFL Picks – Week 17: Buccaneers at Dolphins

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: I thought there was a chance Baker Mayfield would be healthier last week because he had a mini-bye following the loss to the Falcons. Mayfield looked a bit better, but still wasn’t 100 percent. It seems unlikely that Mayfield will be significantly better in this contest.

Mayfield, however, has a tremendous matchup, so perhaps that will mask the injury. The Dolphins have a dreadful pass defense because of a lackluster pass rush and an injury-ravaged secondary. We just saw Joe Burrow torch the Dolphins with ease, so perhaps Mayfield will be able to do something similar. Obviously, Burrow is much better than Mayfield, but it’s still the same, easy matchup.

While the Buccaneers should have success throwing against Miami’s secondary, they won’t do as well while running the ball. The Dolphins just surrendered three rushing touchdowns to Chase Brown, but they’re ranked sixth against ground attacks.

MIAMI OFFENSE: There are tons of crappy quarterbacks starting this week, and the Dolphins are one of the teams that has one. Most other teams are going with these terrible quarterbacks as a result of injury, but the Dolphins are doing so by choice.

Quinn Ewers put together a nice drive against the Bengals, but floundered in the second half. This was one of the easiest matchups possible, yet Ewers looked mostly awful. The Buccaneers don’t have a very good defense, but they’re certainly better than the Bengals.

One big problem the Buccaneers have had on this side of the ball was that their run defense has worsened. Vita Vea is not 100 percent, so Tampa Bay’s ability to stop the rush has worsened. DeVon Achane will look to pick up where Chase Brown left off against the Dolphins last week, but the Buccaneers will have the luxury of playing closer to the line of scrimmage against Ewers than they did with Burrow.

RECAP: We faded Ewers successfully last week. I would love to do that again. Ewers is not a real NFL quarterback. He’s not going to be a viable backup quarterback like a Marcus Mariota or a Jacoby Brissett. He’s going to be in the NFL for a year or two, and the next time we hear from him, he’s either going to be an assistant coach or one of 55 analysts on College Game Day.

Ewers should be an automatic fade. There’s just one problem, and that would be backing the Buccaneers as 5.5-point favorites. The Buccaneers have lost to the Saints, Panthers, and Falcons recently, so who’s to say that they can beat anyone by six or more points right now? Furthermore, the Buccaneers are in an Aurora Snowmo situation. They will win the division if they win their next two games, so this is an obvious choking situation.

Under normal circumstances, I’d want to fade the Buccaneers in a situation like this, but I can’t bring myself to bet my somewhat hard-earned money on Ewers.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s still crazy to me that the Buccaneers are favored by 5.5 when they’ve been 1-6 in their previous seven games. They’ve lost at home to the Falcons and Saints, and yet they’re expected to beat the Dolphins by six? OK.

SATURDAY NOTES: Tristan Wirfs is out. If I had any faith in Quinn Ewers, I’d bet the Dolphins heavily because the Buccaneers don’t deserve to be six-point road favorites.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been heavy on the Dolphins. That’s not a surprise at all. The best line is +4.5 -102 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Dolphins.

The Buccaneers are in an Aurora Snowmo situation.

The Spread. Edge: Dolphins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -3.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Plenty of action on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 66% (73,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Road Team is 151-104 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Dolphins are 22-8 ATS as a home underdog after two straight losses the previous 30 instances.

Dolphins are 35-51 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -4.5.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Sunny, 79 degrees. Light wind.