NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2013

NFL Picks (Preseason 2013): 10-6 (+$720)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2013): 4-11-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2013): 6-10 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2013): 9-6-1 (+$20)

NFL Picks (2013): 29-33-1 (-$420)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 30, 4:20 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 4 NFL Picks – Late Games

San Francisco 49ers (1-2) at St. Louis Rams (1-2)
Line: 49ers by 3. Total: 42.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: 49ers -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 3): 49ers -7.5.
Thursday, Sept. 26, 8:25 ET
Discuss Week 4 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

WEEK 3 RECAP: It was barely a winning week, but a winning week nonetheless, thanks to my September NFL Pick of the Month hitting on the Ravens. I feel like it should’ve been much better…

Packers -3 at Bengals: Green Bay was leading 30-14 at some point in this game. The team had possession in Cincinnati territory up three, but had that fumble returned for a touchdown. That was brutal. The Packers were the right side, wrong result.

Chargers +3 at Titans: San Diego led the whole game, but its offense struggled a bit in the second half because two offensive linemen went out with injuries. A Charger defender had an interception fall into his hands on Tennessee’s final drive, but dropped it. Then, Justin Hunter got away with offensive pass interference on the touchdown. That one would’ve really hurt if the Baltimore pick hadn’t hit. It was a push, so not a huge deal, but I feel like I was robbed of four units.

Lions -1 at Redskins: I’ll admit that I got this one wrong. The Redskins were in position to win this game on multiple occasions, but shot themselves in the foot with a dropped touchdown and an unforced fumble. This was only a one-unit selection, however. I initially listed it at three units, but Detroit went from a favorite to an underdog, which I didn’t like.

I completely got the Giants and Rams picks wrong. I’ve overrated both squads, and I made the mistake of assuming the Giants would want to win a game for Tom Coughlin, who lost his brother. I should’ve known it would be equally possible for Coughlin not to put together a decent game plan.

Here’s another contest where the correct side didn’t win (though I didn’t bet on either side):

Falcons +3 at Dolphins: Matt Bryant missed a chip-shot field goal near the end of regulation. The final score could’ve easily been 27-26. Regardless, Atlanta dominated this contest. The team won the time of possession by 15 minutes and led the entire way. I watched this game, but still have no idea how the Falcons lost. Let’s keep this in mind for later.

Week 4 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: If “struggling offense” were a real medical condition, doctors would tell ailing teams to play the Rams in regular doses. St. Louis is complete garbage. Entering the season, it was widely believed that the only issue on the team’s stop unit was at safety. As it turns out, the safety position hasn’t actually been that bad; it’s been everything else, from Chris Long underachieving, to Kendall Langford being pushed around, to James Laurinaitis looking slow, to Will Witherspoon not being a legitimate NFL player, to Cortland Finnegan playing like crap.

As a consequence, the Rams just surrendered 193 rushing yards to DeMarco Murray and the Cowboys. The 49ers run the ball much better than Dallas. Frank Gore has a superior offensive line blocking for him, so he should have huge lanes to run through. Colin Kaepernick should be able to move the chains on the ground himself if he chooses to scramble.

Kaepernick has been more of a pocket passer this season. This was an issue last week because he had just one viable target to throw to (Anquan Boldin), as Vernon Davis was out. There have been reports speculating that the 49ers kept Davis out of Sunday’s non-conference Indianapolis matchup to make sure he’d be available for a much more important divisional tilt. If that’s the case, Kaepernick will be able to snap out of his funk.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: The Rams’ woes aren’t limited to the defense. The team’s scoring attack – if you want to call it that – has been dreadful as well. Jake Long simply hasn’t held up as well as initially anticipated, so given that and Rodger Saffold’s absence, St. Louis has two liabilities at tackle. The left guard position has also been an area of weakness.

Justin Smith and Ray McDonald haven’t been as dominant as usual this season, but they’re still playing very well and should have no problems dominating the trenches. This will force Sam Bradford into even more checkdowns. Those are the only types of throws he’s been attempting nowadays, which has to make San Francisco happy because its cornerbacks have been struggling.

The 49ers typically feast on one-dimensional offenses, and that’s exactly what the Rams have. Daryl Richardson, who missed last week’s game, is hardly a threat as a runner. San Francisco won’t have to worry too much about him, so it’ll be able to concentrate on containing Bradford and his talented weapons.

RECAP: I’ve vowed in the past not to bet heavily on Thursday nights, but it’s a new season and I was dead on about the Chiefs last week. I’m going to give the 49ers a try for three units.

This spread is just way too low. I have it at -8.5, but there’s no arguing that it should be -6 at the very least. The stupid media is trashing San Francisco, saying things like “Jim Harbaugh has lost his team” and “Colin Kaepernick hasn’t done anything lately” and “The 49ers could be 6-9 by Week 17” (thanks, Bill Simmons). All of these things are preposterous. San Francisco is unquestionably still a top-five NFL squad – they’re No. 3 in my NFL Power Rankings – and they’re battling one of the worst teams in the NFL. This has blowout written all over it.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still like the 49ers -3 for three units. The spread has risen to -3.5 in some books, so that would only be a two-unit play for me. Patrick Willis is out, but that doesn’t change my opinion, though I’d like to point out that my caculated line dropped from -8.5 to -7.5.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Both teams are desperate.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

The 49ers are struggling, but people don’t want any part of St. Louis.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 81% (56,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: 49ers have won 11 of the last 15 meetings excluding the 2012 tie.

49ers are 33-16 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989.

Jim Harbaugh is 3-0 ATS as a favorite following a loss as a favorite.

Jeff Fisher is 37-20 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Opening Line: 49ers -3.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Dome.

Week 4 NFL Pick: 49ers 23, Rams 10
49ers -3 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
49ers 35, Rams 11

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3) vs. Minnesota Vikings (0-3)
Line: Steelers by 2.5. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 3): Steelers -3.
Sunday, Sept. 29, 1:00 ET
Game in London, England
Discuss Week 4 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

VEGAS RECAP: Sportsbooks took the public out back, bent casual bettors over and had their way with them all night long. This was the third consecutive week that Vegas beat the public, but this one was a massacre. Out of eight highly bet sides, only two covered (Bears, Broncos). The house was victorious with the Browns, Ravens, Bengals, Panthers, Dolphins and Jets. Vegas will have to give a bit back to the public sometime soon, or sharps are going to be the only ones placing bets by November.

I’ll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I’ll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers’issues in terms of sustaining drives and posting points have been well documented. However, I feel like their scoring attack could take off a bit soon based on what happened in the second half of the Sunday night contest. The big difference was that Jonathan Dwyer played running back. Dwyer is not a particularly skilled rusher – though he’s like Walter Payton compared to Isaac Redman – but his strength is pass protection. His presence in the backfield alleviated some of the pressure Ben Roethlisberger has been dealing with. This gave Big Ben more time to throw, which is how Antonio Brown was able to post monstrous numbers.

It’s unclear how much Dwyer will play because Le’Veon Bell will be returning to the lineup. It should be noted though that Bell is a decent pass protector as well, so there shouldn’t be any drop-off in that regard. Bell will actually provide a boost in the running game. The Vikings are 26th versus the rush (4.4 YPC), so they may have some issues with Bell, though Pittsburgh has a brutal offensive line, so it won’t be too huge of an issue.

Minnesota will have to be more concerned with containing Roethlisberger. Brian Hoyer picked the Vikings apart, so if Big Ben gets time, he should be able to pick up where the Browns’ new quarterback left off. Aside from better pass blocking from the running back, another reason to believe why Roethlisberger will enjoy a cleaner pocket is because the Vikings have just five sacks on the year.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Good news, bad news for the Vikings on this side of the ball. The good news is that Pro Bowl fullback Jerome Felton will be back in the lineup. Fullback isn’t a glamorous position, but it makes all the difference in the world to Adrian Peterson. Even before this season, Peterson posted far inferior numbers without Felton than he has with him.

The bad news for Minnesota is that Christian Ponder is dealing with injured ribs. This probably won’t keep him from playing, but he’ll most definitely be operating at less than 100 percent. Ponder at full capacity isn’t even that good – especially when he’s on the road – so he could be in for a brutal outing.

With Ponder ailing, the Vikings have to get Peterson back to 2012 form. The Steelers are ranked eighth versus the rush (3.5 YPC), but Felton should help Peterson navigate through Pittsburgh’s front seven.

RECAP: I don’t really have a feel for this matchup. I haven’t done well with these London games unless the Patriots have been playing – predictable blowouts in those contests – so I’m going to stay away. If I had to pick a side, I’d go with the Steelers because they seem to be in better shape with their pass protection issues partly resolved.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I have no feel for this game. I’d still lean toward the Steelers, especially with Matt Cassel starting, but this spread has shot up to -3.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Both teams are desperate to avoid 0-4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 59% (36,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Mike Tomlin is 19-15 ATS after a loss.

Mike Tomlin is 4-2 ATS going into a bye.

Opening Line: Steelers -1.

Opening Total: 39.

Weather: Dome.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 24, Vikings 20
Steelers -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Vikings 34, Steelers 27

Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Buffalo Bills (1-2)
Line: Ravens by 3. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 3): Ravens -1.5.
Sunday, Sept. 29, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 4 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

HATE MAIL: Another week, another stack of hate mails. These are from the comment boards:

You guys are lame. Give credit where credit is due??? The guy hit his play of the month and ends up +2.5U including teasers. He was -6U w/o Ravens pk. It’s sad that it comes to one big play covers the rest of his misses!

It’s not sad; it’s totally awesome. I’m all about covering my losses with one big play.

Hello, fellow gamblers. Why am I not surprised that Walt picked his beloved Chiefs to win on the road at Philly? Walt never mentioned how home teams usually win Thursday Night games and how the short week negatively affects the road team, something he always does if you have followed his picks through the years. Just wait when the Chiefs play the Broncos, Walt will take KC to beat Manning because as we know Alex Smith > Peyton Manning

Ah yes, my beloved Chiefs. Born and raised in Philly, I had a natural affinity for a Kansas City football team. Makes total sense.

” quarterbacks at home in September coming off two wins in which they threw zero interceptions are 0-20 versus the number since 1999. ” QBs at home in September off of two wins with 0 interceptions ONLY 5 qualifiers to pull this rabbit out of your hat? You realize how much of a dumbass you look like, right? Walt. The truth hurts bro, but you can’t win in this sport anymore. The NFL has changed since 2010. You’re washed up.

The truth doesn’t hurt that much, to be honest with you. I know I’m washed up, but I’ve completely accepted that!

Oh, and remember the [email protected] guy with no life who constantly tries his best to harass me via e-mail? I hadn’t heard from him in a while, but I guess his parents let him use the computer this weekend because he called me a “tool” despite the fact that I won my September NFL Pick of the Month:

I’m actually serious about the last message I sent to him. This person clearly has no life and no friends if he spends every weekend calculating my winnings and losses, so perhaps he’ll stop being a douche for once in his life and do something beneficial.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens posted 30 on Houston’s defense last week, but their sputtering scoring attack hasn’t exactly been fixed. Fourteen of those points came via special teams and defense. In fact, Baltimore had extreme difficulty moving the ball throughout the afternoon. Bernard Pierce was a solid fill-in as a runner, but Ray Rice’s absence took away yet another passing option for Joe Flacco. Rice has a chance to suit up, but it was previously reported that he was dealing with a 2-week injury.

Having said that, the Ravens should still have some offensive success in this contest. The Bills are just too banged up to stop anyone. They’ve been without Stephon Gilmore and Jairus Byrd for a while, but Leodis McKelvin’s injury last week was a killer because it forced cornerback Justin Rogers into the contest. Santonio Holmes looked like a Pro Bowl receiver once again with Rogers failing to cover him, so Marlon Brown should be able to expose him in similar fashion, all while Torrey Smith does his damage on the other side.

Like McKelvin, Mario Williams is listed as questionable. Williams’ absence would be even greater, as Buffalo wouldn’t have any sort of pass rush without him. Williams and Marcell Dareus both exited the Jets’ matchup early, which would explain why Bilal Powell ran all over their team. It’s unclear if Williams will be able to suit up, but it’s certain that Dareus will be on the field. That should at least help Buffalo contain Pierce and/or Rice.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: E.J. Manuel had a fantastic final drive against the Panthers, but that looks like a mirage right about now. Manuel had the luxury of battling a Carolina secondary that lost five defensive backs throughout that contest. He had greater issues with the Jets, who simply befuddled him.

The Ravens have a similar style of tough defense. They’ll confuse Manuel with some coverages, while Haloti Ngata and the rest of the Baltimore front will apply pressure on Manuel, who has to deal with perhaps the worst starting lineman in the NFL. Left guard Colin Brown is an embarrassment to his position. He hasn’t been able to block anyone this season, so I don’t know how he’s going to deal with the Ravens.

Buffalo’s only hope of scoring points is to have C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson break several long gains. However, Spiller, who is gaining just 3.6 yards per carry thus far in 2013, is dealing with a quad injury. He’ll be on the field, but the malady could limit him. He and Jackson will have problems navigating through a stop unit ranked 10th versus the rush (3.53 YPC).

RECAP: The Ravens are obviously the better team, but they usually don’t play well in these types of matchups. They often trip up on the road versus inferior competition. I don’t want to bet on the Bills because of how banged up they are, but I feel like they’re the right side. Keep in mind that Baltimore has the undefeated Dolphins, Packers and rival Steelers after this contest, so there could be a look-ahead factor.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has moved from Bills +3.5 to +3. I still think they’re the right side, but they’re just too banged up to bet on.

The Psychology. Edge: Bills.

The Ravens have undefeated Miami, Green Bay and rival Pittsburgh after this.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

A predictable lean on the road favorite.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 81% (44,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Bills are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Ravens -3.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Ravens 16, Bills 15
Bills +3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bills 23, Ravens 20

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-2)
Line: Bengals by 4. Total: 42.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 3): Bengals -2.5.
Sunday, Sept. 29, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 4 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Bengals.

The most illiterate sports bettor in the world is a man named the Real John Moss. He loves to e-mail me and talk to me on G-chat. I’ve posted all of the messages he’s sent me over the years, including those in 2012. I haven’t heard from him all summer, but he contacted me after the season opener. I’m putting Real John Moss content on its own page, so click the link to see our most recent conversation.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: It’s unreal that the Browns can’t even tank properly. That’s how dysfunctional their franchise is. When the Browns traded Trent Richardson to the Colts – click for my grades for each team – it was assumed that they would end up with the No. 1 pick so they could take Teddy Bridgewater. Instead, Cleveland may now (incorrectly) think that it has found a different franchise quarterback.

Brian Hoyer was exceptional against the Vikings. Well, exceptional by Browns’ standards. He made some mistakes, including three interceptions, but he did a good job of consistently moving the chains and hitting Josh Gordon with some nice strikes. However, Hoyer did this against a reeling Minnesota defense with no pass rush. The Bengals, who just accumulated four sacks on Aaron Rodgers last week, should be able to swarm Hoyer’s backfield.

Keeping the Bengals honest with a sound running game would be nice, but Richardson is gone. Willis McGahee was signed as a temporary replacement, but all he did last week was rush for nine yards on eight carries. He’ll be better going forward once he has a feel for his blockers, but he’ll have trouble in this contest because Cincinnati surrenders a decent 3.9 yards per carry to the opposition (14th in the NFL).

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals will have trouble scoring as well. Andy Dalton can be very inconsistent at times, and he’ll have to deal with a pass defense ranked eighth in the NFL (6.29 YPA). Dalton, as we all know, loves lobbing up passes for A.J. Green, but that could be an issue here because of Joe Haden, one of the NFL’s top cornerbacks.

Dalton will also have to deal with a high level of pocket pressure. Only the Chiefs and Cowboys have more sacks this season than the Browns (12), thanks to Desmond Bryant, Jabaal Sheard and Barkevious Mingo, all of whom have played very well thus far. Dalton took four sacks against the Packers, so he could be in for a similar treatment this week.

Given that Green will be dealing Haden, look for Dalton to help alleviate the pressure by getting electrifying rookie running back Giovani Bernard more involved. Bernard will have to do his damage as a pass-catcher, as both he and BenJarvus Green-Ellis will be limited on the ground. The Browns have a very strong rush defense ranked second in the NFL (2.6 YPC).

RECAP: This will be a defensive slugfest, so that automatically makes me side with the underdog. There’s also some value with the Browns; my calculated spread is Cleveland +2.5, yet the current line is sitting at +4.5. Furthermore, the Bengals are coming off an emotional victory over Green Bay, so they may not be 100-percent mentally prepared for this contest.

Having said that, I’m keeping this wager small. I’m a combined 0-5-1 in my Cleveland and Cincinnati picks this season (though I should be 1-4-1), so I’m a bit hesitant to bet heavily on either side.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Browns, as this spread has fallen from +6 all the way to +3.5 or +4. If you can still get +4, grab it.

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.

The Bengals just pulled off an emotional victory against the Packers. They could be flat for the Browns.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

No one believes in Brian Hoyer yet?

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 80% (41,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

History: Bengals have won 13 of the last 17 meetings.

Bengals are 13-27 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Bengals are 6-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more since 2007.

Marvin Lewis is 5-8 ATS as a favorite coming off a SU win as an underdog.

Opening Line: Bengals -6.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Bengals 20, Browns 18
Browns +4 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Browns 17, Bengals 6

Indianapolis Colts (2-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3)
Line: Colts by 8. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Colts -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 3): Colts -6.
Sunday, Sept. 29, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 4 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Colts.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. If you haven’t heard, there’s a rumor out there that Roger Goodell is pushing for an 18-game season in which all NFL players can be on the field for only 16 games. I don’t know if this is a real idea of Goodell’s or not, but if it is, Goodell might just be the dumbest human being on the planet.

Goodell needs to ask himself this: Why is football popular? There are three reasons: Fantasy, betting and a short season that has its fans yearning for more. More games damage that third item. The idea that players would be on the field for 16 out of 18 games kills the first two. Do you know how frustrated fantasy owners would be if they had to account for certain players not being on the field? Many people would just stop playing fantasy. Betting would be more complicated too. The average Joe would suddenly be hesitant to gamble on games because he would have to keep track of which players are sitting. If the number of fantasy players and bettors diminish, football won’t continue to enjoy its monstrous ratings.

On PTI, Tony Kornheiser shouted that all of this would be beneficial because it would add more players to each team. Umm… why is that a good thing? More players means worse players who normally wouldn’t be on NFL rosters. Why would the league want to dilute the talent pool? It makes zero sense.

Once again, if this goes through, Goodell will clinch the distinction of being the dumbest human being in the history of this planet. He’ll be the reason for the downfall of the NFL. I hope someone tweets this to him before it’s too late.

2. Speaking of dumb people and dumb things, it’s Spanish Heritage Month! Ugh. This really is the worst time of the year. Why would anyone care that it’s Spanish Heritage Month? My Hispanic friends didn’t even know about it when I brought it up to them. And here’s a better question: Why is only Spanish Heritage Month celebrated? What about Italian Heritage Month or Australian Heritage Month, or Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Transsexual Heritage Month? I think it’s complete bulls*** that the half-Norwegian, half-Korean transsexuals are screwed over like this, year after year.

To celebrate Spanish Heritage Month, the 49ers-Colts broadcast played a clip of the Spanish broadcast. From memory, it sounded a bit like this: “Colin Kaepernick taco burrito taco osos taco taco Anquan Boldin!”

I found this very offensive. This guy was clearly not Spanish because he didn’t say the name “Colin Kaepernick” in Spanish. When Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Transsexual Heritage Month finally rolls around, I’m going to demand for Goodell to have a genuine half-Norwegian, half-Korean transsexual in the booth.

3. It was fun to watch Adam Schefter attempt to catch passes from the Jugs machine, as seen on Sunday NFL Countdown. He cowered from the first two balls thrown his way, but he then caught a pass. Gaining confidence, Schefter announced that he’d try a one-handed grab. He managed to snag the pass, but fell down against the wall in the process.

Tom Brady, who was definitely watching this, undoubtedly grabbed his phone and texted Schefter:

“Adam forget the question I asked about whether Brandon Lloyd is available. I saw you make that catch on espn. Wanna play football for the pats plz? Also pix of Lindsay Czarniak?”

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: You know how pathetic the Jaguars are? When it was announced that Blaine Gabbert would get the nod over Chad Henne, the spread actually rose from -7.5 to -8. It’s a bit ridiculous that a team’s actual starting quarterback makes the betting public more uncomfortable than the backup, but then again, Gabbert doesn’t even keep his eyes open when he throws the football.

Can you blame Gabbert though? He plays behind a terrible offensive front. Left guard Will Rackley might just be the worst starting lineman in football – he and Buffalo’s Colin Brown should have some sort of competition – while the two tackles, Luke Joeckel and Eugene Monroe, have been huge disappointments. Robert Mathis and the rest of the Indianapolis front seven should have its way in the trenches.

I’d say the Jaguars could establish Maurice Jones-Drew to give Gabbert a chance, but the offensive line sucks so much that I don’t see it happening.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Jaguars could go down as one of the worst teams in NFL history because their defense might just be even worse than their pathetic offense, which has just three non-garbage-time points through three weeks. Jacksonville can’t do anything on this side of the football. The team is in the bottom 10 in terms of sack total. It’s ranked 31st against the run (5.29 YPC). The back seven can’t cover; the only reason its pass-defense figure isn’t so poor is because outside of Russell Wilson in two quarters, the team has battled Alex Smith, Terrelle Pryor and Tarvaris Jackson thus far.

I don’t need to tell you that Andrew Luck is better than those quarterbacks. His offense is still a bit shaky in terms of pass protection, but he won’t have to worry about that versus Jacksonville. Thanks to a new, potent running game, he’ll be able to dissect the Jaguars’ garbage defense with ease. It’ll be shocking if Indianapolis punts more than twice in this contest.

RECAP: This spread is too high for my taste. The Colts should roll, but I’m just not into laying more than a touchdown on the road with a team that doesn’t have much of a history of blowing out its opposition.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was told that there is sharp money on the Jaguars. I replied, “There’s no such thing as sharp money on the Jaguars.” This spread is super high, but you can’t bet on Jacksonville.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Why would anyone bet on Jacksonville?

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 85% (52,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: 17 of the last 22 meetings decided by 8 points or fewer (Jaguars 4-2 last six).

Opening Line: Colts -7.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Colts 27, Jaguars 10
Colts -8 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Colts 37, Jaguars 3

Seattle Seahawks (3-0) at Houston Texans (2-1)
Line: Seahawks by 1.5. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 3): Seahawks -3.
Sunday, Sept. 29, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 4 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well.

Random College Football Notes:

1. If you haven’t heard, Arian Foster admitted he received money while he played for Tennessee. I read up on the story and saw all of Foster’s quotes, and I now can confidently say that Foster is a giant douche.

Foster’s not a giant douche because he took money or incriminated his former school (at least by NCAA standards) or because he’s a vegan (OK, maybe a little bit because of that). Foster is a giant douche for his supposed reasoning for accepting financial help.

Foster came out and said that he had no choice because he “had to either pay the rent or buy some food.” Yeah, that’s great, except college athletes receive a couple thousand dollars in their meal plan and are provided free housing. This means that Foster chose to live off campus and eat non-commons food. So, it’s not like he “had to either pay the rent or buy some food.” He just opted for better options, so what he said was a complete farce.

Look, I’m all for college players being compensated. The schools profit so much off of them, so it’s only fair. But Foster should just spare us the bulls*** next time he makes an admission like this.

2. Speaking of college football team controversy, I’m sure all of you have heard about Sports Illustrated’s piece on Oklahoma State. It was a five-part story about fraudulent grades, sex and drugs on campus, players receiving money and so on.

My take on it? I don’t care. As stated before, players should be compensated. Athletes do receive bogus grades, but anyone can sign up for garbage classes like the History of Disco and the Art of Mini-Golfing. Who’s anyone to say which courses football and basketball players need to take? I once took a class called Natural Disasters in Hollywood where we watched movies like Dante’s Peak. We had no tests or anything. It was ridiculous, but it satisfied a science requirement. Should I have been penalized for that?

And so what if athletes get A’s when they don’t deserve it? It’s the professor’s call. If anything, the professors should be the ones who are disciplined.

As for sex and drugs… WOWOWOWOWOWOW!!! On a college campus? Holy crap! I’m sure no college student has ever encountered any sex or drugs.

My biggest beef with this story is that I don’t see the point. Why break it? Excluding the writer himself, whom is this supposed to benefit? Aside from the drugs – which are prevalent on any college campus – nothing about this is illegal. The NCAA disallows it, but the NCAA, as we all know, is stupid.

Oh, and I’m not completely sure the story is real. Just look at the guy who reported it:

Forget the fact that he’s a confirmed die-hard Oklahoma Sooner fan; just check out this guy’s hair. I would never trust anything a man looking like this says. If he walked up to me and said, “The sky is blue and the grass is green,” I’d respond, “Dude, why the hell did you spike the hair on the back of your head? I just can’t believe you.”

3. I don’t know if I was imagining this because I was so hung over on Saturday, but I remember lying on my couch and hearing some announcer guy on ABC shout, “The UPS college football power index rating has Oregon No. 1! Alabama, ranked No. 1 in the coaches’ poll, is No. 31 on the UPS college football power index!”

Umm… what? Alabama’s the 31st-ranked team according to UPS? What sort of algorithm does UPS use for its power index rating? Does it penalize teams that are totally awesome? Are teams downgraded for having elephant mascots? I don’t understand.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans could barely do anything against the Ravens last week, as two prominent players – Andre Johnson and stud left tackle Duane Brown – were out of the lineup. Brown missed the game entirely, while Johnson exited with a shin injury. Johnson is expected to play, while Brown’s status is currently cloudy. The Texans will need all hands on deck if they want to consistently move the chains against the Seahawks.

Seattle’s defense is a monstrosity. The team ranks third versus the run, having limited its previous two opponents – Frank Gore and Maurice Jones-Drew – to a combined 59 rushing yards on 33 carries. The Seahawks should be able to put the clamps on the declining Arian Foster and Ben Tate, which will negate Matt Schaub’s patented play-action bootlegs. Schaub isn’t very effective when he can’t utilize that style of attack, and it won’t help matters that his favorite receiver will have Richard Sherman draped all over him.

Schaub will have to worry about dealing with Seattle’s great pressure, especially if Brown is out of the lineup. The Seahawks have registered seven sacks in the past two games, and their pass rush will continue to grow more potent as Chris Clemons rounds into shape. Clemons missed the first two games with an injury, but returned against Jacksonville. He played limited snaps, but was effective when he was on the field. He should see more action in this contest.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: One of the reasons I took the Ravens as my September NFL Pick of the Month last week was because the Texans’ defense is overrated. J.J. Watt is awesome, but the linebackers and defensive backs haven’t been playing well this season. Brian Cushing has been disappointing, while the two cornerbacks have struggled. It’s poor timing for the Texans, who have to go up against a creative, elusive quarterback playing extremely well right now.

Russell Wilson threw four touchdowns in just over a half of action against the Jaguars last week. It was just Jacksonville, but the important take-away is that he finally seemed to get into a groove with Sidney Rice. The usually hobbled receiver is completely healthy right now, so he and Golden Tate could cause some problems for an underachieving back eight.

Of course, the Seahawks are a run-first offense, so they’ll attempt to establish Marshawn Lynch early and often. This could prove to be difficult, as Houston’s defensive line is still performing at a high level. The Texans are fourth versus the rush (3.04 YPC), so Wilson will have to do more than usual to lead his team to victory.

RECAP: I’ve heard many people say they like Houston as a home underdog this week. I don’t get it. The Texans could easily be 0-3 right now. They actually haven’t played well since late last season – remember the home blowout loss to Minnesota? – so I’m going against them here. However, I’m not betting on the Seahawks either, as this is a tough spot for them as a road favorite following two home blowout victories.

My calculated spread for this matchup is Seattle -3. It opened at -3, but has since dropped to -2.5, which creates the slightest value with the best team in the NFL.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As you can tell, the sharps are betting on the Texans. I don’t agree with their side. Houston has been pretty pedestrian this season, while Seattle is the best team in the NFL. The Seahawks are in a tough spot, so I won’t bet them, but I think they’re the right side.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

No surprise people are jumping off the Houston bandwagon, especially with the Seahawks coming to town.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 71% (54,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Seahawks are 17-30 ATS on the road since 2006 if they’re not coming off an away loss.

Texans are 9-3 ATS as home underdogs since October 2006.

Opening Line: Seahawks -3.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Dome.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Seahawks 24, Texans 20
Seahawks -1.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 23, Texans 20

Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3)
Line: Buccaneers by 2.5. Total: 40.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 3): Cardinals -2.5.
Sunday, Sept. 29, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 4 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Three years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

As for 2012, I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that.

What’s in store for this season? Well, I imagine Aaron Hernandez and Riley Cooper will be involved. I’m going to post new Spam Mails here with my responses to avoid clutter. My newest response has to do with a certain former coach who stalked Erin Andrews.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The big news on Wednesday morning was the announcement that Josh Freeman was benched in favor of third-round rookie Mike Glennon. It was something that was inevitable; Freeman’s off-the-field issues aside, he had been playing terrible football. His inability to read defenses and be consistently accurate was alarming. I just thought Freeman would be benched after the bye, so I’m a bit surprised by the timing of it. Freeman was as well. According to Charlie’s sources, Freeman was “blindsided” by this.

So, is Glennon an improvement? Perhaps he could be in the future. Glennon isn’t mobile at all, but he has a big arm. Unfortunately, he doesn’t use it. He settles for checkdowns way too often, which will undoubtedly frustrate Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams in the short term. Oh, and speaking of Jackson, he suffered a rib injury last week. Adam Schefter indicated that Jackson could play in this contest, but there’s always a chance he won’t be 100 percent. Considering that he has to deal with Patrick Peterson, it’s safe to assume Jackson won’t produce much in this matchup.

Considering that Jackson is hurt and Glennon is making first start, the offense will be extremely limited. The Cardinals are seventh versus the run (3.4 YPC), so even Doug Martin won’t be able to generate much.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals played pretty well offensively in their first two games, but generated only seven points at New Orleans last week. So, what happened? From watching it, it looked like the Superdome crowd noise played a huge factor. Carson Palmer was constantly pressing the side of his helmet so he could hear the play calls. He also couldn’t audible. The offensive line had issues with protections, which would explain why Palmer was sacked four times in that contest.

Tampa Bay doesn’t nearly have the same type of crowd noise at Raymond James – especially with the team reeling right now – but Palmer could have issues in the pocket once again because the Buccaneers have 12 sacks on the season, which ties them for third in the NFL. Arizona’s offensive line blows – particularly Levi Brown and right guard Paul Fanaika – so the Buccaneers will have the edge in the trenches on this side of the ball.

Meanwhile, Darrelle Revis will smother Larry Fitzgerald. Despite coming off a torn ACL, Revis has played extremely well this season. The same can’t be said, however, for the rest of the defensive backs. Dashon Goldson and Mark Barron have been just mediocre, while second-round rookie Johnthan Banks has been torched on occasion. Even if Revis takes Fitzgerald away, Palmer will occasionally find Andre Roberts and Michael Floyd for sizable gains.

RECAP: This is my favorite play of the week. I have this spread calculated at Cardinals -2.5 – this was also my number prior to the Freeman benching – so we’re getting 5.5 points of value according to my numbers.

The Buccaneers are a dreadful team that is very close to quitting on its head coach. Freeman was struggling, but he still had the support of some of his teammates. Considering that Freeman was “blindsided” by the news, the Buccaneer veterans who have been frustrated with Greg Schiano for a while now could see this as yet another power move by the overbearing coach. With a bye coming up and a team that isn’t seen as a threat coming into town, the Tampa players could mail this in.

More reasons to bet the superior Cardinals: They’re playing in their second-consecutive road game, which usually carries a high cover rate. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are coming off two tough losses as underdogs, so there’s a good chance they’ll be flat as a non-divisional favorite. Plus, think about this logically: Is it reasonable to ask Glennon and a hobbled Jackson to outscore a team with a tough defense by four or more points?

Oh, and if you’re concerned with Arizona’s early start time, don’t be. As Charlie first reported, the Cardinals have stayed on the East Coast for the Buccaneers game, so their body clocks won’t need to adjust.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I wish Freeman were starting this game. The Buccaneers are actually sounding upbeat now that he’s been benched. However, if Glennon struggles, as he did in the preseason, the team could mail it in.

The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.

The Buccaneers are coming off two tough losses against the Saints and Patriots as underdogs. Now, they’re favorites, so they could be flat. They’re desperate for a win though.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
People are fading Mike Glennon.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 61% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Buccaneers are 9-21 ATS at home in the previous 30 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -3.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Cardinals 16, Buccaneers 13
Cardinals +2.5 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cardinals 13, Buccaneers 10

Chicago Bears (3-0) at Detroit Lions (2-1)
Line: Lions by 3. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Lions -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 3): Pick.
Sunday, Sept. 29, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 4 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: If you haven’t see my Trent Richardson trade grades, click the link. What does this have to do with the Video of the Week? FootballFanSpot.com’s Steven L. sent me the Something from Nothing Foundation link – a video where you can donate old Cleveland Browns’ jerseys to those in poverty. It’s a hilarious video, and I nearly lost it when the Mexican kid said, “Gracias, Senor Jeff Garcia.”

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Bears’ defense is overrated. They let Andy Dalton have a near-perfect game in Week 1, allowed Christian Ponder to look competent on the road the following Sunday and most recently surrendered 400-plus yards to Ben Roethlisberger. They also lost defensive tackle Henry Melton for the season with a torn ACL. Melton actually hadn’t been playing nearly as well as he did a year ago, but his absence will unquestionably create depth issues.

Other Bears who have underachieved include Julius Peppers (no sacks), cornerback Charles Tillman and safety Major Wright. All three better bring their “A” game for a change, or they’ll have big issues defending the Lions. If Peppers can’t pressure Matthew Stafford, the talented, gun-slinging quarterback will have all day to fire the ball downfield to Calvin Johnson, who won’t face much resistance with Tillman and Wright both reeling. The one positive for Chicago in this aspect is that Nate Burleson is out with a broken arm. Ryan Broyles is set to be a greater part of the game plan, but he hasn’t looked too healthy in his brief action.

I want to bring up Melton again because he was pretty weak versus the run. His absence won’t hurt in that regard, so don’t feel like Reggie Bush needs to be upgraded, or anything. Bush, by the way, was close to playing last week, so he should be in the lineup. His ability to break big gains will undoubtedly be a big boost for the Lions, who have missed that the past two weeks.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Considering that the Bears have disappointed defensively, their scoring attack deserves a ton of credit for their 3-0 start. Their offensive line in particular has performed extremely well. In fact, Chicago is tied for the fewest sacks allowed this season with only three. The Lions have a great pass rush – Ndamukong Suh has been dominant the past two weeks – but considering that the Bears prevented Cincinnati’s spectacular front from notching a single sack, I’m confident that Cutler’s pocket will remain relatively clean.

Cutler’s upgraded pass protection is why he’s been so efficient this season. He has completed 67.3 percent of his passes, which is a career-best by far (previous was 63.6% in 2007). It also helps that Martellus Bennett was signed and Alshon Jeffery has improved. Both players, as well as Brandon Marshall, of course, figure to get open against a questionable Detroit back seven that features players like Rashean Mathis and Ashlee Palmer as starters. The Lions had problems containing Washington’s inferior wideouts, so dealing with Marshall, Bennett and Jeffery could be problematic.

Oh, and don’t forget about Matt Forte leaking out of the backfield. Forte has been a huge part of the passing attack this season, as he’s on pace for 96 catches on the year. He has also run well, which doesn’t bode well for Detroit’s 29th-ranked ground defense.

RECAP: Both teams are equally matched in terms of talent. They have shaky defenses with explosive offenses. However, one team usually finds a way to win, while the other often finds a way to screw itself out of a potential victory.

I love the idea of getting three points with the more-reliable squad. My calculated spread is pick ’em. The Bears have dominated this rivalry. They’re also playing in their second-consecutive road contest, which comes with a high cover rate. Detroit, meanwhile, will find some way to shoot itself in the foot.

One final note: If you’re playing the contrarian angle and want to lay points with a team battling an undefeated squad, that happens to be a losing proposition. Road, divisional underdogs that are undefeated (3-0 or better) are 11-8 against the spread since 1989. That’s obviously not good enough to bet either side, but it should at least help destroy the contrarian fallacy that it’s a sharp maneuver to wager against undefeated underdogs.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Lions. I disagree again. The sharps have been killing it this year, so perhaps they’re due for a down week. Or maybe my picks will suck again.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
The Bears are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 61% (31,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Bears have won 14 of the last 17 meetings.

Jay Cutler is 30-51 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Lions -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Bears 27, Lions 24
Bears +3 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Over 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Lions 40, Bears 32

New York Giants (0-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-0)
Line: Chiefs by 4. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 3): Chiefs -2.5.
Sunday, Sept. 29, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 4 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts is back for a second season! As with everything else though, I’m moving it to its own separate page. See what’s going on this week with this picture here:

NEW YORK OFFENSE: When a team scores zero points against an opponent missing five defensive backs, there’s something fundamentally wrong. For the Giants, it’s the offensive line. The group just couldn’t block at all. Eli Manning was sacked six times in the first 18 minutes or so of the Carolina shutout. The worst offender was rookie right tackle Justin Pugh, who simply looked like he was playing out of position. Left tackle William Beatty was almost equally awful.

The thing is that Beatty and Pugh have performed better in prior games this season, so there’s a chance they could rebound. However, this is only a slim possibility because they arguably have an even tougher matchup this week against Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. Neither Beatty nor Pugh will be able to get much help either, given that nose tackle Dontari Poe, who should be a Pro Bowler this year, will be disrupting the interior.

All of this will once again make life difficult for Eli Manning and David Wilson. Tom Coughlin actually did a good job of going back to Wilson last week. The electrifying runner even scored a touchdown, though it was called back. However, the Chiefs, who have limited two of their three opponents to 55 rushing yards or fewer, should be able to bottle up Wilson.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Giants have some glaring defensive issues as well. Their front four can’t pressure the quarterback, while their back seven misses tackles and blows coverages. They made the previously struggling Cam Newton look like the second coming of John Elway last week, for crying out loud.

Alex Smith is no Cam Newton, however, as he relies on checkdowns to his speedy targets to keep drives alive. This has to be a huge relief to an ailing secondary, but this just means than an even more anemic linebacking corps will be tasked to make sound tackles in order to keep Kansas City in long-yardage situations. The Eagles had difficulty doing this, as they missed a ridiculous 12 tackles Thursday night. The Giants have whiffed on a high number themselves this season (22). It’s not as poor as Philadelphia’s figure (28), but it’s a dubious stat nonetheless.

Expect Jamaal Charles to have tons of success both through the air and on the ground. New York is 20th versus the rush, so Charles could break several long gains.

RECAP: I love the spot the Giants are in. Teams that are embarrassed like they were last week often rebound. Throw in the fact that they’re desperate, while the Chiefs don’t need this game (they’re 3-0 playing a non-conference tilt), and New York seems like the obvious side.

So, big play on the Giants, right? No, because there’s no line value with them. I was hoping we’d get a figure of +6 or maybe even +7 following Kansas City’s win over the Eagles and New York’s shutout defeat at Carolina, but this spread is frustratingly low. I’ll still bet a unit on the Giants, but this won’t be nearly the big play I was hoping it would be following the Week 3 slate.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Giants are in a great spot to rebound, but this spread is way too low. This is the second time the sportsbooks have screwed us with a Kansas City spread (Week 2).

PICK CHANGE: I’m dropping this to a non-bet. I can’t stomach wagering any money on the Giants.

The Psychology. Edge: Giants.
The Giants are desperate for a win. The Chiefs, sitting comfortably at 3-0, don’t need to beat a non-conference foe.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.
This spread opened at -4.5, but the sharps steamed it down to -3.5. There was buyback after that, which moved it to -4.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 60% (38,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Giants are 35-17 ATS on the road since 2006 as long as they’re not favored by 3.5 or more.

Eli Manning is 26-15 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

Andy Reid is 11-19 ATS vs. non-conference opponents as a favorite since 2002.

Opening Line: Chiefs -4.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 20, Giants 17
Giants +4 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 31, Giants 7

Week 4 NFL Picks – Late Games
NY Jets�at�Tennessee, Philadelphia�at�Denver, Dallas�at�San Diego, Washington�at�Oakland, New England�at�Atlanta, Miami�at�New Orleans

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 4 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Oct. 30

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Oct. 30

NFL Power Rankings - Oct. 28

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 8, 2024): 10-5-1 (+$1,405)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 4-3 (+$855)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 2-0 (+$900)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 8, 2024): 10-6 ($0)
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2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 65-65-5, 50.0% (-$2,315)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 15-22, 40.5% (-$1,485)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 13-11, 54.2% (+$300)
2024 Season Over-Under: 63-59-1, 51.6% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$275

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,486-3,217-200, 52.0% (+$19,355)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,122-1,007-56 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 566-496-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,922-2,893-75 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 3-3	Bears: 3-4	Bucs: 5-3	49ers: 6-2
Eagles: 3-4	Lions: 6-1	Falcons: 3-5	Cardinals: 6-2
Giants: 2-5	Packers: 4-3	Panthers: 4-4	Rams: 3-4
Redskins: 2-5	Vikings: 3-4	Saints: 4-4	Seahawks: 5-2

Bills: 3-5	Bengals: 2-6	Colts: 5-3	Broncos: 6-2
Dolphins: 3-4	Browns: 2-6	Jaguars: 2-5	Chargers: 3-3
Jets: 4-4	Ravens: 4-3	Texans: 3-5	Chiefs: 2-4
Patriots: 5-2	Steelers: 2-6	Titans: 4-3	Raiders: 4-4

Divisional: 13-18 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 12-11 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 23-16 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 15-23 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 24-36 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 10-5 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 7-13 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 3-5 (2011-23: 33-37)