NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 15, 2016

NFL Picks (Preseason 2016): 12-7-1 (+$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2016): 13-3 (+$1,735) full review
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2016): 9-7 (-$430) full review
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2016): 7-7-2 (+$880) full review
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2016): 7-8 (-$70) full review
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2016): 6-7-1 (+$115) full review
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2016): 7-7-1 (+$515) full review
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2016): 11-4 (+$1,560) full review
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2016): 8-4-1 (-$60) full review
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2016): 5-6-2 (-$1,170) full review
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2016): 9-4-1 (+$80) full review
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2016): 7-7 (+$225) full review
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2016): 5-10-1 (-$1,090) full review
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2016): 9-6 (-$205) full review
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2016): 7-8-1 (-$440)

NFL Picks (2016): 115-87-9 (+$2,935)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 19, 7:00 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 15 NFL Picks – Early Games

New Orleans Saints (5-8) at Arizona Cardinals (5-7-1)
Line: Cardinals by 3. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cardinals -2.5.
Sunday, Dec 18, 4:05 PM
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The Game. Edge: None.

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ARIZONA OFFENSE: I was convinced that an impostor was quarterbacking the Cardinals against the Redskins, and based on what we saw this past Sunday in Miami, I turned out to be right. Carson Palmer was horrible, throwing two interceptions and fumbling thrice. It wasn’t all his fault because the game was played in a torrential downpour, but Palmer has struggled all year, as it’s clear that he’s not the same quarterback.

Part of the problem for Palmer has been poor protection, thanks to injuries to Jared Veldheer and Evan Mathis. The former’s absence will be especially problematic in this matchup because D.J. Humphries somehow has to deal with Cameron Jordan, who has been performing on an All-Pro level this season. Palmer will see a ton of pressure as a result, so I’m sure Bruce Arians will have Palmer release the ball quickly. Palmer should have success connecting with Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson sneaking out of the backfield.

The Saints will at least be able to restrict Johnson on the ground. Believe it or not, but they’ve played the run very well this year. Granted, they haven’t gone up against too many dominant ground attacks, but the last time they did, they limited Carlos Hyde to just 14 yards on 13 carries back in Week 10.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Palmer isn’t the only quarterback who’s struggling. Drew Brees isn’t playing up to his ability, though his woes have been more recent and not prevalent throughout the entire year. Brees has thrown six interceptions in the past two weeks compared to zero touchdowns, which is simply unheard of for a quarterback of his caliber.

Under normal circumstances, I’d consider Brees likely to keep struggling because the Cardinals have lots of great defensive starters on their active roster. However, that’s not the case anymore because Arizona has incurred so many injuries. Tyrann Mathieu was already banged up, and now Tyvon Branch and Deone Bucannon are out. Those are three very key members of the linebacking corps and secondary. Assuming he has time in the pocket, Brees will be able to expose mismatches in Arizona’s defense.

Brees having ample time is a pretty big assumption, however. Max Unger was ruled out of last week’s game with a foot injury, and he’s considered questionable heading into this affair. Unger’s absence was absolutely huge versus the Buccaneers, as Tampa got all of its pressure on Brees up the middle. Brees hates interior pressure more than anything, so if Unger is out again, Calais Campbell is going to have a monstrous afternoon.

RECAP: I calculated this spread at -2.5, and that’s exactly what the books made it, despite the advance line being -3.5. I was really hoping to get the Saints at +3.5. Alas, that is not available.

Because the projected and actual spreads are the same, I’m torn on this game. I’m going to pick the Saints for now because of Arizona’s defensive injuries, but if it’s announced that Unger will be out, I’ll switch over to Arizona.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Max Unger was limited in Wednesday’s practice, so he might be able to play this week. If so, I think that would keep me on the Saints. I still don’t feel very strongly about this game, however.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m still waiting on Max Unger’s status, and sadly, we may not know until around 3 p.m. With the line now three, I’m a bit stronger on the Saints, but not enough to bet them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Still no news on Max Unger’s status. I’m going to stick with the Saints. The sharps bet the Cardinals at -2.5, but haven’t really touched them at -3.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Lots of money coming in on the Cardinals.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 66% (3,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Drew Brees is 47-29 ATS as an underdog.

Drew Brees is 39-25 ATS after a loss with the Saints (13-6 ATS as an underdog).

Cardinals are 27-14 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Cardinals are 28-12 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Bruce Arians is 35-28 ATS as head coach of the Cardinals.

Opening Line: Cardinals -3.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Cardinals 24, Saints 23
Saints +3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 48, Cardinals 41

San Francisco 49ers (1-12) at Atlanta Falcons (8-5)
Line: Falcons by 14. Total: 51.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Falcons -11.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Falcons -13.
Sunday, Dec 18, 4:05 PM
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The Game. Edge: Falcons.

This is a reminder to make your pick for the WalterFootball.com 2016 NFL Survivor Pool if you’re still alive! We had 2,430 entries to start, with 412 entering Week 7. We’re now down to 95, as we lost 21 players last week, thanks mostly to the Colts.

Make sure to check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Casual bettors pounding the Falcons this week apparently don’t think Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu are that important to the scoring unit. Both receivers are questionable, but based on the betting action, Joe Public doesn’t think their statuses matter, given that Atlanta just posted 42 points on the Rams.

Jones and Sanu definitely do matter, as the Falcons scored half of their points in Los Angeles on special teams and defense. They were pretty lethargic offensively, as they didn’t do much outside of Matt Ryan hitting Taylor Gabriel for a long play in busted coverage. Take that away, and Atlanta accumulated about only 240 net yards of offense.

Now, I realize the difference between the 49er and Ram defenses. Los Angeles has a stalwart front that harassed Ryan, while San Francisco doesn’t have any pass rush to speak of. The 49ers are also very weak against the run, so Devonta Freeman should have a solid rebound performance. However, without Jones and Sanu being healthy, Atlanta simply won’t have too many consistent offensive drives, as Ryan won’t have any viable downfield options, save for Gabriel, who is more of a gadget player than anything.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers lost several key members of their offense during last week’s loss to the Jets. Stud left tackle Joe Staley was already out, and center Daniel Kilgore (probably the second-best offensive lineman on the roster), Vance McDonald and Torrey Smith were all knocked out. Smith isn’t exactly a key member of the offense, but he’s a well-known name, so I thought it would look better if I listed him.

Kilgore and McDonald are out for the year. Staley has a chance to suit up, but he’s dealing with a hamstring, and you know how those things go by now. The 49ers will need a healthy Staley to block Dwight Freeney because they have no chance of keeping Vic Beasley out of the backfield.

Kilgore’s absence will be pretty impactful. The Falcons are very weak in the middle of their defense, and we even saw the Eagles expose them with Ryan Mathews back in Week 10. Carlos Hyde is San Francisco’s best, and only offensive play-maker, but his blocking is considerably worse with Kilgore out of commission. Colin Kaepernick, meanwhile, will continue to do stupid things until garbage time, when he’ll undoubtedly score a touchdown or two.

RECAP: I made this spread Falcons -11.5 before it was known that the 49ers lost Kilgore and McDonald for the year. I’ve bumped it up to -13 in response, which is still too high. The Falcons don’t have enough juice offensively to consistently cover a spread of two touchdowns without Jones being healthy. Besides, we’ve seen the 49ers get back-door scores in some games this year. Kaepernick is good at quarterbacking when teams stop trying, and I could see him sneaking within the number at the very end.

That said, I’m not betting this game unless it’s absolutely clear that Staley is completely healthy. He’s way too important to the 49ers, especially in the wake of their other injuries.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s so much public action on this game that Bovada, a square book, has refused to post a spread yet. Crazy. It’s 49ers or nothing, as far as I’m concerned, and I don’t want to bet on the 49ers.

SATURDAY NOTES: Joe Staley is out for the 49ers, so there goes any sort of possibility that I’ll be betting the 49ers. However, Julio Jones won’t be on the field either. I have no interest in betting this game; the Falcons can’t be used this week because they are the No. 1 bet team on Sunday, and Vegas has gotten crushed in four consecutive weeks.

FINAL THOUGHTS: If you really want to bet the 49ers, you can get +14 at BetUS, or even better +14 -105 at Bovada. I wouldn’t touch this game, personally.

SportsLine’s Micah Roberts is 22-6 in college football Over-Under picks this season (+1534 profit). He’s also won his last 5 NFL Over-Under picks. You can get all of his plays by visiting SportsLine.com.

The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.

I’m not sure how focused the Falcons will be against the sorry 49ers with two divisional battles coming up.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

No one is touching the 49ers.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 81% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Opening Line: Falcons -13.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Falcons 28, 49ers 17
49ers +14 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 51.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Falcons 41, 49ers 13

New England Patriots (11-2) at Denver Broncos (8-5)
Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Dec 18, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Patriots.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 9! Season 8 saw Emmitt going to North Korea to stop Kim Jong-un from destroying the world. It featured a mind-blowing twist at the very end that you absolutely need to check out if you haven’t already.

Season 9 will deal with election stuff, and it begins with something strange happening to Emmitt while he’s stuck in traffic at a protest rally. In the 14th chapter, the portal to the evil dimension is open, so can Emmitt save the love of his life in time?

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Tom Brady pretty much cemented the MVP award Monday night by throwing for 400-plus yards on the Ravens, but it must be noted that the bulk of his yardage came after Jimmy Smith’s injury. Smith, Baltimore’s No. 1 corner, was knocked out in the opening half. The Ravens had done a good job on Brady beforehand, but were completely incapable of stopping him afterward. As I’ve said before, the toughest thing coaches have to do is make in-game adjustments for key injuries, and Smith’s absence proved too much for Baltimore to handle.

As long as Aqib Talib and Chris Harris remain on the field, the Broncos should be able to handle Brady. Denver owns one of the top one-two tandems at cornerback, and it’s not like New England’s receivers are all that potent. Meanwhile, Ambassador Von Miller will be able to harass Brady, as I like his matchup against Marcus Cannon. The right tackle has inexplicably performed well this year, but Miller holds such a talent mismatch.

That said, the Patriots have some advantages of their own on this side of the ball. First, Denver struggles to defend the interior run, so LeGarrette Blount will continue to impressively pound the rock. And second, linebacker Brandon Marshall could be out for Denver again. The Broncos have missed Marshall and don’t really project to defend Martellus Bennett well without him.

DENVER OFFENSE: Brady will get his points, so it’ll be up to Trevor Siemian to match the future Hall of Famer on the scoreboard. It sounds impossible when I say it like that – until the fact that both Brock Osweiler and a decrepit Peyton Manning defeated Brady on this field last year is brought to light. It could be argued that Siemian is better than both, which really isn’t saying much.

The Broncos have struggled to score in many games this season, but not all of that is Siemian’s fault. His tackles have been very poor. Fortunately for Denver, the Patriots don’t have a very good pass rush. As a result, Siemian will have more time in the pocket than usual. I’m sure Bill Belichick and Matt Patricia will come up with creative blitz schemes to confuse the young quarterback, but Siemian is smart and will have great offensive coaching from Gary Kubiak to aid him.

Belichick is great at erasing the best aspect of an opposing team’s offense. I imagine he’ll take away one of Siemian’s receivers, while having Malcolm Butler smother the other. If so, the Broncos will mirror what the Ravens did Monday night by getting their running back involved in the passing game. That will be Justin Forsett, who has thrived in Kubiak’s offense in the past. Forsett has surpassed Devontae Booker on the depth chart, and rightfully so, as Booker has been very ineffective.

RECAP: This spread doesn’t make much sense to me. Well, I get it from a public bettor’s perspective, but I don’t agree with it. Think about it this way: Patriots -3 at Broncos would be Patriots -9 versus the Broncos in New England (probably more like -7.5 or -8), and that number is higher than what the Patriots were favored by over Baltimore. The Broncos are better than the Ravens, so the spread is wrong.

Here’s another way to look at it: The Patriots are No. 1 in my NFL Power Rankings. The Broncos are seventh. Does a team just six spots above another deserve to be a three-point road favorite without there being any major injuries involved? I don’t think so.

The Broncos are a big play for me. At worst, this is probably a push. The Patriots have a very dubious history of playing in Denver. Did you know that New England is just 2-7 straight up and against the spread on the road against the Broncos, and the only occasion in which it won by more than four was against Tim Tebow? Denver, for whatever reason, has had the Patriots’ number over the years in Mile High.

I wish we were getting an even better number – I thought this might come out at +3.5 in the wake of New England’s Monday night victory – but I still love the Broncos at +3. This is a four-unit play.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: A line of +3.5 -115 has popped up at Bovada, which I definitely prefer over +3 -110. As mentioned before, the Patriots have won in Denver by more than four just once in the Brady era, and the Patriots have battled Bronco teams far worse than this one.

SATURDAY NOTES: As with the Bengals, a +3.5 -110 line is available at Bovada. The Broncos look very good at that number. In fact, I’m moving this to five units. People have lost focus on how the Patriots have played since losing Rob Gronkowski. They’ve struggled to put away bad teams, and they weren’t doing anything offensively Monday night until Jimmy Smith left the game with an injury. The Broncos’ elite defense should keep this close, and the Patriots’ struggles in Denver over the years are definitely real.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I heard that one bookmaker expects this line to move back up to -3.5. It’s only -3 now, so I’m dropping this back down to four units. I’ll continue to monitor this though. i really wanted +3.5.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Take a guess where the bets are going.

Percentage of money on New England: 83% (27,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Tom Brady is 202-65 as a starter (147-107 ATS).

Tom Brady is 10-3 ATS as a favorite of fewer than 3 points. ???

Tom Brady is 2-7 ATS in Denver.

Opening Line: Patriots -3.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Patriots 21, Broncos 20
Broncos +3 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Under 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 16, Broncos 3

Oakland Raiders (10-3) at San Diego Chargers (5-8)
Line: Raiders by 2.5. Total: 50.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chargers -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Raiders -2.
Sunday, Dec 18, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Raiders.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is about my best friend’s wedding.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Chargers had no chance to win last week’s game in Carolina because Melvin Gordon was carted off the field on the second drive. Gordon was the centerpiece of San Diego’s scoring attack, and the offensive unit was completely discombobulated without him. The Chargers scored some points late, but it wasn’t nearly enough, and Philip Rivers was sacked in his own end zone when the margin was down to 10. That effectively ended the comeback.

The Chargers will have all week to prepare a game plan without Gordon, but I’m not sure what they’ll be able to do against Oakland’s pass-rushers. The Raiders will know that they won’t have to worry very much about Kenneth Farrow coming out of the backfield, so they’ll be able to tee off on Rivers, who is protected very poorly. Joseph Barksdale and Orlando Franklin were knocked out with injuries last Sunday as well, so they could be even less effective than usual. Khalil Mack will abuse the hell out of Barksdale, while Bruce Irvin will also win his matchup against struggling left tackle King Dunlap.

Rivers won’t have much time in the pocket. He hasn’t played very well anyway, and he’ll have to throw to two middling receivers in Dontrelle Inman and Tyrell Williams, who could have trouble getting open against Sean Smith and David Amerson, though the latter did struggle last Thursday. I like the matchups that Rivers’ tight ends have against the Oakland linebackers, but that’s about it.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Gordon wasn’t the only superstar who was knocked out of last week’s affair in Carolina. Joey Bosa was lost as well with what appeared to be a concussion. Bosa has since passed protocol, but has been diagnosed with a neck strain. Still, it sounds like he’ll be able to suit up, which is horrible news for the Raiders, given their issues at right tackle. Austin Howard, who was beaten like a rented mule against Justin Houston, will face similar treatment versus Bosa.

A more prominent injury on this side of the ball is Derek Carr’s dislocated pinky. Carr’s accuracy was atrocious against the Chiefs, as he failed to complete routine 3-yard passes. Of course, it was freezing in Kansas City, which affected his play greatly. It’ll obviously be much nicer in San Diego – the forecast is calling for 62 degrees and no precipitation – so Carr is likely to bounce back.

A greater issue for Carr could be Casey Hayward’s great coverage. Hayward has been one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL this year, and he’ll be able to erase one of Oakland’s stud receivers. He could blanket Amari Cooper in the wake of the news that Michael Crabtree is dealing with a dislocated finger of his own.

RECAP: I made this spread Raiders -2, and it’s currently -3, so there’s a little bit of value with the Chargers. However, my number assumes Bosa will play. If he doesn’t, I’ll likely change my pick to Oakland.

I don’t really see much of a betting opportunity here, unfortunately. The Chargers suck at home and won’t be the same without Gordon. I think they’ll have a good game plan prepared, knowing that they won’t have Gordon, but the way they’ve been going, they could easily sustain more injuries. Meanwhile, it’s uncertain how Carr will perform. We can speculate that he’ll be better with the time off, but it’s still an unknown.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds like Bosa will play, but Gordon will be out. That’s a bummer. I don’t want to bet on the Chargers without Gordon. Then again, laying three points on the road with an inconsistent Oakland squad doesn’t sound that great either.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m going to make a pick change. I don’t like the Chargers without Gordon, and with -2.5 available, I think the Raiders could be the right side. I’m not very confident, but recall that this +3 is not the same as other home dogs getting three this week because San Diego’s home-field advantage is terrible.

FINAL THOUGHTS: All of Oakland’s questionable players will reportedly be on the field. That’s good, but I still don’t feel strongly about this game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

The public is still on the Raiders bandwagon.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 84% (1,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Raiders have won the last 3 meetings (Raiders 10-5 ATS last 15).

Philip Rivers is 34-24 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (16-10 ATS as an underdog).

Opening Line: Raiders -3.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Raiders 26, Chargers 22
Raiders -2.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 50 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Raiders 19, Chargers 16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5) at Dallas Cowboys (11-1)
Line: Cowboys by 7. Total: 47.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -9.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cowboys -4.5.
Sunday, Dec 18, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: None.

Trolling will continue. I can’t attack the NFL.com or ESPN boards because the fascist scum working at Facebook prevented me from making posts that others besides my friends can see. They’ve also been penalizing the other trolls. However, I have been hitting up the team pages on Facebook.

Here’s a post I forgot to show you last week regarding Mario whining about the Tampa loss from a couple of weeks ago:

I don’t get the “Go home… you’re drunk” post. Where does Steve Prescott think Mario is typing this from?

Anyway, here’s something from Seattle’s Facebook page:

I hate emojis, but if I weren’t an old a**hole, I’d probably give Jason Dumas one of those red 100 thingies.

Mario invaded the Packers’ Facebook page:

I’m upset no one pointed out that Mario thinks that yellow graphic is a flashlight. And by the way, what’s wrong with liking your own comment? If you can’t like your own comments, who will?

DALLAS OFFENSE: Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth didn’t discuss the possibility of Tony Romo relieving an ineffective Dak Prescott during last week’s game, so perhaps they were just saving that material for this Sunday’s contest. Prescott has struggled mightily the past couple of weeks, especially on third down. The Cowboys used to move the chains and control the clock incredibly well, but that has changed ever since Thanksgiving.

Speaking of changes, the Buccaneers have improved markedly on this side of the ball. They were always great against the run, meaning they match up well versus the Cowboys, but were very weak to deep passing attacks. That’s no longer the case.

A few things have occurred. Rookie defensive end Noah Spence has stepped up recently, and he should continue to play well against Dallas’ lone liability on the offensive line, Doug Free. The Cowboys won’t be able to concentrate on Spence because Gerald McCoy is playing out of his mind. Meanwhile, the secondary has improved exponentially. Brent Grimes has been a lockdown cornerback, so he’ll be able to limit Dez Bryant. Also, the safety play has gotten better ever since Keith Tandy was inserted into the starting lineup. Tandy has been a major upgrade over the anemic Chris Conte. Tampa’s improved secondary should continue to give Prescott trouble, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Romo made an appearance.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Cowboys’ defense will once again have to step up and give their team a chance to win. Their pass rush should be able to get to Jameis Winston consistently if Demar Dotson is out again. Dotson is far better than backup Gosder Cherilus, and Tampa already has a weakness at left tackle. Dallas’ edge rushers have been effective, so they’ll give Winston problems if Dotson is missing.

I don’t expect the Buccaneers to run very well either. There’s something wrong with Doug Martin, as he hasn’t been the same upon his return from injury. The Cowboys stop ground attacks effectively, and they’ll continue to do so as long as Sean Lee is healthy.

As with the Cowboys, it’s going to be difficult for the Buccaneers to move the chains successfully, but I’m sure Winston will generate some consistent drives. Dallas doesn’t have anyone to stop Mike Evans, and Winston has developed quite the rapport with Cameron Brate.

RECAP: This is my top selection of the week if my December NFL Pick of the Month is excluded. I love the Buccaneers, and I think they can win outright.

I’ve been writing for a while now that the Cowboys haven’t been playing good football. They were once very dominant, but ever since the Pittsburgh victory, they’ve been very blegh. The Ravens hung around; the Redskins’ offense couldn’t be stopped on Thanksgiving; the Vikings may have won if Adam Thielen didn’t muff a punt in the fourth quarter; and a very average Giants team beat them Sunday night. Prescott has converted just two third downs the past couple of weeks. That’s not good.

Despite this, the Cowboys are favored by seven points, which is just way too much. I made this line Dallas -4.5, and I thought I may have been a bit too high. The Buccaneers are on fire right now, beating the Chiefs, Seahawks, Chargers and Saints, so they won’t be intimidated to battle the Cowboys. Their improved defense will keep the game close, and that already figured to be the case. The last time the Cowboys won by more than a touchdown, save for a fluky cover against the Ravens in which they kicked a front-door field goal at the very end, was back in Week 9 versus the Browns.

We’re getting 2.5 points of value with the Buccaneers, per my calculations, which may not sound like much. However, we’re going through two key numbers. In what should be a defensive grinder, I’m taking the touchdown underdog for five units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I think there’s a chance this line goes to +6.5 sometime soon. I’ll be monitoring it, but chances are the number will drop the one hour I’m not at my computer like the Ravens-Patriots spread did last week.

SATURDAY NOTES: I have to say that I’m worried about all of the public action on the Buccaneers, as well as the fact that the top players in the Supercontest are all over Tampa, which is no a good sign based on what’s happened this year. Still, it’s possible that the books just set a bad line and are getting punished for it. Oh, and here’s an interesting stat: Terry McAulay is officiating this game. Why is that important? Well, home teams are just 50-76 against the spread when McAulay is the official. I don’t know if this means anything, or if it’s just variance, but like I said, it’s interesting.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still love the Buccaneers, but I’m not a huge fan of the -120 juice attached to +7. I thought about dropping to four units because of that, but if I lose four units at -120, it’s -4.8 units compared to -6 units at five. Is 1.2 units worth losing one on a victory? I think that’s fine, so I’m keeping this at five units, since this line is just way too high. This is a huge game for Tampa, while Dallas has not played very well since the first half of its Thanksgiving game. Hopefully the Buccaneers don’t fumble the ball inside the 5-yard line like the Lions, or drop countless passes like the Broncos, fml.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
The Buccaneers are a slight public dog.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 59% (86,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Road Team is 74-43 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

The underdog is 69-39 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Cowboys are 15-24 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).

Jason Garrett is 3-6 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Cowboys -7.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Dome.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Cowboys 20, Buccaneers 17
Buccaneers +7 -120 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Under 47.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cowboys 26, Buccaneers 20

Carolina Panthers (5-8) at Washington Redskins (7-5-1)
Line: Redskins by 7. Total: 50.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Redskins -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Redskins -6.5.
Monday, Dec 19, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: Redskins.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have some bald dude and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and aloof people like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the stupid city of Washington, home of the Washington Redskins and Seattle Seahawks! Tonight, the Carolina Panthers take on the Washington Redskins. Guys, this game involves one team in hot water, so let’s talk about the elephant in the room. What are your guys’ thoughts on the team with a controversial team name?

Emmitt: Dwight, I do not see elephant in the room, unless he hiding and I cannot see himselves. The fattest guy in the room Matt Miller. But I digest. The Redskin seem very controversy and he very offensive. How comed a guy who like to paint his face red get to be a team named, but a guy who paint his face blue not team named? Why do the National Conference of Football Leagues not have a team named the Blueskins?

Herm: THE REDSKINS REFER TO INDIANS! NOT PEOPLE WHO PAINT THEIR FACES, NOW! NOT PEOPLE WHO PAINT THEIR FACES! PEOPLE WHO ARE INDIANS! BUT NOT FROM THE COUNTRY OF INDIA! NOT FROM THE STATE OF INDIANA EITHER! NOT INDIA! NOT INDIANA! BUT NORTH AMERICA! NORTH AMERICA IS A CONTINENT! ONE OF THE SEVEN CONTINENT! THERE’S NORTH AMERICA! SOUTH AMERICA! CENTRAL AMERICA! EAST AMERICA! THERE’S EUROPE! THERE’S ASIA! THERE’S AFRICA! THERE’S AUSTRALIA! BUT THAT’S EIGHT ALREADY! HERM COUNTED EIGHT! EIGHT’S NOT GREAT NOW! EIGHT’S NOT GREAT! WHY’S SEVEN AFRAID OF EIGHT? BECAUSE SEVEN EIGHT NINE! SEVEN… WAIT… UHH… umm…

Millen: Hold on a second, gentlemen. Did I hear that correctly? Did Emmitt call me an elephant? I take great offense to that. Just because I’ve stuck kielbasas into the backsides of elephants doesn’t make me an elephant!

Reilly: Shut up, Millen, it’s just an expression. Guys, I was referring to the Panthers being offensive because panthers ate my cousin Melvis in 1988. I haven’t slept since. But let’s move on to another topic. I’m pissed that my Philadelphia Eagles are in last place. I’ve tried to kill other quarterbacks to make this different, but nothing has worked. I’m going to try another tactic, and I’m going to spread rumors about quarterbacks in the division. For example, did you know that Kirk Cousins’ parents named him “Cousins” because he had sex with his cousins? Eww, incest, eww!!!

Tollefson: Kevin, there’s nothing wrong with incest as long as your cousin is hot. If your cousin is ugly, screw her. Not literally, but just forget about her. But as I like to say, “If your cousin is hot, why not?” Kidnap her, and make her cook and clean naked for you!

Wolfley: KEVIN, DID YOU KNOW THAT SOME NATIVE AMERICAN TRIBES USED TO ENCOURAGE COUSINS TO INTER-MARRY? MY PARENTS URGED ME TO MARRY MY COUSIN TO KEEP THE FAMILY’S BLOODLINES PURE.

Fouts: And here’s what he means by bloodlines. There’s two parts to that word, bloodline. The first part is blood, which is the red thing flowing inside everyone. Unless you’re an alien, and then your blood is green. Red, of course, means “stop” at a stoplight, and “green” means go at a stoplight, so you could argue that humans are the race of stopping, and aliens are the race of going. And by race, I mean the thing where people start running, and whoever is fastest wins the race. Whoever’s slowest loses the race. The second part of the bloodline word is blood. That’s the red thing flowing inside everyone. Wait, didn’t I say that already? And by say, I mean the process of having things come out of my mouth.

Reilly: You’re lucky I don’t punch you in the mouth for annoying me, Fouts! Guys, help me spread rumors about Kirk Cousins! Anyone have any good ones?

Charles Davis’ Voice: Hey Kevin, let’s talk about planets, Kevin. How about Jupiter, Kevin? What about Saturn, Kevin? Let’s talk about Mars, Kevin. And who could forget about Earth, Kevin? Let’s discuss Neptune, Kevin. What about Pluto, Kevin? And Mercury, Kevin? Can you name the planet we haven’t discussed yet, Kevin? Can you, Kevin? I’ll give you five guesses, Kevin.

Reilly: Uranus! Got it!

Charles Davis’ Voice: Sorry, Kevin, the answer is not pepperoni pizza, Kevin. The answer is Uranus, Kevin.

Reilly: I SAID URANUS, A**HOLE!!!

Millen: Did someone just say Uranus and a**hole? Oh boy, am I excited!

Reilly: YOU F***ING IDIOTS, YOU CAN’T HELP ME OVERTHROW KIRK COUSINS BY MAKING FAKE RUMORS ABOUT HIM! I’LL KILL ALL OF YOU IDIOTS! We’ll be back after this!

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Cam Newton is not playing well at all right now. He hasn’t completed half of his passes in a game since Week 10. Newton simply hasn’t been the same ever since losing Ryan Kalil to his season-ending injury.

The Panthers don’t have anyone to replace Kalil, as the drop-off from him to Tyler Larsen is very substantial. Carolina has its same issues at tackle, so it’s going to struggle to block Ryan Kerrigan and Chris Baker. Newton won’t be able to go to Kelvin Benjamin once again either, as Josh Norman, eagerly seeking revenge, will be smothering him.

A couple of things could work for the Panthers. One, Jonathan Stewart could run the ball well. The Redskins have been beaten on the ground this year, and the two starting inside linebackers, Su’a Cravens and Will Compton, are banged up and may not play. Two, Greg Olsen has a great matchup versus a defense that couldn’t contain Jared Cook. Cravens and Compton being hurt will also have an impact on Olsen’s potential.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Panthers have been missing two key players on defense as well, as Luke Kuechly has been out, and Charles Johnson joined him last week. Both are considered questionable at the moment. However, Kuechly clearing concussion protocol could be tricky, and the Panthers may decide not to risk it because they’re eliminated from the playoffs. Johnson, meanwhile, could return, but he’s dealing with a hamstring, and those sorts of injuries tend to linger.

If Kuechly is out and Johnson is also missing or limited, the Panthers won’t be able to defend Jordan Reed as Kirk Cousins has ample time to get the ball to his stud tight end. Reed was a decoy last week coming off an injury, but he’ll have a greater role this Monday. Meanwhile, Carolina’s secondary will continue to struggle, as DeSean Jackson is red hot. He and Pierre Garcon will give the Panthers major problems.

The Redskins figure to run the ball as well, as long as Kuechly and Johnson continue to have their injury problems. The Chargers couldn’t take advantage of this last week because Melvin Gordon was lost on the second drive, but Robert Kelley will have some tough rushes to set up favorable situations for Cousins.

RECAP: I have the Redskins listed at -6.5, and yet they’re favored by just 4.5 points; Vegas and the public simply have not made the appropriate adjustment for Carolina sucking this year. Two points of value is nice, and we’re crossing a key number of six to boot.

I’m currently betting two units on Washington, but that could definitely change. There are lots of injury question marks right now. Kuechly, Charles Johnson and the two Redskin inside linebackers are all considered questionable, so depending on what happens, I may increase or decrease my unit count. Check back or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Tons of sharp bets were placed on the Redskins, raising this spread from -4.5 to -6.5. The line I made for this game was -6.5, so I’m not going to be betting this game any longer. Perhaps I’ll place a unit on Washington on Monday if I can get -6, but this doesn’t look great now.

SATURDAY NOTES: Luke Kuechly has cleared concussion protocol, but it’s still unknown if he’s going to play or not. Charles Johnson is out, so Carolina’s defense won’t be at full strength regardless, but I want to know if Kuechly is going to be on the field before having a confident opinion on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I liked the Redskins a good deal when they were -4.5. Then, before I knew it, the spread jumped two points within a couple of hours. There were some huge sharp bets placed on the Redskins. The sharps also wagered on the Redskins at -6.5, but they haven’t touched them at -7. I’m not touching them at -7 either. This number is pretty much where it should be now, so all the value is gone. I’m still siding with Washington, but Cam Newton could easily have a back-door opportunity to bring the margin to within six or seven.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Washington: 54% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Redskins are 11-26 ATS after a road win since 2000.

Redskins are 7-21 ATS as home favorites of more than 4 since 2000.

Opening Line: Redskins -4.5.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Redskins 31, Panthers 23
Redskins -7 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 50.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Panthers 26, Redskins 15

Week 15 NFL Picks – Early Games
Los Angeles at Seattle, Miami at NY Jets, Tennessee at Kansas City, Tampa Bay at Dallas, Philadelphia at Baltimore, Detroit at NY Giants, Jacksonville at Houston, Cleveland at Buffalo, Green Bay at Chicago, Indianapolis at Minnesota

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Lions +9.5, Ravens PK (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110

Moneyline: Buccaneers +255 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Moneyline: Lions +170 (1.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$150

Moneyline: Bears +230 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline: Titans +190 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50

Moneyline: Colts +195 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$195

Moneyline: Broncos +155 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

NFL Picks - Dec. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
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2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

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2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
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2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
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2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
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2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
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2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)