NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8, 2016

NFL Picks (Preseason 2016): 12-7-1 (+$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2016): 13-3 (+$1,735) full review
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2016): 9-7 (-$430) full review
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2016): 7-7-2 (+$880) full review
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2016): 7-8 (-$70) full review
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2016): 6-7-1 (+$115) full review
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2016): 7-7-1 (+$515) full review
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2016): 11-4 (+$1,560) full review

NFL Picks (2016): 72-50-5 (+$5,595)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 31, 6:40 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 8 NFL Picks – Late Games

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4) at Tennessee Titans (3-4)
Line: Titans by 3. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Titans -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Titans -3.
Thursday, Oct 27, 8:25 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

WEEK 7 RECAP: Things seemed bleak at times during Sunday afternoon. My top three picks – Chargers, Saints and Dolphins – were all down by double digits at some point, but they all managed to rally back and cover. Was I lucky? Perhaps, but that’s the beauty of taking underdogs, especially when you’re getting lots of points with great quarterbacks. They have a habit of making things close. The Dolphins spread, meanwhile, never made any sense to me. What had the Bills done to be favored by three on the road?

I went 11-4 (+$1,560) in Week 7. I lost two multi-unit picks. One was a dumb selection in Vikings -3 that I was foolish for making. The other, Rams +3, should’ve cashed, or at the worst, pushed. Los Angeles was better than the Giants, but it committed so many stupid blunders to ruin the cover.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Marcus Mariota has been maddeningly inconsistent thus far in his career. He has enjoyed some stellar games, but has struggled in others with his accuracy. That proved to be the case against the Colts this past week, as he barely completed half of his passes, posting a 6.3 YPA in the process against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. He’s still young, but he needs to be better each week.

The Jaguars will offer more resistance than the Colts did. They have some stellar players in their back seven, including Jalen Ramsey, though the rookie cornerback won’t be as much of a factor in this contest because the Titans don’t have a primary receiver who needs to be locked down. Mariota’s top option is Delanie Walker, who is banged up. That’s not good news regardless because Jacksonville’s stellar linebacking corps has limited tight ends this year.

The Titans, however, should be able to run the ball effectively. The Jaguars, already shaky against the rush, will be without run-plugger Roy Miller, who tore his Achilles last week. DeMarco Murray figures to eclipse the century mark once more.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars, conversely, will not be able to establish any sort of ground attack. What the Titans do best defensively is stop the run, but it’s not like Jacksonville had a stellar rushing unit anyway. Chris Ivory gained just four yards outside of one carry last week, while T.J. Yeldon isn’t getting enough work. Neither figures to show well in this divisional matchup.

This, of course, means Blake Bortles will have to do more to win this game, which is never a good thing. Bortles has regressed mentally, as he made countless mistakes against the Raiders. His struggles have also transferred over to Allen Robinson, who dropped two passes last week. There’s good news and bad news, however. The good news is that unlike the Raiders, whose secondary has improved markedly in recent weeks, the Titans can’t stop the pass whatsoever Their cornerbacks suck, and their safeties are even worse. Bortles will undoubtedly be guilty of a few errors, but he’ll post some early points as well, unlike last week.

The bad news is that Tennessee has the personnel to have a terrific pass rush. This wasn’t apparent against the Colts, but the Titans have a big mismatch with Brian Orakpo going up against Kelvin Beachum, who clearly isn’t 100 percent with a knee injury. Beachum didn’t even practice Monday, so that may not be a good sign for his availability for this game.

RECAP: This contest figures to be a defensive grinder, as both quarterbacks will try desperately to avoid mistakes. I have no interest in betting on this game, as the spread is pretty close to where it should be. However, the defensive nature of this matchup makes me lean toward the underdog. If this were Titans at Jaguars -3, I’d be on Tennessee, so that’s how close this is. My advice is to just stay away and do better things with your life on Thursday night rather than to watch this flaming pile of s*** of a game.

I’ll be posting NFL Picks all day Tuesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps pounced on the Jaguars on Thursday morning, bringing this line down from +3.5 to +3, and then to +3 -120. There’s a +3 -115 available at Bovada if you want to wager on this dreadful game. I’d rather have another root canal.

FINAL THOUGHTS: My strategy for Thursday night games is to pick the better team. That’s impossible here, as both teams seem to be about even. With that in mind, this line is a bit too high. The Titans deserve a point at most for being at home, so this should be Tennessee -1. However, I can’t bring myself to bet the Jaguars, as they could easily screw this up. The sharps are braver than I am, as they’ve been betting Jacksonville all day. If you want to roll with them, I can understand that, and you might want to look at Bovada, where you can still get +3 -110. I also can’t blame you if you sit this one out like I am. I’ve said this before, but to bet the Jaguars, I need to be getting a good amount of points with them (six or more) against an overrated team I believe could be slacking off.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 56% (2,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

History: Underdog has covered 5 of the last 8 meetings, excluding pushes.

Opening Line: Titans -3.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: .

Week 8 NFL Pick: Titans 23, Jaguars 22
Jaguars +3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Titans 36, Jaguars 22

Washington Redskins (4-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (3-4)
Line: Bengals by 3. Total: 48.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bengals -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Oct 30, 9:30 AM
at Wembley Stadium, London
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: TBA.

OVERRATED-UNDERRATED: I posted betting trends and such in this spot over the past couple of years, but I won’t be doing that as much because I’ll be moving away from trends. Instead, I’ll list some underrated observations that the media either isn’t discussing or is misinforming the public about. I think I’ll do this in conjunction with overrated and underrated teams, which I should definitely put more effort into…

Underrated NFL Teams:

Carolina Panthers: I’ve been thinking about it, and I think the Panthers can be called underrated. Sure, they’re 1-5, but their losses aren’t as bad as they seem. They had the Saints tied at the very end in New Orleans, which is a very difficult place to play. Before that, they lost to the Buccaneers on Monday Night Football by a field goal, but it’s safe to say they would’ve won had Cam Newton been able to suit up. Before that, Carolina dropped games to the Vikings and Falcons, two of the best teams in the NFL. I’m not saying the Panthers are great, or anything; they’re nearly not as good as they were in 2015. However, they’re not a 1-5-caliber squad either. I think they’re more of a 9-7-type team that has endured some bad luck.

San Diego Chargers: The Chargers may have beaten the Broncos and Falcons the past two weeks, but it doesn’t seem like the public is giving them the respect they deserve. San Diego has had horrible luck this year and could easily be 6-1 or even 7-0 right now. The defense is much better now with Joey Bosa on the field, as he has been absolutely dominant. I know it might seem strange to praise the defense, given that the Chargers just surrendered 30 points to the Falcons, but keep in mind that seven came on a Philip Rivers strip-sack, and Atlanta mustered only three points after halftime! The Chargers limited the Falcons to 6.1 yards per play, which is pretty low considering some of Atlanta’s other results this year.

Miami Dolphins: Many were confused by Miami’s blowout victory over Pittsburgh, and they might feel the same about its victory over Buffalo. Part of that had to do with injuries to Ben Roethlisberger and LeSean McCoy, sure, but I think the Dolphins would’ve been competitive regardless. The injuries had nothing to do with Miami’s running game. The reason the Dolphins were able to pound the rock so effectively was because its offensive line was completely intact for the first time all year. That’ll be absolutely huge going forward, and I think the Dolphins will be competitive with most teams as a result.

Los Angeles Rams: Casual bettors miss injuries to significant role players. Part of the reason for that is ESPN focusing on stars and not spending enough time talking about actual substance. Thus, most people may have missed the fact that the Rams were without two of their defensive studs, Robert Quinn and Michael Brockers, against the Bills. Despite this, Los Angeles and Buffalo were tied at 16 late in the game when Case Keenum lofted a horrible pick-six. Keenum is obviously not any good, but the Rams weren’t themselves because they were missing half of their awesome defensive line. The same thing occurred against the Lions; Quinn was out, and Brockers left the game early. Los Angeles was the better team against the Giants, but just killed itself with dumb mistakes. For that reason, I believe the Rams will provide quality betting opportunities going forward.

Overrated NFL Teams:

New York Giants: The Giants definitely do not deserve to have a winning record. They only won in London because the Rams wrecked themselves with dumb mistakes, and they probably wouldn’t have prevailed against Baltimore had the Ravens not lost Jimmy Smith and Terrell Suggs in the second half. Prior to that, the Giants were not competitive against the Vikings or Packers. It would make more sense to me if they were 2-5 right now, as they can’t block, run the ball or get to the quarterback.

Oakland Raiders: The Raiders are basically the opposite of the Chargers. They’ve been close in every game, but they’ve just been great in the final two minutes. The question needs to be asked, though: Why are they having so much trouble putting away bad teams like the Saints and sub-par ones like the Titans? The Raiders did win at Baltimore, but they were outgained by about 150 net yards and lost the yards-per-play battle, 5.2-4.8. The Ravens were a drop away from attempting a field goal to win the game. San Diego, meanwhile, would’ve tied the game had the holder not bobbled the ball. It’s no surprise that the Raiders were blown out by the Chiefs at home, Andy Reid coming off a bye or not. This is pretty telling, too: The Raiders have been outgained in terms of yards per play in EVERY SINGLE GAME THIS YEAR (including at Jacksonville!)

Detroit Lions: There might be some hype surrounding the Lions, but I don’t think it’s completely deserved. They’ve won three games in a row, however, all three victories have been at home, and all three contests could’ve swung the other way. The Redskins lost because of their three fumbles. The Rams went down at the very end, and they outgained Detroit by more than a yard per play. And the Eagles, of course, fumbled the game away when they were running out the clock. I must remind you that before the Lions’ three-game home stretch, they had a legitimate defeat at Chicago.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins have two injury concerns heading into this game, one on each side of the ball. The offensive worry is Trent Williams, who underwent an MRI on his knee. The MRI showed no damage, so Williams might be able to play. For what it’s worth, the Washington Post believes Williams has a “good chance” of suiting up.

Williams being on the field is obviously crucial because he’s one of the top tackles in the NFL. He and Morgan Moses should be able to keep the Cincinnati edge rushers out of the backfield, allowing Kirk Cousins to have enough time to find his targets. That might include Jordan Reed, who has been cleared for practice. Reed’s absence hasn’t been huge for the Redskins because Jamison Crowder and Vernon Davis have done a good job of replacing him, though Reed returning would obviously provide a big boost.

The Redskins also figure to run the ball effectively versus a leaky Cincinnati rush defense. That may not be with Matt Jones, who fumbled three times last week, costing Washington a victory. Chris Thompson was more potent anyway, so the Redskins would be wise to give him more touches.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The injury worry the Redskins have here is with Josh Norman, who got knocked out of last week’s game with a concussion. Having Norman on the field is obviously a big deal, as Washington won’t have an answer for A.J. Green otherwise.

We all saw what Green did to the poor Browns, who were missing their top cornerback, Joe Haden. Green went absolutely berserk, and he may do the same thing in this matchup if Norman is out of the lineup. Andy Dalton will need Green to be dominant, as he’ll be going against a solid pass rush, where Ryan Kerrigan figures to have a huge mismatch against woeful right tackle Cedric Ogbuehi. Also, don’t underestimate Jay Gruden being on the other sideline. Gruden, who used to be Dalton’s former offensive coordinator, should have a good game plan installed to beat his ex-quarterback.

The Bengals, like the Redskins, should be able to run effectively. Jeremy Hill broke free for some huge runs last week. I don’t expect that to happen as often – especially with Hill being banged up – but Cincinnati should be able to pick up significant chunks on the ground.

RECAP: It’s hard to give a concrete selection on this game at the moment because it’s unclear what the statuses of Williams and Norman will be. Both are crucial to Washington’s game plan, so it would be foolish to issue an extremely confident pick on the Redskins right now, even with the edge Washington has with Gruden going against his former quarterback.

If both players suit up, this will be a three-unit selection. This spread makes no sense to me. Why are the Bengals favored by a field goal when these teams are dead even? What has Cincinnati done this year to warrant being a three-point favorite over a comparable team on a neutral field? Beat Kevin Hogan by 14 with the help of a Hail Mary? Slay the Dolphins, who were missing half of their offensive line, on a Thursday night? Beat the Jets by one? Cincinnati is clearly not the same team this year, and yet is being criminally overpriced by the books.

I’m going to pick the Redskins for one unit at the moment, as it will assume Williams and Norman won’t play. If they are cleared, however, I’ll increase my bet accordingly.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Still no word on Josh Norman as of this time, but based on sharp line movement on the Redskins, it appears as though professional bettors expect him to clear concussion protocol. If so, I’ll have a tough decision to make for the Supercontest, as I like six games and can only choose five.

INJURY UPDATE: Josh Norman and Jordan Reed have been cleared to travel with the team, so it sounds like they’ll be playing. Trent Williams, on the other hand, hasn’t practiced, but said he’ll play if he’s 80 percent. I like the Redskins more after hearing the Norman news, and I guess the sharps do too because they’ve been betting Washington the past couple of hours. I’ll lock in two units on +3, which is available at Bovada.

SATURDAY NOTES: It sounds as though Norman, Reed and Williams will all play for the Redskins, which is a great sign for their chances. They seem like the right side, and I considered placing a third unit on them, but I haven’t had much success with these early London games, so I’ll keep this at two units. In fact, I’ll lock those two units in at +3 -105 (Bovada), though I may add a third.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I actually screwed up in locking this in Saturday night because the Redskins are +3 +100 at Bovada. Nothing has changed in the past 12 hours or so. I still think the Redskins are the right side, and it’s been confirmed that all three of their primary players will be on the field. I hate these early games though, as they’re always sloppy, and weird things happen, so I’ll keep this at two units.

SportsLine.com’s Micah Roberts has been on an absolute tear in NFL picks. He went 5-1 on Sunday and has more picks up for this week’s games. Ride his heater now!

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

The public believes the Bengals are the right side.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 68% (17,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bengals -2.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: .

Week 8 NFL Pick: Redskins 27, Bengals 24
Redskins +3 -105 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 48.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Redskins 27, Bengals 27

Detroit Lions (4-3) at Houston Texans (4-3)
Line: Texans by 1.5. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Texans -3.
Sunday, Oct 30, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Texans.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot in coming weeks. Here were the four highest-bet sides, as of Tuesday morning last week:

Patriots -7

Vikings -2.5

Bills -3

Raiders +1

Those teams went 2-2 ATS, bringing the overall record this season to 11-19. The books keep getting crushed by the Patriots, but they were at least able to make their money back with the Vikings and Bills failing to cover. Here are the highest-bet teams in Week 8, as of Tuesday morning:

Patriots -6.5

Vikings -5.5

Raiders +1.5

Bengals -3

HOUSTON OFFENSE: One team the public won’t be betting on for sure is the Texans, who looked horrible Monday night. Well, let me rephrase that: Brock Osweiler looked horrible. He has appeared to be a colossal waste of money thus far. However, we’re not even halfway through the season, so things could still change.

Osweiler has enjoyed some solid performances this year, and I think this game could be another one. Detroit’s defense, already in shambles, lost its top defensive back last week, as Darius Slay injured his hamstring against the Redskins. Slay may not suit up, but even if he does, he probably won’t be 100 percent. This is a big boost for the Texans, as they need all the help they can get with their aerial attack. DeAndre Hopkins suddenly has a great matchup, so I would expect Osweiler to air the ball out successfully to Hopkins and Will Fuller.

I also suspect that the Lions will have problems stopping the run once again with Haloti Ngata out. They failed to contain Chris Thompson last week, and they could have greater problems against Lamar Miller, who ran well against the Broncos when he was on the field. Miller was in and out of the game with some sort of shoulder issue, but considering he was playing at the end of the contest, it’s safe to say that he’ll start against the Lions’ woeful defense.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Matthew Stafford has been playing at an All-Pro level this year. Save for one poor game at Chicago, Stafford has been absolutely dominant. It’s possible that he could continue his dynamic play, as Houston has some injury concerns in its secondary. Quintin Demps may not be on the field, while Kareem Jackson and Johnathan Joseph, who have previously dealt with ailments of their own, haven’t reverted to 100-percent form. Trevor Siemian was able to complete several downfield passes against the Texans, and Stafford could potentially have more success.

The one thing holding me back in terms of Stafford completely dominating is the advantage the Texans have on the edge. Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney have been tremendous this year despite J.J. Watt’s absence, and they could take advantage of a huge mismatch against Detroit’s two tackles. Putting tons of pressure on Stafford is obviously one way to slow him down.

The Texans gave up some huge chunks on the ground to C.J. Anderson and Devontae Booker on Monday night. It’s hard to imagine that happening again, though; Detroit doesn’t run the ball nearly as well, and its interior blocking isn’t as potent.

RECAP: I went into the Monday night game hoping that the Texans would get blown out. This advance spread on this game was Houston -3, so I thought a huge loss could bring this line down and offer us some great value on the host. Alas, that is not the case, as the sportsbooks have made most of the spreads super tight this week for some reason.

I’m still going to take the Texans, as I think they’ll be motivated to bounce back after being embarrassed on national TV. Plus, as noted above, I believe the Lions are overrated. Member when they were 1-3, coming off an ugly loss at Chicago? Well, they’ve won three in a row, but all three victories came at home, and they all could’ve gone the other way.

Unfortunately, this is just a small bet because we’re not getting a good number. This line should be -3, and that’s almost what it is. We’re going through a key number, but half-a-point isn’t nearly enough for me to get excited.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing much has changed here, as the public continues to bet the Lions. I still like the Texans for a small play.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s some sharp action finally moving the line in Detroit’s direction, but I don’t agree with it. I still like the Texans, especially with Detroit being without Darius Slay. If this line keeps going down, I may add another unit Sunday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: So much for this line moving down. The Texans have jumped back up to -2, although it’s -1.5 -105 at Bovada. I’ll stick with one unit on Houston.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
Some action on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 63% (10,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Lions are 6-13 ATS on the road vs. teams with winning records since 2011.

Opening Line: Texans -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Dome.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Texans 27, Lions 23
Texans -1.5 -105 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 45.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 20, Lions 13

Seattle Seahawks (4-1-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-4)
Line: Seahawks by 3. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -1.
Sunday, Oct 30, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a brand new weekly fantasy football contest. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest – the Week 7 contest has already been posted, so good luck!

HATE MAIL: I had a winning week, so there isn’t much hate mail to list. However, there were two pieces of hate in the 2017 NFL Mock Draft:

I love how someone criticized me for listing the official NFL draft order. It would be like someone complaining about how October comes after September. There’s nothing anyone can do about it!

Here’s someone who is somehow less intelligent:

I have my own house, but I don’t get what’s so wrong with living “with momma eating potato chips as she does your laundry.” First of all, having someone do your laundry for you is awesome. My fiancee does this for me, and it’s great. Second, saving money by living at home is something smart people do. And most importantly, potato chips are delicious!

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Russell Wilson’s performance against the Cardinals was puzzling. He had thrown so well against the Jets and Falcons, yet struggled to get anything going at Arizona. He was going against a much better defense, of course, but he still didn’t look quite right.

Fortunately for Wilson, he’ll have another matchup that’ll mirror New York and Atlanta, as the Saints’ defensive issues are well-documented. New Orleans is getting quality play out of its safeties, but its corners are an absolute train wreck, and I can’t see them staying with Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett. To counter this, the Saints will have to apply heavy pressure on the immobile Wilson, and they could have success in doing so. Cameron Jordan and Nick Fairley are a potent pass-rushing duo, and they should have their way with Seattle’s anemic offensive line.

To avoid taking a beating, Wilson will need his ground attack to excel. That could possibly happen, though the Saints aren’t horrific versus the rush. It also doesn’t help the Seahawks that their offensive line isn’t blowing open any holes for Christine Michael.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Drew Brees had a difficult matchup against Kansas City’s excellent defense last week, yet he was still able to put together a strong performance, aside from an ugly pick-six, because he’s playing at a very high level right now. Brees, however, could have another difficult test this Sunday.

The difficulty of that test will depend on whether or not Kam Chancellor plays. Chancellor has missed the past two games, so it’s no surprise that the Seahawks have blown some coverages in his absence. He’s dealing with a groin injury, and he was doubtful for the Arizona contest, so he definitely could miss another week. Besides, even if he plays, he may not be 100 percent. That gives the Saints some hope, especially considering that they have the right tackle to handle Cliff Avril – something Arizona struggled to do Sunday night.

The Seahawks will at least be able to contain the rush. I don’t see Mark Ingram doing much of anything on the ground. For the Saints’ sake, hopefully he doesn’t fumble away another game.

RECAP: For my sake, too, because I’m betting the Saints heavily. I’m taking them for three units.

This spread is mispriced, as I would’ve made the Seahawks a one-point favorite. Two points of value isn’t crazy, but we’re going through a key number, which helps. Seattle laying three at New Orleans just says the Seahawks are a dominant team (they’d be -9 versus New Orleans at home), and that isn’t the case. Wilson is clearly not himself; the offensive line is beyond putrid; and the defense could be without Chancellor.

The Saints, meanwhile, have been very competitive in all but one game this year, so I think they can definitely pull the upset versus a Seattle squad that could be extremely fatigued following a physical slugfest against the Cardinals that went five full quarters.

I’m actually going to lock in three units right now at +3 -115, which is available at Bovada. If this goes back up to +3 -110, so be it, but it appears as though this spread will keep falling. It opened Saints +3.5, and it’s been dropping rapidly as a result of a major amount of sharp action.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve locked this pick in already, and I don’t regret it yet, so I’ll take that as a positive sign. The sharps bet the Saints at +3, but not so much at +2.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m glad I locked this pick in, as there is a ton of sharp action moving the spread toward the Saints, who are now +2, and even +1.5 at some sportsbooks. Seattle will be without Kam Chancellor and Michael Bennett, while Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett are not 100 percent. The Saints should be favored, though I don’t like them nearly as much at +2 than I did at +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps continue to pound the Saints, as the Seahawks are now just one-point favorites. It’s easy to see why they’re doing this, given how banged up Seattle is. Plus, this line was never right in the first place.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 53% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Seahawks are 31-40 ATS on the road since 2006 if they’re not coming off an away loss.

Seahawks are 6-13 ATS on the road vs. teams that average 24+ ppg since 2007.

Drew Brees is 45-28 ATS as an underdog.

Drew Brees is 36-24 ATS after a loss with the Saints (12-5 ATS as an underdog).

Drew Brees is 8-1 ATS as a home underdog with the Saints.

Opening Line: Seahawks -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 8 NFL Pick: Saints 30, Seahawks 27
Saints +3 -115 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 25, Seahawks 20

New England Patriots (6-1) at Buffalo Bills (4-3)
Line: Patriots by 5.5. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -3 (McCoy) or Patriots -4 (no McCoy).
Sunday, Oct 30, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I wrote last week that I believed Aaron Rodgers was struggling because he was taking mental shortcuts like I was with my picks in previous years as a result of other priorities (shooting commercials, dating Olivia Munn, trying to kill flies with golf clubs). Despite Phil Simms gushing over Rodgers while answering his own questions and saying strange things, I stand by my assessment. It’s not that Rodgers is playing poorly; he’s just not nearly as potent as the vintage Rodgers was.

One Facebook friend, Nathan T., had a different theory, and it made a lot of sense to me:

As a Bears fan, I’ve been hating watching Rodgers for years. And I can tell you exactly why he’s been bad the last 18 months… He hasn’t realized he is 32.

He is a smaller, more athletic Big Ben, with a better arm. Both players became masters of the broken play in their late 20s. Both were incredible when they were “on”, and Rodgers has a lot more talent than Big Ben, so when he was “on,” he was the best in the league… The problem for Rodgers is that he thinks he can still scramble, beat the defender to the edge, and sling it. Instead, losing that half-step (quarter-step even) into his 30s, he was caught a LOT last year. Now, he throws the ball before he sets his feet instead of just not scrambling. He still wants to rely on the broken play, instead of on clean mechanics and arm talent. In order to be a scrambler and avoid defenders, he has given up his mechanics. He’s just not accurate anymore because of it (it isn’t his receivers. They were open last year too, he just missed them).

I like that a lot, and perhaps his non-football activities are preventing him from realizing this and making the appropriate adjustments.

Also, e-mailer Stephen N. came up with an interesting crackpot theory that I mentioned on the podcast.

Stephen said that Deflategate could be the issue. Rodgers has struggled ever since the NFL mandated checking all footballs for air pressure. What if Rodgers happened to be deflating footballs as well? It’s certainly possible, and I like that out-of-the-box thinking.

2. Stephen N’s e-mail was a great one. On the other end of the spectrum, I received several e-mails last week from either confused or angry people, and many of them went like this:

“Walt your an idiot London is 5 hrs ahead of the east coast so the 9:30 start you’re time is 2:30 in London you dolt so stop saying its a 6:30 local start.”

Ugh. It was a 6:30 a.m. local start for the Rams. Because, you know, three hours from the East Coast to the West Coast means a 9:30 a.m. start for the Giants was a 6:30 a.m. start for the Rams. Seriously, come on people, I know London isn’t three hours behind the Eastern Time Zone.

While on the subject, I’ve written this before, but something needs to be done about these London games. I don’t understand why the NFL even considered having stupid early starts. What was wrong with the 1 p.m. Eastern start for London games? That’s 6 p.m. London time. Are Englishmen not allowed out at night all of a sudden? Why else would Roger Goodell do this? Does he really think casual fans will wake up super early Sunday morning to watch a bad football game? He seriously can’t be that stupid, can he?

3. Speaking of the Rams-Giants game, New York did a great thing by exiling Josh Brown from the team. Except the Giants did this six weeks too late. I don’t know how they suddenly found out about Brown’s domestic violence when it was public knowledge in early September. I just assumed no one was talking about it because, let’s face it, Brown is a kicker, and no one cares about kickers.

It’s pretty outrageous that Brown wasn’t suspended for six games in the first place. He was given a one-game ban, so the league obviously knew something was up. It’s also been revealed that the Giants’ owner was told about his domestic violence issues. So, why not suspend him for six games, when that’s the rule Goodell implemented? I don’t understand, and it’s even more baffling as to why the league keeps trying to cover this up. It would still be wrong, but I could see the reasoning behind it if one of the faces of the league – i.e. Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, etc. – were guilty of this, but why would the NFL protect some stupid kicker? And Roger Goodell wonders why NFL TV ratings are down 11 percent. Think some of those are female fans who have had enough of Goodell’s bulls**t?

I also don’t need to tell you the hypocrisy surrounding this and all the NFL “does” for Breast Cancer Awareness month. I’ve written this before, but the whole thing is bulls**t, since, according to published news reports, the NFL only donates 3.5 percent of its proceeds to breast cancer awareness organizations, which is the bare minimum to make something tax-exempt. I understand people need to get paid, but you’d think it would still be in the ballpark of 25-50 percent. Giving just 3.5 percent is an insult, and I think that, as well as Goodell’s reluctance to suspend Brown, just proves that the NFL doesn’t really care about women.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: I naturally began writing about the Patriots’ scoring attack, but I realized I couldn’t begin talking about this pick preview without discussing how utterly stupid Rex Ryan is. Ryan, for whatever reason, tried to utilize LeSean McCoy last week despite it being very clear that McCoy was not nearly 100 percent as a result of his hamstring injury. McCoy aggravated the hamstring, and he could now miss multiple weeks as a result. Good going, Rex.

McCoy being absent from this game is obviously a huge blow to Buffalo’s chances. Without McCoy, the Bills don’t have a single play-maker on offense outside of Tyrod Taylor. And I’m not counting Marquise Goodwin, who makes a deep catch once every four weeks. Taylor won’t have anything to work with in this contest.

That’s obviously horrible news, considering the opponent. Bill Belichick is the master of taking one aspect away from an opposing offense, so without McCoy, he can focus on Taylor, erasing the elusive quarterback’s scrambling opportunities. Mike Gillislee and the pedestrian receiving corps won’t pose any sort of threat to Belichick.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots have battled some dreadful scoring attacks ever since Tom Brady has returned, so it’s not like they’ve needed to post tons of points on a weekly basis. And yet, they have. Of course, they couldn’t muster anything against the Bills the first time around, but that’s because they started an injured Jacoby Brissett, who wasn’t in surgery because he happened to be the only available quarterback on the roster.

That said, the Bills might be able to do a couple of things to slow down Brady. They can primarily rush the passer with Lorenzo Alexander and Jerry Hughes, and the latter has a nice matchup against woeful right tackle Marcus Cannon. Kyle Williams will cause some disruption in the interior as well. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s solid secondary will do its best to limit big gains by Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman.

Despite all of this, the Patriots simply have too much firepower, as Brady and Gronkowski are playing on too high of a level right now to be stopped. Besides, Brady may not need to do all that much, as Buffalo’s struggling run defense could have problems bringing down LeGarrete Blount after surrendering 200 rushing yards to Jay Ajayi.

RECAP: Member how I wrote earlier about most of the lines being tight this week? Well, that doesn’t apply to this game, as this spread is 2.5 points off where it should be. I had this as Patriots -3 with McCoy and -4 without him. That would translate to New England -10 at home, which makes sense to me. This spread says the Patriots would be -12.5 as hosts, which is way too high.

And yet, despite this, I’m taking the Patriots! I’m not a believer in trends anymore, but I am a believer in Belichick, and I know that Belichick has an incredible record in same-season divisional revenge games. How incredible, you ask? He’s a perfect 10-0 against the spread, winning by an average margin of 34.6 to 14.8.

Trends are absolutely horrible and don’t work for the most part – unless they can be explained via perfect logic, and even then, they’re still somewhat dubious. The logic behind this is that Belichick is the best coach in the NFL, and he’s even more focused in matchups in which he lost to a team for the first time. Belichick will figure out what he did wrong versus Buffalo back in Week 4, and he’ll make the appropriate adjustments.

I’m not betting this game, however. This spread is incredibly inflated, and there is zero value on the Patriots. However, I will recommend them for pick-pool purposes.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There wasn’t any sharp money on the Bills earlier in the week, but some on Thursday morning brought this line down from +6.5 to +6. I’m still staying away.

SATURDAY NOTES: As you may have seen in my Super Contest Picks Analysis, three of the top five contestants have picked the Patriots. They’re giving up line value, as the Bills should be +4ish, but the Belichick revenge factor figures to overcome that. I still have no strong opinion on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Some professional bets have finally come in on Buffalo, dropping this spread to +5.5 in a couple of books and +5 at Pinnacle. This line is still a bit too high for me, so I’ll stay on zero units.

The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.

Bill Belichick lost to the Bills already, so I imagine he has been game-planning like crazy against them.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Everyone is betting the Patriots again.

Percentage of money on New England: 88% (50,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 23 of the last 26 meetings.

Bill Belichick is 16-3 ATS against a team after losing to them by 14+ in the previous matchup.

Bill Belichick is 12-5 ATS against a team after losing to them the same year.

Patriots are 46-36 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Tom Brady is 190-64 as a starter (144-105 ATS).

Patriots are 6-12 ATS as road favorites since 2013.

True home teams are 31-19 ATS in the last 50 Bills games.

Bills are 8-29 ATS after playing the Miami Dolphins since 1998.

Bills are 18-28 ATS in their last 46 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Patriots -5.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 8 NFL Pick: Patriots 26, Bills 16
Patriots -5.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 41, Bills 25

New York Jets (2-5) at Cleveland Browns (0-7)
Line: Jets by 3. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Jets -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Browns -2 (Kessler/McCown) or Jets -4 (Hogan).
Sunday, Oct 30, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. You may have missed this play that occurred in the Boise State-BYU game on Thursday night. BYU ran quite possibly the dumbest play in football history – a fake punt on a fourth-and-19 from their own end zone!

Was BYU’s coach drugged when he made this decision? I have a general rule of thumb when it comes to stuff of this nature: If you wouldn’t run something like this while playing Madden, you probably shouldn’t do it in real life.

2. Speaking of weird plays, if you didn’t see this, here’s something Michigan has done a couple of times this season:

Yeah, I don’t even know, but it worked. That initial stance actually reminded me of the old Lemmings video games. I was half-expecting the guy in the front to blow up, creating a hole for the others to march through.

The only question I have is whether Jim Harbaugh is the one orchestrating this, or if he’s a Lemming himself. If it’s the latter, I wouldn’t say he’s a climber, floater or blocker. He’s a douchey agitator.

3. I was happy to see Penn State, my alma mater, slay the evil empire, Ohio State, on Saturday night. I didn’t think the Nittany Lions had a chance, but they proved me wrong.

While watching the fans flood the field, I was reminded of my days at State College, where there would always be crazy riots after huge sports victories. I imagined myself back up there, having a blast, but then I saw this from the student newspaper on Twitter:

Speaking of douchey agitators, this made me angry. What’s wrong with a good old riot? Sure, public property gets destroyed, but that’s part of college life, is it not?

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: There’s no line on this game because of the Browns’ quarterbacking situation. Cody Kessler is dealing with a concussion, while Josh McCown is still recovering from the injury he sustained in Week 2, though it sounds like he’ll be ready to return soon. If neither can suit up, it’ll be up to Kevin Hogan to lead the charge again.

Hogan, to put it nicely, is an abomination of a quarterback. The Browns effectively used him as a runner in strange zone-read plays last week, and I’d be fine with him reprising that role. However, he’s an abysmal passer. All he can do is dink and dunk, and if he tries anything downfield, it’ll fall incomplete or get intercepted. It’s a shame, too, as the Browns could’ve otherwise taken advantage of New York’s putrid secondary, especially with Terrelle Pryor being a week healthier. I’d like Kessler or McCown to post a healthy amount of points, but Hogan won’t be able to do much, despite any sort of heroic effort.

The Browns will need their quarterback to play well to avoid 0-8. That’s because it’ll be extremely difficult for them to run the ball against the Jets’ stout defensive front, especially with stud guard Joel Bitonio out of the lineup.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Geno Smith tore his ACL, so Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the starter until he screws up and Todd Bowles announces that Bryce Petty is able to play. Fitzpatrick is getting the Browns at the wrong time, as Joe Haden is set to return from injury. Cleveland’s secondary had struggled mightily in his absence, but it will obviously improve with Haden on the field. Haden should be able to take care of Brandon Marshall, who hasn’t been playing very good football lately.

The Jets will be limited aerially, especially with Danny Shelton putting heat on Fitzpatrick, thanks to the Jets’ interior offensive line being banged up. Thus, it’ll be important for New York to establish the ground attack. And it should have success doing so. Matt Forte had done nothing following Week 2 prior to last week’s performance. Forte could pick up where he left off, as the Browns just allowed a hobbled Jeremy Hill to burst through huge running lanes.

RECAP: I can’t give you a concrete selection just yet because there’s no spread available, plus it’s unknown who will be starting for Cleveland at quarterback.

I can’t imagine myself not picking the Browns, however, as this line will surely be inflated regardless of who the quarterback is. The Jets just won, while the Browns are 0-7, yet I believe Cleveland is the superior team. Some people can’t wrap their head around the fact that records mean almost nothing; the Browns have had some bad luck and could be 2-5 or 3-4 right now if that were different. Ask yourself this: What would the line be if the Browns were 2-5 compared to 0-7? The Browns, in this instance, will be home underdogs even with McCown or Kessler. If they were 2-5, they could be favored by 2.5 or three points!

I have to imagine that this will be one of my top plays this week if Kessler or McCown starts, but check back here or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I can now post a pick for this game, and I have to say that this is my second-favorite wager of the week. I love the Browns. Josh McCown will start, which is a great sign. Remember, the Browns were up 20-2 against the Ravens before McCown got hurt, so I think he can handle the Jets’ horrible pass defense. This spread is way off as well; Browns at Jets would read New York -9 (or, at the very least, -8), which is just ridiculous. I think the Browns will win outright, and because of the sharp money coming in on Cleveland, I’ll lock in Browns +3 +100 (BetUS) for four units.

SATURDAY NOTES: I made a huge mistake this week in terms of locking picks in, but this isn’t it. The Browns are now +2.5 or +2 in most places, though still +3 -120 at Bovada, which I would still take four units. McCown will start, Terrelle Pryor is healthier, and Joe Haden will suit up for the first time in a while. Meanwhile, Nick Mangold is out for the Jets, which is huge. The sharps are all over the Browns.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nothing has changed from Saturday night; the sharps bet the Browns heavily. Cleveland remains one of my top plays.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

The public is not backing the 0-7 team.

Percentage of money on New York: 69% (10,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Jets -4.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 8 NFL Pick: Browns 23, Jets 20
Browns +3 +100 (4 Units) — Push; $0
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jets 31, Browns 28

Oakland Raiders (5-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4)
Line: Pick. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Raiders -2.
Sunday, Oct 30, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Raiders.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Five years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for the 2013 season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses. In 2014, Donald Sterling answered spammers.

Last year, Tom Brady and his deflated footballs were involved. You can see those Spam Mails here with my responses to avoid clutter. I’ll have brand new spam mail responses every week!

Also…

Video of the Week: I had to post this. A few weeks ago, I had a video here from Lazy Translations, which was hilarious. They had a new video up about fantasy football, and I have to say that I loved the reference to this site near the end:

So awesome. And yeah, that guy should have visited the site. He probably tried to, but couldn’t connect via Facebook because of those annoying redirect ads, which I think I got rid of for the most part!

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The greatest mismatch in this game is on this side of the ball, as the Buccaneers’ horrific secondary will struggle to contain Oakland’s dynamic receivers. We saw it Week 2 when a decrepit Carson Palmer torched Tampa. The same thing could happen in this contest, as even decent defensive backfields have problems dealing with Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper.

The Buccaneers will have to protect their woeful safeties by generating lots of pressure on Derek Carr. Gerald McCoy is back in the lineup, which is a plus, but Carr is very well protected. It’s hard to imagine Tampa generating a consistent pass rush, especially when considering that McCoy is the only threat.

Tampa can at least take solace in knowing that the Raiders won’t run all over them. The Buccaneers had to worry about David Johnson in that aforementioned Week 2 matchup. The Raiders have no such threat coming out of the backfield, as Latavius Murray is a mediocre option, at best. Besides, Tampa has been solid versus the run this year.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Had this matchup occurred back in Week 2, I would’ve said that the Buccaneers could definitely keep pace with the Raiders on the scoreboard, as Oakland’s defense was coming off an embarrassing showing against the Saints. Newly acquired cornerback Sean Smith was torched so mercilessly that he was benched for his poor play.

Things changed, however, and Oakland’s defensive backfield has performed on a high level recently. Smith has been playing very well, and yet he’s the second-best cornerback on the roster because David Amerson has been dominant. Meanwhile, rookie safety Karl Joseph has provided a big boost ever since returning from his injury.

It’s difficult to imagine Jameis Winston having much passing success, especially when considering his inconsistency. The Buccaneers, however, could help Winston by establishing a strong attack. Jacquizz Rodgers just trampled the 49ers, and he could have similar success versus an Oakland defense that has been weak in terms of stopping ground games.

RECAP: The Raiders are the better team, and considering Tampa’s lack of homefield advantage, the wrong team is favored in this matchup. I have Oakland down as a two-point favorite, but going from -1.5 to +2 isn’t a big deal, unfortunately.

Oakland should be the right side. The Buccaneers, who just had to fly home from the West Coast, have to battle the Falcons in an extremely important divisional battle in just four days. The Raiders could also be in look-ahead mode, given that they have the Broncos coming up, but that’s not a contest they have to prepare for on short rest.

I wish we were getting a better number with the Raiders, but I still think they’re worth a small play. The amount of public action on Oakland scares me a bit, so I’m going to limit this wager to a small amount.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line dropped from Raiders +1.5 to pick in the past half hour, indicating a big wager coming in on Oakland. That means there is even less value on the Raiders now, so I’m going to pass on this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: The public is moving this line in the Raiders’ direction, while there’s nothing coming in from the sharps to compensate for that. I favor Oakland a bit, but not nearly enough to bet them, as this line is right where it should be.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread continued to rise and even hit -2.5 earlier Sunday morning, but there was finally some sharp action that came in on Tampa, bringing this back down to a pick em. This is a toss-up for me.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.

The Buccaneers have a key divisional game in four days. The Raiders, however, battle the Broncos next week.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

The public is pounding the Raiders.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 75% (27,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

Road Team is 69-41 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Raiders are 13-28 ATS after a win since 2009.

Buccaneers are 16-39 ATS at home in the previous 55 instances.

Buccaneers are 7-19 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: .

Week 8 NFL Pick: Raiders 27, Buccaneers 23
Raiders PK (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 49 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Raiders 30, Buccaneers 24

Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) at Indianapolis Colts (3-4)
Line: Chiefs by 3. Total: 49.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Oct 30, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

I’ve been citing that Tom Brady has lost his “clutch” ability over the past few years, but I guess I can’t do that any longer because he recently won his fourth Super Bowl. Or, can I…? Brady, after all, reached the “Big Game” with the help of his deflated footballs.

Brady was stuck on three Super Bowls for a long time before he resorted to cheating. So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona or tells a new story. Including this one…

Tom Brady was given a new mission from Donald Trump. He was told to visit the neighboring country and convince them to build a wall in case Trump loses to Hillary Clinton. Tom needs to do this to keep the Latin Kings out of the country. To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: If Andrew Luck were only half as good as he is, the Colts would be 0-7 right now. They have the worst roster in the NFL, save for the 49ers, yet Luck is somehow keeping them afloat and in the hunt for a playoff spot. Luck will have his work cut out for him in this matchup, however.

The Chiefs did a good job of rattling Drew Brees in the first half last week. Brees eventually caught fire, but it was evident that he was jittery in the pocket. You’d think Luck would be the same way, given that his offensive line sucks, but Indianapolis’ blocking unit actually has a good matchup here with Anthony Castanzo going up against Kansas City’s top, healthy edge rusher in Tamba Hali. Castanzo should be able to keep Hali out of the backfield, though I do think Dee Ford will have some success on the other side.

Luck, meanwhile, doesn’t have many reliable targets at his disposal. T.Y. Hilton is great, but he’ll likely have to deal with Marcus Peters. As for Jack Doyle, he has ruled lately, but his production could drop off a cliff in this game because the Chiefs are stellar in terms of defending tight ends. The same goes for running games, so don’t expect much out of Frank Gore. It would be nice if Luck had Donte Moncrief back from injury. Moncrief will practice this week, but it’s unclear if he’ll be able to return just yet.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs’ offense was responsible for 20 points last week, which obviously isn’t a lot, especially when the opponent has a premium quarterback like Luck. However, they did a good job of controlling the clock and moving the chains efficiently, limiting Brees’ opportunities. They’ll have to utilize the same sort of strategy against Luck, so it’s good news for them that Indianapolis’ defense is just as bad as New Orleans’.

The Colts suck in almost every regard on this side of the ball. The two solid players they have are in the secondary, where Vontae Davis is rounding himself into shape and performing better each week, while safety Michael Adams has played on a high level all season. Davis should be able to take away Jeremy Maclin, but that doesn’t mean all that much because Alex Smith spreads the ball around. Smith will target Travis Kelce the most, in all likelihood, as Indianapolis’ epically slow linebackers haven’t been able to cover tight ends all year.

The Chiefs will also be able to pound the rock effectively with Spencer Ware. It will definitely be the Ware show, as Jamaal Charles is banged up and has been deemed not ready for action. Ware will trample an Indianapolis’ rush defense that hasn’t been able to stop the run whatsoever. Lamar Miller and DeMarco Murray both steamrolled the Colts the past two weeks, and Ware will pick up where they left off.

RECAP: This is a similar situation to the Raiders-Buccaneers game where the spread is off by a couple of points, but the actual line difference doesn’t matter too much. I have the Chiefs as a one-point favorite, so going from +1 to +2.5 doesn’t really mean anything.

This is a non-pick for me right now, but I’ll be looking for any sort of +3s to pop up. You can currently get that line at -120 juice at Bovada and BetUS, but I’d rather wait. If we can get +3 -110, this will be a two-unit selection, as the line will be too inflated in the Chiefs’ favor (Kansas City +3 here means -9 at home, which is obviously too high). Luck should be able to keep this game close, and he’ll certainly have a chance of pulling the upset.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As noted on the podcast, I did some thinking, and I like the Colts a lot more now. The Chiefs might be overrated, as they scored just 20 offensive points against the Saints’ defense, and really only 17 if Nick Fairley’s penalty isn’t counted. Kansas City has played very well in only one game this year (at Raiders in sloppy weather with Andy Reid coming off a bye). This line has moved to Colts +3 -115 at Bovada, so I’m going to place three units on the host, though I’ll continue to hold out hope for +3 -110.

SATURDAY NOTES: I said I made a mistake in terms of locking/not locking in. This isn’t it either. I was waiting for Colts +3 -110 all week, and I finally got it, as it’s available at Bovada. I’m locking that in for three units. This spread is ridiculous, as this would translate to Chiefs -9 at home (probably -7.5ish, actually). That’s just wrong, given that the Chiefs were -6.5 versus the Saints and basically only won that game by three.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Colts are still available at +3 -115 at many books, which is a decent number. I like the Colts quite a bit, though the sharps haven’t weighed in on he game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.
Slight lean on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 61% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Andrew Luck is 23-9 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Chiefs -3.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Colts 24, Chiefs 23
Colts +3 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 49.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 30, Colts 14

Arizona Cardinals (3-3-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-5)
Line: Panthers by 2.5. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Panthers -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -2.
Sunday, Oct 30, 4:25 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

If you’re unaware of this, you can publish your own articles on this Web site and have them promoted via Twitter, Facebook and this page! Check out our Open Rant feature, where articles get promoted all the time. Some readers’ articles have gotten more than 3,000 views, so if you want to get your opinion heard, here’s a great way for you to do so!

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Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The last time we saw Cam Newton, he kept pouting during the post-game press conference before storming off stage. I don’t know what he did during the two weeks off, but as long as he didn’t spend all 14 days crying in a corner, I expect him to be better, despite this difficult matchup.

I don’t think Newton was quite himself against the Saints, as his mind may not have been right because he was coming off a concussion. He still played well for the most part, however, so that gives me hope for this matchup. The Cardinals, of course, limited Russell Wilson to just six points in five quarters Sunday night, but they didn’t have to worry about Wilson’s mobility. Newton will certainly move around, and he’ll receive better protection if Michael Oher returns from his concussion. I’m not particularly fond of Oher’s play, but he’s definitely better than Seattle’s left tackle, and he would at least give his team a fighting chance of keeping Chandler Jones out of the backfield. Markus Golden could be a problem on the other side, however.

If Oher plays, and Newton gets some time as a result, he’ll have some success finding his talented weapons for considerable gains. Patrick Peterson will certainly erase Kelvin Benjamin, but the Cardinals will have to worry about Greg Olsen, Devin Funchess and Ted Ginn as well, and their corner opposite Peterson, Marcus Cooper, has been performing poorly lately.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: I’ve been saying all year that Carson Palmer hasn’t looked quite right. He made some solid throws against the Seahawks on Sunday night, but he just doesn’t seem like the same player overall. It hasn’t helped him that John Brown has missed action, while Michael Floyd is playing like he’s brain-dead right now, dropping countless passes and lining up incorrectly.

Palmer to Fitzgerald is still a thing, however, and it should work against Carolina’s awful secondary. It’ll be interesting to see if the Panthers found a solution to their defensive backfield woes during the bye – they excelled following a week off two years ago – because having a better pass defense should be able to solidify the stop unit. A better pass rush would help as well, and I think Charles Johnson will have his way with right tackle D.J. Humphries.

Of course, David Johnson will be a huge factor. Johnson was battling a stout Seattle run defense last week, and yet Johnson was still terrific. The Panthers have been much better versus the rush, but Johnson will be able to pick up big chunks of yardage.

RECAP: I was hoping to get a good number on the Panthers. The Cardinals, coming off a five-quarter, defensive grinder, are an overrated team, and I wanted to bet against them with the Panthers, who aren’t nearly as bad as their 1-5 record indicates.

Unfortunately, my heart sank when I saw that Carolina was -2.5 on Monday. Member when I said that the lines were super tight this week? Well, this is a prime example! Couldn’t the Cardinals be favored? Why do you have to hate me so much, Vegas sportsbooks?

This spread shot up to -3 Tuesday morning, thanks to there being lots of sharp money on the Panthers. The value is all gone, however, so this will be a non-wager for me. I’ll still take Carolina for pick-pool purposes, but it’s very discouraging to see a quality betting opportunity ruined like this.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line is a solid -3 everywhere, as the sharps moved this line up pretty quickly. I still don’t like either side, as all value is gone with Carolina.

SATURDAY NOTES: Once again, we’re not getting the value I was hoping for. The sharps recognized that, betting this up to -3, but they haven’t taken Carolina at this current spread.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I noted that the pros bet the Panthers up to -3 earlier in the week. There was some sharp money placed on Cardinals +3 as well a couple of hours ago. Panthers -2.5 is obviously more appealing, but there’s still not enough value for me to bet the host.

The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.
The Cardinals have to be exhausted after playing such a long, grindy game against the Seahawks, while the Panthers are desperate at 1-5. However, this is a revenge situation for Arizona.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 54% (13,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Bruce Arians is 34-23 ATS as head coach of the Cardinals.

Cam Newton is 17-13 ATS off a loss as long as he’s not favored by 7+.

Ron Rivera is 1-4 ATS after a bye.

Opening Line: Panthers -2.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 8 NFL Pick: Panthers 20, Cardinals 16
Panthers -2.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Panthers 30, Cardinals 20

Week 8 NFL Picks – Late Games
San Diego at Denver, Arizona at Carolina, Philadelphia at Dallas, Minnesota at Chicago

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 8 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)