NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2018

NFL Picks (Preseason 2018): 11-10 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 8-7-1 (+$150)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$80)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2018): 8-8 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2018): 8-6-1 (+$280)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2018): 10-4-1 (+$1,415)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2018): 6-7-2 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2018): 7-7 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2018): 6-8 (+$510)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2018): 5-8 (-$1,445)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2018): 5-8-1 (-$735)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2018): 5-5-3 (+$950)

NFL Picks (2018): 87-85-10 (+$75)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$3,790)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 25, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 12 NFL Picks – Early Games

Arizona Cardinals (2-8) at Los Angeles Chargers (7-3)
Line: Chargers by 14. Total: 43.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -13.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chargers -10.5.
Sunday, Nov 25, 4:05 PM

The Game. Edge: None.

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ARIZONA OFFENSE: I’m starting with the Cardinals’ offense because there’s major concern with the Chargers’ defense. Two weeks ago, the Chargers lost its top linebacker, Denzel Perryman, for the season. Already down Kyzir White, San Angeles suddenly had a glaring lack of talent in their linebacking corps. Things only got worse this past Sunday when the team’s best interior defensive lineman, Corey Liuget, was also lost for the year.

It goes without saying that this is horrible news for the Chargers. They won’t be able to defend the run or the middle of the field, which was evident in last week’s contest when the Broncos attacked the middle of the field with Phillip Lindsay. I imagine that Arizona will be able to do the same with David Johnson, who has been much better since Byron Leftwich took over as offensive coordinator.

Given the sudden problems the Chargers have, it’s a good thing that Joey Bosa has finally returned to action. Bosa played about half the snaps last week, so he’ll be more active in this game. Thus, it’ll be crucial for the Cardinals to get their left tackle, D.J. Humphries, back from injury. Humphries missed last week’s game, and Arizona couldn’t block the Raiders as a result. Humphries being around would give the Cardinals a fighting chance to block Melvin Ingram, leaving them to just worry about Bosa, who isn’t at full strength yet.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers are coming off a sloppy game in which they made many mistakes. I’m not sure if they’ll be able to remedy things after just one week, which could make it difficult for them to score consistently on the Cardinals, who recently limited the Chiefs to “just” 26 points. Sure, Kansas City was looking ahead to playing the Rams, but the Chargers also will be looking past Arizona with a battle against the Steelers on the horizon.

The Cardinals have some talent on this side of the ball, as they’ve defended tight ends and pass-catching running backs well this year. They might be able to keep Melvin Gordon from going off, and they’ll also have a decent chance at containing Keenan Allen, thanks to Patrick Peterson’s excellent coverage.

Unfortunately for Arizona, its other cornerbacks have struggled all year, so Philip Rivers will be able to exploit those liabilities with his other receivers. Rivers should have plenty of time in the pocket, as left tackle Russell Okung should be able to handle Arizona’s lone consistent pass-rusher, Chandler Jones.

RECAP: I touched on this earlier, but I don’t expect the Chargers to be focused this week. They have a big game against the Steelers coming up, which could determine the No. 2 seed in the AFC. I can’t imagine them taking the Cardinals seriously, especially after watching Arizona lose to an Oakland team that they beat twice!

That’s one of the reasons I like the Cardinals for a few units. A second is that I love the matchup the Cardinals have with Johnson going up against the Chargers’ injury-ravaged linebacking corps. And the third has to deal with that, as the Chargers are favored by too many points considering how banged up they are. This is no longer the team we saw earlier in the year. The Chargers will be worse without Liuget and Perryman, yet there have been no line adjustments made.

With both Liuget and Perryman out, the Cardinals should be able to score enough points to cover this very large spread. This will be a three-unit wager, assuming Humphries returns from injury.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: D.J. Humphries didn’t practice Wednesday, but I still like the Cardinals a good deal, as this spread is way too high considering the Chargers will be distracted.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s a bummer that D.J. Humphries has been ruled out, but I still like the Cardinals. Melvin Gordon is dealing with balky hamstrings and may not play. I’m hoping that +14 becomes available at some point, as the public is moving this spread up.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds like Melvin Gordon will play, which has pushed this line up to -14. I’m going to lock in Arizona at +14 for three units now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both Melvin Gordon and Tyrell Williams are active for the Chargers, but I still like Arizona for three units at +14.

The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.

The Chargers are a veteran team that happens to be favored by double digits before taking on a tough foe (Steelers). They’ll be flat.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Lots of action on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 70% (12,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Chargers -11.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Chargers 27, Cardinals 20
Cardinals +14 (3 Units) – any sportsbook — Incorrect; -$330
Over 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chargers 45, Cardinals 10

Miami Dolphins (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (5-5)
Line: Colts by 9. Total: 52.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: No Line (Tannehill).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Colts -6.
Sunday, Nov 25, 4:25 PM

The Game. Edge: Colts.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 11 is underway! In Episode 11, the Patriots once again have to play without a quarterback. Meanwhile, Emmitt’s goose gets on the loose!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts have looked great ever since they lost to the Jets in Week 6. Coincidentally, that’s when T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle returned from injury. The Colts dropped countless passes in games Hilton missed, so his return was a huge boon for the team, which has scored 37, 42, 29 and 38 in its previous four games.

Hilton and Doyle aren’t the only reasons why Andrew Luck has been so unstoppable in recent weeks. The offensive line needs to be praised as well. Indianapolis’ blocking has been terrible for so long, but that changed this year. The Colts suddenly have a much improved blocking group, and Luck, as a consequence, has not taken a sack since Week 5, which is incredible. There might be a chink in the armor, however, as center Ryan Kelly suffered an injury last week, but only one lineman being down is OK. Besides, the Dolphins don’t have an imposing interior pass-rusher in the wake of Ndamukong Suh’s departure to take advantage of Kelly’s absence.

Luck should once again have all the time in the world to dissect the opposition. The Dolphins cover No. 1 receivers well because of Xavien Howard, but Luck will be able to attack the linebackers with his dual tight ends. Also, new No. 2 receiver Dontrelle Inman has helped a lot, earning the praise of both Luck and head coach Frank Reich. He could have a solid outing with Howard covering Hilton.

MIAMI OFFENSE: There was some question as to whether or not Ryan Tannehill would return from injury. It turns out he will, which sparked the spread to drop from +10 to +9. This is a shame for us degenerate gamblers, as one more opportunity to fade the atrocious Brock Osweiler would have been sweet.

Tannehill isn’t a very good quarterback, but he’s far better than Osweiler. It remains to be seen, however, what his supporting cast will look like. Both of Miami’s tackles were out for the Green Bay game, while the receiving corps has also dealt with injuries. In previous years, Tannehill would’ve been able to have success against Indianapolis’ poor defense regardless, but the Colts have been much better on this side of the ball, thanks to the emergence of rookie linebacker Darius Leonard, whose presence has helped the Colts in all facets.

The Colts just shut down the Titans’ ground attack last week, so they should be able to handle their former teammate, Frank Gore. Thus, it’ll be on Tannehill’s shoulders to win this game, making it crucial for him to have as many healthy blockers and receivers as possible.

RECAP: We know Tannehill is going to play, but we’re unaware of what his supporting cast will look like. If both tackles are out again, I’ll plan on betting the Colts. Conversely, if almost everyone is healthy for Miami, the Dolphins will be worth picking, as this spread seems absurdly high. Sure, the Colts just demolished the Titans, but Tennessee was flat in that game. Right before that, the Colts beat the Jaguars by only three, and I consider the Dolphins, with Tannehill, to be better than Jacksonville.

I’m going to pencil in the Dolphins as a zero-unit pick for now, but this is something that could change later in the week. Check back, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line has dropped to +7.5, which seems odd, given that Ryan Tannehill doesn’t appear to be healthy. Tannehill was limited in Wednesday’s practice, and it seems as though he’s being rushed back. I think this is bad news for the Dolphins, and I’m willing to change sides because of it.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ryan Tannehill wasn’t listed on the injury report, but was limited in practice all week. I don’t think Tannehill is completely healthy, so the Colts are worth a small wager.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The public has moved the Colts to -9, but given that nine is the least-likely result within two touchdowns, the movement doesn’t matter. However, if you want to bet the Colts, get them in now because you don’t want to risk the spread hitting -10. Bovada currently has -9 -105, which I’ll lock in for a unit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been a bit of sharp action on the Dolphins at +9, but I still like the Colts for a very small play, as I don’t think Ryan Tannehill is completely healthy.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Miami: 52% (11,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Underdog is 82-59 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 141 games.

Dolphins are 6-15 ATS after a bye the previous 21 years.

Andrew Luck is 26-14 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Colts -10.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Colts 31, Dolphins 21
Colts -9 -105 (1 Unit) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$105
Over 52 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Colts 27, Dolphins 24

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2-1) at Denver Broncos (4-6)
Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 47.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -1.5.
Sunday, Nov 25, 4:25 PM

The Game. Edge: TBA.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is stories of Bill Cosby, Gym Vacations and Cheesesteaks

DENVER OFFENSE: I imagine the Broncos watched what the Jaguars did to the Steelers and attempt to do the same thing. Jacksonville pounded the ball down Pittsburgh’s throat with Leonard Fournette and Carlos Hyde. The Broncos have the horses to do something similar. Phillip Lindsay has been terrific in his rookie campaign, while Royce Freeman has returned to serve as a solid complement. That said, Denver’s ability to keep the chains moving on the ground partly depends on the availability of Steelers defensive end Stephon Tuitt. The former Notre Dame alumnus is one of the better five-techniques in the NFL, and his absence last year allowed Jacksonville to be dominant on the ground.

Tuitt’s presence will affect Case Keenum’s protection as well. That’ll be crucial, considering that the Broncos are missing three starting interior offensive linemen. Case Keenum saw some pressure last week, and it’ll be worse if Tuitt is on the field. Conversely, if Tuitt is out, Keenum will have more time than anticipated to find his weapons.

Keenum will need the time because one of his two primary receivers, Courtland Sutton, figured to be smothered by elite cornerback Joe Haden. Emmanuel Sanders, on the other hand, could have a stellar performance, as the Steelers’ corners outside of Haden are lacking.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Like the Steelers, the Broncos possess one very talented cornerback. That would be Chris Harris, and he’ll be able to slow down one of Pittsburgh’s two stellar receivers. The problem is that the Steelers have both Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Denver won’t be able to deal with both of them. The Jaguars have two talented corners to slow down both Brown and Smith-Schuster, but the Broncos don’t have that luxury after getting rid of Aqib Talib this previous offseason.

The Broncos can make up for their poor depth in the secondary with their great pass rush. Their front can dominate most teams, but the Steelers usually block very well and will be able to keep Roethlisberger’s pocket clean. In addition to connecting to one of his receivers frequently, Roethlisberger will be able to attack the middle of the field with tight end Vance McDonald. The Broncos are woefully inept against tight ends, so I imagine that McDonald, or perhaps Jesse James, will have a big performance.

Another liability the Broncos have on this side of the ball is defending pass-catching running backs. We just saw Melvin Gordon have a big game aerially, so I imagine that James Conner could have a similar output. Conner won’t have as much success on the ground, though he’ll likely be able to tumble into the end zone once or twice.

RECAP: If the Steelers have Tuitt back in the lineup, I think they’ll cover the spread. This line was -6 a week ago at the Westgate, but it has since fallen three points because the Broncos beat the Chargers and Pittsburgh nearly lost to Jacksonville.

A three-point adjustment that has nothing to do with injuries is almost always an overreaction, so we’re getting some value with the Steelers. The problem is that Pittsburgh might be looking ahead to next week’s game against the Chargers.

I’m going to side with the Steelers, but I may change my mind if Tuitt is ruled out. Tuitt’s presence will be that important, as Pittsburgh won’t be able to control the line of scrimmage if he’s missing again.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Based on what I’ve read, it doesn’t sound like Stephon Tuitt is going to play. I’m going to change sides to the Broncos on Friday if Tuitt is ruled out.

SATURDAY NOTES: Stephon Tuitt is out, which is a big deal because the Broncos’ offensive line will be able to open up some running lanes for Phillip Lindsay. As promised, I’m switching sides to avoid all the public action on Pittsburgh.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s a ton of money coming in on the Steelers, and yet this line hasn’t moved. It’s such a shame that the spread isn’t more favorable.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, this number is disappointing. I wanted Broncos at +4 at the very least. The +3 just isn’t good enough, though I do think the Broncos are the right side.

The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.

The Steelers have the Chargers after this game.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

A decent lean on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 73% (10,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Mike Tomlin is 7-3 ATS as a favorite in his second consecutive road game.

Steelers are 24-38 ATS as road favorites since 2007.

Steelers are 12-27 ATS as road favorites coming off a win under Mike Tomlin.

Broncos are 21-11 ATS as home underdogs since 1991.

Opening Line: Steelers -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Sunny, 43 degrees. Light wind.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Steelers 24, Broncos 23
Broncos +3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 47.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 24, Steelers 17

Green Bay Packers (4-5-1) at Minnesota Vikings (5-4-1)
Line: Vikings by 3. Total: 47.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Vikings -4.
Sunday, Nov 25, 8:20 PM

The Game. Edge: Vikings.

I’m going to devote this section to Ross Avila. If this is your first time reading this, and you don’t know who Ross is, he’s a douche who harassed me on Facebook about my picks all last year. Here are some of the things he said:

He wrote this to me during the Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl, where he bragged about being right about Atlanta. Oops.

Ross constantly embarrassed himself throughout the year, including when he posted this, suggesting that he sold picks to people:

I eventually unfriended Ross. He started going after women on my Facebook page, including my then-fiancee. I warned him, and he didn’t listen, so I unfriended him.

Because I was a big part of Ross’ life, he sent me countless messages. I’ve shown you some already. Check this one out:

I actually won that weekend, yet Ross is pointing out the one pick I got wrong. And considering that Ross will probably never have more than $5,000 in his bank account in his life, I highly doubt he bet that much on the Eagles.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: One of the reasons why the Bears seemed like such an obvious side to me last week was because the Vikings’ offensive line wouldn’t be able to block Chicago’s terrific defensive front. If you don’t think the Vikings would normally be presented with the same problem against the Packers, allow me to introduce you to Kenny Clark and Mike Daniels, two of the best defensive linemen in the NFL. Unfortunately for Green Bay, Daniels is out, while Clark’s status is in question after leaving Thursday night’s game early.

With Daniels and Clark both gone, the Packers stood no chance of stopping the Seahawks late in the game, making Mike McCarthy’s decision to punt on a late fourth down look even worse. As for this game, if Clark is out, Green Bay will have similar problems. The Vikings will be able to establish a running game, which they weren’t able to do against the Bears, and Kirk Cousins will enjoy a clean pocket, which he also didn’t possess last Sunday night.

The Packers, as you may know, have severe issues in their secondary. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix’s absence has had a huge impact, while the cornerbacks, outside of Jaire Alexander, have struggled as well. Alexander should do a good job of slowing down one of Minnesota’s prolific receivers – I imagine he’ll be on Adam Thielen – allowing the other to go off.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Vikings have a stellar defensive line, much like the Packers, except their group is healthy. The Packers, conversely, don’t block nearly as poorly as the Vikings do, but they have some liabilities up front, particularly at guard. I imagine that Linval Joseph and Sheldon Richardson will have a tremendous amount of success winning their matchups in the interior, which will create some problems for the Packers.

Aaron Rodgers will be pressured heavily, and making matters worse, his receiving corps is in question. It’s unclear if Randall Cobb will play, while Geronimo Allison is out. Jimmy Graham, meanwhile, is dealing with a broken thumb. He said he’s going to play, but he’ll likely be ineffective. Rodgers will still have Davante Adams at his disposal, but Adams will have to deal with one of the better cornerbacks in the NFL in Xavier Rhodes.

The Packers will have to establish the running game to ease some pressure off Rodgers. Aaron Jones has been a huge boon for Green Bay’s offense, as he’s been much more explosive than Jamaal Williams, but it could be difficult for Jones to find running room, as the Vikings are strong against the rush.

RECAP: I took out a five-unit bet against the Vikings last Sunday night, but I might be doing the opposite this week. I love Minnesota in this spot.

This line should be higher than -3, and it actually was on the Westgate advance spread, which was -4. That seems more reasonable, and yet that didn’t even take into account that Daniels and Clark could both miss this game. I can’t stress enough how enormous it would be if both were sidelined. It would take the greatest advantage the Packers have in this game and turn it into a liability.

Despite this, casual bettors are betting the Packers at a high rate. Green Bay is a huge public dog, even though it hasn’t won a road game this year. The Packers couldn’t even win at Washington or Detroit, so how are they going to prevail in Minnesota’s tough home field, especially considering how short-handed they are?

This is one of my top plays of the week. I’ll be on the Vikings for at least four units, and I’ll probably be at five, especially if Clark can’t play.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Kenny Clark is going to play – he wasn’t even limited in practice – which is a bummer for those planning to bet on the Vikings. Randall Cobb returned to practice as well. I still really like the Vikings, but this won’t be a five-unit selection.

SATURDAY NOTES: It looks like the Packers will be down a couple of starting defensive backs, as well as Mike Daniels, who has been ruled out. I still love Minnesota, and I’m going to bet them for four units.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line just moved to -3.5 despite lots of action on the Packers. The sharps are pounding the Vikings. I don’t like -3.5 as much, so I’ll have to decide what I’m going a half hour prior to kickoff.

FINAL THOUGHTS: If the Vikings were still -3, I’d be on them for four units. Unfortunately, this spread is now -3.5, though -3 is still available at -130 at Bovada and -133 at Bookmaker. Mathematically, -3.5 -110 is slightly better than -3 -130, but give that Aaron Rodgers could easily get a late score to trim the margin to three, I’d rather pay for the -3. Because of the unfavorable juice, I’m going to decrease my unit count to two, as I’m effectively paying nearly three units to win two, which is a bummer.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

No one wants to bet the Vikings after what they saw Sunday night.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 67% (17,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Packers have won 11 of the last 14 meetings Aaron Rodgers has played fully, excluding a 2018 tie.

Packers are 46-26 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Aaron Rodgers is 85-58 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 25-13 ATS after a loss (11-6 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Aaron Rodgers is 19-16 ATS as an underdog.

Mike Zimmer is 49-24 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Vikings are 27-11 ATS at home since 2014.

Opening Line: Vikings -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Dome.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Vikings 34, Packers 27
Vikings -3 -130 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 47.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0

Tennessee Titans (5-5) at Houston Texans (7-3)
Line: Titans by 4.5. Total: 41.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Texans -2.5.
Monday, Nov 26, 8:15 PM

The Game. Edge: Titans.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have two people I don’t know calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Texas, where the Tennessee Tigers take on the Houston Texas. Guys, no one cares about the NFC South, so it’s good that the day has finally arrived. It’s time to count the votes for the Blemmys. If you’re not familiar with the Blemmys, they’re like the Emmys except for sports announcers. I was recently accused of sexually insulting a woman in high school even though I was home schooled, and mother was the only girl there, but the accuser recanted her statement, so I’m in prime position to win the award!

Emmitt: Award, when we gonna stop with this nonscent and just start talkin’ about football? I real interestingly in this matchup. The Texan have a guy name Deshaun Watkins who real good at throw, and the Titan have a guy name Marcus Johnson who real good at runny guy. So who gonna win? I care who winneds this game more than who winneds or losts the Benjis.

Reilly: That’s Blemmys, Emmitt, and you’re a fool if you think NFL games matter if my Philadelphia Eagles aren’t involved. No other teams matter compared to my Philadelphia Eagles. See? This is the sort of great analysis you get when you tune into us! Now, let’s get to the votes. Oh, looks like I’ve won the 2018 Blemmy for best play-by-play guy! Me! I bet mother is so proud of her little poopikins!

Tollefson: I wouldn’t say you’ve won yet, Mr. Poopikins. I’m a close second, and I demand a recount.

Reilly: A recount? Blemmys don’t have a recount! I won fair and square!

Wolfley: I DON’T THINK THAT’S AN ACCURATE STATEMENT, KEVIN. I’VE MET LOTS OF SQUARES IN MY LIFE, AND MANY OF THEM ARE UNFAIR.

Fouts: And here’s what he means by square. A square is one type of shape. If this is confusing to you, consider another type of shape, a circle. A circle, much like square, is a type of shape. If you haven’t heard of either of these, let me introduce you to the triangle. A triangle is both a shape and a musical instrument, much like the piano. A piano is a shape, much like the square, the circle and the triangle. There are also rare shapes, such as the parallengogram. This looks like a square except someone broke both sides of it with a hammer, which, incidentally, is another shape! There are lots of shapes, and I hope Charles Davis discusses more with Kevin Reilly later!

Reilly: We’re not talking about damn shapes! Let’s keep talking Blemmys because I am the winner, but by rule, we have to do a recount because the second-place person can always request it. The recount can be monitored on our screen right now, and wait, why is it so close all of a sudden!?

Tollefson: What? I didn’t have an old woman place extra votes in the ballot box! I mean, uhh, let the best man win, Reilly.

Herm: SHE DID IT! SHE PUT THE VOTES IN! I SAW IT! I NOTICED IT! I WITNESSED IT! I SPIED IT! I SPY A CHEATER! I SPY A FRAUD! I SPY A SCOUNDREL! I SPY WRONGDOING! I SPY! SPY VS. SPY! WHO’S THE WHITE SPY!? WHO’S THE BLACK SPY!? WHY ONLY TWO COLORS OF SPIES! WHY’S THERE NO RED SPY!? WHY’S THERE NO YELLOW SPY!? WHY’S THERE NO BLUE SPY!? WHY’S THERE NO WHITE SPY!? WAIT, THERE IS A WHITE SPY! THERE’S A WHITE SPY! I KNOW THERE’S A WHITE SPY! I KNOW… uhh… ummm…

Reilly: Herm, can you shut the f**k up, seriously? There are pressing issues right now. The next score count is coming in, and now I’m losing! Noooo!!!

Tollefson: Note to self, when you want to win a vote, threaten to kidnap the granddaughter of the woman in charge of counting ballots so that extra votes appear for you out of nowhere. I mean, uhh, I didn’t do that, I swear! This recount is totally legit!

Reilly: New daddy, help! Don Tollefson is cheating the voting, and I’m going to lose! Please stop him!

Cutler: Hey Tolly, can you stop doing whatever you’re doing to make that kid cry?

Tollefson: No! This is my vote to win!

Cutler: Meh, I tried.

Reilly: You didn’t try, new daddy! Now, I’m definitely going to lose! WAAAHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Charles Davis: Kevin, looks like you asked the wrong person to help you, Kevin. Luckily, Kevin, I have this magical time turner, Kevin, to go back and time to stop things from happening, Kevin. I’m just going to turn this, Kevin, and bam, Kevin, just like that, Kevin, I went back in time, Kevin, and prevented Tolly from threatening that old lady, Kevin. Kevin, if you’re wondering what I did with that old lady, Kevin, I put her in an old folks home, Kevin, where she belongs, Kevin, so she can interact with other people who have Albert Einstein haircuts, Kevin. Now, Kevin, it looks like you won your Blemmy, Kevin! Can’t wait until the awards ceremony, Kevin.

Reilly: Charles Davis, you are my new hero! Not like new daddy. I can’t believe you helped me win a Blemmy after I tried to kill you so many times over the years. I love you, Charles Davis! We’ll be right after this!

Charles Davis (inaudibly): Yes, Kevin, I can’t wait for the awards ceremony, Kevin, because that’s exactly when you will see what exactly I have in store for you, Kevin, and that’s when you’ll learn never to cross me, Kevin, muhahaha, Kevin.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: There’s no line on this game because of Marcus Mariota’s status. Mariota injured his arm just prior to halftime at Indianapolis. It appeared as though it was going to be the same injury that sidelined him in September, where he lost all feeling in his hand. Fortunately, that does not appear to be the case, as it’s been reported that Mariota suffered just a stinger.

If that’s what it is – Mariota will be getting a second opinion – then there should be a spread posted soon, as he figures to be 100 percent. If so, that’ll be huge, considering what the alternative is. Blaine Gabbert wouldn’t stand a chance against Houston’s defense, but Mariota’s legs give him an opportunity to score some points. Tennessee’s talented offensive line should keep Mariota clean for the most part, but his mobility will allow him to escape from some pressures.

It’ll all be on Mariota’s shoulders, as the Titans won’t be able to run the ball very effectively. The Texans are terrific against the rush, and it’s not like Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry have been very effective on the ground this year. Lewis will, at least, provide Mariota with a solid receiving threat out of the backfield.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: I hate ESPN, but I watch all the Monday shows habitually so I can hear all of the overreactions by the talking heads. One person this week said that he thinks that the Texans are a Super Bowl contender. Listen, I have a 22/1 $100 ticket on the Texans to win the Super Bowl, and I’ll even say that they’re not a Super Bowl contender. They’re just not.

The reason for this is Houston’s offensive line. The Texans simply can’t block whatsoever, and out of all the teams in playoff contention, they have the worst front. We’ve seen the Texans struggle to put away bad teams like the Bills, Redskins and Cowboys (pre-Amari Cooper) because they can’t score consistently enough as a result of awful blocking. They’ve had major problems when matched up against teams with strong fronts, including the three I just mentioned. The Titans are included in that group. Two weeks ago, Tennessee was able to use exotic blitzes to expose liabilities on New England’s offensive line to rattle the great Tom Brady, and I have to imagine that the Titans will be able to use the same strategy against the Texans.

Deshaun Watson, as a result, will take plenty of sacks and turn the ball over some more. He’ll have some occasional promising drives because DeAndre Hopkins won’t be stopped – the Titans’ secondary couldn’t even contain T.Y. Hilton – but the Texans will falter in the red zone, just like they always do. Their red-zone offense has been woeful this year because of the poor offensive line, horrible coaching and pedestrian running game.

RECAP: I can’t issue a pick yet, but if Mariota is healthy, I like the Titans. I imagine this spread will be greater than three because of the records of these two teams, and that would be a huge mistake. The overrated Texans can’t block, and Tennessee, as a result, matches up extremely favorably against them.

I’ll have an official pick when the spread is posted, and I imagine it’ll be a big play. Check back, or follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Titans +6.5 is up, but it’s still unclear if Marcus Mariota will play. It sounds like he will, but we’ll see. I’ll have my official pick posted by Saturday evening.

PICK POSTED: Marcus Mariota is practicing fully, which is exactly what I wanted to see. This spread is already beginning to fall. It’s +6 everywhere except the sharpest book, Pinnacle, which has +5.5 available. This spread is way too high, as the Titans are better than the Texans are going to be able to exploit their putrid offensive line. This is a five-unit wager.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ugh. I thought I locked this pick in already. I did not. This spread has fallen to +4.5 (5Dimes) or +4 (most books). It’s even +3.5 at Pinnacle, the sharpest book. The sharps are pounding Tennessee, and I’m going to lock in +4.5 at 5Dimes for four units.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’ve been asked if I think Bob McNair’s death will impact this game. I could be wrong, but I don’t think the Texan players liked McNair very much because he called them inmates recently. So, if anything, this could help the Titans because Houston could be distracted.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: I locked in the Titans earlier, but would still bet them at four units at the moment. All of the +4.5s are gone – congrats if you got +6 – but +4 is good enough.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharp money continues to pour in on the Titans. This line has dropped to +3.5 in most places, and CRIS, one of the sharpest books, is even down to +3! If you haven’t bet this game until now, I’d take the Titans at +3.5 for three units, +4 to +5.5 for four units and +6 or more for five units. I love Tennessee, as it should be able to win in the trenches and rattle Deshaun Watson behind his horrible offensive line. Plus, Mike Vrabel knows a thing or two about his former team’s personnel.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

The public likes the host.

Percentage of money on Houston: 65% (7,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

History: Texans have won 9 of the last 13 meetings.

Opening Line: Titans -6.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Titans 20, Texans 17
Titans +4.5 (4 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$440
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 34, Titans 17

Week 12 NFL Picks – Early Games
Chicago at Detroit, Washington at Dallas, Atlanta at New Orleans, Jacksonville at Buffalo, Cleveland at Cincinnati, New England at NY Jets, NY Giants at Philadelphia, San Francisco at Tampa Bay, Seattle at Carolina, Oakland at Baltimore

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: 49ers +7.5, Colts -2.5 (2 Units, -110, 5Dimes) — Incorrect; -$220

I wish we had two teams to take up through seven, but the 49ers are the only option this week. The Colts should be able to win outright though, so I like them at -2.5 for the second option.

NFL Picks - Dec. 13

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
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2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)