NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2015

NFL Picks (Preseason 2015): 7-10-1 (-$1,420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2015): 10-6 (+$940)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2015): 9-7 (-$895)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2015): 7-9 (-$870)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2015): 6-8-1 (-$360)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2015): 6-6-2 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2015): 5-8-1 (-$690)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2015): 4-9-1 (-$860)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2015): 5-8-1 (+$520)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2015): 8-5 (+$280)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2015): 6-8 (-$610)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2015): 5-6-3 (-$2,010)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2015): 6-10 (-$1,050)

NFL Picks (2015): 84-100-6 (-$6,970)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 7, 5:55 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 13 NFL Picks – Late Games

Green Bay Packers (7-4) at Detroit Lions (4-7)
Line: Packers by 3. Total: 46.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Packers -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Lions -1.5.
Thursday, Dec 3, 8:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Lions.

WEEK 12 RECAP: I went 6-10, -$1,050 this past week, meaning I’m 11-26-3, -$3,060 over the past couple of weeks. That’s incredible, if you think about it. How can someone be so incompetent at picking games, when in reality, it should just be a coin flip?

I’m not overly upset right now, however. I was distraught going into the Denver-New England game, but getting the Broncos to hit for three units lifted my spirits. Sure, I got help from Tony Corrente, one of the Four Horsemen of the Week 12 Officiating Apocalypse, but it was nice to see a 50-50 contest go my way for once. Besides, the Broncos happened to outgain the Patriots by about 100 yards, and they averaged 0.7 more yards per play. The Broncos and Patriots played evenly for the most part, but the fluky Brock Osweiler interception that was tipped at the line of scrimmage appeared as though it was going to be the difference, since it set up New England with a quick touchdown. I mean, that game could’ve gone either way, but I lucked out with a big wager for the first time in a while, so that was nice.

Anyway, the reason I’m not so pessimistic this week is because if the Thanksgiving games are excluded, I went 6-7, -$500. That’s still bad, but I feel as though I deserved to win the Tennessee game. The Titans had the victory in the bag, but Jeff Triplette, another horseman of the Week 12 Officiating Apocalypse, called a phantom holding penalty on a defender who not only had nothing to do with the play; but also didn’t even touch the Oakland receiver. It wasn’t a graze, or a light bump. B.W. Webb didn’t even touch the Raider he was guarding. It was ridiculous.

Had the Titans covered, I would’ve gone 7-6, +$160 after Thanksgiving, which I would’ve been fine with. As mentioned last week, I spent all of Friday poring over everything and trying to figure out what I’ve been doing wrong, and for the first time in a while, I’m confident in what I’m doing. Whether or not the bad beats continue is another story, but I’m suddenly finding myself feeling confident that I’ll be on the right side more often than not.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I guess the Packers’ victory at Minnesota was a mirage? I thought they’d turn things around, and that sort of thinking ended up costing me three units Thanksgiving night. Green Bay was once again lethargic, moving the chains sporadically because of poor blocking and tons of drops.

Why would the Packers suddenly improve now? They even have more issues up front currently in the wake of Bryan Bulaga’s latest injury. It’s unknown if Bulaga will play, and even if he does, he could be limited. He may even leave the game early, which would be disastrous because replacement Don Barclay is so much worse. Detroit has a ferocious pass rush, and I don’t know how the Packers are going to deal with Ziggy Ansah, who was dominant on Thanksgiving.

Green Bay will try to run the ball with Eddie Lacy once again to relieve pressure, but it won’t have much success moving the chains on the ground. The Lions have been stellar against the run since their bye, limiting the opposition to just 3.21 YPC in their past four games.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions have also improved offensively, as they’re finally living up to their expectations. With Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate on one unit, many thought that Detroit would post tons of points, but that didn’t happen under Joe Lombardi. Jim Bob Cooter has been a huge upgrade, and it’s helped that the offensive line has improved.

The Packers have a strong pass rush, as they’re tied for the fifth-most sacks in the NFL. Teddy Bridgewater learned this the hard way. Stafford will be challenged to escape pressure, and if this matchup happened back in Week 4 or 5, he’d have no chance. Things are different now, however, and Stafford will have some time on occasion to locate Megatron and Tate to move the chains. I wouldn’t expect an offensive explosion, however.

Fortunately for Green Bay, it can focus on the pass exclusively, as the Lions still don’t run the ball very well. The Packers are 10th versus the rush anyway, so they won’t have much of an issue containing Joique Bell and Ameer Abdullah.

RECAP: I’ve lost countless units betting either on or against the Packers during the past month that I can’t justify any sort of wager here. No matter what I do, it seems like the other side will cover.

Because I have to choose, I’m taking the Packers. The Lions have been playing great lately, but regression to the mean is bound to happen at some point. Also, this spread was Detroit +6 a week ago, so if you like the home dog, you’re getting awful value. The Packers, meanwhile, weren’t as bad as they looked on Thanksgiving. Did you know that they outgained the Bears by 75 net yards and averaged 0.4 more yards per play? I find that interesting, and I also like the revenge angle here.

The Packers don’t have to win by an insane amount to cover this game, so they seem like the right side to me, though I am concerned about their shaky offensive line.

I’ll be posting NFL Picks on Tuesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS; PICK CHANGE: I’m going to change my pick for a couple of reasons. First, there was an obscene amount of sharp money placed on the Lions today. That would explain why this spread has fallen off +3 in most places. And second, the Packers are missing several key players, including Bryan Bulaga, T.J. Lang and Damarious Randall. Not having them around is huge. I’m also hearing that Aaron Rodgers is legitimately hurt, though I’m not sure how valid that is.

I’m going to place a unit on the Lions. They’re available at +3 -115 on Bovada, so I’ll put that in. If you still like the Packers, you can get -2 on 5Dimes.

The Psychology. Edge: Packers.

A revenge spot for the Packers, who need a victory here to stay alive in the NFC North race. I don’t expect the Lions to roll over, but they could be full of themselves following such a huge blowout on national TV.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

Lots of action on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 77% (7,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Packers have won 16 of the last 20 meetings.

Packers are 38-19 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Aaron Rodgers is 64-40 ATS since 2009 (9-6 ATS as a favorite of 12+).

Aaron Rodgers is 26-21 ATS on the road as long as he’s not favored by 6.5 or more points.

Aaron Rodgers is 19-7 ATS after a loss (just 9-5 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Lions are 2-12 ATS after a double-digit win since 2011.

Opening Line: Packers -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Lions 24, Packers 20
Lions +3 -115 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$115
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 27, Lions 23

San Francisco 49ers (3-8) at Chicago Bears (5-6)
Line: Bears by 7. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Bears -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bears -6.5.
Sunday, Dec 6, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Bears.

WEEK 13 BETTING TRENDS – YARDAGE BATTLE: I found it odd that so many teams won in Week 12 despite losing the yardage battle. Teams that lost despite outgaining the opponent were the Packers (vs. Bears), 49ers (vs. Cardinals), Bills (at Chiefs), Buccaneers (at Colts), Steelers (vs. Seahawks) and Jaguars (vs. Chargers).

I found myself wondering how these teams have performed over the years. What about the teams that prevailed despite being outgained? Here are the numbers, dating back to 1989:

Win While Being Outgained: 979-981 (49.9%)
Loss While Outgaining Opponent: 965-917 (51.3%)

Teams that won while being outgained are completely 50-50, but teams that lost while outgaining their opponent have bounced back more often than not, covering at a 51.3-percent clip over a span of 16 years. Unfortunately that’s not good enough to bet blindly, so let’s dig deeper.

What about recently? Have things changed in the new CBA era?

Win While Being Outgained (since 2011): 196-189 (50.9%)
Loss While Outgaining Opponent (since 2011): 191-169 (53.1%)

That’s slightly better. It would make sense for losers to respond well after outgaining the opposition, since they probably were the better team. A rate of 53.1 percent isn’t outstanding or anything, but it’s a nice starting point. For the sake of brevity, I’ll refer to losers who outgained the opponents as LWOOs.

Here are some interesting things…

LWOOs are 538-465 against the spread as underdogs, covering at a 53.6-percent rate. They’re even better as touchdown underdogs, owning a 191-135 ATS record, which is a 58.6-percent clip. That’s pretty awesome hit rate over 16 years. It’s only been 30-25 ATS (54.5%) in the New CBA Era, which obviously isn’t as good, but it’s still been a winning proposition.

Also, road dog LWOOs have done better than home dogs; visitors are 374-303 ATS (55.2%) and about the same in the New CBA Era (68-56, 54.8%).

And finally, LWOOs playing their opposite – winners that were outgained – are 163-148 ATS (52.8%) since 1989, and even better in the New CBA Era, 39-27 ATS (59.1%). The 49ers and Steelers qualify for this in Week 13, by the way.

I realize that none of this is earth-shattering information, but I still thought it would be interesting to see how this dynamic has performed.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears won Thanksgiving night, but accumulated just 290 net yards of offense. I know they were playing in cold, rainy conditions, and Martellus Bennett was out, but they didn’t exactly look like an offensive juggernaut. Jay Cutler has been playing very well, but there are some concerns on this side of the ball, mainly on the offensive line.

The Bears haven’t seen good play from their tackles or center. The guards have been stellar, but the other three positions are problematic. With that in mind, the 49ers might be able to take advantage of this liability. They put immense pressure on Carson Palmer, and they might have even won the game had Pete Morelli, another horseman of the Week 12 Officiating Apocalypse, not called Quinton Dial for a ridiculous roughing-the-passer penalty. San Francisco should be able to generate heavy pressure on Cutler, forcing the Bears into some inconsistent possessions.

Having said that, I still expect the Bears to engineer several scoring drives. Cutler still has an impressive arsenal at his disposal, and it sounds like he’ll be getting Bennett back this week. Meanwhile, Matt Forte and Jeremy Langford could make sure that the 49ers won’t have a chance to pressure Cutler; San Francisco is just two weeks removed from surrendering 225 rushing yards to the Seahawks, so I expect the two talented backs to perform on a high level in this contest.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: A year ago, if you were to tell someone that Blaine Gabbert would be an upgrade over Colin Kaepernick, not only would you have been locked up in a mental hospital; the doctors there would’ve mistake you for a wild animal they captured and then cooked you up and served you to the other patients. That’s exactly what Gabbert is, however. Kaepernick, who has shown no interest in studying film or improving the mental part of his game, spent the entire first half of the season sailing helpless passes out of bounds. Gabbert, on the other hand, has shown tremendous strides, as the hard work he put in has finally paid off.

Gabbert doesn’t have the best weapons at his disposal, but Anquan Boldin is healthy again, while Vance McDonald finally appears to be coming on. They should be enough to help Gabbert move the chains somewhat consistently against a Chicago defense that isn’t great. The Bears have improved against the pass lately, however, thanks to Adrian Amos’ strong presence and Kyle Fuller’s recent upgrade in play.

Chicago is still very weak against the run, though. Eddie Lacy and James Starks trampled them on Thanksgiving, so the 49ers could have some success with Shaun Draughn, who has proven to be an adequate fill-in for Carlos Hyde.

RECAP: I think this spread is too high. The 49ers will be able to move the ball on the Bears, who might be flat following their victory on national TV over their hated arch rival. At the very least, Gabbert will be set up for a back-door cover, which almost certainly won’t be out of reach. Chicago has scored 20 points or fewer in three of its previous four games, and it has eclipsed 23 points just twice all year, which calls into question why the team is favored by a touchdown.

I’m going to fade the public and take the 49ers for two units. I don’t want to go crazy backing Gabbert, but the 49ers appear to be the right side.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Some professional money has come in on the 49ers. Pinnacle, the sharpest book on the Web, is even listing the Bears for -6.5. I’d hop on the 49ers at +7 right now. That line is still available at Bovada.

SUNDAY NOTES: More +6.5s are available. The sharps have bounced this spread off +7, which is saying a lot. The public continues to bet Chicago.

The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.

A definite flat spot for the Bears, who are coming off a big victory over the Packers.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

A decent amount of action on the host.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 68% (13,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Jay Cutler is 41-68 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Bears -7.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Bears 24, 49ers 23
49ers +7 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Survivor Pick (6-6) – NFL Survivor Pick Advice
49ers 26, Bears 20

Cincinnati Bengals (9-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-9)
Line: Bengals by 8. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Bengals -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bengals -6.5.
Sunday, Dec 6, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Bengals.

VEGAS UPDATE: The six top-bet teams each week were 29-35-2 against the spread heading into Week 12. How’d they do this past weekend? Take a look:

Panthers PK – Cover

Lions PK – Cover

Giants -2.5 – Loss

Patriots -3 – Loss

Raiders -1.5 – Cover

Vikings +2 – Cover

It was a winning week for the squares, as four of the six highly bet teams covered. Perhaps Morelli’s crooked officiating was the result of the house needing Denver to cover.

Here are the six top bets in Week 13, as of Tuesday afternoon (33-37-2 ATS this year):

Panthers -7

Cardinals -5.5

Bengals -??

Packers -3

Broncos -4

Chiefs -3

All are pretty predictable. There’s no line posted on the Bengals game yet, but I anticipate them being bet heavily.

Once again, follow @walterfootball for updates.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: I’m beginning with the Browns because they’re the reason no spread has been posted yet. Josh McCown is out, so Mike Pettine will have to decide whom to start between Johnny Manziel and Austin Davis. With that in mind, I have no idea why a line isn’t listed. Is there that much of a difference between Manziel and Austin? Both are scrubs with limited abilities. Manziel can scramble, but that’s about it.

The Bengals figure to dominate whichever quarterback gets the nod. Cleveland has surrendered the most sacks in the NFL this year (38), so Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap will put plenty of pressure on them. With limited weapons at their disposal, the Browns’ quarterbacks won’t be engineering consistent drives, and the lack of a running game won’t help matters. Duke Johnson is fine, but he’s not good enough to expose the Bengals, who have been better against the rush lately.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Browns didn’t exactly put on the best performance Monday night. In addition to their follies at the end of the game, they allowed Matt Schaub to whip the ball down the field the entire evening. Sure, Schaub had his trademark pick-six, which remarkably could’ve been intercepted by two Cleveland defenders, but Schaub did a good job of moving the chains otherwise, helping his team accumulated 336 net yards. If Schaub was able to post that figure, imagine what a better offense can do.

The Bengals obviously have a better scoring unit, as they actually have professional football players in their starting lineup. However, they’re not going to be at full strength. There’s talk that Tyler Eifert will miss this game, which is huge because he’s such a valuable intermediate target for Dalton, especially in the red zone. Dalton still has A.J. Green and Marvin Jones at his disposal, so he should still post solid numbers, but the offense won’t be as efficient as usual.

Eifert may not matter all that much if the Bengals establish Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard. Hill ran well last week, and that should continue versus a Cleveland ground defense ranked 30th in terms of YPC.

RECAP: There are three things going for you if you take the Browns +whatever. First, Eifert is likely out, so the Bengals may score threes instead of sevens. Second, the public will be pounding Cincinnati. And third, Cleveland has divisional revenge on its side.

Unfortunately, I would not recommend betting the Browns. If Manziel starts, you’ll be backing an idiot. If Austin starts, there could be a revolt in the locker room. I’d still take Cleveland for all of those aforementioned reasons, but I wouldn’t want a single cent on this game. SPREAD POSTED: This spread is actually higher than I thought it would be, but I still don’t want to bet the Browns. I don’t want to back Austin Davis against one of the best teams in the NFL. However, this line is too high, and Cleveland was competitive at Cincinnati several Thursday nights ago before the Bengals took full control at the end.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Browns, as they’ve bet this down from +10. It’s even 8.5 on Bovada. I can see why. The Bengals’ offense won’t be as effective without Tyler Eifert, while the Browns’ scoring unit has gotten a boost with stud guard Joel Bitonio returning to the lineup. I don’t want to bet on a team that could quit on its coach in the wake of the Manziel situation, however.

SUNDAY NOTES: This is one of the top sharp plays of the week. They pounded this down from +9.5 to +7.5, and Pinnacle is listing Bengals -7.5 +100. You can still get +8 at Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.

The Bengals have the Steelers next week.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Tons of money on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 79% (23,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Bengals have won 16 of the last 22 meetings (home team has won 6 of last 8).

Bengals are 27-39 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Browns are 19-14 ATS after allowing 30 or more points since 2005.

Browns are 9-19 ATS as favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Bengals -7.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Bengals 23, Browns 17
Browns +8 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bengals 37, Browns 3

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) at Tennessee Titans (2-9)
Line: Titans by 3. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Titans -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Titans -2.5.
Sunday, Dec 6, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: Lots of hate mail this week, as usual. Here’s a quick one from the comment boards:

I don’t need to tell you the irony of someone misspelling “moron” while calling someone a moran. Facepalm.

One more from the peanut gallery:

Premature hate mail is always my favorite. And I don’t get why people think I always get burned by the Patriots. I’ve read them pretty well this year.

Here’s actual real hate mail I received:

Whose “a legend?” Sorry, couldn’t resist. And I’m serious about lacking dexterity. I have major issues flipping coins.

This real hate mail is more disturbing:

What the hell? I didn’t give any indication that Ace Walters hits on his students. Why was he so defensive about it? I’m seriously worried.

I haven’t heard from Ace Walters since. Maybe he fled his home or spent time burning evidence. Meh, probably not, but his reaction to what I said (or really didn’t say) is pretty alarming.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: These teams played two weeks ago, and only a couple of things have changed. One is that Kendall Wright has returned to the lineup. Wright wasn’t a huge factor against the Raiders, but he’ll see a more expanded role in his second game back. Marcus Mariota didn’t have anyone to throw to beyond Delanie Walker in an attempt to expose Jacksonville’s flawed secondary, so he’ll now have a legitimate, experienced, deep-threat target at his disposal.

The rest of the scoring attack will function the same. Tennessee’s blocking isn’t very good, so Jacksonville’s strong pass rush will put heavy heat on Mariota, who will have to start running more frequently. Mariota will have to make up for a pathetic running game. Antonio Andrews stinks, and he has no chance going up against the league’s No. 2 ground defense in terms of YPC.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The other difference is that Allen Hurns may not play. The only strong aspect of the Jaguars’ scoring unit is that Blake Bortles can throw deep pretty effectively because of his two standout receivers and talented tight end. Hurns will probably have to sit out because of a concussion, so Bortles will only have Allen Robinson and Julius Thomas at his disposal.

Still, that’s pretty good. Robinson has been dominant all year, while Thomas is finally living up to expectations. The Titans can’t cover tight ends, so I expect Thomas to have another big game.

The Titans can counter the Jaguars’ aerial attack by applying heavy pressure on Bortles, which is certainly possible. Tennessee has a fantastic pass rush, which happens to be tied for the most sacks in the NFL. They’ll also be able to shut down the run; they rank 13th against ground attacks, and T.J. Yeldon isn’t good enough to overcome that.

RECAP: Mariota is 4-4 against the spread when he’s been able to play a full, healthy game, but he could easily be 6-2. The Titans have been victimized by horrible luck in recent weeks. They blew a fourth-quarter lead to the Jaguars because of a punt return and fluky fumble, and then Jeff Triplette made one of the worst calls of the year on one of their defensive backs when they had the game in hand against Oakland.

Things will go Tennessee’s way at some point, right? Perhaps it’ll be this week. I like the Titans here, as these teams now appear to be moving in different directions. Tennessee easily could’ve won its previous two games, while the Jaguars, without one of the “Allen Brothers” won’t be the same. The Titans also have divisional revenge in their favor.

That said, I’m picking Tennessee for just one unit. I’m not crazy about laying points with them, as more late-game misfortune could somehow arise.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No sharp action here. I’m still on the Titans for a unit. I like that Hurns is out for the Jaguars, while Tennessee’s offense should be better with Kendall Wright back for his second game.

SUNDAY NOTES: Sharp money moved this to Titans -3. Tennessee covering makes sense, as it appears to be the slightly better team.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
People are jumping off the Jacksonville bandwagon.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 51% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Underdog has covered 5 of the last 8 meetings, excluding a push.

Opening Line: Titans -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Titans 21, Jaguars 17
Titans -3 (1 Unit) — Push; $0
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Titans 42, Jaguars 39

Houston Texans (6-5) at Buffalo Bills (5-6)
Line: Bills by 3. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : No Line (Taylor).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bills -3.
Sunday, Dec 6, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Texans.

If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It’s free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. There’s no reason not to enter. Click the link to register!

BUFFALO OFFENSE: I’m beginning with the Bills because the Texans’ defense needs to be mentioned first. It’s amazing what they’ve done lately. In their past four games, they’ve limited their opponents to 6, 6, 17 and 6 points. It makes me wonder what happened five contests ago, when they lost to the Dolphins by the score of 44-26. That result makes zero sense right now, and of course, I had four units on Houston in that game. It’s been that kind of year.

The Texans have battled two strong offenses during their impressive stretch: Cincinnati and New Orleans. The Bills are a healthy tier or two below the Bengals, so Houston should be able to handle them. I don’t know how Buffalo will deal with J.J. Watt, who will undoubtedly terrorize Tyrod Taylor. I like what I’ve seen out of Taylor, however, and he did some impressive things against the Chiefs. Kansas City sports a terrific defense, so Taylor will be able to score some points. He’ll scramble for some first downs and connect with Sammy Watkins, who thoroughly embarrassed Sean Smith last week. There are some liabilities in Houston’s secondary for Taylor to exploit.

The Bills, however, won’t be able to establish LeSean McCoy on the ground. The Texans have surrendered 59.3 rushing yards per game since that blowout loss at Miami. McCoy will have to do his damage as a receiver out of the backfield.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: I like that Bill O’Brien admitted that he screwed up with Ryan Mallett. Everyone makes mistakes, but admitting when one is made and not repeating it is what’s most important. Moving back to Brian Hoyer (more so away from Mallett) has done wonders for the Texans, who have gone on a run with Hoyer and T.J. Yates under center.

Neither Hoyer nor Yates is very good, but unlike Mallett, they’re smart enough to target DeAndre Hopkins as often as possible. Hopkins didn’t perform up to par last week, but I like him to bounce back in this contest against a defense that just allowed Jeremy Maclin to go off with a noodle-armed Alex Smith throwing to him.

The Texans figure to run the ball effectively as well. Spencer Ware just trampled Buffalo, so Alfred Blue should be able to post similar numbers. This will make life easier for Hoyer, who will be battling a pass rush missing some key players, including Mario and Kyle Williams, as well as Alex Carrington, who had been replacing Williams.

RECAP: I’m 0-5 in my previous five Houston games. The first loss was at Miami, which completely threw me off because I’ve been fading the Texans this entire time since. I’ll back them on this occasion. Their defense should be able to limit the Bills’ offense. Buffalo’s stop unit, meanwhile, is trending downward. Thanks to injuries, the Chiefs were able to generate 7.1 yards per play against them last week. That’s a pretty staggering figure to allow to an offense quarterbacked by Alex Smith.

I don’t really have a feel for this game, and I think the line is pretty much where it should be, so no units for me.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps pounded the Bills on Saturday. Despite action on Houston, the money moved in Buffalo’s favor, as it appears as though the pros believe that Houston is a bit of a fraud. The Bills, meanwhile, are more desperate for a win. Because I was 50-50 on this game, I think I’ll switch my selection tothe Bills.

SUNDAY NOTES: Brandon Brooks is a surprise scratch. Most don’t know who he is, but he’s Houston’s second-best pass protector. He’s in the hospital, so his teammates could be worrying about him.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Slight lean on the visitor.

Percentage of money on Houston: 68% (10,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

True home teams are 23-15 ATS in the last 38 Bills games.

Bills are 16-28 ATS in their last 44 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Bills -3.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Bills 17, Texans 13
Bills -3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bills 30, Texans 21

Baltimore Ravens (4-7) at Miami Dolphins (4-7)
Line: Dolphins by 4. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Dolphins by 6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Dolphins -2.
Sunday, Dec 6, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I write up these notes the weekend prior to the preceding games, so I didn’t get to touch on Johnny Manziel in this space last week. And no, Matt Millen, I didn’t just say “I didn’t get to touch Johnny Manziel.” Get your kielbasa-filled head out of the gutter.

I thought it was so predictable that Manziel both partied and covered it up from his coaching staff. It was almost as predictable as his trip to rehab being a PR stunt. I wrote it at the time. These were my exact words from back in April:

Does anyone else think that Manziel’s trip to rehab is a PR stunt? His rookie year was so bad that his publicist almost had to recommend rehab to repair his image.

It was completely ridiculous that people thought Manziel was a changed man. Even Cris Carter, who knows a thing or two about rehabilitation, said the following: “Johnny Manziel is a better person now.”

Umm… no. In the span of a month, he has allegedly hit a woman, gotten drunk several times and lied to his coaches about his partying habits. Manziel is a moron who would rather roll $20s in bathrooms with complete losers than be a real football player. He said so himself – prior to his rookie campaign, Manziel said that it was unfair to judge him for partying because he was a “normal 21-yar-old kid.”

That was all I needed to hear. He just didn’t get it. Normal 21-year-old kids – technically, people stop being “kids” when they hit 18 – aren’t quarterbacks of an NFL franchise. Normal 21-year-old kids aren’t the faces of organizations worth at least $500 million. If Manziel wants to keep partying, he should just stop trying to be a football player because he’s embarrassing himself. He should quit, although then, he’ll have to resort to rolling $1s instead of $20s, and once that happens, all of those “cool” people he likes to hang out with will suddenly be partying with someone else.

2. Speaking of terrible quarterbacks, renowned racist Stephen A. Smith went on one of his rants recently, blaming the ineptitude of Robert Griffin and Colin Kaepernick on the media:

“WAS IT THOSE AFICIONADOS WHO SAID THEY WERE GREAT DRAFT PROSPECTS AND RAISED EXPECTATIONS!?!?!?”

For those of you who have been reading this for a while, you’re well aware of how dumb and horrible Smith is. He apparently thinks Griffin and Kaepernick have failed because there were high expectations placed on them by members of the media, which is perhaps one of the stupidest things I’ve ever heard. Leave it to Smith to have two of his favorite quarterbacks not take any responsibility for their failures. Smith makes it sound like no quarterback who has had high expectations has ever succeeded, which is just absurd. Smith won’t want to hear this, but the reason that Griffin and Kaepernick have failed is because both have a terrible work ethic, and neither has taken well to coaching as a result. But no… it must be the high expectations. In fact, that’s why my picks have sucked. High expectations by those damn aficionados!

3. Staying on the subject of Sunday NFL Countdown, I hate this new segment ESPN does where Wendi Nix asks people to send in pictures or videos of something. It was cute the first time, but it’s overly annoying – especially when Nix sees a picture of a baby doing something and always says, “Let’s just call him (or her) the winner!”

Ugh, so aggravating. And I like Nix, too. She’s pretty knowledgeable, and super hot, to boot. But I just hate it when people, especially women, are overly obsessed with babies doing anything. I don’t find it cute at all. Babies, as far as I’m concerned, look like ugly aliens for the most part, and nothing they do impresses me. I’ll change my mind when I hear an 18-month-old recite Pi to the 15th decimal, but until then, I don’t want anymore babies winning anything!

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins fired Bill Lazor, and while that was a good move, I don’t know how much it’ll help in the near future. The Dolphins have plenty of issues on this side of the ball.

One of those problems is Ryan Tannehill. The fourth-year signal-caller has absolutely no idea how to read the blitz, and the Dolphins, as a consequence, won’t let him make audibles at the line of scrimmage. It’s an awful situation, especially against teams that blitz frequently. The Jets absolutely wrecked Tannehill, and the Ravens will do the same. Baltimore doesn’t have the greatest pass rush, but Miami’s offensive line sucks. Ja’Wuan James has been missed, while stud center Mike Pouncey could miss this game with a foot sprain.

The Dolphins haven’t been able to run the ball effectively ever since losing James, and don’t expect that to change in this matchup. The Ravens may have an inept secondary, but they still happen to own a top-five rush defense.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens moved the chains surprisingly well at Cleveland considering that they have a backfield comprised of Matt Schaub and Buck Allen. Schaub, of course, fired his trademark back-breaking pick-six, which laughably could’ve been intercepted by two Browns defenders. Schaub, however, was pretty solid otherwise, which I’ll admit stumped me.

The Ravens could have several successful offensive drives in this game. As with the Dolphins’ offense, their defense hasn’t been the same since incurring a major injury. Cameron Wake went down in the third quarter of the New England contest, and as a consequence, Miami has surrendered 30 points per game during the past five weeks. Only four teams allowed a worse YPA than the Dolphins did in November.

Miami can’t stop the run either. The team has given up nearly 150 rushing yards per contest over the past four weeks. Allen isn’t a known name, but he handled himself well Monday night and should continue to be effective.

RECAP: I don’t understand why the Dolphins are favored by more than a field goal. They have absolutely no homefield advantage, so I don’t think they should be getting the full three anyway. Miami axed its offensive coordinator and is in complete disarray. The fire PC Head Coach lit under his team back in October has gone out. The Ravens, meanwhile, are playing with great enthusiasm. They’re not quitting.

I think Baltimore covers and wins this game, but I don’t want to go crazy with it. Backing Schub for a huge play isn’t the smartest move, but two units seems fine.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The pro money is on the Ravens, which isn’t a surprise. The Dolphins suck and shouldn’t be favored by more than a field goal. You can still get +4 at Bovada, albeit for -115.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps continue to bet the Ravens. The public has slowed its roll.

The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.
The Ravens are coming off an emotional, last-second victory, but that’s apparently a good thing.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 656% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Underdog is 63-35 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 98 games.

John Harbaugh is 3-7 ATS following Monday Night Football.

Dolphins are 7-18 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more since 2008.

Dolphins are 10-29 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Dolphins -4.5.

Opening Total: Dolphins -3.5.

Weather: 43.5.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Ravens 22, Dolphins 20
Ravens +4 -115 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Dolphins 15, Ravens 13

Seattle Seahawks (6-5) at Minnesota Vikings (8-3)
Line: Seahawks by 2.5. Total: 42.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Seahawks -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Vikings -3.
Sunday, Dec 6, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Vikings.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. Congratulations to Clemson, for maintaining its No. 1 ranking for another week. The Tigers barely survived South Carolina, but did outgain the Gamecocks by about 200 yards, so I don’t know exactly how to read into that.

What head coach Dabo Swinney said after the game was more interesting, however. When the sideline reporter asked Swinney what the key to victory was, he answered, “We had a bunch of guys that believed.”

Oh, OK. I see. So, if I gather up 70 men in the 18-22 age range, and all of them genuinely believe that they can be the top team in the country, I can coach the top college football team in the country as well? Because all it takes is belief, apparently.

2. Congratulations to Alabama, for maintaining its No. 2 rankings for another week. Not only did the Tide win, they covered at the very end on an insignificant run, prompting CBS color commentator Gary Danielson to say, “That was important for those Alabama fans, if you know what I mean!”

OK, two things: First, why don’t announcers ever mention the other side of the coin? Sure, it was great for Alabama backers, but what about those poor souls who wagered on Auburn? Are they not human? Why do their feelings matter less?

Second, that touchdown was Derrick Henry’s 46th carry of the afternoon. It actually surprised me that Saban threatened to ruin Henry’s professional career with such an enormous workload. Saban is such an upstanding guy who always cares more for his players than his career. He would never put himself before one of his players. Never. Because Saban is an incredible, selfless human being.

OK, sorry, I can’t handle this level of sarcasm for that long. Yes, Saban is an a**hole. NFL teams have told us that they hate how he runs his players into the ground, and this was another example. It’s ridiculous that he gave Henry 46 carries. In fact, it’s completely irresponsible. We saw what happened when Herm Edwards gave Larry Johnson an absurd workload in Kansas City, and this is on the same level. Saban would be ashamed of himself for doing this if he actually had a soul.

3. ESPN’s bottom-line ticker got me again. Last week, I complained that this confused me because I thought it was a college football score:

This week, I turned on the TV to see “Louisville 31, Kentucky 24.” My first thought: Holy crap, the Kentucky Wildcats and Louisville Cardinals are playing, and Kentucky’s losing? John Calipari, the douche, is going to be so sad!”

And then my dreams were crushed when I realized it was college football. Alas, a meaningless game, though Kentucky actually missed out on a bowl by losing. Poor Kentucky. Its fans won’t be able to watch the Wildcats battle some fifth-place team from the Seaweed Conference in the Wizards of the Coast Magic Bowl.

I’ll repeat what I wrote last week: College basketball shouldn’t be on right now. It shouldn’t be on anyone’s radar, and generally isn’t because football is too prominent right now. The NCAA should begin college football once the conference championships are over for football; that way, the first big Saturday for college football would commence right after the gridiron action is over.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks certainly had an offensive explosion last week when they lit up the Steelers. Russell Wilson was excellent, continuing his hot streak, while Thomas Rawls was close to reaching the century mark.

Unfortunately for the Seahawks, they could cool off in this game for a couple of reasons. One is that Jimmy Graham is out for the year. Wilson and Graham hadn’t enjoyed the best chemistry for most of the season, but they were finally able to develop a great rapport recently. Wilson obviously won’t be as effective without Graham, whose absence will allow opposing defenses to focus on Wilson’s other weapons, as well as Wilson himself.

Another reason why Seattle could slow down is because it’ll be battling a much tougher defense this week. The Vikings have a terrific pass rush that will put heavy pressure on Wilson. Meanwhile, Rawls won’t be as effective as Tevin Coleman was last week. Harrison Smith missed the Atlanta contest, but because he was expected to play going into last Sunday (according to Mike Zimmer), he should be able to suit up in this game. Smith will shore up any deficiencies in run support.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Seahawks used to be a defensive powerhouse, but that’s no longer the case. Ben Roethlisberger torched them mercilessly, and even Blaine Gabbert put together several good drives the week before. Richard Sherman is having a down year, and I thought Jeremy Lane was going to provide some help, but he was atrocious in his return.

Teddy Bridgewater doesn’t post the greatest stats, but he seems to complete key passes when he needs to. I think he’ll be fine in this matchup. He’ll be able to hook up with Kyle Rudolph consistently, as the Seahawks haven’t defended tight ends all that well this year.

Adrian Peterson, meanwhile, has a very difficult matchup on paper. The Seahawks are eighth against the rush, and they just limited the Steelers to 40 yards on the ground. However, the Falcons actually had a better-ranked ground defense heading into Week 12, and Peterson trampled that unit. Peterson is matchup-proof, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he hit the century mark in his contest.

RECAP: Every talking head on TV is saying that the Seahawks are beginning to peak at the right time. This is a perfect example of recency bias. People only remember what happened recently. Everyone saw Seattle post 39 points on the Steelers, and they were highly impressed by it. However, not only did the Seahawks lose Graham; but they were actually outgained by more than 100 yards in that contest! They lost the yardage battle, 538-436. Before the Pittsburgh game, they beat the 49ers by only 16, and they lost to the Cardinals at home the week prior.

The Seahawks now will be traveling for the first time since Week 8, when they barely beat the Cowboys, 13-12. This is a rough spot for them, and they’re not as good as everyone is making them out to be. The Vikings, on the other hand, have the better defense and running game. It can be argued that they’re the better team overall, and yet they’re not even laying a point at home, where they’re 9-3 against the spread under Bridgewater. That seems ridiculous to me.

I love the Vikings here, and I briefly considered them to be a Pick of the Month. I decided against it for two reasons. First, Minnesota plays Arizona in four days, so some attention could be there. Second, Bridgewater has yet to win a statement game, so I need to see that from him first. He had a chance to do so two weeks ago, but fell flat on his face against the Packers.

With that in mind, I’ll cut the eight units in half to four. The Vikings should be laying a field goal against a suddenly overrated Seattle team, so I’ll gladly take the value with the superior squad.

WEDNESDAY UPDATE: I posted a page called NFL Picks with Chronobiology concerning this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps pounded the Seahawks on Saturday in the wake of the Linval Joseph news. That’ll prompt me to drop this wager considerably. I’m not blindly following the professional money here, but Joseph’s absence will be HUGE. He’s one of the top defensive linemen in the NFL, and without him, Minnesota’s defense won’t be nearly as effective. I’ll need +3 to consider a wager on the Vikings now.

SUNDAY NOTES: Pro money continues to pour in on the Seahawks. Harrison Smith is back for the Vikings, which gives me more confidence for the Vikings than I had Saturday. I’ll place a unit back on Minnesota, but Joseph’s absence will loom large.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Vikings play on Thursday night next week, but they’re underdogs, so they should be OK.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
Slight lean on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 63% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

Seahawks are 26-37 ATS on the road since 2006 if they’re not coming off an away loss.

Russell Wilson is 10-3 ATS as an underdog. ???

Opening Line: Seahawks -1.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Vikings 19, Seahawks 17
Vikings +2.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 38, Vikings 7

Arizona Cardinals (9-2) at St. Louis Rams (4-7)
Line: Cardinals by 3.5. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Cardinals -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cardinals -4.5.
Sunday, Dec 6, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Five years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for the 2013 season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses. In 2014, Donald Sterling answered spammers.

This week, I have a new Spam Mail in which some person told me he was robbed on vacations in Manila. How could I possibly help!? Check out the link.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Jeff Fisher doth protest too much. Fisher was furious upon hearing questions about his team’s work ethic following the blowout loss to the Bengals. Those questions were legitimate, as many of the defenders showed very little interest in tackling or covering A.J. Green. It was a pathetic performance on so many levels, but that’s what happens when you hire a goon to be your defensive coordinator.

I’d say the Rams would try harder in this contest because of the divisional rivalry, but they’ve already beaten the Cardinals, so what’s the incentive? Arizona has the quarterback and dynamic receivers to absolutely torch a lethargic stop unit, but I have one concern, which is Carson Palmer’s protection. The 49ers swarmed Palmer’s backfield constantly last Sunday, which restricted Arizona to 19 points. The Rams have the horses up front to rattle Palmer again, but only if Robert Quinn plays. Quinn has been out for a while, but it sounds like St. Louis might get him back this week. It appears as though Trumaine Johnson could return as well.

If the Rams have Quinn at their disposal, they’ll be able to handle the Cardinals’ rushing attack, which could be more potent this week. Chris Johnson had struggled mightily in the past four weeks, averaging less than three yards per carry. David Johnson figures to be an upgrade.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: The Rams may also see right tackle Rob Havenstein return to the lineup, which would be a great thing for Todd Gurley. The rookie runner hasn’t been as productive since losing Havenstein, who has surprised despite being considered a reach in the 2015 NFL Draft by many teams. If Havenstein will be on the field, Gurley will have a chance to break free, though running against Arizona’s sixth-ranked ground attack will be challenging.

Unfortunately for the Rams, they don’t have much else going for them on offense. Tavon Austin is capable of bursting for a big gain once per game, but that’s about it. The quarterback situation is an absolute mess. Nick Foles has lost all confidence, while Case Keenum might even be worse. Neither signal-caller has anyone dependable to throw to either. Arizona’s defense won’t allow St. Louis to have much.

RECAP: I honestly don’t know what do with this game. On one hand, I could see the Cardinals covering. They’re the much better team, and they’ll have revenge going for them. Plus, backing them means fading either Foles or Keenum, which is generally a good thing.

On the other hand, the Rams could be the right side. Arizona has not looked right since winning in Seattle. The team had a couple of mental funks in the Cincinnati victory and then was outgained by a wide margin in San Francisco. The 49ers averaged nearly two more yards per play! The Cardinals have issues blocking, and Quinn could return. Plus, there’s so much action coming in on Arizona, and despite that, the spread is dropping. Perhaps the sharps have recognized that the Cardinals play in just four days, so as a favorite here, they could be focused on that contest.

I feel like there are more reasons to take the Rams, so I’ll side with them for now. If Quinn and Havenstein are ruled out, I might change my pick to Arizona, so check back later.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Rams are one of the top sharp bets of the week. It helps that Rob Havenstein will be back in the lineup, but I’d be concerned about the Rams missing two of their top defensive players (Robert Quinn, Trumaine Johnson). This will be non-bet for me.

SUNDAY NOTES: This is another major sharp play. They’ve dropped this line to +3.5 in most places. There’s more money on Arizona than any other team this week.

The Psychology. Edge: Rams.

The Cardinals, as favorites prior to playing Thursday night, could be in a flat spot.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

No surprise where the action is going.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 84% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

History: Cardinals have won 13 of the last 18 meetings.

Bruce Arians is 28-15 ATS as head coach of the Cardinals.

Jeff Fisher is 10-7 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+. ???

Jeff Fisher is 49-36 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Opening Line: Cardinals -5.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Cardinals 17, Rams 16
Rams +3.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cardinals 27, Rams 3

Atlanta Falcons (6-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)
Line: Buccaneers by 1. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Falcons -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Dec 6, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Falcons.

Video of the Week: I invented St. Stalin’s Day – the Russian version of St. Patrick’s Day – in part, because I wanted to mock Joseph Stalin. Adolf Hitler was even worse than Stalin, so I was thrilled to see this video. It’s long, but it’s worth watching – it’s a sitcom parody where Hitler is the main character (thanks, Daniel S)!

NBC, FOX, ABC, CBS… get on this. Make this series happen!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: When a decent team gets into a funk and begins committing too many turnovers, it usually takes them two, three games tops to get out of their slump. When a bad team begins killing itself with mistakes, its poor play seems to last an entire season. The Falcons appear to be heading down that path. Despite outgaining so many of their opponents during their cold streak, they’ve lost all but one contest since beginning 5-0, and the sole victory was just a three-point triumph over the Zach Mettenberger-led Titans.

The Falcons’ downward spiral is mistifying. The mistakes won’t stop. Whether it’s a running back fumbling, Matt Ryan throwing a horrible interception in the end zone, or Julio Jones dropping a pass, Atlanta has found a way to repeatedly shoot itself in the foot since Week 6, without fail.

Having said that, the Falcons have a great matchup here. The Buccaneers’ sorry secondary couldn’t even contain Matt Hasselbeck last week. They have no one to deal with Jones. Devonta Freeman, meanwhile, will be back, and he accumulated 127 total yards the last time he battled the Buccaneers. Atlanta, at least on paper, should be able to score. We’ll see if that finally translates to real life.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers moved the chains well at Indianapolis in the first half, but they struggled after intermission. Jameis Winston was suddenly seeing more pressure. He took five sacks in total, and Indianapolis’ defense legitimately rattled him.

Can the Falcons do the same? Well, on one hand it doesn’t appear as though they’ll be able to. They’re tied for the fewest sacks in the NFL with 12. On the other hand, the Colts had mustered just 14 sacks prior to last week. Winston isn’t protected well, so perhaps Atlanta will be able to apply pressure on him.

What Atlanta happens to do well defensively is stop the run. This wasn’t evident against Adrian Peterson, but despite the numbers Peterson posted, the Falcons are still ninth against the rush in terms of YPC.

RECAP: The Falcons have struggled for a while now. They’ve been overvalued, and they consequently have failed to cover the spread since Week 4, which is amazing. However, the market has finally caught up to how poor they’ve been, and now they’re underdogs for the first time since Week 2.

I like Atlanta much better in this role. The pressure will be off of them, and the team could finally stop committing stupid errors. The Falcons unquestionably have more talent than the Buccaneers – they outgained Tampa back in Week 8, 496-290 – so I think they’ll win this game and stop their losing streak. The Buccaneers struggled in the second half of the Indianapolis game, and I think that could be a sign of things to come. They have an awful homefield advantage, so they’re likely to lose as hosts once again. This is a three-unit play for me.

WEDNESDAY UPDATE: I posted a page called NFL Picks with Chronobiology concerning this game.

UNIT CHANGE: It’s been reported that Gerald McCoy stands a good chance of missing this game, so I’m going to increase my Atlanta wager to four units. The Buccaneers are currently a bit overrated – what have they done exactly besides thrash the Eagles, who quit on Chip Kelly? – and they won’t be nearly as good without McCoy, who is one of the top defensive linemen in the NFL; he’s Tampa’s top pass-rusher by far. I may even go to five units, but four for now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I stand by the unit change I made Friday night. The overrated Buccaneers are really going to miss McCoy.

SUNDAY NOTES: The Falcons are the sharp side this week. Devin Hester’s return could definitely help.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

The money is starting to come in on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 65% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

History: Falcons have won 10 the last 14 meetings.

Road Team is 63-37 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Falcons are 20-9 ATS following a loss of 6+ in the previous 29 instances.

Buccaneers are 15-35 ATS at home in the previous 49 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -2.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Falcons 27, Buccaneers 24
Falcons +1 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Over 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Buccaneers 23, Falcons 19

New York Jets (6-5) vs. New York Giants (5-6)
Line: Jets by 2.5. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Giants -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Jets -2.5.
Sunday, Dec 6, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Jets.

Here’s something that will be added to my Random NFL Notes. My friend and former neighbor Drew sent me an e-mail back in the summer. It had to do with this Giants-Jets game, so I wanted to save it for this matchup. Drew thinks this game offers an unfair advantage for the Giants. Here’s the e-mail:

Dear Walter,

I come to you today as a former neighbor, a friend, and as a Philadelphian. I know your father is an Eagles Fan and was probably crushed when they traded Foles, but I’m sure he remains loyal to his home team!

As you know I am a die hard Eagles fan, and there is great injustice happening this year. The NY Giants have an away game at Giant Stadium against the NY Jets. If you read my e-mail below, I sent a detailed note to Commissioner Goodell explaining this injustice and I offer a reasonable solution. I sent this on Monday, May 4 without a response.

I am coming to you as a man who built his own website from the ground up and now has millions and millions of readers! I am calling all Eagles, Cowboys, and Redskins Fans to come together & petition the NFL that this game every 4 years should be played in London or a Neutral Site. (Read my complete e-mail below).

The fans of these 3 teams need to come together for this unfair advantage that the Giants are receiving. “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.”

Regards,
Drew

Here’s the e-mail Drew sent to Roger Goodell, who did not reply back, probably because he was too busy staring at himself in the mirror:

Dear Commissioner Goodell,

As a life long Philadelphia Eagles fan, and fan of the NFL product, I have an issue with the New York Giants playing an away game against the New York Jets at MetLife (Giants) Stadium. Now you can argue that this is an away game for the Giants as the Jets are the home team and issue the tickets. I work with some Jets fans are their comments were “It will never be our stadium.” I feel this gives the Giants an extra home game being played at their stadium and an unfair advantage over their NFC East counterparts, which could prove crucial in determining a playoff bid in the competitive NFC East.

Having spent over 20 years in corporate america, I have learned that if you take issue with something, then provide a solution.

I suggest that when this game comes up every fourth year, that this game is played in London or another neutral site. So four years from now the Giants would be the home team and receive the gate and four years after that the Jets are the home team and receive the gate. You as commissioner tell the Mara-Tisch Family and the Johnson Family this is how it will be going forward in the interest of fairness and it is non-negotiable. This will also come into play should two teams from different conferences move to Los Angeles. You will know far in advance and have games for London already set.

Thank you for your time and consideration!

Sincerely,
Drew

What does everyne think? Is Drew right? Is this a competitive advantage for the Giants? Does the NFL need to change how it handles the Giants-Jets games every four years? Let me know in the comments below, or just tweet at Goodell (@nflcommish) to annoy him.

NY GIANTS OFFENSE: There’s a glaring mismatch in this game, and it happens to be in the trenches on this side of the football. The Jets’ dominant defensive line has a huge advantage in this contest. The Giants’ offensive front is completely banged up. Justin Pugh and Weston Richburg were out last week, and the team managed to lose Geoff Schwartz to a season-ending injury. That’s the entire interior of the offensive line, and to make matters worse, WF.com reader Ereck Flowers was limping around as well against the Redskins. Tom Coughlin said that he hopes to have either Pugh or Richburg back, but hasn’t seen any evidence that they’ll be able to return.

Eli Manning struggled because of poor pass protection last week, and the same thing is bound to happen in this contest. The immense pressure Manning will see will undoubtedly force him into more interceptions, especially if Darrelle Revis is cleared from concussion protocol.

That said, Manning will still hook up on a few deep throws to Odell Beckham Jr., thanks to Beckham’s sheer talent. Unfortunately for the Giants, that’s all they’ll be able to do, given that the running game won’t help in any way.

NY JETS OFFENSE: The Jets struggled to score for a stretch, thanks in part to Ryan Fitzpatrick’s thumb injury. Fitzpatrick finally seemed to snap out of his slump against the Dolphins, however. Sure, it was an easy matchup, but it’s not like the Giants will provide a greater challenge. Thanks to a flawed secondary and an inconsistent pass rush, the Giants can’t stop aerial attacks at all.

The Giants are better against the run, but only by default. They’re 17th against ground attacks, and they surrendered 104 rushing yards to the Washington backs last week. Johnathan Hankins has definitely been missed in that regard, and the Giants don’t really have anyone who can replicate what he did in the interior.

RECAP: I have no idea how the Giants are going to pass protect for Manning or stop the Jets’ aerial attack. The Giants were once the better team, but they’ve sustained too many injuries and are now a shell of their former selves. The Jets are now superior, and thanks to a couple of great matchup edges, they should be able to prevail.

I’m currently going to list the Jets as a three-unit selection. However, if either Pugh or Richburg returns to the lineup, I’ll drop the unit count accordingly.

FINAL THOUGHTS: All the sharp money is on the Jets. I said I’d take units off this game if the Giants got a lineman back, and it’s looking like Pugh will play. However, the Giants will be missing Brandon Meriweather, who has been decent in coverage this year. I’m sticking with the Jets for three units.

SUNDAY NOTES: This is another public versus sharp side. Average bettors are loving the Giants, while the professionals have pounded the Jets.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

The public likes the Giants.

Percentage of money on NY Giants: 73% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Eli Manning is 36-25 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

Opening Line: Jets -1.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Jets 23, Giants 17
Jets -2.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jets 23, Giants 20

Week 13 NFL Picks – Late Games
Denver at San Diego, Kansas City at Oakland, Philadelphia at New England, Indianapolis at Pittsburgh, Dallas at Washington

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 13 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 23

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)