NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 8-7-1 (+$150)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$80)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2018): 8-8 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2018): 8-6-1 (+$280)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2018): 10-4-1 (+$1,415)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2018): 6-7-2 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2018): 7-7 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2018): 6-8 (+$510)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2018): 5-8 (-$1,445)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2018): 5-8-1 (-$735)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2018): 5-5-3 (+$950)
NFL Picks (2018): 87-85-10 (+$75)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$3,790)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.
Vegas betting action updated Nov. 25, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.
Go to Week 12 NFL Picks – Late Games
Chicago Bears (7-3) at Detroit Lions (4-6)
Line: Bears by 3. Total: 43.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bears -3.5.
Thursday, Nov 22, 12:30 PM
The Game. Edge: Bears.
WEEK 11 RECAP: This weekend was a good one, as I finished 5-5-3 (+$950), meaning I’m back in the black. The only selection of three or more units that I was wrong on in Week 11 was the Eagles +8 over the Saints. Philadelphia was a bad pick in the first place, and it had no chance after losing its Pro Bowl center and two cornerbacks early in the game. Meanwhile, Colts -2, Redskins +3, Jaguars +5.5 and Bears -2.5 were all big wins.
My Week 12 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.
DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions failed to produce anything against the Bears just two weeks ago. Matthew Stafford took six sacks, while Detroit as a whole averaged a meager 4.2 yards per play. It’s a bit unfair for the Lions that these two teams have to clash twice in a span of 10 days. With such limited time, it’s unlikely that Detroit’s coaching staff has been able to make any fundamental changes to improve this matchup.
I once again expect Stafford to struggle. He’ll see lots of pressure from Chicago’s stout defensive front. Meanwhile, the fact that he’ll have one viable receiver to throw to will actually matter this week. It didn’t against the Panthers’ atrocious secondary, but the Bears are very capable of locking down opposing wideouts. Kenny Golladay didn’t do much a couple of weeks ago, and I don’t think things will be different this time.
Making matters worse for the Lions, Kerryon Johnson will miss this game with an injury. Without Johnson, the Lions won’t have a dynamic threat out of the backfield, which will allow the Bears to focus on clamping down other aspects of Detroit’s scoring unit.
CHICAGO OFFENSE: Remember how I said that the Lions averaged just 4.2 yards per play in the initial meeting between these teams? Well, the Bears averaged 7.6 yards per play in that complete blowout. Chicago practically did whatever it wanted in that contest.
While things won’t go differently for the Lions’ offense, the Bears could be slowed down a bit because Darius Slay is back from injury. Slay returned last week to help contain the Panthers. One of the better cornerbacks in the NFL, Slay will make sure that Allen Robinson doesn’t torch his team again.
Unfortunately for the Lions, they still appear to be out-manned on this side of the ball. Excluding Slay, the only thing the Lions have going for them on defense is their pass rush with Ziggy Ansah and Da’Shawn Hand being very capable of collapsing the pocket. Both Ansah and Hand did this very effectively to rattle Cam Newton, but Newton is very poorly protected. Mitchell Trubisky is not. One of the many reasons why the Bears are Super Bowl contenders is their prolific offensive line. They’ll protect Trubisky well in what should be another high-scoring output for Chicago.
RECAP: Whoever flexed the Bears-Vikings game into Sunday night clearly wasn’t thinking about this contest. The Bears, who played on Sunday night, will have to take the field just four days later, which seems unreasonable.
I was curious about how teams have performed in these situations, so I looked it up. Teams playing a Thursday game after Sunday Night Football are 4-6 against the spread, though one victory was a miracle back-door cover by the Redskins at Dallas a few years ago, so really 3-7 ATS.
But here’s the thing: NONE of those teams played the early Thanksgiving game. That’s right – this is the first time in NFL history that a team coming off a Sunday night affair will be playing the early game on Thanksgiving. And the NFL claims that it cares about player safety. Yeah, OK.
I’d like the Bears under normal conditions. Their defense has an incredible matchup versus Detroit’s stagnant offense, while their offensive line will be able to neutralize the strength of Detroit’s stop unit. I’m actually going to side with the Bears because of that, as well as the fact that they’ll be enthusiastic about playing on Thanksgiving, but I can’t bet them here because they could be too fatigued when the second half comes around. They might be blowing the Lions out, but if it’s close, they may wear down and lose because of that.
INJURY UPDATE: Mitchell Trubisky is out, and Chase Daniel will start this game. This spread has dropped to -2.5 -115 as a result. I think this is an unnecessary overreaction. Daniel is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL, and good teams tend to play above their ability when their starting signal-caller is down for the first game. With this line now on the other side of three, I may actually bet the Bears. I’ll think about it tonight and will have an update about an hour prior to kickoff.
PICK POSTED/FINAL THOUGHTS: After mulling this over, I’m going to bet two units on Chicago. The Bears are better than the Lions at every single position except quarterback, so this spread should be higher than -3, even with Chase Daniel starting. Speaking of Daniel, I think he’ll provide Chicago with a spark. I didn’t think the team would have great energy here because of the ridiculous scheduling fiasco, but now the Bears know they have to play harder because they have a backup starting for them. I like betting on good teams playing with a solid backup in his first start, as they tend to play at 110-percent capacity.
I’m not alone in thinking this, as the sharps have been betting the Bears, pushing the juice up in sharp books. It’s still -115 at square books, fortunately.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Bears will be excited to play on Thanksgiving. Unfortunately, they’re playing unreasonably early after Sunday night.
The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
No surprise that the public is on the Bears.
The Trends. Edge: None.
Week 12 NFL Pick: Bears 27, Lions 20
Bears -3 -115 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bears 23, Lions 16
Washington Redskins (6-4) at Dallas Cowboys (5-5)
Line: Cowboys by 7. Total: 40.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cowboys -5.5.
Thursday, Nov 22, 4:30 PM
The Game. Edge: Cowboys.
My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have three overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!
WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Alex Smith suffered a horrible leg injury and may never play again. Let’s hope that’s not the case, but in the meantime, the Redskins will move on with Colt McCoy as their starting quarterback for the rest of the year.
I don’t think the Redskins’ aspirations of winning the NFC East are over in the wake of Smith’s injury. In fact, I’d say they have a decent chance because Smith and McCoy are very similar quarterbacks. Both are limited in their downfield throws, but are accurate and smart, and they both possess plus scrambling ability. McCoy is also gritty and well liked by his teammates, so they’ll play hard for him.
The problem with McCoy leading the Redskins to an NFC East crown is Washington’s injury-ravaged offensive line. It will have problems on Thanksgiving, as blocking against Dallas’ terrific front will prove to be a great challenge. The Redskins are down both starting guards, while their right tackle, Morgan Moses, is clearly banged up, and he’ll have issues keeping DeMarcus Lawrence out of the backfield. It would be nice if McCoy could throw quick passes to talented players like Chris Thompson and Jamison Crowder, but both have been out a while, and there’s no guarantee that they’ll be able to return.
DALLAS OFFENSE: Like the Cowboys, the strength of the Redskins’ roster is also the front seven. The difference is that aside from center Travis Frederick, the Cowboys have a healthy offensive line. The blocking unit isn’t all that great, as it has some liabilities, but it’s still very strong at left tackle and right guard.
Still, I wouldn’t expect the Cowboys to be able to establish the run as well with Ezekiel Elliott as they did last week versus Atlanta’s pathetic defense. The Redskins limited Elliott to his season-worst performance back in Week 7, as Elliott mustered just 33 yards on 15 carries. This was not a fluke, as the Redskins have one of the top defensive lines in the NFL.
The one thing that has changed since then has been the acquisition of Amari Cooper. While Cooper hasn’t put together terrific receiving performances, he has at least distracted opposing defenses enough to open up more space for Elliott. As a result, Elliott should have a bit more room on Thanksgiving, but I wouldn’t expect him to nearly have the same dominating output like he did last week.
RECAP: The Cowboys used to have a great track record on Thanksgiving, but they’ve recently been mailing in these games. The last time they covered the spread on Thanksgiving was back in 2010, when they lost by three points as four-point home underdogs. What’s happened, at least in my opinion, is that opponents have become more excited to play on Thanksgiving than the Cowboys. This is old hat for Dallas. Teams like the Chargers last year, or the Panthers in 2015, were more thrilled to be in the national spotlight.
That’s something to consider for this game, as is the fact that the Cowboys have beaten just one team by more than seven points this year. That was the Jaguars, who were sleepwalking in their 40-7 loss. I doubt anyone is surprised by this, as the Cowboys are offensively challenged and poorly coached.
With these two factors, it seems like the Redskins might be the obvious side. However, I just can’t bring myself to bet them. McCoy, behind a injury-ravaged offensive line, battling a great Dallas defense seems like a recipe for disaster. It’s possible that this game could get ugly very quickly.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I talked about Colt McCoy being a solid backup, but I read what I wrote about him in 2014. That was the year he upset Dallas on Monday night. He played well in that game, but then he was absolutely awful after that. After a couple of blowouts, Redskins fans were chanting, “R-G-3!” as they wanted the coaches to go back to Robert Griffin after he struggled so much earlier in the year. That said, I think McCoy could play well in one game before dropping off again. The Cowboys are poorly coached and offensively challenged, so asking them to cover a touchdown is difficult. That said, I don’t want to bet the Redskins and their injury-ravaged offensive line.
FINAL THOUGHTS: This is the toughest game of the day to handicap. I don’t want to bet on Colt McCoy behind a banged-up offensive line. I know Trent Williams is active, but Morgan Moses is not healthy, and his matchup against DeMarcus Lawrence seems very unfavorable. On the other hand, expecting the Cowboys to win by more than seven seems like a tough ask, given how poorly coached and offensively challenged they are. The Redskins have a good defense and should be able to limit Dallas enough to hang around for a while. The only question is if McCoy can score enough to beat the spread, or at the very least, get the back-door cover. I’d side with the Redskins, but I don’t have any faith in this pick.
The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.
The Redskins could be more excited than the Cowboys to play on Thanksgiving.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
Week 12 NFL Pick: Cowboys 26, Redskins 20
Redskins +7 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 40.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cowboys 31, Redskins 23
Atlanta Falcons (4-6) at New Orleans Saints (9-1)
Line: Saints by 13. Total: 60.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -10.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -8.
Thursday, Nov 22, 8:20 PM
The Game. Edge: Saints.
VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot.
The highest-bet sides were 43-40-4 last season, a year that was pretty painful for the books. Perhaps the pendulum will swing the other way…
Here were the teams getting the most bets last week:
Vegas got slaughtered in Weeks 8 and 9. Week 10 was better, but it was not the bounce-back weekend the house was looking for. Week 11, however, certainly was. Four of the top six publicly backed sides failed to cover.
The overall record of heavily bet teams is now 25-28-3. Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:
The public was very confident. I was even getting ridiculous comments below like, “Your and idiot you should only bet on teh best QB!” The sportsbooks will destroy people who have this mindset, and that’s what happened in Week 11.
NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints are unstoppable right now, as they’ve scored 45 points in three consecutive games. The Falcons, meanwhile, have struggled to stop most teams this year, so this seems like a colossal mismatch. I imagine most people think New Orleans will be able to once again score on nearly every possession.
That could certainly happen, but the one caveat to keep in mind is that the Falcons could have Deion Jones back from injury. Jones, one of the top linebackers in the NFL, was assumed to be returning to the lineup last week, but was declared as a surprising inactive on Friday. This made it very difficult to stop Ezekiel Elliott in an upset loss to the Cowboys. However, it sounded like the Falcons were preserving Jones for this game. If so, the Falcons might be able to force some punts and field goals. Jones’ presence would mean that the Falcons are better at stopping the run and containing receiving backs, giving them a chance to slow down Alvin Kamara a bit.
Still, Drew Brees has plenty of dynamic weapons at his disposal, and he’ll make great use of them. Michael Thomas could be slowed down a bit by Atlanta’s top cornerback, Desmond Trufant, but rookie Tre’Quan Smith finally emerged last week. Atlanta’s other cornerbacks have struggled, so Smith could be very productive once again. Of course, it would help if the Falcons could put some pressure on Brees, taking advantage of the liability at left tackle in the wake of Terron Armstead’s injury, but I don’t think they have the personnel to do this.
ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons will be able to force the Saints into an occasional punt if Jones is back, but their offense will have to be prolific to keep up on the scoreboard regardless. While New Orleans’ defense has been much better lately, I still expect the Falcons to score consistently.
The Saints were able to limit the Eagles to just seven points because of their immense pressure. The Eagles, already having problems at tackle because of injuries to Jason Peters and Lane Johnson, lost center Jason Kelce, so they couldn’t block at all. The Falcons, conversely, have a strong offensive line that should be able to keep Cameron Jordan and the rest of New Orleans’ front out of the backfield. This should award Matt Ryan enough time to expose the liabilities New Orleans has on this side of the ball, which would be the cornerbacks outside of Marshon Lattimore. I expect Lattimore to smother Julio Jones as well as anyone can, so Ryan should be able to target his other talented receivers – Calvin Ridley, Mohamed Sanu – with some success.
What the Falcons won’t be able to do is run the ball. The Saints have been strong against the rush, so Tevin Coleman will have to do his damage as a receiver out of the backfield. That demonstrates how much Atlanta misses Devonta Freeman because Freeman is so much more proficient in that role.
RECAP: Of the three Thanksgiving games, this is the one I’m most likely to bet.
This spread is outrageous. The advance line on this game was -10.5, which I thought was too high in the first place because New Orleans was only -8 versus Philadelphia. The Falcons are not 2.5 points worse than the Eagles, so I thought the sportsbooks were inflating this spread to begin with because they anticipated tons of public action on the host in this national spotlight game. Apparently, -10.5 wasn’t enough, as this spread has soared to -13.
Divisional games are usually close, and that happens to be the case between these two teams. The last time the Saints and Falcons met, they went to overtime. I know the Saints are better now than they were in Week 3, but it just goes to show that these teams battle each other closely. Here are the margins of victory between the teams since Matt Ryan joined the Falcons: 6, 3, 10, 13, 6, 10, 3, 3, 16, 6, 4, 4, 10, 3, 29, 3, 3, 8, 3, 14, 4. Only three of 21 meetings were decided by more than 13 points.
If you want to argue that these teams are far apart in talent, you could do that. However, the Falcons’ defense will be much better with Deion Jones back on the field. If Jones plays, I like the Falcons for three or so units. If not, this will be a one-unit wager. I’ll eagerly be monitoring the injury reports and providing updates, as usual.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Ugh. Deion Jones is out. I was hoping he’d be able to play, but he’s apparently not healthy even though he had limited practices all week. This is a huge factor in this game, as Atlanta’s defense will have no chance of stopping Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara. I still like the Falcons, as this spread is too high, but this isn’t going to be the three-unit wager I envisioned it to be. With Jones out, I’m going to be on the Falcons for a single unit, as promised.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The Redskins-Cowboys game was frustrating, and I didn’t even bet on it. It’ll be nice to see a game with good quarterbacking for a chance. I still like the Falcons, but for only one unit. The Saints will be without Tre’Quan Smith and Terron Armstead, but the big injury is Deion Jones for the Falcons. Still, this spread is high. The best number I found is +12 -105 at BetUS. It’s not worth paying -115 to get +13.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Sharp money on Atlanta has pushed this down.
The Trends. Edge: None.
Week 12 NFL Pick: Saints 38, Falcons 31
Falcons +13 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 60.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 31, Falcons 17
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7) at Buffalo Bills (3-7)
Line: Jaguars by 3. Total: 37.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bills -2.
Sunday, Nov 25, 1:00 PM
The Game. Edge: None.
HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. I once again heard back from the real e-mailer who made light of child abuse and suicide:
Mo’Lester didn’t reply to me, meaning that he hadn’t thought of new jokes about child abuse and suicide. I guess those are tough genres to come up with new material.
Speaking of lacking humor, here’s Orange Popcorn, who doesn’t understand funny stuff:
As bad as Orange Popcorn’s mindset is, at least he’s better than Red Flame, who doesn’t seem to understand anything.
Meanwhile, this is just wrong all around:
Not only were this guy’s predictions wrong, he also wrong about my “chick” leaving me. My wife was literally in the room with me as I was reading this post!
Here’s an insult I didn’t understand:
Why would he call me a “Dic?” That seems like a strange insult. Why would anyone call someone else a disseminated intravascular coagulation? Or, did he mean DiC, as in DiC Entertainment, a defunct media company? Someone please let me know what this Orange Anchor guy is talking about!
JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: One of the reasons I loved the Jaguars last week was because the Steelers were going to be missing one of their top defensive players, Stephon Tuitt. Without Tuitt, Pittsburgh would struggle to defend the run and apply pressure on the quarterback, and that’s what happened, as the Jaguars rammed the ball down the Steelers’ throat. Tuitt’s absence was crucial because the Jaguars have injury issues on the offensive line. They’re missing their starting center, the talented Brandon Linder, while Ereck Flowers is playing left tackle, which doesn’t seem ideal.
The Bills have an excellent, healthy front that will be able to win in the trenches and expose Jacksonville’s liabilities. Buffalo is excellent against the run, so Leonard Fournette’s production will decrease this week. The Jaguars will be forced into throwing the ball with Blake Bortles, which is something they didn’t want to do last week, opting to pound the ball on third-and-long situations, rather than have Bortles force the issue.
Bortles will have to throw in this game, which could prove to be disastrous. The offensive line won’t be able to protect him, as Jerry Hughes has a dream matchup against Flowers. Buffalo’s excellent secondary will win easy matchups against Jacksonville’s mediocre receiving corps as well.
BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen figures to be back this week for the first time since suffering an injury in Week 6 at Houston. This is obviously great news, as Derek Anderson and Nathan J. Peterman were disastrous as replacements. Matt Barkley was much better than them prior to the bye, but Allen’s mobility will be needed in this matchup.
Much like the Jaguars, Buffalo has severe blocking issues. Left tackle Dion Dawkins is fine, but the rest of the offensive line needs to be upgraded this offseason. The Jaguars have an excellent front capable of putting immense pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so Allen’s ability to run around will prove to be crucial.
Throwing on the Jaguars will be difficult. For the first time since Week 2, Jacksonville had its entire secondary intact versus Pittsburgh, and we saw what it did to Ben Roethlisberger. Allen won’t take as many chances as Roethlisberger, so I wouldn’t expect lots of turnovers, but it could still be difficult for the Bills to maintain offensive success.
RECAP: The Bills are one of my top picks this week. I simply can’t see the Jaguars showing up to this game. Last week’s battle against the Steelers was their Super Bowl. They played above their talent level and led 16-0, but they blew it in the final seconds. Now, at 3-7, their season is officially over. They have a very slim chance of sneaking into the playoffs if they finish 9-7, but they know they’re not winning the remainder of their games with Bortles as their quarterback.
I expect the Jaguars to mail this in, while the young, enthusiastic Bills will play hard with their rookie quarterback coming back from injury. This will be seen as a stepping stone for them, as they can beat the defending AFC runner-up, which played so well against a team that is now 7-2-1.
Also, this spread is way off. Who are the Jaguars to be favored by three at Buffalo? Jacksonville is not three points better than the Bills in Buffalo. Not with their offensive line woes. I made the Bills -2 in this game. At the very worst, this should be a pick ’em.
Considering that the spread is way off, and that the Jaguars figure to have extremely low energy, and that the public is all over Jacksonville, I’m going big on the Bills. Assuming Allen plays, this will be a five-unit selection.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still love the Bills. Josh Allen practiced fully Wednesday, so it looks like all systems are go for him.
FRIDAY UPDATE/SATURDAY NOTES: I’m going to lock in the Bills at +3 -105 at any sportsbook. Josh Allen is ready to go, and I fear the sharps may come in on Buffalo and move the juice to +3 -120, or something.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The line didn’t move at all, except for at Bovada, where the Bills are available at +3 +100. The sharps bet Buffalo at +3.5, but not so much at +3, which is a surprise.
The Psychology. Edge: Bills.
The Jaguars will be very flat coming off their “Super Bowl” loss to the Steelers.
The Vegas. Edge: Bills.
Public on the Jaguars. Sharps on the Bills.
The Trends. Edge: Bills.
Week 12 NFL Pick: Bills 20, Jaguars 6
Bills +3 -105 (5 Units) – any sportsbook — Correct; +$500
Under 37 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bills 24, Jaguars 21
Oakland Raiders (2-8) at Baltimore Ravens (5-5)
Line: Ravens by 12.5. Total: 42.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: No Line (Flacco).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Ravens -11.
Sunday, Nov 25, 1:00 PM
The Game. Edge: Ravens.
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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: There’s a chance Joe Flacco will play in this game, though I imagine that the coaching staff will deem his hip to not be quite healthy enough until Lamar Jackson screws up. Once that happens, Flacco will suddenly feel much better. It’ll be a medical miracle!
Jackson will start this game in all likelihood, which means the Ravens will continue to pound the ball with him and all of his running backs. Jackson eclipsed the century mark on the ground last week, and the same thing could happen in this contest because Oakland’s linebacking corps is miserable. The threat of Jackson running will once again open up opportunities for the backs, including Gus Edwards, who also rushed for 100-plus yards. Edwards looked great in the preseason – I even joked about betting on him for MVP during the Hall of Fame Game – so I’m glad that he finally has gotten an opportunity to showcase his skills. His presence will help Baltimore immensely down the stretch because Alex Collins and Buck Allen have struggled.
Jackson isn’t there as a passer yet, but offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg did a good job last week of putting Jackson in a position to make easy throws out of play-action bootlegs and such. Jackson made one mistake on an interception into tight coverage along the sideline, but if he only makes one error per game, that’s OK. Jackson should have a similar passing performance in this contest, as the Raiders won’t put any sort of pressure on him.
OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Ravens are great at exposing liabilities on the offensive line. They did this to the Titans when Taylor Lewan was hurt, racking up 11 sacks on the mobile Marcus Mariota. Considering that Derek Carr saw a good amount of pressure versus the Cardinals, a team that doesn’t generate a consistent pass rush, he’ll likely take a large number of sacks, as the Ravens will expose the inexperienced Kolton Miller and Brandon Parker, as well as the injured Kelechi Osemele.
Making matters worse for Carr, he won’t have anyone to throw to. Amari Cooper is gone. Jordy Nelson is decrepit and may not play anyway. Martavis Bryant is hurt. Brandon LaFell is out for the year. Carr will be throwing to someone named Marcell Ateman, as well as Dwayne Harris and Seth Roberts. This is not ideal, especially considering how talented Baltimore’s secondary is!
Meanwhile, Doug Martin is also hurt. He might play, but there’s a chance he’ll sit out. If so, Jalen Richard will be the primary back. Jon Gruden compared Richard to Charlie Garner, which seems wild. But even Garner wouldn’t have a good performance in this situation, as Baltimore’s monstrous front just clamped down on Joe Mixon.
RECAP: This seems like a colossal mismatch to me. The Raiders are pathetic offensively and won’t be able to score on Baltimore’s great defense. And yet, Oakland’s defense is even worse than its offense!
This number may seem high, but we’ve seen the Ravens stomp on bad teams at home, beating the Bills by 44 and the Broncos by 13. They haven’t had an easy home contest since, battling the Saints, Steelers and Bengals in their previous three stints as hosts.
I’d say this qualifies as an easy game. With nothing to look ahead to – Baltimore plays Atlanta next week – the Ravens should demolish the Raiders. Oakland is coming off a win, and bad teams usually handle success poorly.
I think I’ll be on the Ravens for a unit or two, pending the injury report.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jordy Nelson returned to practice, so the Raiders might have a viable receiver. Nelson’s not good, but at least he’s a professional football player. This makes me a bit less enthusiastic about the Ravens, but I still like them.
SATURDAY NOTES: I’m moving off betting this game. The Ravens could be down two offensive linemen, which may hurt their run blocking.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Late public money has moved the Ravens up from -10.5/-11 to -12.5/-13. There’s not much of a difference between those numbers, so if you liked the Ravens earlier and didn’t bet them, you should still take them for the same unit count. I’m zero on Baltimore.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: Raiders.
Week 12 NFL Pick: Ravens 24, Raiders 6
Ravens -12.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Ravens 34, Raiders 17
San Francisco 49ers (2-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-7)
Line: Buccaneers by 2. Total: 54.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Buccaneers -3.
Sunday, Nov 25, 1:00 PM
The Game. Edge: 49ers.
I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.
Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:
1. Jerry Rice is not only the best wide receiver in NFL history, but he’s a keen observer of today’s game as well. I discovered this when Rice voiced his opinion about Eli Manning, suggesting that the long-time Giants quarterback doesn’t belong in the Hall of Fame.
Many media members seemed surprised by this take, but I was not. That’s because I’ve been opining it for quite a while now. The youngest Manning is not a Hall of Fame quarterback.
There are several reasons for this. First of all, Manning’s numbers don’t line up. The other two first-round quarterbacks from his class, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers, have superior stats across the board. Manning has the yardage, but only because he’s played so long and avoided injury. If you look at more relevant numbers, such as touchdowns and interceptions, they tell a different tale. Going into Week 11, Roethlisberger had a career touchdown-to-interception ratio of 350:181. Philip Rivers’ career touchdown-to-interception ratio was 363:170. Manning’s? His career touchdown-to-interception ratio was 350:234. The interceptions are much higher. The touchdowns are close, but remember that Manning played two more seasons than Rivers, and he never missed time with injuries like Roethlisberger has.
Manning won two Super Bowls, sure, but that gets me to my second point. He wasn’t primarily responsible for those victories. Saying Manning should get the acclaim for those Super Bowls would be like rewarding Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson when the Ravens and Buccaneers won, respectively. Manning beat the Patriots twice, but never really outscored them. His defense did all the work, smothering Tom Brady. Manning was just along for the ride.
If you’re still adamant that a two-time Super Bowl quarterback should be in the Hall of Fame, ask yourself this: Would you vote Johnson or Dilfer into Canton if they happened to luck into a second Lombardi? And what about Jim Plunkett? The former Raider quarterback is a two-time Super Bowl champion, and he was MVP of Super Bowl XV. He’s not in the Hall of Fame, and rightfully so. He just wasn’t that good. His Raiders limited their two opponents to 19 combined points. Manning’s Giants restricted the Patriots to 31 total points in two games. That’s 12 more than Oakland’s total, but the Raiders didn’t battle the greatest quarterback in NFL history twice.
I ultimately think Manning will make it into Canton, which is a shame because it’ll cheapen the NFL Hall of Fame. Manning will get in because of his name. If Eli Manning’s name were Eli Jones, or Eli Williams, or Eli Cherepinsky, he would be an afterthought, just like Plunkett.
2. I didn’t get a chance to write about the Mexico City debacle last week because the move occurred as I was posting my picks Tuesday evening.
I just can’t believe something like that would happen. How can a stadium owner allow his turf to look like it had been scorched in some sort of biblical event? Here’s an idea: Stop having boring sports and stupid concerts in your stadium! Or, better yet, hire a grounds crew that actually knows how to take care of a field for crying out loud.
Then again, had I known anything about the situation, perhaps I wouldn’t have been so surprised. Long-time e-mailer Luis A., who lives in Mexico, had this to say:
I’ve been commenting on this with my friends the whole week, nobody had tickets for it, so it doesn’t affect me/us, and for what I know it wasn’t sold out at all. But I can’t believe how stupid the owners of the stadium were, I mean, the TV chain owner of it, it’s known for its corruption and relation with the government (corrupt as well), but not for being that stupid, I guess they just step up their game.
A government and big-business owner being corrupt? That is so shocking. That never happens in Ameri… ah, wait, never mind, I thought we were living in a better parallel universe.
3. I hope everyone reading this has a happy Thanksgiving! This is going to be my 19th-consecutive year covering the NFL on Thanksgiving. I can’t believe that the last time I wasn’t officially working on this site during Thanksgiving was 1998. I imagine some of you reading this weren’t even alive then!
I like to characterize the three Thanksgiving games as such:
The Lions game is the “Walt does Black Friday shopping” game. And by that, I mean I buy stuff for myself as the Lions are getting blown out. Because nothing says Christmas like buying gifts for yourself. The most infamous moment of this was when I bought a Playstation 3 back in 2010 or 2011 because I got a great deal on it. Yet, I didn’t open the box until my now-wife found it in the basement three years later upon moving in! I was simply too lazy to set it up, and then I forgot about it. Now, I use it for Netflix.
The Cowboys game is the “Walt gets chided by his uncle for picking the wrong side” game. I can’t remember the last time I got a Dallas contest correct on Thanksgiving. Every year, my uncle asks me which team I picked as I arrive to my parents’ house, and when I tell him that my loser is down 33-13, he just shakes his head and laughs.
The third game is the “Walt is half asleep and trying his hardest to stay awake” game. I love Thanksgiving food, but the side effect is real. And it keeps getting worse the older I get. I imagine that in another 19 years, I’ll actually be asleep by the end of the first quarter. Hopefully I finally get the Dallas game right by then.
TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Jameis Winston will once again be Tampa’s starter. It should be clear by now that Dirk Koetter has absolutely no idea what he’s doing. He keeps going from quarterback to quarterback like some teenager girl who can’t decide which outfit to wear. It puzzles me why Koetter doesn’t realize that he has unworn clothes buried in the back of his closet. Third-string quarterback Ryan Griffin should be given a chance. Griffin has looked great in the preseason – so good that the Buccaneers have kept him on the roster this entire time. If Griffin is talented enough to make the 53-man roster, why can’t he get a shot? Unlike Ryan Fitzpatrick, Griffin is young enough to potentially be a quarterback of the future, and unlike Winston, Griffin is not a bozo who does stupid things on and off the field.
That said, Winston should have success this week. The 49ers’ back seven is poor, and it just allowed Eli Manning to play well prior to the bye. Perhaps San Francisco will have fixed something during the bye, but that’s unlikely. The 49ers have severe cornerback issues beyond Richard Sherman, which should allow Tampa’s receivers to run wild.
I wrote in the previous paragraph that Winston “should” have success this week. That’s the key word, as Winston’s career has been a colossal disappointment thus far. He’s had many games where he’s thrown multiple horrible interceptions. Given how aloof the Buccaneers tend to be at home, this could be another instance of that.
SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Nick Mullens will be making his first career road start, and it couldn’t come against an easier opponent. The Buccaneers are horrific defensively. They have such severe problems at linebacker that people named Adarius Taylor and DeVante Bond are now three-down defenders for them. Meanwhile, the issues in the secondary continue to persist. Tampa’s defense was so bad last week that Eli Manning threw just one incompletion!
The limited, but very accurate Mullens has played well in two games thus far, and I think he’ll be 3-for-3. Mullens will be able to expose Tampa’s major liabilities with Matt Breida and George Kittle being matched up against the Buccaneers’ awful linebackers. Both Breida and Kittle are excellent talents to begin with, so they could have career games in this situation.
It almost seems odd to say this because it sounds like I’m talking about Tom Brady, but the only chance the Buccaneers have of stopping Mullens and his weapons is by pressuring him heavily. Mullens, however, is protected very well. He has two excellent tackles who will negate Jason Pierre-Paul and Carl Nassib. Gerald McCoy could be a problem, but he’s the only one Mullens needs to worry about.
RECAP: I don’t understand why the Buccaneers are favored by more than a field goal. Unless David returns from injury – which is a possibility – they should be even be -3 as hosts, considering how bad their home-field advantage is.
I don’t like the fact that the 49ers are playing an early game on the East Coast, but they seem like the right side to me at +3.5. I’ll be on them for two units or so if David is out. If David returns, this will be a non-wager.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m planning on increasing my wager on the 49ers, and I’ll have an update on Friday after the final injury report is released. It looks like the Buccaneers could be without all of their linebackers and top two safeties. Meanwhile, the 49ers have been playing much better than people think. They nearly defeated the Chargers in Los Angeles and the Packers in Lambeau. Their loss to the Giants looks better after New York crushed Tampa Bay, whom San Francisco happens to be playing this week. The Buccaneers are trash, while the 49ers are the better team. This could be a four-unit pick.
SATURDAY NOTES: Lavonte David is out, as expected. So is Buccaneers’ top safety Justin Evans. The 49ers have great mismatches to exploit on offense, so I’m going to be betting them heavily. Unfortunately, the sharps have had the same idea, taking this number off +3. I planned on betting four units on San Francisco, but the line movement will push it down to three units. There’s no point in locking it in yet, so I’m going to wait until Sunday morning in hopes of +3 reappearing.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Reuben Foster was arrested for domestic violence and then waived. I’m concerned that this will serve as a distraction for the 49ers, but I still like them for a couple of units. The best number I see is 49ers +1 +100 at 5Dimes.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
Late money coming in on the Buccaneers.
The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
Week 12 NFL Pick: 49ers 27, Buccaneers 24
49ers +1 +100 (2 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$200
Under 54.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Buccaneers 27, 49ers 9
New York Giants (3-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-6)
Line: Eagles by 6. Total: 49.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -9.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Eagles -5.5.
Sunday, Nov 25, 1:00 PM
The Game. Edge: Giants.
As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.
Random College Football Notes:
1. Let’s talk about Ed Oliver’s jacket situation. For those who didn’t see it, Oliver, one of the top players in the country, was forced to remove a jacket he was wearing that simply had the word “Houston” on it by Houston Cougars head coach Major Applewhite. Applewhite was angry about Oliver wearing the jacket because only starters were supposed to be wearing the jacket, and Oliver wasn’t playing in that particular game because of an injury.
This seems like the dumbest story of all time to me. Why in hell would a coach be so furious about a stupid jacket? Who cares if the starters wear it? Oliver is your best player. He’s injured. Just let him wear the damn jacket if he wants to. It’s not the end of the world if he does it.
I feel like this ordeal just makes Applewhite look horrible. Oliver is going to be a superstar in the NFL one day, and high schoolers looking at Houston as a potential school will know what Applewhite did. Applewhite will be known as the guy who disrespected Oliver, and so Houston might lose out on some potential prized recruits for this. No high schooler is going to think, “Man, I really want to play for Coach Applewhite. He really showed Oliver what’s up when he made him take off that jacket.” No! They’re going to think, “I’d like to play for Houston, but Coach Appledouche made Ed Oliver take off a jacket during a game. I don’t want to play for him.”
Congrats, Coach. You got the jacket off your star player. You should be proud.
2. You know those commercials ESPN airs to promote the college football playoff announcement? They show this giant bracket with various teams on it. The teams change, indicating that it’ll be a surprise as to which four are in the predicted bracket. If you’ve watched ESPN at all, you must have seen it.
Well, I noticed something funny about it. As the brackets were flipping through teams, I caught glimpses of some odd schools. I froze my TV and took a picture of it, just to make sure:
Yeah, there it is. Tune into ESPN’s college football playoff announcement show, where you can see a college football bracket comprised of Wisconsin, UAB, Boise State and Army!
Wow, what a quartet that is! I can’t wait to watch Wisconsin take on UAB, and then Army battle Boise State for the right to play for the national championship!
Oh, wait? This can’t happen? Oh, that’s right. Because Central Florida, which has been undefeated for almost two years now, can’t even get into the top 10 of voting!
I can’t believe ESPN would insult our intelligence like this. Why would it lead the audience to believe UAB, Boise State and Army have a chance at the college football playoff? Even if they were undefeated – which they’re not – they wouldn’t even sniff the top 10. The whole system is corrupt, and…
Wait a second… did I just say, “I can’t believe ESPN would insult our intelligence like this?” Wow, that was a dumb thing to write.
3. Speaking of Central Florida, I’d like a second to praise ESPN for its guest picker on College Game Day. ESPN had some excellent choices like many of the talented players to come through Central Florida, including Daunte Culpepper, or perhaps someone popular like Tosh.0.
Instead, ESPN went with Maury Povich. Wow, what a great pick. If I were to compile a list of Central Florida alumni to be the guest picker, Povich would’ve been in 12,716th place, right behind Allen Weiss, President of Worldwide Operations at Walt Disney Parks and Resorts, and the alligator encaged at the Central Florida Zoo. Part of the reason for this is that Povich isn’t even a UCF alumnus, as he went to the University of Pennsylvania, but I’m not sure why that would matter.
No one would’ve guessed Povich would be the guest picker, but leave it to ESPN to keep us on our toes. This sort of interesting decision-making is why ESPN has been such a successful company over the years, and why their employees have enjoyed the best job security in the world.
PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I would’ve been shocked if you had told me ahead of the New Orleans game that the Eagles would score just seven points on the Saints. Yet, that’s exactly what happened, as Philadelphia never had a chance when its Pro Bowl center Jason Kelce exited early with an elbow injury. With the two tackles already playing through injuries, the Eagles couldn’t block with Kelce gone.
Doug Pederson called Kelce “day to day,” which is enormous for obvious reasons. Carson Wentz will have a chance with Kelce on the field, and he’ll be able to expose the Giants’ great liability over the middle of the field. The Giants have had poor linebackers for years, which is why they’ve struggled to defend tight ends so much. Zach Ertz was practically shut out at New Orleans, but he’ll be back to his usual, dominant self in this matchup. That’s obviously a good thing, as Golden Tate hasn’t taken to Philadelphia’s offense particularly well.
Meanwhile, it seems as though the Eagles might just have a running game of sorts. Josh Adams handled 70 percent of the carries last week. While that just meant seven of 10 attempts, Adams looked good in the process, gaining 53 yards. The Giants, no longer stout versus the rush with Snacks Harrison traded to Detroit, just allowed Peyton Barber to eclipse the century mark, so Adams could have a big game.
NEW YORK OFFENSE: Eli Manning has been the primary reason why the Giants have underachieved over the past few years, and he’ll also be the reason why the Giants won’t be able to rebuild properly. The Giants have foolishly kept Manning going as the starter, and he’s won enough games to potentially take New York out of the Justin Herbert sweepstakes. All because Kyle Lauletta hit a police officer with his car!
Manning hasn’t suddenly become great again. Rather, he’s played against two of the worst defenses in the NFL. Luckily for Manning, he’ll have another extremely favorable matchup. The Eagles have so many injuries at cornerback. They were already missing Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills heading into the New Orleans game. In that contest, Sidney Jones, Avonte Maddox and Rasul Douglas all left with injuries. Unless someone returns this week, the Eagles will be using their sixth, seventh and eighth cornerbacks on Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard! Holy moly.
The cornerbacks aren’t the only problem. Middle linebacker Jordan Hicks also got hurt in New Orleans. Hicks is the Eagles’ best run defender and coverage player at the position, so he’ll sorely be missed, especially against Saquon Barkley.
RECAP: I like to compare advance spreads to current lines to find value. The Eagles were -9.5 on the advance line, yet have fallen to -6. Has anything happened in the past week to justify a movement of 3.5 points?
Yeah, I think so. The already banged-up Eagles suffered countless injuries in New Orleans. They’re going to have a skeleton crew on defense, and they’ll likely struggle to contain all of Manning’s weapons.
I hate the line value we lost with the Giants, but they appear to be the right side. I wouldn’t go crazy with this game because we’re not getting a good line, and I don’t really trust Manning, but I could get behind a small wager on New York, depending on how the injury report looks.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is going to be another unit bump. Philadelphia’s injury report looked grim, with no cornerbacks practicing. Jordan Hicks didn’t do anything either. I have no idea how they’re going to cover New York’s play-makers. The Giants, by the way, have some big-time revenge to achieve, as the Eagles humiliated them on national TV. They’ve been much better since the bye, and I don’t see why they can’t cover the six points. The Eagles, by the way, have just ONE win by more than six this year. I’ll have an update once the final injury report is released.
SATURDAY NOTES: I’m locking this in at four units. The Eagles will be without their top five cornerbacks. Doug Pederson even had to use wide receivers in practice! I don’t know how the Eagles are going to defend Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard, Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram. This spread is too high, and the sharps have been betting the Giants down. It’s +5.5 in many books, but still +6 -115 at Bovada. (Update: It’s now +5 in most books.)
FINAL THOUGHTS: Rasul Douglas will play for the Eagles, so instead of Philadelphia’s sixth, seventh and eighth cornerbacks being on the field against the Giants, Philadelphia will have its fourth, sixth and seventh corners. Obviously, the Eagles still seem screwed, especially when considering that Douglas is probably not 100 percent and could leave the game early. I still love the Giants, even at +4.5 if you haven’t bet them yet. It’s probably a three-unit wager at +4.5.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: None.
Week 12 NFL Pick: Eagles 27, Giants 24
Giants +6 -115 (4 Units) – Bovada — Correct; +$400
Over 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Eagles 25, Giants 22
Cleveland Browns (3-6-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-5)
Line: Bengals by 1. Total: 46.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bengals -3.5.
Sunday, Nov 25, 1:00 PM
The Game. Edge: TBA.
If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.
I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Aaron Hernandez, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have brand new Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week!
CINCINNATI OFFENSE: To no one’s surprise, the Bengals have struggled without A.J. Green. They’ve averaged 17.5 points per game without Green compared to 27.6 points with him. The former number is on a small sample size, but take this as a reason to dismiss anyone who proclaims that non-quarterbacks aren’t worth more than half a point on the spread.
Green could be back this week, but it remains to be seen if he’ll be completely healthy. Regardless, Green has a difficult matchup against star rookie cornerback Denzel Ward, so he may not be overly productive. Still, Green’s presence will help immensely, as he’ll draw attention away from Tyler Boyd, who has struggled in the No. 1 role. Boyd will be much better as a secondary option once again.
While the Browns are effective at stopping the pass, their weakness has been their run defense. They’re especially weak to outside tosses, so Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard could both have big games.
CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Green hasn’t been the only prominent Bengal who’s been injured. Cincinnati was without star linebacker Vontaze Burfict and the underrated Nick Vigil in two of the three games in which they surrendered 500-plus yards. Their decimated linebacking corps was responsible for all of the huge offensive performances that went against them.
Burfict returned last week, but played about half the snaps. He clearly wasn’t 100 percent, but he’ll figure to be healthier this week. Vigil, meanwhile, is a question mark. Burfict being closer to 100-percent health will help the Bengals play better against the run, which is now vital versus Cleveland because Nick Chubb has been extremely impressive since taking over the full-time job. Vigil, on the other hand, is Cincinnati’s top coverage linebacker, so his presence will be needed to keep Duke Johnson and David Njoku from having great outputs.
I’m sure Baker Mayfield would love to take advantage of Vigil’s absence. Mayfield had a slump beginning with the Chargers game when he tripped on the first-down marker while scrambling out of bounds. He struggled for a bit because he was playing hurt, but finally shook it off prior to the bye. Mayfield was excellent against the Falcons, and he could have a repeat performance depending on Cincinnati’s injury situation.
RECAP: It’s difficult to handicap this game without knowing the statuses of Green and Vigil. I said a few weeks ago that the Bengals would provide great value once Green, Burfict and Vigil get healthy again, and that could be this week. This spread would’ve been Cincinnati -6 or so a few weeks ago, and yet now it’s -3 because the Bengals have predictably struggled without some of their best players.
This is another game where the injury report will be vital. I may bet the Bengals if all of their players return. I may also select the Browns as a non-wager if Cincinnati continues to miss its key personnel. We’ll see what happens, but for now, I’m going to mark down the Bengals for zero units.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both A.J. Green and Nick Vigil missed practice Wednesday, which is horrible news for the Bengals. Depending on what happens throughout the rest of the week, I may switch my pick.
SATURDAY NOTES: Nick Vigil is out. A.J. Green’s doubtful. It doesn’t sound like Green will play. I thought about switching my pick, but I think Hue Jackson might have something up his sleeve against his former team. I’m staying on Cincinnati for zero units even though there’s a lot of sharp money on the Browns.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bengals have so many injuries, but I’d still take them, especially at this reduced line, because of the knowledge that Hue Jackson will be able to provide about his former team. I’d bet the Bengals if they were healthier.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
Week 12 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Browns 23
Bengals -1 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Browns 35, Bengals 20
New England Patriots (7-3) at New York Jets (3-7)
Line: Patriots by 12.5. Total: 46.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -8.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -7.5.
Sunday, Nov 25, 1:00 PM
The Game. Edge: Patriots.
Video of the Week: Several weeks ago, I posted a video of someone messing around with a scammer. Here’s another hilarious example:
I was just wondering, how do these a**holes get laid at all? Like, if they talk to a woman, and she asks them what they do, do they answer, “I scam people out of hundreds of dollars by pretending them I’m a Windows tech supporter from California?” If these guys got any action, I doubt they’d spend so much time scamming. They’re just pathetic and sad.
NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots were completely shut down prior to the bye, scoring just 10 points at Tennessee. I have to imagine that both Tom Brady and Bill Belichick were fuming during the week off, so it’s reasonable to expect a much better performance from New England’s scoring unit in this game.
The Patriots struggled so much at Tennessee because of offensive line woes. With top guard Shaq Mason out and left tackle Trent Brown dealing with an illness, the Patriots constantly had to shuffle blockers in and out of the lineup, and the Titans were able to expose New England’s liabilities with exotic blitzes. The Jets will not be able to do that, as New England’s offensive line is expected to be healthy in this game. Also, the Jets don’t have the edge-rushing talent to disrupt Brady anyway.
Brady, having more time in the pocket, will be able to beat the Jets with a healthier supporting cast. With nearly a month to heal, Rob Gronkowski should play better. The same thing could be said of Julian Edelman, who hurt his foot late against Tennessee. The bye came at the right time for the Patriots, who seem like they’re at full strength. That’s horrible news for the Jets.
NEW YORK OFFENSE: The one piece of good news for the Jets is that Sam Darnold is expected to return from his foot injury that sidelined him in the blowout loss to Buffalo. Josh McCown looked like an 80-year-old man in that game, so Darnold, despite his turnover issues, will be an upgrade.
There are some issues, however. Darnold is a rookie, of course, and players with no experience tend to struggle against Bill Belichick’s complex schemes. We’ve seen some succeed, like Deshaun Watson last year, but for the most part, Belichick stomps on rookie signal-callers. Also, it’s looking like Robby Anderson could continue to miss action, as he wasn’t able to practice Monday. Anderson is the Jets’ lone big-play threat, so if he’s not available, it’ll make it that much easier to defend them.
Speaking of being able to defend the Jets, opponents have had a much easier time doing that ever since New York lost Bilal Powell to a horrible neck injury. I feel like no one’s talking about it, but New York’s offense has taken a nose dive without its top running back. The Jets averaged 27.5 points per game when Powell played a full game, and they’ve seen that number drop to 10.8 without him. There are obviously other factors involved, and Powell is not worth anywhere near 17 points per game, but there’s no doubt that the Jets’ offense has taken a hit without both him and Anderson.
RECAP: There’s a ton of action on the Patriots, but I think it’s warranted. They’ve had two weeks to think about their blowout loss to the Titans. They’ll be healthy coming out of the bye, and Bill Belichick has enjoyed extra time to prepare for a rookie quarterback who is likely going to be missing his top two weapons.
This has “blowout” written all over it, and I’m even willing to bet a few units on it. If you’re afraid to take a road team laying this many points, keep in mind that the Patriots have covered four of the six previous occasions in which they were favored by nine or more as visitors, most recently winning in Buffalo on Monday Night Football, 25-6. Oh, and by the way, the only two times Brady and Belichick have been favored by nine or more on the road coming off a bye, they defeated the Bills, 56-10 (in 2007) and the Cowboys, 30-6 (in 2015).
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As I’m typing this, I heard someone on NFL Network just say, “The Patriots aren’t the Patriots anymore.” Yep, sounds like New England’s going to win by 30 this week. Sam Darnold, by the way, missed practice on Wednesday.
SATURDAY NOTES: Tom Brady is questionable. The spread was taken off the board on Friday. I’m going to re-list this as “TBA units.” I’ll have an update Sunday morning once Brady’s status is known.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski will play. It’s unclear if Brady is 100 percent, making them a risky play. The public doesn’t care – this spread has mved up to -12.5 or -13 – as they’ve been betting the Patriots with reckless abandon. I’d be upset if I didn’t bet at least a unit against Josh McCown, so this is just going to be a small play. The best line is -13 +100 at Bookmaker.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
Does anyone want to bet on the Jets?
The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
Week 12 NFL Pick: Patriots 34, Jets 10
Patriots -13 +100 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$100
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 27, Jets 13
Seattle Seahawks (5-5) at Carolina Panthers (6-4)
Line: Panthers by 3. Total: 46.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Panthers -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -4.
Sunday, Nov 25, 1:00 PM
The Game. Edge: Panthers.
Two years ago, on the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts, Tom Brady was elected as the President of the United States, as it was revealed that he was the only candidate running because both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were figments of his imagination. He followed that up by stopping Vladimir Putin from hacking the NFL. In doing so, however, Tom Brady was stuck in an evil dimension, and his evil counterpart has come into our world. No one is aware that Tom Brady is now Evil Tom Brady, which is great for Evil Tom Brady because he can begin devastating the world…
To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!
CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers did not look like a team that wanted to bounce back from a 30-point blowout last week. They played extremely sloppily against the Lions, as Devin Funchess dropped four passes all by himself. Despite this, Carolina had a chance to win at the very end, but thanks to poor mechanics, Cam Newton missed a wide-open receiver in the end zone for what would’ve been the game-winning two-point conversion.
Newton should play much better this week, as he usually performs better at home. It’ll help that he won’t be facing another cornerback as talented as Darius Slay this week, as the Seahawks don’t have anyone to erase one side of the field. Seattle’s corners actually cover quite poorly, so Newton should connect more often to Funchess, as well as D.J. Moore, who is becoming a dynamic threat. Also, the Seahawks lack a consistent pass-rusher outside of Frank Clark, so the Panthers should have more success on this side of the ball, given that Newton only has to worry about Clark rushing him.
The Seahawks still do some things well on this side of the ball, however. Thanks to the dynamic play of Bobby Wagner, one of the top linebackers in the NFL, Seattle tends to smother tight ends and limit running backs. Christian McCaffrey is difficult to shut down, but the Seahawks will be able to slow him a bit. They’ll also be able to keep Greg Olsen from doing anything relevant, in all likelihood.
SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks have won some games recently by establishing their ground game. Their offensive line has been better in run blocking, though that could change this week. Carolina is excellent at defending the rush, so I don’t see Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny breaking free for long gains again.
If that’s the case, the Seahawks will have an inconsistent scoring unit, as stud defensive tackle Kawann Short will have an easy time disrupting the middle of Seattle’s offensive line, which is still a major liability in pass protection. This was apparent a couple of weeks ago when the Rams put heavy heat on Russell Wilson, forcing him into a late turnover that nearly covered the spread.
Wilson, fortunately, was able to throw a touchdown to tighten things up late in the game. Wilson, despite the offensive line woes and the lack of talent in the receiving corps outside of Doug Baldwin, is still performing on a high level. Wilson should be able to put a healthy number of points on the board by connecting with Baldwin and Tyler Lockett, as Carolina’s group of cornerbacks is poor outside of Donte Jackson.
RECAP: I like the Panthers to bounce back from two consecutive losses. Remember, prior to those defeats, they beat the Ravens and Buccaneers by double digits. They’re much better at home, so it’s not a surprise that they’ve struggled so much lately, given that they’ve played on the road the past couple of weeks.
In addition to having the Panthers home again, we’re getting some nice spread value with them. The advance line was Carolina -4.5, yet it’s down to -3 because of the loss to Detroit, as well as Seattle’s victory over Green Bay. This line might have been even higher two weeks ago when Carolina was 6-2, perhaps -5.5, or even -6.
The Seattle win gets me to my next point, which is that the Seahawks, excluding the season in which they won the Super Bowl, have struggled over the years in early East Coast games. They won earlier in Detroit this year, sure, but you can’t compare the Lions, who were flat off a double-digit win at Miami, and the Panthers, who will be desperate to end their two-game losing streak.
With the public backing the Seahawks heavily, I’m going to bet four units on Carolina -3, as this seems like a great buy-low opportunity.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m completely off the Panthers for now. Carolina’s injury report looks very grim. Also, the Seahawks are not a public dog anymore, as action has mysteriously evened out.
SATURDAY NOTES: I wrote earlier that the Panthers’ injury report looked grim. The Seahawks are going to be missing linebacker K.J. Wright and perhaps receiver Doug Baldwin, but I think they’ll be OK. Still, Carolina is worth a small wager. I’m going to wait until Sunday morning in hopes of getting -3 -110. The best number I found is -3 -120 at various books.
FINAL THOUGHTS: There are lines of Panthers -3 -110 available everywhere. I thought about betting them, but I’ve decided against it. Carolina should not have lost to the Lions if it were a good team, and it shouldn’t have dropped a game to the overrated Steelers by 31. Something might be wrong with the Panthers.
The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.
The Panthers will be desperate to end their two-game losing streak, while the Seahawks are off a big win on national TV.
The Vegas. Edge: Nne.
The Seahawks were looking like a big public dog, but it’s evened out.
The Trends. Edge: None.
Week 12 NFL Pick: Panthers 31, Seahawks 24
Panthers -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 30, Panthers 27
Week 12 NFL Picks – Late Games
Arizona at LA Chargers, Miami at Indianapolis, Pittsburgh at Denver, Green Bay at Minnesota, Tennessee at Houston
Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
NFL Picks - Nov. 20
2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20
NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19
Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4
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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905
2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)
2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905
2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)
2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.
| Cowboys: 6-3 |
Bears: 5-5 |
Bucs: 6-4 |
49ers: 6-4 |
| Eagles: 5-5 |
Lions: 9-1 |
Falcons: 6-5 |
Cardinals: 8-2 |
| Giants: 3-6 |
Packers: 6-3 |
Panthers: 4-6 |
Rams: 5-5 |
| Redskins: 5-5 |
Vikings: 4-6 |
Saints: 5-6 |
Seahawks: 6-3 |
| |
|
||
| Bills: 4-7 |
Bengals: 2-9 |
Colts: 6-5 |
Broncos: 7-4 |
| Dolphins: 4-6 |
Browns: 3-7 |
Jaguars: 3-7 |
Chargers: 6-3 |
| Jets: 6-5 |
Ravens: 5-5 |
Texans: 5-6 |
Chiefs: 4-5 |
| Patriots: 6-3 |
Steelers: 4-6 |
Titans: 6-3 |
Raiders: 5-5 |
| |
|
||
| Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561) |
2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387) |
2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441) |
2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211) |
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446) |
2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293) |
Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185) |
Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37) |
2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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