NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2015

NFL Picks (Preseason 2015): 7-10-1 (-$1,420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2015): 10-6 (+$940)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2015): 9-7 (-$895)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2015): 7-9 (-$870)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2015): 6-8-1 (-$360)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2015): 6-6-2 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2015): 5-8-1 (-$690)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2015): 4-9-1 (-$860)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2015): 5-8-1 (+$520)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2015): 8-5 (+$280)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2015): 6-8 (-$610)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2015): 5-6-3 (-$2,010)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2015): 6-10 (-$1,050)

NFL Picks (2015): 84-100-6 (-$6,970)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 7, 5:55 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 13 NFL Picks – Early Games

Denver Broncos (9-2) at San Diego Chargers (3-8)
Line: Broncos by 5.5. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Broncos -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -8.
Sunday, Dec 6, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Broncos.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

I’ve been citing that Tom Brady has lost his “clutch” ability over the past few years, but I guess I can’t do that any longer because he just won his fourth Super Bowl. Or, can I…? Brady, after all, reached the “Big Game” with the help of his deflated footballs.

Brady was stuck on three Super Bowls for a long time before he resorted to cheating. So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona. Including this one…

To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!

DENVER OFFENSE: Peyton Manning had to be pretty envious Sunday night. Not only of Brock Osweiler’s arm strength; but that Denver’s rushing attack suddenly working. The Broncos haven’t been able to run the ball all year, but they exploded for 175 rushing yards in the victory over the Patriots.

Was that just a fluke that occurred because New England lost Dont’a Hightower, or can Denver sustain this going forward? Perhaps the latter, but we won’t know for sure after this game because the Chargers are so horrible against the run. They rank dead last in terms of stopping it, so I expect C.J. Anderson to have another huge performance.

As for Osweiler, I like his chances as well. The Chargers are miserable all around and can’t really stop anything. Demaryius Thomas is coming off the worst game of his career, so I expect him to bounce back with a strong effort.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Rivers has experienced an interesting season thus far. He has been able to light up some teams. For instance, he threw for 500 yards on the Packers, and he happened to torch the Jaguars last week. However, in other contests, he has appeared to be completely inept. See the Kansas City loss two weeks ago.

I think this game will be more like the Chiefs contest. The Broncos, like Kansas City, have a dominant defense. Their pass rush is terrific, which will spell trouble for Rivers and his battered offensive line. And unlike the Jaguars, Denver has the talent in the secondary to smother Rivers’ lacking receiving corps.

The Chargers won’t be doing any running either. The Broncos have the No. 1 rush defense in the NFL, so Melvin Richardson will appear to be more incompetent than usual.

RECAP: I’m trying not to be on so many square sides, but this is one of the exceptions. The Broncos seem like the right play here. They’re a much better team with Osweiler at the helm, and I think an emotional, overtime victory could propel them forward and give them enough momentum to handle San Diego. The Chargers, meanwhile, have been miserable as hosts this year. They have no homefield advantage, as there will be countless Denver fans in the stands. Thus, I wouldn’t give them any points for playing here, making my projected line Broncos -8, which is what it would be on a neutral field.

Two units for me on the Broncos. The Chargers simply don’t have the talent to match up here, and they won’t be able to summon any emotion from their crowd, since they don’t have any fans. My only concern is the amount of money coming in on the Broncos, but sometimes the square side is the right side.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both the public and sharps are on the Broncos, and Vegas stands to lose a lot of money on the Chargers if the host covers. San Diego will once again be missing most of its offensive line, and the team has absolutely no homefield advantage.

SUNDAY NOTES: I knew it! The supposed professional money coming in on San Diego was just phantom movement. The sharps pounded on the Broncos at -3.5 and -4. Betting the Chargers never made any sense, as they’re a dead team.

The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.
The Broncos are coming off an emotional win in overtime, but that has been a good thing this year.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

No surprise that everyone’s betting on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 71% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Broncos have won 7 of the last 8 meetings.

Teams are 9-17 ATS after beating the defending Super Bowl champion as an underdog.

Philip Rivers is 30-21 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (13-8 ATS as an underdog).

Opening Line: Broncos -4.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Broncos 27, Chargers 10
Broncos -5.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 17, Chargers 3

Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) at Oakland Raiders (5-6)
Line: Chiefs by 3. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Chiefs -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Raiders -1.5.
Sunday, Dec 6, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

I don’t know if you noticed, but I made a slight change to the home page to separate all of the categories of the site…

You may have seen a section called Open Rant, where you can create your own blogs. If they are good enough, I’ll post them on the home page or tweet them out.

Our 2016 NFL Mock Draft Builder is live! Create your own mock, which could be placed in the mock database. I’ll also tweet some of them out.

We also have a NFL Power Rankings Builder. Don’t like my power rankings? Create your own!

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Chiefs’ have been completely dominant defensively after beginning the season 1-5. All but one team they’ve faced since Week 5 hasn’t scored more than 18 points against them. However, there could be a chink in their armor. Actually, “chink” is a huge understatement, as the missing player is Justin Houston, who is expected to be out for a couple of weeks. Houston is arguably a top-five defender in the NFL, and Kansas City doesn’t have anyone close to him to fill in across from Tamba Hali.

The Chiefs, consequently, won’t be as dominant on this side of the ball. The Raiders pass protect pretty well for Derek Carr, so without having to worry about Houston, Carr should be able to put together some strong drives, much like Tyrod Taylor did last week. Remember, Taylor was able to hook up with Sammy Watkins pretty frequently in the first half, so perhaps Amari Cooper will be able to go off.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It’s been surprising how effective the Chiefs’ scoring unit has been despite losing Jamaal Charles. They move the chains effectively, as it seems as though it doesn’t matter who starts in the backfield. No one had ever heard of Spencer Ware prior to a couple of weeks ago – seriously, his parents probably didn’t even know who he was – but like Charles and Charcandrick West, he has proven to be difficult to contain.

The difference is the Chiefs’ offensive line. There was literally no good reason to have guard Jeff Allen out of the lineup to begin the season (seriously, Andy, come on), but once the Chiefs slotted him in as a starter, they’ve taken off. The Raiders struggle to contain the run, so I expect Ware to have another big performance.

Alex Smith will capitalize on Ware’s solid running. He’ll be in plenty of short-yardage situations, so he can check the ball down to his heart’s desire. Actually, I’ll give Smith credit; he went deep quite often against the Bills. Perhaps he’ll do the same against the Raiders, who have a questionable secondary.

RECAP: I went against the Chiefs when they were -3 at the Chargers. This turned out to be a big mistake that ended up costing me eight units. I miscalculated how bad San Diego was, and it didn’t help that the Chargers have the worst home-field advantage in the NFL. The Raiders, meanwhile, aren’t great as hosts, but they’re OK. They’re 2-2 ATS as home underdogs this year, and they easily could be 3-1, given that they had a chance to beat the Broncos until an untimely pick-six.

With that in mind, I like the Raiders here for four units. This spread doesn’t make any sense to me. The Chiefs were just -5 at home against the Bills, yet would be -9 versus Oakland. Weh? Also, Kansas City won’t have Houston, which is a huge deal. It doesn’t appear as though the spread has adjusted for that loss at all. Both teams will score a good deal, and this contest could be won by either squad. With that in mind, getting +3 with the host while fading the public is very enticing.

WEDNESDAY UPDATE: I posted a page called NFL Picks with Chronobiology concerning this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Based on the sharp action, it wouldn’t surprise me if this spread drops off +3. If you like the Raiders, I’d pounce on the +3. If you want the Chiefs, you can afford to wait.

SUNDAY NOTES: Tons of pro money coming in on the Raiders on Saturday, but not so much on Sunday. Rodney Hudson’s doubtful status probably has something to do with it.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
All aboard the Chiefs’ bandwagon!

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 61% (29,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Road Team has won 12 of the last 17 meetings (Raiders 10 of the last 16 meetings).

Raiders are 11-24 ATS after a win since 2009.

Opening Line: Chiefs -3.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Raiders 26, Chiefs 23
Raiders +3 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Over 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 34, Raiders 20

Carolina Panthers (11-0) at New Orleans Saints (4-7)
Line: Panthers by 6. Total: 50.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Panthers -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -6.
Sunday, Dec 6, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Panthers.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 8! Episode 12 is posted. Greg Hardy abducts Emmitt and his friends and threatens to kill them.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Every quarterback who has battled the Saints has played like an All-Pro. Eli Manning torched them for six touchdowns, and then Marcus Mariota followed that up with four scores. Kirk Cousins and Brian Hoyer were great as well. The difference here is that Cam Newton is actually an All-Pro. He doesn’t need to battle the incompetent Saints to perform on an extremely high level, so the Saints probably can’t even fathom a way to deal with him.

The only way Newton doesn’t post monstrous numbers is if Jonathan Stewart hogs all of the yardage and touchdowns. Stewart, who has been hot, will trample the Saints, who have surrendered an average of 163.3 rushing yards over their previous three games. Only San Diego is worse when it comes to stopping the run, and it doesn’t appear as Rob Ryan’s absence has changed anything.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints won’t be stopping the Panthers, so their only hope is to engage them in a shootout. The problem, however, is that Carolina sports the best defense in the NFL.

Oh, and Drew Brees hasn’t really been himself either. There’s no question that Brees is declining. It’s been two seasons of regression now, and it was as evident as ever last week when he scored just six points on the Texans, who broke New Orleans’ impressive touchdown streak. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if a new scoreless streak begins now, as the Panthers have the dominant personnel up front to rattle Brees and force errant throws all afternoon.

Brees won’t be able to lean on Mark Ingram either. The Panthers’ rush defense is pretty ridiculous; no one has even mustered more than 50 rushing yards against them since Week 8.

RECAP: I’m not going to bet the Panthers this week. They’re coming off a big statement game on national TV. The Saints, who have divisional revenge, will be playing their “Super Bowl.” There’s a ridiculous amount of money coming in on Carolina, which could be the most-bet team this week.

So, am I taking the Saints? Not a chance. I could see New Orleans covering in fluky fashion, but the Panthers are the best team in the NFL. They have the league’s top defense, which is something that travels well. New Orleans appears to be done, and even in a fantastic spot, I could see the team falling flat on its face as Sean Payton spends all of halftime typing up his resume.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Lots of sharp money on the Saints, but the pros have lost on the Panthers all year. No question that this line is inflated, but Sean Payton basically has one foot out the door and may not be giving 100 percent in terms of his game plan.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharp money has allowed a Panthers -6 line to surface, which seems crazy. The pros have lost money on Carolina all year, so I don’t see why this would be any different.

The Psychology. Edge: Saints.

The Panthers had a statement victory on national TV. A week from now, they battle Atlanta. They could be flat in this contest.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

A ridiculous amount of action is coming in on the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 75% (38,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Panthers have won 5 of the last 7 meetings.

Drew Brees is 38-28 ATS as an underdog.

Drew Brees is 32-23 ATS after a loss with the Saints (10-5 ATS as an underdog).

Drew Brees is 6-1 ATS as a home underdog with the Saints.

Opening Line: Panthers -7.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Panthers 27, Saints 6
Panthers -6 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 50 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Panthers 41, Saints 38

Philadelphia Eagles (4-7) at New England Patriots (10-1)
Line: Patriots by 9. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Patriots -9.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -10.
Sunday, Dec 6, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Patriots.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Another Wedding.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: It seems like I begin every Patriots write-up by writing, “Tom Brady’s supporting cast keeps dropping like flies.” That once again proved to be the case, as Rob Gronkowski sustained a knee injury against the Broncos. Fortunately for New England, Gronkowski will only miss a couple of games at the most, so he’ll definitely be back for the playoff push. Also, Danny Amendola will return for this contest, so that’s great news.

The Eagles play stupid football on both sides of the ball. For example, overwhelmed coordinator Billy Davis thinks putting a rookie corner with no experience on Calvin Johnson with no safety help is a good idea. It won’t be difficult for Brady, Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels to out-scheme Davis. The offensive line will definitely be a concern – I could see the Eagles pressuring Brady effectively – but Brady should be able to dissect Philadelphia quite easily.

LeGarrette Blount might be able to get in on the action as well. I know Bill Simmons pronounced him dead, but Blount has a great matchup here, as the Eagles had the worst run defense in the NFL (in terms of YPC) in the month of November.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles had no chance with Mark Sanchez, but based on all reports, Sam Bradford will return to the lineup. Bradford isn’t great either, but he’s markedly better than Sanchez. The problem for Bradford – well, one of the problems – is that he doesn’t have a great supporting cast. Chip Kelly, in his infinite wisdom, dealt away all of the talented skill players. It turns out that throwing to Miles Austin and Riley Cooper is not a good proposition.

Having said that, I like the Eagles’ matchup against the Patriots on this side of the ball. With Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower out, New England is extremely weak against the run, especially on sweeps to the outside. All the Eagles do is run outside with DeMarco Murray. It’s usually a stupid thing to do, given that Murray is naturally a north-south runner, but it really stands a great chance of working in this contest versus New England’s depleted defense.

RECAP: Give me a unit on the Eagles. That may sound crazy, but their horrible ineptitude began when Sanchez took over for Bradford. Remember, they were up 16-3 on the Dolphins a few weeks ago, but lost that game when Sanchez was thrust into the lineup. Before that, Philadelphia won at Dallas and destroyed the Giants on a Monday night. The Eagles aren’t as bad as everyone makes them out to be as long as Bradford is playing. They were thoroughly humiliated on Thanksgiving, so I think this is a nice rebound spot for them.

Meanwhile, the Patriots have a skeleton-crew roster, so asking them to win by double digits is unreasonable. The Eagles should be able to cover this high spread, though I don’t want to bet them heavily for obvious reasons.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The pros love the Eagles this week, while the public is pounding the host. The Eagles feel like the right side, as they’ll have Bradford back to battle such a banged-up team.

SUNDAY NOTES: Excluding the Cardinals, the Patriots are receiving the most public money this week. Once again, the sharps are betting the Eagles.

The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.

The Patriots are home favorites following a loss as a road favorite in overtime, which generally is a losing proposition. The Eagles have been embarrassed in two consecutive games, so I expect more energy from them in this game.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

Who’s not going to bet the Patriots on such a short number?

Percentage of money on New England: 79% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Eagles are 23-14 ATS as road underdogs since 2005.

Tom Brady is 184-60 as a starter (138-101 ATS).

Tom Brady is 33-14 ATS off a loss (4-8 ATS as -7 or more).

Tom Brady is 25-10 ATS off a loss since 2003 (4-7 ATS as -7 or more).

Tom Brady is 25-30 ATS as a home favorite of -9 or more (14-23 ATS since November 2007).

Opening Line: Patriots -11.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Patriots 27, Eagles 24
Eagles +9 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 49 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 35, Patriots 28

Indianapolis Colts (6-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)
Line: Steelers by 9. Total: 50.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Steelers -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -5.
Sunday, Dec 6, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: Steelers.

As you may have noticed, I’m posting these picks on Tuesday. My new schedule will be as follows:

Tuesday Afternoon:
NFL Picks
Fantasy Football Weekly Rankings

Tuesday Evening:
Fantasy Football: Start Em, Sit Em

Wednesday Afternoon:
Live 2016 NFL Mock Draft

Wednesday Evening:
FanDuel Picks
College Football Picks

Everything else will remain the same. As always, check back during the week or follow me @walterfootball.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Going into the season, this looked like an enticing matchup between Ben Roethlisberger versus Andrew Luck. The two took part in a shootout a year ago, and a rematch would’ve been awesome. Unfortunately, this could be Landry Jones against Matt Hasselbeck. Roethlisberger, of course, is in concussion protocol because he put himself there for some reason. It’s been reported that Roethlisberger might not even have a concussion, so I suppose there’s a good chance he’ll play.

If that’s the case, Roethlisberger should be able to torch the Colts. Jameis Winston looked good in the first half at Indianapolis, though he wilted following intermission once the Colts began placing more pressure on him. Roethlisberger will be able to handle that, as he has way too many weapons at his disposal for the Colts to handle. If it’s Jones, however, I expect Indianapolis to be able to rattle him.

The Colts are sub par versus the run, so DeAngelo Williams will aid whichever quarterback makes the start. Williams will face eight men in the box if Jones gets the nod, so he obviously won’t be as great of an option without Roethlisberger.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: While it’s unknown which quarterback will play for the Steelers, we know that Hasselbeck will start once again for the injured Luck. Hasselbeck, despite being 40 years old, has been a revelation this season, owning a better completion percentage and touchdown-to-interception ratio than Luck, which is inexplicable.

With that in mind, I like Hasselbeck’s chances to once again have a strong performance. We just saw what Russell Wilson did with a complement of mediocre receivers to Pittsburgh’s secondary. Hasselbeck has his own solid arsenal, which includes T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief. He’ll move the chains effectively against the Steelers.

Unlike Wilson, however, Hasselbeck won’t have a strong rushing attack to support him, and that could be the difference. Whereas Thomas Rawls has been solid, Frank Gore has completely worn down. And with Ahmad Bradshaw out for the year, the Colts don’t have any strong alternative options.

RECAP: There’s no line on this game, so no definitive pick yet. I’m probably going to take the Colts to cover and Steelers to win, but I’m not sure yet. Check back later or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

LINE POSTED: The Steelers have opened at -7. I’ll have a definitive pick posted sometime on Friday.

PICK POSTED: I don’t really see a strong edge in this game. I was hoping the public would pounce on one side so I could take the other – works like a charm in most Pittsburgh games because of the team’s owners – but the money is split, unfortunately. The Steelers are definitely the better team, but this number seems to be right on the money. Thus, until further notice, I’ll still be on the Colts, but for no units.

SUNDAY NOTES: I’m changing my pick to the Steelers. After listening to all the pre-game shows, I’ve gathered that all of the analysts think Matt Hasselbeck is better than Andrew Luck, and that the Steelers have the worst defense in the NFL. Meanwhile, sharp money continues to back Pittsburgh. I think it’s a good idea to go against public overreaction, so I’m willing to wager a unit on the host at -9.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m cursed, but this isn’t a top selection for me, so it could hit. I have the Steelers for a unit at -9, and I’d still support a similar wager on them at -9.5 or -10. Most books have those numbers, but you can actually get -9 +100 on Bovada. There’s a ton of sharp action on Pittsburgh, as the thinking is that the Colts are overrated with Hasselbeck under center.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 54% (6,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Favorites after playing the Seahawks are 9-26 ATS.

Matt Hasselbeck is 14-24 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Steelers are 31-14 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Ben Roethlisberger is 5-9 ATS as a non-divisional home favorite following a road win.

Opening Line: Steelers -7.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Steelers 37, Colts 23
Steelers -9 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Steelers 45, Colts 10

Dallas Cowboys (3-8) at Washington Redskins (5-6)
Line: Redskins by 4. Total: 42.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Cowboys -3 (with Romo).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Redskins -3.5.
Monday, Dec 7, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Washington, home of the Washington Redskins and Seattle Seahawks! Tonight, the Redskins take on the stupid Cowboys, who kissed their season goodbye when Tony Romo got hurt on Thanksgiving. Guys, I was sitting at the Thanksgiving table with mother. She wanted to talk to me, but I told her to shut up because I wanted to watch the game. I had a turkey leg in my hand, chanting for Tony Romo to get injured, and sure enough, he re-injured his collarbone when taking a hit. Ha! My Thanksgiving dreams came true. I then told mother that I was thankful for Tony Romo being hurt again. She asked me if I was thankful for her, but I told her to shut up because the game was on! It’s a good thing the Eagles weren’t on, or she really would’ve had it!

Emmitt: Mike, or… uhh… Jongo, it is very rudeness to tell your mother to shut down or up especially on Thanksgiving. The Thanksgiving holiday happen 1,000 years ago when the pilgrims and the aliens sit down and say thank you to each other and then they watch football. If you do not say “thank you” to those around you in your family, especially the women who gived birth to you.

Tollefson: Kevin, I have to agree with Emmitt. Women were made to cook and clean naked for us, that’s why God put them on this planet, but your mother is the one woman who shouldn’t do that. You have to respect your mother. To make up for it, find someone else’s mother and kidnap her so she can cook and clean naked for you. Just make sure she’s a MILF and not someone old, ugly or wrinkly. Those types of women should be thrown into a volcano. Luckily, I happen to own a volcano and I can sell you a time share for $2,500 per month.

Herm: CAN’T KIDNAP A MOTHER! CAN’T DO IT! SHOULDN’T DO IT! DON’T DO IT! GONNA BE BAD IF YOU DO IT! GONNA GO TO PRISON IF YOU DO IT! GONNA GO TO JAIL IF YOU DO IT! AND YOU KNOW WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU GO TO JAIL! YOU KNOW WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU GO TO PRISON! YOU GOTTA SHOWER SOMETIMES! AND YOU KNOW WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SHOWER! YOU KNOW WHAT’S GOING ON IN THE SHOWER! YOU CAN IMAGINE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SHOWER! THERE’S SOAP! AND WHEN YOU DROP THE SOAP, SOMETHING GOES UP THE BACKSIDE! SOMETHING HARD GOES UP THE BACKSIDE! SOMETHING UNPLEASANT GOES UP THE BACKSIDE! SOMETHING HORRIFYING GOES UP THE BACKSIDE! DON’T WANT ANYTHING UP THE BACKSIDE! THAT’S WHY YOU GOTTA HAVE SOAP ON A ROPE! GET SOME SOAP! GET SOME ROPE! TIE THE SOAP AROUND THE ROPE! TIE IT TIGHT! MAKE SURE THE SOAP TIED TIGHT AROUND THE ROPE! OR THE SOAP NOT GONNA HOLD THE ROPE! OR… WAIT, WHAT’S TIED AROUND WHAT!? WHAT’S TIED AROUND WHO!? WHO’S TIED AROUND WHAT!? WHO’S TIED AROUND WHO!? IS THE SOAP TIED AROUND THE ROPE!? OR IS THE ROPE TIED AROUND THE SOAP!? HERM FORGOT! HERM CAN’T REMEMBER! HERM CAN’T RECALL! Herm… uhh…

Millen: Herm, I hate soap on a rope. It was my least-favorite part about my prison outreach program. I always snuck into the showers to take a peek at what sorts of USDA Men frequented in the hot water. I even had some emergency kielbasas with me. I snuck up behind some inmates and said, “Tee-hee, looks like your soap is slippery,” and I’d knock the soap out of their hands so they’d bend over and I’d insert kielbasas into their backsides, but sometimes it wouldn’t work because these guys had soap on a rope! Such bulls***!

Wolfley: I HATE SOAP ON A ROPE, TOO. IN FACT, I HATE ANYTHING ON A ROPE. WHEN I SEE FOOTBALL PLAYERS TYING THEIR NUTS TOGETHER WITH A ROPE, I GET CONCERNED THAT THEY’LL STRUGGLE, AND MORE OFTEN THAN NOT, THEY’LL HAVE A BAD GAME. IT JUST GOES TO SHOW THAT YOU SHOULDN’T TIE YOUR SCROTUM WITH A ROPE.

Millen: Ooohh, can you tell me which men do this? If they are 100-percent USDA Men, I can come up with some fun things to do!

Reilly: You idiots, we’re getting off-topic! The other storyline the producers wanted me to talk about is whether or not the “Redskins” name is racist. I think it is, but only because the Redskins beat my Philadelphia Eagles twice in a row.

Fouts: I don’t think it’s racist, and here’s why: Redskins can refer to any number of things. It can refer to someone who has a rash. It can refer to a potato. It can refer to someone with sunburn. Redskins is far less offensive than Greenskins, which is what the Jaguars were going to call themselves when they entered the league. Greenskins is very offensive to aliens, who have been oppressed for years. If you’re an alien like me, I mean, if you’re an alien not like me at all, and you go on a bus, and someone calls you a Greenskin, you feel very hurt. In fact, you feel like crying inside and the outside, since aliens can cry on both the inside and outside quite literally, not that I’d have any knowledge of that. But if someone calls you a Redskin, it either means that you have a rash, or you’re a potato, or you’re a fake-baker, and you’re most certainly not an alien. Stupid human scum making fun of us from Tau Epsilon IV, we’re not f***ing Greenskins, I mean… uhh… hey, Millen, how about those kielbasas in those backsides?

Millen: Where!? Where are they!?

Charles Davis: Kevin, to answer your question, Kevin, it definitely is racist, Kevin. Redskins is a derogatory nickname for Native Americans, Kevin. Can you think of some other derogatory nicknames for Native Americans, Kevin? Let’s beginning with Prairie N-words, Kevin. That’s a hateful nickname for Native Americans, Kevin. Kevin, I’m getting a voice from inside my headset, Kevin. They’re telling me not to go down this path, Kevin. They’re telling me not to discuss derogatory nicknames, Kevin. Looks like I won’t be able to quiz you, Kevin. But let’s talk about some alternatives for “Redskins,” Kevin. Here are some possibilities that aren’t offensive, Kevin. How about the Washington Unicorns, Kevin? How about the Washington Daisies, Kevin? What about the Washington Puff-Puffs, Kevin? How about the Washington Balloons, Kevin? What about the Washington Greenskins, Kevin? How about…

Fouts: GREENSKINS!? DID YOU JUST SAY GREENSKINS!? THAT’S IT, I’M GOING TO SHOOT YOU WITH MY RAY GUN!

Reilly: GET HIM FOUTS! FRY HIM WITH YOUR RAY GUN AND ERASE HIM FROM EXISTENCE SO I DON’T HAVE TO HEAR HIS BULLS*** ANYMORE! THAT’LL BE ANOTHER THING I’M THANKFUL FOR! We’ll be back right after this!

DALLAS OFFENSE: I’d say “poor Cowboys,” but it’s difficult to feel sorry for them, given all of Jerry Jones’ offseason maneuvers and comments. Tony Romo is out for the season, which would have spelled the end of their season under normal circumstances. However, they reside in the horrible NFC East. If they win this game, and the Giants lose to the Jets, which is very possible, they’ll be just one game out of first place, which is truly remarkable.

So, can Matt Cassel get the job done? Perhaps. There’s at least a chance. The Redskins have documented issues in their secondary, so Dez Bryant could get open for some decent gains. Cassel throwing a horrible pick-six on a weak-armed out is a strong possibility, of course, but the Redskins won’t get as much pressure on him as they did to Eli Manning, given that Dallas’ blocking is better.

The Cowboys can prevent a Cassel turnover by running the ball effectively. The Redskins struggle versus the rush, so Darren McFadden, who has played well recently, can definitely have a big game.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Despite the massive Thanksgiving blowout in which the Panthers scored 33 points, the Cowboys’ defense played well. They limited Carolina’s scoring attack to just 298 net yards and only 4.5 yards per play, which is quite exceptional. Romo’s interceptions absolutely murdered the team. Cassel could provide more turnovers, but it’s not like he’ll be battling an elite defense like the Panthers.

With that in mind, I wouldn’t expect as big of a game from Kirk Cousins. The Redskin quarterback torched the Giants and their ailing secondary, but the Cowboys will provide a greater challenge. They also have a better pass rush, thanks to DE Woman Beater.

Having said that, the Redskins should be able to move the chains on the ground. The Cowboys are weak against the run, and Alfred Morris and Matt Jones could expose this liability.

RECAP: The narrative entering this game is that the Redskins are a solid team that plays very well at home. The narrative, however, is often wrong, or at the very least, doesn’t tell the entire story.

The Redskins do have a great record as hosts. They’re a near-perfect 5-1 at home. However, none of the teams they’ve played at FedEx Field currently have winning records. Here’s the list: Dolphins, Rams, Eagles, Buccaneers, Saints and Giants. Blegh. Washington nearly lost to Philadelphia and was down big versus Tampa. Not that the Romo-less Cowboys are much better than any of these squads, but Washington was an underdog in every single contest, save for the Tampa Bay game, which it failed to cover.

Washington has played much better teams on the road. Both the Panthers and Patriots whacked them. The Jets did as well. In other words, the Redskins aren’t very good. They aren’t bad, but do they deserve to be favored by more than a field goal against any team that isn’t dreadful? Definitely not. The Cowboys lost Romo, but they still have a good defense and a decent running game. They’ll be able to hold their own here.

I think either team can win this game straight up. It’s pretty much a coin-flip for me, so I’m happy to get +4.5. This will be a two-unit selection. It can’t be higher, as Cassel has burned me too many times with dumb pick-sixes, but Dallas definitely feels like the right side.

SUNDAY NOTES: Bet the Cowboys as soon as possible, as this line continues to drop.

FINAL THOUGHTS: If I weren’t cursed, I’d tell you that I hope you bet the Cowboys earlier, given how much this spread has dropped. The line was once +4.5, but now it’s +1.5 despite all of the public money coming in on the Redskins. That’s because the sharps have pounded Dallas. Seeing the spread move through +3 is very telling, as the books don’t even fear a middle. It’s classic sharps versus public here.

The Psychology. Edge: Cowboys.

I don’t know if I like the Redskins in a role as a favorite in a national TV game. There’s too much pressure on an inexperienced team.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

People suddenly want to bet on the Redskins. So much money is coming in on Washington.

Percentage of money on Washington: 76% (65,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

History: Underdog has covered 9 of the previous 14 meetings.

Opening Line: Redskins -4.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Redskins 19, Cowboys 17
Cowboys +4 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cowboys 19, Redskins 16

Week 13 NFL Picks – Early Games
Green Bay at Detroit, New York Jets at New York Giants, Arizona at St. Louis, Atlanta at Tampa Bay, Carolina at New Orleans, Seattle at Minnesota, Houston at Buffalo, Baltimore at Miami, Cincinnati at Cleveland, Jacksonville at Tennessee, San Francisco at Chicago

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Panthers -0.5, Patriots -1.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110

Yeah, I know. This is super square. But I think it has a good chance of winning.

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)