NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2011): 5-7-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2011): 4-8-1 (-$820)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2011): 3-10 (-$1,145)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2011): 7-7 (+$695)

NFL Picks (2011): 67-71-7 (-$3,455)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 14, 5:20 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 10 NFL Picks – Early Games

Baltimore Ravens (6-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-6)
Line: Ravens by 7. Total: 41.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Ravens -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Ravens -6.5.
Sunday, Nov. 13, 4:05 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

It’s time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter – a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com’s GameCenter and my thoughts on them (the first from Facebook friend Tim C.):

1. “the only one stupid is you and denver. you’re not going to the playoff, so deal with tit. teblow not, i repeat, not, an elite QB. not even good enough to e peyton manings gofer. denver sucks. unfortunately, miami sucks wores right now, It obvious the Dolphins player lain down to lose this game.”

Deal with Tit? Teblow? Miami sucks whores? Didn’t think that GameCenter was rated R.

2. “CAROLINA PANTHERS WILL GO TO THE SUPERBOWL THIS YEAR AND WIN IT ALL AND BYE THE WAY ATLANTA FALCONS SUCK;CAM NEWTON WHO GOING TO STOP THAT GUY HE GOT SKILL,TALENT,SPEED,AND PASSING;GO CATS”

Cam Newton has passing? Say it ain’t so!

3. “kyle orten played good in the presession and in ptatic”

The NFL season is comprised of four parts: The presession, the regular session, the post session and the ptatic.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: This is what Baltimore fans have been waiting for. Joe Flacco had to beat the Steelers on his own, and he did. He marched 92 yards down the field and threw the winning touchdown with a few seconds remaining on the clock.

Can Flacco carry it over against a weak opponent though? That’s been the Ravens’ crux this year. They’ve beaten really good teams, but they’ve dropped a couple of games on the road to the Titans and Jaguars, and nearly lost to the Cardinals.

Flacco will have to do almost everything on his own because Seattle ranks fourth against the rush. Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin should be able to get open against Brandon Browner and Dick Sherman, so Flacco may not have to work too hard.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Marshawn Lynch had a surprise performance against the Cowboys, rushing for 135 yards on 23 carries. Don’t expect that to happen again this weekend though. Dallas was missing Sean Lee, one of its top defenders. The Ravens, meanwhile, rank second versus the run, limiting the opposition to 3.4 YPC.

Assuming Lynch can’t run the ball, the Seahawks are going to have a tough time moving the chains. Tarvaris Jackson stinks, so I can’t see him having much success against Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Baltimore’s vaunted defense.

RECAP: I’m taking Seattle for a couple of units for these reasons:

1. As mentioned, the Ravens have been experiencing issues dealing with inferior competition. They’ve played down to Tennessee, Jacksonville and Arizona.

2. Baltimore may look past the Seahawks. Following this “easy” victory, the team has to deal with the upstart Bengals and 49ers.

3. There’s some shady line movement here. Despite everyone and their evil stepsister betting on the Ravens, the spread has dropped from -7.5 to -6.5, indicating that the sharps are all over Seattle.

4. Since Week 4, the Seahawks are actually 4-1-1 against the spread. They covered against the Falcons and Cowboys, and actually managed to beat the Giants on the road. So don’t think that Baltimore winning by a touchdown or more is a given.

The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.

The Ravens could be flat off their victory against the Steelers. They have the Bengals and 49ers after this contest.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Hmm… I wonder whom the public wants to bet on.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 90% (63,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Ravens are 13-8 ATS vs. teams with losing records under John Harbaugh.

Ravens are 28-18 ATS in November.

Opening Line: Ravens -7.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 48 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Ravens 20, Seahawks 17
Seahawks +7 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 22, Ravens 17

Detroit Lions (6-2) at Chicago Bears (5-3)
Line: Bears by 3. Total: 43.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Bears -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Bears -1.
Sunday, Nov. 13, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Bears.

More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter: From reading these idiotic posts every week for the past three years, I think we can confirm that the people on GameCenter fall into three categories: 1) little kids. 2) brain-dead people. 3) losers who do nothing but play World of Warcraft.

What do these three demographics have in common? They don’t get laid.

So, with that in mind, what happens when a hot chick starts posting on GameCenter? If the answer isn’t obvious, I can show you.

There’s a user named Kimbrkitty. Here’s her profile picture:

Here are some of the more perverted comments sent her way:

1. “Purrrr meow”

Come on, Kimbrkitty, give this guy a shot. He’s clever. He said “purrr meow” when your user name has a “kitty” in there. That’s definitely worth a BJ.

2. “Wow, ur hot :] nice pic:) what hav u been up to lately?”

Not answering losers like you.

3. “Nice profile pic girl did i say something wrong”

Wow, think this guy lacks confidence? He didn’t even finish his sentence, yet he already thinks he’s rejected. Next time, say something clever like “purrr” or “meow,” bud.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: If Detroit’s defensive line thinks it’s going up against the same Bear front that committed countless penalties and gave up numerous sacks several Monday nights ago, it’s deeply mistaken.

it’s amazing how Chicago’s offensive line has come together. It didn’t surrender a single sack against the Eagles. The unit also run blocked extremely well, which bodes well because Detroit pretty much utilizes the same wide-nine scheme.

I fully expect Matt Forte to have a huge outing, setting up Jay Cutler with third-and-manageable situations. With Earl Bennett finally healthy, Cutler will be more effective going forward, as we all saw Monday night. Bennett’s not a super talent or anything, but he’s Cutler’s favorite receiver by a long shot. You can’t dismiss that type of comfort level.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions were sputtering offensively prior to that blowout against the Broncos. They scored only 16 points against the Falcons. A major problem has been the absence of Jahvid Best, who is still out with a concussion. Best was present for the first game against the Bears in which he rushed for 163 yards and a touchdown on just 12 carries.

With Maurice Morris starting in the backfield, the Bears can focus more on stopping the passing attack and getting to the quarterback. The latter was already rather easy; Detroit’s offensive line is in worse shape than Chicago’s right now, which is something that couldn’t be said in the previous meeting.

Containing Calvin Johnson is another story, but he’s always going to get his. What the Bears need to do is pressure the hell out of Stafford, and force him into several sacks and turnovers. That could definitely happen.

RECAP: The Bears are playing great football right now, and I think they’ll be able to avenge their earlier loss to Detroit. The Lions are coming off a bye, but that’s not a good thing in this situation. Road underdogs with a week off following a win are 32-48 against the spread since 1990.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 58% (61,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

History: Bears have won 11 of the last 14 meetings (Lions 3-0 ATS last 3 meetings).

Bears are 24-14 ATS in November since 2001.

Jay Cutler is 29-47 ATS.

Jay Cutler is 13-23 ATS as a favorite.

Opening Line: Bears -3.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Cloudy, 56 degrees. Mild wind, 18 mph.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Bears 23, Lions 17
Bears -3 +100 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bears 37, Lions 13

New York Giants (6-2) at San Francisco 49ers (7-1)
Line: 49ers by 3.5. Total: 42.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): 49ers -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): 49ers -3.
Sunday, Nov. 13, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

I have a special treat for you.

Last week, I posted some perverted messages that illiterate GameCenter poster Farim sent to some female GameCenter users:

Well, Farim sent me some messages on G-chat. I thought I’d mess around with him:

Farim: wsp willa

Me: nm wsp walder

Farim: philly is da best sportz city in da america

Me: nah dud tulsa is da best

Farim: tulsa is a suck city philly is da place 2 b

At this point, I thought I’d try a different angle. A kielbasa angle, if you will.

Me: nah or Hokendauqua is the best u kno why

Farim: hokeajkoso suck philly is da place 2 b

Me: matt millen born dere u no matt milen?

Farim: wtf is a millen

Me: he liek to stuff kielbasa in your azzhole!

Farim: kiealnazka up yur t!ts
wtf
can i suck yur t.i.t.s

Me: kielbasa is liek long sausage and he liek to stick up yo azz

Farim: kielanza is a suck city philly is da place 2 b

Me: and u liek it to cuz u 100 prcent usda man

Farim: no like PHILLY IS DA BEST SPORTS CITY IN DA AMRICA

Me: milen come to yo hotel room and stuff kuelbasa in yo azz

Farim: milen suck

Me: milen suck yo bird!

Farim: bird is da best team in da nfl EAGLES

Me: ha! you say yo gay with millen
not that therez anythin wrong wit dat!

Farim: how is dat p.u.$.$.y
yu make no sense

Me: suck yo k.i.e.l.b.a.s.a.

Farim: jet suck

Me: farim suck

Farim: f.u.k yu
willa suck
yur team suck
eagle is da best team in the nfl

Me: my team iz da eagle so yu just say da eagle suck !

Farim: the loss folk

Me: u a folk

Farim: eagle is da best team in da nfl
i no folk
wsp s.e.x.y

Me: wsp kielbasa in yo azz

Farim: kielakxla suck the eagle guna beat them vick is da men

Me: vick and farim party in hotle room with millen

Farim: wtf
milen win flok

Me: only qestion is, who get the kielbasa first up the azz!

Farim: heyy s.e.x.y

Me: my name kimbrkitty

Farim: kielaoxl suck
who dat ?

Me: http://www.nfl.com/fans/profile/kimbrkitty

Farim: yur team suck eagle guna kill them

Me: my team eagle so how eagle gonna kill eagle dumb azz!

Farim: yur team eagle?

Me: my team eagle

Farim: our team guna win superboal

Me: 5 superboal in a row

Farim: omg kismgykiry i wana eat ur p.u.$.$.y.y from da back

Me: i wanna suck ur peniz from da front

Farim: giant suck the win the eagle flak

Me: eagle losz by flek

Farim: can yu send me a nacked pik

Me: i send u pick in 10 secs

Farim: add me http://www.nfl.com/fans/profile/farim

Me:

Farim: colt suck philly is da team 2 beat

Me: thaz my broz shirt my team is da eagle

Farim: peyton manning lose da games
he is a suck qb
he make colkts be 0 and 10000000000000000000000000000000000
y yu not ansering

Me: cyz yu no send me naked pic

Farim: paytin manning make da colt 0 and 100000000000000000000000000000000000320-213`4
i no have nacked pik

Me: send me pick any pick then!

You know, I’d post the second half of this conversation, but I’d fear too many people would have an aneurysm. I’ll save it for next week.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: So, Eli Manning’s a top-five quarterback after all. Well, maybe. His drive to beat the Patriots was a really good one, but let’s not forget that New England had bums named Sergio Brown, James Ihedigbo and Phillip Adams all seeing major snaps in last week’s game.

It’s safe to say that the 49ers will provide a much tougher test for Eli. They’ve been able to put immense pressure on the quarterback since first-round pick Aldon Smith emerged. Something has to give though because the Giants have surrendered only one sack in their previous three games.

The 49ers rank first against the run, yielding just 3.1 YPC to opposing backs. With Brandon Jacobs held in check (unlike last week), it’ll all fall on Eli’s shoulders, so he’ll have an opportunity to prove once again that he’s on Tom Brady’s level.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Unlike the 49ers, the Giants have had issues against ground attacks. They’ve allowed at least 100 rushing yards to every foe they’ve battled dating back to Week 3. I thought this would change with Justin Tuck back in the lineup, but he wasn’t particularly effective last week.

If Tuck doesn’t magically improve in seven days, Frank Gore will be the latest runner to trample New York’s defense. This will be key, as the Giants lead the NFL with 28 sacks.

Alex Smith has to stay out of third-and-long situations against the Giants’ pass rush. If he can, he should be able to manage the game, move the chains and put enough points on the board to win (and cover). On the other hand, if Smith is constantly stuck in obvious passing downs, New York will probably force a few turnovers.

RECAP: The public is all over New York, but I like the 49ers. This game means very little to the Giants if you think about it, since they’re two up in their crappy division and coming off an emotional victory at New England. San Francisco, meanwhile, is out to prove that it’s for real.

The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.

This game means much more to the 49ers, who want to make a statement. The Giants are two up in their division.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Everyone is on the Giants bandwagon following their victory at New England.

Percentage of money on New York: 73% (62,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Giants are 30-15 ATS on the road since 2006.

Opening Line: 49ers -3.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Partly sunny, 57 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 10 NFL Pick: 49ers 23, Giants 16
49ers -3.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
49ers 27, Giants 20

New England Patriots (5-3) at New York Jets (5-3)
Line: Jets by 2. Total: 47.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Patriots -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Patriots -3.

Sunday, Nov. 13, 8:20 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

If you’ve been following my 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings this summer and you’re wondering which players to start, I’ve got you covered. You can check out my Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em page (will be posted tonight) as well as my Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings, which will be updated by Wednesday afternoon each week.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Were you surprised to see the Patriots completely blank the Giants in the first half of Sunday’s game? I was – until I remembered that Jerod Mayo was playing a full game for the first time since Week 3.

Mayo’s an unbelieve talent. His return to the lineup doesn’t fix everything that’s wrong with the Patriots or anything, but it certainly helps. Blanking the Giants in 30 minutes of action is no simple feat.

With that in mind, anyone who thinks the Jets are going to score at will is probably mistaken. Hell, Mark Sanchez couldn’t even put more than 21 points on the board against them – and that was with Nick Mangold starting at center.

Mew York was able to run the ball well (149 rushing yards) in that previous meeting, but with Mayo back, I don’t expect that number to be nearly as high.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: If I were a Patriot fan, I might be concerned about Tom Brady. The Golden Boy has looked like a shell of his former self the past two weeks, committing three turnovers and maintaining a meager YPA of 6.4, down from his season average of 7.9.

It only gets more difficult against the Jets, right? Well, not really. Brady went 24-of-33 for 321 yards, one touchdown and an interception on Oct. 9 versus Rex Ryan’s squad. I really don’t think much has changed in five weeks.

Brady will rebound because, well, he’s freaking Tom Brady. He’s pretty familiar with all of Rex Ryan’s tricks and schemes, so I don’t know what Ryan could possibly throw at Brady to make him struggle for the third week in a row.

RECAP: Much earlier, I said I’d have a special treat for you this week. You may have thought it was my conversation with Farim. Well, that was only half of it. The other half is my October NFL Pick of the Month.

Yes, October. I flipped my Hooters calendar. I didn’t have a Pick of the Month in October, so this will be it.

Here’s why I absolutely love the Patriots:

1. “The Patriots are done.” “New England is in deep trouble.” “The Bill Belichick era is over.” These are things I’ve heard on ESPN in the past 48 hours. And it was music to my ears because the Patriots are at their best when everyone counts them out. It’s been said before, it’s being said now, and it’ll be said in the future that Brady and Belichick are finished. And I’ve won money with New England every time this has happened.

2. Tying into that, Brady is an underdog. Really? The Golden Boy is 14-7 against the spread when getting points since 2003.

3. In terms of losing:

3a. In the Brady-Belichick era, the Patriots are 5-2 straight up following two or more consecutive losses. They were underdogs three times, including +12 against the Colts in 2001, and won outright on all three occasions.

3b. As for one loss, Brady is 15-7 against the spread off a defeat since 2003. Belichick, meanwhile, is 7-1 against the spread as an underdog after losing as a favorite.

4. There are two other trends that support the Patriots:

4a. Underdogs coming off a loss as -7 or more, playing a team coming off a straight-up win are 51-32 against the spread since 1989.

4b. Teams playing a road divisional game after a non-divisional loss as a favorite are 47-28 against the spread since 2002.

5. Let’s talk about the point spread for a second. The Patriots were -8 over the Jets at home back in Week 5 without their best defensive player not named Vince Wilfork. Now that New York is the host, you have to slide the line six points over, so New England should be -2.

However, the Jets are -2. We’re getting four points of line value even without factoring in Mayo. That’s how much the public is overreacting to New England’s two losses.

6. Speaking of Mayo, I don’t think anyone can understate what his presence means to New England’s struggling defense. The Patriots shut out the Giants in the first half last week. That’s huge. So, I expect the stop unit to play better, meaning the only “concern” is Brady.

And as I mentioned earlier, Brady and his head coach are at their best when their back is against the wall.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Early lean on the underdog Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 71% (68,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 14 of the last 18 meetings.

History: Home Team has won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Patriots are 36-20 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Tom Brady is 126-43 as a starter (98-67 ATS).

Tom Brady is 23-11 ATS off a loss.

Tom Brady is 15-7 ATS off a loss since 2003.

Tom Brady is 14-7 ATS as an underdog since 2003.

Bill Belichick is 7-1 ATS as an underdog after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Clear, 51 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Patriots 27, Jets 17
Patriots +2 (7 Units – October NFL Pick of the Month) — Correct; +$700
Under 47.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 37, Jets 16

Minnesota Vikings (2-6) at Green Bay Packers (8-0)
Line: Packers by 12.5. Total: 49.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Packers -14.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Packers -14.
Monday, Nov. 14, 8:30 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Packers.

It’s Monday Night Football, but we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Don Tollefson and Herm Edwards, and inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen. Here’s what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Green Bay, home of the evil Packers who defeated my Eagles in the playoffs last year. Guys, it’s obvious the Packers cheated. The only question is how. Emmitt, have you any ideas?

Emmitt: Mike, there is an old sayin’ that go, cheater never prospect. That mean that the cheater who cheat in the game do not become a draft prospect. If the Packer cheat like you sayin’ they does, they will never become draft prospect in the NFL Draft.

Reilly: They’re already in the league though, Emmitt. That makes no sense. Anyone else have any ideas?

Herm: They didn’t cheat! They didn’t take advantage! They didn’t fool! They didn’t trick! Everything’s honest! Everything’s fair! Everything’s good! Everything’s kosher! Everything! Uhh… everything! Uhh…

Reilly: Herm, I’m going to hire someone to kick your a** because you’re a stupid idiot. Anyone with a brain have any ideas?

Tollefson: Perhaps the Packers hired prostitutes to seduce the Eagles right before kickoff. That’s what I would have done. Of course, I would have made sure these women were also good at cooking and cleaning, because women who can’t cook or clean might as well jump off a mountain.

Reilly: Shut up, idiot! My Eagles are good guys and would never have sex with anyone – especially prostitutes!

Millen: When I look at the Eagles and how they played the Packers in the playoffs last year, one thing is very apparent to me. I noticed that several Eagles were playing as if they had fresh kielbasa up their 100-percent USDA manhood. I’ve had plenty of experience dealing with men who have had fresh kielbasa up the anus, and let me tell you, Kevin, it really slows down their game. What’s good in the hotel room isn’t necessarily good for the football field.

Reilly: Ugh, how many more weeks am I going to have to deal with this kielbasa nonsense?

Millen: Nonsense!? How dare you, sir!?

Reilly: Here’s how the Packers cheated: They used steroids. Lots of steroids. And then they kidnapped all the Eagles’ girlfriends and wives, and threatened to beat them up with their new steroid super powers! But these steroids will come back to haunt them in the future when they have medical problems! Ha!

Emmitt: Mike, that is exactly what I was tryin’ to says when I say that cheetahs never prospect.

Reilly: Emmitt, you are wise beyond your years. We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Didn’t these teams play yesterday? I hate when the NFL stacks two divisional matchups pretty much back-to-back. They did this with Tampa-New Orleans. It’s stupid.

At any rate, the Packers will score in the high 30s or 40s like they always do. The Vikings have a good stop unit, led by Defensive Player of the Year candidate Jared Allen, but there’s no stopping Aaron Rodgers right now. The throws he’s making are sick, and when there’s nothing there, he can just take off for a 20-yard gain. He’s just playing on a different level than any other quarterback right now.

What Minnesota has to do is stop the run because it couldn’t do that last time. The Packers had the ball with a few minutes remaining, and they were able to run out the clock with James Starks ripping off big chunks of yardage and moving the chains.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The prior meeting between these two squads was Christian Ponder’s first start. He caught the Packers off-guard with a 78-yard bomb to Michael Jenkins to open things up, thanks to a blown coverage. Ponder would spend the rest of the afternoon converting third downs and keeping the ball away from Rodgers.

It’ll be interesting to see what sort of adjustments Dom Capers makes. He’ll show Ponder some new looks, but it may not matter because Green Bay’s secondary has been shredded this year. The Packers rank 26th against the pass in terms of YPA (7.9).

Stopping Adrian Peterson will also be a problem. The Vikings rushed for 187 yards on 27 carries the first time these teams clashed. Establishing Peterson once again will obviously make things really easy for Ponder.

RECAP: I know I’ve made it sound like I’m taking the points, but I’m not. I like Green Bay for a couple of units.

First of all, a trend I brought up before applies here: Road underdogs with a week off following a win are 32-48 against the spread since 1990.

Second, and more prominently, I just want to bet on Rodgers. He’s 29-14 against the spread since 2009. All he does is cover.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
Action on the Packers – but not nearly as much as I thought.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 60% (84,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Packers have won the last 3 meetings.

Aaron Rodgers is 29-14 ATS since 2009.

Opening Line: Packers -14.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 41 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Packers 38, Vikings 20
Packers -12.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 49.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Packers 45, Vikings 7

Week 10 NFL Picks – Early Games
Raiders at Chargers, Redskins at Dolphins, Rams at Browns, Bills at Cowboys, Broncos at Chiefs, Cardinals at Eagles, Titans at Panthers, Steelers at Bengals, Texans at Buccaneers, Saints at Falcons, Jaguars at Colts

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Moneyline underdog: Bengals +175 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline underdog: Buccaneers +170 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Teaser: Ravens -1, Patriots +8 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)