2025 NFL Picks – Week 17: Cardinals at Bengals

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: We backed the Cardinals against the Falcons last week. The bet looked good for a while, but Arizona players began dropping like flies. Walter Nolen, the star rookie on the defensive line, was carted into the locker room. Top edge rusher Josh Sweat had to be helped off the field because he couldn’t put weight on one of his legs. Star safety Budda Baker got dinged up and was evaluated for a concussion. And starting cornerback Garrett Williams tore his Achilles.

Baker returned to action, so he’ll play in this game, but it seems unlikely that the other three players will be available. The Cardinals will be fielding a skeleton crew of a defense that was already struggling. They’re not going to be any match for Joe Burrow, who caught fire in the second half of last week’s game. Burrow said he wanted to have fun again, and winning in a blowout sounds like a great time.

The Bengals should be able to do whatever they want against the Cardinals. Kirk Cousins lit up Arizona, so Burrow will pick up where he left off. The Cardinals also had no answer for either Atlanta runner, so that bodes well for Chase Brown.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals won’t be able to stop the Bengals, so they’ll have to match them, point for point, in a shootout. Jacoby Brissett has been excellent at times this year, so perhaps he’ll be able to do that.

I don’t think Brissett will be able to do so, however, because of the status of his offensive line. The Cardinals, already down both tackles, lost their center, Hjalte Froholdt, to an elbow injury against the Falcons. If Paris Johnson and Froholdt are both out, Brissett is not going to get much protection, while Michael Carter won’t have much running room.

Now, I know what you’re thinking: Cincinnati’s defense is horrible, so it won’t matter. Actually, the Bengals have improved on this side of the ball recently. They limited the Ravens to 14 and 17 offensive points in two matchups. They held the Bills down to 25 offensive points. Drake Maye didn’t have a great performance against them. The Bengals still struggle against tight ends, so Trey McBride should have a big game, but given that the Cardinals can’t run the ball, the Bengals shouldn’t have too much of a problem restricting a one-dimensional offense led by a backup quarterback.

RECAP: If you couldn’t tell, I really like the Bengals. Their offense is going to make mince meat out of the Cardinals defense, which will be missing at least three more starters on top of the players who were already sidelined. Arizona couldn’t even contain Kirk Cousins, so how will it deal with Burrow, who has all of his pieces available?

The Cardinals might have a chance at a back-door touchdown, but they could be far too back to achieve one. Again, Cincinnati’s defense has been better in recent weeks, so I don’t expect Brissett to successfully engage the Bengals in a shootout.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Bengals still look like a top play to me. I may move this to five units.

SATURDAY NOTES: I will, in fact, move this to five units. The Cardinals are down half their defense, while half of the other half is questionable after barely practicing this week. Not only that, but the top two tackles and top two guards are out once again.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Josh Sweat is a surprise active for this game, but I don’t trust him to be healthy. The sharps haven’t taken a side. The best line is -7 -108 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -5.5.

Computer Model: Bengals -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

Good action on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 69% (90,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Joe Burrow is 46-23 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (5-6 ATS otherwise).

Opening Line: Bengals -7.

Opening Total: 53.5.

Weather: Likely rain, 66 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.