NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2015

NFL Picks (Preseason 2015): 7-10-1 (-$1,420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2015): 10-6 (+$940)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2015): 9-7 (-$895)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2015): 7-9 (-$870)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2015): 6-8-1 (-$360)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2015): 6-6-2 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2015): 5-8-1 (-$690)

NFL Picks (2015): 50-54-5 (-$3,240)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 26, 6:15 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 7 NFL Picks – Early Games

Oakland Raiders (2-3) at San Diego Chargers (2-4)
Line: Chargers by 4. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Chargers -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chargers -4.
Sunday, Oct 25, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 8! Episode 6 is posted. Emmitt meets with Kim Jong-un to discuss a peace treaty. He also bumps into a familiar face in Kim Jong-un’s building.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Philip Rivers just had the game of his life. He threw for 503 yards and two touchdowns in an amazing effort at Lambeau. Despite this, his team lost, which has to be discouraging to both him and his team.

Rivers is a great quarterback, but it would be unfair to expect him to play on the same type of level again. Forget the fact that any quarterback seldom puts together two performances like this; Rivers just doesn’t have the offensive line to be incredibly consistent. The blocking unit is in shambles because of injuries, but Rivers was able to negate that by completing short passes to his receivers. As a favorite now, Rivers might be less conservative, which will lead to more pressures by a decent pass rush. Also, Keenan Allen might either be out or hobbled, so it’ll just be Antonio Gates, though he’s expected to have a huge outing against a defense that can’t stop tight ends.

It would help Rivers if he had a strong rushing attack, but he doesn’t. Melvin Gordon was expected to provide one, but he hasn’t had the blocking. His fumbling issues have also been a concern; he was actually benched in Green Bay, which I thought upgraded the offense. Danny Woodhead obviously isn’t as talented of a runner, but he’s at least dependable, and he’s great in the receiving game.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Chargers have some major issues on this side of the ball as well. They have the league’s worst-ranked rush defense, which has surrendered 5.43 yards per carry to opposing backs. The Packers couldn’t really take advantage of this because Eddie Lacy could barely walk. Latavius Murray, however, will definitely exploit this opportunity.

San Diego isn’t as bad against the pass, but its 27th ranking in terms of YPA could get worse if Eric Weddle is out. Weddle, one of the top safeties in the league, sustained a groin injury in Week 6 and could miss this contest as a result. Patrick Robinson has been great this year, and Jason Verrett has been OK, but that’s about it for the secondary if Weddle is missing. Derek Carr figures to have a strong performance throwing to Amari Cooper.

The Chargers’ only chance is to put as much pressure on Carr as possible. While it might seem like they have a good chance of doing so at first glance, considering that they’ve racked up 10 sacks in their previous three games, it also has to be considered that Carr is shielded pretty well. The Raiders are tied for the eighth-fewest sacks surrendered this season, so Carr’s pocket should be clean for the most part.

RECAP: I was hoping for a better number here. After the Chargers nearly beat the Packers in Lambeau, I thought this spread would’ve been in the neighborhood of -6 for sure. Unfortunately, the books haven’t gotten so much sharper in terms of posting spreads.

This did open at San Diego -5, but the sharps have bet it down. It’s easy to see why. The Chargers are going to be flat after such an emotionally draining loss. You may recall that I want to avoid picking inferior teams in great spots now, but the Chargers and Raiders aren’t very far apart in my NFL Power Rankings. San Diego is 16th, while Oakland is 20th. With only three squads in between them, this is pretty close to an even matchup, so I have no concerns with taking the Raiders.

Two other reasons to bet the Raiders: First, the public action is all over the host, and in a late-afternoon game, that’s more prevalent, especially with just two 4 p.m. contests on the slate (thanks, Roger Goodell). Second, the Chargers have no homefield advantage. There are going to be more Raider fans in the stands, so Rivers may have to use his silent counts once again, which is just embarrassing.

I could see this number dropping to San Diego -3 -120 or something, so I think I’m going to lock this is now for three units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No surprise this number is falling. As I said earlier, I think this could go to Chargers -3 -120. Take the Raiders now. That’s what the professional bettors are doing.

SUNDAY NOTES: There’s a -3 -125 out there right now, so I was close. Hopefully that translates to a cover.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.

The Chargers just sustained an emotional loss at the Packers. They could have trouble getting up for the Raiders.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

A decent amount of action on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 72% (33,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Chargers have won 6 of the last 7 meetings (Raiders 9-3 ATS last 12).

Raiders are 18-31 ATS in October since 2001.

Opening Line: Chargers -5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Raiders 17, Chargers 16
Raiders +4 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Raiders 37, Chargers 29

Dallas Cowboys (2-3) at New York Giants (3-3)
Line: Giants by 3. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Giants -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Giants -4.
Sunday, Oct 25, 4:25 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Weight Gain and VANDALISM.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Eli Manning completed his first 10 passes against the Eagles, but connected on just 50 percent of his throws after that while maintaining a YPA of less than four. Two things happened. First, Odell Beckham Jr. didn’t quite seem like himself in the second half, failing to secure his only target following the break, which was an overthrow. Second, the offensive line broke down, as Philadelphia’s ferocious pass rush dominated it.

Beckham might be healthier in this contest, albeit on a short week. However, the offensive line will continue to have major problems. Marshall Newhouse is a huge liability at right tackle, so I don’t know how he and the other blockers are going to contain Greg Hardy and the rest of Dallas’ front, which managed to sack Tom Brady five times a couple of weeks ago.

The Giants’ running game won’t do much against Dallas either. The Cowboys maintain a ground defense that’s ranked in the middle of the pack, but the New York runners aren’t very impressive. Rashad Jennings is just OK, while Andre Williams continues to get carries for some reason. It’s a wasted down every time Williams touches the ball, so I don’t know why the Giants continue to give him opportunities.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys announced that they’re making a few changes on this side of the ball. First of all, Matt Cassel will replace Brandon Weeden. Both are effectively the same player from a physical standpoint, but Cassel at least has more confidence. Weeden started strong versus Atlanta, but wilted down every week since. Cassel has plenty of experience, so while he’ll limit the scoring unit, he at least won’t be craven about it.

The other change is that Christine Michael will be used as the starting running back. I like this move as well. Michael is the most-talented runner on the roster – much better than the mediocre Joseph Randle. The Giants are tough against the rush, however, so we may not know if this switch will pan out until Dallas battles some softer ground defenses.

New York, however, sucks when trying to defend passes, and it would’ve gotten blown out of the water at Philadelphia if Sam Bradford didn’t throw all of those interceptions. Even though the Cowboys are limited with Cassel, I think they’ll have success moving the chains, as Cassel should have a clean pocket against a non-existent pass rush.

RECAP: I hate that we’ve lost line value with the Cowboys. Prior to last week, this spread was +5.5. It has moved down two points because of what transpired Monday night.

However, the spread is now probably what it should’ve been in the first place, so I’m not afraid of taking the Cowboys. I’ll do so for two units. I love betting the underdog in Dallas games, and the visitor in this rivalry has a great track record of covering. The Giants have some issues right now with their offensive line and Beckham not being completely healthy, so the Cowboys seem like the right side to me.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s definitely some professional money on the Cowboys, and understandably so. I still like Dallas quite a bit, and if I were still in the business of changing units around, I think I’d bump this up to three.

SUNDAY NOTES: Sharp money continues to come in on the Cowboys. Nothing has changed for me.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
The Cowboys were a public dog, but not anymore.

Percentage of money on New York: 59% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

History: Road Team has won 9 of the last 11 meetings.

The underdog is 56-28 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Cowboys are 25-15 ATS as an underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Giants -5.

Opening Total: .

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Cowboys 23, Giants 20
Cowboys +3 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Giants 27, Cowboys 20

Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) at Carolina Panthers (5-0)
Line: Panthers by 3. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Panthers -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -4.
Sunday, Oct 25, 8:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Panthers.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

Unfortunately, I’ve only been able to post as Mario. I tried to troll as Vivian and Kevin, but I kept getting the following error:

I Googled that error, and I came across several Facebook help pages where people – real ones; not trollers – were complaining about the same issue. Unfortunately, none of them had a solution; once they were blocked, they were blocked for good.

Here’s an example of the complaints:

I pretty much agree with all of that. There’s nothing worse than idealistic douche bags in a position of power. The good news is that I was able to successfully troll as Mario.

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles may have won Monday night, but they did not do so in impressive fashion. Sam Bradford threw three interceptions, two of which were entirely his fault. The team also had some fumbles that could’ve cost them the game if the Giants weren’t so sloppy on the other side of the ball. And this came against the Giants, who have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, especially without Prince Amukamara; they’ve surrendered 260-plus passing yards to every quarterback they’ve faced thus far.

The Panthers don’t have such issues. They’re third against the pass in terms of YPA, thanks to a stellar secondary and a decent pass rush. The latter will definitely give Bradford some issues behind a shaky offensive line that the Giants couldn’t expose because of their lacking pass rush. Meanwhile, Josh Norman will put the clamps on Jordan Matthews, or whomever he’s covering, limiting Bradford’s options.

Chip Kelly will try to establish the run with his two talented running backs, but will likely have major problems doing so. The Panthers have a top-10 ground defense that just limited Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks to 62 rushing yards. Seattle’s running game is so much better than Philadelphia’s, so this could be one of those games where DeMarco Murray is blown up in the backfield multiple times.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Eagles were able to win Monday night, primarily because of how dominant they were on the trenches on this side of the ball. They put immense pressure on Eli Manning, forcing his offense into six three-and-outs in a string of seven possessions. They sacked him just three times, but forced just as many intentional-grounding penalties with their great rush. The Giants, however, had some offensive line liabilities. Carolina doesn’t possess those.

The Panthers don’t have the greatest blocking in the league, but they do have a decent front that has kept Cam Newton clean for the most part. Newton, of course, could always take off and pick up yardage on the ground. Newton also has continued to strengthen his bond with Greg Olsen, who looks unstoppable right now. Larry Donnell could’ve eaten up the Eagles if he didn’t suck – he was responsible for an interception and dropped a pass – but Olsen will take advantage of those opportunities.

Jonathan Stewart, meanwhile, was able to pick up some positive yardage for once against the Seahawks. Carolina racked up 105 yards on the ground in that contest, excluding Newton’s runs, which was surprising because Seattle entered the afternoon with a top-five ground defense. The Eagles also possess one, so it’ll be interesting to see if Stewart continues to have the same success he enjoyed following his bye last year. Fully focusing on him can be quite difficult, considering Newton can take off and pick up big chunks of yardage on the ground himself.

RECAP: The Panthers are in an awful spot. They just had a huge statement win at Seattle, so they could be exhausted for this matchup. Also, this spread is considered short, prompting public bettors to pound Carolina.

The old me would’ve taken the Eagles for a couple of units. I can’t do that, however. Carolina is much better than Philadelphia, and in the New CBA Era, spot doesn’t mean quite as much in a lopsided matchup. Thus, I’m just going to take the Eagles for no units and enjoy this game as it’s being… wait, oops, I can’t watch this because of my sister’s wedding FML.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still have no feel for this game because I’m going to be asked about it 5,000 times at my sister’s wedding. I won’t have any last-second thoughts about this game, by the way, because I’ll be checking my phone while my sister walks down the aisle.

SUNDAY NOTES: Professional money is on the Eagles, as +3 -110 isn’t even available anywhere anymore except for Bovada. If you like the Eagles, take them now on that line.

The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.

Not sure about Carolina’s focus here. The Panthers just had an emotional victory over the Seahawks, and after this contest, they play on Monday night.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

A decent amount of action on the host.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 68% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Eagles are 23-12 ATS as road underdogs since 2005.

Favorites after playing the Seahawks are 9-25 ATS.

Opening Line: Panthers -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Panthers 28, Eagles 27
Eagles +3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Panthers 27, Eagles 16

Baltimore Ravens (1-5) at Arizona Cardinals (4-1)
Line: Cardinals by 9. Total: 50.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Cardinals -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cardinals -11.
Monday, Oct 26, 8:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Baltimore, home of the Ravens, Orioles and delicious crab cakes! Tonight, the Baltimore Orioles take on the Phoenix Cardinals. Guys, I really hate the Cardinals because they beat my Eagles in the NFC Championship seven years ago. I have not forgiven them since, and I’ve made it my goal to poison Kurt Warner before kickoff. I put pesticide into his Fruit Loops, which he eats every day. I know this because I’ve spent the past six months stalking him! Ha! Take that, Kurt!

Emmitt: Mike, or… uhh… Francois, Kurt Warner no longer the quarterback of the Cardinal. He retiremented already. A long time ago. Now the quarterback of the St. Louis Cardinal a guy by the name of Carson Palm Tree. He real good as well too also.

Reilly: What!? I thought Palmer was still on the Bengals! So I poisoned Kurt Warner for no reason? What an outrage!

Charles Davis: Kevin, did you know there are many ways to poison someone, Kevin? There’s Hemlock, Kevin. What about Aconite, Kevin? How about Belladonna, Kevin? Let’s not forget Dimethylmercury, Kevin. What about Terodotoxin, Kevin? How about Polonium, Kevin? Don’t forget Mercury and Cyanide, Kevin. There’s also Botulinum Toxin, Kevin. And how about the one most people use, Kevin? I’ll give you a guess about what that is, Kevin. It begins with an “A,” Kevin. Oh, you said Appple, Kevin? Totally wrong, Kevin. It’s Arsenic, Kevin!

Reilly: If you don’t shut up, I’m going to use all 10 of those poisons on you – all at the same time!

Tollefson: Kevin, I think you’re on the right track with poisoning people. I can usually force women to cook and clean naked for me, but there’s sometimes an outlier who doesn’t do what she’s told, so using your strategy, I may poison women like this so they don’t spread on their genes to their daughters, who would likely turn down cooking and cleaning naked for me when they reach the ripe age of 15.

Herm: FIFTEEN’S THE WRONG AGE! IT’S THE INCORRECT AGE! IT’S THE OTHER AGE! GOTTA LOOK AT THE OTHER AGE! GOTTA LOOK AT THE RIGHT AGE! GOTTA LOOK AT THE CORRECT AGE! THE AGE OF CONSENT! THE AGE IN WHICH YOU CAN CONSENT! THE AGE IN WHICH YOU CAN LEGALLY CONSENT! THAT’S 18! NOT 15! NOT 16! NOT 17! NOT 19! BUT YOU CAN CONSENT AT 19! IT WOULDN’T MAKE SENSE IF YOU COULD CONSENT AT 18 BUT 19! UNLESS YOU TRAVEL BACK IN TIME! BUT HERM ALREADY SAID THAT HE DOESN’T LIKE TIME TRAVEL! HERM HATES TIME TRAVEL! HERM WILL NEVER DO TIME TRAVEL! THE BOSSES AT ESPN TOLD HERM TO DO TIME TRAVEL! THEY TRIED TO FORCE HERM TO DO TIME TRAVEL! HERM DIDN’T WANT TO DO IT! HERM COULDN’T DO IT! HERM COULDN’T STAND TO DO IT! HERM LOATHED TO DO IT! HERM… uhh… WHAT IS HERM LOATHING TO DO? HERM FORGOT ALREADY! HERM DOESN’T KNOW WHAT HE DOESN’T WANT TO DO! HERM… uhh…

Millen: Herm, I’d like to correct one thing you just said. You noted that the age of consent is 18, and while this might be true for all women and most men, this is not true for 100-percent USDA Men. The age of consent for 100-percent USDA Men is 21. That’s because you can’t be 100-percent USDA until you reach 21. My kielbasa sextant says that the highest percentage of USDA Man for an 18-year-old that’s ever been recorded is 60-percent USDA Man, believe it or not. That’s because you have to reach full manhood to become a 100-percent USDA Man whom you can insert your kielbasas into.

Wolfley: I ONCE SAW A MAN INSERTING A KIELBASA INTO A FIRE HYDRANT. I ASKED HIM WHAT HE WAS DOING, AND HE TOLD ME HE WAS TRYING TO FIND A PORTAL TO THE EIGHTH DIMENSION. I TOLD HIM THAT I’VE BEEN TO THE EIGHTH DIMENSION, AND IT’S NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT.

Fouts: And here’s what he means by eighth dimension. That’s five more dimensions than we live in. We live in the third dimension. That’s one more than the second dimension, and two more than the first dimension, and three more than the zeroth dimension. And it’s also one fewer than the fourth dimension. The first dimension is just a single point, while the second dimension is length and width. The third dimension incorporates height, which is why most people can move up and down, but there are some who can’t do that so they’re two-dimensional people. And then there’s the fourth dimension that incorporates time travel, and the fifth dimension which is all possibilities at once, and then there’s the sixth dimension which focuses on how many sheep are in a room at a given time, and don’t forget the seventh dimension, where Kit-Kats taste like alligators, and vice versa!

Millen: I have to get to the seventh dimension. Alligators might like having kielbasas inserted into their backside!

Reilly: Guys, shut up already, and help me brainstorm on how to poison Carson Palmer for my sweet revenge! We’ll be back after this!

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Horrible and biased officiating screwed over the Cardinals last week. They moved the chains extremely well, but couldn’t produce many points because it seemed like Ed Hochuli derailed drives at every opportunity. Some sloppy play on Carson Palmer’s play didn’t help either.

I definitely expect Palmer to rebound in this matchup. The Ravens have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. They can’t get to the quarterback at all, and their injury-ravaged secondary is suffering as a consequence. I have no idea how they’re going to cover Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown.

The one thing the Cardinals won’t be able to do very well is run the ball with Chris Johnson. The Ravens actually still stop the run pretty well, ranking sixth against it, and Johnson seems to be slowing down. Bruce Arians should consider going back to Andre Ellington, but perhaps he’s saving Ellington for the playoff run, which would actually be pretty smart, given how fragile he is.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: What Joe Flacco looked like Sunday has to be disconcerting for every Ravens fan. He constantly drifted back in the pocket and fired aimless passes downfield. It reminded me of Jay Cutler. The Bears’ quarterback, at least in the past, has constantly heaved balls downfield as hard as he could, with no regard of what’ll happen to them. I’ve called these #yolo passes, and Flacco definitely had his fair share at San Francisco.

That may not happen in this contest, however. We’ve seen experienced quarterbacks with offensive line issues go into a shell as big underdogs and connect with their targets on short passes. Matthew Stafford did this on a Monday night at Seattle, and Philip Rivers did the same at Green Bay this past week. Flacco could be just as conservative, and he may not even need to be because his blocking, despite being atrocious early on, has gotten better ever since Eugene Monroe reentered the lineup. The Cardinals don’t have the best pass rush, so Flacco could have plenty of time in the pocket.

Unfortunately for Flacco, he doesn’t have the best supporting cast. He’ll be battling a tough secondary, so moving the chains consistently could prove to be difficult, especially against a stingy Arizona rush defense that has allowed just one opponent to accumulate more than 100 rushing yards with its running backs.

RECAP: I hate to not have a strong opinion on a Monday night game, but perhaps it’s for the best because my Monday picks have been terrible for the most part.

I’m torn on this one. On one hand, the Ravens haven’t lost by more than six points in any game. I think they’ll be conservative, just like the Lions were at Seattle, so they may avoid turnovers. I also think they’ll show way more effort than they did Sunday.

On the other hand, Arizona may not be favored by enough. I have this calculated line at -11. The Cardinals are one of the top teams in the league, and I expect them to rebound. Circadian rhythms also could be a factor, and Bruce Arians is 26-12 against the spread.

I’m going to take Arizona, but this will be a zero-unit selection.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The professional bettors seem a bit split here. Some pushed the spread up to -10, prompting others to take the +10. As for me, I have no strong opinion. I even considered changing my pick to Baltimore, as I could see the Ravens showing up and playing for pride. Even if they do, however, the Cardinals will be up for this and could blow them out anyway. This spread is -9.5 in most places right now, but can still be found at -9 -115 on Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
A good amount of money on the host early on, but it has evened out.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 59% (73,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Bruce Arians is 26-12 ATS as head coach of the Cardinals.

Cardinals are 3-11 ATS as favorites of 7.5 or more the previous 14 instances.

Opening Line: Cardinals -7.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: Dome.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Cardinals 27, Ravens 17
Cardinals -9 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 50 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cardinals 26, Ravens 18

Week 7 NFL Picks – Early Games
Seattle at San Francisco, Buffalo at Jacksonville, Tampa Bay at Washington, Atlanta at Tennessee, New Orleans at Indianapolis, Minnesota at Detroit, Pittsburgh at Kansas City, Cleveland at St. Louis, Houston at Miami, New York Jets at New England

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Moneyline: Steelers +130 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline: Patriots -350 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50

Moneyline: Cowboys +145 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; $0

NFL Picks - Nov. 24

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)

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