NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2011): 5-7-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2011): 4-8-1 (-$820)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2011): 3-10 (-$1,145)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2011): 7-7 (+$695)

NFL Picks (2011): 67-71-7 (-$3,455)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 14, 5:20 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games

Oakland Raiders (4-4) at San Diego Chargers (4-4)
Line: Chargers by 7. Total: 47.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Chargers -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Chargers -7.
Thursday, Nov. 10, 8:20 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Chargers.

Week 9 Recap: I was glad to finally have a winning week. I only have two things to complain about:

Frontdoor Covers: I don’t know if there’s any way to quickly look this up, but I think we’ve already hit the record for field goals in the final minute by the favorite to cover the spread in a single season. This happened in the Buccaneers-Saints game Sunday, and the 49ers-Browns and Jaguars-Texans contests the week before. I’m pretty sure the Patriots did this to two opponents as well, and I think New Orleans covered against Houston this way back in September.

I’m not going to whine about losing my Bucs pick this way because I did benefit from the 49ers and Patriots (against the Jets) doing this, but it’s still really weird to see, and I hate how it’s skewing results for future reference.

Special Teams: I will whine about this, however. I was so excited to get a special teams touchdown go my way (Denver at Oakland), but Patrick Peterson robbed me of my happiness in that ridiculous Arizona cover over St. Louis.

For those keeping track (anyone besides me?) that’s 13 of 15 special teams scores that have gone against me in multi-unit selections.

At any rate, I have a lot of content this week, including my thoughts on the Penn State scandal. I’ll also have a special treat for you toward the end of my Week 10 NFL picks.

I’ll be posting these NFL Picks throughout the day. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: It can’t really be a surprise that the Raiders are struggling offensively. In a span of a few weeks, they lost Darren McFadden to a nagging injury and gained Carson Palmer, who just isn’t that good anymore.

McFadden is once again expected to sit out, so Oakland will lack explosion against this San Diego defense. Michael Bush is a quality substitute though, and the Chargers are 18th versus the run, giving up 4.3 YPC to opposing backs.

The Raiders could also have some success moving the chains aerially because the Chargers have struggled versus the pass the past two weeks. Matt Cassel was sharp against them on a Monday night, while Aaron Rodgers pretty much scored at will.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Another injury that has really impacted the Raiders has been Rolando McClain’s bum ankle. McClain is an extremely talented middle linebacker, so it’s no coincidence that Oakland has been trampled in the ground game without McClain in the middle of the defense.

McClain was active Sunday, but didn’t play. Just four days later, his availability will once again be in question. If he doesn’t suit up (or if he does and isn’t 100 percent), the Chargers will be able to pound the rock successfully with Mike Tolbert and perhaps Ryan Mathews.

The Chargers will need Tolbert and Mathews to run well because Philip Rivers is clearly injured, despite his denials. He’s tossing picks and overthrowing open receivers. There’s no reason to think that’s going to change on a short work week.

RECAP: The rule for Thursday games is that you take the host as long as they’re a quality team. The Chargers are underachievers, but they’re still a quality team. Besides, the Raiders have been a sinking ship since that emotional Al Davis victory at Houston.

I’m also going with half a unit on the Under, since 48.5 is way too much for a Thursday night game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

No surprise that the public is all over the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 75% (59,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Chargers have won 13 of the last 15 meetings (Raiders 4-0 ATS last 4).

Chargers are 13-9 ATS in November home games since 2001.

Opening Line: Chargers -7.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Chargers 26, Raiders 13
Chargers -7 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 47.5 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Raiders 24, Chargers 17

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-2)
Line: Steelers by 4.5. Total: 40.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Steelers -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Steelers -3.
Sunday, Nov. 13, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

I know you’re going to be disappointed, but I don’t have any hate mail for you this week because my picks did pretty well. However, I do have a conspiracy theory e-mail for you that I forgot to post last week:

If you couldn’t tell, I was kidding. Or was I!? Dun, dun DUNNNN!!!

Vegas Recap: Vegas is getting absolutely killed this year. I’ve never seen anything like this. If it keeps getting worse, sportsbooks may have to close down.

Last week, the house won with only the Dolphins, Seahawks and Ravens. Six highly bet teams, meanwhile, lost Vegas money: Falcons, Saints, Texans, 49ers, Bengals and Packers.

I’ll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I’ll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Andy Dalton continues to amaze. He’s maintained a 12:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a YPA of 7-plus if you throw out a Week 3 outlier against the 49ers. Coming back from down 17-7 on the road against a desperate Tennessee team was no simple feat either.

This is going to be a tough test for the second-round rookie, however. The Steelers have a great pass rush with James Harrison healthy again, and you better believe that Dick LeBeau is going to throw the kitchen sink at Dalton. It’ll be interesting to see how the TCU product responds.

Dalton can at least be optimistic that the Steelers will probably be missing LaMarr Woodley and James Farrior again. Baltimore had some success running the ball against Pittsburgh on Sunday night, so the Bengals might be able to establish Cedric Benson.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Dalton has been a big reason for Cincinnati’s 6-2 record. The defense has been another prominent factor. The Bengals rank third against the run; no team has gained more than 85 rushing yards against them since Week 2. It’s safe to say that Rashard Mendenhall won’t be doing much.

Cincinnati is also solid versus the pass, ranking 10th against it in terms of YPA (6.7). The team also has 20 sacks on the year. It’s a shame that they aren’t getting the Steelers earlier in the season when they struggled to protect Ben Roethlisberger. With Max Starks back, Big Ben has been shielded pretty well. Pittsburgh has surrendered two or fewer sacks in four of its previous five games.

I brought up the Bengals’ success versus aerial attacks, but there may not be much validity to that ranking. Aside from Ryan Fitzpatrick, they’ve battled the following quarterbacks this year: Colt McCoy, Kyle Orton, Alex Smith, Blaine Gabbert, Curtis Painter, Tarvaris Jackson and Matt Hasselbeck. Not exactly a future Hall of Fame class.

RECAP: I wouldn’t bet this game, but I’m going to side with the Bengals. I don’t think the Steelers are six points better than them. I’m also going to try to fade the public as much as possible this week.

UNIT CHANGE: I’m adding a unit to this game because this spread is getting out of control. The Steelers are not 7.5 points better than the Bengals.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

No respect for the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 76% (85,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Steelers have won 7 of the last 9 meetings.

Ben Roethlisberger is 25-14 ATS vs. the AFC North.

Opening Line: Steelers -3.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 61 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Steelers 17, Bengals 16
Bengals +4.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Steelers 24, Bengals 17

Denver Broncos (3-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-4)
Line: Chiefs by 3. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Chiefs -4.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Chiefs -4.
Sunday, Nov. 13, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. My picks have sucked so bad that a few people who hate me have created a Web site called WalterFootballSucks.com.

I feel honored. And also aroused by the Picks from Chicks section.

2. You might feel cheated that I didn’t get to post any hate mail this week. Well, here’s a different sort of e-mail:

Wow, that question was so quick that I didn’t even see it.

3. If you haven’t seen it yet, Forbes has published a list of the 10 Most Hated Players in the NFL. No surprise who’s No. 1.

Some thoughts about this:

– Why is Plaxico Burress second? He’s an idiot who shot himself in the foot. He never did anyone else any harm.

– Carson Palmer should be higher. “Every male’s dream is to play football professionally, but I’m not going to do that anymore because I have $80 million gold in the bank nyah nyah nyah!” Jerk.

– Why is Jeremy Shockey on this list? He’s pretty irrelevant.

– This Dan Hanzus writer wrote one of the dumbest lines in the history of journalism: “Michael Vick could become the NFL’s version of Mother Teresa…”

Yeah, because Mother Teresa would drown dogs and take bets on how long they’d last.

It’s amazing to me that clueless people like Hanzus don’t understand that people despise QB Dog Killer because of the dog torture; not the dog fighting. That’s why his nickname is QB Dog Killer on this Web site; not QB Dog Fighter.

DENVER OFFENSE: ~~Johnny Lawrence~~ John Fox and ~~John Kreese~~ John Elway hate Tim Tebow’s guts, often desiring to ~~beat him up~~ bench him after practice. I was pleased, however, to see Fox finally tailor Denver’s offense to fit Tebow’s skill set. Throw in the fact that Willis McGahee returned from injury, and it was no surprise that Denver beat Oakland.

The Chiefs have been soft against the run lately, so they could also be in trouble. They’ve surrendered at least 100 rushing yards to their previous three opponents, all of whom rushed the ball 24 times or fewer.

I’m expecting a big game from Willis McGahee, who will once again open things up for Tim Tebow, both on the ground and through the air. Kansas City made Matt Moore look like a stud last week, so why can’t Tebow duplicate what the Miami quarterback was able to do?

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I’d say the Broncos have the advantage here as well. Jonathan Baldwin is still unproven, so the Chiefs only have one play-maker on offense with Jamaal Charles out for the year. That would be Dwayne Bowe. Unfortunately for Bowe, he’ll have to go up against Champ Bailey on Sunday.

The ground game won’t work for the Chiefs either. They don’t really run the ball very well in the first place, and Denver is a respectable 13th versus the rush. In other words, Jackie Battle belongs on your fantasy bench.

Kansas City still could have a bit of success moving the chains by attacking downfield against the Broncos’ other defensive backs. Denver is still miserable against the pass (30th; 8.3 YPA) despite what Bailey does, so Steve Breaston and Jonathan Baldwin will need to step up.

RECAP: I like the Broncos a bit. They’re playing better football right now, and I feel like the Chiefs exerted way too much energy in that fluky Monday night victory over the Chargers. I don’t think they’ll win more than two games the rest of the way.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 61% (56,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Home Team has won 16 of the last 20 meetings.

Chiefs are 13-23 ATS at home since 2007.

Opening Line: Chiefs -3.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Partly sunny, 59 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Broncos 31, Chiefs 17
Broncos +3 +105 (2 Units) — Correct; +$210
Over 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Broncos 17, Chiefs 10

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) at Indianapolis Colts (0-9)
Line: Jaguars by 3. Total: 37.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Jaguars -1.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Jaguars -3.
Sunday, Nov. 13, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Jaguars.

My thoughts on the Penn State scandal:

As a Penn State fan and alumnus, I’m pretty disgusted by everything.

If you haven’t heard, court documents indicate that former defensive coordinator Jerry Sandusky was banging a 10-year-old boy anally in the showers when a grad assistant saw him. The grad assistant reported this to Joe Paterno later, who then went directly to athletic director Tim Curley, who then went to Penn State president Graham Cocker Spanier.

Let’s discuss all parties involved:

Jerry Sandusky: Nothing has been proven yet, but the evidence is pretty stacked against him. If, in fact, he did even an eighth of what he’s being accused of (molesting one kid instead of eight), then he needs to be locked away in prison or a mental hospital for the rest of his life.

If he did do everything found in the court docs, then everyone who allowed him to parade around, conduct NAMBLA meetings and have his way with little boys should be ashamed of themselves.

The ridiculous thing is that this was all covered up because of money. Cocker Spanier and his goons didn’t want the football dollars to stop coming in, so they did their best to hide all of this. If they had just come forward right away, everything would have been fine for the most part. I don’t think Penn State would have lost much. Now, it appears as though my school is a billion times worse off.

Oh, and by the way, I will be calling Sandusky “Coach Boy Raper” if he’s found guilty.

Tim Curley and Gary Schultz: People who believe that these (alleged) scumbags should go to prison for not going to police with everything might be disappointed. My senior editor, who is one of the smartest and knowledgeable people I know, doesn’t think Curley and Schultz will be going to prison for perjury:

“It smells to me that the attorney general is trying to intimidate them so they’ll roll on Sandusky – since Schultz’s attorney claims the failure to report’s statute of limitations expired in 2004.”

I have no idea why the statue of limitations on something like this would expire in only 10 years, but whatever. Our legal system allowed O.J. Simpson to walk free, so it’s obviously broken. It’s a damn shame.

Graham Cocker Spanier: This guy has had to go for years. Click the above link to read how much of a douche he is. I’ll have more about him in my Jerks of the College Years book.

Joe Paterno: I’m going to have a huge write-up on Joe Paterno and Mike McQueary in my Jerks of the Week page come Monday. I’ll have some interesting facts and quotes about the two men. Meanwhile, check out my Emmitt on the Brink, where the Philadelphia Eagles hire Jerry Sandusky, who then blows the whistle on Michael Vick.

Matt Millen: The Sandusky incident is only the second-most embarrassing incident to happen to Penn State football. The first is Matt Millen.

Despite the news coming out Saturday, Millen praised the Penn State football program for being clean and upstanding that very day. Oops.

@JoshRIVALS tweeted: “Wonder if Millen has a clue what’s gone down. Just slobbered all over Penn State.”

I replied (@walterfootball): “Has Millen ever had a clue about anything?”

I mean, besides kielbasas and 100-percent USDA Men, of course.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Blaine Gabbert is favored on the road. I can’t get over this. Blaine freaking Gabbert is favored on the road. And I don’t disagree with the spread. That’s how terrible the Colts are.

Of course, Gabbert is awful as well. Indianapolis’ cornerbacks are dreadful, but Gabbert isn’t good enough to take advantage of this. Nor does he have the downfield weapons to do so. Jacksonville’s prized signing, Mike Sims-Walker, is out for the year, leaving Mike Thomas, Jason Hill, Cecil Shorts and a disinterested Marcedes Lewis to catch passes from a skittish rookie.

Gabbert may not matter though because of Maurice Jones-Drew. It’s well documented how poorly the Colts fare against the run, so it’ll be a surprise if Jones-Drew doesn’t approach 150 rushing yards.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: It’s never a good sign when your starting quarterback and running back are benched in the same game. But that’s exactly what happened against the Falcons this past Sunday. Delone Carter was yanked after fumbling on the second play, while Curtis Painter (or Cristis Prainter, depending on how illiterate you are) was pulled in favor of Dan Orlovsky in the final period.

And that was against the Falcons, who suck defensively. Atlanta was ranked the mid-20s in terms of stopping the pass prior to last weekend. The Jaguars are seventh (6.5 YPA). They destroyed Joe Flacco several Monday nights ago, and they were able to put the clamps on Matt Schaub for the most part prior to the bye. Painter/Prainter won’t be a problem.

Jacksonville is also ranked in the top 10 in terms of stopping the run (3.9 YPC), so don’t expect much from any of Indianapolis’ running backs.

RECAP: I refuse to lay points on the road with Gabbert. I just can’t do it. I’m not going to bet on the Colts either, but I would take them in some sort of pool. Gabbert stinks.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Why would anyone bet on the Colts right now?

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 67% (44,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: 15 of the last 18 meetings decided by 8 points or fewer (Colts 13-5).

Opening Line: Jaguars -3.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: Dome.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Colts 17, Jaguars 16
Colts +3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 37.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jaguars 17, Colts 3

Buffalo Bills (5-3) at Dallas Cowboys (4-4)
Line: Cowboys by 5.5. Total: 48.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Cowboys -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Cowboys -4.
Sunday, Nov. 13, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

Six weeks ago, I showed you the following G-chat messages from someone who called himself “The Real John.” I also made fun of him:

I don’t know what’s more disturbing – the fact that TheRealJohn is “bedding” (a.k.a. having sexy time) with American futbol, or that he actually has “20K” to bet despite the fact that he doesn’t know how to spell “betting” or “Walter” or “sure.”

The Real John didn’t take too kindly to this. He replied with more incoherent messages:

I’ve since determined that The Real John is betting with Zimbabwe dollars (30,000 Zimbabwe dollars equals $1 U.S.) and that he bangs deformed Asian chicks with unibrows.

At any rate, I didn’t receive messages from The Real John a week ago, so I was a bit concerned that he ran out of Zimbabwe dollars and had to eat worms. Fortunately, The Real John sent me a few messages several days ago:

What’s up with that final message? I think he sent it to the wrong person. He was obviously talking to some girl. Fortunately, I was able to secure a picture of her:

The shirt she’s wearing is pretty accurate. A million Zimbabwe dollars isn’t worth much, so The Real John still can’t really afford her.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Bills are beginning to capsize. This has nothing to do with the talent on their current roster; rather the guy they’re missing in the middle of their defense. Buffalo has struggled since Pro Bowl nose tackle Kyle Williams went out with a foot injury. Mark Sanchez of all quarterbacks looked like a stud against them.

If Sanchez can look that good, imagine what Tony Romo will be able to do. Romo is finally healed from that rib injury he suffered in Week 2, and he was really sharp as a result last week. He won’t have Miles Austin-Jones in this contest, but Laurent Robinson has proven himself as a capable replacement.

DeMarco Murray should have a huge outing. Buffalo is just 22nd versus the rush, giving up 4.5 YPC.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Ryan Fitzpatrick was awful Sunday, going just 4-of-12 for 24 yards and two interceptions in the first half and picking up only three first downs in the opening two-and-a-half quarters. The Jets, however, have the ability to make all non-elite quarterbacks look bad.

The Cowboys are obviously not on that level. They aren’t terrible against the pass, but they’ve really struggled to stop the run since losing stud linebacker Sean Lee to injury.

Like Murray, Fred Jackson will go off. This will make life much easier for Fitzpatrick, who will need the extra help until left tackle Demetrius Bell can return to the lineup. Fortunately for the Harvard man, Steve Johnson won’t be blanketed by Darrelle Revis this week.

RECAP: I don’t have a good read on this game. Both teams are overrated right now because they’re missing crucial defensive players. With a gun to my head, I would take the Cowboys because of the betting action. Vegas is going to have to slaughter the public one of these weeks.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

The Bills are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 74% (80,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Cowboys -5.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Dome.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Cowboys 31, Bills 24
Cowboys -5.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cowboys 44, Bills 7
MISSING

Houston Texans (6-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4)
Line: Texans by 4. Total: 45.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Buccaneers -2.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Buccaneers -1.

Sunday, Nov. 13, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Texans.

If you’ve been following this site, you know that I make a habit of responding to my spam mails. I spent the early part of this season parading around as Mufasa Snow, the supposed bastard son of Saddam Hussein.

Time to go with another personality:

You have won the Facebook Award. For claims, email us at: [email protected]

Facebook Award! I’ve always dreamed of winning the Facebook Award! I had to reply immediately.

HOOORAY!!!! I’LL ALERT THE LOCAL MEDIA! WHAT DID I WIN WHAT DID I WIN!!??!?!

It took a few days, but this person finally e-mailed me back.

Dear Account User,

You have been selected as a winner of a lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP) in cash credited to WINNING REF NO: FACEBOOK/732ZC53CA/2011. Your Ref Number falls within our European booklet representative’s office in our ongoing 2011 End Of Year FACEBOOK Online Award.

For claims, you are to contact the Accounts Department of our Affiliated/Accredited paying Bank, Natwest Bank Plc with the contact details below along with your WINNING REF NO.

FILL OUT THE VERIFICATION AND FUNDS RELEASE FORM.
1. FULL NAMES: _____ 2.ADDRESS:_______ 3.CITY:______
4. STATE: ______ 5.POSTCODE_______ 6.COUNTRY______
7. SEX: ______ 8.AGE:________ 9.OCCUPATION:______
10. TELEPHONE/MOBILE NUMBERS: _____ 11.FAX:________

NOTE: – WINNING REF NO must be kept confidential from the general public to avoid impersonation or double claim of winning, as we will not be liable for any laxity on the part of any online winner. – Winners are also advised to place a call to the paying bank for proper confirmation of winnings.

Announcer,
Richard M. Held.

I’m running out of Game of Thrones-related ideas, so why not use something from my awesome Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Bisexual Heritage Month entry?

Richard Held,

Hello, my name is Matthew Millen Kim. I won your Facebook contest. What a great month and a half this has been. First, I got to celebrate Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Bisexual Heritage Month, and now I won 750,000.00 GBP.

I’m going to assume GBP stands for Green Bay Packers. I would love 750,000.00 Green Bay Packers. Heck, one makes me horny.

1. FULL NAMES: _Matthew Millen Kim____ 2.ADDRESS:__2000 Brush St_____ 3.CITY:__Detroit___
4. STATE: __MI____ 5.POSTCODE___48226____ 6.COUNTRY___USA___
7. SEX: __B____ 8.AGE:____53____ 9.OCCUPATION:__Kielbasa Stuffer____
10. TELEPHONE/MOBILE NUMBERS: __(313) 262-2000___ 11.FAX:___(313) 262-2000_____

Before you enter in my information, is it OK if I only use Facebook for lewd activities like downloading pictures of 100-percent USDA Men and Photoshopping kielbasas in their rear end?

Thanks,

Matthew Millen Kim

Oh, and in case you were wondering, the address and phone number I gave to them belongs to Ford Field. I wish I could see the look on the Ford Field employees when someone calls up asking for a “Matthew Millen Kim.”

HOUSTON OFFENSE: There’s a chance Andre Johnson could play this week. If he doesn’t – which looks to be the case as of this writing – then everything will be fair. The Texans won’t have their best offensive player, while the Buccaneers will be missing their top defender Gerald McCoy, who is done for the year with torn biceps.

Tampa, as a result, has been anemic against the run. Three of its previous four opponents have rushed for at least 175 rushing yards. That bodes well for the Texans, who saw both Arian Foster and Ben Tate eclipse the century plateau last week.

Matt Schaub once again won’t have to do much. He’ll rely on Foster and Tate to pick up huge chunks of yardage, which will set him up in third-and-short situations. He won’t have to worry much about a Tampa pass rush that has just two sacks in its past four games.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: While the Buccaneers have struggled to defend the run, the Texans have excelled against it. Each of their previous opponents has been limited to 70 rushing yards or fewer – and that includes Maurice Jones-Drew back in Week 8.

LeGarrette Blount won’t get much on the ground, putting most of the burden on Joshy-Woshy Twinkle-Toes Butter Pudding Pop Freeman, who has really had issues with decision-making this season. It doesn’t help that he lacks play-makers at his disposal besides Mike Williams, if you even want to call him that amid his sophomore slump.

If Freeman does indeed have to operate out of third-and-long situations, the Texans should be able to put some pressure on him. Mario Williams has been out for a while, but talented second-round rookie Brooks Reed is starting to come on. He had two sacks last week; four in his past three games.

RECAP: Everything I’ve written thus far has been anti-Tampa Bay, but I’m actually siding with them. If you scroll down, you’ll see that the double-star game edges aren’t too effective.

So, why do I like the Bucs? Five reasons:

1. This game means very little to Houston. The Texans are up by two games in the AFC South, and it doesn’t look like the collapsing Titans are going to make a run. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have to win this contest to stay alive in the NFC South race.

2. This spread is ridiculous. Think about it for a second. Move this line over three to neutral and another three to Houston, and the Texans would be -9 over Tampa at home. Weren’t they just -10.5 over Cleveland? So the Buccaneers are just 1.5 points better than the stinky Browns? I don’t agree with that at all.

3. The public is all over the Texans, yet the spread hasn’t really moved (only the juice).

4. Road favorites coming off standard rest after two consecutive wins as home favorites are just 14-41 against the spread since 1995.

5. Whom have the Texans beaten to deserve such aplomb? They slaughtered the Browns and Titans recently, but they struggled to put the Jaguars away. They also lost by 15 to Baltimore. The week before that, they suffered a defeat to the Raiders at home. Can you say overrated?

The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.

This game doesn’t really mean much to the Texans.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Barely anyone likes Tampa, which is hardly a surprise.

Percentage of money on Houston: 81% (69,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Texans are 19-31 ATS after a win (13-15 since 2007).

Texans are 3-5 ATS as road favorites in franchise history.

Gary Kubiak is 3-1 ATS going into a bye.

Buccaneers are 2-7 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Buccaneers are 5-14 ATS at home under Raheem Morris.

Opening Line: Texans -3.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Sunny, 77 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 27, Texans 24
Buccaneers +4 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Texans 37, Buccaneers 9

Tennessee Titans (4-4) at Carolina Panthers (2-6)
Line: Panthers by 3.5. Total: 47.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Panthers -2.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Panthers -3.
Sunday, Nov. 13, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Panthers.

Video of the Week: A few weeks ago, I bragged about buying the first season of Hey Dude on DVD. Well, if you’ve never seen the show, here’s what your missing. The moral of the story? When an older dude invites you to go out drinking with his buds, don’t be a square and say, “I don’t want to fry my brain cells.” Just go out, have a few drinks and have a good time. And please, for the love of God, try to bang his hot, younger sister.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: There really hasn’t been much of an offense per se since Kenny Britt went down with a season-ending injury back in Week 3. Britt’s absence has really condensed Tennessee’s scoring attack, and it doesn’t help that Chris Johnson is stealing money from owner Bud Adams.

I don’t get why everyone is so optimistic after Johnson’s performance last week. I wasn’t impressed at all. He had a run of 20 yards and a reception of 21 yards, but that was it. He spent the rest of the afternoon dancing around the line of scrimmage and failing to break tackles like he has all year.

The CJ2K of old would have been set up for a big performance against the Panthers, who rank 26th against the run (5.0 YPC). However, CJ20 has already failed to capitalize on easy matchups against the Colts and Browns, so there’s no reason to believe that he’ll succeed Sunday. If so, Hasselbeck will continue to struggle.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Cam Newton, meanwhile, has done anything but struggle. In fact, he’s the reason that this Panther squad isn’t even worse than the Colts.

The Titans began the year well defensively, but have surrendered an average of 268 passing yards to their previous five opponents. The reason for this is a lacking pass rush that has just four sacks since Week 5. Given Newton’s mobility, Tennessee will be fortunate to bring him down once.

Carolina’s rushing attack has improved in recent weeks, thanks in part to Ron Rivera’s decision to utilize Jonathan Stewart more than DeAngelo Williams. Opponents have gashed Tennessee’s stop unit to the tune of 145 rushing yards per contest dating back to Week 5.

RECAP: This is one situation where I’ll be going with the public. The Panthers are the better team and should be favored by more than three. Besides, home favorites coming off a bye against non-divisional opponents are 42-23 against the spread since 2002.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
This seems to easy? All Cam Newton has to do is win by three?

Percentage of money on Carolina: 60% (21,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Cam Newton is 5-2 ATS.

Panthers are 15-25 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 or more since 2001.

Panthers are 28-39 ATS at home since 2003.

Opening Line: Panthers -3.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Good weather.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Panthers 27, Titans 17
Panthers -3.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Titans 30, Panthers 3

Washington Redskins (3-5) at Miami Dolphins (1-7)
Line: Dolphins by 4. Total: 37.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Dolphins -2.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Dolphins -3.
Sunday, Nov. 13, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

Bo-Bo has retired, so as promised, here’s the NFL.com Fantasy Draft – Round 3:

Rich Eisen: Welcome back to Round 3. When we left off, Dennis Green strangled and killed Kurt Warner.

Dennis Green: And Steve f***ing Mariucci’s next if he keeps stealing players away from my f***ing team!

Rich Eisen: Shut up, Dennis. With Kurt gone, we need to bring in a new owner. No one else wanted to do our league besides Kara Henderson. Now, since Kara doesn’t have any players yet, we’ll let her pick three players now – right after I go, since it’s my turn.

Dennis Green: That’s bulls***, bulls***!

Rich Eisen: Shut up, Dennis. I’m going with Frank Gore. Kara, it’s your turn.

Kara Henderson: Thanks, Rich. I’d like to…

Charles Davis: *Dog whistle* reeeeoooowr!

Rich Eisen: Charles, that’s not…

Marshall Faulk: wsp s.e.x.y

Kara Henderson: It’s OK, Rich. I get this kind of treatment all the…

Brian Billick: Want a kiss?

Kara Henderson: No, I’m going to pick…

Jim Mora Jr.: Can you send me a pic of you naked and in a bikini?

Kara Henderson: Ugh. I’d like to take…

Matt Millen: Rich, this is stupid.

Rich Eisen: I agree. Can’t we treat a woman normally around here? Kara knows her football, guys.

Matt Millen: No, that’s not what I meant. Rich, I have lots of kielbasa here, and it’s ready to go up some 100-percent USDA men’s backside. Kara’s backside isn’t big enough to handle the load. And here’s what I mean by “handle the load…”

Rich Eisen: And here’s me not caring.

Matt Millen: And here’s what I mean by “handle the load.” You have a load that you want to unload into the backside of a 100-percent USDA man. Usually, it’s kielbasa, but sometimes your own manhood will suffice. But women are small and weak, and they can’t handle kielbasa or manhood in the rear end usually.

Rich Eisen: And I just vomited a little bit in my mouth. Let’s take a break while everyone stops swooning over Kara Henderson. Stay tuned next week for more of Round 3. This draft will never end.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: John Beck versus his former team? Who will win? Oh, the drama!

I’m sorry. I actually meant John Blegh. He stinks. He’s so skittish in the pocket that he settles for nothing but checkdowns. That’s why Roy Helu caught 14 passes last week. Beck is just too scared to look downfield – not that he has anyone reliable to throw to anyway.

The Dolphins are seventh versus the run (3.88 YPC), so Washington’s offense will be limited, as usual. I’d like to give you a more detailed analysis, but that’s pretty difficult, given that Washington’s quarterback is John Blegh.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Where the hell did that come from? Matt Moore looked like the second coming of Dan Marino at Arrowhead. His stats (17-of-23, 244 yards, 3 TDs) don’t even do him justice. He threw some really perfect, deep passes, which makes you wonder where this has been since the beginning of last season.

The Redskins only do one thing well, and that’s bring a strong pass rush. With that in mind, there’s some hope for Washington here, as Miami had surrendered 13 sacks in three games prior to last week’s victory. The Chiefs have Tamba Hali, but because there’s no second guy who can get to the quarterback, they don’t bring the same sort of pass rush that Washington can.

Luckily for the Dolphins, they should be able to establish Reggie Bush on the ground again. The Redskins have surrendered at least 116 rushing yards to their previous four opponents. This is perfect timing for Bush, who compiled 92 yards on just 13 carries this past weekend.

RECAP: I don’t think Miami deserves to be favored by four points over anyone, so I’m actually going to take the Redskins, who were fairly competitive with the 49ers if you take away all the fumbles they had. Also, it’s worth noting that road underdogs tend to fare well after four or more spread losses.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Miami: 53% (37,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

Dolphins are 4-9 ATS vs. NFC teams under Tony Sparano.

Tony Sparano is 0-7 ATS as a favorite coming off a SU win as an underdog.

Opening Line: Dolphins -4.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 78 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Redskins 20, Dolphins 19
Redskins +4 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 37.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Dolphins 20, Redskins 9

New Orleans Saints (6-3) at Atlanta Falcons (5-3)
Line: Pick. Total: 49.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Falcons -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Falcons -2.
Sunday, Nov. 13, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Saints.

As a reminder, get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2011 NFL Survivor Pool. There are now only 49 entries remaining from the 2,749 that started. People lost with the Raiders over the Broncos and Eagles over the Bears. The lesson, as always, don’t bet against good guys (Tim Tebow) and don’t bet on a**holes who drown dogs.

Also, you can create your own 2012 NFL Mock Draft. If it’s good and the write-ups make factual/logical sense, it can be featured in the 2012 NFL Mock Draft Database.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Based on what I’ve heard from the experts, Drew Brees is supposed to struggle in this game. The Saints apparently do not play well on the road because the natural elements affect their offense.

Only this game is in a dome as well. I know New Orleans lost to the Rams, but they didn’t take that game seriously. The Saints won in Atlanta last year, so I don’t see why they couldn’t prevail in the Georgia Dome again.

The Falcons were ranked in the mid-20s against the pass going into the previous weekend. That obviously improved because they beat up on Curtis Painter/Cristis Prainter, but they really don’t stand a chance against Brees. He just has too many weapons at his disposal, and unless the wind and/or cold weather are involved, there’s not really much that can stop him.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons should have success moving the chains and putting up points as well, though with a different method.

The Saints are pathetic in terms of stopping the run. They’re dead last against it, giving up 5.6 YPC on the year. Michael Turner, who picked up big chunks of yardage at will at Indianapolis, should be able to pick up where he left off.

Turner will set up Ryan with short-yardage situations, where he’ll undoubtedly hit Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez for big gains. Ryan will have to be careful with the football though. He tossed an ugly pick-six on Sunday, and could have been intercepted a few more times. He’s just not anywhere near Brees’ level. At least not yet anyway.

RECAP: The Saints are the better team, and they have the superior quarterback. With homefield advantage not playing a factor whatsoever – these teams split on the road last year – I’m going to side with New Orleans. But I don’t feel strongly about it to make any sort of wager.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
I’m surprised more people aren’t on the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 58% (62,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Saints have won 7 of the last 9 meetings.

Matt Ryan is 17-7 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Saints -1.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Saints 26, Falcons 23
Saints PK (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 49.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 26, Falcons 23

St. Louis Rams (1-7) at Cleveland Browns (3-5)
Line: Browns by 3. Total: 36.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Browns -3.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Browns -3.
Sunday, Nov. 13, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Rams.

If you didn’t see it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 4, Episode 9 has been posted – Jim Tressel and JaMarcus Russell in New England?

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: If you listened to the angry Browns rant I posted in my NFL Power Rankings page, you know what to expect this offense: Absolutely nothing.

Everything that ranter bellowed about is absolutely correct. This team has no play-makers. The Rams defensive players are being told, “You better cover the injured Ben Watson,” or “Watch out for Greg Little’s dropped passes.” Colt McCoy has no one to work with, and he’s not physically gifted in the first place. He’ll be running for his life from Chris Long and the Rams’ defensive front.

And then there’s Chris Ogbonnaya coming out of the backfield. Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty will be out once again, so Ogbonnaya, a practice-squad talent on most teams, will get the nod for the second week in a row. The Rams are 31st versus the rush (5.4 YPC), but Ogbonnaya poses no threat.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Sam Bradford really struggled last week. He overthrew a bunch of his receivers, and only managed to put 13 points on the board against a weak Arizona defense despite the fact that Steven Jackson eclipsed the century mark on the ground.

Bradford was coming back from injury though, and he didn’t have much time to work with Brandon Lloyd, so that’s a legitimate excuse. I expect Bradford to be better this week, though it doesn’t help that Pro Bowl cornerback Joe Haden will be draped all over Lloyd.

Jackson should have another great outing though. The Browns looked pathetic trying to tackle Arian Foster and Ben Tate last week, as the Texans rushed for a whopping 261 yards. Jackson’s great running will keep Cleveland’s decent pass rush (17 sacks) at bay.

RECAP: The Rams are my second-favorite play of the week for the following reasons:

1. The Browns blow. I know St. Louis isn’t very good either, but the team is two weeks removed from throttling the Saints. Cleveland, meanwhile, can’t score whatsoever without Hillis and Hardesty in the lineup.

2. Single-digit underdogs playing in their second consecutive road game off a loss have covered the spread at a 67-percent clip (103-51 ATS) over the past decade.

3. The Browns are in a bad spot themselves. Since 2002, home favorites after two consecutive road defeats are 32-45 against the spread.

4. There is a decent amount of action on the visitor, but the spread has dropped from -3 to -2.5, indicating that St. Louis might be a sharps’ play.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

A good lean on the visitor, which is not a shock.

Percentage of money on St. Louis: 67% (35,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Rams are 28-47 ATS in road games since 2001 (9-9 since 2009).

Rams are 19-31 ATS on grass since 2001.

Browns are 16-5 ATS after allowing 30 or more points since 2005.

Browns are 3-8 ATS as favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Browns -2.5.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: Cloudy, 59 degrees. HEAVY WINDS, 20 mph.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Rams 23, Browns 10
Rams +3 -115 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 36.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Rams 13, Browns 12

Arizona Cardinals (2-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-5)
Line: Eagles by 13. Total: 46.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Eagles -13.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Eagles -14.
Sunday, Nov. 13, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Eagles.

A friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Nov. 7, 2011 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are 1) Jerks of the New Gym Pool. 2) Thirty Dollar Man. 3) Man from the Future.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: I’d like to start with the Cardinals first – as opposed to just picking a team randomly – because Kevin Kolb’s status is the reason there’s no spread on this game as of this writing. Kolb is not expected to play though, per Jason La Canfora and Adam Schefter. This means that John Skelton will probably make his second start, which is unfortunate because it’ll ruin Kolb’s homecoming.

Skelton has a big arm, but he’s extremely raw. We all saw it last week when he took two safeties in a single quarter. He just doesn’t know what to do at times, and most of his throws are pretty erratic. Larry Fitzgerald didn’t even do much until a late touchdown this past Sunday.

The Eagles can’t stop the run whatsoever, but they may temporarily excel at it this weekend. That’s because Chris Wells is really playing hurt. Wells rushed for just 20 yards on 10 carries against St. Louis’ 31st-ranked ground defense. I don’t see Wells doing much here either, making life even more difficult for Skelton, who will have to deal with Nnamdi Asomugha, Asante Samuel and DRC (Doesn’t Really Care).

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: While Wells couldn’t do anything on the ground last week, Steven Jackson and the Rams rushed for 148 yards on 34 carries against the Cardinals. This obviously does not bode well for Arizona since it’ll have to deal with LeSean McCoy.

And then there’s the matter of the Cardinals defending DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Their cornerbacking corps is an abomination, so both wideouts could rebound from a poor Monday night effort.

The way to beat the Eagles, of course, is to confuse the hell out of QB Dog Killer. I don’t think the Cardinals have the type of defense that can do that, though it’s worth noting that they have seven sacks in the past two weeks.

RECAP: I can’t really post a precise pick yet because there’s no spread. I’ll probably be taking the Eagles for a couple of units though. They really need to win this game, and I can’t see Skelton and a banged-up Wells winning in an early start on the East Coast.

The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.
A must-win for the Eagles.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Action on the Eagles, but not too much.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 66% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Andy Reid is 13-7 ATS after Monday Night Football.

Eagles are 72-52 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Opening Line: Eagles -14.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Partly sunny, 60 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Eagles 27, Cardinals 6
Eagles -13 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
SURVIVOR PICK (7-2)
Cardinals 21, Eagles 17

Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games
Ravens at Seahawks, Giants at 49ers, Lions at Bears, Patriots at Jets, Vikings at Packers

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
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2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
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2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
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2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)