These are my 2018 NFL Betting Props. I've done well with these props over the past couple of years. My record since 2014 is 18-13, +$600. Of my top three props last year, two hit. I had Buccaneers over 6.5 and Browns under 5 as the big winners, while Falcons under 8 was a horrible call. Here's what I'm betting.
Updated July 23, 2018
2018 NFL Betting Props: Teams
Chicago Bears: Over 6.5 Wins
A friend who told me the Eagles were going to win the Super Bowl last year has called the Bears his 2018 sleeper team. And it's easy to see why. Chicago has an outstanding defense, yet won just five games in 2017 because it had a rookie quarterback with no one to throw to and a poor coaching staff. Now, Mitchell Trubisky has experience and an improved supporting cast, and he'll be coached up for a change. It seems as though the Bears should be able to win nine or 10 games this year.
Betting 5 Units (-130) at MGM
Kansas City Chiefs: Over 8.5 Wins
The Chiefs are currently No. 6 in my NFL Power Rankings
, so I have to like this over. I can't believe this number is so low. The Chiefs upgraded their quarterback this offseason, they added weapons to their offense, and they'll be getting Eric Berry back from injury. Kansas City seems like a 10-6 team at worst to me.
Betting 5 Units (-105) at Wynn
Seattle Seahawks: Under 8 Wins
Someone needs to send out a telegram to all NFL fans and inform them that the Seahawks aren't good anymore. It'll be very difficult for them to reach 9-7, thanks to their depleted defense, horrendous offensive line and non-existent running game. If you thought Russell Wilson did everything himself before, you ain't seen nothing yet.
Betting 5 Units (-110) at MGM
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 6.5 Wins
The Buccaneers could have the worst record in the NFL this year. Jameis Winston has been aloof all offseason, and he'll miss the first three games with a suspension. Tampa has a ridiculously difficult schedule, as it plays in the toughest division in football. Don't forget that Dirk Koetter is a lame-duck coach.
Betting 5 Units (-120) at Caesar's
Washington Redskins: Over 7 Wins
The Redskins had an unbelievable amount of injuries last year, and despite this, they were still able to finish 7-9. They should have better luck this year, which should allow them to cruise over seven wins.
Betting 2 Units (+110) at Westgate
2018 NFL Betting Props: Super Bowl Odds
Chicago Bears: 100/1
I don't think the Bears will win the Super Bowl this year, but they seem too good to pass up at 100:1. I think there's a good chance they'll make the playoffs, so this will make for a good hedging opportunity.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 50 at Westgate
Houston Texans: 22/1
The Texans seem built to win now. They have a young, talented quarterback under a rookie contract, so they were able to spend lots of money this offseason. They focused on repairing their secondary, which will pair well with the amazing front seven.
Betting 1 Unit to win 22 at MGM
Kansas City Chiefs: 35/1
Patrick Mahomes, unlike Alex Smith, can lead the Chiefs deep into the playoffs. Kansas City will also be getting Eric Berry back from injury, which will be a huge boon for a defense that struggled last year.
Betting 1 Units to win 35 at Caesar's
New Orleans Saints: 19/1
It could be argued that the Saints are the best team in the NFL, so getting them at 19/1 odds seems pretty sweet. It's puzzling why this number is so high. They were one missed tackle away from going to the NFC Championship last year, and their great 2017 NFL Draft class will all have experience heading into 2018.
Betting 1 Unit to win 19 at Caesar's
2018 NFL Betting Props: Other
Chicago Bears to win NFC North: 12/1
Can you tell I'm high on the Bears this year? If Aaron Rodgers gets hurt, the Bears could be the team that claims the division. I think there's better than a 12-to-1 shot that Rodgers goes down, so I like these odds.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 6 at Westgate
Will Minnesota Vikings Make the Playoffs: No +240
I'm high on the Bears and low on the Vikings. Minnesota's signing of Kirk Cousins reminds me of the Ravens acquiring Elvis Grbac after winning the Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer. Cousins could be fat and happy, and he won't have good timing with his new receivers right away. The Vikings play in a tough conference, and every team in their division has a good chance of being .500 or better. Throw in Tony Sparano's unfortunate passing, and you have a recipe for disaster for the Vikings in 2018.
Betting 2 Units to win 4.8 at Westgate
Carolina Panthers +6.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Westgate offers spreads on key future games. This one really stood out to me. The Panthers are better than the Steelers, yet are +6.5 in Pittsburgh in this Week 10 battle? How does that make sense? If you're wondering if there are any Week 9 implications, the Steelers will be coming off a tough battle versus the Ravens, while Carolina will be coming off an easy victory against the Buccaneers.
Betting 3.3 Units to win 3 at Westgate
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