NFL Picks (Week 1, 2016): 13-3 (+$1,735) full review
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2016): 9-7 (-$430) full review
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2016): 7-7-2 (+$880) full review
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2016): 7-8 (-$70) full review
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2016): 6-7-1 (+$115) full review
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2016): 7-7-1 (+$515) full review
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2016): 11-4 (+$1,560) full review
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2016): 8-4-1 (-$60) full review
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2016): 5-6-2 (-$1,170) full review
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2016): 9-4-1 (+$80) full review
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2016): 7-7 (+$225) full review
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2016): 5-10-1 (-$1,090) full review
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2016): 9-6 (-$205) full review
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2016): 7-8-1 (-$440)
NFL Picks (2016): 130-103-9 (+$2,935)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.
Vegas betting action updated Dec. 19, 7:00 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.
Go to Week 15 NFL Picks – Late Games
Los Angeles Rams (4-9) at Seattle Seahawks (8-4-1)
Line: Seahawks by 15. Total: 39.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -12.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -14.5.
Thursday, Dec 15, 8:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
WEEK 14 RECAP: Monday night’s result would’ve determined whether I have a winning week or not – except, it didn’t, because the game pushed. I finished an underwhelming 7-8-1, -$440. Week 14 was comprised of bad luck and bad picks. The former component had to do with all of the Saints’ dropped touchdowns as well as two key players being ruled out an hour prior to kickoff when I already locked my picks in. The Raiders and Bills wouldn’t have Kelechi Osemele and Kyle Williams, and the absences of those two players impacted Oakland and Buffalo substantially. There was also a third instance like that this week – the Eagles ruled out Brandon Brooks – but I didn’t have that locked in, and I was able to switch my selection from Philadelphia to Washington. I’ve always said that the toughest thing coaches have to do is make adjustments on the fly for injured players, especially great ones. Without Osemele and Williams, the Raiders couldn’t block, and the Bills couldn’t stop the run whatsoever.
The bad pick was mostly about the Rams. I can’t believe I bet on them again. They’re a dead team, much like the Browns. I’m going to have to ask my developer to crunch the numbers, but I imagine that if it weren’t for the Rams and Browns, I’d be up close to 50 units this year. I’m so stupid for betting them almost every week. I’ve definitely improved my handicapping this year by not looking at trends anymore, but identifying and avoiding these horrible, poisonous teams is something I’ll have to work on for 2017.
LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Jeff Fisher was fired Monday, a move that should’ve occurred a couple of years ago. Not only was Fisher game-planning poorly and failing to motivate his team, but he was also responsible for orchestrating one of the worst draft-day deals of all time, trading the farm for Jared Goff when numerous members of the organization wanted Carson Wentz instead. Then, Fisher demoted Goff behind some scrub named Sean Mannion when the rookie predictably sucked in the preseason, destroying his confidence. Fisher was a train wreck, but the Rams can finally move forward with someone who doesn’t still coach like it’s 1999.
Unfortunately for the Rams, they still have to deal with Goff, who has been a complete disaster. Goff was a system quarterback in college, so it’s no surprise that he doesn’t know how to play football right now. He’s enjoyed just one quality half in four starts thus far, while the rest of the action has been a disaster, comprised of inaccurate throws, poor reads and head-scratching turnovers. The thing is, Goff hasn’t even faced a great defense yet. He’s battled the Dolphins, Saints, Patriots and Falcons. New Orleans and Atlanta have soft stop-units, while Miami and New England have middling groups. He hasn’t confronted anything close to what Seattle possesses yet.
The Rams aren’t going to move the chains much in this game, and I’ll be shocked if they eclipse 200 net yards of offense. The Seahawks’ defense isn’t at full strength because of Earl Thomas’ absence, but Thomas won’t be missed much versus Goff.
SEATTLE OFFENSE: Fisher is gone, and Gregg Williams should be next, as his defensive schemes have been solved by NFL teams years ago. Williams loves to blitz recklessly, so it’s no wonder that opposing teams beat his stop unit by throwing screens and running other gadget plays. The Seahawks will almost certainly have those prepared.
Los Angeles’ defense isn’t at full strength either. Robert Quinn is considered questionable heading into this game after missing the past two weeks. It’s unclear if Quinn will be able to suit up, as he’s trying to clear concussion protocol, but the Rams will need him on the field to fully expose left tackle George Fant. Either way, Wilson will still have to deal with Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers rushing from the interior. Fortunately for Wilson, he has talented center Justin Britt available to block one of them.
Wilson, of course, threw five interceptions at Green Bay. Three weren’t his fault, but he’ll almost certainly rebound. Wilson is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and elite signal-callers tend to bounce back off their worst performances. He’ll have an opportunity to do so against a Rams defense that is undisciplined.
RECAP: The Rams have owned the Seahawks in recent meetings, but I can’t imagine them winning this game. Staying close will also be an issue because of the Fisher firing. Axing Fisher is good long term, but the Rams will have to put together a quality game plan in three days without their head coach, which doesn’t sound feasible at all. Besides, the better team usually covers on Thursday, so Los Angeles was already behind the eight ball.
I usually don’t bet favorites, especially large ones like this, but I’m going to make an exception here. Fifteen points seems daunting for me, until I recall that the Rams are discombobulated rigt now, and Goff doesn’t exactly have what it takes to right the ship amid chaos. I’m only going to make this a unit wager because special-teams nonsense or fluky fumbles could sway the ATS outcome the other way, but the Seahawks seem like the right side.
I’ll be posting NFL Picks all day Tuesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is now up to -16. I still kind of think that’s too low. For those blindly betting the Rams because of how high the number is, let me give you a bit of a warning. Underdogs of 16-plus in the past 25 years are 39-30 against the spread, which may seem good, but in divisional games, they’re just 19-18. Thus, just blindly betting a huge dog like this is effectively a 50-50 proposition. You might as well bet on the coin flip in the Super Bowl!
FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread was taken down to -15, so there was a touch of sharp action just taking a flier on a big number. I guess they didn’t read my Thursday Thoughts! This line has been creeping up a bit – it’s now -15.5 in most places – but BetUS still has -15 available. Either way, I’m sticking with my one unit on the Seahawks. I’m not buying this narrative that the Rams own Seattle. The Seahawks overlooked them twice last year, and Russell Wilson was hurt in the Week 2 matchup. Wilson is fine now, and I expect him to rebound off his worst start ever.
The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.
The Rams just fired their head coach with three days to prepare for one of the best teams in the NFL.
The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
Slight lean on the host.
The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Seahawks 23, Rams 3
Seahawks -15 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 38.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 24, Rams 3
Miami Dolphins (8-5) at New York Jets (4-9)
Line: Dolphins by 3. Total: 38.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Dolphins -1.
Saturday, Dec 17, 8:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Dolphins.
OVERRATED-UNDERRATED: I posted betting trends and such in this spot over the past couple of years, but I won’t be doing that as much because I’ll be moving away from trends. Instead, I’ll list some underrated observations that the media either isn’t discussing or is misinforming the public about. I think I’ll do this in conjunction with overrated and underrated teams…
Underrated NFL Teams:
Overrated NFL Teams:
MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins received some good news when it was ruled that Ryan Tannehill sprained his ACL and MCL instead of tearing those ligaments. Still, Miami will have to start Matt Moore to close out the season. While many don’t think the drop-off from Tannehill to Moore is quite substantial, I don’t know if that’s necessarily true.
Once upon a time, I liked Moore as a backup. He did a solid job for the Dolphins in 2011, throwing for 16 touchdowns compared to nine interceptions and completing 60.5 percent of his passes in the process. However, Moore hasn’t taken a meaningful snap in five years, and he’s currently 32. It’s quite possible that his skills have diminished in the meantime. It’s also noteworthy that he doesn’t have the same mobility Ryan Tannehill possesses, which could be important considering the state of his offensive line. Mike Pouncey is out again, while right guard Jermon Bushrod is performing very poorly. Left tackle Branden Albert has struggled as well, as he’s not 100 percent because of an injury he hasn’t recovered from. The Jets’ defensive line still has some players who can pressure the passer, so Moore is bound to take some sacks.
That said, the Dolphins will be able to move the chains on the ground, as New York’s run defense has been gashed in recent weeks. The only person who stopped Carlos Hyde this past Sunday was Chip Kelly, who for some reason gave Hyde just 17 carries in five quarters of action despite never trailing. Miami’s smarter coaching staff will make sure to pound the rock with Jay Ajayi early and often.
NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets, of course, have their own quarterbacking problems. Bryce Petty led a nice comeback against the 49ers, but his team was in a hole against a 1-11 team in the first place because of his own incompetence. Making matters worse, it’s clear that Brandon Marshall is just a decoy at this point; Marshall was banged up last week and could barely move around.
Petty loves throwing to Robby Anderson, and he’s been able to do so in a game-and-a-half because he’s battled poor defensive backfields. Fortunately for Petty, the Dolphins don’t have one either. Their linebacking corps is very shaky as well because Kiko Alonso is banged up. What Miami does have is a superb pass rush, led by Cameron Wake and Ndamukong Suh, who will be going up against an injury-ravaged offensive line. I have no idea how Ben Ijalana is going to block Wake. Ijalana is a guard playing left tackle!
It doesn’t sound like Matt Forte will play either, but the Jets at least have a quality reserve at the position in Bilal Powell, who had a huge game against the 49ers. Powell could repeat his performance versus the Dolphins, who haven’t done a good job of stopping the run this season.
RECAP: I liked the Jets at +3, and I was going to consider a two-unit wager on them. I don’t agree with the Dolphins being favored by three on the road like this. Not with Moore starting for them. Aside from the Monday night blowout, the Jets have been playing competitively, as they even nearly beat the Patriots at home in Week 12. They almost upset Miami on the road as well three weeks beforehand. I realize this was with Ryan Fitzpatrick, but it’s not like Fitzpatrick is that much better than Petty. Both are pretty horrible.
I saw this spread open +3 on Sunday night. I looked at the odds about an hour later, and all of the +3s were gone. The sharps pounded the Jets rather quickly, and now we get to choose from +2s and +2.5s, which doesn’t sound nearly as appealing.
I’m still taking the Jets at +2.5, as my personal spread is +1. Unfortunately, this is a non-wager.
SportsLine’s Micah Roberts is 22-6 in college football Over-Under picks this season (+1534 profit). He’s also won his last 5 NFL Over-Under picks. You can get all of his plays by visiting SportsLine.com.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is still +2.5, as it appears as though the +3s we had available for a few hours aren’t returning. It’s a shame, as this game doesn’t seem very bettable at +2.5. I am considering the Jets as one leg of a teaser, however, as your best odds of converting on a teaser is to take an underdog of 1.5 to 2.5 points and going through a touchdown. I’ll post my teaser Saturday evening.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I said I wanted a +3, and we got one at Bovada – albeit with -115 juice attached. That’s fine, and I think New York is worth a one-unit wager at that price (I would not bet +2.5). I don’t see why the Dolphins would be field-goal road favorites in a divisional rivalry, especially considering that as a warm-weather team, they’ll be playing in the cold. I think it also helps that the Dolphins need this win, so they could choke as many teams like them have done in the past. That said, I won’t go above a unit because it’s always possible that the Jets could be a complete no-show.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
A decent lean on the Dolphins.
The Trends. Edge: Jets.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Dolphins 21, Jets 20
Jets +3 -115 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$115
Over 38.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Dolphins 34, Jets 13
Detroit Lions (9-4) at New York Giants (9-4)
Line: Giants by 4.5. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Giants -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Giants -2.5.
Sunday, Dec 18, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Lions.
VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot in coming weeks. Here were the five highest-bet sides, as of Tuesday morning last week:
Those teams went a ridiculous 5-0 ATS, bringing the overall record this season to 32-28-1. Once again, the sportsbooks took an absolute pounding, and it only got worse Monday night when they were middled. I’m quite serious when I say that there could be some bodies buried in the desert this week. Vegas has now lost big four weeks in a row, which I’ve never seen before. I doubt any of the oddsmakers are reading this, but on the off chance that they are, I implore them to stop posting such tight lines that have made handicapping almost impossible since the beginning of November.
Here are the highest-bet teams in Week 14, as of Tuesday morning:
The Falcons and Texans are playing the 49ers and Jaguars, who have murdered the books in recent weeks. It’s nice to see that Vegas finally inflated a spread against San Francisco.
DETROIT OFFENSE: There’s much concern regarding Matthew Stafford’s dislocated finger, and people are naturally comparing it to Derek Carr’s issue after the Oakland quarterback struggled so much Thursday night. There are two key differences between the two situations, however. The first is that Stafford dislocated his middle finger, which is a lot less prevalent than the pinky finger, according to Matt Hasselbeck. I made sure to carefully re-watch Stafford’s throws in the second half versus the Bears, and while he was off on a couple of passes, he mostly seemed like himself. And second, Carr was playing in 25-degree weather. It’s expected to be in the high 40s in New York this Sunday. There seems like a chance of light rain, but as long as it’s not a downpour, Stafford should be fine.
It’ll help if Stafford is well protected against the Giants’ terrific pass rush. If Travis Swanson clears concussion protocol, I imagine that’ll be the case. Swanson is a terrific center who was out last week, and that was one of the reasons the Lions bogged down against the Bears. Swanson should be back, as he and Larry Warford figure to block Romeo Okwara and Snacks Harrison effectively. Meanwhile, the Lions should be fine on the edge; Jason Pierre-Paul’s absence won’t allow the Giants to expose right tackle Riley Reiff, while outstanding rookie left tackle Taylor Decker won’t be a liability against Olivier Vernon.
The Lions will do what they usually do, which is grind out opposing teams by controlling the clock. Stafford will do this by constantly converting third downs with intermediate throws. Eric Ebron and Theo Riddick have especially great matchups against the New York linebackers, who can’t cover.
NEW YORK OFFENSE: Even if Stafford struggles a bit with his glove, he’ll still probably be better than Eli Manning, who is extremely fortunate that his defense bailed him out yet again last week. Manning was awful Sunday night, as he had three easy interceptions that were dropped. The Giants did nothing all evening, save for a short slant pass that Odell Beckham Jr. took the distance for 61 yards.
Beckham is good for one of those each game, and he could certainly have one versus Detroit. However, the Lions will have one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL, Darius Slay, shadowing Beckham, so I don’t expect Beckham to go off. The same goes for the other New York receivers, as No. 2 cornerback Nevin Lawson is also performing on a high level. Meanwhie, DeAndre Levy’s return is huge. Levy isn’t completely 100 percent, but he provided a big boost for the Lions this past week.
The primary concern for the Giants’ offense, save for Manning’s woeful play, is the blocking. The New York tackles have struggled all year, and it could be a long afternoon for them versus Ziggy Ansah and Kerry Hyder.
RECAP: I love the Lions this week. So much so that they are once again my NFL Pick of the Month.
This spread is just as bad as the Detroit-New Orleans line was. The Saints, if you recall, were -6 over the Lions despite the two teams being considered equal at the time. We know better now, and if the two teams were matched up again in the same situation, New Orleans would probably be favored by two instead. As for this game, I made this number Giants -2.5. I consider the Lions to be slightly better than New York, so I have no idea where this -5 number came from.
Wait, I do know. It’s because of what happened Sunday night. The Giants defeated the 11-1 Cowboys, and now the public is impressed even though Dallas has not played well recently and may have lost to the Vikings if Adam Thielen didn’t muff a punt in the fourth quarter. As a result, this line jumped up 1.5 points from the advance spread, which is just ridiculous, considering that New York would’ve lost had Dallas snatched some of Manning’s horrible passes that easily could’ve been intercepted. Think about it this way: Had the Cowboys caught just one of those picks and won, what would this line be? And how about if Dallas picked off Manning on all three occasions and won by double digits as a consequence? What would this spread be then? My guesses are -3.5 and -3, respectively, which would still be off the mark, as far as I’m concerned.
The Giants have a horrible offense and haven’t been able to distance themselves from competent teams this year. Their victories against teams not named the Browns and Rams have been by 1, 3, 4, 5, 1, 6 and 3. The six was the result of the Bears losing Zach Miller and Josh Sitton in the middle of the game. Chicago actually had the lead in the third quarter of that contest.
Because of its poor offense, New York has covered only one home spread of more than three this year, and that was the four-point victory versus the Ravens, who, like the Bears, were winning in the second half when they lost some key players (Jimmy Smith, Terrell Suggs). The Giants haven’t been covering because they’ve been overrated all year. They’ve eked out victories against bad or injured teams, and even if they squeeze out another win this week, it’s likely that they won’t cover the spread.
The Lions, meanwhile, do nothing but play close games. A crazy stat I mentioned in my November NFL Pick of the Month is that the Lions have either been winning or trailing by one score in every single game since their blowout loss in London versus the Chiefs last year. They’ll be in position to either prevail or throw a back-door touchdown, and I love getting great quarterbacks for more than a field goal. Stafford has been amazing this year, so he qualifies. The finger dislocation might be a concern, but again, the middle finger means less than the pinky for quarterbacks, and it’s not going to be freezing like it was in Kansas City last Thursday. Barring a downpour, Stafford should be fine.
Again, this is my December NFL Pick of the Month, as I’m fading the Giants’ overrated hype train and once again betting the Lions heavily. Good luck to those of you who are betting with me.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The good news is, the sharps are pounding the Lions, bringing this spread down from +5 to +4. The bad news is that +5 is no longer available. I was hoping this spread would creep up like the Lions-Saints line. Still, it’s never a bad thing to be on the same side as the pros.
SATURDAY NOTES: Two injury updates I didn’t want to see happen occurred this week. Justin Pugh is returning for the Giants, while the Lions once again won’t have center Travis Swanson, who has been one of the top players at his position this year. I’ve actually thought about removing this as my NFL Pick of the Month, though I’m still pretty confident in Detroit covering. Another issue is that I wanted a better number than +4, but that’s all it is at CRIS right now (+3.5 elsewhere). The sharps have been pounding Detroit, but we’ve gotten worse line value as a result. I’m going to hold out for something better than +4, since that’s the most the Giants are capable of beating good teams by, but if this spread continues to shrink, I may make this “just” a five-unit wager. I’ll have updates Sunday morning.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I wanted to hear some pre-game reports on the weather and Matthew Stafford’s finger. The weather is in the mid-50s, and while there’s a chance of rain, it’s just overcast in New York right now. As for the finger, I thought it was encouraging that Stafford was catching passes and not showing any signs of pain. Stafford is a tough dude, so I think he’ll be ale to play well through this injury. Even if he’s not completely 100 percent, I still find it difficult to believe that the Giants are going to beat a solid team by five or more points, given that they’ve done it just once this year, and that occurred because two of Baltimore’s best defensive players went down. Sure, the Giants beat the Cowboys, but the Vikings nearly did as well the previous week, and probably would have if Adam Thielen didn’t muff a punt. Had Minnesota won, no one would’ve thought New York’s win would’ve been overly impressive. This should be a close game decided by a field goal, so I still love Detroit. This line is +4.5 at 5Dimes.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: Giants.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Lions 16, Giants 13
Lions +4.5 (8 Units – December NFL Pick of the Month) — Incorrect; -$880
Under 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Giants 17, Lions 6
Philadelphia Eagles (5-8) at Baltimore Ravens (7-6)
Line: Ravens by 4.5. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Ravens -6.
Sunday, Dec 18, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Ravens.
If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a brand new weekly fantasy football contest. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest – the Week 15 contest has already been posted, so good luck!
PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Baltimore’s defense was a disappointment Monday night, especially when it blew a coverage on Chris Hogan’s 75-yard touchdown to ultimately give the Patriots the push, but the stop unit actually had been doing a good job on Tom Brady prior to Jimmy Smith’s ankle injury. Brady caught fire in the wake of Smith’s absence, which wasn’t a surprise because of how important Smith is to the defense.
Smith is considered questionable heading into this contest, but the Ravens may not need him as much, considering that the Eagles have mediocre receivers. Jordan Matthews is a sketchy No. 1 at best, while Dorial Green-Beckham is banged up. Zach Ertz is coming off a big game, but the Ravens typically handle tight ends pretty well, so I don’t think he’ll be able to repeat what he accomplished against the Redskins.
The Eagles won’t be able to pass protect for Carson Wentz very well either, especially if Brandon Brooks is out again. Without Brooks, the interior of the offensive line has struggled immensely, and it won’t be able to block Timmy Jernigan. The Eagles won’t create much of a push for Ryan Mathews, who won’t be able to find much running room.
BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens’ scoring unit was difficult to watch Monday night, as Joe Flacco responded to New England’s blitzes by dinking and dunking most of the evening. He took some deep shots. One was dropped; another was picked; and a third was miraculously completed. I imagine Flacco will have more success versus the Eagles and their horrible group of cornerbacks, who haven’t been able to cover anyone all year.
Flacco should have plenty of time in the pocket as well. Philadelphia’s best pass-rusher, Brandon Graham, has been dominant this year, but has a difficult matchup against Ricky Wagner. Fletcher Cox could be the Eagles’ best chance of rattling Flacco, exposing the one liability Baltimore has up front in right guard Vladimir Ducasse or Alex Lewis.
Meanwhile, the Eagles have contained rushing attacks pretty effectively this year, so I wouldn’t expect much from Kenneth Dixon on the ground. However, Dixon could be effective as a receiver coming out of the backfield; he saw a whopping 11 targets at New England. It’s nice that the Ravens are finally making use of their dynamic running back instead of feeding wasted touches to Terrance West.
RECAP: This is a tough game to handicap because the spread is set perfectly. I made it -6, and that’s exactly what Vegas has.
I could easily see this going either way. Gun to my head, I’m taking the Ravens. They’re obviously the better team, as the Eagles haven’t won or covered the spread since Week 10. However, Baltimore typically plays close games, so I could see Wentz throwing a back-door touchdown to beat the number. However, Philadelphia has played horribly for the most part on the road this year.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Ravens at -5.5 is a bit more appealing, especially in the wake of the news that Brandon Brooks is dealing with unfortunate mental problems. Baltimore seems to match up well with the Eagles. I’m a bit more confident in the host, but I’m not in a mindset where I want to bet the Ravens yet.
SATURDAY NOTES: I saw a cool stat today that said the Ravens are 7-0 straight up against rookie quarterbacks at home under John Harbaugh. It could be 8-0 with a Philadelphia cover, of course, but the Eagles have some major problems. They’re going to be using a fifth-string tackle in Isaac Seumalo, who is a natural guard. Meanwhile, guard Brandon Brooks is dealing with anxiety issues and may not play. Joe Flacco should be able to throw all over the Eagles’ poor secondary.
FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has been dropping because of sharp action on the Eagles. They’re perhaps recognizing that there are going to be heavy winds and perhaps some rain in Baltimore. The wind is a big deal, as Joe Flacco won’t be able to torch Philadelphia’s poor secondary. I considered switching this pick, but I don’t feel strongly either way about this game.
The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.
The Ravens have the Steelers after this game, and they’re coming off a tough loss in a game they hyped up. The Eagles, meanwhile, have the Giants next week.
The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.
The public doesn’t want to bet the Eagles.
The Trends. Edge: None.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Ravens 23, Eagles 16
Ravens -4.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Ravens 27, Eagles 26
Green Bay Packers (7-6) at Chicago Bears (3-10)
Line: Packers by 6. Total: 38.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -3.5.
Sunday, Dec 18, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Packers.
If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a brand new weekly fantasy football contest. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest – the Week 7 contest has already been posted, so good luck!
HATE MAIL: Losing a multi-unit pick on Thursday night has its perks. Take the following hate posts for example:
What’s up with the second guy calling me a fat pig? How rude. I might be fat, but I’m most definitely not a pig. The correct term, pal, is hog. I’m a fat hog.
Here’s someone else incorrectly calling me a fat pig:
Vegas actually got middled on the New England-Baltimore game and lost a ton of money in the process. I guess it’s ironic that someone who called me “Cherepoopsky” is talking out of his a**.
This is pretty f***ed up:
Wow. I like to have fun with these, but anyone making light of domestic violence is the true scumbag. I’m serious about this Taylor guy having serious mental issues. He’s just a horrible person.
This person isn’t horrible. But he thinks he’s cool:
I can’t get over how impressive that “yo” is. I mean, I didn’t think much of him, but when I saw that “yo,” I was like, holy s***, the coolness of this guy is off the charts!
Anyway, here are two more:
To Anon and others who hate: If you want to be a successful hater, please do your research. You just look dumb if you post incorrect facts like this.
And to finish this off, I have to point out one douche who contacted me via Facebook:
I’m not sure what lesson I was supposed to learn in a game that ended up being a push. What’s more puzzling is that he contacted me Saturday night and hinted that he liked the Ravens:
This whole thing started because he criticized me for betting the Texans moneyline:
Again, I’m not clear what lesson I’m supposed to learn, but Ross Avila should learn not to be such a dick.
GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers has vowed that the Packers will win their remaining games, so I guess that’s almost certain to happen. However, Rodgers sustained a calf injury against the Seahawks and was hobbling around. He still threw very well, but he had absolutely no mobility.
As a result, it’s going to be incredibly important for the Packers to pass protect well. They did so last week, but they face a tough test against a Chicago front that puts great pressure on opposing passers. I don’t think Pernell McPhee and Leonard Floyd will have much success against a pair of prolific tackles, but Akiem Hicks might in the interior, as the guards are the weak spots.
In the back end of the defense, the Bears have a couple of young cornerbacks in Bryce Callahan and Cre’von LeBlanc who have performed above expectations this year. However, it was Tracy Porter who shut down Jordy Nelson in the first meeting. The Bears will have some success against the Packer wideouts, but Rodgers will obviously engineer several scoring drives regardless.
CHICAGO OFFENSE: It’s pretty amazing how well Matt Barkley has played in relief of Jay Cutler. Barkley was actually the best quarterback on Arizona’s roster this summer based solely on preseason play, but he was so horrible for the Eagles that I still find it astonishing that he’s been able to play competently.
Barkley probably wishes that he could’ve battled the Packers with a full week of preparation about a month ago when the secondary was struggling. The defensive backfield still has its flaws, but has been better in recent games. To counter that, Chicago’s receiving corps is also improved, as Alshon Jeffery is returning from his four-game suspension. Barkley should be able to generate some consistent drives by throwing to Jeffery and Cameron Meredith, as Green Bay’s pass rush doesn’t appear to have any overwhelming matchup edges.
The Bears, of course, will attempt to establish the run with Jordan Howard. They’ve been successful in this regard recently. It appeared as though Thomas Rawls was going to have a big game at the Packers last week, but wasn’t able to carry the ball very much because Seattle was faced with an early deficit, thanks to Russell Wilson’s interceptions.
RECAP: Maybe I’m way off here, but when I was making my own spreads before seeing what Vegas posted, I was deciding between -3.5 and -4. I was shocked when I saw -6.5. This means that the Bears would be about 12-point underdogs in Green Bay, which seems insane to me.
The Packers were -4 on the advance line. That’s more logical. Green Bay being -6.5 is an overreaction to what we saw last week. Sure, the Packers destroyed the Seahawks, but did so because of numerous fluky Wilson interceptions. They probably won’t be as lucky against the Bears, who have been very competitive with Barkley under center.
I’m betting two units on Chicago. This spread is off by three points, and Rodgers isn’t 100 percent. If I had more faith in Barkley, this would be a much larger wager, but despite his relatively high level of play thus far, I still need to see more.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is going to be the first pick I lock in. The sharps pounded the Bears, dropping this line from +6.5 to +5.5, but +6 is still available at Bovada. I’m not surprised at all that the pros recognized that this spread was way too high.
SATURDAY NOTES: There will be sub-zero temperatures in Chicago on Sunday afternoon, which figures to supress scoring and could make Aaron Rodgers’ balky calf even more troublesome. This line is way too high, and I’m glad I locked it in at +6, since the line has dropped to +5.5 in most places. You can still get +6 at Bovada.
FINAL THOUGHTS: ESPN just ran a stat saying Aaron Rodgers is 0-3 in single-digit temperatures, which makes sense because it’s difficult to throw in cold weather, and the Packers haven’t had a strong running game too often. This spread has dropped to +4.5 in most books, thanks to sharp action on Chicago. A +5 -105 is available at Bovada. I’d take the Bears for a unit at that number; I’d need +6 to go two units.
The Psychology. Edge: Bears.
The Packers are coming off a big win. Following this game, they have to battle the Vikings and Lions. This is Chicago’s Super Bowl.
The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
Tons of action on the Packers.
The Trends. Edge: Packers.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Packers 21, Bears 17
Bears +6 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 38.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 30, Bears 27
Indianapolis Colts (6-7) at Minnesota Vikings (7-6)
Line: Vikings by 5.5. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Vikings -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Vikings -3.
Sunday, Dec 18, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: None.
I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.
Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:
1. As you may know, I’ve lost tons of money and Supercontest picks on the Rams this year. It’s made no sense to me. Sure, Jeff Fisher used countless resources – five years, crazy draft trades – to assemble the worst offense of all time, but they have a terrific defense and should’ve been able to hang within some of these high spreads. Even when they were the clear righ side, like they were versus the Dolphins, they’ve failed to cover.
I’ve been utterly confused about this – until Awesome Kelly from Arizona informed me that Kenny Britt, Lance Kendricks and some guy named Chase Reynolds are on some E! TV show called Hollywood and Football.
Hollywood and Football!?!>?!???!>? Wow, sounds so awesome!!! I can’t believe I’ve missed watching this show!!! I don’t think I can live with myself because I missed the premiere!!! My palms are sweating in anticipation of watching this incredible show!!!
In case all of the exclamation points didn’t give it away, I was being a bit sarcastiball there. See, this is the exact problem of having a team in Los Angeles. There are too many damn distractions like this E! TV show bulls***, and it’s not like the fans care at all. I recall Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal pining for a team in Los Angeles, but prior to the Atlanta blowout, they were complaining that the Rams are too boring. I imagine many other Hollywood types felt this way, which is so stupid because the Rams have an incredible defense that I find fun to watch. That Dolphins-Rams game, despite it being 10-0 the entire time, was a blast. Aaron Donald, Michael Brockers and Robert Quinn were absolutely crushing Miami, and it was very entertaining.
Instead of having a fan base that appreciates them, the Rams are playing in front of either empty seats or fake people who can’t handle the slightest bit of heat. Now, the players are distracted by being on dumb TV shows no one cares about. I can’t imagine the Rams ever having success in Los Angeles for this reason.
2. Speaking of the Rams, I have yet to discuss Jeff Fisher’s recent press conference. Fisher admitted to the media that he doesn’t follow football players and didn’t really have an idea who was on the Patriots. Asked to name a running back on New England, Fisher said that Danny Woodhead is “a play-maker for the Patriots.”
Unreal. Not only is Woodhead not on the Patriots, but he’s been on injured reserve since Week 2. He hasn’t been a play-maker for anyone.
I don’t know how Fisher wasn’t fired on the spot. If I owned a team and heard my head coach like that, I would be completely embarrassed. How can a head coach not know the starters of a team he’s set to battle that week? Is Fisher not watching film whatsoever? If not, what’s he doing in his spare time, conjuring up more horrible draft trades? Stuffing random things into his coat so he can’t find his red challenge flag? Counting the amount of hairs on his mustache?
I didn’t think Stan Kroenke would do anything about it because he doesn’t care if the Rams win or lose, but he actually did manage to finally fire Fisher. Check out my Jeff Fisher firing grade here.
3. Moving to a completely unrelated topic, I’ve always given Matt Millen a lot of grief, and justifiably so. However, he’s not the only one who has made strange, sexual references about men recently. Check out this quote from Charles Davis:
“There’s a new emphasis on guys piling on each other. They don’t want anyone pulling anything.”
I do like Davis, and I have to say that I commend him for battling Millen. You see, while this initially looks like a grotesque statement Millen would make, Davis actually pleads for the guys not to pull anything, while Millen would be highly in favor of it.
If you think I’m just rambling at this stage and not really making any points, you could be right. Then again, if Davis were to meet an untimely demise, I think we’d all know who was responsible. Hint, his first and last names begin with the letter “M!”
INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts managed just 17 points last week after posting 41 on the Jets on a Monday night. Perhaps they were overconfident as large home favorites, though Jadeveon Clowney’s presence had something to do with it. Clowney destroyed the Indianapolis offensive line and rattled Andrew Luck as a result. It also didn’t help that Jack Mewhort was lost during the game.
Mewhort is out for the season, but I’ve always said that it’s very difficult for coaches to make in-game adjustments to key players, especially offensive linemen. The Colts will be more prepared for Mewhort’s absence, but the right side of the offensive line will still struggle to block Danielle Hunter. That said, I still expect Luck to hit some big plays. Stud safety Harrison Smith will be out with an ankle sprain, and without him last week, Blake Bortles looked semi-competent in meaningful action. That’s saying a lot, and if Bortles can do well in non-garbage time, Luck should have even more success.
The Colts figure to establish a decent running game as well. The Vikings have missed Sharrif Floyd all year, and now it’s official that they won’t have him at all because he was placed on injured reserve. Minnesota has allowed some big runs without Floyd, so Frank Gore should be able to pick up some decent gains.
MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings moved the chains well in between the 20s against the Jaguars, which is more impressive than it sounds because Jacksonville has been playing good defense lately. However, Minnesota won by nine instead of 29 because it constantly bogged down in the red zone. The team had three attempts from the 1-yard line on separate drives, and only came away with seven points on those occasions!
I see no reason why something similar won’t happen this week. Sam Bradford figures to play well, as Stefon Diggs will have his way with Vontae Davis, who is so injured that he should be shut down. Indianapolis doesn’t have much as far as a pass rush is concerned, but Trent Cole has a huge matchup advantage over T.J. Clemmings, though the same could be said for every single edge rusher Clemmings has battled thus far. Bradford can make up for this liability by checking it down to Jerick McKinnon, who will dance circles around Indianapolis’ horrible linebackers.
However, I’m not confident in Minnesota’s ability to punch the ball into the end zone once it gets near the goal line. The team has been miserable in short yardage all year, even when playing poor defenses.
RECAP: We had a big overreaction to the Colts’ victory on Monday night when the books listed them as a six-point favorite over the Texans. That line should’ve been -3 or so. Here’s another overreaction. People were burned on Indianapolis, so the oddsmakers made the other team too big of a favorite in response.
This spread is off by 1.5 points, and we’re going through two key numbers, including the most prominent one. I made this spread -3. With Harrison Smith out, the Vikings and Colts are very similar, and I don’t think Minnesota should be laying more than a field goal. The Vikings struggle to score anyway, so I don’t like their chances of covering sizable spreads against competent teams.
I’m taking the Colts for four units. Fading overreactions is always great, and I love getting terrific quarterbacks at more than a field goal, and that’s exactly what’s happening in this game.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There were some +4.5s that popped up, but they were quickly bet down to +4. I’m still strong on the Colts.
SATURDAY NOTES: I’ve been asked my thoughts on this game now that Adrian Peterson is back. My pick is unchanged. Peterson will be eased into action and probably won’t receive the full workload. He’ll convert short-yardage situations better than Matt Asiata, but as a whole, Minnesota’s offensive line will likely continue to struggle to block. Recall that Peterson wasn’t very effective when he was playing back in the first two weeks of the season. I’ll gladly take the extra line value with the Colts. I’m holding out hope that this gets to +6.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Can we get a +6? Please? That’s what I’m hoping for, but it’s not happening yet. BetUS has this listed at +5.5.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: None.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Vikings 19, Colts 17
Colts +5.5 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Colts 34, Vikings 6
Cleveland Browns (0-13) at Buffalo Bills (6-7)
Line: Bills by 10. Total: 42.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bills -10.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bills -9.
Sunday, Dec 18, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Bills.
As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.
Random College Football Notes:
1. Congratulations to Lamar Jackson for winning the Heisman, even though he… somehow… didn’t… know… he’d… win… Yeah, we weren’t buying it. My fiancee laughed at his speech.
“Yeah, OK, you didn’t win, Mr. Red Velvet Suit!” she bellowed.
I kind of find it far-fetched that Jackson didn’t have a strong idea he was going to win the Heisman. Then again, it was the most boring Heisman race in recent memory. I actually agree with Charlie that Alabama’s Jonathan Allen should’ve prevailed because he was the best player in the country this past season, but meh. I’m OK with Jackson winning it.
I do have to wonder what Johnny Manziel said to Jackson as the two were embracing on stage. Some speculate that Manziel said, “Drinks on me tonight.” I personally could’ve sworn he said, “I have Fruity Pebbles that you can insert into your anus.” Then again, Manziel could’ve said, “Hey man, don’t royally f*** up your pro career like I did by being a complete dumbass.” But that would require Manziel to have learned his lesson, which I can’t imagine him doing.
2. The NCAA has recently come out and declared that it wants an eight-team playoff, so that’s probably going to happen in the next few years. This is great and all, but I don’t get why the NCAA can’t do anything about it now. I think people have their head stuck up their own a**es far too often and don’t think outside the box enough. Why not make the change immediately? What’s the worst that’s going to happen? Is Nick Saban going to sound upset at his next press conference? Oh no, anything but that!
Eight teams is beyond necessary. Think about it this way: If NFL teams were voted into a four-team playoff prior to Week 14, the field probably would’ve looked like this:
1. Dallas
2. New England
3. Oakland
4. Seattle
Teams like the Chiefs, who just beat the Raiders; Steelers, who are hot with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger; and the Lions, who have obvious underdog appeal, wouldn’t have been included. Never mind the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos being left out of the field as well!
Four teams isn’t enough. I don’t think eight teams even are, but it’s better than four. For those citing that we’d be arguing about Teams 9-10 instead of Teams 5-6, to that I say, so what? Going back to the NFL scenario, we’re arguing the Chiefs and Steelers in a four-team field, but in an eight-team field, we’re discussing why teams like the Giants and Falcons weren’t included. Those teams are far less likely to win a championship than the Chiefs and Steelers, for example.
3. I made the grave mistake of not discussing the Dr. Pepper Giveaway Challenge last week. I was actually getting my hair cut during the challenge, so I didn’t get to see if the two doofuses competing for the $100,000 were throwing the ball sideways or not. This has been my primary criticism of the Dr. Pepper Giveaway Challenge. If the competition involves football, you shouldn’t be able to hurl balls around like an 85-year-old grandma.
At any rate, some guy from Ole Miss won the Dr. Pepper Giveaway Challenge. Good for him. It’s one fewer college idiot who will be protesting about going to school for free since, you know, he’ll actually be going to school for free. Of course, this dude happened to be attending Ole Miss, which I found humorous. Ole Miss pays its players to play, and now it has Dr. Pepper paying its students to attend school. Yeah, there are no sorts of ethics violations at that university!
CLEVELAND OFFENSE: I spent some time ranting about this in my NFL Game Recaps page, but I’ll do it again. I can’t believe the Browns are starting Robert Griffin. He’s the worst. He doesn’t study film, and he even had no idea that Terrelle Pryor had been enjoying a big year. He doesn’t care about football, so forget him starting; why is he even still in the league? Only the Browns…
The Bills have some obvious weaknesses in their secondary that Ben Roethlisberger couldn’t expose because of the snow. Griffin won’t be able to do so because he sucks. His accuracy is horrible – he was 2-of-10 for 20 yards in the first half last week! – and his timing is way off, as he has absolutely no football awareness. Cleveland has some major liabilities on the offensive line that Buffalo will be able to take advantage of, so Griffin will take some sacks, and he’ll do what he does best, which is fumble the ball away.
Of course, stopping the run is the bigger concern for the Bills. Le’Veon Bell trampled them in the snow last week, thanks to Kyle Williams’ absence. I briefly mentioned Williams in the first capsule. He was a surprise inactive an hour prior to kickoff, and Buffalo couldn’t adjust. Williams is a force up front, so without him, the Bills were much weaker versus the rush. He’s considered questionable with a back issue, though he won’t be needed as much because the Browns haven’t been able to run block very effectively since losing Joel Bitonio.
BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills have apparent quarterback concerns of their own, as there was some speculation that they would go to E.J. Manuel this week. Anyone who thinks the Bills should start Manuel over Tyrod Taylor should be stuffed into a rocket sent flying toward the sun because humanity would be better off without their stupidity. Manuel is absolute garbage and shouldn’t be starting for anyone in this league. He might make a good CFL player, but that’s about it. Taylor hasn’t played well either, but he hasn’t enjoyed a healthy Sammy Watkins for very long, and it’s not like he had much of a chance to put together a great performance in last week’s blizzard.
Taylor will be much better this Sunday. The Browns have an atrocious secondary, thanks to Joe Haden being completely ineffective because of injuries. The safeties, meanwhile, are somehow worse. Taylor should be able to connect with Watkins and Robert Woods for some deep gains.
The Bills will obviously attempt to establish LeSean McCoy, and they’ll definitely have success doing so. The Browns just surrendered 100-plus yards to Jeremy Hill, who hasn’t run well against anyone else since Giovani Bernard went down with a torn ACL. If Hill could enjoy a huge performance, imagine what the far-superior McCoy will do.
RECAP: I’ve been picking the Browns all year, so you might think I’m going to do so again. Even forum member JohnnyAllStar begged me not to put money on Cleveland this week.
Don’t worry, Johnny, I’m not going to. In fact, I’m actually picking the Bills to cover. I’d take the Browns for office-pool purposes if they were starting Cody Kessler, but Griffin is infinitely worse than the third-round rookie. Griffin is completely mailing in his career, so I would advise everyone not to bet on Cleveland as long as he’s starting.
That said, I wouldn’t bet Buffalo either. This spread is too high, and there’s always a chance the Browns could get a back-door score at the end. Also, the Bills have been knocked out of the playoffs, and Rex Ryan is a lame duck at this point, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they’ll mail this game in.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing has changed for me here, as the Bills are too unreliable to bet at double digits. Then again, the Browns haven’t lost by fewer than 10 points since Week 8, and Robert Griffin is the worst starting quarterback in the NFL, though he could be tied with Jared Goff. I’m not sure who’s worse.
SATURDAY NOTES: The Bills will be missing Cordy Glenn, and it’s possible that Kyle Williams could be out again. Under normal circumstances, I’d be fading a double-digit favorite with such injuries, but Robert Griffin is starting for the Browns, making Cleveland unbettable.
FINAL THOUGHTS: A line of -10 has just appeared at CRIS when this spread had risen to -10.5 elsewhere Sunday morning. Either way, I don’t think this game is very bettable. The favorite is laying too many points, while the underdog is too crappy.
The Psychology. Edge: Browns.
The Bills were effectively knocked out of the playoffs last week, and it sounds like Rex Ryan is a lame-duck coach.
The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
Slight lean on the Bills.
The Trends. Edge: Bills.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Bills 24, Browns 10
Bills -10 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bills 33, Browns 13
Tennessee Titans (7-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-3)
Line: Chiefs by 6. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -3.5.
Sunday, Dec 18, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: None.
If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Five years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.
I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for the 2013 season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses. In 2014, Donald Sterling answered spammers.
Last year, Tom Brady and his deflated footballs were involved. You can see those Spam Mails here with my responses to avoid clutter. I’ll have brand new spam mail responses every week!
TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Chiefs caught a big break to start the Thursday night game when it was announced that Kelechi Osemele was out. Of course, tragedy struck later when Derrick Johnson was lost with a torn Achilles, allowing Latavius Murray to gash Kansas City without his top offensive linemen. Imagine the sort of holes Murray would’ve seen had Osemele been on the field.
On second thought, I don’t think we have to imagine because we’ll see it first-hand when DeMarco Murray exposes Kansas City’s poor run defense this Sunday. The Titans just trampled the Broncos, and so I think their running game will pick up where it left off last week.
Johnson’s absence will help the passing game as well. The Chiefs have covered tight ends well all year, but that could change in the wake of Johnson’s injury. If so, Delanie Walker will have a solid performance, as Marcus Mariota figures to have ample time in the pocket to locate him. Kansas City’s edge rushers are elite, but the same could be said of Tennessee’s dynamic tackles, Taylor Lewan and Jack Conklin.
KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs will naturally attempt to establish the run as well with Spencer Ware, but the former LSU rusher won’t have nearly as much success as Murray. That’s because the Titans are exceptional against ground attacks.
Unfortunately for Tennessee, the secondary is a mess even though Brian Orakpo and Derrick Morgan put lots of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Titan cornerbacks are horrible, so I could see Tyreek Hill torching Tennessee on a couple of deep balls. Jeremy Maclin, who did nothing last week, figures to rebound as well.
The most dangerous player of all for the Chiefs, meanwhile, will continue to be Travis Kelce, who has yet another terrific matchup against a pedestrian linebacking corps. With all of these positive edges, Kansas City will undoubtedly engineer some successful scoring drives. However, I also expect the Chiefs to go into a shell at some point in this contest, as they are wont to do. Once that happens, it’ll allow the Titans to either take the lead or claw back into this contest.
RECAP: I was hoping for a better number than -5.5. This spread was -6 on the advance line, and the Chiefs had a big victory over the Raiders last Thursday. However, Tennessee’s win over Denver is keeping this line below six.
That said, I still think it’s too high. I made this number Chiefs -3.5. Kansas City struggles to cover large spreads against competent opponents, and I don’t see why this would be an exception. The offense isn’t explosive enough, and Andy Reid is way too conservative at times. The only team the Chiefs have beaten by more than one score as home favorites this year happens to be the Jets, and that was Ryan Fitzpatrick’s six-interception game.
I think the psychological factor also needs to be considered. The Chiefs have had 10 days to hear about how great they are in the wake of beating the Raiders. After this game, they battle the Broncos. I don’t think they’ll be completely focused.
I’m taking Tennessee for three units. Once again, I was hoping for +6, and if it shows up, I’ll adjust my unit count accordingly.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m still hoping for +6, but some +5s have begun to appear. I imagine the books are afraid of the sharps pounding +6 lines.
SATURDAY NOTES: We still haven’t seen a +6 line, but perhaps that’ll change Sunday morning. Unfortunately, Pinnacle is listing a +4.5 number, so I don’t think that’s going to happen. Pinnacle is the sharpest book out there, and it’s saying a lot that they’re asking for Kansas City action.
FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has risen to +6, which is what I’ve been looking for. This appears to be some professional money on Chiefs -5.5, but I doubt they’d take -6, since that’s a key number and the Kansas City games are often decided by six or fewer. I know it’s going to be very cold, and Marcus Mariota has never played in such conditions, but I think it’s good news for the Titans because it’ll emphasize the running game, and they’re better on the ground than Kansas City, both on offense and defense. As a result, I’m increasing this to four units.
The Psychology. Edge: Titans.
The Chiefs have had extra time where people have been telling them how great they are. Following the big win over Oakland, Kansas City could be flat here prior to their Week 16 matchup against the Broncos.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: None.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Chiefs 26, Titans 23
Titans +6 -105 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Over 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Titans 19, Chiefs 17
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) at Houston Texans (7-6)
Line: Texans by 3.5. Total: 39.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Texans -6.5.
Sunday, Dec 18, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Texans.
Video of the Week: I made fun of Barack Obama last week, so I suppose it’s only right to be fair. Maybe? I don’t know, but this video is great. And make sure you smoke some weed in advance (thanks, Luke T.):
Anyone else recognize the Mega Man X song before it actually flashed onto the screen? If so, you’re awesome.
HOUSTON OFFENSE: I bet the Texans +6 last week and had them on the moneyline as well, but I had to hold my breath every time Brock Osweiler dropped back to pass. Osweiler stares down receivers like a drunken man leering at a busty woman’s cleavage, and it’s going to cost him against a great defense in the playoffs. It might even cost him this week versus Jacksonville.
We don’t really need to speculate how Osweiler will play against the Jaguars because we’ve seen it recently. That was the game in which Osweiler couldn’t eclipse 100 passing yards. He went 14-of-27 for 99 yards in that game. He threw two touchdowns, but did so off Jacksonville turnovers. The Jaguar defense has improved markedly since its blowout loss at Tennessee on a Thursday night. The secondary in particular has been great, and it’ll clamp down on DeAndre Hopkins.
The Texans were able to move the chains last week in spite of Osweiler. Lamar Miller was great against Indianapolis’ skeleton-crew defense, but running effectively against the Jaguars will prove to be more difficult because they tend to be great against ground attacks.
JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Texans were able to win the first matchup against the Jaguars despite Osweiler’s horrific performance, thanks to the defense. Or, to be more precise, Blake Bortles’ incompetence. Bortles was guilty of two turnovers in that game, including an interception off of his teammate’s foot. Houston turned those give-aways into easy points.
Two turnovers have been the norm for Bortles, who has tallied exactly that amount in every game, save for one, since Week 10. It’s pretty amazing that Bortles can be so consistently horrible. It’s not all his fault because Allen Robinson is dogging it and the offensive line can’t block, but most of it is on Bortles, who refuses to work on his horrible mechanics and the mental part of his game.
Bortles will continue to struggle in meaningful action, as stud cornerback A.J. Bouye will take away Robinson. Meanwhile, Jadeven Clowney and Whitney Mercilus will abuse the pathetic tackles and hound Bortles all afternoon. The Jaguars won’t be able to respond with the run, as both Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon are banged up.
RECAP: Jacksonville’s defense will keep this game competitive, but in the end, it’ll be the same old story, as Bortles once again ruins another chance at victory. Bortles, however, will be able to throw a late touchdown to perhaps cover the spread. Whether that final score of his happens to bring the margin to within 3-4 or 6-7 remains to be seen. Either way, I don’t want to bet this game, as the spread of -6 happens to be almost exactly my calculated number (-6.5). If the Texans had more offensive firepower, I’d wager on them, but they’ll allow Bortles to hang around and perhaps fire a back-door cover in the final minutes.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This game still has zero betting appeal. The last time the Texans won by six or more was Week 8, and that was a fluky result. Still, the Jaguars will find some way to lose, and there’s definitely a good chance that they’ll be a no-show.
SATURDAY NOTES: Whitney Mercilus is out for the Texans, but that’s made up for by this shrinking line. The spread is down to -4.5 in most books. Unfortunately, that won’t stop Blake Bortles from covering if his back-door touchdown brings the margin to four points instead of six or seven. I wouldn’t touch the Jaguars, so it’s Houston or nothing.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps/Jaguar truthers are going wild here, betting Jacksonville down all the way to +3.5. If this line falls to +3, I will bet a unit or two on the Jaguars.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
The public is pounding the Texans.
The Trends. Edge: None.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Texans 20, Jaguars 13
Texans -3.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 39.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 21, Jaguars 20
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-7-1)
Line: Steelers by 3.5. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Steelers -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -3.
Sunday, Dec 18, 8:30 PM
Comment on this game
The Game. Edge: Steelers.
THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS
I’ve been citing that Tom Brady has lost his “clutch” ability over the past few years, but I guess I can’t do that any longer because he recently won his fourth Super Bowl. Or, can I…? Brady, after all, reached the “Big Game” with the help of his deflated footballs.
Brady was stuck on three Super Bowls for a long time before he resorted to cheating. So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona or tells a new story. Including this one…
Tom Brady was given a new mission from Donald Trump. He was told to visit the neighboring country and convince them to build a wall in case Trump loses to Hillary Clinton. Tom needs to do this to keep the Latin Kings out of the country. To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!
PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Despite playing in a blizzard last Sunday, the Steelers were unstoppable offensively because of Le’Veon Bell. A big part of that was Kyle Williams being ruled out an hour prior to kickoff, but Bell is obviously a mega talent and would’ve put together a great performance regardless.
Bell has a tougher matchup this week. The Bengals stop the run very well. However, Bell will still get some yardage on the ground, and he’ll be a big factor in the passing attack, as Ben Roethlisberger will utilize him, as well as Antonio Brown, Ladarius Green and Eli Rogers. The weather forecast is not projecting any snow, so Roethlisberger will rebound from last week’s underwhelming outing.
That said, I don’t think the Steelers will score on every possession, or anything like that. Cincinnati’s defense has improved markedly since the bye, surrendering just 16 points per game after allowing a figure of 23.6 beforehand. There are a number of reasons for this upgraded play, including Vontaze Burfict. The stud linebcker struggled coming off his suspension, but he’s been incredible recently. This is his first look at the Steelers this year, as he wasn’t on the field during the first matchup because of his ban.
CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals’ scoring attack isn’t as potent at the moment because of A.J. Green’s status, but the dynamic wide receiver is expected to practice Wednesday. Whether he returns from his hamstring injury this week remains to be seen, and even if he’s able to take the field, how possible is it that he won’t be very effective? Soft-tissue injuries are difficult to fully come back from right away.
I’m going to assume that Green either misses this game or doesn’t have much of an impact. In that case, it’ll be difficult for the Bengals to consistently generate scoring drives. Andy Dalton will be able to get something going with Tyler Eifert, as well as Jeremy Hill leaking out of the backfield. Pittsburgh’s linebackers aren’t playing all that well right now, so they have positive matchups.
That said, Tyler Boyd and Brandon LaFell aren’t exactly threatening, so the Steelers will play closer to the line of scrimmage. They just put the clamps on LeSean McCoy, so I don’t think they’ll have much of an issue stopping Hill. The one silver lining is that Pittsburgh doesn’t have the talent at outside linebacker to expose Cincinnati’s weakness at right tackle, as Bud Dupree hasn’t looked like himself since coming back from injury.
RECAP: The advance spread was Steelers -3. The advance spread I made was Steelers -3. My calculated line for this game was Steelers -3. And the oddsmakers made this Steelers -3.
The number is exactly where it’s supposed to be, so I’m torn. I considered picking the Steelers, but I think I’ll take the home underdog. The Bengals have played better lately, so it’s possible that I’m undervaluing them. Plus, this is going to be their Super Bowl. They’re going to throw the kitchen sink at the Steelers, who almost have to be more concerned with their matchup next week against Baltimore.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Bengals have appeared at +3.5 -115 at Bovada, which might be worth a unit. I’ll think about it, but I really like the idea of getting the hook in a game that very easily could be decided by a field goal.
SATURDAY NOTES: The Bengals are now available at +3.5 -110 at Bovada. I’m going to list them for a unit. The Steelers have not played well on the road this year. I know they won at Buffalo last week, but the Bills had Kyle Williams as a late scratch and lost Cordy Glenn in the first half. They didn’t have much of a chance after that. Cincinnati has been playing better defense lately and should be more competitive than banged-up Buffalo.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bengals are now +3.5 -115 at Bovada, but I’m still fine with my huge one-unit wager.
The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.
This is pretty much the Bengals’ Super Bowl. The Steelers play the Ravens next week. However, I don’t see Pittsburgh necessarily looking past Cincinnati.
The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
Tons of money on the Steelers, as usual.
The Trends. Edge: .
Week 15 NFL Pick: Steelers 22, Bengals 20
Bengals +3.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 44 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Steelers 24, Bengals 20
Week 15 NFL Picks – Late Games
San Francisco at Atlanta, New Orleans at Arizona, Oakland at San Diego, New England at Denver, Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, Carolina at Washington
Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
NFL Picks - Nov. 15
2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13
NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12
Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4
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2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
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2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
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2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
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2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
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2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
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2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 2-2 (+$65)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 1-3 (-$905)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2024): 6-7-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2024): -$435
2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)
2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 78-79-6, 49.7% (-$4,565)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 19-25-1, 43.2% (-$1,180)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 15-17, 46.9% (-$1,555)
2024 Season Over-Under: 76-74-2, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$165
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.
| Cowboys: 5-3 |
Bears: 4-5 |
Bucs: 6-4 |
49ers: 6-3 |
| Eagles: 4-5 |
Lions: 8-1 |
Falcons: 5-5 |
Cardinals: 8-2 |
| Giants: 3-6 |
Packers: 5-3 |
Panthers: 4-6 |
Rams: 4-5 |
| Redskins: 4-5 |
Vikings: 3-6 |
Saints: 5-5 |
Seahawks: 6-2 |
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| Bills: 3-7 |
Bengals: 2-8 |
Colts: 5-5 |
Broncos: 6-4 |
| Dolphins: 3-6 |
Browns: 3-6 |
Jaguars: 2-7 |
Chargers: 5-3 |
| Jets: 5-5 |
Ravens: 4-5 |
Texans: 4-6 |
Chiefs: 3-5 |
| Patriots: 5-3 |
Steelers: 3-6 |
Titans: 5-3 |
Raiders: 4-5 |
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| Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561) |
2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387) |
2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441) |
2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211) |
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446) |
2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293) |
Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185) |
Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37) |
2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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