NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2016

NFL Picks (Preseason 2016): 12-7-1 (+$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2016): 13-3 (+$1,735) full review
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2016): 9-7 (-$430) full review
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2016): 7-7-2 (+$880) full review
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2016): 7-8 (-$70) full review
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2016): 6-7-1 (+$115) full review
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2016): 7-7-1 (+$515) full review
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2016): 11-4 (+$1,560) full review
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2016): 8-4-1 (-$60) full review
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2016): 5-6-2 (-$1,170)

NFL Picks (2016): 85-60-8 (+$4,365)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 14, 6:50 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games

Cleveland Browns (0-9) at Baltimore Ravens (4-4)
Line: Ravens by 9. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -9.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Ravens -7.5.
Thursday, Nov 10, 8:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Ravens.

WEEK 9 RECAP: I just had my worst week of the season. Despite the Monday night win, I finished 5-6-2, (-$1,170). Yeah, that bad. Week 9 was a mixture of overconfidence, bad handicapping and bad luck.

The bad luck occurred in three of my top four picks. The Eagles (5 units), Jets (4 units) and Rams (5 units) all outgained their opponents by at least one yard per play, which is pretty significant. Unfortunately, Doug Pederson’s awful play-calling, Kenyan Drake’s kickoff return, and all of the Rams’ drops turned what should’ve been 3-0 into 0-1-2.

Bad luck is going to happen, so you just have to take the bad beats and move on. Bad handicapping, however, is a problem. I made three awful decisions in Week 9. The first was placing four units on the Browns. I’ve done very well with Cleveland, but I didn’t recognize the Cowboys as an elite team. They’ve dominated most opponents they’ve played recently, so I didn’t make the appropriate adjustments. I don’t really regret taking the Browns, but it shouldn’t have been such a big bet. The second blunder of mine was betting the Broncos. The Raiders were once overrated, but they’ve made some defensive changes and have become better than the Broncos, whom I should’ve considered overrated. Luckily, Matvei’s words of wisdom allowed me to lose only three units instead of five.

My third mistake was increasing the unit counts on the Chiefs and Vikings, simply because of what was going on in the Supercontest. I don’t know why I was betting on games in which I didn’t have much or any confidence. That was dumb, and that’s obviously the overconfidence I was referring to earlier.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: I’m not sure if the Ravens were surprised that they couldn’t run on the Steelers after Jay Ajayi had so much success a few weeks ago. They failed to do so because Cameron Heyward was back in the lineup for Pittsburgh. Terrance West did nothing as a result, but I imagine he’ll have a much better result in this contest, as the Browns’ front figures to get pushed around again. It helps, of course, that Marshal Yanda is back in the lineup.

West being able to gash his former team will obviously help Joe Flacco, who struggled Sunday outside of a fluky 95-yard touchdown to Mike Wallace. I imagine the Browns will take Wallace away with Joe Haden, but Flacco will be able to connect with Steve Smith and some of his other targets for significant gains. Jason Witten just chewed up the Browns, so perhaps Dennis Pitta will have the same sort of success.

It’d be nice if the Browns could help their ailing secondary by putting pressure on Flacco, but I don’t think that’ll be possible, despite the liability the Ravens have at left tackle. Rookie Ronnie Stanley has been struggling, but Cleveland doesn’t have any quality edge rushers to take advantage of this.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns will have to score a healthy amount of points to give themselves a chance to prevail. They’ll certainly have a chance to do so, as Baltimore’s defense is clearly not what it used to be.

The primary issue with the Ravens on this side of the ball is their inability to put consistent pressure on the quarterback. Terrell Suggs is the one quality edge rusher they have, and he’s definitely not the same as he once was. Suggs will be stymied by All-Pro left tackle Joe Thomas, so it’s fair to wonder where Baltimore’s heat will come from.

With a cleaner pocket this time, Cody Kessler should have success against a shaky group of cornerbacks. Jerraud Powers, in particular, is struggling, so one of Terrelle Pryor or Corey Coleman will take full advantage of this. The Ravens had immense issues defending Coleman in their first meeting, and nothing has changed to prompt a different result.

RECAP: My rule for Thursday games is to just take the superior team. However, I don’t think the Ravens are much better than the Browns. That may sound odd, considering the records, but these teams aren’t far apart in my NFL Power Rankings. Besides, I seem to recall Cleveland establishing a 20-2 lead on Baltimore in Week 2. The Browns probably would’ve won had Josh McCown not gotten hurt. Also, it needs to be noted that in the new CBA, double-digit home favorites on Thursday night are just 2-4 against the spread. I hate trends, but I wanted to point that out because superior teams prevailing on Thursday hasn’t applied when one squad is laying tons of points.

I’ve been betting the Browns ever since Robert Griffin was knocked out, and I’ve mostly had success doing so. I was on the wrong side last week, but that was just a huge talent disparity. The same thing happened with the Patriots. Otherwise, I’ve been mostly on point with the Browns, who have been competitive, despite their 0-9 record. They should’ve beaten some teams already – Ravens, Dolphins, Redskins, Jets – so if they were 2-7 instead of 0-9, what would this line be? Probably Ravens -7.5, right? That’s what I think the spread should be, so we’re getting good value at +10.

Besides, who is Baltimore to be a double-digit favorite? This team isn’t good. The Ravens haven’t won by more than 10 yet, as they’ve prevailed by 6 (vs. Bills), 5 (at Browns), 2 (at Jaguars) and 7 (vs. Steelers with injured Ben Roethlisberger). This line is a joke, and I’m willing to wager four units on the Browns again.

I’ll be posting NFL Picks all day Tuesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Wow. I did not see this coming. There’s been a major influx of sharp bets coming in on the Browns. This spread has dropped from +10 all the way to +7.5 in most books, which is insane! Fortunately, Bovada still has +9 -115, so I’ll lock that in before they drop the line as well.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m glad I was able to lock in the Browns at +9, as this spread has dropped to +8. It’s still +7.5 everywhere, which would still warrant a pretty big bet on Baltimore. Marshal Yanda is out for the Ravens, so blocking could be a problem. I’m also going to put a unit on Browns +290.

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.

The Ravens just had a big win against the Steelers. After this, they battle Dallas and Cincinnati.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
No edge found.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 58% (21,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

History: Ravens have won 15 of the last 17 meetings (Road Team has covered 10 of the last 13 non-pushes).

Ravens are 21-11 ATS in November home games since 2000.

Ravens are 4-13 ATS as favorites of 7.5 or more since 2010.

Opening Line: Ravens -9.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Ravens 26, Browns 23
Browns +9 -115 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$460
Over 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Ravens 28, Browns 7

Houston Texans (5-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6)
Line: Jaguars by 2.5. Total: 42.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -2.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Texans -2.
Sunday, Nov 13, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Texans.

OVERRATED-UNDERRATED: I posted betting trends and such in this spot over the past couple of years, but I won’t be doing that as much because I’ll be moving away from trends. Instead, I’ll list some underrated observations that the media either isn’t discussing or is misinforming the public about. I think I’ll do this in conjunction with overrated and underrated teams, which I should definitely put more effort into…

Underrated NFL Teams:

Los Angeles Rams: Casual bettors miss injuries to significant role players. Part of the reason for that is ESPN focusing on stars and not spending enough time talking about actual substance. Thus, most people may have missed the fact that the Rams were without two of their defensive studs, Robert Quinn and Michael Brockers, against the Bills and Lions. Despite this, Los Angeles and Buffalo were tied at 16 late in the game when Case Keenum lofted a horrible pick-six. Keenum is obviously not any good, but the Rams weren’t themselves because they were missing half of their awesome defensive line. The same thing occurred against the Lions. Los Angeles was the better team against the Giants, but just killed itself with dumb mistakes. The same thing occurred versus the Panthers, whom they outgained in terms of yards per play, 5.1-3.9. For that reason, I believe the Rams will provide quality betting opportunities going forward.

Chicago Bears: It almost hurts my insides to praise a Jay Cutler-led team, but this underrated designation doesn’t really have anything to do with Cutler. It’s the defense I want to discuss, which welcomed back Pernell McPhee last Monday night and was able to dominate the Vikings as a consequence. Chicago’s stop unit looks like it’s going to be very good in the second half of the season as long as the key players stay healthy. The offense, meanwhile, suddenly has some play-makers with Jordan Howard and Cameron Meredith stepping up to complement Alshon Jeffery.

Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles have played better than their recent 1-4 record indicates. They’ve endured some horrible luck, though Doug Pederson’s awful play-calling on fourth down didn’t help. Philadelphia outgained the Giants by more than one yard per play this past week. Before that, the Eagles had a 10-point lead versus Dallas in the fourth quarter, which was pretty impressive. Philadelphia also should’ve beaten the Lions, but Ryan Mathews’ fumble set up a game-winning Detroit field goal. The Eagles could easily be 6-2 or maybe even 7-1 right now.

New York Jets: I can’t believe I’m writing this, but the Jets are underrated. We’ve seen them lose some ugly games earlier in the year, but here’s the thing: Their schedule was absolutely brutal, and most of the teams they’ve lost to are ranked in the top 10. Beginning in Week 3, the Jets lost to the Chiefs, Seahawks, Steelers and Cardinals, and yet they were competitive in three of those contests. I think that’s pretty impressive, and in hindsight, it’s not surprising at all that they’ve begun playing well against lesser competition. This includes the Miami game, where they outgained the Dolphins in terms of yards per play, 6.1-4.4. They may have won if it wasn’t for Kenyan Drake’s kickoff return.

Tennessee Titans: I think we can say that the Titans are slightly underrated. It’s pretty remarkable that they’ve been in every single game this year. They led the Vikings in the opener. They had a chance to beat the Raiders at the end of the game in Week 3. They lost in Houston because of a punt return the following Sunday. They made some mental errors in their loss to the Colts. They played evenly with the Chargers even though they lost by eight. Tennessee has either won or lost by single digits in every contest this year, and unlike all of the other teams in the AFC South, it actually has an identity. The Titans run the ball well and get to the quarterback effectively with their front seven. They have some glaring issues – poor receivers, struggling secondary – but they do a number of things extremely well.

Overrated NFL Teams:

Denver Broncos: I’m pissed at myself for not seeing this earlier, though Matvei did help me avoid a five-unit loss. The Broncos became known as a great team because of two marquee victories to begin the season. The first was against the Panthers, who started 1-5. Graham Gano whiffed on a kick, which would’ve given Carolina the victory. The second was at Cincinnati, a team that has been a disappointment this year as well. Plus, the Bengals had to play in four days. Since then, the Broncos won at Tampa (everyone does that), beat the Texans in a game that was 14-9 late in the third quarter prior to a Houston fumble deep in Denver territory, and avenged a loss to the Chargers with the help of numerous tipped interceptions and bad goal-line play-calling. The Broncos are a good team because of their defense, but they were never great.

New York Giants: When an overrated team keeps winning, they become more overrated. Or, the person generating the list is stupid. But I think it’s the former in this case. The Giants definitely do not deserve to have a winning record. They were outgained by a whole yard per play against the Eagles, but were able to win because of Doug Pederson stupidity. They only won in London because the Rams wrecked themselves with dumb mistakes, and they probably wouldn’t have prevailed against Baltimore had the Ravens not lost Jimmy Smith and Terrell Suggs in the second half. Prior to that, the Giants were not competitive against the Vikings or Packers. It would make more sense to me if they were 2-6 or 3-5 right now, as they can’t block, run the ball or get to the quarterback.

Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens were lucky to get a Steeler team that was quarterbacked by a hobbled Ben Roethlisberger, and yet they averaged the same yards per play as Pittsburgh – and that includes a fluky 95-yard touchdown in the early going! The Ravens are tied for the AFC North lead, but they don’t really deserve it.

Houston Texans: The Texans are definitely not a 5-3 team. Not even close. Their victories have all been unimpressive wins against middling or horrid opponents. They trailed the Bears in the third quarter. They struggled to put away the Chiefs and Lions. They needed a punt return touchdown to defeat the Titans, whom they were tied at 20 with at the end of the third quarter. And on a Sunday night, the Colts led by two touchdowns, but blew the lead because of injuries and abysmal decision-making by Chuck Pagano. The Texans could easily be 3-5 or worse right now, which is saying a lot considering how easy their strength of schedule has been.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars fired the only good coach on their staff, offensive coordinator Greg Olson, so it was hardly a surprise that they scored only seven points last week prior to garbage time. This is the sort of incompetence we’ve come to expect from Jacksonville, so it’s nice to know that some things will always remain constant. Never change, Jags. Never change.

I’m sure the Jaguars will score some touchdowns if this game is lopsided, but what about in meaningful action? I have my doubts. The Texans bring plenty of heat despite missing J.J. Watt, as Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney have both played well this year. The latter has a huge edge over left tackle Kelvin Beachum, who is struggling with an injury. Blake Bortles, who cares more about partying than being a successful quarterback, will have a tough time dealing with Clowney, especially since Allen Robinson will be smothered by A.J. Bouye, who has been unbelievable this year. Allen Hurns, meanwhile, could miss this contest with a concussion.

If the Jaguars have success moving the chains when this contest is still in doubt, it’ll have to come on the ground. Chris Ivory finally ran well last week, as he looked healthy for the first time all year. His ability to establish the rushing attack depends on Vince Wilfork’s condition, as the monstrous nose tackle is considered questionable with a groin ailment.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Jaguars have been much better on this side of the ball for the most part this year. That was not apparent in the Thursday night blowout everyone saw when most of the defenders quit on Gus Bradley – not sure why he wasn’t fired – but if Jacksonville actually tries hard for the second week in a row, it’ll have the capability of containing the Texans.

It’s not like Houston is that explosive on this side of the ball, anyway. Sure, they have DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, but Brock Osweiler has had issues connecting with them. Perhaps something was done during the bye to change this, but I’m going to remain skeptical for now. Besides, the Jaguars have the cornerback talent in Prince Amukamara and Jalen Ramsey to contain Hopkins and Fuller. The pass rush isn’t there, however, so Osweiler will at least have time in the pocket.

I don’t expect Lamar Miller to have much success running the ball. He’s just a middling back, and his offensive line hasn’t really done much for him. The Jaguars just put the clamps on Charcandrick West, whose blocking is superior. I’ll be mildly surprised if Miller has a big game.

RECAP: If the Jaguars had a competent quarterback, I’d give them a good chance to win this game. The Texans are not a good team, so they shouldn’t be road favorites in most instances.

However, this is a special circumstance. Jacksonville has no homefield advantage – no, the pool doesn’t help – and Bortles is not emotionally invested enough into football to help the Jaguars establish one. As long as he can keep cashing checks and partying, he doesn’t even care. Thus, betting on Jacksonville without getting lots of points just seems impossible for me right now. There’s no line value to bet Houston either, unfortunately, so this is a zero-unit pick.

SportsLine’s Micah Roberts is 22-6 in college football Over-Under picks this season (+1534 profit). He’s also won his last 5 NFL Over-Under picks. You can get all of his plays by visiting SportsLine.com.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: More crazy sharp movement! The Jaguars have gone from +1.5 to -2 because of professional money. I don’t agree with this one, but I don’t feel strongly either way. If you like to tail sharp action, bet Jacksonville.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps have continued to pound the Jaguars, and the line is now up to -2.5. As discussed in the Supercontest Picks analysis page, three of the top five contestants are on Jacksonville. I don’t get it. I’d rather just keep utilizing Matvei’s strategy of going against the Jaguars every week, which has been working for him.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t allowed this to reach Jaguars -3, as the books are probably scared of getting middled with take-back on Texans +3. Either way, this will remain a non-play for me.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Tons of public money on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 66% (12,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

History: Texans have won 9 of the last 11 meetings.

Jaguars are 12-5 ATS coming off a 2-game road trip the previous 17 instances.

Opening Line: Texans -1.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Texans 20, Jaguars 17
Texans +2.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 24, Jaguars 21

Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) at Carolina Panthers (3-5)
Line: Panthers by 3. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Panthers -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -1.
Sunday, Nov 13, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot in coming weeks. Here were the four highest-bet sides, as of Tuesday morning last week:

Falcons -3.5

Saints -3

Cowboys -7.5

Panthers -3

Those teams went 3-0-1 ATS, bringing the overall record this season to 16-21-1. The books, as you can see, got absolutely hammered. They had their worst week of the season, so I’d advise betting against highly, publicly backed teams this week. If the books keep losing like this, there will be bodies buried in the desert.

Here are the highest-bet teams in Week 10, as of Tuesday morning:

Falcons PK

Packers -2.5

Patriots -7.5

Cowboys +2

Nothing on here is a surprise. The Patriots, Cowboys and Falcons have been covering the spread like crazy, while the public sees Packers -2.5 at Tennessee as a no-brainer.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs were shorthanded against the Jaguars. Alex Smith and Spencer Ware were out of the lineup with concussions, while Jeremy Maclin exited the game in the first quarter with a groin injury. It’s not looking good for Maclin for this contest, but Smith and Ware will be returning to action, at least.

Smith being back under center will be a relief for Kansas City fans. Nick Foles performed well at Indianapolis, but he hurled helpless lollipops that should’ve been intercepted by the Jaguars. Smith will be more careful with the football, and he should be able to move the chains consistently, considering the state of Carolina’s secondary. Travis Kelce will also have a big game, assuming he doesn’t get kicked out for throwing more towels at the officials. The Panthers have struggled defending tight ends all year, and that will certainly continue against one of the league’s best at the position.

Ware returning won’t be as impactful. The Panthers have endured major issues versus the pass this year, but they’ve defended running backs well. Still, I think Ware being on the field again will help, as his presence in the backfield will force the opposition to be honest.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It was not a surprise that the Panthers scored just 13 points against the Rams, all while averaging a meager 3.9 yards per play. They’ve struggled when battling defenses with terrific edge rushes, as their tackles are pretty abysmal. They’ll prove to be a liability once more in this affair.

Justin Houston has been activated off the PUP list, but it’s unclear if he’ll return this week. Even if he doesn’t, the Chiefs have a pair of edge rushers who will create havoc in the pocket in Tamba Hali and Dee Ford. The latter has been exceptional lately, and the Panthers don’t have anyone to contain him. Meanwhile, Marcus Peters will smother Kelvin Benjamin, so on the rare occasions in which Cam Newton does have time in the pocket, he’ll try to find Greg Olsen. The problem with that is Kansas City has been terrific at defending tight ends this season.

The Panthers’ only hope of moving the chains on a consistent basis is via the rushing attack. The Chiefs don’t hold up well versus ground attacks, so I can envision Jonathan Stewart having a big game. I’m sure Newton will pick up chunks of yardage on scrambles as well.

RECAP: I had a big play on the Rams last week, one of the sides that would’ve covered if it weren’t for some bad luck, and in the write-up, I explained that the Panthers are still being priced as if they’re the 2015 version of themselves. They’re obviously not. They’re significantly weaker, as their pass rush hasn’t been as potent, while their secondary has struggled immensely. Plus, Newton doesn’t appear to have the same fire, as he’s more concerned about not getting calls for illegal hits. He may have a point, but he just doesn’t seem as focused.

With that in mind, this line is off again. I have the Panthers as mere one-point favorites. A spread of three says that these teams are about equal, but I don’t think that’s the case. The Chiefs are the better team, and they’ll be getting some reinforcements back this week. Meanwhile, this will be another instance in which Carolina struggles to move the ball as a result of its poor tackles. It’s also worth noting that the Panthers have to play a game in four days, so they may not be as focused as they would be in normal circumstances.

This is a three-unit bet for me, and I almost considered locking it in, as Chiefs +3 -105 is widely available. This line could go up, however, as the public is pounding Carolina for some reason, while the sharps haven’t really touched either side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s been no movement on this game, but I’m going to lock in +3. If this goes up to +3.5, that’s fine. I’m worried about it going to +2.5 as a result of Ryan Kalil being out again.

SATURDAY NOTES: I missed out on +3 +100, unfortunately. A bit of sharp money has come in on the Panthers, but it hasn’t been anything substantial, and it could easily go the other way Sunday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Chiefs are still +3 +100 at Bovada, but +3 -110 elsewhere. Kansas City appears to be the right side, as the Panthers will once again be without two of their starting offensive linemen, which is just bad news versus the Kansas City pass rush.

The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.

The Panthers have to take on the Saints in four days.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

The public is betting the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 67% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Panthers -3.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Chiefs 21, Panthers 20
Chiefs +3 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 20, Panthers 17

Denver Broncos (6-3) at New Orleans Saints (4-4)
Line: Saints by 3. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -2.5.
Sunday, Nov 13, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Saints.

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HATE MAIL: I didn’t get as much hate mail as I thought I would in the wake of my first awful week. Someone did post this prior to the Sunday games, however:

I assume he might be calling me a n00b, but why? Did this wise sage forsee a poor week for me? Or did he truly escape from a mental facility?

Here’s someone complaining about all of my picks, year to date:

I wouldn’t exactly classify this as hate mail, but I’m confused by it nonetheless. I’ve been having a great year prior to last week, so why complain about my tendency to take underdogs? Would he rather have me lose with favorites?

Here’s some true hate mail for what happened in Week 9:

Why is it “too bad” I didn’t make the Browns my NFL Pick of the Month? Why does this guy care about me losing so much? I really find stuff like this fascinating.

Here’s one more:

For someone who doesn’t watch football at all, I sure am up a lot of units this year. How impressive!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Many considered Denver’s defense to be the NFL’s best during the early stages of the season. That’s certainly not the case anymore, as the Broncos struggled to contain the Raiders, thanks to numerous injuries. Aqib Talib and Kayvon Webster both missed the Oakland contest, which was huge considering how great the Raiders’ receiving corps is. Then, as if the Broncos didn’t have enough issues, they lost Derek Wolfe to an elbow injury. Wolfe is unlikely to play in this game.

With Wolfe out, the Broncos won’t be able to pressure Drew Brees from the interior, which is where he hates to see pass-rushers come from. Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware still exist, and they’d usually be enough to disrupt most offenses, but the Saints have a pair of excellent tackles in Terron Armstead and Zach Strief. Armstead finally being healthy is a major reason why the Saints have begun winning recently. Another is the emergence of Michael Thomas, who has been unbelievable as a mere rookie. With Thomas dominating, the Saints have way too many weapons for Denver to deal with.

The Broncos also have to worry about the Saints’ rushing attack. Mark Ingram bounced back from his benching with a huge performance against the 49ers. San Francisco is woeful versus the run, sure, but it’s not like Denver has been very good against it either. The Raiders, who struggle to pound the rock, were able to pick up big chunks of yardage on the ground, and New Orleans should be able to do the same thing.

DENVER OFFENSE: Luckily for the Broncos, they’ll be battling a defense that has been struggling as well. The Saints also endured injuries, namely to top cornerback Delvin Breaux and rookie defensive tackle Sheldon Rankings. However, both returned to the lineup last week, and it didn’t make much of a difference, as Colin Kaepernick threw for nearly 400 yards.

Breaux did not appear to be 100 percent, and he may struggle in the next few weeks as he rounds into playing shape. Thus, I have to imagine that Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders will be productive, as they’ll both be able to get open pretty easily. The question is whether Trevor Siemian will be able to connect with them consistently. It’ll depend if he gets time in the pocket. Rankins fared better than Breaux in his first contest, so the Saints now have three potent pass-rushers, with Nick Fairley and Cameron Jordan joining the athletic rookie. Jordan has an exceptionally promising matchup in this contest, as left tackle Russell Okung has struggled and won’t be able to block him as a result.

The Broncos will need to help Siemian by establishing a rushing attack. It seemed like they’d be able to do so against the Raiders last week, but that never materialized. Devontae Booker has been a disappointment – so much so that the Broncos are considering starting Kapri Bibbs instead.

RECAP: I was hoping to get the Saints as a home underdog again. If they were +3 again, like they were versus the Seahawks – how ridiculous was that spread in hindsight? – this would’ve warranted a huge wager. Alas, the books have caught up to the Broncos’ woes and the Saints’ improved play.

This spread is close to where it should be, as I made the Saints -2.5. Thus, I’m not going to recommend a wager on this contest. For picking pool purposes, however, I would take New Orleans. The Broncos are not the same team without Talib and Wolfe, and they were overrated to begin with, given that the two wins everyone found so impressive (vs. Carolina, at Cincinnati) turned out to be against teams that would end up struggling. The Saints, on the other hand, are surging, thanks to Armstead’s health and Thomas’ dynamic play. The defense remains a major concern, but New Orleans is the pick.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Even more crazy sharp movement! The Saints have jumped up from -1 to -3, thanks to a ton of professional money coming in on them. I would still take the Saints in a picking pool, but -3 offers absolutely no line value. And here I was wishing for a +3!

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m making a pick change. I was thinking a lot about this game earlier today, and I think the Broncos are the right side. There seems to be an overreaction to Denver after what happened Sunday night, and the Saints are not as good as the Broncos, so why is this line -3, especially when considering that New Orleans has to play Thursday night?

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m going to place a unit on the Broncos. Terron Armstead is out for the Saints, which is absolutely huge. With Armstead in the lineup, New Orleans would’ve had a chance to block both of Denver’s dynamic pass-rushers. That won’t happen now. On the other end of the injury spectrum, the Broncos will have Kayvon Webster back, which is obviously good news for the Broncos, who need all the help they can get versus the Saints’ weapons.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 57% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Gary Kubiak is 11-3 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Saints are 36-24 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Drew Brees is 38-26 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Opening Line: Saints -1.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Saints 27, Broncos 26
Broncos +3 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Broncos 25, Saints 23

Los Angeles Rams (3-5) at New York Jets (3-6)
Line: Rams by 1. Total: 39.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Jets -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Jets -2.
Sunday, Nov 13, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Rams.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I haven’t touched on Cam Newton’s whining and complaining from Week 8, which is probably a mistake. I didn’t exactly have a hot take on it because I was torn on what Newton said. On one hand, he definitely doesn’t receive fair treatment. I don’t understand how the officials didn’t call that low blow against the Cardinals. Then again, the official was Walt Coleman, who probably thinks the year is 1975.

On the other hand, however, I can understand why Newton wouldn’t receive fair treatment, and that’s because he has acted like an arrogant douche over the years. All the showboating has been ridiculous, and most football fans I know are sick of it. I personally don’t care, but you don’t know how many people have told me that they hate Newton because they think he’s an arrogant SOB.

Here’s something to think about, though: Newton pretends to be Superman, so if he really were Superman, shouldn’t he be impervious to these hits? Perhaps the officials are treating him as if he really were Superman. You get what you ask for sometimes, you know?

The bottom line is that while the officiating should improve, I’m not going to sulk with Newton about these bad non-calls. If Newton became way more humble, the officials would totally be in his corner. But it’s just difficult to defend him, given how horribly he acts most of the time.

2. On a completely unrelated topic, I’d like to use this space to declare my admiration for Cynthia Frelund, the analytics expert NFL Network has hired. I think it’s pretty cool how Frelund can come close to accurately projecting stat totals for players. She projected Jameis Winston, for example, to go 25-of-42 for 282 yards, two touchdowns and an interception against the Falcons. He went 23-of-37 for 261 yards and three scores, and some of his throws were close to being picked.

That said, I have to take issue with one thing Frelund said, and that’s a stat she pointed out where the Buccaneers are something like 7-0 in the past two years when running the ball at least 50 percent of the time. I absolutely hate stuff like that. Teams that are ahead run the ball. That’s what they do. If teams are behind early, they have to pass. There’s no logical correlation between running the ball and winning. It would be like expecting a team, down 27-0 in the second quarter, to run every single down on one drive. Why would they do that?

3. Stupid stats are one thing. Stupid fantasy owners are another. I’d like to bring attention to something my friend Rel pointed out to me. Rel and I are in a league together, and something he likes to do is drop his kicker during the waiver period. Once all of that is over, he adds a kicker later in the week. It’s a smart strategy.

However, some of our fellow league members have taken note of this, prompting some collusion to pick up all the remaining kickers so Rel couldn’t start one. Here’s a screenshot of the waivers:

I’d like to call these people out. Seriously, what the f*** are you doing? This is fantasy football. It’s supposed to be fun. Why do you have to be a**holes and screw someone out of kicker? They’re acting like a bunch of prissy teenage girls who buy up all the cool outfits so the one girl they want to see fail doesn’t have anything good to wear. Golden Gates and Lobos, you two are prissy teenage girls.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Despite the fans chanting, “We want Goff! We want Goff!” and “Te-bow! Te-bow!” Jeff Fisher has decided not to bench Case Keenum in favor of Jared Goff or Tim Tebow. I wasn’t even aware that Tebow was on the Rams’ roster, but apparently, he’s an honorary member.

Keenum sucks, and there’s no reason for the Rams to keep starting him. Fisher defended his decision by saying that he wants to stick with the veteran until the team is out of playoff contention. I’m not sure why Keenum gives the Rams a better chance, but perhaps it’s a sign that Goff has been as bad in practice as he was in the preseason. Nevertheless, it sounds like both options suck, so Fisher might as well begin giving his rookie quarterback some real-life action. And this would be a perfect opportunity! The Jets have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL, so Goff could throw all over it and gain some confidence. Keenum should be able to have success, though I won’t discount the possibility of him making some dumb throws.

Todd Gurley doesn’t have as great of a matchup as Keenum, but there is some hope for him. The Jets normally defend the run exceptionally well, but there’s some drama concerning Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson, both of whom were benched in the first quarter of last week’s game for missing team meetings, one of which was to celebrate Wilkerson’s 27th birthday. There was even a cake, so if a 300-pound player is missing an opportunity to eat cake, you know something is seriously wrong. It’s possible that Todd Bowles could be losing a portion of his team.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Speaking of losing support, it appears as though Ryan Fitzpatrick won’t have Brandon Marshall defending him going forward. Marshall was responsible for a tirade on the sidelines of last week’s game, as Marshall shouting at Fitzpatrick to get him the ball more often. Fitzpatrick is now dealing with a sprained MCL, while Marshall figures to be smothered by Trumaine Johnson in this matchup, so the veteran receiver’s frustration should continue to build.

The Jets also have some other banged-up players, as left tackle Ryan Clady and center Nick Mangold are both nursing injuries. Both missed last week’s game, so having them on the field will be crucial versus the Rams’ stout defensive front, which is completely healthy again. Clady has struggled anyway, so Robert Quinn will easily have his way with him.

I don’t trust the Jets to run the ball effectively either. Matt Forte has thrived in recent weeks, but he’s had easy matchups. This one is anything but, as Los Angeles has been stout against the run with its talented defensive linemen back on the field.

RECAP: I hate that these teams are playing each other this week, as they’re both “bet on” squads right now, given that they’re underrated. With that in mind, I think this spread is right where it should be. The Rams are a bit better than the Jets, so it would make sense that the Jets wouldn’t be three-point favorites as hosts.

I don’t really see any sort of edge here, aside from the fact that, as mentioned, Bowles might be losing a portion of his team. If so, the Rams should win, despite playing an early start time on the East Coast.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game ever since moving it off Rams +3. I still don’t have much of an opinion on this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: What I wrote on Thursday no longer applies, as the pros have bet the Rams down to +1 or pick. I’d bet on Los Angeles if I could still get +3, but that number is long gone.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Bryce Petty will start, which prompted the line to move in the Rams’ favor. Los Angeles is now favored by one. That would make me consider the Jets, but I’ll keep my pick the same.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 57% (9,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Jeff Fisher is 54-38 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Opening Line: Jets -2.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Rams 23, Jets 20
Rams -1 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 39 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Rams 9, Jets 6

Atlanta Falcons (6-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)
Line: Falcons by 1. Total: 50.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Eagles -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Eagles -1.5.
Sunday, Nov 13, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Falcons.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. Thursday Night Football has been soooo successful for the NFL that the NCAA just haaaaad to create Friday Night Football featuring Big Ten teams. This is going to be suuuuch a greeeaat ideaaa!!!

Hopefully the extra letters in some of those words helped you realize that I was being sarcastic.

This Friday Night Football idea is an abomination. First of all, these student athletes need to study, so how can they do so when they have a game on Friday?

Hold on… hahaha… that was too funny. As if 1-A college athletes study. Anyway, let’s try that again…

This Friday Night Football idea is an abomination. First of all, playing on short weeks can lead to more injuries. More importantly, oversaturation is not a good thing. It’s one of the major reasons why NFL TV ratings are down. Friday night is not a time for college football. No one wants to stay in on Friday night to watch it. It’s going to draw horrible ratings, and the NCAA will harm its overall product. It’s just stupid.

2. Speaking of the NCAA, I was at my sister’s gender-reveal party – it’s going to be a girl – and I was talking to this guy whose political and sports acumen I respect. However, he was pretty drunk, and we were talking about the Penn State game.

“I still can’t believe they penalized Penn State for that stupid Sandusky thing,” he said.

“Definitely,” I agreed. “Fine the school, or whatever, but why would you penalize coaches and players who had nothing to do with that stuff?”

“Totally,” he said. “Man, I hate the NAACP.”

I started cracking up, and he slapped his forehead once he realized his mistake.

“I’ve had too many whiskeys,” he conceded.

3. For those of you who haven’t seen the exchange Todd Graham and Mike Leach a few weeks ago, the head coaches of the Arizona State and Washington State football teams, here it is:

If you can’t hear that, Graham called Leach “chicken s**t,” which was hilarious. Graham was pissed because Leach accused him of stealing plays.

If you feel bad for Leach, please remember that in 2009, he locked a concussed player in a dark closet because he was pissed at him for not wanting to play with a concussion. How he’s still coaching on any level, let alone 1-A college football, is beyond me.

So, you think Graham is the good guy, eh? Well, he left Pitt to go to Arizona State, a truly lateral move aside from the weather, by telling his players via text. That’s right – he wasn’t even man enough to tell them face to face.

The bottom line is that most college football coaches are scumbags. In other words, they’re mostly all chickens***s.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Member being on the Wentz-wagon and living in Wentzylvania? What the hell happened? Carson Wentz got off to such a great start in Philadelphia, nearly going four full games without throwing an interception to begin his career. His accuracy has regressed ever since, as he’s missing players high. This has led to multiple picks, and it’s not like Doug Pederson’s awful play-calling is doing him any favors.

A major factor for Wentz’s regression is Lane Johnson’s absence. Wentz has to rush his throws more, which is why he’s overshooting his targets. Protection will once again be an issue in this contest, as Johnson’s replacement, Halapoulivaati Vaitai, will be squaring off against Vic Beasley, who has been a red-hot pass-rusher over the past several weeks. The good news, however, is that the Falcons may not have Desmond Trufant, who is dealing with an injury. Trufant is Atlanta’s top cornerback, and no one else comes close. Jordan Matthews will have an opportunity to have a decent game as a result, though Wentz’s top target could once again be Zach Ertz, who will be battling another defense that has struggled against tight ends.

Ertz and Matthews will have to play well because the Eagles may not get much out of their ground attack. The Falcons were able to limit Melvin Gordon to just 68 yards on 22 carries a few weeks ago, so I can’t say I have much faith in Sproles doing much on the ground, though I’m sure he’ll pick up chunks of yardage as a receiver coming out of the backfield.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Matt Ryan has been on fire this year, and there’s no reason to think he’ll slow down. After all, Eli Manning came into last week’s game with some atrocious performances prior to his bye, and he was able to make some downfield strikes.

The problem for the Eagles is that they have one of the worst group of cornerbacks in the NFL. No one is playing well at that position for them, which obviously doesn’t bode well for their chances of containing Julio Jones. Mohamed Sanu, a pedestrian talent, also figures to enjoy a decent performance versus this group of cornerbacks. The Eagles will need to counter this by putting an immense amount of heat on Ryan. His tackles shield him pretty well, but Fletcher Cox figures to be a force inside against the weakest link on the Falcons’ front, Chris Chester.

I wouldn’t expect the Falcons to run the ball very effectively, so there’s another glimmer of hope for Philadelphia. The Eagles have contained the run well this year, so Devonta Freeman won’t gain anything substantial on most of his carries. Like Sproles, however, he’ll be a factor as a pass-catcher out of the backfield.

RECAP: The spreads are very tight this week, and I have to say that it’s pretty frustrating. What happened to the days when the Falcons would be three-point road favorites in this type of a matchup? The public is pounding Atlanta right now, so why is this just pick em? Vegas could get a majority of wagers on the Falcons at -3, so following a down week, they’re begging the public to wager on Atlanta. Seems kind of shady, doesn’t it?

I’m taking the Eagles. They’re 1-4 in their previous five contests, but they easily could’ve beaten the Lions and Giants. With that in mind, what would the spread be if they were 6-2? They’d be favored by three, right? They were -2.5 on the advance line, so there’s at least some value with them.

Unfortunately, it’s not enough. We’re not going through any key numbers. Thus, I’m going to make a small wager on the Eagles, who figure to be more desperate than Atlanta. Remember, the Falcons are well ahead of everyone in their division, plus, they’ve been hearing about how great they are for the past 10 days. It’s difficult to imagine them being completely focused against an opponent that will be desperate to avoid dropping to 4-5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Here’s some line movement not influenced by the sharps. The public has continued to pound the Falcons, but the pros have not taken the Eagles. I think it’s time to consider a greater bet on Philadelphia at +2. I’ll move this up to two units, but I’ll keep watching and hoping for +3. This will be a big wager at that number.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps finally pounced on the Eagles at +2, so it doesn’t seem like we’ll be getting +3 unless there’s a major influx of public money Sunday morning. This will likely stay at two units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have continued to pound the Falcons. Philadelphia is now -1.5 in some books. I still like Atlanta +1 (at Bovada) for two units.

The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.

The Falcons are well ahead of everyone in the division, while the Eagles are more desperate.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

An absurd amount of action on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 70% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Eagles are 20-33 ATS at home since 2010.

Opening Line: Eagles -1.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Eagles 24, Falcons 22
Eagles +1 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 50 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 24, Falcons 15

Minnesota Vikings (5-3) at Washington Redskins (4-3-1)
Line: Redskins by 2.5. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Redskins -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Vikings -1.
Sunday, Nov 13, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Vikings.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Five years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for the 2013 season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses. In 2014, Donald Sterling answered spammers.

Last year, Tom Brady and his deflated footballs were involved. You can see those Spam Mails here with my responses to avoid clutter. I’ll have brand new spam mail responses every week!

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins should’ve won in London, but they tied because of a missed chip-shot field goal. Making matters worse, it was announced that Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams would be suspended for four games. Williams is one of the best blind-side protectors in the business, so there’s very little doubt that he’ll be missed, especially against a stellar front like Minnesota’s.

Someone named Ty Nsekhe will replace Williams, and it’s difficult to imagine him performing on a high level against Everson Griffen, one of the top pass-rushers in the NFL. It’s not like the Redskins will be able to help Nsekhe very much, given that they’ll also have to worry about Linval Joseph and Danielle Hunter crashing the pocket. Kirk Cousins could struggle to find his targets as a result, and it’s not like he had an easy matchup to begin with. The stellar Minnesota cornerbacks figure to shut down his cornerbacks, while Eric Kendricks’ expected return from concussion will help the Vikings defend Jordan Reed.

The Redskins will have to establish the run to keep Cousins clean. The Vikings have surrendered a big gain once every game recently, but overall, they defend the rush fairly well. Robert Kelley has been named the starting running back, and it’ll be difficult for him to find lanes without Williams paving the way for him.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Like the Redskins, the Vikings are going to have issues keeping Washington’s pass rush out of the backfield. Ryan Kerrigan has a dream matchup, as he’ll be going up against the beleaguered T.J. Clemmings. If Minnesota isn’t careful, it could surrender half-a-dozen sacks to Kerrigan alone!

The Vikings, under new coordinator Pat Shurmur, have tried to counter the poor protection by having Bradford release the ball quicker. It worked somewhat well, as Minnesota averaged 5.0 yards per play against Detroit – its highest such total since Week 5. Sure, the Vikings were battling the Lions, but it’s not like the Redskins have a dominant defense either. They have some issues in their secondary, while they’ve proven susceptible to tight ends, as Tyler Eifert demonstrated in London. I expect Kyle Rudolph and the receiver not covered by Josh Norman (likely Adam Thielen) to perform well in this contest.

There’s also a chance the Vikings could get something out of their ground attack. I know that may seem unlikely, given that Ronnie Hillman, Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata are all unspectacular, but the Redskins have been abysmal versus the rush this season. I’m just saying there’s a chance that the law firm of Hillman, McKinnon and Asiata won’t be completely incompetent for once. Partially incompetent is a major upgrade!

RECAP: It’s crazy how the media is completely writing off the Vikings, saying that they have no chance to reach the playoffs. Sure, their offense is shot, but they still have an oustanding defense, which will be better this week, assuming Kendricks returns from his concussion. Besides, the Vikings had the victory against the Lions last week prior to a 58-yard field goal at the end of regulation. A miss there, and the Vikings would be 6-2. No one would be saying anything about them had they prevailed.

Public and media reaction is built into the spread, however, and that’s very apparent here. The Redskins were -1.5 prior to Sunday’s games. A few weeks earlier, the Vikings probably would’ve been -3, just as they were in Philadelphia. Now, Washington is laying three, which seems insane to me. The Redskins have a poor homefield advantage, as they’ve been just 12-17 against the spread as hosts since 2013, being outscored 25.9-22.1 on an average line of +0.4. Thus, I’m willing to give them just one point for being hosts. I think the Vikings are a point better than the Redskins under normal circumstances; two points with Trent Williams out of the lineup. Thus, I believe Minnesota should be -1 in this matchup.

We’re getting four points of value and going through a key number of +3 in this contest, which is huge. Plus, the public is pounding the Redskins. A good time to buy into stocks is when everyone thinks the sky is falling, and the sky is certainly falling in Minnesota, at least according to the media. Things certainly aren’t all that dire though, and the Vikings have a great defense that will keep them in the game, so it’s difficult to imagine them losing by more than a field goal to a slightly lesser opponent missing its top player.

This is the first time the Vikings have been underdogs since Week 3, and I like them in this role much better. I considered wagering five units on them in this contest, but I’ll stick with four for now and think about adding a fifth later.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Ugh, I missed this one. I should’ve locked in +3, but those numbers are all gone. I guess +3 -135 could still be had at Bovada, but I don’t like that very much. I’m going to hold out hope that this spread rebounds, but given that the sharps are on Minnesota, that doesn’t seem too likely.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps have been pounding the Vikings, unfortunately. The line of +3 is no longer available, so unless it returns Sunday morning, I’m going to drop this to three units. I loved the value at +3, but not so much at +2.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m waiting for this to jump back up to -3. The Redskins are -2.5 -113 at Pinnacle right now, which is a sign that the books could move to -3. If there’s an update to this, I’ll tweet it out.

FINAL-FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve been watching this line all morning. The Redskins rose to -2.5 -120 in most books, but it never hit +3 -110 or -115. However, BetUS and 5Dimes are offering Vikings +3 -125, which I’ll take, as it protects against an overtime session, which I think is pretty realistic. This is going to be a defensive struggle, so I think getting +3 is important.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

No one wants any part of the Vikings anymore.

Percentage of money on Washington: 66% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Mike Zimmer is 29-12 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Opening Line: Redskins -2.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Vikings 23, Redskins 17
Vikings +3 -125 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$500
Under 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Redskins 26, Vikings 20

Green Bay Packers (4-4) at Tennessee Titans (4-5)
Line: Packers by 3. Total: 49.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -1.5.
Sunday, Nov 13, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Packers.

Video of the Week: With the election today, I thought that this would be a great time to remind everyone that humans aren’t the only ones who lean one way or another in terms of political views. For instance, this guy’s dog is a democrat:

I’m almost positive George Soros has arranged for the ride into town to happen. Speaking of Soros, he’s planning on rigging the election, so I’m going to place one unit on Hillary Clinton -550, which I’ll make official on the next page under the props/teasers section.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers losing to the Colts outright at home may seem like another fixed outcome created by Soros, but there’s been something wrong with the Packers for quite a while. They took it to another level against the Colts, however, as they seemed to lack enthusiasm on the sidelines. Something needs to change, but perhaps the prospect of falling to 4-5 will be the swift kick in the a** they sorely need.

Aaron Rodgers has been inconsistent with his accuracy dating back to early last season, but perhaps he’ll have another great performance like the one he enjoyed at Atlanta two weeks ago. The Titans have an awful secondary waiting to be exposed. With Randall Cobb a week healthier, the Packers should be able to take advantage of this liability.

The Titans have been able to nullify their secondary at times by putting heavy pressure on the quarterback with Brian Orakpo, Derrick Morgan and Jurrell Casey. It’ll be difficult for them to do that, however, given that Rodgers is protected extremely well, and he’ll be able to move around and scramble for positive yardage on the rare occasions in which he needs to do so.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Speaking of inconsistent quarterbacks, Marcus Mariota’s ups and downs occur within each game. Sometimes, he drives his team down the field within seconds. On other occasions, he’s responsible for costly turnovers. He was guilty of two against the Chargers, and they were both returned for touchdowns.

Mariota will have every opportunity to play well. Like the Titans, Green Bay has a secondary that’s really struggling. Lack of talent isn’t the issue, but injuries are. Rishard Matthews is performing on a higher level recently, as is Kendall Wright, and the Packers could struggle to defend both of them. Delanie Walker also figures to have a hug performance. The Packers haven’t defended tight ends well at all this year, and Walker is the best player at the position they’ll have faced thus far in 2016.

The Packers should at least be able to stop the run, as they’ve done well versus ground attacks for most of the year. They struggled versus Frank Gore, but that, perhaps, was because they were so focused on defending Andrew Luck. They’ll pay much more attention to Murray.

RECAP: This is the game I probably have the least opinion on this week. I’ve actually gone back and forth on this one since I saw the spread late Sunday night. On one hand, a line of Packers -2.5 would be -8.5 (maybe actually -7.5) in Lambeau, which is too high. On the other hand, common sense has to prevail, and all Aaron Rodgers needs to do, for the most part, is win this game. Going back to the first hand, there’s so much public money on the Packers following a week in which the sportsbooks got murdered. On the other hand, once more, taking Rodgers following two consecutive losses seems like the smart thing to do.

As you can see, I don’t know where to go with this. I’m picking the Packers for now, but I could change my mind as the week progresses.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The public has pushed this up to Packers -2.5 -120 or -3 -105 depending where you look. I was very unsure of this game at -2.5, but at -3, I actually like the Titans.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread hasn’t changed, as the Titans are either +2.5 or +3, depending on the book. I’m going to put a unit on Tennessee if it’s still +3 on Sunday morning. I’m not going to lock it in now because I’m hoping for +3 -110 instead of -115.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Waiting for a better number worked this time. The Titans are +3 +100 at Bovada. I’ve placed a unit on the home dog.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Everyone is betting the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 84% (19,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Aaron Rodgers is 72-45 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 32-22 ATS on the road as long as he’s not favored by 6.5 or more points.

Aaron Rodgers is 22-8 ATS after a loss (just 9-5 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Titans are 22-14 ATS in non-conference home games.

Opening Line: Packers -3.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Packers 22, Titans 21
Titans +3 +100 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 49.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Titans 47, Packers 25

Chicago Bears (2-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)
Line: Bears by 2.5. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Nov 13, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: .

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

I’ve been citing that Tom Brady has lost his “clutch” ability over the past few years, but I guess I can’t do that any longer because he recently won his fourth Super Bowl. Or, can I…? Brady, after all, reached the “Big Game” with the help of his deflated footballs.

Brady was stuck on three Super Bowls for a long time before he resorted to cheating. So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona or tells a new story. Including this one…

Tom Brady was given a new mission from Donald Trump. He was told to visit the neighboring country and convince them to build a wall in case Trump loses to Hillary Clinton. Tom needs to do this to keep the Latin Kings out of the country. To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: There’s actually no line on this game as of Tuesday afternoon. The concern is Jameis Winston, despite all reports indicating that he’s going to play. Winston left the Thursday night game with a knee injury, but he practiced without a brace on it Monday and appears to be ready to go. I get Vegas being cautious after what happened in the Steelers-Ravens fiasco last week, but I don’t think they need to worry.

Winston faces a tall task in this matchup, as Chicago’s defense has improved since the early stages of the season. Pernell McPhee is back in the lineup, and his presence made life extremely difficult for Sam Bradford last Monday night. He, Willie Young, and Akiem Hicks are all very adept at rushing the passer, and Winston is shielded by a shaky front that could be missing center Joe Hawley. The Buccaneers sputtered offensively without Hawley after he left Thursday’s game with a knee injury. He didn’t have any ligament damage, but he failed to practice Monday.

It’s also fair to wonder what sort of running game the Buccaneers will be able to utilize. There’s a chance one of Doug Martin or Jacquizz Rodgers could make it back this week, but it sounds like a Week 11 return is more likely. Without those two, Chicago figures to stop the ground attack pretty easily. The Bears have been pretty solid versus the run anyway.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: I can’t have been the only one who was shocked by Jay Cutler’s passion against the Vikings on Monday night. Cutler, who often looks like he’s watching paint dry, was inexplicably fired up. Will this continue? Was Cutler simply doing this because he’s auditioning for a new contract and doesn’t want other teams to remember that he doesn’t care?

Either way, Cutler has a terrific matchup against the Buccaneers. Tampa’s safeties are the worst, and they’ve been torched in almost every matchup this year. Cutler should be able to successfully air the ball out to Alshon Jeffery and Cameron Meredith. Zach Miller, meanwhile, could enjoy a big performance. Recall that Greg Olsen caught nine balls for 181 yards against Tampa in a Monday night game. I know that Miller isn’t nearly as talented as Olsen, but he should have ample opportunities.

The one positive aspect of Tampa’s defense is its ability to put the clamps on the run. The Buccaneers sell out to stop the rush, so I don’t see Jordan Howard picking up where he left off Monday night, though I imagine he’ll have some success as a receiver coming out of the backfield.

RECAP: I have no idea what this spread is going to be. None. Nothing would surprise me, from Buccaneers -3 to Bears -3. I’ll pencil in Chicago for now, but I’ll give a more concrete selection when a spread is posted. Check back, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

PICK POSTED: The spread has finally been posted. It opened pick, but sharp movement has quickly moved it to either -1 or -2, depending on where you look. My natural instinct was to take the Buccaneers at +1, but after some consideration, I think the Bears might be the right side. Tampa’s offensive line is a mess right now, with its left guard and center likely out for this contest. The Bears are healthier, and I think they can make a surge to close out the year. Unfortunately, there’s no line value here, so I don’t consider this a lucrative betting proposition.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bears are the other team that three of the top five contestants are taking in the Supercontest, but that’s because they got a line of pick em. I still don’t have much of a lean here.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Buccaneers are now available at +3 (albeit at -120), which just seems insane to me. I considered switching my pick to the Buccaneers, but it’s a bit late, so I’ll stay with my first instinct.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Lots of action on the Bears from both the public and sharps.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 68% (4,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

Road Team is 71-41 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Jay Cutler is 42-73 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Buccaneers are 16-41 ATS at home in the previous 57 instances.

Opening Line: .

Opening Total: .

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Bears 26, Buccaneers 23
Bears -2.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Buccaneers 36, Bears 10

Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games
Miami at San Diego, Dallas at Pittsburgh, San Francisco at Arizona, Seattle at New England, Cincinnati at NY Giants

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 13

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)