2025 NFL Picks – Week 17: Ravens at Packers

The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: We have no idea which quarterback is going to start for either team. Lamar Jackson suffered an injury just prior to halftime on Sunday night. Of course, Jackson has been bothered by injuries all year, so even if he plays, he’s unlikely to be close to 100 percent.

Tyler Huntley may have to start again. If so, his chances of beating the Packers now are much higher than they would have been a couple of weeks ago because Micah Parsons is sidelined. Parsons’ absence has fundamentally changed the Packers defense, which is now a unit that can’t generate pressure on the quarterback. We just saw Green Bay surrender a deep touchdown to D.J. Moore at the end of Saturday’s game, and there will be more of that to come.

The Packers were at least still fine against the rush. The Bears are capable of run blocking better than most teams, and yet, D’Andre Swift mustered just 58 yards on 13 carries. Stopping Derrick Henry will be difficult, but the Packers will get a reprieve when the Ravens once again make the foolish decision to keep Henry on the sidelines in a crucial moment in the game where they have to milk the clock.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Like Jackson, “No Cookie” Jordan Love was also knocked out in the second quarter of last week’s game. Love is in concussion protocol, so it’s likely that he will miss this game. Then again, it’s not certain that Willis will be available because he got banged up in overtime. Willis’ shoulder is sore, and Matt LaFleur said that his shoulder is a “legitimate deal that he’s dealing with.” If neither Love nor Willis can go, it’ll be Clayton Tune. Yikes!

Baltimore’s defense will easily be able to deal with Tune, but both Love and Willis should be able to lead the Packers to enough points to win and perhaps cover this game. The Ravens don’t generate much pressure on the quarterback and struggle to cover at times. We saw this late last week when they had no answer for Drake Maye.

The Ravens can at least clamp down on the run. They’ll be able to limit Josh Jacobs, who is also dealing with some injuries. Jacobs barely played at the end of the Chicago loss, so perhaps Emanuel Wilson will see the bulk of the workload. Either way, it doesn’t seem like the Packers will get much on the ground.

RECAP: We’re nowhere close to being able to determine how this game will be played. There are six potential starting quarterback combinations, so let’s quickly do a rundown of all of them before I tell you to check back later in the week:

Lamar Jackson & Jordan Love: I hate backing quarterbacks off concussions, but Jackson is unlikely to be healthy. Green Bay for zero units.

Lamar Jackson & Malik Willis: Assuming Willis can get in a full practice, I’ll have a small bet on the Packers.

Lamar Jackson & Clayton Tune: I’m betting the Ravens for a considerable amount because Tune is not a real NFL player.

Tyler Huntley & Jordan Love: I’d consider the Ravens as a bet if this spread climbs to +3.5 or higher.

Tyler Huntley & Malik Willis: Another small bet on the Packers.

Tyler Huntley & Clayton Tune: Copy-paste from the Jackson-Tune matchup.

As promised, check back later in the week for updates!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The latest updates on the quarterbacks: Lamar Jackson was DNP on Tuesday and Wednesday, which is new for him because he’s been DNP on just one day each week; never two. Jordan Love has had two limited practices thus far, which is not a good sign because he’ll probably need a full practice to clear concussion protocol. And Malik Willis went from limited to DNP, so we might see Clayton Tune, after all. Stay tuned for the next update!

SATURDAY NOTES: I said I’d bet the Packers for a small amount if it were Malik Willis versus Tyler Huntley, which appears to be the case. However, this will be a small bet on the Ravens. Why? Because the flu bug is going around Green Bay’s locker room. Seven Packers have illnesses. This game isn’t guaranteed to mean anything to the Packers, who clinched playoff berth on Thursday as a result of Detroit’s loss, so we could see a poor effort from them in this game.

LOCKED IN: The sharps just pounced on the Ravens at +3, likely because the Packers have the flu. We can still get +3 -125 at BetMGM. That sportsbook also offers a 20-percent boost up to $200, so we’ll take advantage of that.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Malik Willis will officially start, while Lamar Jackson will miss this game. As mentioned above, the sharps are on the Ravens. This line is now down to +2 in some places, but you can still get +3 -127 at Bookmaker. If you don’t know, the math says that -127 is the most you should ever pay for a line of three. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -3.

Computer Model: Packers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 58% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.