NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2015

NFL Picks (Preseason 2015): 7-10-1 (-$1,420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2015): 10-6 (+$940)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2015): 9-7 (-$895)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2015): 7-9 (-$870)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2015): 6-8-1 (-$360)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2015): 6-6-2 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2015): 5-8-1 (-$690)

NFL Picks (2015): 50-54-5 (-$3,240)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 26, 6:15 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 7 NFL Picks – Late Games

Seattle Seahawks (2-4) at San Francisco 49ers (2-4)
Line: Seahawks by 6.5. Total: 42.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Seahawks -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -4.
Thursday, Oct 22, 8:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

WEEK 6 RECAP: Surprise, surprise, another terrible week. I was 5-8-1, -$690. I could whine about the Steelers-Cardinals game being fixed, but that’s just the small picture. The big picture is that I’ve been awful at this since 2011 when the new CBA was signed. I was up until 6 a.m. Monday morning looking over all of my notes from the 2010 season, my best year, and it’s amazing how different the NFL is right now. Things that worked back then don’t anymore. I’ll get to them in a bit, but I will say that I’m going to fundamentally change the way I handicap games going forward. Maybe it’ll work, maybe it won’t, but the results can’t possibly be worse than what they’ve been the past 4-and-a-half seasons.

WEEK 7 BETTING TRENDS: I’ve been discussing overreaction spreads, line movements of two or more against the Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread that weren’t impacted by injuries. They were 5-8-1 ATS in Weeks 2-5, but 35-22 ATS in 2014. Here were the overreaction spreads from Week 6:

Before Week 5	After Week 5
Colts +5	Colts +10.5
Lions -6.5	Lions -3.5
Broncos -5.5	Broncos -3

Another non-winning week in this regard. Just 1-1-1, or either 1-0-2 or 1-2, depending on what lines you had.

Here are the Week 7 overreaction line movements:

Before Week 6	After Week 6
Texans +1.5	Texans +4.5
Colts -6.5	Colts -4.5
Giants -5.5	Giants -3.5

I didn’t agree with Texans +1.5 to begin with, but I find it interesting that just one week after checking privileges, PC Head Coach is now favored by 4.5 points at home. The Colts dropping was a byproduct of the Saints winning on national TV. As for the Cowboys-Giants, it seems as though the spread has dropped to what it should’ve been in the first place.

NEW CBA ERA: The NFL, in terms of betting purposes, has always been divided into different eras. We’re currently in the New CBA Era, and before that, we were in the Realignment Era, which lasted between 2002 and 2010. The NFL changed back in 2002 when the divisions were sorted differently and new rivalries were formed. It also featured the beginning of the new passing rules; illegal contact was implemented after Peyton Manning whined and cried about his receivers being beaten up following a playoff loss to the Patriots.

I didn’t realize it at the time, but when the new CBA was signed, it fundamentally changed the league. With less practice time, the worst teams in the NFL got worse, and there was a greater separation between the best and worst squads in the league. Teams like the Jaguars used to cover all the time, but not anymore. Offensive line play has gotten so much more important because of a lack of practice time. Throw in every-week Thursday and London games, and the NFL is much different now than it was back in 2010.

Here are some examples of things that worked before but don’t now:

1. Teams coming off two consecutive losses of 14-plus…

Realignment Era: 91-62 ATS (59.5%)
New CBA Era: 42-38 ATS (52.5%)

Consecutive losers of two touchdowns or more used to be great bets. These teams would usually rally back after being embarrassed twice in a row. Now, they don’t do that. There’s not enough practice time for them to fix their mistakes.

2. Home favorites coming off a bye in non-divisional games…

Realignment Era: 46-24 ATS (65.7%)
New CBA Era: 15-13 ATS (53.6%)

A bye week used to be great for solid teams. They’d have extra time to shore up some negatives and focus on their next opponent. Now, that’s more difficult because players can’t do any extra work with the time off because the rules prohibit them.

3. Teams coming off a short win (1-3 points) in a high-scoring game (20-plus points) in which they didn’t punt or convert many third downs (1-9):

Realignment Era: 2-30 ATS (6.2%)
New CBA Era: 8-8 ATS (50.0%)

This was one of the craziest systems ever. A 2-30 ATS record was just insane. The thought process was that these fraudulent teams weren’t challenged at all when moving the ball, yet still barely won, so they’d go on to lose the following week as a consequence. That’s not happening anymore.

4. Teams that lost on the road in overtime and weren’t road dogs the following game:

Realignment Era: 10-33 ATS (23.3%)
New CBA Era: 10-14 ATS (41.7%)

Tired teams used to have a big disadvantage. Now, it doesn’t matter all because their opponents don’t have enough practice time to capitalize.

5. Home underdogs coming off 24-point losses (or worse) as underdogs:

Realignment Era: 33-15 ATS (68.8%)
New CBA Era: 11-8 ATS (57.9%)

Here’s another example of bad teams not having enough practice time to rebound.

6. Underdogs that have lost five-plus games in a row, with the most recent defeat being a one-score game:

Realignment Era: 37-22 ATS (62.7%)
New CBA Era: 21-18 ATS (53.8%)

I think you get the point. Bad teams don’t have the resources to bounce back, even when they show signs of life.

7. Double-digit road underdogs:

Realignment Era: 156-147 ATS (51.5%)
New CBA Era: 62-69 ATS (47.3%)

This may not seem like much, but it just shows how different the league is now. You couldn’t blindly take double-digit underdogs in the past, despite what Chad Millman says, but it was generally a winning proposition prior to 2011. Not anymore.

I could list more, but I’m tired. You get the point. I’m going to explore new situations that work. The good news is that I’ve found a couple of interesting things that have been effective in the New CBA Era. For instance…

1. Home teams coming off victories of 1-3 points are just 37-69 ATS since 2011.
2. Double-digit favorites off losses are 26-15 ATS since 2011 (47-53 ATS in the Realignment Era).
3. Teams that have failed to cover the spread in 4+ games are 30-15 ATS on the road since 2011 (47-45 ATS in Realignment Era).

I plan on gutting almost everything I used in the Realignment Era and searching for new things that will work in the current NFL. Here’s to turning this terrible losing around.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks lost to the Panthers to drop to 2-4, but there is a silver lining, which is that Russell Wilson finally got into a groove with Jimmy Graham. I’m not sure how sustainable or consistent that connection will be, however. Wilson just doesn’t have the time to find his weapons, as he is constantly running for his life. The 49ers don’t have a great pass rush, but one isn’t needed to put pressure on Wilson. That’s how bad his line is.

However, Wilson will continue what he does best. He’ll maneuver the pocket and either scramble for first downs or allow his receivers to buy time. The 49ers own a struggling secondary, so the Seattle wideouts should be able to get open.

Of course, the Seahawks will be able to move the chains effectively with Marshawn Lynch. The 49ers have a mediocre rush defense, so Lynch figures to have a dominant performance. Lynch had some tough runs, but was limited to just 54 yards on 17 carries against the Panthers. He stands a much better chance of hitting the century mark in this contest.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: As for the 49ers’ running game, Carlos Hyde was dinged up against the Ravens, but is expected to play because it’s just a bruise. Hyde just watched Jonathan Stewart run well on the Seahawks, but may have a difficult time repeating that success. Seattle was third against the run heading into the Carolina contest, so it may have been a case of the team just looking ahead. Bobby Wagner being out didn’t help matters.

The Seahawks, of course, have had bigger issues against the pass. Kam Chancellor has looked out of shape, while Richard Sherman has been just mediocre this season. However, the Seahawks still aren’t terrible against the pass like the Ravens and Giants are, so Colin Kaepernick doesn’t have nearly as great of a matchup this week.

Kaepernick will also have a tough time dealing with Seattle’s pass rush. The Seahawks couldn’t get to Cam Newton, but Newton happens to actually be well protected. The 49ers, on the other hand, don’t shield Kaepernick very well, as they’re in the bottom five in terms of sacks given up.

RECAP: I like this spot for the Seahawks. Divisional home underdogs usually play poorly at night – the Saints last week were an exception – and bad teams tend to struggle coming off a win, so I don’t expect the 49ers to be at their best here. Sure, it could be argued that it’s their Super Bowl, and it probably is, but Seattle has just as much motivation, given that it has to come away with a victory here to save its season.

The Seahawks have clobbered the 49ers over the years, even winning in San Francisco last year, 19-3. Seattle is worse now, but San Francisco is more inferior compared to its 2014 version. I expect that mastery to continue, as the Seahawks are simply much better. The 49ers’ win over the Ravens last week was a mirage; Baltimore sucks and was also highly unmotivated.

Having said that, I’m going to limit this to one unit because we’re getting an awful line. This spread opened up at -4, but the sharps have bet it up to -6.5. I would’ve loved Seattle at -4 – probably a three-unit selection – but at -6.5, we’ve lost all value.

I’ll be posting NFL Picks on Wednesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No change. I still like the Seahawks for a unit, and I’m disappointed that this number went up so much. It’s a good sign that the spread didn’t drop, indicating that there’s no sharp money on the 49ers. Pinnacle, however, listed Seattle at -6.5 +100, so that seems to indicate that the sharpest book on the Web wants some money on the visitor. If you like the 49ers, by the way, you can get +7 on Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
A big game for both teams.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
Slight money on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 63% (49,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: Home Team has won 11 of the last 13 meetings.

Seahawks are 25-36 ATS on the road since 2006 if they’re not coming off an away loss.

Russell Wilson is 7-5 ATS after a loss as long as he’s not favored by -10 or more.

Opening Line: Seahawks -4.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Seahawks 23, 49ers 13
Seahawks -6.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 42.5 (0 Unit) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 20, 49ers 3

Buffalo Bills (3-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5)
Line: Bills by 3.5. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : No Line (Taylor).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bills -8.
Sunday, Oct 25, 9:30 ET
At Wembley Stadium, London
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The Game. Edge: Bills.

VEGAS UPDATE: The six top-bet teams each week were 13-16-1 against the spread heading into Week 6. How’d they do this past weekend? Take a look:

Patriots -7 – Loss

Falcons -3.5 – Loss

Bengals -3 – Cover

Cardinals -3 – Loss

Giants +4 – Loss

Vikings -4 – Cover

The books were killed in Week 5, but they rebounded quite nicely last weekend. In fact, they did incredibly well, as the Colts alone earned them a ridiculous amount of money.

Here are the six top bets in Week 7, as of Wednesday afternoon (17-18-1 ATS this year):

Falcons -4

Steelers *

Bills -5.5

Chargers -4

Cardinals -7.5

Panthers -3.5

I’m having the Steelers there as a placeholder because they’re bound to get tons of action. The Falcons are as well.

Once again, follow @walterfootball for updates.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: It’s unclear whether Tyrod Taylor or E.J. Manuel will start, but what is known is that Sammy Watkins is highly unlikely to take the field. He’s already considered doubtful after being on crutches during the second half of the Cincinnati game. We’ve already seen the Bills struggle to move the chains without Watkins. However, this is a much easier matchup than Cincinnati provided.

The Jaguars do one thing well on this side of the ball, which is stop the run. Thus, LeSean McCoy may not get much on the ground. However, I expect McCoy to do some damage as a receiver out of the backfield. That’s exactly what Foster did versus Jacksonville this past Sunday, when he caught five balls for 59 receiving yards and a touchdown.

McCoy being able to do this is crucial, as getting rid of the ball quickly will be key for either Taylor or Manuel. The Jaguars don’t have a great pass rush, but they’ll be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage without having to worry about Watkins.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Bills have had a very disappointing pass rush this year, as they’ve gotten to the quarterback only nine times through six games. Jerry Hughes hasn’t been great, but Mario Williams has been the primary culprit. He’s either done or just a bad fit in Rex Ryan’s defense. Either way, Williams and the Bills will have a chance to rebound against the Jaguars, who have a horrible offensive line. Blake Bortles gets no protection, so if Buffalo can’t get to Bortles, we’ll know exactly how bad this front is.

Rattling Bortles early and often will be key because the Jaguars have some solid weapons with Julius Thomas, Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. Bortles hasn’t had much time this season, but on the rare occasions in which he’s enjoyed a clean pocket, he’s been able to connect with these players. The Bills just had issues containing Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert, so stopping Thomas and the two Allens could be problematic.

As for the Jaguars’ running game, T.J. Yeldon’s status is unknown at this time. Yeldon missed last week’s game with a groin issue, and his replacements were highly ineffective against the Texans, who have struggled against the rush. The Bills are somewhat decent against the run, so I don’t like Yeldon’s chances, even if he manages to suit up.

RECAP: There’s a lot of talk going into this game about Mario Williams and Marcell Dareus being unhappy. However, the media tends to overblow things, so I don’t find this that serious. It actually reminds me of the Dolphins last year when Joe Philbin and Ryan Tannehill were supposedly at odds. The perfect remedy for Miami was playing a horrible team, and that’s exactly what Buffalo is doing here.

I like the Bills for two units. This spread is set way too low. I have it at -8, as the Jaguars are an abomination. They couldn’t even beat the Buccaneers and Texans, and the Bills, despite their struggles recently, are a big step up in class. I’ve been stupid for not fading #Forever32 Jacksonville all this time, so I’ll make amends for it now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Tyrod Taylor is out, but this spread is down to -4 (-3.5 at 5Dimes), so I’m going to keep the two units on the Bills. There’s some contrarian money that some of the square books think is sharp action on the Jaguars. No true sharp ever bets the Jaguars.

SUNDAY NOTES: Contrarians continue to pile on the worst team in the NFL for some reason. This number is now -3.5 at plus money in most books. If, for some reason, you want to bet on the #Forever32 Jaguars, you can get +4 at Bovada. For us sane people, two units on the Bills.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Who in their right mind would bet on Jacksonville?

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 70% (17,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Jaguars are 23-51 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Bills -4.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Bills 27, Jaguars 17
Bills -3.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Survivor Pick (3-3) – NFL Survivor Pick Advice
Jaguars 34, Bills 31

Cleveland Browns (2-4) at St. Louis Rams (2-3)
Line: Rams by 6.5. Total: 42.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Rams -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Rams -3.
Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Rams.

HATE MAIL: Lots of hate mail this week, as expected. Here’s the first batch:

The part about my back is totally true. I went to my parents’ house for dinner last Wednesday night, and I threw out my back playing with their dogs in the backyard. It sucks being old!

Here’s one I didn’t even have to answer:

That’s like one of the few things I got right last weekend. The Vikings won by six despite constantly shooting themselves in the foot constantly. They could’ve won by 14-17 points quite easily. The Chiefs are terrible.

I hate people like this:

How about you get a job instead of spending your entire life b****ing and complaining on the Internet?

Here’s some from idiot Patriot fans, who thought their team could cover double digits on the road against a good opponent:

Derp, derp, and derp. I know some Patriot fans who are actually smart, so if you aren’t a mouth-breather who cheers for New England, like these idiots, no need to inform me of your existence. I know you’re out there.

I get a kick whenever someone thinks picking NFL games is easy…

It’s hilarious that guy got destroyed. I wonder what his Monopoly money count is down to now.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: History could be made in this game. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Todd Gurley breaks the single-game rushing mark of 296, set by Adrian Peterson.

Gurley might just be the best running back in the NFL right now. In his two full games, he has rushed for 146 and 159 yards against the Cardinals and Packers, respectively. Arizona and Green Bay are 15th and 21st versus the rush in terms of YPC, and those rankings would be much better had they not battled Gurley. The Browns? They’re 31st, and they’ve surrendered an average of 146.8 rushing yards per contest this year, and this has been against backs like Bishop Sankey, Melvin Gordon and Latavius Murray. Gurley isn’t even in the same league as those players; one team told us prior to the 2015 NFL Draft that they believed Gurley was “the next Jim Brown.” Gurley, consequently, could break 200 if the flow of the game goes well, and 300 definitely isn’t impossible.

The Browns are average in terms of generating a pass rush and stopping aerial attacks, so Nick Foles could have a decent outing if he needs to throw a lot. That’s unlikely though, as Gurley is bound to pick up chunks of yardage every time he throws the ball.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Josh McCown posted terrific numbers himself earlier in the season. He eclipsed the 400-yard plateau against the Ravens, which was impressive, even when considering the matchup. However, much like the Broncos last week, the Rams provide a tougher matchup that could slow down McCown.

The Browns will have a difficult time here, as their horrible offensive line, which has surrendered more than three sacks per game, has to go up against the team that is tied for the third-most sacks in the NFL this year. The Rams’ stout defensive front should be able to bully the Browns, making life extremely difficult for McCown. I’m sure McCown will release many of his passes quickly, getting the ball to Duke Johnson and Travis Benjamin as fast as possible, but it may not be enough.

Unlike the Rams, Cleveland doesn’t have a potent ground attack to offset any issues in the passing game. Mike Pettine is up to his old tricks, using inferior backs instead of his better players. This time, it’s Robert Turbin, who can’t do anything but fall forward for 2-yard flops. It’s horrible. I have no idea what Pettine is thinking. Perhaps he needs his general manager to text him more plays.

RECAP: I don’t have a strong opinion here. I think this line is too high; I have it set at -3. This does not indicate that I believe these teams are equal; rather, the Rams are not getting three points for being hosts. They have no homefield advantage because they barely have any fans. There could be more Cleveland supporters in the crowd, as odd as that may seem. Also, call me crazy, but I don’t like laying more than a field goal with mediocre (at best) teams that don’t have an explosive offense. The only way I’d go against this rule were if the Rams were playing the #Forever32 Jaguars.

So, why not put money on Cleveland? Well, aside from the fact that Gurley could run all over them, I don’t like their spot, as they’re coming off an emotional loss against the Broncos. They could be flat. I will pick them for zero units, however.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public has moved this up to -6.5, but it’s telling that it hasn’t crossed -7 yet. There hasn’t been any sharp buyback on the Browns yet. For the record, Pinnacle wants money on the Browns. I have no strong opinion on this game.

SUNDAY NOTES: There was finally some sharp action on the Browns at +6.5. This spread is now +6 everywhere, except for Bovada (+6.5 -115). I still have no interest in this game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

I’m surprised the Rams are getting so much action.

Percentage of money on St. Louis: 69% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Jeff Fisher is 8-2 ATS off a bye in the regular season since 2002.

Opening Line: Rams -4.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Rams 20, Browns 17
Browns +6.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Rams 24, Browns 6

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-5)
Line: Chiefs by 3. Total: 42.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : No Line (Roethlisberger).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -4.
Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Steelers.

If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It’s free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. There’s no reason not to enter. Click the link to register!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: There is no spread posted as of this writing because it’s unclear if Ben Roethlisberger will play. It sounds as though he has a legitimate chance to take the field, but the Steelers have told the media that they’re preparing as if Landry Jones will be under center on Sunday. This is probably the right move. At 4-2, the Steelers could afford a loss, especially with a matchup against Cincinnati on deck.

Having said that, Pittsburgh might be able to vanquish the Chiefs anyway. I know some of the talking heads on TV won’t ever admit to it because they have a hard-on for the dog-killing quarterback, but Jones is so much better than QBDK. He was actually capable of completing forward passes, something QBDK couldn’t do. QBDK had negative net yards for most of the afternoon. Jones stepped in and was an immediate upgrade. He has a great matchup this week against the Chiefs, who have surrendered 249 passing yards to every team they’ve faced. Though this is just Jones’ first start, he should thrive considering all of the talented weapons he has at his disposal.

What the Chiefs do well on this side of the ball is stop the rush, thanks to Jaye Howard, who is having a fantastic season. However, it’s extremely difficult to contain Le’Veon Bell, as the Cardinals learned this past Sunday when he rushed for 88 yards on 24 carries against them despite the fact that they had a top-15 ground defense.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs didn’t have an explosive scoring unit to begin with, but they are so much weaker on this side of the ball now than they were at the start of the season. That, of course, is because Jamaal Charles is out for the season. Kansas City has posted just 10 points in six quarters without Charles, and it’s easy to understand why. Charles is one of the most dynamic players in the NFL, and the Chiefs don’t have the quarterback to compensate for his absence.

The coaching staff apparently liked Charcandrick West as a replacement for Charles, but West proved to be a disappointment against the Vikings. West barely did anything, and he’ll have issues finding running room against the Steelers, who stop the run well. Save for the Baltimore loss, Pittsburgh hasn’t given up more than 79 rushing yards to any opponent this year, and it just did a great job of shutting down Chris Johnson, who is so much better than West.

All of this means that Alex Smith will have to move the chains on his own. This is very problematic, especially given that he could be without Jeremy Maclin, who was concussed at Minnesota. Maclin being out means the offense will be even worse, so it doesn’t seem like Smith will be able to take advantage of Pittsburgh’s secondary. He’s protected poorly as well, so that’s something else to keep in mind.

RECAP: There’s no spread on this game, so check back later or follow @walterfootball for updates. I’m definitely taking the Steelers, but I don’t know for how many units yet. The Chiefs are an abomination, and they’re in a bad spot because they play in London next week. The Steelers, meanwhile, are so much better now that QBDK is out of the picture.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Excluding the number in the Pats-Colts game, this is the dumbest spread I’ve seen all year. It makes no sense. It says that the Steelers, even without Ben Roethlisberger, are equal to the Chiefs, which isn’t true, especially with Jamaal Charles out. Pittsburgh has the better offense and defense, and Kansas City has some inner turmoil going on as well. The Chiefs are also going into London, so they’re the worse team in the worse spot.

The Steelers would be a slam-dunk high-unit pick if it weren’t for one thing: the betting action. There’s a good amount of money on the Steelers, so there could be some shady Kansas City cover, given that the Rooney family made its fortune sportsbooking when it was legal. Strange things in terms of the spread always seem to happen in Pittsburgh contests, so I wouldn’t go too crazy with this game. I would, however, be comfortable with a two-unit wager on the Steelers.

SUNDAY NOTES: There’s sharp action on the Chiefs, and Pinnacle wants money on Pittsburgh. I don’t understand this, as Kansas City is the worse team in the worse spot, and it’s missing two of its three best offensive players.

The Psychology. Edge: TBA.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

A decent amount of action on the Steelers, so you know what that means…

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 67% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

Steelers are 1-8 ATS on the road as favorites of -9 or more since 2004. ???

Steelers are 16-26 ATS as road favorites since 2007.

Steelers are 8-19 ATS as road favorites coming off a win under Mike Tomlin.

Chiefs are 9-3 ATS as home underdogs of 6+ since 1989. ???

Chiefs are 12-29 ATS as home underdogs of 1-5.5 points since 2007. ???

Chiefs are 29-17 ATS in October since 2002.

Opening Line: Chiefs -2.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Steelers 24, Chiefs 9
Steelers +3 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 23, Steelers 13

Houston Texans (2-4) at Miami Dolphins (2-3)
Line: Dolphins by 4.5. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Dolphins -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Dolphins -4.
Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I normally like to make corny jokes here, but I need to talk about something serious first. As some of you may have heard, the idiots in the government are trying to argue that daily fantasy (FanDuel, Draft Kings, etc.) is gambling, and therefore should be illegal. For those of you, like me, who believe DFS should remain legal and the government should actually focus on things to, I don’t know, actually help improve this country, keep reading. If you’re a moron in the government, f*** off.

Daily Fantasy is not hurting anyone. It’s fun to play and makes Sundays more exciting. The government needs to be stopped from once again ruining this country with its archaic laws. Please help keep FanDuel and the other DFS sites going by signing this petition here.

Even if you don’t play DFS, please sign this so that we can keep our freedom and tell the overbearing government a**holes to go f*** themselves.

2. I’m pretty pissed off. Actually, I’ve been pissed off since last Thanksgiving. More pissed off than usual, in fact!

This is because my sister is getting married. I’m happy for her, and I like her fiance just fine, and I was in good spirits until she announced the date: this Sunday!

Yes, I’ll be missing Sunday football for the first time in my life. This wouldn’t have been a major issue if I were just a regular fan, but I run this Web site as my full-time job. The revenue I accumulate is how I pay my mortgage and my employees. Thus, missing an important day like a football Sunday is borderline catastrophic for my business.

I was so enraged when I first heard this. “I’m not going!” I shouted, but my girlfriend talked me down. I am going now, but I was dreading this upcoming weekend for the longest time. I just couldn’t believe it. She’s not a football fan, but how can a guy schedule his wedding on a football Sunday? Sunday weddings are the worst anyway, unless the following Monday is a holiday because people can’t drink heavily unless they take off the next day. It’s like, why don’t you want people to have any fun at your wedding? Why not do it on a Saturday night? Or how about a Sunday prior to Labor Day or Memorial Day, or whatnot? That would be so much better.

I was dreading this weekend for the longest time. I knew that because I’d miss all day Sunday, I’d have to make it up afterward, so there was a very realistic chance that I wouldn’t be sleeping for 48 hours. It would be the week from hell.

Fortunately, I have great employees. Without me knowing, Charlie Campbell talked to Chet Gresham and Pat Yasinskas, and they’ve offered to cover every game this Sunday. So, save for the Thursday and Monday night games, as well as the Bills-Jaguars London contest, since I don’t have to be there until 1:30, they’ll be doing the entire NFL Game Recaps page this week. So, with that in mind, thanks Charlie, Chet and Pat, for making my life so much incredibly easier! I look forward to actually sleeping and not being incredibly angry at my sister’s wedding. I’ll just be the normal sort of angry I usually am!

3. A quick word on Johnny Manziel, also known as Johnny Football, or perhaps Johnny Doucheball. If you haven’t heard, Manziel reportedly got into an argument with his girlfriend recently. As it turns out, Manziel allegedly assaulted her as well, as she took pictures of herself with bruises. While it’s always possible that someone like her could be lying, the NFL still needs to step in and suspend Johnny Doucheball for six games.

In the wake of these pictures being surfaced, is there anyone in the world naive enough who believes Johnny Doucheball didn’t do this? Johnny Doucheball is, well, a douche. I said it at the time, but his trip to rehab was such an obvious PR move, orchestrated by either his agent or the Browns. Despite this, many morons in the media believed that Johnny Doucheball was a changed man. Please. People usually don’t change unless they have a life-altering experience, and even then, it’s hit-or-miss. A couple of months in “rehab” couldn’t possibly prevent Johnny Doucheball from being, well, a douche. He’s still the same idiot who rolls $20s in bathrooms, and now he allegedly hits women.

I’m going to take it a step further and say that the Browns should cut Johnny Doucheball. Forget the fact that he sucks at football; he’s a horrible human being and is definitely a negative influence on the locker room. Cleveland needs to cut ties with him as soon as possible.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins were dead on this side of the ball prior to their post-London bye. Ryan Tannehill was atrocious, Lamar Miller didn’t have any running room, and the offensive line couldn’t block. Things appear to be much different now. Branden Albert is back at left tackle, which is huge because he’s very talented. Meanwhile, PC Head Coach has his players actually being focused and playing tough, almost as if he got mad at them because they didn’t think Caitlyn Jenner was a hero.

Tannehill should put together another quality performance. The Texans don’t have anyone who can get to the quarterback, aside from J.J. Watt, who is consequently double- or triple-teamed on every play. With the blocking unit better now that Albert has returned to the blind side, Tannehill should have plenty of time to find his receivers downfield amid a secondary that will be down a starting cornerback.

The Texans’ rush defense isn’t very good either. It’s not bad, but the team has given up 96-plus rushing yards to three of five opponents. This is not a good time to be seeing Miller, as the Dolphins’ improved offensive line will open up running lanes for him.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: I like the Texans much more with Brian Hoyer. I don’t think Ryan Mallett would have much of a chance against the Dolphins, but Hoyer’s shot at succeeding depends heavily on how legitimate Miami’s stop unit is. The Dolphins struggled mightily prior to the bye, but they showed great signs of improvement this past week. That, however, could be misleading because they played the Titans, who never had a chance once Marcus Mariota got hurt on a dirty hit.

It’s not like Hoyer is better than Mariota, or anything, but he at least has two terrific options at his disposal. One is DeAndre Hopkins, who has become one of the most dominant receivers in the NFL. Hopkins can’t be covered, so the Dolphins will have to smother him with two defenders. If they don’t, Hopkins is going to rack up massive receiving numbers against a secondary that has some major issues.

Hoyer’s other talented weapon is Arian Foster, who finally looked like he was back last week. The nine days off did wonders for Foster, who exploded for 112 net yards – and this was against a Jacksonville defense that is actually good against the run. The Dolphins were run over by Chris Ivory prior to the bye, and while they did shut down Tennessee’s ground attack this past week, it’s easy to be skeptical, given that the Titans might have the worst group of running backs in the NFL.

RECAP: This spread has moved from -1.5 to -5.5 (opener) in just one week. The Dolphins looked better, but they were playing an awful team with an injured quarterback. The Texans stink, too, but they are better with Hoyer at the helm. Thus, I think the opening number was inflated.

I really like the Texans for a couple of other reasons. First, the Dolphins will be looking ahead to playing the Patriots on Thursday. Favorites going into Thursday games have a horrible track record of covering, even in the New CBA Era. Not only is it a contest on three days of rest, but Miami will be battling its arch rival. Second, the Dolphins are atrocious at home. Just look at some of the numbers below. They have no homefield advantage whatsoever.

I’m taking Houston for three units. This would be an even larger bet if I trusted the Texans more, but I think they’re definitely the right side in this matchup.

There are a lot of Texans +4 numbers out there, but Bovada is still offering +4.5. I want to lock that in, as the sharps have already bet this number down from +5.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I screwed up on this one, as the spread has risen to -5. There’s some sharp money on the Texans, but not very much. Still, I like Houston for three units.

SUNDAY NOTES: This spread is back down to +4. The professional money has been on the Texans this whole week.

The Psychology. Edge: Texans.

A Breather Alert for the Dolphins, who have the Patriots (on Thursday), Bills and Eagles after this game.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

A good lean on the Dolphins.

Percentage of money on Miami: 66% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Underdog is 62-31 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 93 games.

Dolphins are 6-18 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more since 2008.

Dolphins are 3-10 ATS as a favorite coming off a SU win as an underdog since 2007.

Dolphins are 9-29 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Dolphins -5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Dolphins 24, Texans 23
Texans +4.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Dolphins 44, Texans 26

New York Jets (4-1) at New England Patriots (5-0)
Line: Patriots by 7. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Patriots -9.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -7.
Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Patriots.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. I have to say that Rod Gilmore is my favorite college football color analyst. I feel like I learn something every time I listen to one of his games. However, Gilmore’s best attribute is his Game of Thrones references. If you missed it, he had this to say during the Utah-Arizona State game:

“The middle of the field is dark and full of terrors, but Travis Wilson is the Lord of Light.”

Wow, what a reference! Very apt, too, considering what happened in the game. Unfortunately, the play-by-play guy clearly wasn’t a Game of Thrones fan, so he didn’t really know how to respond. The appropriate thing to say would be, “You’re lucky I’m not a red priest, Rod, or I’d burn you at the stake for saying Wilson is R’hlor.”

2. Saturday’s slate in terms of my college football picks was dark and full of terrors, that’s for sure. I had Louisville, and the team was up 14-13 in the second half, yet it lost and failed to cover despite being decent-sized underdogs. I wouldn’t call that a bad beat though. The true bad beat of Saturday was in that very same Utah-Arizona State contest.

Scott Van Pelt and Stanford Steve mentioned this in their Bad Beats segment because it was brutal. The Sun Devils were leading 18-14 in the middle of the fourth quarter as touchdown underdogs. It appeared as though they had the cover in the bag, but a Utah touchdown and field goal, thanks to poor special teams plays, made it 24-18 with just a few minutes left. Arizona State then fumbled the ball on a botched handoff, but the Italian quarterback pounced on it – except that he somehow didn’t recover. Despite the fact that he was the only person around the ball, Utah somehow got possession and kicked a short field goal to make it 27-18.

But that’s not all. The Sun Devils drove deep into Utah territory and appeared to be in field-goal range. However, two horrible dropped passes made it third-and-long, and the Italian quarterback – don’t want to look up that spelling – took a big sack to knock the team out of kicking range. An Alex Smith-type pass failed to move the chains on fourth-and-forever, and Utah took over on downs. The Utes ran a long touchdown when Arizona State stopped trying, so that would explain the extra score at the end. This dropped me to 1-4 on the day when I should’ve been an underwhelming, but not terrible 2-3.

3. I guess the worst beat of the day had to be at Michigan, right? The Wolverines weren’t going to cover, but there were plenty of people who had them on the moneyline or in a teaser. They were going to win until they botched a punt, allowing Michigan State to take it back for six. So, even though I lost brutally with Arizona State, I guess I can’t feel too terrible because I wasn’t part of that. And the worst part? Gilmore wasn’t featured on the Michigan-Michigan State telecast to offer up some awesome Game of Thrones references as a consolation.

By the way, I need to say this: Mark May is an idiot. May argued that the Wolverines shouldn’t have punted, but instead had the quarterback run around and waste the remaining time. Do I have to explain how stupid this is? What if the snap was botched? What if the quarterback was sacked quickly? What if he fumbled? What if he threw a pick? What if he didn’t take the entire clock down? I’d be willing to bet that if Michigan did that, May would have argued that Jim Harbaugh should’ve punted. As a legendary running back once said, hindsight is 50-50.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Tom Brady played well against the Colts, but wasn’t as dominant as many expected him to be. There were two reasons for this. The first was that Julian Edelman broke/dislocated his finger. Edelman had two drops and had the ball bounce off his hands and into Mike Adams’ for a pick-six. It’s not clear what Edelman’s status is. If Edelman is limited again, Brady won’t be as effective. He’ll still be on track to score plenty of points, but he won’t move the chains as consistently.

The second reason was Marcus Cannon exiting the game. The injury to Nate Solder wasn’t very huge in that Cannon wasn’t a big step down. Cameron Fleming, however, definitely was. There’s a chance Cannon could be back this week, as his toe issue is considered minor, but then again, we’ve seen such maladies keep big football players out longer than expected. The Jets are getting more pressure on the quarterback now with Sheldon Richardson back in the lineup, so Cannon’s availability is huge.

It’s extra significant considering that the Patriots will have to throw to win. They won’t be able to hand the ball off to LeGarrette Blount and expect big things again. The Jets own the league’s top ground defense, so they won’t have to dedicate any extra defenders to the box to slow down Blount or Dion Lewis.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets, on the other hand, figure to have success pounding the rock with Chris Ivory early and often. The Patriots have the sixth-worst rush defense in the NFL in terms of YPC, and Chris Ivory has been an animal this season. Ivory could have another strong performance, eclipsing the century mark with ease.

This is very fortunate for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who won’t have to do much. Fitzpatrick sucks, but he’s getting a ton of help right now from Ivory, his offensive line and receiving corps. Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker have a tough matchup against a secondary that’s playing much better than expected, but they’re both talented enough to get open on short routes when Fitzpatrick will be throwing in favorable situations.

Meanwhile, Fitzpatrick will probably be protected very well. The Patriots have a terrific pass rush, but the Jets have surrendered just two sacks all year, which is just unreal. Given that Fitzpatrick will be in short down-and-distance spots, I can’t see New England rattling him very much.

RECAP: This number is lower than I thought it would be, but I still think it’s too high. My number is Patriots -7, so we’re getting two points of value, according to my calculations.

I like this spot for the Jets. New England is coming off a revenge game and has to play in four days against rival Miami. New York, meanwhile, will be dying to take down its nemesis. Also, the Patriots usually don’t cover these high numbers unless they’re playing the #Forever32 Jaguars.

Having said that, this is just a one-unit play. I want to be careful with motivation going forward. Part of what I researched this week was that my picks in which I took the inferior team with motivation have bombed. Motivation is still important – see the Jets-Eagles and 49ers-Ravens results – but only when the two teams are equal, or the more-motivated squad happens to be better. The Patriots are obviously superior, but they’re close enough in my NFL Power Rankings (Nos. 2 and 11) that I’d consider a small wager on the Jets.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Despite the spread dropping because of some public action, I’m going to keep this as a one-unit wager. The Patriots are in a bad spot, so New York should cover. The sharps haven’t really weighed in.

SUNDAY NOTES: Sharp money has taken this down to +7, and you need -120 to bet the Jets in most books right now.

The Psychology. Edge: Jets.

The Patriots just got their revenge, and now they’re big favorites prior to playing on Thursday night versus Miami. Meanwhile, this is a big statement game for the Jets.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New England: 55% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 20 of the last 25 meetings.

History: Home Team has won 10 of the last 13 meetings.

Jets are 9-3 ATS as underdogs of 7+ since 2010.

Patriots are 45-32 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Tom Brady is 180-59 as a starter (136-98 ATS).

Tom Brady is 22-30 ATS as a home favorite of -9 or more (12-23 ATS since November 2007).

Opening Line: Patriots -9.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Patriots 26, Jets 20
Jets +7 (1 Unit) — Push; $0
Under 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 30, Jets 23

Minnesota Vikings (3-2) at Detroit Lions (1-5)
Line: Pick. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Vikings -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: .
Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Vikings.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Five years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for the 2013 season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses. In 2014, Donald Sterling answered spammers.

This week, I have a new Spam Mail in which some person told me he was robbed on vacations in Manila. How could I possibly help!? Check out the link.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Matthew Stafford has struggled all season, but he managed to have a strong week against the Bears. This was predictable, as Chicago has a pretty soft pass defense. Unfortunately for Stafford, the Vikings are much stronger in this regard.

Minnesota has a secondary that’s playing extremely well right now. The team is ranked eighth in terms of YPA, giving up a 6.78 figure to opposing passers. The secondary is performing well, but the key to the Vikings’ success versus aerial attacks has been their ability to get to the quarterback. They haven’t racked up a high sack total, but they’ve pressured their foes constantly. Stafford, stationed behind a very weak offensive line, could be in big trouble.

The Vikings are at their weakest on this side of the ball when it comes to stopping the run, but this won’t be much of an issue in this particular matchup. Detroit doesn’t pound the ball well because of some pedestrian blocking, and the team’s mediocre runners aren’t helping matters.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Unlike the Lions, the Vikings won’t have much trouble establishing the run. Adrian Peterson had some difficulty getting established versus the Chiefs, but they happen to maintain a strong stop unit. Detroit doesn’t, ranking 23rd in that regard in terms of YPC. The Lions are just two weeks removed from surrendering 191 yards on the ground to the Cardinals. If Chris Johnson was successful, imagine what Peterson will be able to do.

Peterson will open things up for Teddy Bridgewater, who played well last week except for some red-zone miscues. Bridgewater didn’t have much resistance against the Chiefs, who have allowed every quarterback to throw for 249-plus yards, but it’s not like the Lions are much better. In fact, they’re even worse. They’re dead last in terms of YPA, and there aren’t an signs of improvement. They couldn’t even stop Jay Cutler last week.

RECAP: I mentioned earlier that I am going to avoid picking inferior/bad teams when they’re more motivated. But what about a better team in a great spot? The Vikings qualify as such this week, and that’s why they’re one of my top plays.

The Vikings are a much better squad than the Lions. I have them 10th in my NFL Power Rankings. Some may think that’s too high, but I’m a believer, and I’ve done very well in their games over the past two seasons. They have a great running attack and an outstanding defense. They’re also very well coached. Bridgewater isn’t great, but he’s solid most of the time. There’s a reason Minnesota has covered every single contest this year, save for the opener, which was a terrible spot for them because it was a very late game against a highly motivated opponent.

The Lions, meanwhile, are dreadful. They can’t pass protect or rush the ball. They can’t stop the pass or the run. They barely beat the woeful Bears at home, and that was with the assistance of a senile official!

To top it off, Detroit is coming off an emotional, overtime win, and is going into London next week. Teams playing prior to London are 6-18 against the spread. That’s just awful, and it makes sense that they’d have such a poor covering rate.

I don’t think the Lions will show up to this game, and the superior Vikings will handle this pretty easily as a result. Five units on Minnesota.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has dropped to -1 or even pick in some places, which doesn’t make any sense to me. Don’t people realize how bad of a spot a pre-London game is? I still love the Vikings.

SUNDAY NOTES: Much like the Steelers-Chiefs game, there is sharp action on the worse team in the worse spot. I don’t get it.

The Psychology. Edge: Vikings.

The Lions fly out to London after this game. They’re coming off an emotional win.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 52% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Vikings have won 25 of the last 32 meetings.

Opening Line: Vikings -2.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Vikings 23, Lions 6
Vikings PK (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Under 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Vikings 28, Lions 19

Atlanta Falcons (5-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-4)
Line: Falcons by 5.5. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Falcons -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Falcons -7.
Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Falcons.

Video of the Week: Chris R. sent this over. What would Indianapolis’ fake punt (or as Matvei called it, the “Snapping Turtle”) look like if you could run the play in Tecmo Bowl?

It’s sad when Tecmo Bowl even laughs at you.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: There’s no line posted on this game because Marcus Mariota’s status is unknown. Mariota suffered an injury against the Dolphins on a dirty hit, and while he played through it, he clearly wasn’t himself. I could see the Titans giving him a week off to recover, but then again he’s still their best chance of winning, even at less than 100 percent, so perhaps he’ll suit up. It’s very unclear at this point.

Regardless, the Titans appear set to have an unfavorable situation at quarterback. Whether it’s Mariota or Zach Mettenberger, he’ll be going up against a solid secondary that should be able to take away Kendall Wright. However, Delanie Walker figures to have success after seeing what Ben Watson did to this stop unit on Thursday.

Walker may not be enough, however. The Falcons couldn’t stop the Saints because Drew Brees was effective. Neither quarterback will play like that, and the Titans don’t have the running game to make up for it. They might have the weakest running back group in the NFL, and the Falcons are pretty good at stopping the rush.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: You can bet, however, that the Falcons will be able to run the ball extremely well. Devonta Freeman is on fire, and the Titans just surrendered 166 yards on the ground to Lamar Miller and the Miami offense, despite the fact that Miller was struggling beforehand. Tennessee has a bottom-five rush defense, so Freeman might be able to have his best game yet.

It doesn’t get any better for the Titans farther away from the line of scrimmage. They also own a bottom-five pass defense in terms of YPA, as they have some major holes in their secondary. I definitely expect Matt Ryan to exploit those weaknesses, as Julio Jones, with nine days off, should be able to fully recover from his injury.

RECAP: Speaking of those nine days, that’s one of the reasons I like the Falcons. They’ve been stewing off their loss to the Saints all this time, so I like their chances of rebounding. Dan Quinn is a much better coach than Ken Whisenhunt, so I like that he’s had an extra few days to game plan against Tennessee. He and Kyle Shanahan will coach circles around Whisenhunt.

The Falcons are also in a good spot, as teams in their second-consecutive road game have enjoyed a great covering rate over the years. However, I’m going to limit this selection to just two units. I’m concerned with all of the public money coming in on the visitor. Atlanta is the No. 1 bet team this week, so it’s possible that there could be shenanigans.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Vegas has a huge liability on this game, but the sharps aren’t taking the Titans. Given how much the house won last week, losing this contest won’t be a huge deal. I still like the Falcons.

SUNDAY NOTES: Some professional money has taken this down to +5/+5.5. It might be contrarian shrap action, however. The Titans are another host that happens to be the worse team in the worse spot.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

All the money on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 93% (43,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Falcons are 20-8 ATS following a loss of 6+ in the previous 28 instances.

Matt Ryan is 14-10 ATS as a road favorite (9-7 ATS outdoors).

Titans are 21-12 ATS in non-conference home games.

Opening Line: Falcons -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Falcons 27, Titans 16
Falcons -5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Falcons 10, Titans 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) at Washington Redskins (2-4)
Line: Redskins by 3. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Redskins -5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Redskins -4.
Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

I’ve been citing that Tom Brady has lost his “clutch” ability over the past few years, but I guess I can’t do that any longer because he just won his fourth Super Bowl. Or, can I…? Brady, after all, reached the “Big Game” with the help of his deflated footballs.

Brady was stuck on three Super Bowls for a long time before he resorted to cheating. So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona. Including this one…

To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins have reached the stage of their season in which Jay Gruden has to defend Kirk Cousins and still call him his starting quarterback. This is one or two weeks before Gruden actually benches Cousins and plays Colt McCoy instead. McCoy will be solid for one game, but then will be completely helpless for 2-3 weeks, and this will prompt Gruden to replace him with Robert Griffin to “see what he has for next year.” This will be followed by Griffin being terrible, and then it’ll be back to Cousins. It’s the circle of life in Washington.

Cousins isn’t very good, but it’s not like he’s had much of a chance. The offensive line is in shambles, and his top receiver, DeSean Jackson has been out. Guard Shawn Lauvao has been missing since the New York contest, and both left tackle Trent Williams and center Kory Lichstensteiger were absent for the Jets contest. As a result, the Redskins, who used to have a strong rushing attack because they were able to pound the ball behind Williams and Lauvao, couldn’t even muster two yards per carry. The Buccaneers aren’t good versus the run, but they aren’t terrible either, so if Williams is out again, Washington won’t be able to run once again. Fortunately for the Redskins, Williams returned to practice and told the media that he feels fine.

Williams will obviously be huge for Cousins’ pass protection as well. And yes, it will matter in this matchup. Thanks to William Gholston’s emergence, the Buccaneers are actually tied for eighth in the NFL in sacks with 15, so they’ll apply heavy pressure on Cousins if Williams misses another contest.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers can’t pass protect well either, but there is at least some hope coming; Demar Dotson is set to return in two games, and he’ll provide a big boost on the edge. In the meantime, however, Tampa will continue to surrender bunches of sacks, and the Redskins, who are in the middle of the pack in terms of getting to the quarterback, will definitely put heavy heat on Jameis Winston.

Winston has a great matchup despite the pass-protection woes, as the Redskins’ secondary is in shambles. Ryan Fitzpatrick misfired on just six attempts, for crying out loud. However, Winston is the ultimate wild card. He could show up and perform well like he did at New Orleans, or he could have one of his four-interception duds like we saw in the opener versus Tennessee. He has upside, but he’s one of the most untrustworthy quarterbacks in the NFL.

The Buccaneers can limit the picks by establishing Doug Martin. The Redskins defended the rush extremely well at the beginning of the year, but they’ve been shredded on the ground by Atlanta and New York in consecutive weeks, as the teams combined for a ridiculous 346 rushing yards. Martin isn’t as good as Devonta Freeman or Chris Ivory, but he still stands a good chance of having a strong performance.

RECAP: The Buccaneers tend to play better on the road, while the Redskins don’t have much of a homefield advantage. However, that’s the only edge I see in this contest, so I’ll be taking the visitor for zero units. I can’t imagine putting money on Tampa because Winston could easily toss four interceptions, but then again, laying more than a field goal with the Redskins seems like an even worse idea.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I can’t make any sense of this game, and I guess the sharps can’t either because they haven’t touched either side.

SUNDAY NOTES: Contrarian/sharp money has dropped this to +3. I don’t see why anyone would bet this game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
A slight amount of money on the Redskins.

Percentage of money on Washington: 64% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Road Team is 59-35 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Lovie Smith is 2-7 ATS off a bye.

Redskins are 6-21 ATS as home favorites of more than 4 since 2000. ???

Opening Line: Redskins -3.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Redskins 24, Buccaneers 23
Buccaneers +3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Redskins 31, Buccaneers 30

New Orleans Saints (2-4) at Indianapolis Colts (3-3)
Line: Colts by 4. Total: 51.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Colts -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Colts -8.
Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Colts.

Survivor Update: We had 2,653 people enter, and had 2,282 still alive after Week 1. And then, Week 2 happened. The Colts, Saints, Ravens and Dolphins murdered almost everyone, and as a consequence, there were only 164 players remaining. We’re now down to 48 now, as Baltimore burned a few people last week.

If you’re still alive, make sure you get your WalterFootball.com 2015 NFL Survivor Pool pick in.

Oh, and, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Andrew Luck still isn’t 100 percent, but he at least is way more effective than he was at the beginning of the season. He moved the chains well against the Patriots at times, at least in the first half and garbage time. New England’s defense isn’t the same as it was last year, but it’s still decent. It’s definitely much better than what the Saints have happening on this side of the ball.

The Saints are 31st against the pass in terms of YPA, which is not good news when going up against a stellar quarterback like Luck. They have some decent pieces in their secondary – Delvin Breaux has been a nice surprise, while Kenny Vaccaro has rebounded well – but there are just too many holes for Luck to exploit with his talented weapons. New Orleans can neutralize this a bit by getting to Luck; it sacked Matt Ryan a whopping five times on Thursday night, and as we all know, Luck isn’t protected very well.

The running game will help assist Luck, however. The Saints are 30th versus the rush (4.97 YPC), as they’ve surrendered five 100-yard performances in their six games this year. Frank Gore will likely make sure it’s six of seven.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Like the Colts, the Saints have been a bit of a disappointment on the offensive side of the ball this year. Luck’s shoulder and poor offensive line is to blame, and Drew Brees has had similar issues. He isn’t protected well, but instead of an injury, he’s battling old age. Brees is still effective at times, as the Falcons just learned, but he’s no longer the lethal quarterback who was throwing 5,000 yards per season with ease.

Having said that, Brees should be able to take advantage of the Colts’ secondary. The issues there are well-documented, as the previous four quarterbacks who have battled New Orleans have all thrown for at least 298 yards. There’s no reason to think that Brees couldn’t be the fifth, especially now that he has some positive momentum going in the wake of his upset over Atlanta. Perhaps he’ll target Ben Watson heavily again.

It should be noted that the Colts, despite struggling to tackle LeGarrette Blount once again, are surprisingly competent against the run. Even with Blount’s performance, they’ve surrendered just 3.87 YPC this year, which places them 14th in the rankings. Still, with so much focus on Brees, Mark Ingram should have a decent afternoon with the holes opening up for him.

RECAP: This is my other top play this week. I love the Colts.

I mentioned that the Vikings are a good/superior team in a great spot. Indianapolis is as well. The Saints are coming off an emotional victory that saved their season. They’ve been hearing about how great that win was for the past nine days, and it seems as though everyone has forgotten that this very same team went into Philadelphia and got blasted in a complete blowout. It was a one-sided affair, and I think the Colts are better than the Eagles. They’re at least equal, so why can’t Indianapolis demolish New Orleans as well?

As much as I like betting against bad teams coming off victories, I love wagering on Luck following a loss even more. Luck is 13-3 against the spread after a defeat, and he also has a great track record at home.

On top of all of that, this spread is way too low. The advance number last week was Colts -6.5, yet it dropped 2.5 points because the Saints beat the Falcons in a very emotional game. That’s absurd. My calculated line is Colts -8, so this is way off.

I’m taking Indianapolis for five units. I love them this week. I’m also locking them in now, as some books are listing this as -4. This spread has dropped since it opened at -5.5, but I think this is phantom movement so that the sharps can get a better number to bet the Colts later in the week. There’s no reason to wager on the Saints.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m still big on the Colts, and the spread is now beginning to rise, as expected. I’d lock this in at -4 if you still can.

SUNDAY NOTES: As expected, there’s been some buyback on Indianapolis’ low spread. I’ll be surprised if the Colts don’t cover.

The Psychology. Edge: Colts.

The Saints just won their Super Bowl, while the Colts lost theirs. Motivation might be an issue for both squads, though Andrew Luck has always done well off a loss.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Lots of late money on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 73% (23,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Drew Brees is 38-28 ATS as an underdog.

Andrew Luck is 13-3 ATS off a loss.

Andrew Luck is 20-7 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Colts -4.

Opening Total: 52.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Colts 30, Saints 13
Colts -4 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
Under 51.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 27, Colts 21

Week 7 NFL Picks – Late Games
Oakland at San Diego, Dallas at New York Giants, Philadelphia at Carolina, Baltimore at Arizona

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 7 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 13

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)