NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2016

NFL Picks (Preseason 2016): 12-7-1 (+$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2016): 13-3 (+$1,735) full review
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2016): 9-7 (-$430) full review
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2016): 7-7-2 (+$880) full review
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2016): 7-8 (-$70) full review
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2016): 6-7-1 (+$115) full review
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2016): 7-7-1 (+$515) full review
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2016): 11-4 (+$1,560) full review
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2016): 8-4-1 (-$60) full review
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2016): 5-6-2 (-$1,170)

NFL Picks (2016): 85-60-8 (+$4,365)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 14, 6:50 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 10 NFL Picks – Early Games

Miami Dolphins (4-4) at San Diego Chargers (4-5)
Line: Chargers by 4. Total: 49.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chargers -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chargers -3.
Sunday, Nov 13, 4:05 PM
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The Game. Edge: .

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Also, a reminder to make your pick for the WalterFootball.com 2016 NFL Survivor Pool if you’re still alive! We had 2,430 entries to start, with 412 entering Week 7. We’re now down to 158, thanks to the Vikings’ epic stink bomb last Monday night. Fourteen people lost with the Packers failing to beat the Colts.

Make sure to check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Philip Rivers has been on fire this season, so Miami will be tasked to somehow slow him down. The Dolphins have a terrific defensive line that will absolutely need to put pressure on him because their linebacking corps and secondary both aren’t very good. If Rivers gets time in the pocket, he’ll pick apart Miami’s anemic back seven.

The Dolphins will have a better chance of pressuring Rivers if Orlando Franklin is out. The left guard sustained a concussion against the Titans, but told the media Monday that he feels good. We’ll see if he suits up. If he does, the Dolphins will solely generate pressure on the right side, as Cameron Wake and Ndamukong Suh have a huge mismatch against the struggling Joseph Barksdale and D.J. Fluker. Rivers had similar issues with pressure against the Broncos, and while he had some success in moving the chains, San Diego’s offense sputtered as a result.

The Chargers should at least be able to move the chains on the ground effectively. The Dolphins have been weak against the rush this year, while Melvin Gordon is one of the hottest running backs in the NFL. Gordon is arguably the top rusher in the AFC, and he’s coming off a terrific performance against the Titans, who have been better against ground attacks than Miami this season.

MIAMI OFFENSE: While the Chargers figure to have issues blocking, the Dolphins won’t have as much of a problem – at least not in terms of opening running lanes for Jay Ajayi. As with Gordon, Ajayi figures to have a good game. San Diego is solid versus the run, but Ajayi just eclipsed the century mark versus the Jets, who are also strong against ground attacks. Ajayi has improved markedly ever since Branden Albert, Mike Pouncey and Laremy Tunsil all returned to the field, and I expect him to continue performing on a high level while all three are healthy.

Pass protection could be an issue, however. That’s because Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram have been so terrific at generating a pass rush. Bosa has been a revelation ever since becoming a full-time player following his holdout, and his presence has helped Ingram. The Dolphins have a quality offensive line, but they’ll have issues with Bosa and Ingram.

If Ryan Tannehill is under siege often, it could be an issue for the Dolphins’ chances of maintaining consistent drives. San Diego has two stellar cornerbacks in Casey Hayward and Brandon Flowers, so Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker figure to be limited again.

RECAP: This seems like it’s going to be a grindy, defensive battle. That makes me look at the underdog, and I think this spread is overpriced by a point anyway. I have the Dolphins listed at +3, which may seem low until San Diego’s lacking homefield advantage is factored in.

That said, it’s close, and it’s difficult to fully trust Tannehill. I’m going to list a small play on the Dolphins, but the Chargers are a very good team, so I can see a scenario in which they cover even though they aren’t the right side. This just occurred against the Titans, so perhaps I’m just scarred from the bad luck I endured last week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing has changed for me regarding this game, though it’s worth noting that +4 -105 is currently available at Bovada. I don’t think this line will move up to the next key number, +6, so I’ll lock in +4 -105 for two units.

SATURDAY NOTES: This line has moved up to +4.5, but I’m fine with +4 -105. I’ll only feel bad about this if the spread reaches +6.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The spread hasn’t moved up at all past -4.5, which isn’t too much of a surprise. I wish I could’ve gotten +4.5 -105 (Bovada), but it’s not a big deal.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

Everyone is now on the Chargers bandwagon.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 77% (4,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Underdog is 71-39 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 110 games.

Dolphins are 20-7 ATS as a road underdog of less than 5 since 2008.

Opening Line: Chargers -4.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Chargers 22, Dolphins 20
Dolphins +4 -105 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 49.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Dolphins 31, Chargers 24

San Francisco 49ers (1-7) at Arizona Cardinals (3-4-1)
Line: Cardinals by 14. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -11.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cardinals -12.
Sunday, Nov 13, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 9! Season 8 saw Emmitt going to North Korea to stop Kim Jong-un from destroying the world. It featured a mind-blowing twist at the very end that you absolutely need to check out if you haven’t already.

Season 9 will deal with election stuff, and it begins with something strange happening to Emmitt while he’s stuck in traffic at a protest rally. In the ninth chapter, Emmitt is trapped for a long time in his prison cell. Will he be able to escape the League of Failed General Managers’ compound?

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: As I mentioned in the NFL Game Recaps page, I had the 49ers-Saints contest on in the background, and I constantly heard the FOX announcers rant and rave about how much better Colin Kaepernick had been playing. And then, I saw the replay of what they were ranting and raving about, and Kaepernick was standing in the pocket, amid no pass rush, throwing passes to wide-open receivers. Wow, soooo impressive.

The Saints struggle to get to the quarterback consistently and leave players open. The Cardinals don’t do that. The 49ers have huge liabilities at guard and right tackle that Calais Campbell and Markus Golden will easily exploit. Kaepernick will have to make quicker decisions, which is never a good thing, and he’ll be throwing into a secondary and linebacking corps comprised of talented players.

The only chance the 49ers have is for Carlos Hyde to return to action so they can rely on him more than Kaepernick. It’s unclear if Hyde will be able to suit up, as he was still wearing his non-contact jersey in Monday’s practice, but it’s still early in the week.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Hyde could have a decent game he plays, but it’ll pale in comparison to David Johnson’s expected performance. Johnson is one of the top running backs in the NFL. The 49ers have the worst run defense in the NFL. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if Johnson actually breaks the single-game rushing record and eclipses the 300-yard barrier!

Carson Palmer may not actually have to do anything. If he does, however, he’ll have an easy time against the 49ers, whose pass rush is extremely limited. Pass protection has been a big issue for the Cardinals ever since they lost Evan Mathis and Jared Veldheer, but San Francisco doesn’t have the personnel to take advantage of that. Palmer figures to have all the time he needs to find his talented weapons downfield.

RECAP: Where do you go in a matchup where you have to decide between a horrible team and a horrible spread? That’s the dilemma here. The 49ers are the worst team in the NFL, so it’s no surprise that they haven’t covered the spread since their fluky Week 1 victory. On the other hand, the Cardinals are not a good team either, and I think a line of 13.5 is pretty unreasonable, even against the 49ers.

I definitely would not advocate placing a wager on the 49ers, or anything, but I would take them in a picking pool. The number is just way too high, and I could see Kaepernick throwing (or running in) a back-door touchdown.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As mentioned on the picks podcast, large underdogs like this have enjoyed a high covering rate over the years, but fared poorly in 2015. I’d avoid this contest entirely.

SportsLine’s Micah Roberts is 22-6 in college football Over-Under picks this season (+1534 profit). He’s also won his last 5 NFL Over-Under picks. You can get all of his plays by visiting SportsLine.com.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m not going to have much to say about this game. The line has reached +14, but I still have no urge to take the 49ers. I thought about what it would take me to place a single unit on San Francisco, and I think I’d need +17 at the very least.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I have no thoughts on this game, so how can I have final thoughts? This spread has stopped moving up at -14. Thus, this spread isn’t worth betting.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

A good amount of bets on the Cardinals, but not all of it is public.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 65% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: Cardinals have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Bruce Arians is 34-24 ATS as head coach of the Cardinals.

Cardinals are 4-13 ATS as favorites of 7.5 or more the previous 17 instances.

Opening Line: Cardinals -12.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Cardinals 38, 49ers 27
49ers +14 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cardinals 23, 49ers 20

Dallas Cowboys (7-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4)
Line: Steelers by 2.5. Total: 50.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Roethlisberger).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -3.
Sunday, Nov 13, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Steelers.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is about the Grub Burger Bar.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers were anemic offensively against the Ravens, at least until the very end when Ben Roethlisberger got into a groove. It wasn’t anything Baltimore was doing; Roethlisberger, rather, wasn’t 100 percent. This was expected, as Roethlisberger is now 2-6 in his first game back from injury. He often returns a week too early, and Pittsburgh suffers as a result.

Roethlisberger will be able to use his momentum from the end of last week’s contest to perform well in this one. Roethlisberger will definitely be closer to complete health with another week of recovery time. With that in mind, Roethlisberger’s matchup looks appealing. The Cowboys are missing Morris Claiborne and Barry Church in the secondary. The Browns couldn’t take advantage of this because they ran just 14 offensive snaps in the second half of last week’s game. Roethlisberger has a ton of excellent weapons at his disposal, so he’ll be able to move the chains effectively versus Dallas.

Le’Veon Bell figures to have a strong performance as well. The Cowboys are just a middling team when it comes to stopping the run, and yet, they’ve battled only one team with a strong rushing attack thus far in 2016. That would be the 49ers, and Carlos Hyde rushed for 74 yards and a touchdown on only 15 carries. Hyde didn’t get more attempts because Chip Kelly isn’t very smart. The Steelers will make sure to give Bell plenty of opportunities.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys will obviously try to establish the run themselves with Ezekiel Elliott in an attempt to play keep-away. That’s been their M.O. this season, and I don’t see why they suddenly would shy away from that strategy.

The Steelers, however, have a realistic chance of being able to somewhat limit Elliott. It’s impossible to completely contain Elliott because his offensive line is so great, but the Steelers have been stout versus the rush this season when their best defensive player, Cameron Heyward, has been in the lineup. Heyward returned from injury last week and should be even better in his second game back.

Where Pittsburgh falters is aerial defense, and that will be an issue against the Cowboys. The Steelers’ pass-rushers won’t be able to pressure Dak Prescott very much, thanks to the exceptional offensive line. Thus, Pittsburgh’s cornerbacks and linebackers will be exposed. Dez Bryant figures to rebound, while Jason Witten should have a great performance against a linebacking corps that has allowed some big performances to tight ends this year.

RECAP: All I hear when people discuss this line is how it should be a pick, or that Dallas should even be favored. Meanwhile, a couple of people in the comment section of my NFL Power Rankings criticized me for ranking the Steelers third, despite the fact that Pittsburgh is 4-1 with a healthy Roethlisberger. This piqued my curiosity, so I checked out some of the n00b sites to see where they had Pittsburgh. ESPN slotted the Steelers ninth, which is too low, but not overly egregious. Then, I checked NFL.com…

They ranked Pittsburgh 20th!

I nearly choked on some Cocoa Puffs I was eating when I saw that. What the hell are those bozos thinking? Again, the Steelers are 4-1 with a healthy Roethlisberger, and he should be close to 100 percent this week. Heyward is also back in the lineup. Pittsburgh is one of the top teams in the NFL, without question, as long as Roethlisberger is fine.

With that in mind, my projected line for this game is -3, as Dallas and Pittsburgh are pretty close to even. The Steelers are underpriced because of public and media stupidity, and because we’re able to go through a key number, I’m going to wager three units on Pittsburgh. This feels like the ultimate “Vegas recoups its money” game. The books could’ve set this line at pick or Cowboys -1, and still have gotten a ton of action on Dallas. The books are begging for people like the power-rankings commenters to bet the Cowboys, and they’re falling for it, as casual bettors completely ignore the fact that this game is so much more important for the Steelers, who will be doing everything in their power to avoid a 4-5 start.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still like the Steelers a lot, and nothing has changed. This spread hasn’t moved at all despite the public continuing to pound the Cowboys like crazy.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps are all over the Steelers, and they’ve pushed this spread up to -3, though you can still get -2 at Bovada and -2.5 at a couple of books.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread is either -2 -120 (Bovada), -2.5 -135 (5Dimes) or -3 -105 at BetUS/Cris. I think there’s a good chance this spread pushes, so I’d rather take the Bovada line. Once again, the sharps are all over Pittsburgh.

The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.

The Cowboys are well ahead of everyone in the NFC, while the Steelers will be desperate to avoid 4-5.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.
The Cowboys are a public underdog.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 61% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

The underdog is 65-38 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Cowboys are 31-20 ATS as an underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Steelers -3.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Steelers 28, Cowboys 24
Steelers -2 -120 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$360
Over 50.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cowboys 35, Steelers 30

Seattle Seahawks (5-2-1) at New England Patriots (7-1)
Line: Patriots by 8. Total: 50.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -7.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -5.5.
Sunday, Nov 13, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: None.

Trolling will continue. I can’t attack the NFL.com or ESPN boards because the fascist scum working at Facebook prevented me from making posts that others besides my friends can see. They’ve also been penalizing the other trolls. However, I have been hitting up the team pages on Facebook. Here’s a short one:

I had trouble getting Buffalo fans to react to my posts. I must have written on the Bills team page about five times, yet there were no responses. Yet, just as I was about to give up, there was this:

When Buffalo fans weren’t responding to me, I assumed it was because they were drunk and assumed that Mario was typing normally. I’m glad to see that all Bills supporters aren’t insanely intoxicated!

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Russell Wilson endured a rough first half of the season. He sustained a knee injury in the opener against the Dolphins. He got banged up a couple more times and was severely limited in a couple of contests this year, namely at the Rams and Cardinals. He was at an all-time low at Arizona. He struggled to complete basic passes, as he was clearly bothered by all his maladies.

Wilson, however, looked like a new man against the Bills. He wasn’t completely 100 percent, but he seemed reinvigorated, and his passing ability was excellent. He torched the Bills mercilessly, and he figures to do he same against the Patriots, who haven’t battled a team with a potent aerial attack yet this year. Take a look at the quarterbacks the Patriots have been matched up against this season: Declining Carson Palmer, Ryan Tannehill, Brock Osweiler, Tyrod Taylor (twice), Charlie Whitehurst, Andy Dalton and Landry Jones. What a list! Palmer is having his worst year in quite a while, and yet he’s the best signal-caller New England has gone up against.

I expect Wilson to engineer tons of scoring drives, though some possessions will surely be disrupted by pressure. Wilson’s offensive line still sucks, as George Fant desperately needs to be replaced. Luckily for the Seahawks, New England doesn’t really have a quality pass rush.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Seahawks haven’t been as potent defensively either lately, and that’s also been because of injury. They’ve been missing Kam Chancellor and Michael Bennett, but reports indicate that Chancellor will be good to go. That’s extremely important, as Chancellor’s absence has prompted Seattle to blow tons of coverages. You better believe that Tom Brady was just dying to torch Chancellor’s replacement, but it sounds as though he won’t be able to do that now.

Brady, of course, will still have a good game. He’ll find Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and his other weapons for substantial gains. It’s just impossible to stop. However, Seattle’s pass rush should be able to give Brady issues. There are some liabilities up front, so I expect Frank Clark and Cliff Avril to generate heavy heat on Brady.

I have to think that Bill Belichick will have his offense establish the run as effectively as possible. The other injury to Seattle’s defense is to Bennett, and he’s not due back. The Seahawks have struggled versus the rush since, so LeGarrette Blount could have a big game.

RECAP: I’ve posted two four-unit plays thus far. This was almost the third, but I changed my mind and made it five units. I absolutely love Seattle.

This spread is too high. I have the Seahawks at +5.5. Both of these teams are in the top five of my NFL Power Rankings, so believing that one team is anything more than 2.5 points ahead of the other seems kind of silly.

I honestly don’t understand why this line is so high. Patriots -7.5 is absolutely absurd. And yet, the public is pounding them like crazy! It’s unbelievable.

But Walt, the Patriots are dominant, you may think. Really? How dominant are they, exactly? What have they done that’s so impressive with Brady back under center? Let’s review… They began by beating the Browns, 33-13, in a game in which Charlie Whitehurst played three quarters. Next, they defeated the Bengals, 35-17, but Cincinnati was up 14-10 in the third quarter before imploding. The Bengals moved the chains well against New England until the very end. The week after, the Patriots slew the Steelers, 27-16. Landry Jones started that game, so that victory means nothing. And finally, the Patriots beat the Bills, 41-25, but LeSean McCoy was out of the lineup. We all saw how important McCoy was to Buffalo in the Monay night affair.

Look, I’m not saying the Patriots aren’t a great team. They definitely are. They’re atop my power rankings. I just don’t think they’re invincible, and I certainly don’t believe that they should be laying more than a touchdown against a top-five opponent. The Seahawks, aiming to achieve Super Bowl revenge, seem like the obvious side to me, especially when considering that ever since Russell Wilson took over as starter, they’ve only lost two games by more than a touchdown. This game will be close, and so the Seahawks will almost certainly cover – and perhaps even win outright.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I think this line might be creeping downward, given that the Patriots are -7.5 +103 at Pinnacle, the sharpest book on the Web. That’s an indication that this line could be headed toward +7. I’m not going to lock in this pick yet though, but I might have an update tonight. I’m holding out for +8. It’s currently +7.5 -105 at Bovada.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Seahawks are +8 -115 at Bovada, which I’ll lock in for five units. My reasoning is that the Patriots are now just -7.5 +100 in most places, so it seems like this number will fall to -7 shortly.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I messed up a bit by locking this in early, as the Seahawks are available at +8 -110 at Bovada right now. It’s +7.5 elsewhere. The public is betting the Patriots at a two-to-one rate right now. The sharps, however, haven’t pounced on Seattle. The pros are favoring the Seahawks slightly, but there’s not much action coming in on the visitor.

The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.

This is Seattle’s first chance at Super Bowl revenge.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

People are betting the Patriots like it’s free money.

Percentage of money on New England: 75% (72,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Russell Wilson is 11-4 ATS as an underdog.

Seahawks are 31-41 ATS on the road since 2006 if they’re not coming off an away loss.

Seahawks are 7-14 ATS on the road vs. teams that average 24+ ppg since 2007.

Tom Brady is 191-64 as a starter (145-105 ATS).

Opening Line: Seahawks -7.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Patriots 24, Seahaws 23
Seahawks +8 -115 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Under 50 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 31, Patriots 24

Cincinnati Bengals (3-4-1) at New York Giants (5-3)
Line: Giants by 1. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Giants -2.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Monday, Nov 14, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: Bengals.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have some bald dude and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and aloof people like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of New York, where tonight, the New York Vagiants battle the Cleveland Browns. Guys, the Vagiants are a bunch of tools and I want to murder Eli Manning for making the Eagles lose on Sunday. That’s why I bought this baseball bat and stuck a bunch of needles on it with Elmer’s glue. Now, I will bash players in the head like that guy from the Walking Dead. Mother doesn’t let me watch that show because it’s too scary, but she fell asleep early and I turned it on. Ha!

Emmitt: Neagan, I do not like the show the Dead Walking. First of all not everyone who walk on the show are dead. Some guy like Rick not dead. Darius not dead either and he shoot people with a bone and arrow. And then there Karl Malone, who missing the eyeball. Where do the eyeball go? Did someone eat the eyeball?

Herm: THE EYEBALL WASN’T EATEN! THE EYEBALL WASN’T DEVOURED! THE EYEBALL WASN’T SWALLOWED! THE EYEBALL WASN’T CONSUMED! THE EYEBALL WASN’T DIGESTED! IT WAS SHOT! THERE WAS A SHOT! BANG! KARL MALONE’S EYE GONE! I MEAN, KARL’S EYE GONE! WHERE DID I GET MALONE FROM!? WHY DID HERM SAY KARL MALONE!? IF KARL MALONE’S ON THE SHOW, WHERE’S JOHN STOCKTON AT!? WHERE’S JOHN STOCKTON!? SHOW ME JOHN STOCKTON!? WHERE CAN I FIND JOHN STOCKTON!? WHY’S HERM LOOKING FOR JOHN STOCKTON!? WHY!? Uhh… umm…

Tollefson: Herm, if John Stockton were smart, he would kidnap all the women in Utah and make them his wife, so they can all cook and clean naked for him. That’s what I would do if I were Rick. I’d kidnap Rosita and make her cook and clean naked for me because she’s worthless otherwise. Then, I would have her sell fake lottery tickets for me.

Millen: Forget Rosita. How about Abraham? Oh boy, what a 1,000-percent USDA Man! I would stuff 10 of the hugest kielbasas into his backside if I were in a zombie apocalypse with him. And the best part is that he probably has great, red pubes that I would roll the kielbasas in, and then he would stuff them into my backside.

Wolfley: YOU CLEARLY HAVEN’T WATCHED THIS SEASON YET. MY FAVORITE CHARACTER IS ZOMBIE NO. 8 FROM THE THIRD EPISODE OF THE THIRD SEASON. I THINK HE DID A GREAT JOB BEING A ZOMBIE. I EVEN MODELED MY ZOMBIE SKILLS AFTER HIS, AND NOW I ACT LIKE A ZOMBIE EVERY THIRD TUESDAY.

Fouts: And here’s what he means by acting like a zombie, just in case you’ve never see the Walking Dead. In that show, when you die, you become a zombie. And by die, I mean that you no longer live. And by no longer live, I mean that you died somehow. Anyway, there are lots of people in the group. There’s Rick, who was a police officer. That means he was a cop, and he can arrest the zombies if they’re being bad. Then, there’s Maggie, who was a farmer’s daughter. This means that she was a daughter of a farmer. You see, there was a farmer, and he had a daughter, and named her Maggie, and she became the daughter of a farmer. That’s because she was a daughter, and her father was a farmer, so therefore, she became a farmer’s daughter. OK, let me see if I can explain it better…

Reilly: Shut up, already, Fouts, or I’ll bash in your skull with my bat with nails. Hark, here comes Eli Manning. Ha! Take that, Eli! I will shut that s*** down, Eli! Ha! Taking it like a champ, Eli! Ha!

Charles Davis’ Voice: It’s funny that you should say that, Kevin. Let’s talk about other players you can kill, Kevin. How about Rashad Jennings, Kevin? What about Odell Beckham, Kevin? Let’s discuss Victor Cruz, Kevin…

Tollefson: Where the hell is that voice coming from? Wasn’t Charles Davis taken away by Hillary Clinton’s security detail for talking about her various scandals last week?

Reilly: WHO THE F*** CARES!? TAKE THAT, ELI!!! HAHAHA! Oh s***, that wasn’t Eli. That was just some guy wearing a Giants jersey. OH WELL, SERVES HIM RIGHT FOR LIKING THE VAGIANTS, AND I’LL KEEP BEATING HIM WITH MY BAT WITH NAILS, HAHAHAHA! We’ll be back after this!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Eli Manning was not beaten by a Lucille replica, so he’ll be on the field against the Bengals, whose ailing secondary has been roughed up in the first half of the season. Perhaps they’ve done something to change that during the bye, but Reggie Nelson’s departure and Pacman Jones’ declining skill set has made it easy to throw on Cincinnati.

Manning hasn’t enjoyed consistent success this season, but it’s apparent that he has a great matchup against Cincinnati’s defensive backfield, which doesn’t stand a chance against Odell Beckham Jr, The question, however, is whether or not Manning will receive the appropriate amount of protection from his offensive line, which has struggled this season. That’s a legitimate concern, especially with stud guard Justin Pugh out of the lineup. It doesn’t seem like the Giants will be able to block Geno Atkins or Carlos Dunlap.

The Bengals can focus on teeing off on Manning because they don’t have to worry about the Giants’ rushing attack. New York’s run blocking is atrocious, and neither Rashad Jennings nor Paul Perkins is good enough to overcome that.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals will be better on this side of the ball in the second half of the year, for sure. That’s because Tyler Eifert is 100 percent once again. We saw what Eifert was capable of in London when he ate Washington’s linebackers alive. New York’s linebackers struggled to cover Zach Ertz last week, so I like Eifert’s chances of having a huge game.

Andy Dalton figures to play well in general. The Giants don’t have the most consistent pass rush, and Cincinnati has just one liability on the offensive line, which is at right tackle. Unlike last week, the Giants will have to worry about a dominant receiver beating them in A.J. Green. Josh Norman even struggled against the dynamic wideout, and I don’t see anyone in the Giants’ secondary limiting him.

What New York does well is stop the run, so Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard could have issues picking up yardage on the ground. However, I expect Bernard to have some decent gains as a receiver leaking out of the backfield.

RECAP: I mentioned earlier that I was frustrated that most of these lines were tight. I was hoping for Bengals +3 here, which I would’ve taken for three or so units. After all, I think this should be close to a pick em.

Unfortunately, we’re not getting much line value. I still like the Bengals a bit, but not nearly as much as I wanted to. The Giants are perhaps the most overrated team in the NFL, as their 5-3 record is a joke. They’ve been outplayed by the Eagles, Rams and Ravens in their past three games, and they easily could’ve lost all three. What would this spread be had New York dropped two of those contests and currently happened to be 3-5?

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I mentioned on the podcast that the Bengals were +3 for exactly one minute. Some big bets came in on them in those 60 seconds, dropping the line to +2. That has continued to happen, as this spread is pick in most places, though still +1 at Bovada. The sharps have recognized that the Giants are incredibly overrated. Unfortunately, there isn’t much spread value remaining. Congrats to the lucky SOBs who got +3!

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps continue to pound the Bengals, who are now favored in some books. It sucks that all our line value is gone, but I still like the Bengals for a small play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I liked the Bengals for a unit when this spread was +2. This line has dropped, however, despite the public action coming in on the Giants. This line is now anywhere from Bengals -1 (BetUS) to pick (CRIS, 5Dimes) to Giants -1 (Bovada), thanks to some sharp movement. The Bengals are the better team. The Giants have been extremely lucky all year, while Cincinnati should be better with Tyler Eifert back. Unfortunately, all the line value is gone, so at +1/PK/-1, I’m going to drop from a unit to half of a unit. And yes, I’m factoring in my weekly record into this, as I’d like to finish in the black. Call me a chicken wuss all you want, but after a dreadful Week 9, I’d like to rebound.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

Public money has come in on the Giants on Monday night.

Percentage of money on New York: 67% (55,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Bengals are 32-18 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Marvin Lewis is 11-13 ATS in nationally televised regular-season games.

Opening Line: Giants -3.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Bengals 20, Giants 17
Bengals +1 (0.5 Units) — Push; $0
Under 49 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Giants 21, Bengals 20

Week 10 NFL Picks – Early Games
Cleveland at Baltimore, Kansas City at Carolina, Houston at Jacksonville, Minnesota at Washington, Atlanta at Philadelphia, Denver at New Orleans, Los Angeles at NY Jets, Green Bay at Tennessee, Chicago at Tampa Bay

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Election/George Soros Fix: Hillary Clinton -550 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$550

Moneyline: Browns +290 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Teaser: Texans +8.5, Vikings +8.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100

Moneyline: Chiefs +150 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$75

Moneyline: Dolphins +180 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$90

Moneyline: Seahawks +280 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$280

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2024): 6-7 (-$1,275)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 2-2 (+$65)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 1-3 (-$905)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2024): 6-7-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2024): -$435

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 78-79-6, 49.7% (-$4,565)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 19-25-1, 43.2% (-$1,180)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 15-17, 46.9% (-$1,555)
2024 Season Over-Under: 76-74-2, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$165

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)