2025 NFL Picks – Week 17: Steelers at Browns

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I don’t think anyone saw this coming. When the Steelers were getting blown out by the Bills, and the fans were calling for Mike Tomlin’s job, everyone was expecting the Steelers to lose most of their remaining games and miss the playoffs. Instead, they’ve been terrific ever since. Rodgers has been especially great, as he has shed his tendency to release the ball as quickly as possible because he didn’t want to get hit.

Rodgers is waiting longer in the pocket, but that could hurt him in this game against Myles Garrett, who should be able to break the single-season record for sacks in this contest. He has an easy matchup, which doesn’t bode well for Rodgers.

The Steelers have also been running the ball extremely well, with both Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell excelling. This could be a way for the Steelers to keep Garrett from having a big game, given that Cleveland’s rush defense has been leaky lately, thanks to some defensive injuries.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Shedeur Sanders looked like he’d have a chance to upset the Bills last week, thanks to some early scoring drives. However, he injured his pinky finger and wasn’t as effective after that. It’s unclear what Sanders’ outlook is for this game, but there’s a chance that his injury will be a non-factor.

If this is correct, then Sanders should have a decent game. He won’t face much of a pass rush, assuming T.J. Watt is sidelined once again. He’ll also be able to successfully target his tight ends, particularly Harold Fannin, because the Steelers are one of the worst teams in the NFL at stopping tight ends.

One area in which the Browns won’t succeed is the running game. Quinshon Judkins is hurt, which isn’t even the biggest factor. That would be that the Steelers completely clamped down on Jahmyr Gibbs last week and figure to do the same against Cleveland’s ground attack.

RECAP: While Tomlin reaches the playoffs every year, he also tends to fall into horrible spots all the time. This is one of them, and the horrible spot in question is Tomlin being a road favorite following a win. Tomlin is a ghastly 15-32 against the spread when favored on the road following a victory. And remember, many of those games were with Ben Roethlisberger in his prime.

Despite Rodgers and others being great lately, but I don’t trust Pittsburgh. The Steelers don’t have their best player (Watt), while the offense has gone up against some sketchy defenses during their winning streak. The Browns are for real, and if they can limit Josh Allen to only 23 points, they can certainly clamp down on Pittsburgh.

I like the Browns in this game. I don’t want to bet too heavily on a possibly injured Sanders, though the Browns are the right side with the Steelers focused on next week’s game versus Baltimore.

Also, it’s worth noting that this game will be completely meaningless for the Steelers if the Ravens lose to the Packers on Saturday night, so we’ll have an update once that game goes final.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We’ll have an update on this game following the Baltimore contest to see if it means anything to Pittsburgh. Right now, it’s too difficult to handicap.

SATURDAY NOTES: How are the Steelers going to throw in this game? DK Metcalf is suspended, while Calvin Austin will also be sidelined. Meanwhile, the Browns will have Denzel Ward back from injury. The Browns look good, especially given that Mike Tomlin said that he would consider resting some starters if the Ravens lose. This is a pick I may lock in during the Ravens-Packers game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line has soared because the Ravens won, with the sharps pounding Pittsburgh. This is music to my ears because we get to fade an overrated team without its top two receivers at a great price. The best line is +4.5 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

The Steelers are coming off a big upset win versus the Lions, and they’ll take on the Ravens next week. They already blew out the Browns. This game could also mean nothing.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -4.5.

Computer Model: Steelers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Tons of action on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 73% (81,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Steelers have won 41 of the last 51 meetings excluding a 2018 tie.

Aaron Rodgers is 141-104 ATS since 2009.

Steelers are 15-32 ATS as road favorites coming off a win under Mike Tomlin.

Opening Line: Steelers -4.5.

Opening Total: 34.5.

Weather: Rain, 45 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.