2025 NFL Picks – Week 17: Jaguars at Colts

The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

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JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: It seems like most people don’t want to admit it, but the Jaguars are one of the best teams in the NFL. A big reason for that is Trevor Lawrence is playing out of his mind. Lawrence had some rocky moments earlier in the season, but has improved tremendously ever since Jakobi Meyers was fully integrated into the offense. Meyers is the first reliable receiver Lawrence has ever had. It also hasn’t hurt that Brian Thomas Jr. and Brenton Strange returned from injury.

Lawrence will continue his aerial assault in this game. The Colts have been missing their top two cornerbacks, and it doesn’t seem as though that’ll change on a short week. Brock Purdy just threw five touchdowns against these Colts, and it’s unlikely that Indianapolis will have anything solved on a short week.

A surprising element to the Monday game was that the Colts allowed chunks of yards on the ground to Christian McCaffrey. I thought they’d be better versus the run with DeForest Buckner in the lineup. Travis Etienne figures to pick up where McCaffrey left off in the Monday night blowout.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Something even more unexpected than McCaffrey’s rushing ability was Philip Rivers actually taking plenty of downfield shots. Rivers did nothing but dink and dunk against the Seahawks, but he opened things up versus San Francisco.

It was eventually obvious to see why Rivers did that. The 49ers, simply, did not put any pressure on Rivers, who had a clean pocket for most of the evening. San Francisco has one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL, so Rivers was kept clean for most of the game. That will not happen in this matchup. The Jaguars have a devastating pass rush that will rattle Rivers, especially if the Colts continue to miss some starting offensive linemen.

Rivers won’t be able to rely on Jonathan Taylor either. The 49ers have a quality run defense that was able to bottle up Taylor, and that could happen again in this game. The Jaguars have maintained the No. 1 run defense in the NFL over the past two months.

RECAP: I’m always down to fade bad teams coming off Monday Night Football. The premise is that they need more time than good teams to prepare for their next game, but they won’t get that with one fewer day. The Colts are obviously a bad team. Rivers is no longer a good quarterback, the defense surrenders far too much because of injuries, and the offensive line is missing multiple starters.

I already liked the Jaguars, so the disadvantage the Colts have in this game is only magnified. I’ve been betting on Jacksonville for quite some time now – including a Super Bowl futures bet on them at 20/1 – and I’m not going to stop now. Lawrence has way too big of an edge in this contest to ignore. And the defense will smother Rivers, unlike the 49ers.

At first glance, this spread of -6.5 may seem like too much, until you realize that this was effectively the opening line of San Francisco at Indianapolis. The Jaguars are definitely better than the 49ers, and they have the added preparation time advantage that San Francisco did not possess. The 49ers ended up beating the the Colts by three touchdowns, which could easily be the determining margin of victory in this game if there’s no pick-six to expand the score.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I love the Jaguars, but if you’re looking for a different perspective on this game, Andy Iskoe likes the Colts a lot:

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams could be missing their center. The Colts’ Tanor Bortolini, an excellent blocker, is definitely out. The Jaguars’ Robert Hainsey is questionable after barely practicing. I don’t know if this is why the sharps jumped on the Colts to take this line down to +5.5, but keep in mind that the sharps also bet the Colts against the 49ers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Like last week, the sharps are pounding the Colts as home underdogs. The pros were wrong Monday night. Will they be wrong again? Perhaps the sharps are pounding the Colts because the Jaguars will be missing two starting offensive linemen in Patrick Mekari and Robert Hainsey, though Mekari sucks. Hainsey is the center, but the Colts are also missing their center. The best line now is Jaguars -4 -107 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -9.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -4.5.

Computer Model: Jaguars -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Slight lean on the Jaguars early, but tons late.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 76% (84,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.