NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 8-7-1 (+$150)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$80)
NFL Picks (2018): 27-24-2 (+$515)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$3,790)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.
Vegas betting action updated Sept. 23, 11:25 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.
Go to Week 3 NFL Picks – Late Games
New York Jets (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-1-1)
Line: Browns by 3. Total: 41.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Browns -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Browns -2.5.
Thursday, Sept 20, 8:20 PM
The Game. Edge: None.
WEEK 2 RECAP: I finished 8-7-1, -$80 in Week 2. I lost both of my five-unit picks, so it’s kind of remarkable that I was down “only” 0.8 units. I don’t mind the Houston loss – I think the Texans cover more often than not versus Blaine Gabbert and an injury-ravaged offensive line – but Patriots -1 was a truly awful pick. I talked repeatedly about the Patriots pacing themselves in September, yet, for some reason, I assumed they’d go all out to defeat the Jaguars, who would undoubtedly be more hyped for that game than New England. I wrote Sunday night in the Cowboys-Giants capsule that I won’t make a dumb mistake like that again this year, and I stand by it.
My Week 3 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.
NEW YORK OFFENSE: If you’re wondering why the Browns are suddenly way more competitive this year, there are a number of reasons. One of the primary ones happens to be the defensive line, which has been ferocious. Myles Garrett is playing out of his mind, and he’s going to eat Jets left tackle Kelvin Beachum for lunch, making rookie Sam Darnold’s day extremely difficult.
The heat the Browns will be able to generate will rattle Darnold, who already had a difficult matchup against the Cleveland secondary. First-round rookie Denzel Ward has been terrific thus far, while second-year safety Jabrill Peppers is performing much better than he did in his dreadful rookie campaign. Ward should be able to take away Robby Anderson, but Quincy Enunwa at least has a positive matchup in the slot.
If there’s one weakness in the Cleveland defense, it’s at linebacker, so Bilal Powell could have more opportunities. Powell scored on a long reception last week, and he could find similar success. Meanwhile, Isaiah Crowell will be looking to get revenge on his former team, but that could be difficult, given how good the Browns’ defensive line is.
CLEVELAND OFFENSE: I’d say stability at quarterback is another major reason why the Browns have been more competitive. Tyrod Taylor certainly isn’t great, but he’s at least a professional, unlike DeShone Kizer, Cody Kessler, Kevin Hogan and all of the other miserable signal-callers Cleveland has possessed over the years. Taylor is often too conservative, but he can scramble and avoid mistakes. That said, he was guilty of a costly error in New Orleans, throwing an interception with the lead in the fourth quarter to set up the Saints’ go-ahead touchdown.
Taylor will look to rebound against the Jets, who have a solid secondary. New York possesses two decent cornerbacks in Morris Claiborne and Trumaine Johnson to shut down Taylor’s outside options, but Jarvis Landry should be able to beat Buster Skrine in the slot. In two games versus the Jets last year as a member of the Dolphins, Landry caught a combined 13 passes for 139 yards and a touchdown.
The Browns will need Landry to dominate because they won’t be able to run the ball against the Jets’ stalwart front. Duke Johnson could also have a tough time as a receiver with the vastly improved Darron Lee patrolling the middle of the field.
RECAP: Can you believe that the Browns, who haven’t won a game in more than 600 days, are favored by a full field goal over a team with a victory? What is happening!? People are apparently impressed with how the Browns, umm, came close to winning so far.
I think this is too much of an overreaction to what happened in Week 2. Prior to this past weekend, the Browns were -1.5 on the Westgate advance spread. It’s moved about two points (factoring in the juice) because the Jets were caught looking ahead to this game and the Browns nearly defeated a New Orleans squad that is always miserable to open the season. We’re getting good value with the Jets.
The Browns need to learn how to win before being expected to prevail like this. I feel like people who bet the Browns will experience what Cleveland fans often go through: disappointment.
This all sounds like I’m going to bet against the Browns, but I have an issue with the Jets as well. The geniuses who created the NFL schedule have made it so the Jets are playing their third game in 11 days, which is absolutely taxing. I looked it up, and teams in that situation since 1989 are 3-8 against the spread. This wouldn’t be an issue if the NFL didn’t have these stupid Thursday night games, but Roger Goodell needs to drive in the revenue to create more public service announcements where he declares how much he pretends to care about player safety.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still don’t understand why people are betting on a favorite that’s 1-32-1 over the past 34 games. I guess the argument is that the Browns nearly beat the Saints, but if you watch the game, you’d see that New Orleans easily could’ve been up 17-0 at halftime. Unfortunately, the Jets are in a very tough scheduling spot. I suppose that’s why the Jets aren’t getting sharp action.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I had a good laugh when I read a writer compare Hue Jackson to the Washington Generals’ coach, where he finds a way to lose no matter what. This is the coach of the Browns, whom are being picked to cover by about two-thirds of the public. I think the Jets are the right side, and I’d probably bet them for a unit or two if they weren’t exhausted from playing their third game in 11 days, which is just absurd.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
The public is betting on the Browns as favorites! What has this world come to!?
The Trends. Edge: Jets.
Week 3 NFL Pick: Jets 20, Browns 17
Jets +3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 39 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Browns 21, Jets 17
Indianapolis Colts (1-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)
Line: Eagles by 6.5. Total: 45.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Eagles -9.
Sunday, Sept 23, 1:00 PM
The Game. Edge: Eagles.
My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have three overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!
PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Carson Wentz is back! He’s been cleared for contact, and he’ll be under center come Sunday. Remarkably, he’ll be making his return a bit less than 10 months following his torn knee.
So, will Wentz energize the Eagles and lead them to a blowout victory? The way people are betting this game, you’d expect that to be the case, but I’m not so sure. Wentz’s injury had a time table of 12 months, so I have doubts that he’s going to be 100 percent. It might take him a couple of games to get back into the flow of things. He could also be hesitant to scramble. The good news is that Wentz will have one of the top offensive lines in the NFL protecting him. The Colts were able to generate a decent pass rush against the Redskins, but I’d be surprised if that’ll be a repeat performance this Sunday.
There is bad news for Wentz, however, as the Eagles have limited receiving options. Alshon Jeffery and Mike Wallace are out, so Wentz will have to rely on a bunch of scrubs beyond Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor. Ertz looked like he was going to have a great matchup against the Colts entering the season, but linebacker Darius Leonard has been tremendous to start the year. He’s one of the favorites for Defensive Rookie of the Year, as he was all over the field in the victory over Washington.
INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Eagles have one of the best front sevens in the NFL, but their secondary has been pitiful thus far. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones torched them in between the 20s in the opener, which wasn’t too surprising, but then Ryan Fitzpatrick scorched them this past weekend. The Eagles missed plenty of tackles, which is not a surprise, given the high levels of complacency I saw from them in the preseason. They were motivated to prove the doubters wrong in the opener, but relapsed last week. I’m not sure if one loss will make them snap out of it, given that the Eagles are still heavy favorites.
If the Eagles aren’t prepared for Andrew Luck, he’ll dissect them with ease. He has gotten better each week since his debut in the preseason, and if Fitzpatrick could rip them apart, Luck will be able to do that as well. Philadelphia’s missed tackles on T.Y. Hilton will prove to be costly.
Putting heavy pressure on Luck will be very important, and that will be possible because of how talented the Eagles’ defensive line is. What’ll help is if left tackle Anthony Castonzo is out again. It looked like Castonzo was going to play last week when he practiced Thursday, but he was ruled out the following day. There’s a better chance Castonzo returns this week, which would be enormous for the Colts.
RECAP: This is a curious point spread, as the Eagles are favored by as much against the Colts as the Redskins were in Week 2. Are the sportsbooks telling us that Philadelphia and Washington are even? The public obviously disagrees because they’re betting the Eagles heavily, as perhaps they’re excited that Wentz is back.
As mentioned, however, I don’t expect Wentz to be 100 percent. Not yet. I think he’ll be rusty against an improved Indianapolis defense. With an injury-ravaged receiving corps, it could be difficult for Wentz to put together consistent drives, which makes covering -6 or -6.5 a tall task. Meanwhile, the improving Luck will have an opportunity to get within the number even if the deficit gets to double digits; Luck is 12-6 against the spread as an underdog of 3.5 or more points for a reason.
I’m going to be on the Colts once again, and I’m taking them for three units. Luck has a tremendous track record of covering high spreads like these, and Wentz isn’t fully back to form yet. Plus, the Eagles’ post-Super Bowl hangover could rear its ugly head again.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The public has bet this up to -6.5, but the sharps haven’t jumped on the Colts yet. Perhaps they’re hoping the line moves up to +7. I’ll be watching closely, and I’ll lock that spread in if it does hit +7.
SATURDAY NOTES: I was hoping Anthony Castonzo would play, but he’s out. The Colts will also be missing Jack Doyle and Marlon Mack, while the Eagles will be without Jay Ajayi. Jason Peters, meanwhile, is questionable, but it sounds like he’ll suit up. This line is creeping up to +7, but I’m actually going to drop this to two units. I’ve been reading the practice reports, and Carson Wentz, by all accounts, has looked sharp. He could be rusty and reluctant to run, but he could also be lethal in his first game back because of his great work ethic and pure talent.
FINAL THOUGHTS: This line crept up to +7, but the sharps jumped on the Colts this morning. Pinnacle’s line is even -6 -101, as they want as much action on the Eagles as possible. I’m still going to have two units on the Colts. The spread is +6.5 in most books. If you can somehow find +7 -120, that’s slightly better than +6 -110 (by about 0.4%). It was +7 -120 at Bovada at around 11:25, but that number is gone.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: Colts.
Week 3 NFL Pick: Eagles 24, Colts 21
Colts +6.5 (2 Units) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$200
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 20, Colts 16
Cincinnati Bengals (2-0) at Carolina Panthers (1-1)
Line: Panthers by 3. Total: 44.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Panthers -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -3.5.
Sunday, Sept 23, 1:00 PM
The Game. Edge: Panthers.
VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot.
The highest-bet sides were 43-40-4 last season, a year that was pretty painful for the books. Perhaps the pendulum will swing the other way…
Here were the teams getting the most bets last week:
Just a middling 3-2 again, bringing the overall record to 5-4. Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:
Nothing here surprises me, as the public is just overreacting to what it saw last weekend.
CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals have been explosive offensively to start the season. Andy Dalton, Joe Mixon and A.J. Green all were productive against the Colts, then Dalton and Green connected for three touchdowns in the opening half versus Baltimore. Everyone was impressed with what they saw in that Thursday night victory, but the outcome was deceiving. The Ravens lost their best defensive player, C.J. Mosley, on the opening defensive drive when he was carted off the field. The Ravens appeared to be deflated without their defensive leader, and they were discombobulated without the heart and soul of their stop unit. If you noticed, Baltimore’s energy picked up in the second half once the players heard the news that there was no structural damage.
Unless Luke Kuechly leaves the game with an injury, the Bengals are going to have a more difficult time moving the chains this week. Running the ball will be incredibly taxing, as the Panthers have one of the best front sevens in the NFL. Their defensive line should be able to overwhelm the Bengals’ offensive line as well. Cincinnati made a couple of improvements to the blocking during the offseason, but it hasn’t faced a strong pass rush yet this season, so this will be a nice test.
That said, the Bengals will still be productive with what they do best: having Dalton air it out to Green. While Carolina’s front seven is tremendous, the secondary is pretty poor. The Panthers lack anyone who can slow down Green, so he should have another big game.
CAROLINA OFFENSE: Speaking earlier about teams missing their stud linebacker, the Bengals will be without theirs for another two games. Vontaze Burfict continues to serve his suspension, as he’s due back in Week 5. Burfict’s absence will have a huge impact in this game.
The Bengals have gotten lucky in that they haven’t battled teams with dynamic receiving backs without Burfict yet. The Colts had Nyheim Hines, while the Ravens used Buck Allen. Those two aren’t exactly intimidating. Conversely, Christian McCaffrey certainly is. The Panthers will create numerous big plays by getting McCaffrey in space. Cam Newton will also have some successful scrambles. Burfict’s absence will really be felt for the first time.
That said, the Bengals have some advantages on this side of the ball, particularly in the trenches. Carolina’s offensive line is in shambles, which will be problematic against Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap. Newton will constantly be under siege, which makes his ability to scramble very crucial.
RECAP: The Westgate advance spread was Panthers -4 last weekend, yet it dropped to -3 +100 because of a week’s worth of results. The Bengals impressed on national TV, while the Panthers lost in part because they were distracted by Hurricane Florence, so here we are.
I like the Panthers quite a bit, as I’ve been wavering between three and four units. I love the line value we’re getting – remember, three is a crucial number in the NFL – and I believe the Panthers will be able to fully exploit Burfict’s absence. I also believe Carolina is the better team if Burfict is missing. The Bengals, meanwhile, could be “sniffing themselves” – as Kenny from the WF Podcast likes to say – following a statement win on national television.
This all sets up well for the Panthers, whom I’m going to pencil in for three units. If there’s positive injury news, or if this line drops to -2.5 -110, I’ll probably increase the unit count to four.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds as if the Panthers will be down a guard again, while cornerback Donte Jackson could be out. I still like them a lot though, as the Bengals have injury issues themselves. I’m actually going to lock this in now. If this drops to -2.5 -110, so be it, but I’m more worried of losing -3 +100, which is available at Bovada, BetUS and Bookmaker.
SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams are missing key players. Nothing’s changed for me, and I still like the Panthers, which is a good thing because I’ve locked this in already.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I wasn’t punished for locking in -3 +100, as this spread is mostly -3 -105, though -2.5 -115 at BetUS, which is better than -3 +100.
The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.
The Bengals are coming off a big statement win on national TV.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
Week 3 NFL Pick: Panthers 23, Bengals 17
Panthers -3 +100 (3 Units) – Bovada — Correct; +$300
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Panthers 31, Bengals 21
Tennessee Titans (1-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-0)
Line: Jaguars by 10.5. Total: 39.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: No Line (Mariota).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Jaguars -12.5.
Sunday, Sept 23, 1:00 PM
The Game. Edge: Jaguars.
HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. Hate mailers are now beginning to blatantly lying about my wins:
This is about my Week 1 picks, which were pretty successful (this was submitted prior to the Raiders loss), so I have no idea what this lunatic is talking about. What push? Does he think the tie in the Steelers-Browns game means I didn’t hit my Cleveland +6 pick?
Here’s a weird one:
I honestly can’t tell if this is meant to be insulting or complimentary. He’s giving me props, yet bashing me. It’s like he can’t make up his mind.
Speaking of weird haters:
I’m honestly taken aback by this. I heard there might be a thing called a… umm… Rams fan… but I just assumed that they lived on a different plane of existence with unicorns, dragons and Antifa protestors who shower.
Meanwhile, this hater wants to pay me:
What is up with these bipolar haters? They insult me, but they also either compliment me or request to send me payment. I think someone needs to call the mental hospital and have these people committed.
TENNESSEE OFFENSE: This is the only game this week without a point spread because Marcus Mariota’s status is unknown. Head coach Mike Vrabel said that Mariota’s condition hasn’t changed, but after Vrabel said “both quarterbacks will play,” it’s difficult to trust him. He could say the sun rises in the east, and I don’t know if I’d believe him at this point.
There’s obviously a huge difference between a healthy Mariota and Bland Gabbert, so the books will keep this spread off the board as long as possible unless they hear deterministic news. Gabbert was pretty putrid last week, throwing three good passes the entire afternoon. Everything else was short and inaccurate, and he’ll be matched up against an even better defense this week. There’s no point in delving into how excellent Jacksonville’s stop unit is, though I will say that the Jaguars could challenge the Rams as a team that could keep their opposition from crossing midfield until the penultimate play of the game if Gabbert is under center.
Mariota, conversely, will generate some positive drives, especially when he uses his legs. He’ll have to scramble often if his two tackles are out again, however. I find it truly amazing that Tennessee prevailed against Houston without the services of Taylor Lewan and Jack Conklin.
JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Speaking of teams missing key players, the Jaguars beat the Patriots without Leonard Fournette, which was remarkable as well. Blake Bortles was tremendous, shredding New England’s defense as if he were the second coming of Joe Montana. His quick receivers and running backs proved to be too speedy for the Patriots, who were undoubtedly choking in the humid, 100-degree Jacksonville environment.
The Titans have a better secondary than the Patriots do. They surrendered some big plays to DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller last week, but they’ll be tasked with defending a different offense this Sunday. Bortles will find it more difficult to sustain drives, especially with Brian Orakpo bearing down on him on the blind side. Jacksonville lost left tackle Cam Robinson, and replacement Josh Wells was beaten often in relief.
Fortunately for the Jaguars, they should have Fournette back in action to ease some pressure off Bortles. Running against the Titans is difficult – Jurrell Casey should be able to dominate the trenches – but Fournette’s mere presence in the backfield will make the Titans really respect the run.
RECAP: There’s no spread posted on this game, so I can’t give you a concrete pick yet. I promise to be on Jacksonville if Gabbert starts, and that might be a multi-unit wager depending on what the spread is. I’ll probably be on the Jaguars if Mariota plays as well, given that there’s no guarantee that Mariota will be fully healthy. Word is that he was struggling to grip the ball in practice last week, and that sounds like trouble against Jacksonville’s ferocious defense.
I’ll have my pick posted when a line is released. Check back, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s no line available yet. Head coach Mike Vrabel said that Marcus Mariota can’t make all the throws yet, which makes me think I’ll almost certainly be on the Jaguars no matter what the line is.
SATURDAY NOTES: No line yet. We’ll know Marcus Mariota’s status in the morning.
LINE POSTED: Adam Schefter is reporting that the Titans will start Blaine Gabbert. This makes me want to bet the Jaguars for 3-4 units. I debated between the two unit counts, and I settled on three because the Jaguars are coming off such a big win versus New England. Still, beating Gabbert should be easy. Another decision is -10 -110 or -10.5 +100, available at 5Dimes. I did the math, and -10.5 +100 is more profitable by 0.51 percent. I’ll go with that for three units, and I’ll lock it in before people start betting Jacksonville.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I really thought this line would shoot up in the wake of the Blaine Gabbert. It’s been stagnant instead. Most books have -10 -110 listed, though -10.5 +100 is still marginally better. Leonard Fournette is out, but that shouldn’t really matter.
The Psychology. Edge: Titans.
The Jaguars could be flat off their win versus the Patriots.
The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
No surprise here.
The Trends. Edge: Titans.
Week 3 NFL Pick: Jaguars 23, Titans 10
Jaguars -10.5 +100 (3 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$300
Under 39 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Titans 9, Jaguars 6
New Orleans Saints (1-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-1)
Line: Falcons by 3. Total: 53.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Falcons -1.
Sunday, Sept 23, 1:00 PM
The Game. Edge: Saints.
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NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Both scoring units figure to be potent in this game, but the Saints might have the biggest edge of the two teams, which would be Alvin Kamara versus the Atlanta linebackers. The Falcons lost All-Pro linebacker Deion Jones to a season-ending injury, which is an enormous loss. The Panthers couldn’t turn that into a victory last week because they were distracted by the hurricane, but we saw evidence of the Falcons’ defense being downgraded without Jones, as Christian McCaffrey had a big game as a receiver out of the backfield, catching a ridiculous 14 passes for 102 yards.
If McCaffrey was able to accomplish that, imagine what Alvin Kamara will do. The Falcons won’t have an answer for Kamara, which should open up other options for Drew Brees. The Falcons didn’t really have to worry about Carolina’s other receivers this past Sunday, but dealing with Michael Thomas and Ted Ginn will be problematic, especially without Keanu Neal.
The Saints were slowed down a bit last week by Cleveland’s dynamic defensive line, as Myles Garrett made Brees’ afternoon very difficult. The Falcons don’t have a stellar edge rusher like that, so Brees will have more success in this game.
ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Saints’ cornerbacks were absolutely torched in the opener by Ryan Fitzpatrick. Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley looked helpless as Fitzpatrick constantly picked them apart. Lattimore played better last week, but the downgrade from Tampa’s offense to Cleveland’s should be factored in. Antonio Callaway is a flashy and all, but he doesn’t compare favorably at all to Mike Evans, and the same thing can obviously be said pertaining to Julio Jones.
The Falcons will be able to move the chains in between the 20s, but the real question is which red-zone offense will show up this Sunday. Atlanta was pathetic in the red zone in the opener, but was much better versus Carolina. Even though the Saints have struggled on this side of the ball this year, I believe the Falcons’ red-zone woes will resurface. The Panthers didn’t seem like they were in the right frame of mind last week because of Hurricane Florence, so New Orleans will have a much better game plan. The Saints will also be able to pressure Matt Ryan a bit; rookie defensive end Marcus Davenport has been as great as advertised, and he and Cameron Jordan will create havoc in opposing backfields going forward.
Meanwhile, Devonta Freeman will be out of the lineup again. Tevin Coleman will start instead, and while Coleman and Freeman are similar runners, the Falcons will miss what Freeman can do in space as a receiver out of the backfield. Coleman could struggle to run, as the Saints have been decent versus ground attacks thus far; they limited Carlos Hyde to 2.7 yards per carry last weekend.
RECAP: This spread says the Saints and Falcons are even, but I don’t believe that to be the case, especially with Deion Jones out of the lineup. New Orleans is superior, and I love getting points with Brees. Throughout his career, Brees is 51-32 against the spread as an underdog, which makes sense because of how great of a signal-caller he’s been over the years.
The Westgate advance spread was Atlanta -2.5, yet the line has moved to three based on one week’s worth of results. The Saints nearly lost to the Browns, while the Falcons led the Panthers by double digits for most of the second half. That’s why this spread has become three (with -120 juice on the host, to boot), and that makes sense to casual bettors, based on the public action. However, New Orleans habitually gets off to slow starts, and it’s usually Week 3 when the team finally gets things in gear. Remember last year when the Saints were throttled in the first two weeks, then destroyed the Panthers in Carolina. The Falcons, meanwhile, took advantage of a distracted opponent this past Sunday. I believe things will seem much different after the result of this game, and I’m willing to bet three units on it.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp money on the Saints, though not a lot of it. These games are almost always close, as Atlanta has few victories of more than three over the Saints at home. This could end up being a push, but I think New Orleans wins outright. I’m hoping for a +3 -105 line, but I’m not sure if we’ll get it.
LOCKED IN: The sharps have pounded the Saints into the ground. Almost all the reasonable +3 numbers are gone, though +3 -115 is still available at BetUS. I am going to lock that in for three units.
SATURDAY NOTES: The Falcons won’t have Takk McKinley, so Drew Brees will have more time in the pocket than he did last week. New Orleans should be able to win this game. The sharps have pounded the Saints past +3 and down to +1.5.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have brought this down to +1.5. I hope you were able to get +3 earlier in the week. Saints at +1.5 isn’t nearly as exciting.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: Saints.
Week 3 NFL Pick: Saints 30, Falcons 24
Saints +3 -115 (3 Units) – BetUS — Correct; +$300
Over 53.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 43, Falcons 37
Denver Broncos (2-0) at Baltimore Ravens (1-1)
Line: Ravens by 6. Total: 46.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Ravens -3.
Sunday, Sept 23, 1:00 PM
The Game. Edge: Broncos.
I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.
Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:
1. I can’t believe how awful that Clay Matthews roughing-the-passer penalty was. Matthews literally motioned his arm so he specifically wouldn’t put full force on Kirk Cousins. The Packers were screwed out of a victory because the officials thought it would be best if they decided the game with a ticky-tack penalty, which is just appalling.
Hearing what Matthews said after the game was depressing. He said that the team would submit it as a complaint, yet the NFL wouldn’t do anything because they always side with the officials, and he’s right. Roger Goodell will have one of his stooges say that the penalty was absolutely justified, when we all know that it wasn’t.
The NFL is correct to protect its quarterbacks, but it has gone way too far with this. Determining if someone falls on a quarterback with full body weight is so subjective that almost every single hit on the quarterback can be flagged. Sometimes it’s obvious, but we’ve had two instances in as many weeks where a team was screwed because of a bogus penalty like this, with Myles Garrett being penalized for hitting Ben Roethlisberger being the other. The Browns may have won if it wasn’t for that – Pittsburgh scored on the next play – and the Packers certainly would’ve prevailed.
To me, it feels like there shouldn’t be an ambiguous rule that can ruin a team’s chances of winning if called incorrectly. That just seems wrong, but I imagine Goodell has one of his stooges typing up a press release on how I happen to be incorrect about this as well. I guess the point I’m trying to make here is that Goodell has too many damn stooges.
(Update: After I wrote this, some NFL Network guy had a bogus report about how the NFL is going to release a stupid video about some sort of scoop and pull, which sounds like absolute bulls**t to me.)
2. I have to show you something appalling. And no, I’m not referring to this woman’s stomach:
If you play fantasy football on NFL.com, you might recognize this. Whenever you try to see your live scoring on NFL.com’s fantasy application, a video plays over everything, and you can’t even X out of it. You just have to sit through the video, and it’s very intrusive, no matter how many women’s stomachs you get to see.
Look, I know I normally shouldn’t be one to talk about ads, since my Web site has a lot of them, but unless you’re an iPhone user clicking through Facebook, I don’t think the ads are too horrible. I certainly don’t prevent you from seeing a page because of a take-over video.
I’m going to talk to Charlie Campbell – our league commissioner – about moving to ESPN next year unless NFL.com stops this nonsense. I wouldn’t mind a video playing in the corner, but a video that takes over the entire screen is unacceptable.
3. Allow me a minute to vent about Bill Simmons. For those of you who don’t know who Simmons is, he used to be an ESPN writer. He was fired because he criticized Roger Goodell too often and was too political. He went to work for HBO and had a half-hour show that was canceled quickly. I used to be a huge fan of Simmons, and I can say that he’s one of the few people who influenced me while I was in high school and college to become a sports writer. I used to read all of his columns and listen to all of his podcasts. I’ll say I haven’t done the latter as much lately because he’s gotten too political, but I continue to enjoy his guess-the-lines episodes with Cousin Sal.
However, I was completely aghast when I heard Simmons say something during last week’s guess-the-line show. Cousin Sal asked him if he was in the Supercontest this year, and here’s what Simmons said (I’m paraphrasing:)
“I’m out. After all I did for them, they won’t let me enter without going to Vegas? Are you kidding me? They think I need to show up to Vegas to enter? I should be able to enter from home. After all I’ve done for them, they won’t let me do this? I’m out.”
If you don’t know, you must enter the Supercontest by going to Las Vegas and signing up at the Westgate casino. You can have a proxy enter picks for you, but you actually must be there to sign up. That’s the rule. That’s why I fly to Vegas from Philly every July. I go to the Westgate, meet my proxy, then we sign up, and I e-mail him my picks every Friday during the season. It’s an easy process, and I get a vacation out of it.
My flight from Philly to Vegas is five hours, so I’m stuck on a plane 10 combined hours throughout the trip. If you’ve never been on a plane before, it sucks, and two 5-hour trips are exhausting. But I do it because I want to enter the Supercontest and spend a week in Vegas.
Simmons, however, lives in Los Angeles, so he doesn’t have to travel very far. I just went to Expedia and looked it up: A flight from LAX to Vegas is an hour and 12 minutes. That’s it. Four of those flights equal one of mine! And yet, I’ve never whined and complained about having to travel to Vegas to enter. Granted, I never popularized it like Simmons did, but even if I had – I’ve gotten a few people to enter – I would never be so self-entitled to demand that people running the contest bend the rules for me, and my trip is four times as long as his is! Just make the damn 72-minute flight, Bill!
Regrettably, none of this is surprising. Simmons used to seem like such a cool guy, but he’s changed ever since he moved to L.A. He’s become an out-of-touch West Coast elitist who hangs out with celebrities, who are generally horrible people (which is why they virtue signal, so people won’t notice.) Now, he’s one of them, and it sucks. I used to look up to him, but now I’m appalled by his behavior.
DENVER OFFENSE: I was at a house-warming party Saturday, and several people I spoke to there bet the Ravens on Thursday night. They were shocked by how bad Baltimore’s defense was in the opening half, and I imagine many people shared their sentiment. What most people don’t realize was how profound the impact of C.J. Mosley’s absence was. Mosley is the heart and soul of the Ravens’ stop unit, so not having him on the field really hurt the defense.
Mosley’s availability will be crucial in determining the winner of this game. Early reports indicate that the Ravens are preparing as if they won’t have Mosley on the field, which has to be music to the Broncos’ ears. Case Keenum will have success throwing to the tight ends, while Phillip Lindsay will continue to create big plays. The undrafted rookie runner has been terrific through two games, and I expect his role to continue to grow. Baltimore’s linebacking corps is anemic without Mosley, and I believe Lindsay will have a huge game as a result.
Meanwhile, the Ravens don’t have that dynamic of a pass rush, so Keenum will have time to find his receivers. Demaryius Thomas will need to stop dropping passes, though Emmanuel Sanders should have a strong performance once again. Baltimore doesn’t cover the slot very well, which works out favorably for Keenum and Sanders, because, as we all know, Keenum loves throwing to his slot receivers.
BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Broncos couldn’t stop Derek Carr last week, but based on their energy level, this wasn’t too much of a surprise. Denver seemed very lethargic and disorganized, as the team had to waste a timeout on the opening drive because it didn’t have the proper personnel in place. Carr, as a result, was able to complete all but three of his passes.
It seemed to me that the Broncos saw the Raiders struggle on national TV and just assumed they’d have an easy time. I expect a much better performance out of their defense this week. Von Miller and Bradley Chubb both have favorable matchups and figure to pressure Joe Flacco heavily. Miller has been tremendous thus far, and right tackle James Hurst doesn’t have a chance of blocking him.
The Broncos have an excellent defense overall, but they have a weakness to tight ends and pass-catching running backs because of their mediocre linebacking corps. I don’t believe the Ravens really have the personnel to take advantage of that – at least not until rookie Hayden Hurst returns from injury. Meanwhile, Buck Allen is a mediocre player. Allen is eating into way much of Alex Collins’ workload, which really doesn’t make much sense.
RECAP: I was hoping to get +6 with the Broncos, but I’d say +5 is good enough. These teams are about even if Mosley is out of the lineup again, so this spread is a couple of points too high. The Broncos played sluggishly last week, but I expect them to put forth a much better effort in Baltimore. I like them for two units, and I’ll think about increasing it to three if a +6 spread appears.
Conversely, I won’t be betting this game if it’s announced that Mosley will be available. Don’t scoff at my decision-making based on one player; the do-it-all linebacker is so important in today’s NFL with teams practicing less, and Mosley is one of the top players at his position in the NFL. Baltimore’s defense is so much worse without Mosley; it reminds me of the Steelers missing Ryan Shazier. Pittsburgh has covered the spread only once since losing Shazier last year! The sportsbooks don’t make proper adjustments to teams losing their do-it-all linebackers, and that’s what the case is here, as Baltimore should’ve been downgraded to -3 without Mosley.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: C.J. Mosley hasn’t practiced yet. That’s a good sign for the Broncos. No sharp money has come in on either side yet. Perhaps they’re waiting on Mosley’s status as well.
SATURDAY NOTES: C.J. Mosley got in one practice this week. He was limited Thursday, then sat out Friday. He’s listed as questionable, so he could play, but it’s sounding like he’ll be unavailable. I still may change this unit count come Sunday, depending on Mosley’s availability. He’s that important to Baltimore.
FINAL THOUGHTS: C.J. Mosley is out! The line movement on this game has been interesting. It looked like the sharps were on the Ravens, as this spread moved to -6, but that was really phantom action. The sharps pounded Denver at +6 in the wake of the Mosley news. Mosley being out fundamentally changes Baltimore’s defense. I’m going to bump this up to three units. The +6 -110 lines are gone, but +6 -115 is available at both BetUS and Bovada. That’s better than +5.5 -110 because +6 has become a greater key number in the wake of the new overtime rules.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
Week 3 NFL Pick: Ravens 24, Broncos 23
Broncos +6 -115 (3 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$345
Over 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Ravens 27, Broncos 14
New York Giants (0-2) at Houston Texans (0-2)
Line: Texans by 6. Total: 43.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Texans -6.5.
Sunday, Sept 23, 1:00 PM
The Game. Edge: Texans.
As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.
Random College Football Notes:
1. I don’t know if it was my hangover Saturday morning, but I heard the weirdest thing during the Oklahoma-Iowa State game. The Cyclones scored a touchdown to open the second half to trim the margin to 24-17. Going into commercial, a computerized voice began speaking…
“The Cyclones have scored quickly to open the second half, and it’s now a one-score game. Can they stop the Sooners and get a chance to tie? Find out right after this!”
It was the same voice you hear in the other promos, and it was just weird. It’s as if ESPN had a robot set up to speak, and someone just filled in the blanks for what the voice had to say. I didn’t like it one bit, as it’s further evidence that artificial intelligence will destroy us all one day.
2. Speaking of technological advances, I’ve seen something strange on the sidelines recently: digital down markers. Yes, the numbers you see to signify what down it is were digital in one game. I know, crazy, right?
I actually saw this in the first college football game I watched this year. I can’t remember what game it was – damn hangover – but the down markers were definitely digital. I was going to remark at how football had finally entered the 21st century, but all of the down markers I’ve seen since haven’t been digital.
What the hell is up with that? Were the digitial down markers an experiment? Is the NCAA going to needlessly review this after the season to determine if this should be installed permanently? If so, what will happen to the non-digital markers? Will they be destroyed or given to charity? And why aren’t there chips in balls yet so we don’t need any of this at all?
3. Last week, I pointed out that CBS’ Gary Danielson gave us an Emmitt-ism when he said, “He was collisioned.” Now, someone gave us a pair of Millen-isms:
“Jeffery Simmons was out getting a blow.”
Then…
“He’s on the sidelines, relaxing and getting a blow.”
And if that’s not bad enough…
“He was c**ing hard while getting a blow.”
OK, maybe I made that last one up.
HOUSTON OFFENSE: It’s truly remarkable how poorly coached the Texans are. In the first 10 minutes of last week’s game, they had two holding penalties, an offside infraction, a missed field goal and a surrendered touchdown on a fake punt. Bill O’Brien was completely clueless and had no idea how to turn things around. He’s the worst head coach in the NFL right now, and while I normally don’t advocate firing a head coach during the season because there usually isn’t a point to make a hasty move, I would can him immediately before he does more damage to Deshaun Watson’s career.
Watson has regressed horribly under O’Brien. Watson was great in several games last year, but he looks lost right now. He would make several great throws versus the Titans, but constantly follow it up with an egregious blunder. I have no idea what he was thinking when he lofted a helpless pass to DeAndre Hopkins in double coverage when he was in field goal range at one point. That ended up costing the Texans the game.
The Titans have a tough defense, so things will get a bit easier for Watson in this game. The Giants possess two talented cornerbacks, a ball-hawking safety in Landon Collins and a tremendous nose tackle, but that’s about it. They’re very top-heavy on this side of the ball, as they have no other strong starters unless Olivier Vernon returns from injury. Vernon’s presence will actually be important because of Houston’s inept offensive line. The Giants will be able to place immense pressure on Watson if Vernon is on the field, but that won’t be the case otherwise.
At any rate, I like Hopkins and Will Fuller in this matchup despite the Giants owning two talented corners. They haven’t exactly been tested yet this year, so I’m eager to find out how Eli Apple fares against either Hopkins or Fuller. My guess is that the Houston wideouts win that matchup, so it’s a matter of how much time in the pocket Watson has to find them downfield, and whether or not he fumbles another snap.
NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants can certainly sympathize with the Texans’ offensive line woes because they have blocking problems of their own. Their issues have gotten even worse in the wake of center Jon Halapio’s season-ending injury. Houston, at least on paper, should be able to dominate in the trenches.
Of course, this was the case last week, and the Texans were pushed around by the Titans and their third-string tackles. I have no idea what happened to Whitney Mercilus, but it looked like he was taking a nap during the game. He was a complete no-show, which was disappointing, considering his matchup against a practice squad player. Mercilus will get a chance to redeem himself against the struggling Ereck Flowers.
If Eli Manning has the slightest bit of time in the pocket, he might be able to connect with Odell Beckham Jr. for some big gains if his throws get there. The Texans have pitiful cornerbacks who don’t stand a chance against Beckham, or Sterling Shepard for that matter. Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley will have a big game if Houston’s shoddy tackling continues to rear its ugly head.
RECAP: There’s no way you’re going to get me to lay six points with a team as poorly coached as the Texans. I’m not saying that they can’t win this game by a touchdown or more, but I think it’s more likely that O’Brien will find a way to goof things up somehow. It amazes me how incompetent he is, but I’ve already ranted about him.
Conversely, the Giants are awful, so there’s no way I’m betting them without getting tremendous spread value. I don’t think +6 qualifies. I will take them for picking pool purposes, however.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Eli Apple could be out, which is a big deal because of how talented Houston’s receivers are. I don’t know if that would get me to change my pick, however, as the thought of laying six points with the worst-coached team in the NFL isn’t very appealing.
SATURDAY NOTES: The Giants will be missing Olivier Vernon and Eli Apple, while the Texans will have Jadeveon Clowney back from injury. This all sounds good for the Texans, but there’s no guarantee Clowney will be 100 percent. Plus, don’t forget how poorly coached the Texans are. I’m sticking with the Giants, but I’m not betting this nonsense of a game.
FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned, the injuries are in Houston’s favor, but I can’t stomach laying six with Bill O’Brien right now. Then again, the Giants stink as well.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Giants.
I’m surprised there isn’t more action on the Texans considering the Giants’ poor showing Sunday night.
The Trends. Edge: Texans.
Week 3 NFL Pick: Texans 20, Giants 17
Giants +6 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Giants 27, Texans 22
Oakland Raiders (0-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-0)
Line: Dolphins by 3. Total: 45.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Dolphins -3.5.
Sunday, Sept 23, 1:00 PM
The Game. Edge: Dolphins.
If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.
I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Aaron Hernandez, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have brand new Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week!
MIAMI OFFENSE: The Raiders have held leads in their past two halftimes, only to blow their advantages following intermission. A major reason for this has been their pass rush, which has been absolutely gassed at the end of games. Khalil Mack would obviously help matters right now, but he’s not walking through the tunnel anytime soon. If the Raiders’ pass-rushers were exhausted at the end of the Rams and Broncos losses, what’s going to happen in this contest? It’s going to be 88 degrees, sunny and humid in Miami, so the Raiders are going to wilt under the tropical Florida sun.
This has to be music to Ryan Tannehill’s ears because his offensive line suffered a decline in the wake of Josh Sitton’s season-ending injury. This will be impactful down the road, but not in this contest because the Raiders can’t get to the quarterback. They can’t cover either, thanks to some atrocious safety play, so Tannehill should be able to hit Kenny Stills for some deep passes.
The Raiders aren’t as bad against the run as they are versus the pass, but defending Kenyan Drake figures to be a problem as well. Actually, anything the Dolphins do will probably lead to points being scored.
OAKLAND OFFENSE: Derek Carr rebounded from a very rough second half versus the Rams to play well at Denver. He threw just three incompletions, and one was a drop by a fullback on fourth down. Carr was very precise, though I can’t exactly say that the Broncos were playing with complete effort. Still, it was a strong performance from Carr, who needed to bounce back.
Carr will have to be on point again because the Dolphins have a dynamic edge rush that will put heavy heat on the Raider quarterback. Miami may have lost Ndamukong Suh this offseason, but it acquired Robert Quinn to join Cameron Wake and William Hayes. All three are playing very well right now, especially Quinn, who has an extremely favorable matchup against struggling rookie left tackle Kolton Miller. Meanwhile, right tackle Donald Penn is a shell of his former self, so he’ll have major issues blocking Wake and Hayes.
The Dolphins have been solid against the run thus far, so I don’t think Marshawn Lynch will have a big game. However, Miami’s weakness is in coverage, so both Jared Cook and Amari Cooper stand to benefit from that, as long as Carr has enough time to locate them.
RECAP: The NFL has done a good job of giving the Florida teams 1 p.m. starts this month. The league shied away from that in recent years, but if the warm-weather teams have to travel north in December, it’s only fair that they reap the benefits of the Florida heat and humidity in September. That’s what Tampa did to the Eagles last week, and the Dolphins stand to benefit similarly versus the Raiders. Miami will be dressed in white, meaning the Raiders, in their black garb, will be cooking in the 90-degree heat.
Making matters worse for the Raiders, they’re playing an early game on the East Coast. That’s another reason they could be sluggish. Now, I don’t know how focused a 2-0 Miami team will be, so this will be a limited wager, but I do think that the Dolphins are the right side.
I’m going to take Miami for a unit. In addition to the factors I just mentioned, we’re getting some line value; the Dolphins were -4 on the advance spread, yet the line has dropped to -3 for some reason.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s no change here. I’m wondering if this line will go to -3.5, as Pinnacle has this listed at -3 -123, and other sportsbooks tend to copy them. The best number I see for Miami is -3 -119 at Bookmaker (also -3 -120 at Bovada).
SATURDAY NOTES: I’m still going with a unit on the Dolphins, and I’m still looking for better juice at -3. That hasn’t shown up yet, unfortunately.
FINAL THOUGHTS: My patience paid off here, as this line is still -3, but at a more reasonable juice. The Dolphins are actually -3 +105 at 5Dimes, which sounds great to me.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: Raiders.
Week 3 NFL Pick: Dolphins 24, Raiders 17
Dolphins -3 +105 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$105
Under 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Dolphins 28, Raiders 20
Green Bay Packers (1-0-1) at Washington Redskins (1-1)
Line: Packers by 3. Total: 45.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: No Line (Rodgers).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Redskins -1.
Sunday, Sept 23, 1:00 PM
The Game. Edge: None.
Video of the Week: Hurricane Florence has claimed some victims and has destroyed tons of property. It’s been horrible. Unfortunately, CNN, I mean the Weather Channel has taken the opportunity to create some fake news:
Wow. Just wow. It’s common knowledge that news channels make things up to boost ratings, but I never imagined the Weather Channel would do this as well.
GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers nearly led the Packers to a victory over the Vikings, but the officials screwed them, calling a bogus penalty on Clay Matthews. Still, Rodgers proved that he can be effective. He made it through 70 minutes against one of the best defenses in the NFL, and while his knee was sore afterward, it didn’t get worse.
That’s the good news. The bad news is that Rodgers didn’t have his trademark mobility. Sure, he scrambled once to pick up a first down, but that was really the only time he scampered downfield with success. Rodgers is clearly not 100 percent. While he’s still better than many other quarterbacks in the NFL at approximately 75-percent capacity, he won’t be as potent until he fully heals. The Redskins will try to capitalize on that, as they have Josh Norman to potentially take away Davante Adams. Meanwhile, linebacker Zach Brown and safety D.J. Swearinger are playing very well, so they should be able to take away Jimmy Graham, which is something the Vikings couldn’t do.
It would help if the Packers could run the ball to take some pressure off Rodgers, but Jamaal Williams has yet another difficult matchup. The Redskins figure to stop the run well thanks to their tremendous defensive line comprised of Jonathan Allen, Matt Ioannidis and Da’Ron Payne. Allen is having an incredible season thus far.
WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Packers spent their first two picks in the 2018 NFL Draft on cornerbacks to improve their secondary, but that didn’t help against the Vikings this past Sunday. Jaire Alexander played well – he was robbed of a game-sealing interception – but the rest of the secondary, aside from Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, is struggling. They looked helpless defending Kirk Cousins late in the afternoon.
Alex Smith doesn’t pose as much of a challenge, but he’ll once again prove to be an efficient quarterback who will pierce through the Green Bay defensive backfield. Some miscues screwed up several possessions for the Redskins last week, but Smith should be able to rebound in a favorable situation.
Adrian Peterson, conversely, has another tough matchup. While the Packers can’t stop the pass, their very forceful against the run, thanks to their terrific defensive line. Muhammad Wilkerson is playing well again, and Mike Daniels and Kenny Clark are dominating like always.
RECAP: I don’t think the Packers deserve to be three-point favorites over a decent team if Rodgers isn’t 100 percent. That’s my hot take on this game. Rodgers being at full capacity would obviously change things, but he’s not himself. He can’t move around well on his knee, and that will play a factor in this game.
That said, Rodgers is still lethal enough to lead the Packers to victory, and I think Green Bay prevailing by exactly three is the most likely result. I’d consider betting the Redskins at +3.5 for a unit or so, but +3 is a non-wager selection for me.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s been impossible for me to find a +3 -110 line. The sharps are on the Redskins. I think they’re the right side, but they’re not that appealing here.
SATURDAY NOTES: Here’s another game where we can’t find good juice on three. If I bet this game, it won’t be for more than a unit, but I’m not wagering on it for now.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been betting the Redskins, as +3 is no longer available at a reasonable juice at most books. Except, BetUS has +3 +100 available, which is the best number I’ve seen all week. That’s a great price, and I think I want to put a unit on Washington.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
I was expecting more money on the Packers.
The Trends. Edge: None.
Week 3 NFL Pick: Packers 23, Redskins 21
Redskins +3 +100 (1 Unit) – BetUS — Correct; +$100
Under 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Redskins 31, Packers 17
Buffalo Bills (0-2) at Minnesota Vikings (1-0-1)
Line: Vikings by 16.5. Total: 41.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -15.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Vikings -15.
Sunday, Sept 23, 1:00 PM
The Game. Edge: Vikings.
Two years ago, on the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts, Tom Brady was elected as the President of the United States, as it was revealed that he was the only candidate running because both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were figments of his imagination. He followed that up by stopping Vladimir Putin from hacking the NFL. In doing so, however, Tom Brady was stuck in an evil dimension, and his evil counterpart has come into our world. No one is aware that Tom Brady is now Evil Tom Brady, which is great for Evil Tom Brady because he can begin devastating the world…
To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!
MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Bills had two first-round picks in the 2018 NFL Draft, and they used their second on linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. You wouldn’t know that Edmunds was a first-rounder based on how he played in last week’s game. Philip Rivers spent the entire afternoon picking on Edmunds, who looked lethargically slow when trying to cover all of the various crossing routes.
The Vikings are a smart team, so I suspect that they’ve picked up on this. I expect Kirk Cousins to emulate Rivers by feeding the ball to Dalvin Cook and Kyle Rudolph, as they blaze by Edmunds like Melvin Gordon and other Chargers did this past weekend. Meanwhile, the Bills lack depth at cornerback beyond Tre’Davious White, so while Stefon Diggs has a difficult matchup, Adam Thielen will easily get open all afternoon.
The one thing the Bills do well on this side of the ball is stop the run, as Gordon was limited to 28 yards on nine carries on Sunday. Cook won’t get much on the ground, but he’ll be a factor as a receiver coming out of the backfield.
BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills can’t block. They surrendered five sacks against the Chargers, and that number would’ve been greater if it weren’t for Josh Allen’s mobility. Also keep in mind that the Chargers weren’t at full strength, thanks to the absences of Joey Bosa and Corey Liuget.
The Vikings, conversely, are at full capacity on this side of the ball, and they’ll make life very difficult for Allen all afternoon. They’ll sack him numerous times, and on the rare occasions in which Allen has time in the pocket, he’ll be baited into throws by Mike Zimmer, who undoubtedly has a masterful game plan cooked up for the rookie.
Making matters worse for the Bills, LeSean McCoy is dealing with a cracked rib cage. He may not play in this game, and if that’s the case, the Bills will be completely devoid of play-makers. Even if McCoy suits up, he may not be 100 percent.
RECAP: If you believe this spread is too high, think again. The previous seven NFL teams that were favored by 16 or more points have all covered. Yes, every single one of them. Granted, four of those seven covers were by Tom Brady, but the fact remains that laying 16 or so points is feasible in today’s NFL, as bad teams have a difficult time improving because of a lack of practice time.
That said, I’m not betting the Vikings. They’re coming off a grueling tie, and they have to battle the Rams on Thursday night in Week 4, so this is a look-ahead situation. I don’t believe they’ll be fully focused for Buffalo.
Does that mean I’ll be on the Bills? Umm… no. I wrote this in my NFL Power Rankings, but the Bills actually remind me of the 2016 Rams. That Rams team had some good players on defense, but was miserable on offense because it had a raw, rookie quarterback playing behind an offensive line that couldn’t block. Teams that can’t block whatsoever should seldom be picked, which is why the 2016 Rams seldom covered, so I’m not going to side with inept Buffalo.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m not touching this game. The sharps aren’t either. Let’s just move on.
SATURDAY NOTES: The Vikings will be missing Dalvin Cook, Pat Elflein and Everson Griffen. Those are three big losses, and yet I’m still going to side with Minnesota. That’s how bad the Bills are. Buffalo can’t block, and LeSean McCoy may not be on the field.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The Vikings are missing some key players, but LeSean McCoy is also out. I’m passing on this one. The sharps are as well.
The Psychology. Edge: Bills.
The Vikings, coming off a taxing tie, have to battle the Rams on Thursday night next week.
The Vegas. Edge: Bills.
Who is crazy enough to bet on Buffalo?
The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
Week 3 NFL Pick: Vikings 27, Bills 0
Vikings -16.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bills 27, Vikings 6
San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-0)
Line: Chiefs by 7. Total: 53.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -5.
Sunday, Sept 23, 1:00 PM
The Game. Edge: Chiefs.
If you’re unaware of this, you can publish your own articles on this Web site and have them promoted via Twitter, Facebook and this page! Check out our Open Rant feature, where articles get promoted all the time. Some readers’ articles have gotten more than 3,000 views, so if you want to get your opinion heard, here’s a great way for you to do so!
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Ryan Fitzpatrick: The Greatest Backup QB of All Time
Chicago Bears Week 1 Report Card
2019 NFL Draft Defensive Line Preview
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Monsmoy Mock Draft
KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Wow, Patrick Mahomes is awesome. I was high on Mahomes heading into the season, as I bet the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl at 35:1 odds, but I never expected him to post record-setting numbers. Ten touchdowns in two games is insane, as he’s on pace to throw for 80 scores this year. The scary thing is that he’s not even a finished product yet. He has started only three games! Andy Reid is still developing him, so what’s Mahomes going to look like in three seasons? If I were a fan of one of the other three teams in the AFC West, I’d be very depressed right now.
The 49ers have struggled defensively through two weeks, so they don’t have the personnel to at least slow down Mahomes a bit, right? Well, people may have forgotten this – based on where the money is going in this game, at least – but Reuben Foster will be back from suspension. Foster’s absence in the first two games has been quite apparent, so his presence will energize a San Francisco defense that was pretty stout last season when he was in the lineup. Foster will be crucial in keeping Travis Kelce from going off like he did last week versus Pittsburgh’s rancid linebacking corps. I also think San Francisco will do a good job on Kareem Hunt.
Unfortunately for the 49ers, they have some glaring holes in their secondary, so Mahomes will torch them. He won’t throw six touchdowns like he did versus the inept Steelers, but three seems like the most probable figure.
SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: While Foster’s presence will help considerably, Jimmy Garoppolo will have to engage Mahomes in a shootout to keep this game close. I believe he will be able to do that.
While I’m happy I have the Chiefs at 35:1 to win the Super Bowl, I’m very concerned about their defense, which features a poor linebacking corps and an even worse secondary. The latter will improve once Eric Berry is fully healthy, but it’s not clear when that will be the case. In the meantime, Garoppolo will torch the Chiefs, just as Ben Roethlisberger did last week. Everyone Garoppolo throws to could go the distance, and I especially like George Kittle after Jesse James eclipsed the century-yard mark.
Something that has held the 49ers’ offense back thus far has been their offensive line. They have problems at guard, but the Chiefs don’t have the personnel to take advantage of that. Kansas City’s best defensive player is Justin Houston, and San Francisco has Joe Staley to keep him from harassing Garoppolo too often.
RECAP: The Westgate advance spread was -4. Now, it’s all the way up to -7 (at Bovada and 5Dimes). That’s a three-point movement, solely because of what the Chiefs did to the Steelers. It was a great win, no doubt, but part of the reason it occurred is because the Steelers are not a good football team. I’ve been writing this since December. Since losing Ryan Shazier, Pittsburgh has covered the spread once, and that was against T.J. Yates. I didn’t understand why the Steelers were favored by more than a field goal last week, and no one should’ve been surprised that the Chiefs beat them.
I don’t think the three-point movement in this line is warranted at all. The Chiefs have a great offense, and Mahomes is terrific, but the defense is atrocious. It allowed the Steelers to hang around, and had the Chargers not dropped half-a-dozen passes in Week 1, that game would’ve been close as well. Garoppolo is a good quarterback, and I think he’ll be able to keep his team close. If he needs a back-door cover at the end, he should get it, considering how bad Kansas City’s stop unit is.
Also, as mentioned, Reuben Foster will be back on the field for the 49ers. San Francisco’s defense will look so much better with Foster in the lineup again. With Foster on the field, the 49ers have a better defense than the Steelers, so Mahomes won’t throw for six touchdowns again. It’ll be a more reasonable figure – one that’ll allow the 49ers to hang around and get the cover.
I love San Francisco here. This is my second-largest bet of the week, as I’m taking the 49ers for five units.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: BetUS has an unreal line for this game, listing the 49ers at +7 -105. I’m locking that in at five units. The other books have something like +7 -125, so getting +7 -105 is insane.
SATURDAY NOTES: Eric Berry is likely out again, which is great news for anyone who likes the 49ers this week. I’m still confident in my five-unit wager.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been all over the 49ers, as this line has dropped to +5.5 in some books. I still love San Francisco at +6 or better.
The Psychology. Edge: .
The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
Everyone is excited to bet the Chiefs.
The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
Week 3 NFL Pick: Chiefs 35, 49ers 34
49ers +7 -105 (5 Units) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$525
Over 53.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 38, 49ers 27
Week 3 NFL Picks – Late Games
LA Chargers at LA Rams, Chicago at Arizona, Dallas at Seattle, New England at Detroit, Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay
Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
NFL Picks - Dec. 11
2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11
NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9
2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29
Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4
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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265
2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)
2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265
2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)
2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.
| Cowboys: 6-6 |
Bears: 5-7 |
Bucs: 8-5 |
49ers: 8-5 |
| Eagles: 7-6 |
Lions: 10-3 |
Falcons: 7-6 |
Cardinals: 9-4 |
| Giants: 4-8 |
Packers: 9-3 |
Panthers: 5-8 |
Rams: 7-6 |
| Redskins: 6-6 |
Vikings: 5-7 |
Saints: 6-7 |
Seahawks: 7-5 |
| |
|
||
| Bills: 5-8 |
Bengals: 3-10 |
Colts: 7-6 |
Broncos: 9-4 |
| Dolphins: 5-8 |
Browns: 5-8 |
Jaguars: 4-7 |
Chargers: 7-5 |
| Jets: 7-6 |
Ravens: 6-6 |
Texans: 5-7 |
Chiefs: 5-7 |
| Patriots: 7-4 |
Steelers: 6-7 |
Titans: 8-4 |
Raiders: 7-6 |
| |
|
||
| Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561) |
2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387) |
2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441) |
2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211) |
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446) |
2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293) |
Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185) |
Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37) |
2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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