NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8, 2016

NFL Picks (Preseason 2016): 12-7-1 (+$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2016): 13-3 (+$1,735) full review
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2016): 9-7 (-$430) full review
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2016): 7-7-2 (+$880) full review
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2016): 7-8 (-$70) full review
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2016): 6-7-1 (+$115) full review
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2016): 7-7-1 (+$515) full review
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2016): 11-4 (+$1,560) full review

NFL Picks (2016): 72-50-5 (+$5,595)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 31, 6:40 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 8 NFL Picks – Early Games

San Diego Chargers (3-4) at Denver Broncos (5-2)
Line: Broncos by 4. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -3.
Sunday, Oct 30, 4:05 PM
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The Game. Edge: Chargers.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 9! Season 8 saw Emmitt going to North Korea to stop Kim Jong-un from destroying the world. It featured a mind-blowing twist at the very end that you absolutely need to check out if you haven’t already.

Season 9 will deal with election stuff, and it begins with something strange happening to Emmitt while he’s stuck in traffic at a protest rally. In the seventh chapter, the students of Emory University aim to kill Emmitt and friends. Emmitt meets an old foe.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: If the Chargers somehow rally back from 1-4 and make the playoffs, Philip Rivers will need to be considered MVP. He has been phenomenal this season, completing 66.1 percent of his passes on an 8.2 YPA and maintaining a 13:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. And yet, he’s doing this without his No. 1 receiver! Rivers has endured some matchups as well, including the Broncos two weeks ago. The stats say he was limited to just 178 yards, but he performed much better than that; he threw all over the Broncos in the first half, but the Chargers took the foot off the gas because they were ahead by so much.

I don’t see why this game would be any different. The one possible change is that Hunter Henry could be unavailable because of a concussion. Still, Rivers has Antonio Gates, who came up with some big catches last week. Gates will be able to abuse a slow linebacking corps that has struggled to cover tight ends. Henry could still play, which would be a big boost, considering that the receivers will have trouble against Denver’s talented cornerbacks.

I also expect Melvin Gordon to have a solid game. Gordon has been on a tear this year, and he gained 94 yards against the Broncos the first time around. Denver’s run defense isn’t very good, as Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue tallied more than 120 rushing yards Monday night.

DENVER OFFENSE: One of the many reasons why the Chargers were my October NFL Pick of the Month was because of Joey Bosa. The rookie has been unbelivable ever since entering the lineup in Week 5. The Chargers have been much better defensively as a result. That may sound strange, given that the Falcons just scored 30 points, but seven came off Rivers’ strip-sack, while another seven came via a Rivers interception. San Diego limited Atlanta to just three points after halftime, which is highly impressive.

Many look at Trevor Siemian’s performance against the Chargers in Week 6 and attribute it to him not being prepared to play coming off an injury, but the Chargers have been very stingy defensively for the most part since Bosa entered the lineup. Bosa and Melvin Ingram should be able to get by Denver’s weak tackles and rattle Siemian. Meanwhile, getting back Brandon Flowers from injury would provide a boost, though the Chargers would be able to survive without him yet again.

The Broncos will look to establish the rush, which propelled them to victory over the Texans. However, C.J. Anderson was limited to just 37 yards on 10 carries in the Week 6 matchup, while Devonta Freeman didn’t fare much better versus San Diego this past Sunday.

RECAP: Surprise, surprise, this is my top play of the week. I’m mad that this spread has dropped from +6.5 and +6, thanks to heavy sharp action, but I still think there’s incredible value, as my number is +3.

That may surprise most people, as the popular belief is that the Broncos are vastly superior to the Chargers. That’s simply not true, however, as they are very close in my NFL Power Rankings. San Diego is 3-4, but could easily be 6-1 or maybe even 7-0 with better luck. If the Chargers were even 5-2, what would this line be? Denver would likely be laying just three points, 3.5 at most.

This a five-unit selection for me. The Broncos are an offensively challenged team, so having them cover more than a field goal versus a quality opponent is probably too much to ask. Besides, even if he’s trailing in the second half, Rivers will be able to throw a back-door touchdown to cover the spread. Rivers, by the way, has enjoyed tremendous success in Denver. He’s 6-5 straight up, 9-2 against the spread at this location, and his only losses against the number involved a shady call back in 2008, and a Thursday night affair two years ago in which half of his defense suffered injuries. Hopefully that doesn’t happen in this game!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Argh, this line keeps sinking. It’s now +4.5 across the board, as the sharps continue to pound San Diego. There’s still a +5 -115 at Bovada, but I don’t think that’s worth locking in. Hopefully this goes back up.

SATURDAY NOTES: Here’s the game I screwed up. I didn’t get the chance to lock in +6, so I’ve been watching this spread drop all the way to +4. I still love the Chargers, as they’re an underrated underdog playing an overrated opponent. Unfortunately, I missed out on some great numbers. I’m going to hold out hope that this spread goes back up, but considering how much the sharps have been pounding San Diego, I don’t really see that happening, though there’s always the possibility that some bettors will want to get a middle.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: Ugh. This line is +3.5 everywhere, save for Bovada, where it’s +4 -115. I have no choice but to lock that in. Seriously, who is betting this game in Vegas at 6 a.m.? I screwed this up pretty bad, though I never had a chance at +6 based on when I posted my picks.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Well, I finally did something right. I made the correct call and locked in +4 -115 this morning, as this spread is now +3.5 everywhere. It’s really insane how much sharp money has come in on the Chargers. We missed out on a good number, but +4 -115 isn’t awful compared to +3.5.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
Sharp money on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 60% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Broncos have won 9 of the last 11 meetings (Philip Rivers 9-2 ATS in Denver).

Gary Kubiak is 2-5 ATS following Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Broncos -6.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 8 NFL Pick: Chargers 27, Broncos 24
Chargers +4 -115 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$575
Over 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 27, Chargers 19

Green Bay Packers (4-2) at Atlanta Falcons (4-3)
Line: Falcons by 3. Total: 51.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Falcons -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Falcons -1.5.
Sunday, Oct 30, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is about the new NBC show, Timeless.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms gushed all over Aaron Rodgers after watching him throw for 326 yards and three touchdowns against the Bears on Thursday night, but those of us who weren’t slobbering all over him in hopes of staying friends and keeping potential interview possibilities saw the truth. Rodgers isn’t the same quarterback. He’s not horrible, or anything; as a matter of fact, he’s solid. However, he’s not nearly as potent as vintage Rodgers was.

There’s a silver lining here though, and it’s that the Packers have been given 10 days off to get their act together. This layoff could also allow Jordy Nelson to heal up. Nelson couldn’t get open against Tracy Porter on Thursay night, which had to have been embarrassing for him. Nelson will draw a tough matchup though, so it’s a good thing for Rodgers that Davante Adams was able to step up versus Chicago. Atlanta’s secondary isn’t very great outside of Desmond Trufant, and Rodgers figures to have plenty of time in the pocket, as the Falcons’ pass rush is pretty underwhelming overall, though Vic Beasley has been better of late.

Another reason the 10-day layoff is so beneficial is because Ty Montgomery was given more reps at running back. Montgomery has switched positions, and he was effective Thursday night in certain situations. I’m sure the Packers will have better plays for him with extra time to prepare.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Rodgers’ decline has been just one reason the Packers have underwhelmed thus far. The other is the secondary, which has endured countless injuries. Sam Shields, Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins have all been out of the lineup. Shields won’t be back anytime soon, and the same can be said for Randall. However, it sounds as though Rollins will have a legitimate shot to suit up, which will be a nice boost for a secondary that is very thin.

Of course, this doesn’t really matter in terms of Green Bay’s matchup against Julio Jones. There’s no stopping Jones, who figures to go off again. The only way the Packers will be able to slow down Atlanta’s passing attack is by generating lots of heat on Matt Ryan. The problem with that strategy is that Ryan is very well protected, with the only liability up front being at right guard, where Chris Chester has struggled.

The Packers will at least be able to slow down the run. They won’t have to worry about Tevin Coleman, who is dealing with an injury. Their ground defense is excellent, and it will be able to limit Devonta Freeman.

RECAP: I think this line is off, as I have it marked down as Falcons -1.5. I have these teams ranked about evenly in my NFL Power Rankings, so why the -1.5 instead of -3? Well, as I noted last week, the Falcons don’t have a quality homefield advantage. It’s worth about 1.5 points, hence that number.

Besides the value – getting a key number is nice – there are other factors. The Falcons have a crucial NFC South battle in four days, so they may not be completely focused. The Packers, meanwhile, are coming off extra rest, and I’m sure they’ll have a strong game plan prepared for Atlanta. I also like getting Rodgers as an underdog. He doesn’t have a great record in that regard, but it feels as though if the Packers lose this game, it’ll be by three points or fewer, so the worst-case scenario might be a push.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Here’s a game in which the line movement is helping us. Packers +3 +100 is now available at 5Dimes, which looks very appealing. I’m going to hold out hope for +3.5, however.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Packers are still available at +3 +100 (Bovada), but I’m still holding out hope for +3.5. The sharps stopped betting the Falcons, however. This is still one of my favorite picks, as this line should be about -1.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Packers are still +3. I don’t have the luxury of getting +100 anymore, but I’m fine with settling at +3 if Vegas isn’t going to give us +3.5.

SportsLine.com’s Micah Roberts has been on an absolute tear in NFL picks. He went 5-1 on Sunday and has more picks up for this week’s games. Ride his heater now!

The Psychology. Edge: Packers.

The Falcons have a key divisional game in four days.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.
Sharp money has taken the Falcons to -3.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 61% (31,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Aaron Rodgers is 71-44 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 31-22 ATS on the road as long as he’s not favored by 6.5 or more points.

Aaron Rodgers is 13-11 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Falcons -3.

Opening Total: 52.

Weather: .

Week 8 NFL Pick: Packers 30, Falcons 28
Packers +3 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 51.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Falcons 33, Packers 32

Philadelphia Eagles (4-2) at Dallas Cowboys (5-1)
Line: Cowboys by 5. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cowboys -5.5.
Sunday, Oct 30, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

Trolling will continue. I can’t attack the NFL.com or ESPN boards because the fascist scum working at Facebook prevented me from making posts that others besides my friends can see. They’ve also been penalizing the other trolls. However, I have been hitting up the team pages on Facebook. Here’s a short one:

This was under a post on the Falcons page where they talked about their new stadium. I hope that my post made at least one person panic and do an Internet search about whether or not the Falcons are actually moving.

I posted on the Seahawks’ page as well:

Not much of a reaction there, but I seldom get replies when I post there. I guess everyone’s used to my antics.

I had a slightly better response on the Cardinals page:

I have no idea what they’re talking about in terms of Daniel Stevens. Does Mario Migelini finally have a trolling rival? Can’t wait to find out!

DALLAS OFFENSE: Last week’s slate felt somewhat incomplete, as we didn’t get to see Dak Prescott in action. Prescott’s play this year has been unreal. He’s thrown just one interception, and it wasn’t completely his fault. Of course, the Eagles know something about rattling a quarterback who hasn’t turned the ball over very often, so they’ll try to disrupt Prescott just like they did with Sam Bradford this past week.

The difference, however, is that the Cowboys have an excellent offensive line, unlike Minnesota. Connor Barwin won’t be able to abuse horrific left tackles; instead, he’ll have to deal with Tyron Smith, who will keep him out of the backfield. Dallas’ interior will neutralize Fletcher Cox for the most part as well. This will give Prescott more time in the pocket to expose some very shaky cornerbacks, who will struggle to cover Dez Bryant in his first game back from injury.

The Cowboys will also be able to move the chains on the ground, of course, as Ezekiel Elliott is setting all sorts of records. The Eagles once had a strong ground defense, but that took a hit in the wake of Bennie Logan’s injury. The Vikings couldn’t really take advantage of this, but you better believe the Cowboys will.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Carson Wentz was able to get away with some horrible passes in the first half of the Minnesota game because his defense was able to bail him out. That won’t be the case this week, so if Wentz keeps making blunders, the Cowboy could easily jump out to a huge lead.

The problem for Wentz will be the same one he dealt with in Washington. With Lane Johnson out of the lineup, the Eagles will have to deal with DeMarcus Lawrence and Tyrone Crawford, with the former likely being more potent after having an entire week to heal up. Philadelphia’s other tackle spot could also prove to be problematic, as Jason Peters is not completely healthy right now.

Wentz won’t have much protection, and he’ll find it difficult to throw into a secondary featuring Morris Claiborne, who will be able to erase half the field. Running the ball doesn’t seem like a great option either, as the Cowboys have defended the rush well for the most part, and it’s not like Ryan Mathews is potent enough to overcome that matchup.

RECAP: There’s no question that the Cowboys are the better team. I’m just worried about their focus. They’re coming off a big win in Lambeau, and everyone’s been telling them how great they are during their week off. Will they come out focused, or will they be lethargic as a result?

If this were the Cowboys of old, led by Tony Romo, I’d definitely say it would be the latter. However, the Cowboys appear to be way more enthusiastic with Prescott at the helm. They seem to be a completely different team, at least for the time being, so I think they stand a decent chance of covering.

That said, I’m not betting this game. This line is too close to my projected spread, so there’s no value. Plus, I could be wrong, and the Cowboys may come out flat.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have finally decided to jump on the Eagles, moving this line down to +4. That makes the Cowboys slightly more appealing, but I wouldn’t wager on this game unless I happened to get -3.

SATURDAY NOTES: It looks like the line dropping earlier was just bulls*** movement. It seems as though the sharps wanted to get Cowboys -4 because they bet them heavily at that number, bumping this spread up to -5. I still don’t have a strong feeling for this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still can’t get over how stupid that San Diego-Denver game was. My enthusiasm for betting football isn’t present right now, and I didn’t like this game anyway. As I’ve written earlier, this result depends on whether or not the Cowboys are focused. If they’re unprepared because everyone’s been telling them how great they are over the past two weeks, then the Eagles will cover and perhaps win outright. Conversely, if they’re focused, Dallas should be able to win by at least a touchdown. I don’t want to guess what the Cowboys’ mindset will be, so I’m going to just leave this at zero units.

The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.

The Cowboys had a big win prior to the bye, so they’ve been hearing about how great they are for two weeks.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 58% (63,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Road Team has won 10 of the last 12 meetings.

The underdog is 65-36 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Eagles are 26-13 ATS as road underdogs since 2005.

Eagles are 1-10 ATS before playing the Giants since December 2010.

Cowboys are 13-24 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).

Cowboys are 8-20 ATS when favored after a win since 2010.

Opening Line: Cowboys -4.5.

Opening Total: 43,5.

Weather: .

Week 8 NFL Pick: Cowboys 26, Eagles 20
Cowboys -5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Survivor Pick (6-1)
Cowboys 29, Eagles 23

Minnesota Vikings (5-1) at Chicago Bears (1-6)
Line: Vikings by 5. Total: 40.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Vikings -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Vikings -4.5 (Cutler) or Vikings -8.5 (Barkley).
Monday, Oct 31, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: Vikings.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have some bald dude and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and aloof people like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Chicago, home of Da Bears! Tonight, the Chicago Da Bears take on the Minnesota Twins. Guys, I hired ISIS for this game. They had a deal on ISIS.com to bomb two specific people for $39.95. I saved up enough allowance money that Mother gave me to make the order from ISIS.com, and I ordered them to kill Sam Bradford and Matt Barkley. Why? Because they both started for my Eagles and they were both losers!!!

Emmitt: Hunter, I do not have any explanationing for what you talking about. What do Sam Bradford and Charles Barkley have to do with Eagle? And what do Isis have to do with themselves? Isis the dog from my favorite TV program, Downtown Abbott. He a good dog for the main guy on the program, Mr. Carlson, who is the President of the city of London.

Herm: THAT’S NOT RIGHT! THAT’S NOT CORRECT! THAT’S WRONG! THAT’S INACCURATE! THAT’S NOT THE PLOT! THAT’S NOT THE STORY! DOWNTON ABBEY IS NOT DOWNTOWN ABBOTT! ISIS IS THE DOG BUT THE OWNER’S NOT MR. CARLSON! IT’S CRAWLEY! THE OWNER IS CRAWLEY! THE GUY WHO OWNS STUFF IS CRAWLEY! AND HE DOES NOT BECOME THE PRESIDENT OF LONDON! AND LONDON NOT A CITY! EVERYTHING YOU SAID IS WRONG! EVERYTHING YOU SAID IS INCORRECT! NOT ONE THING WAS CORRECT! WAIT, THAT’S NOT CORRECT! HERM IS INCORRECT! HERM IS WRONG! BECAUSE EMMITT SAID ISIS IS A DOG! THAT WAS CORRECT! THAT WAS RIGHT! THAT WAS ACCURATE! ISIS IS A DOG! ISIS IS A TERRORIST GROUP! NOT SURE IF ISIS HAS A DOG NAMED ISIS, BUT THAT’S CONFUSING TO HERM! THAT’S PERPLEXING TO HERM! THAT’S BEFUDDLING TO HERM! THAT’S MESMERIZING TO HERM! HERM CAN’T THINK ANYMORE! HERM CAN’T THINK! HERM’S BRAIN CAN’T FUNCTION! SHUTTING DOWN! SHUTTING DOWN! SHUT… uhh… umm…

Reilly: Herm, you’re an idiot, so I’m going to go with Emmitt on this one. I don’t know myself because I don’t watch the show. Mother says it’s too scandalous for me.

Tollefson: Kevin, you really need to stand up to your mom. How can a woman tell you what to do? A woman’s place is in the kitchen or bedroom, unless you’re in a small apartment and your kitchen is the bedroom, so her place is the kitchen and the bedroom. At least that’s what I told your mother last night. Burn!

Reilly: You’re lying! After I made the order on ISIS.com, Mother made me rub her bunions for three hours, and then she fell asleep. I slept next to her because I was watching a scary movie!

Millen: Kevin, I don’t know how you can rub a woman’s bunions. In fact, I don’t know why any man would touch a woman when there are 100-percent USDA Men everywhere. Kevin, sometimes I invite these men to my hotel room and I rub their bunions. Then, they take their freshly rubbed foot and ram it into my backside. It’s no kielbasa, but let me tell you, Kevin, it feels good to try a change of pace sometimes, you know?

Fouts: And here’s what he means by change of pace. Sometimes, there’s a pace. It could be a fast pace. It could be a slow pace. It could be a medium-speed pace. It could be a slightly fast pace. It could be a slightly slow pace. But then you change it. So, a fast pace can become a slow pace. That’s a change. A fast pace can also become a slightly slow pace. That’s also a change. A slow pace can become a medium-speed pace. That’s also a change. But you can’t have a slow pace become a slow pace. That’s not a change of pace. That’s the opposite of a change of pace. In other words, that’s a not change of pace, or in big, college words, a sustainment of pace.

Wolfley: I ONCE SAW A FAST PACE GO TO A FAST PACE, AND THAT WAS A CHANGE OF PACE EVEN THOUGH YOU SAID IT’S A NOT CHANGE OF PACE. I DON’T KNOW THE OTHER WORD BECAUSE I NEVER WENT TO CLASS IN COLLEGE. I JUST CHEATED OFF MY FRIEND, WHO HAPPENED TO BE AN OTTER WEARING A PINK FLOYD T-SHIRT.

Reilly: Guys, here they come! ISIS is here, those two men right there! They’re going to take out Sam Bradford and Matt Barkley! Yes!!!

Charles Davis: Let’s talk about terrorist organizations, Kevin. There’s ISIS, as you mentioned, Kevin. How about ISIL, Kevin? But that’s the same thing as ISIS, isn’t it, Kevin? Just with a different letter at the end, right Kevin? Let’s discuss Al Qaeda, Kevin. You know about them, right Kevin? Why don’t we talk about Jabhat al-Nusra, Kevin? Let’s try an exercise, Kevin. Why don’t you name a terrorist organization, Kevin. I’ll give you 716 minutes, Kevin. Oh, you think pepperoni pizza is a terrorist organization, Kevin? Looks like your time is up, Kevin. The other group is…

Reilly: HEY ISIS, YOU GUYS I HIRED LAST NIGHT! YEAH, YOU! I CHANGED MY MIND! PLEASE KILL CHARLES DAVIS INSTEAD OF MATT BARKLEY, PLEASE! THANK YOU! We’ll be back after this!

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Matt Barkley will not be starting for the Bears, as Jay Cutler has been cleared to return. That means Chicago supporters can go back to watching Cutler murder their chances of winning by throwing untimely interceptions and carelessly fumbling the ball away.

Cutler would at least have a chance in a regular matchup, but this one will prove to be too difficult. Chicago’s tackle situation is deplorable, so Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter will have their way with the two blockers. The Bears had a great interior line, but both Josh Sitton and Kyle Long are banged up, and neither practiced Tuesday. If both of them are out of the lineup, the Bears won’t be able to block the Vikings whatsoever.

It’s difficult to envision the Bears accumulating many first downs as a result of this. Struggling to block is a big problem in the NFL, especially when battling one of the best defenses in the NFL.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Speaking of being unable to block, that’s exactly why things fell apart for the Vikings in Philadelphia. Connor Barwin and Brandon Graham put heavy pressure on Sam Bradford, who took tons of sacks. This could be an issue again, as the Bears can apply pressure on the quarterback with Willie Young and Leonard Floyd, who will easily beat up on Minnesota’s anemic tackles.

Of course, this isn’t anything new. The Vikings had to battle Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney, a more-potent pair of pass-rushers, prior to the bye, and they had success against Houston. I expect Mike Zimmer and Norv Turner to come up with a more conservative game plan to protect Bradford, whom I expect to rebound, especially if Stefon Diggs is healthier.

RECAP: This line is a bit too high, but I’m not surprised that the books have inflated this number, given the insane amount of public action on the Vikings. The thing is, the sharps aren’t taking the Bears, so some -6s have begun to appear.

I don’t want to bet on a highly backed team on national TV, but for pick-pool purposes, I’m going with the Vikings. They’re one of the two best teams in the NFL, and I have to think that Zimmer, one of the top coaches in the league, will put together a great game plan to avenge last week’s ugly defeat.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line plummeted Wednesday evening, moving from +6 to +4.5. The sharps are taking the Bears, but I think that might be a mistake.

SATURDAY NOTES: Vikings -4 is still available, which is bettable. I may put a unit on them later, but I’ll hold out for -3.5. I don’t see this spread dropping to -3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t have a strong opinion on this game. The spread is right around where it should be, especially with both of Chicago’s starting guards out. I wouldn’t recommend a big bet on the Vikings because there’s so much public action coming in on Minnesota. Vegas lost a ton of money yesterday, so will that trend continue? Perhaps, but I wouldn’t want to stand in the way of the sportsbooks recouping their lost cash. That said, I still think the Vikings are the right side. They’re the better team, and I love getting a great coaching staff coming off a loss. As referenced on my Week 9 NFL Picks page, I’m -$5 heading into Monday night (thanks, Mike McCoy), so I want to bet half of a unit tonight to try to finish in the black. If I lose, oh well; being at -$60 isn’t much worse than -$5.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Everyone is betting the Vikings.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 83% (75,000 bets) 0

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Home Team has won 22 of the last 26 meetings (Vikings won the last 3 meetings).

Mike Zimmer is 29-10 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Bears are 17-9 ATS after losing to the Packers since 1992.

Bears are 6-18 ATS at home since 2013.

Opening Line: Vikings -6.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .

Week 8 NFL Pick: Vikings 23, Bears 12
Vikings -5 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Under 40 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bears 20, Vikings 10

Week 8 NFL Picks – Early Games
Jacksonville at Tennessee, Washington at Cincinnati, NY Jets at Cleveland, Green Bay at Atlanta, Kansas City at Indianapolis, Seattle at New Orleans, Detroit at Houston, New England at Buffalo, Oakland at Tampa Bay

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Saints +8.5, Browns +8.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100

Moneyline: Redskins +140 (0.5 Units) — Push; $0

Moneyline: Packers +140 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline: Browns +115 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline: Colts +125 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline: Chargers +175 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 78-79-6, 49.7% (-$4,565)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 19-25-1, 43.2% (-$1,180)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 15-17, 46.9% (-$1,555)
2024 Season Over-Under: 76-74-2, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$165

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)