NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3, 2018

NFL Picks (Preseason 2018): 11-10 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 8-7-1 (+$150)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$80)

NFL Picks (2018): 27-24-2 (+$515)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$3,790)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 23, 11:25 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 3 NFL Picks – Early Games

Los Angeles Chargers (1-1) at Los Angeles Rams (2-0)
Line: Rams by 7. Total: 49.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Rams -3.5.
Sunday, Sept 23, 4:05 PM

The Game. Edge: None.

Make sure you get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2018 NFL Survivor Pool. You have until Sunday to register, so do it soon! Of the 1,225 starting players, we lost 723 because of the Saints and Lions. Unreal. We’re down to 418 players.

We also have our Weekly Fantasy Football Contest. You can enter for free and win cash prizes!

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams basically did whatever they wanted to offensively last week, picking up where they left off in the second half of the season opener. They look like a juggernaut, which is why the spread has been inflated in their favor.

Is it fully justified though? That’s what we need to investigate, and I would say no. The Rams have battled two teams with bottom-five NFL defenses. They haven’t been challenged on this side of the ball yet, and that’s something the Chargers will do. Granted, the Chargers don’t have Joey Bosa or Corey Liuget available, but they still have some talented players on their stop unit. Their secondary in particular is stellar, as first-round rookie safety Derwin James has been as good as advertised. Jared Goff got away with some possible interceptions the opening two weeks, and I have to believe that the Chargers will capitalize on such opportunities.

The Chargers will also be tasked with stopping Todd Gurley, of course, so it’s a good thing that they’ve had plenty of practice heading into this game. They’ve battled two dynamic backs thus far, taking on Kareem Hunt and LeSean McCoy in the first two games of the season. The two combined for 88 rushing yards on 25 carries, so the Chargers should fare relatively well against Gurley.

One other quick thing of note: The Rams won’t have Greg Zuerlein available. This didn’t matter against the hapless Cardinals, but his absence could be felt in a more competitive game.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams have also looked great defensively, and understandably so. They have numerous Pro Bowlers on their defensive line and in their secondary. However, they have some flaws that can be exploited, particularly in the linebacking corps.

The Chargers seem like they’ll be able to do that. It’s the game plan the Raiders installed by constantly feeding the ball to Jared Cook, who had a monstrous 2018 debut. The Rams had no answer for Cook, but the Raiders fell apart because Carr had a second-half meltdown. The Chargers don’t have a dynamic tight end like Cook with Hunter Henry on injured reserve, but they possess Melvin Gordon, who has done a terrific job of catching the ball out of the backfield this year. Rivers constantly picked on Bills rookie linebacker Tremaine Edmunds last week with crossing routes, and Edmunds is better than anyone the Rams possess at the position.

Elsewhere, the Chargers should be able to get Keenan Allen in favorable matchups in the slot. They’ll need to, as they don’t really have any alternatives beyond that and the advantage versus the linebackers.

RECAP: Two weeks ago, I promised another September NFL Pick of the Month because the Browns line shrunk from +6 to +3.5. Well, I’m a man of a my word, and this is my second September NFL Pick of the Month.

This line was -5.5 on the Westgate advance spread, yet it moved 1.5 points, crossing the key number of six and reaching an even greater key number of seven because… why? Because the Rams clobbered the Cardinals, who might be the worst team in the NFL? Before you tell me not to dismiss that result, I’d like to remind you that the Redskins similarly dismantled the Cardinals in Week 1. They led 24-0, then took their foot off the gas. And that was in Arizona. Should I remind you what happened to the Redskins after that game?

The Rams are perceived as an elite team because they have so many big names, but I still question if they can be a cohesive unit against good competition. They haven’t been challenged yet, as the Raiders and Cardinals are both among the five worst teams in the NFL. The Chargers are obviously much better, and they’ll actually be able to provide a challenge.

Rivers, in particular, is important. He’s a terrific quarterback who habitually keeps most games close. That would explain his stellar 13-5 ATS record as an underdog of 6.5 or more in his career. I love getting lots of points with great signal-callers, and this is yet another instance of that.

I also think there’s a good chance the Chargers are way more focused for this game than the Rams. They can prepare fully for their opponent, while the Rams have to worry about playing in four days versus the Vikings. That could be a future NFC Championship matchup, so the winner of that battle could have home-field advantage. That’s way more important than this contest.

I envision that the Rams, who have bigger fish to fry, will show up flat in front of a typically lethargic Los Angeles crowd. The Chargers should catch them off-guard and potentially win this game. At the very least, it’ll be close, and I’m willing to bet eight units on it.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: An e-mailer pointed out that Philip Rivers has a poor track record versus Wade Phillips, but all Rivers needs to do is stay within a touchdown, so I still love the Chargers. It’s +7 -110 in most places, but BetUS has +7.5 -115. That’s definitely a better number than +7 -110. I considered locking that in, but without any sharp money coming in on the Chargers, we might get something better.

SATURDAY NOTES/PICK LOCKED IN: I was still holding out hope for +7 -105, but that’s not coming. Pinnacle, the sharpest book out there, moved this to +7 -114, presumably because they got hit with some sharp action on the Chargers. Other books have moved this to +7 -115 in turn as well. Fortunately, there are some books still offering +7 -110 like Bookmaker and TopBet. I’m going to lock in +7 -110. I’ll be sad if this line moves toward the Rams again, but I’d be even more upset if I lost out on +7 -110 all together.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I was kicking myself because I saw the Chargers available at +7 -105 at Bookmaker last night, but they’ve since moved the juice to -119. I can’t even find +7 at -110 juice anymore. The best I can see is +7 -115 at BetUS. There’s some sharp money on the Chargers, but not a lot.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m still not seeing any +7s with -110 juice. The sharp action has been on the Chargers, but the books don’t want to move off seven. The best number remains +7 -115 at BetUS.

The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.

The Rams have a very important game in just four days versus the Vikings.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 58% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Philip Rivers is 13-5 ATS as an underdog of 6.5 or more.

Philip Rivers is 24-10 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 or more.

Opening Line: Rams -6.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Sunny, 82 degrees. Light wind.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Chargers 26, Rams 24
Chargers +7 (8 Units – Bonus September NFL Pick of the Month) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$880
Over 49 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Rams 35, Chargers 23

Chicago Bears (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (0-2)
Line: Bears by 5.5. Total: 39.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bears -3.5.
Sunday, Sept 23, 4:25 PM

The Game. Edge: Bears.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 11 is underway! In Episode 2, murder at Gillette Stadium! Someone is killed on the Patriots’ stadium grounds just one day after new owner Emmitt meets with his coaching staff.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears would be 2-0 right now with a pair of blowout wins if it weren’t for Mitchell Trubisky. The second-year quarterback has great physical talent, but hasn’t been able to put it together yet. He missed some crucial passes against the Packers when Aaron Rodgers was in the locker room, so Chicago couldn’t run away with a big victory. Then, on Monday night, he fired some horrible interceptions in the opening half to go along with more whiffs. Had he avoided those mistakes, the Bears would’ve beaten the Seahawks by far more than seven points.

Trubisky will have a chance to get back on track against the miserable Cardinals, who have never replaced Calais Campbell, Tyrann Mathieu or Xavier Williams. Arizona’s defense is anemic. Patrick Peterson and Haason Reddick are playing well, and Chandler Jones is still a threat to get tons of sacks, but that’s it. Aside from Peterson, the Cardinals’ secondary is rancid. Cornerback Jamar Taylor is especially putrid, and the same goes for linebacker Deone Bucannon. The Bears will have players wide open again, so it’ll be up to Trubisky to hit them.

It’ll be up to Trubisky to move the chains because the one thing the Cardinals seem to do well is stop the run. Adrian Peterson trampled them in the opener, but the coaching staff seemed to make the appropriate adjustments ahead of the Rams game, which allowed them to limit Todd Gurley. That didn’t end up mattering because Jared Goff torched them. If Trubisky can come close to replicating Goff’s performance in Week 2, this will be a blowout.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Of course, Trubisky may not need to do anything for this to be a blowout, based on how truly awful the Cardinals’ scoring unit is. And I probably should’ve written scoring unit in quotations because Arizona didn’t even cross midfield last week until the penultimate play of the game!

Sam Bradford sucks, and Arizona can’t pass protect. Sure, the Cardinals were going up against a terrific defense, but that’s exactly what the Bears possess. The Cardinals have no chance of blocking Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks and company. Constantly under siege, Sam Bradford – assuming he even keeps his job, as millennial extraordinare Josh Rosen yawns on the sideline because football is too boring for him – will respond by tossing his trademark 2-yard checkdowns.

In addition to being outmatched, the Cardinals put together a terrible game plan last week, failing to get David Johnson in space versus the Rams’ poor linebackers. That won’t even be an option this time because the Bears are much better at the position, thanks to Danny Trevathan and Roquan Smith.

RECAP: The public is pounding the Bears, but this is an occasion in which I think casual bettors happen to be correct. The Cardinals are a train wreck right now, while the Bears are one of the better teams in the NFL. If you exclude quarterback from every roster in the NFL, Chicago and Jacksonville would be the favorites to play in the Super Bowl.

Unfortunately, quarterback is a very important position, and Trubisky is not getting the job done. He has potential, but he’s very mistake-prone at the moment, and he’s not someone I want to count on to cover -6 on the road, even against a horrible opponent. I’m taking the Bears for picking pool purposes, but I’m not going to bet them in this situation.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps are betting the Cardinals. This line has fallen to -5.5, but I’m still not going to bet Chicago.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s a ton of sharp money coming in on the Cardinals. If you like the Bears, keep waiting for this line to fall.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Man, I was way off. I thought this spread would keep falling because of sharp action, but that stopped coming in, and the spread has bounced back up to -5.5 or -6. My apologies, but these things can be unpredictable.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line is -5.5 in most books, though +6 -115 at Bovada, which is better than +5.5 -110. I’m not interested in betting this game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Who wants to bet on Arizona now?

Percentage of money on Chicago: 75% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Cardinals are 31-16 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Bears -5.5.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Dome.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Bears 20, Cardinals 10
Bears -5.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 39 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bears 16, Cardinals 14

Dallas Cowboys (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (0-2)
Line: Pick. Total: 40.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -3 +100.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -3.
Sunday, Sept 23, 4:25 PM

The Game. Edge: TBA.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Friends from College.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks have plenty of issues on this side of the ball right now, from their banged-up receiving corps, to the sheer incompetence of offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, who only has a job in the pros because of nepotism. The biggest offender for the Seahawks, however, is their offensive line. The blockers will once again have major problems, as Dallas possesses a ferocious defensive front. DeMarcus Lawrence, in particular, will prove to be a huge problem for inept right tackle Germain Ifedi.

If there’s one glimmer of hope for the Seahawks, it’s that Sean Lee could be out. Lee, the heart and soul of Dallas’ defense, left Sunday night’s game in the fourth quarter with a hamstring issue of sorts. That’s when the Giants began moving the ball. The Cowboys have been historically poor without Lee, and that will prove to be the case in this matchup if Lee is out, as Russell Wilson will be able to exploit a weakened linebacking corps. Lee could play, but even if he does, he may not be 100 percent and could exit early.

Unfortunately, that’s where the positives conclude for the Seahawks on this side of the ball. Their receiving corps is rancid without Doug Baldwin; Tyler Lockett is an inconsistent, inefficient player, while Brandon Marshall can’t separate. The Cowboys have some solid players in their secondary, so they won’t be beaten often in this game.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Seahawks aren’t the only team in this matchup that is having problems scoring. Dak Prescott had a great rookie year because he had an awesome supporting cast, but his offensive line has seen a sharp decline, as there are holes up front at left guard, center and right tackle. Prescott simply doesn’t trust his blocking, so he’s constantly tossing checkdowns, and defenses simply aren’t being challenged for the most part.

The Seahawks have defensive woes themselves, as their linebacking corps was ravaged by injury Monday night. Had Mitchell Trubisky had been competent, the Bears could’ve posted close to 40 points on Seattle. That won’t happen in this contest, however, as Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright are due back from injury. Their presence on the field will be enormous, as they’ll give their team a chance of containing Ezekiel Elliott.

Another reason why Seattle should do a decent job on Elliott is because the Cowboys don’t have anyone to challenge their secondary downfield. Prescott isn’t looking to throw deep on most occasions, and Dallas’ best receiver, Michael Gallup, is barely playing for some reason. Jason Garrett, ladies and gentlemen.

RECAP: This line was -3 on the Westgate advance spread, yet it moved a whole four points when Dallas opened -1. Sharp money has taken this to Seattle -1.5, but it’s still odd to see that much of an overreaction to a couple of games. Were people really impressed with Dallas’ win over the Giants on Sunday Night Football? Of course not, so this is about the Seahawks’ pathetic showing against the Bears. Except, it shouldn’t have been surprising to anyone paying attention to what’s actually happening in the NFL. The Bears are great, while the Seahawks were missing their two top linebackers, including Wagner, who is one of the best players at his position in the entire league. I’ve discussed earlier how imperative do-it-all linebackers are in today’s NFL. Had Wagner been on the field, the Seahawks would’ve been much more competitive.

It sounds like Wagner and Wright will be on the field again. Meanwhile, Lee could be out or hurt. That’s huge for Dallas. The Cowboys have a stellar front seven, but their defense won’t be the same without him. We saw a preview of this when the Giants began having success in the fourth quarter.

This pick will largely depend on the health of the all-important linebackers, so check back for a concrete unit count. If both Wagner and Lee play, I’ll still be on the Seahawks, perhaps for a couple of units because this line is incorrect. The Seahawks should be favored by three or 3.5. If Wagner is out again, however, I won’t be wagering any money on the host.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The injury report updates on Thursday and Friday will be crucial for this pick, as we need to see if Bobby Wagner, Sean Lee and K.J. Wright are going to play. I may increase the unit count on this game depending on what’s announced.

SATURDAY NOTES: Bobby Wagner is back … but Earl Thomas could be out! He missed Friday’s practice. K.J. Wright won’t be in the lineup either. Meanwhile, Sean Lee told reporters he’s going to play. He could be knocked out early, so be careful if you want to bet the Cowboys. I’m still going to be on Seattle, but I’m downgrading this to zero units because of the Thomas and Wright news.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Seahawks should have Earl Thomas available, but could be without their starting center versus a great defensive line. I’m still zero units on Seattle, but that could change. Check back at around 3:45 p.m. for final thoughts.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Seattle’s center, Justin Britt, is active, but it remains to be seen if he’ll start. Earl Thomas is also active, as is Sean Lee. I’m not going to bet this game, but I would wager on the Seahawks if I had to.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.
Slight lean on the host.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 64% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

The underdog is 77-52 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Cowboys are 33-24 ATS as an underdog since 2009.

Seahawks are 24-6 ATS in September home games since 2000.

Seahawks are 43-26 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Russell Wilson is 12-8 ATS after a loss as long as he’s not favored by -10 or more.

Opening Line: Cowboys -1.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 62 degrees. Light wind.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Seahawks 20, Cowboys 13
Seahawks PK (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 40 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 24, Cowboys 13

New England Patriots (1-1) at Detroit Lions (0-2)
Line: Patriots by 6.5. Total: 55.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -6.
Sunday, Sept 23, 8:20 PM

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

I’m going to devote this section to Ross Avila. If this is your first time reading this, and you don’t know who Ross is, he’s a douche who harassed me on Facebook about my picks all last year. Here are some of the things he said:

He wrote this to me during the Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl, where he bragged about being right about Atlanta. Oops.

Ross constantly embarrassed himself throughout the year, including when he posted this, suggesting that he sold picks to people:

I eventually unfriended Ross. He started going after women on my Facebook page, including my then-fiancee. I warned him, and he didn’t listen, so I unfriended him.

Because I was a big part of Ross’ life, he sent me countless messages. I’ve shown you some already. Check this one out:

Yeah, OK. I’ll tell some random dude that I’m friends with a scumbag who harasses me. By the way, is anyone surprised that Ross is being bullied in school? If he wasn’t such a douche, maybe he’d have some friends.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots obviously haven’t been content with their receiver situation, as they signed Corey Coleman and then traded for Josh Gordon yesterday. Gordon could help immensely if he stops acting stupid, but that’s been a huge problem for him. However, if he’s going to succeed somewhere, it’ll be New England. Bill Belichick has gotten the most out of many reclamation projects in the past, most notably with Randy Moss. The Hall of Fame receiver was considered a troubled player, much like Gordon, but he turned his career around with the Patriots. Gordon has the potential to do the same.

I’m not sure how much Gordon will do in his debut with the Patriots, but he’ll have a difficult matchup with Darius Slay. Still, that’ll free someone else up against Detroit’s many other incompetent defensive players. The Lions have a poor secondary and an even worse linebacking corps, so Brady will be able to pick and choose how he’ll want to dismantle the worst defense in the NFL that happens to be east of Oakland.

Meanwhile, it’s unclear who will run the ball for the Patriots – is it ever? – but Sony Michel showed some promise last week, and we saw the Lions surrender a big game to Matt Breida.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Matthew Stafford will have to match Brady point for point in order to beat him. I don’t see Brady being slowed down, so Stafford will have to be as efficient and sharp as possible. Stafford, however, hasn’t been good in the red zone for the most part, so while it’s possible that the Lions could have success moving the chains in between the 20s, they’ll lose if they keep trading threes for sevens.

The question is how potent Stafford will be in between the 20s, and he certainly has a chance to be effective in the middle of the field. The Patriots have some major liabilities at linebacker, and Stafford tends to thrive against teams where he can beat the opposition with crossing routes. As we saw this past Sunday, the Patriots have some glaring problems on this side of the ball, as they struggled to defend no-name receivers and running backs.

A big issue for the Patriots in the Jacksonville game was that they didn’t have any sort of pass rush. That’s because their best defensive lineman, Trey Flowers, went down after just seven snaps with a concussion. His availability will obviously be huge, as the Patriots will be able to put heat on Stafford if he’s in the lineup.

RECAP: When is the last time the Lions won a big game? When is the last time they had success against an opponent as a large underdog? I couldn’t remember, so I looked it up. The history isn’t pretty. Since 2011, the Lions have been underdogs of six or more 15 times. They’ve covered the spread ONCE in those 15 occasions. There was a push as well, so they are 1-13-1 against the spread as dogs of six or more this decade. That’s unbelievable!

Now, history doesn’t determine the future, and there’s nothing to stop the Lions from covering nine of their next 10 as huge dogs. However, I’m not sure the Lions will turn things around beginning this week. Their defense is anemic, while the Patriots will be angry after getting blown out in Jacksonville. I expect a better effort from the Patriots this week, especially if Flowers is back on the field.

That said, I’m not betting this game. I’d be scared of a back-door cover – we just saw Stafford pull one off last week – and the Patriots typically don’t shoot their load in September, so this is not the appropriate time to wager on them. I knew this last week, yet I still took them for five units, which was a foolish decision. I won’t do that again.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The lack of sharp money on the Lions has caused this spread to move up to -7, thanks to all the public action on the Patriots. This is one of Kenny’s top picks per the WF Podcast.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams might be without a key defensive player. Trey Flowers is listed as doubtful for the Patriots, while the Lions may not have top cornerback Darius Slay. The Lions barely have any talent in their secondary, and an absent Slay will make it very difficult to stop Tom Brady.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Darius Slay has been cleared to play, so there goes that advantage. I still like the Patriots, but wouldn’t bet them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Between Jimmy Garoppolo’s injury when the 49ers had a chance to push with a touchdown, and the Chargers’ multiple screw-ups and surprisingly terrible defense, today was very tilting, so I couldn’t stomach betting on this game. It looks like there’s some sharp action on the Lions. I still have no strong opinion on this game, but would take New England if I had to.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

This is likely to be an 80-20 game.

Percentage of money on New England: 79% (64,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Tom Brady is 223-69 as a starter (165-114 ATS).

Tom Brady is 38-16 ATS off a loss (5-10 ATS as -7 or more).

Tom Brady is 30-12 ATS off a loss since 2003 (5-9 ATS as -7 or more).

Bill Belichick is 27-10 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Patriots are 12-15 ATS as road favorites since 2013.

Lions are 1-13 ATS as underdogs of 6 or more since 2011.

Opening Line: Patriots -6.5.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Patriots 34, Lions 24
Patriots -6.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 55 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Lions 26, Patriots 10

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0)
Line: Pick. Total: 54.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Buccaneers -2.5.
Monday, Sept 24, 8:15 PM

The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have two people I don’t know calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Tampa City where the Tampa City Buccaneers take on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Guys, I’m really excited about Jon Gruden’s return to the NFL because that means there’s less competition for me. The producers used to always say, “Why can’t you be more like Jon Gruden and come up with great nicknames for players?” and I told them that I barely know anyone in the NFL except players on my Philadelphia Eagles. Now, Gruden is no longer on TV, and he’s coaching the Bucs. I don’t see him, by the way, where is he?

Emmitt: Gruden, that guy you are asking about not on the team tonight. He coaching the Raider, the team that moving to Sim City. I do not rememberance what him’s name are though but I remember that it start with the number “G.”

Reilly: I have no idea who you’re talking about, but I remember Sim City. I wanted to play it but mother said it was too scary for me and that I shouldn’t have that sort of power of anyone, even Sims, because I showed homicidal tendencies when I was a kid. All I did was kill animals and smear their blood all over my neighbor’s doors!

Tollefson: You’re a weirdo, Kevin. When I was a kid I used to break into my neighbors’ houses – the ones that had hot girls living inside – and I used to steal their panties, then sell them on eBay when I was done with them. I made a killing, especially when I realized that I could trick people into thinking they were celebrities’ underwear.

Reilly: That’s stupid, Tolly. Who would ever buy women’s underwear? Do women even wear underwear? I asked mother this once, and she told me I wasn’t old enough to ask questions like this. I think I asked it two weeks ago.

Wolfley: KEVIN, I HOPE YOUR MOTHER DOESN’T YELL AT ME THE NEXT TIME I COME OVER YOUR HOUSE BECAUSE I WOULD LIKE TO TELL YOU THE ANSWER TO YOUR QUESTION. I DON’T KNOW MANY WOMEN, BUT I DO KNOW SOME FIRE HYDRANTS WITH LIPS, AND I CAN TELL YOU FOR CERTAIN THAT FIRE HYDRANTS WITH LIPS WEAR WOMEN’S UNDERWEAR, BUT FIRE HYDRANTS WITHOUT LIPS DO NOT WEAR WOMEN’S UNDERWEAR.

Herm: WHAT FIRE HYDRANT!? WHAT FIRE HYDRANTS!? NEVER HEARD OF THESE FIRE HYDRANTS! NEVER HEARD OF FIRE HYDRANTS WEARING UNDERWEAR! NEVER HEARD OF FIRE HYDRANTS WITH LIPS! NEVER HEARD OF FIRE HYDRANTS WITH ANYTHING! NEVER-

Reilly: Shut up, idiot! Weren’t you supposed to be coaching Arizona State!? Why are you still here? It’s like someone forgot to write you off because you took a job elsewhere, yet forgot about it and now he’s rolling with it!

Fouts: And here’s what he means by Arizona State. Arizona is a state. It’s not a city, or a country, or a planet, or a mole hole, or a village, or a church, or a township, or a county, or a universe, or a galaxy. It’s a state. The word “state” comes after Arizona, but not before. If it was before, it would be State Arizona. But it comes after, so it’s Arizona State. Arizona State. Arizona is a state. Does everyone understand what I’m talking about here?

Cutler: Huh? Were you talking to me? I was playing Candy Crush.

Reilly: Candy Crush? New daddy, can I play?

Cutler: Come on man, if you play on my phone, I’m gonna actually have to watch the game, and that’ll suck big time.

Reilly: But new daaady, I waaanaa pllaaaaayy!!!

Charles Davis: Kevin, I just spoke to your mother, Kevin, and she says it’s too dangerous to play Candy Crush, Kevin. Let’s discuss Candy Crush instead, Kevin. Let’s run through the colors, Kevin. Let’s start with the red candy, Kevin. How about the blue candy, Kevin? Why not discuss the green candy, Kevin? What about the purple candy, Kevin? Can you name a color we haven’t mentioned yet, Kevin? I’ll give you 716 guesses, Kevin.

Reilly: Charles, please, enough of your games. I’m upset new daddy won’t let me play.

Charles Davis: OK, Kevin. I’ll ignore your pepperoni pizza answer, Kevin, and I’ll let you play Candy Crush on my phone, Kevin.

Reilly: Wow, you… you defended me last week, and now you’re letting me play Candy Crush? Charles, I don’t think I can ever think about killing you again! We’ll be back after this!

Charles Davis (inaudibly): And soon, Kevin, you’ll see my master plan, Kevin, and victory will be mine, Kevin. Muhahaha, Kevin.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Stats can be very misleading sometimes, yet many fans rely on them because they love fantasy football. Take Ben Roethlisberger’s numbers from last week, for example. Roethisberger went 39-of-60 for 452 yards and three touchdowns. People will look at that and say Roethlisberger had a great game, but that was not the case. Roethlisberger didn’t play poorly, or anything, but he missed numerous throws he should’ve completed. He also showed poor chemistry with Antonio Brown, as the two had way too many miscommunications and misfires.

Roethlisberger has a great matchup this week against Tampa’s ailing secondary, but that was the case last week when Roethlisberger was battling the Chiefs. He had plenty of great drives, but there were enough miscues to prevent him from fully keeping pace with Patrick Mahomes. If Ryan Fitzpatrick stays hot, Roethlisberger will need to clean up his act to match the Buccaneers on the scoreboard.

One important aspect of Pittsburgh’s offense that must be discussed is David DeCastro, who missed Sunday’s game with a broken hand. DeCastro is one of the top guards in the NFL, and his presence will be required in this matchup. That may sound odd until I remind you that he’ll be tasked with keeping All-Pro defensive tackle Gerald McCoy out of the backfield. His replacement will not be able to do that.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Fitzpatrick has dual 400-yard performances to start the year, and he could make it a trio. We just saw Mahomes slice and dice Pittsburgh’s poor defense, so Fitzpatrick could pick up where he left off.

It would help the Steelers if they had Joe Haden available again. Haden hurt his hamstring at the end of the season opener, which was the catalyst for Cleveland’s comeback. Haden, the Steelers’ No. 1 cornerback by a wide margin, would give Pittsburgh a chance of defending Mike Evans; otherwise, the talented receiver will crush the opposition again. It’ll be important for Haden to be around to stop Evans because they figure to struggle against O.J. Howard, as their linebacking corps has not been repaired following Ryan Shazier’s injury.

Putting pressure on Fitzpatrick will obviously be imperative as well, as Fitzpatrick will have to throw to move the chains because the ground attack is struggling. I don’t trust left tackle Donovan Smith, so Bud Dupree will need to step up.

RECAP: Did you know that the Steelers have covered only once since Shazier’s injury, and that lone spread win was against the T.J. Yates-led Texans on Christmas last year? It’s true. The oddsmakers have continued to inflate the number in Pittsburgh’s favor, as the public doesn’t recognize that the Steelers simply aren’t are a good team without their all-world linebacker.

That said, I was hoping for a better number than this. This spread probably would’ve been Steelers -4 or higher a couple of weeks ago, and now Pittsburgh is just favored by a point or two. We’ve lost line value, though I still believe the Buccaneers are the right side. I’ll be on them for a non-wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I get the feeling that all of the stuff involving Antonio Brown is just nonsense, and that the Steelers are going to win in spite of that, leaving clueless ESPN analysts baffled in the post-game report. Of all the games this week, this is the only one where I’m thinking about a pick change. I get the feeling that all the talking heads on TV will be on the Buccaneers to win outright despite the fact that the Steelers are favored.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’ve thought a lot about this game, and I’ve decided that I like the Steelers. This is the type of game where everyone on TV is going to pick the Buccaneers and say, “Do the Steelers have a chance?” and I’ll be yelling at the TV, “The Steelers are favored, you idiots!” Everyone is down on the Steelers because of all the Antonio Brown-related off-the-field stuff, but the media tends to overblow stuff like that. Joe Haden will be back from injury, which is huge; Pittsburgh had a meltdown against the Browns in Week 1 following Haden’s injury. It’s not ideal that two Pittsburgh starting offensive linemen aren’t practicing, but I think the Steelers will win and cover. I’m going to put three units on them.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The line is now down to pick ’em. I really like the Steelers. Think about it this way: We’ve probably seen the Buccaneers play their two best games of the year, while the Steelers just played a hot quarterback without their No. 1 corner, whom they’ll have back this week. The advance spread on this game was Pittsburgh -4. The line has moved four points in a week!

FINAL THOUGHTS: It’s a bummer that the Steelers won’t have the right side of their offensive line, but the Steelers have known this and will be able to game plan around it. What they couldn’t game plan for was Joe Haden’s absence, and Haden will play. I still really like the Steelers, as we’re getting 4-6 points of value, depending on which spread you’re getting. The best number I like is the Steelers moneyline +105 at Bookmaker. I’m keeping three units on this game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 58% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Mike Tomlin is 20-12 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Steelers are 24-37 ATS as road favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Steelers -2.5.

Opening Total: 52.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 81 degrees. Light wind.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Steelers 30, Buccaneers 27
Steelers PK +105 (3 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$315
Over 54 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Steelers 30, Buccaneers 27

Week 3 NFL Picks – Early Games
NY Jets at Cleveland, New Orleans at Atlanta, San Francisco at Kansas City, Oakland at Miami, Buffalo at Minnesota, Indianapolis at Philadelphia, Green Bay at Washington, Cincinnati at Carolina, Tennessee at Jacksonville, Denver at Baltimore, NY Giants at Houston

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Saints +7.5, Redskins +8.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200

NFL Picks - Dec. 13

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)