NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2015

NFL Picks (Preseason 2015): 7-10-1 (-$1,420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2015): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2015): 7-10-1 (-$1,420)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 14, 4:25 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at New England Patriots (0-0)
Line: Patriots by 7.5. Total: 51.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Patriots -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -4.5.
Thursday, Sep 10, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: Patriots.

I recently met up with one of my best friends and his girlfriend, who happens to be a football fan. “Are you excited for the season to start?” she asked me. I thought about it, and I wasn’t quite sure. On one hand, I love watching and writing about football, but on the other hand, summer was over and I hadn’t completed all of the goals I wanted to accomplish. I write down about 6-8 goals for myself at the beginning of each summer because it’s easy to get sidetracked when there’s nothing going on. Here was my list:

1. Hire a full-time fantasy football writer

2. Go on multiple vacations to relax and clear my head (and find Jerks of the Week material)

3. Sign with a literary agent so I can get one of my books published

4. Eat 21 popsicles in one day

5. Buy a shore house (mostly as an investment)

6. Get a head start on various in-season content (Emmitt on the Brink, The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts, etc.)

7. Do more NFL Picks research to bounce back from a poor 2014 season

Let’s check out how I fared:

1. I hired Chet Gresham, who perennially places highly in FantasyPros’ rankings. Chet is going to provide tons of great content this season, so I’m excited for that.

2. Mission accomplished. I went to Las Vegas, which spawned five Jerks entries, and I also visited the Jersey Shore on two occasions. I had a great time.

3. I wrote about my trip to the Philadelphia Writers’ Conference back in June. I met with what seemed to be a promising agent there, but I haven’t heard back from him for the most part. I e-mailed him, and he said that his company was so backed up that they were still looking at submissions from April, so it’s not like he said no. Regardless, Mike Elworth, who writes NBA content on this site, sent me a useful link where I can get in touch directly with publishers, so maybe I can skip all this agent B.S.

4. Inspired by Terry Francona, who ate 18 popsicles in one day, I wanted to eclipse his record by 20 percent. I only made it to three, however, because I ran out of popsicles and was too lazy to go back to the supermarket. I asked my girlfriend to do it, but she just shook her head and seemed frustrated that I was doing something so stupid. I wonder why she felt that way.

5. My accountant told me about a great condo investment in Margate. Unfortunately, they don’t allow dogs there because they are a**holes. This is a problem because I have a 10-month-old puppy.

6. Got a lot of this done. Go me.

7. Did this as well. Because I am awesome.

So, in summary, I did everything, except: buy a shore house, publish my book and eat 21 popsicles in one day. I’d normally consider that a failure of a summer, but to make up for that, I also just hired someone who currently writes for ESPN. I won’t announce who it is yet, but he’s leaving ESPN in two weeks and will begin writing for the site on the 23rd. I’m stoked for that.

With that in mind, it was a successful summer. Football is now upon us, so I’m hoping that I’ll have good fortune in the fall with my picks. The good news is that you’ll have a chance to win money either way with our WalterFootball.com 2015 NFL Survivor Pool. It’s free entry, and the winner gets $350. There’s no reason not to enter. We’ll also have our Pick Em contest with monthly winners.

I’ll be posting these NFL Picks throughout the day. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Argh. I was hoping Jimmy Garoppolo would play. I was actually considering the Patriots as my NFL Pick of the Month if Garoppolo happened to be under center. I know that would’ve been risky, given that Garoppolo would be quarterbacking, after all, but the spread would’ve been much lower at -1 or -1.5. Also, good teams tend to rally around their backups, and the Steelers wouldn’t have been as prepared for the new signal-caller.

Alas, that is not the case, as Tom Brady somehow won his appeal despite destroying evidence and failing to cooperate at all with the NFL (yes, he’s clearly innocent.) The spread has now risen to -7 as a result, which I think is insane. Brady’s not that good anymore. He displayed an Alex Smith-esque lollipop arm in the preseason, and I don’t think he’s focused at all, given that he’s been through court all summer; not to mention the fact that he might be going through a divorce soon (per US Weekly). I can’t imagine Brady having the time to prepare for this opponent.

Then again, maybe he won’t need to. The Steelers had a poor defense last year, so what did they do? They just jettisoned a future Hall of Famer (Troy Polamalu) and a legendary defensive coordinator (Dick LeBeau), and they somehow expected things to improve? Yeeesh. Pittsburgh’s stop unit looked 10 times worse in the preseason, as it couldn’t even stop E.J. Manuel and a cast of backups from marching down the field on them on multiple occasions. If Manuel could succeed, what’s to stop a decrepit Brady from having one last hurrah?

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The good news for the Steelers is that they have their lethal scoring attack to potentially make up for their woeful defense. The bad news is they’ll be missing three key pieces in this game: Le’Veon Bell, Martavis Bryant and Maurkice Pouncey.

Bell’s absence will be HUGE. I know Ron Jaworski doesn’t think this is a big deal – he also ranked Matt Cassel ahead of Teddy Bridgewater this offseason, derp – but Bell is extremely important in Pittsburgh’s offense. It’s not just his running talent; it’s also his ability as a receiver out of the backfield, as well as his pass-protecting skills. Roethlisberger couldn’t do anything in the playoff loss to Baltimore because Bell wasn’t around to help block. And now Pouncey won’t play either? That doesn’t sound good, and despite New England’s defensive losses, it still has a decent front seven that figures to apply heavy pressure on Roethlisberger.

The Steelers won’t be able to run the ball with DeAngelo Williams because, well, he’s just not that good. Thus, Roethlisberger will have to do it all amid heavy pressure. The Steelers will still be able to score because of Antonio Brown and Markus Wheaton, but not having Bryant’s end-zone presence could hurt as well. Pittsburgh could stall in the red zone as a result.

RECAP: This was going to be a five-unit play at the very least if Garoppolo happened to be the quarterback. Unfortunately, we’ve lost all value.

I hate to do this, given that this is the first game of the year, and everything, but this is a zero-unit selection for me. I just don’t like either side, and I’m not going to force anything. I guess I’d lean toward the Steelers because I feel like I’m seeing through all of the Brady B.S., whereas the public is just way behind and doesn’t realize that he’s done, but hey, I’ve been wrong before.

Once again, follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Argh, it sucks not to have a strong opinion for the opening game. It’s not surprising that the sharps haven’t weighed in either. They haven’t really bet this game (except for those who took the Patriots at -2.5/-3 earlier in the summer), while the public is predictably on New England.

Here’s the issue: Both of these teams are overrated. The Steelers have a horrible defense, and they are nowhere near the same squad without Le’Veon Bell. The Patriots, on the other hand, will be declining this year because Brady had to deal with way too much this offseason; not to mention his regressing skill set. Brady could have a solid 2015 debut because of Pittsburgh’s abomination of a defense, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he fell flat on his face either.

I’m going to pass. Gun to my head? I’d probably take the bullet. If not, Steelers at +7.5, which is available on Bovada right now.

Oh, and check out my Live Kickoff Blog for my thoughts live during the game.

The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.

The Patriots will likely be relaxed, given that they’ve already “won” with Tom Brady’s suspension being overturned.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

A slight lean on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 69% (104,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Tom Brady is 175-59 as a starter (133-96 ATS).

Opening Line: Patriots -6.5.

Opening Total: 55.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Patriots 26, Steelers 23
Steelers +7.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 51 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Survivor Pick (0-0) – NFL Survivor Pick Advice
Patriots 28, Steelers 21

Green Bay Packers (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)
Line: Packers by 6. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Packers -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -7.
Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Packers.

I’ll be posting betting trends and such here in this spot during the season. Here’s a quick preview:

I wondered the following during the offseason: How do “lesser” playoff teams fare in Week 1 the following season? As you may know, half the playoff teams don’t make it back the next year, so wouldn’t it make sense for the weaker postseason clubs to struggle?

The answer is yes. They do struggle – and at an alarming rate!

Dating back to 1989, Week 1 road underdogs that made the playoffs the previous year are just 5-21-1 against the spread. They’ve lost by an average score of 27 to 17.6. They were actually 3-0 last season, but the Colts had to back door the Broncos following an early, huge deficit to make that happen.

So, why does this work? Well, Week 1 road underdogs are identified as weaker postseason teams because they’d be favored otherwise. Note that the Seahawks, Packers, etc. are laying points as visitors because they are among the best teams in the NFL.

There are two teams that fit this fade system:

Lions +3 at Chargers
Ravens +4.5 at Broncos

I’ll get to those games in a bit.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Much has been made about Jordy Nelson suffering a season-ending injury. However, I didn’t grade it very highly in my NFL Disaster Ratings page, and the oddsmakers apparently agree with me, given that they’ve held steady with this spread. It was -6.5 prior to the injury, and yet it’s still -6.5. No one’s betting Chicago.

There could be two reasons for this. The first is that Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL, and Nelson was never as good as the stats indicated. Nelson didn’t thrive when Rodgers was out of the lineup, yet Rodgers will be able to turn his new receivers into big stat-producers. Second, Chicago’s defense is an abomination. The Bears own an atrocious secondary, so I don’t see how they’ll be able to keep up with Rodgers’ weapons.

I don’t expect the Bears to stop the run either. They’ll be so focused on Rodgers that they won’t be able to pay much attention to Eddie Lacy, who will surely enjoy a big performance. Not that Chicago would have much luck containing Lacy if it happened to be concentrating on him. Shea McClellin is calling the defensive plays at inside linebacker, for crying out loud. That does not sound promising.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Whether the Bears protect Jay Cutler will be a big factor in this game. Cutler had poor blocking this past season and had to settle for lots of checkdowns amid his reckless interceptions. The offensive line will be better in 2015, but by how much? The Packers are capable of producing a strong pass rush, so they should be able to rattle Cutler if he tries to take his time in the pocket.

If the Bears want to move the chains, they’ll have to do so via Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett. The Packers struggled versus the rush last season, though they could be better in that regard with B.J. Raji back on the field. The other possibility is to use the blueprint Chip Kelly established in the third preseason game. Green Bay has a glaring weakness at inside linebacker next to Clay Matthews. That spot is occupied by Sam Barrington, who was completely abused by Darren Sproles and Brent Celek. Forte and Bennett are both better players, so Chicago will almost certainly attempt to exploit this weakness.

RECAP: I like the Packers quite a bit here, even though we’ve lost value with them, as they opened at -4. They’re the much better team, and Rodgers has always abused his divisional foes, especially the Bears (see trends below). Plus, Cutler has been a great fade over the years, so why would I stop betting against him now?

FINAL THOUGHTS: This game is suddenly scary. The sharps are all over the Bears. Pinnacle, the smartest sportsbook, had -6.5 all week, while the number was -7 elsewhere. I still like the Packers, but I’m willing to drop this to two units.

SUNDAY NOTES: This spread has dropped to -6, as the sharps are continuing to take Chicago. Again, I’m concerned about this, so I’ll keep it at two units despite my affinity for betting against Jay Cutler.

The Psychology. Edge: Bears.
The Packers take on the Seahawks next, but I don’t think they look past a divisional rival.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Who wants to bet on Chicago?

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 91% (72,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Jay Cutler is 1-10 vs. the Packers.

Packers are 36-17 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Aaron Rodgers is 58-35 ATS since 2009.

Jay Cutler is 36-65 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Packers -4.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Packers 31, Bears 17
Packers -7 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 31, Bears 23

Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)
Line: Chiefs by 1. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Texans -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Texans -3.
Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Texans.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot in coming weeks. As for this week, here are the six highest-bet sides, as of Tuesday morning:

Packers -6.5

Dolphins -4

Eagles -3 (will be much more come Monday night as a chase game)

Colts -2.5

Vikings -2.5

Seahawks -4

Every single one of these teams happens to be a road favorite. Think there’s a decent chance they go 2-4 against the spread?

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It seems like some Chiefs fans are starting to catch on that Alex Smith isn’t very good. I watched every preseason game this summer, and in the two home games, the crowd moaned and groaned when Smith didn’t do things very well – including when Kansas City was blowing out Tennessee. Most sensible people who root for the team understand that the Chiefs won’t be going very far with Smith at the helm.

Smith can play well versus teams with poor or mediocre defenses. The Texans definitely don’t fit into that category. They have one of the premier stop units in the NFL, thanks, of course, to J.J. Watt. Perhaps the best player in the NFL, Watt will dominate the trenches in every game, but he’ll especially be potent in this matchup because the Chiefs can’t protect Smith very well. Kansas City’s pass-protection issues will definitely be on display, as Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and the rest of the Houston defensive front puts lots of pressure on Smith.

The Chiefs’ only hope is to establish Jamaal Charles early and often. There are two issues with this, however. The first is that Andy Reid tends to have game-day management issues, often forgetting to give the ball to his best players. Second, the Texans signed Vince Wilfork to clog the interior, meaning anything positive Charles does will have to come as a pass-catcher in open space.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans, of course, have quarterbacking issues of their own, and those will be in full display against many teams this season. But perhaps not in this game.

The Chiefs will be without Sean Smith, who will be serving a suspension. Smith is the team’s best defensive back, so not having him around will make things difficult against DeAndre Hopkins, who seems poised to have a breakout year. Kansas City will have to apply heavy pressure on Brian Hoyer as a result, and it may have success doing so. The Texans will be able to protect Hoyer well throughout the year, but when going against a pair of stud pass-rushers in Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, all of that gets thrown out the window.

Fortunately for the Texans, they could have success running the ball. The Chiefs had major issues containing the rush last year, and that was with nose tackle Dontari Poe in the lineup. Poe is injured, however, so there should be rushing lanes available for Alfred Blue.

RECAP: I view these teams as being even, so why are the Texans -1 instead of -3, especially with Kansas City missing two of its best defensive players? That doesn’t make much sense to me. The Texans seem like the right side, especially given that the Chiefs could be looking ahead to their Thursday night matchup against the Broncos. Plus, there is Andy Reid’s poor track record in Week 1 to consider. Remember last year’s blowout loss to the Titans? Houston is obviously much better than Tennessee and should win this game, though I’m not crazy about it.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nothing has really changed here. The spread dropped to pick, which doesn’t surprise me because Andy Reid is highly regarded in Vegas circles. This game is a pass for me.

SUNDAY NOTES: The Chiefs are now favored, but the line movement doesn’t matter all that much. Eric Fisher is out, but that’s not significant either. People within the organization are concerned that Fisher is a wuss who doesn’t handle injuries well, so this isn’t going to help his cause.

The Psychology. Edge: Texans.
The Chiefs have the Broncos in four days, but they are underdogs here, so they could be focused.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 59% (37,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Texans -1.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Texans 24, Chiefs 20
Texans +1 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 27, Texans 20

Cleveland Browns (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)
Line: Jets by 3.5. Total: 39.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Jets -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Browns.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting lots of hate mail this season. Here’s an example:

And how about this, from some guy with a very weird name:

Stay tuned for much more of that in coming weeks. In the meantime, here’s a tribute to the ultimate Hate Mailer, Jerry Jackson.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The anemic Josh McCown is the quarterback. The lethargic Isaiah Crowell is the running back. The incompetent Dwayne Bowe is one of the receivers. Need I go on?

Well, because I’m covering every game, I’ll say this: The Browns could have a bit of success moving the chains. The Jets don’t have much on defense, as Sheldon Richardson is suspended, Quinton Coples has stopped trying, the pass rush is lacking, and the inside linebackers are garbage. I’m not saying the Browns will score 20-plus points or anything, but I think they should be able to convert some first downs and kick a few field goals in the process. It would help if New York still wasn’t strong versus the run, but the Jets’ strength there doesn’t fully compensate for how awful they are in terms of both covering and getting to the quarterback.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Contrary to popular belief, the Browns sport the better defense. Like the Jets, they have a strong defensive front, thanks to the additions of Randy Starks and Danny Shelton. They have a couple of stud linebackers in Paul Kruger and Karlos Dansby, while the secondary is comprised of several Pro Bowlers.

With that in mind, how are the Jets going to move the football on a consistent basis? Ryan Fitzpatrick is, well, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and he doesn’t have much to work with. Even though he’s still playing, Brandon Marshall retired a year ago to begin his broadcasting career. Eric Decker is just meh. I like Chris Ivory a bit, but the Browns figure to be stronger versus the rush with all of the changes they’ve made this offseason.

RECAP: The Jets are the No. 31 team in my NFL Power Rankings, so I absolutely can’t take them at -3. So, it’s either Browns or nothing. It probably should be nothing, but I like Cleveland a bit in this spot. The Jets could be looking ahead to three very tough opponents in the Colts, Eagles and Dolphins after this matchup. And given that we’re getting the slightly better team with a field goal, I feel like Cleveland is worth at least a unit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has risen to +3.5. It’s not enough to make me move to two units, but +4 Sunday morning just might. For the record, public money is moving this line up.

SUNDAY NOTES: I’m still holding out for a +4 spread, but it’s not getting there yet. Let’s hope that changes before 1 p.m.

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.

The Jets have the Colts, Eagles and Dolphins after this “easy” game, so they could look past the Browns.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

A big lean on the Jets, as many don’t want anything to do with Cleveland.

Percentage of money on New York: 76% (35,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Jets are 9-16 ATS in September home games since 2000 (5-5 since in 2009).

Opening Line: Jets -1.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Browns 17, Jets 16
Browns +3.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 39 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jets 31, Browns 10

Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0)
Line: Colts by 1. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Colts -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Colts -1.
Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It’ll be ready either tonight or tomorrow. It’s free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. There’s no reason not to enter. Click the link to register!

BUFFALO OFFENSE: I didn’t think there was a good chance the Bills would win this game earlier in the summer. I mean, it’s almost too simple: Andrew Luck versus either Matt Cassel or E.J. Manuel? Sometimes, I think we can get lost in all of these matchups and betting analytics and trends and Vegas betting numbers, when the simple solution is right in front of us.

Things, however, have gotten more complicated. Tyrod Taylor is now Buffalo’s quarterback, and while that name doesn’t strike fear into the hearts of opposing defensive coordinators – at least not yet, anyway – it’s a virtual guarantee that Taylor will be much better than the other signal-callers the Bills had as options. I don’t want to put too much stock into the preseason, but Taylor was fantastic. He reminded me of Russell Wilson to a degree. His passing wasn’t as good, but the way he maneuvered the pocket and scrambled for big gains was very Wilson-esque.

I’m not proclaiming that Taylor is going to be the next Super Bowl champion or anything, but I believe he can at least be a solid starter – and that is something the Bills haven’t had on their roster in a very long time… perhaps since the early Drew Bledsoe days. Thus, I expect the Bills to move the chains effectively for the most part even though the Colts have made some upgrades to their stop unit, including Trent Cole and Kendall Langford, who figure to provide big upgrades in the front seven.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: While it’s a bit uncertain what we’re going to get out of Luck, we most certainly are aware of what Luck will accomplish. He’s the second-best quarterback in the NFL right now, behind only Aaron Rodgers. And the Colts did a magnificent job of adding more talent around him this offseason, acquiring Frank Gore and Andre Johnson in free agency and Phillip Dorsett via the draft. Luck and T.Y. Hilton had to do things by themselves last season, but that’s no longer the case.

Having said that, things will be very difficult for Luck in this contest. The Bills could have the best defense in the NFL if the Seattle safeties are out or aren’t playing well. Although Marcell Dareus is suspended, they’ll be able to put heavy pressure on Luck with Mario Williams, Kyle Williams and Jerry Hughes. The one weakness Indianapolis has is its offensive line. Luck will have to throw tons of short passes or run around for gains to avoid being brought down in the backfield early and often.

I don’t envision the Colts having much success running the ball either. The Bills figure to be stout versus the rush, so even though Frank Gore is a huge upgrade over the blind and fat Trent Richardson, Indianapolis won’t be able to muster much on the ground.

RECAP: This is probably the game I’m most torn on this week. On one hand, the Bills shouldn’t be 2.5-point home underdogs because they’re a much better team now. On the other hand, the Colts have improved as well, and all Luck essentially has to do is win the game. I’m going to take the Colts here because of the Luck factor. Also, I’m rooting for the Bills to lose this contest, only because I want to bet them heavily in Week 2 against the Patriots, and we’ll get a better number if Buffalo is 0-1 rather than 1-0.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s sharp action on the Bills. This doesn’t surprise me at all. Like I said, I don’t want to bet on Andrew Luck losing a game.

SUNDAY NOTES: Look at this line movement! It’s down to Colts -1, as the sharps are pounding the Bills. I’m fine with it, as all Luck needs to do now is win straight up. I would not bet this game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

No surprise that the public is backing Andrew Luck.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 77% (55,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

True home teams are 21-11 ATS in the last 32 Bills games.

Opening Line: Colts -3.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Colts 20, Bills 17
Colts -2.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bills 27, Colts 14

Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Washington Redskins (0-0)
Line: Dolphins by 4. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Dolphins -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Dolphins -4.5.
Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I feel like I need to lead off with the new extra point rule. Quite frankly, it’s stupid. Very stupid. And no one should be surprised that Roger Goodell came up with it.

I get that the 33-yard one-pointer provides a bit more drama, and that’s nice, but there are two issues with it: First, it makes the kicker position way more important. Kickers already are emphasized too much, as last-second field goals already decide tons of games. Now, extra points will as well? Call me crazy, but I think the actual players should decide the games. There’s nothing we can do about field goals at the end of games, but now, teams that have weaker kickers are even at a greater disadvantage. Like I said, it’s stupid.

Second, if the mob or a Vegas syndicate is going to influence a game – and it happens, albeit more so in college, particularly the MAC – they have a better chance of making sure the fix is in if they bribe/extort a kicker desperately in need of cash. Kickers, after all, usually don’t make very much, which really doesn’t make much sense considering that Goodell is so hell bent on making sure they are extremely important. It makes you wonder if he profits from all of these shenanigans.

2. Another thing that happens to be stupid? How about those new NFL.com Fantasy Football commercials? I’m referring to the ones where the narrator says something like, “If it wasn’t for fantasy football, what would you talk to your friends about?” I like the premise, but the one with Odell Beckham Jr. pisses me off. Victor Cruz asks him, “Should I start you or Julio this week?”

Odell or Julio…? What sort of league is this a**hole in? Is there only one starting spot in his fantasy lineup? Is he in a two-man league? In what scenario couldn’t he start onlyBeckham or Jones? I get that the NFL Network was trying to be funny with these, but it wouldn’t have hurt if they had gotten someone who actually plays fantasy to make sure the ad made sense.

3. The NFL preseason is over. If you missed my NFL Preseason Recaps, check them out here. In addition to discussing the games, I also made fun of the homer announcers. They were as bad as ever this year. The Patriots’ broadcasters wouldn’t shut up about Tom Brady’s nullified supension and failed to discuss the game at all. They even brought in two random bozos who work from Bob’s Discount Furniture to talk about how great it was to have Brady back. Elsewhere, there was this epically awkward interview between a Ravens sideline reporter and John Harbaugh:

Sideline reporter: End of the half, missed opportunities, do you feel?

John Harbaugh: Well, you don’t want to fumble the ball.

Sideline reporter: What about the 2-minute defense giving up the touchdown at the end?

John Harbaugh: We don’t want to give up touchdowns at the end. … Give me a good question, and I’ll answer it.

Sideline reporter: Thank you, coach.

Worst of all, there was Ron Wolfley. Or, maybe, best of all, because he’s so weird that it’s entertaining. Here’s what you’ve been missing if you haven’t kept up with the preseason recaps:

I’d be remiss if I didn’t list some quotes from Cardinals color analyst Ron Wolfley. If you’ve never heard him, Wolfley is insane. I’m not kidding. He says the craziest things, like…

J.J. Nelson is a rail with eyeballs!

Cool. I was thinking about getting a rail with eyeballs as my next pet, so I may name it J.J.

I guarantee you right now, David Johnson has got the sauce on the boys.

During a game? Really? Perhaps later, in the comfort of his own bedroom while downloading some exotic videos, but not during a game, Wolf!

Every orifice of your body opens up and stuff comes out.

Man, what kind of exotic videos does Wolf download?

I like the way he stoked it right there!!!

Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

I’d rather have a sumo wrestler kick me in the cradle!

Uhh… not that there’s anything wrong with that either?

Ted Larsen, you don’t want him to show up if he’s selling something on Craigslist, if you know what I mean. You’ll show up to his apartment, and there will be dim lighting.

Wow. So Wolf is saying that Larsen is a serial killer? Or just a horrible Craigslist seller to deal with?

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: A report surfaced in August that the Redskins internally know that they don’t have any sort of chance with Robert Griffin at quarterback. So, they’re basically thinking the same thing everyone else is. Griffin sucks. He’s very talented, but he’s just not committed to football. Rather than watch film so he can dissect defenses, he’d rather build his brand or tweet something he thinks is clever. It’s a shame that he’s just throwing his career away.

Of course, it doesn’t help that the Redskins couldn’t keep Griffin healthy. Their offensive line is in bad shape, as Griffin learned in the second preseason contest when he left the game with two separate injuries. Trent Williams wasn’t in the contest, but the Redskins will still have trouble blocking on the right side and in the interior. Both areas are very problematic in this matchup, given the ferocious pass-rushers the Dolphins have on their defensive line. I have no idea how they’re going to handle Ndamukong Suh.

The Dolphins aren’t as strong farther away from the line of scrimmage, but I don’t exactly trust the Redskin receivers. Pierre Garcon is not a good fit in Jay Gruden’s offense, while DeSean Jackson doesn’t appear to be 100 percent. Kirk Cousins could have some success hitting Jordan Reed for intermediate gains, but I don’t see the Redskins sustaining many quality drives in this fashion. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Cousins has a meltdown and throws three picks.

MIAMI OFFENSE: If Griffin weren’t such a bust, Washington’s main issue would be its secondary. The team’s defensive backfield is once again in rough shape, as the corners and safeties had major problems tackling in the preseason. It was so bad that the Redskins’ homer announcers were even overly critical about it.

With that in mind, I expect good things out of Miami’s passing attack in this contest. First-round rookie DeVante Parker won’t be a factor, but that won’t matter because Ryan Tannehill has developed such a great rapport with Jarvis Landry. I don’t see the Redskins being able to cover him, or Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings, for that matter. On the rare occasion in which Tannehill can’t find open targets, he’ll be able to use his legs to scramble for first downs.

One area in which the Redskins may have improved is their ability to stop the run. They were atrocious last season in terms of stopping the rush, but the signing of Terrance Knighton may change that. Knighton had to settle for a cheap contract because of his work-ethic concerns, but he looked solid for his new team in the preseason. Thus, I wouldn’t expect a huge performance from Lamar Miller, but it shouldn’t really matter.

RECAP: How are the Dolphins not going to demolish the Redskins? Miami is the far superior team, and it has nothing to look forward to, as its Week 2 matchup is at Jacksonville. The Redskins, meanwhile, are a complete disaster. There’s so much turmoil within the organization, from top to bottom, that I’ll be surprised if they win more than four games this year. They are probably destined for a 2-14 record, which will start with a blowout loss against the Dolphins.

I’m not going to bet this, however. There’s just way too much action on the Dolphins, and I’m already betting on one team that Vegas has a big liability on (Packers). Still, though, that doesn’t mean you should take the Redskins. I imagine all of the shraps (square-sharps) like Chad Millman will be on them, defending the pick with something like, “You almost have to take the home underdog here.” No, you don’t have to do anything; on the contrary, something you should never, ever do in the post-CBA NFL is back the worst team in the league, and that’s exactly what Washington is, according to my NFL Power Rankings.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s way too much money on Miami to bet them. It’s definitely possible that the Dolphins could cover, but the 80-20 Rule is making me hesitate.

SUNDAY NOTES: This spread is soaring up. It’s -4 in most places, but it has risen to -5 at Bovada. If, for some reason, you like the Redskins, wait until a few minutes before kickoff. You might get +6. For the rest of us sane people, get -4 in right away if you want to bet Miami.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

No one is betting on Washington.

Percentage of money on Miami: 92% (49,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

Dolphins are 10-16 ATS vs. NFC teams since 2008.

Dolphins are 5-17 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more since 2008.

Underdog is 59-29 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 88 games.

Redskins are 7-15 ATS in September home games since 2001.

Opening Line: Dolphins -2.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Dolphins 23, Redskins 3
Dolphins -4 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Dolphins 17, Redskins 10

Carolina Panthers (0-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0)
Line: Panthers by 3. Total: 40.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Panthers -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: .

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. College football is different this year. There’s no Lou Holtz! I’m going to miss him. He seemed like a happy old man, and it was always great trying to guess what he was talking about amid all of his indecipherable mumbles.

One e-mailer had a different take on Holtz’s retirement:

With Lou Holtz leaving ESPN it looks to me like two people will be looking for jobs, Lou and the guy that cleans up his spit on set.

2. My College Football Picks are available. One of the teams I had last week was Notre Dame. I bring them up because, hilariously, someone obsessed with former Irish quarterback Tommy Rees has spent most of the spring and summer messing around with Rees’ Wikipedia page. Here’s an example of the mayhem he has caused:

I hope for Rees’ sake that this person is just messing around, and not totally serious. It would suck for Rees to have some weird dude whacking off to all of the posters he has of his favorite Irish quarterback in his mom’s basement.

3. I hate ESPN, but I like that they are incorporating more of a betting aspect into their analysis. For example, they had the spread written down for the Alabama-Wisconsin game (-13), and the host asked Danny Kannell, “Alabama’s favored by 13, who wins tonight?” To that, Kannell replied, “I think Alabama wins, but it’ll be closer than people think.”

Even though Kannell was wrong, I still think this is great. I mean, outside of Alabama and Wisconsin fans (and those who hate the schools), did anyone care if those teams won or lost? Why would some random dude in Los Angeles or New York care about the results of this contest? On the other hand, anyone can bet the game, and people do via Vegas or online sportsbooks, so ESPN should make even more of a concerted effort to discuss the gambling aspects of games.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers’ season was effectively flushed down the toilet when Kelvin Benjamin was lost for the year. A receiver normally wouldn’t have that sort of impact on a team, but Benjamin was extremely important for Carolina. He was Cam Newton’s only reliable receiver. Newton forced passes to him as a result, and he was often successful in doing so. However, for the first time in his career, Newton won’t have a legitimate No. 1 to throw to.

This has proven to be problematic in the preseason. Newton has tried several receivers, but none of them have panned out. Philly Brown drops everything in sight, while Jerricho Cotchery is a non-talent. Devin Funchess, meanwhile, has been banged up. There’s still Greg Olsen, but a tight end, albeit a very talented one, can only do so much.

I also don’t like Carolina’s rushing attack. Jonathan Stewart caught fire at the end of last year, but that was probably a mirage. Stewart doesn’t even have appropriate run blocking now, so I can’t see him producing much in this contest. Newton may move the chains on the ground, but it’ll be difficult for the Panthers to sustain consistent drives.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Contrary to Newton, Blake Bortles has enjoyed a terrific preseason. He has even looked unstoppable at times. I know I said the same thing about Bortles last year, but there are two reasons to believe that things are different this time around. The first is that Bortles was playing versus the backups last summer. He was taking on the starters this time, and he looked very good doing so. The second is that the Jaguars hired Greg Olson as the offensive coordinator. Olson is one of the top quarterback whisperers in the NFL – he had Josh Freeman performing on a Pro Bowl level, for crying out loud – so it’s no surprise that Bortles’ mechanics have suddenly improved.

Having said that, Bortles has a very tough matchup in this contest. The Panthers have a stellar front seven, and their line should be able to win the battle in the trenches. The Jaguars couldn’t block whatsoever last season, but while things should be better, they still have a liability at left tackle in Luke Joeckel, who couldn’t even block a backup pass-rusher on the Lions in the preseason. That doesn’t bode well for this matchup, as Charles Johnson and Kony Ealy are projected to accumulate tons of sacks this season. Everyone knows who Johnson is, but Ealy, a second-round pick in 2014, has enjoyed a dominant exhibition.

Throwing against Carolina’s secondary will prove to be a challenge as well. The Panthers struggled to defend the pass for the most part in 2014, but they improved at the end of the year when they inserted Bene’ Benwikere and Tre Boston into the lineup. Granted, Carolina still has some liabilities there – Charles Tillman and Roman Harper will see extended time – but it’s not like the Jaguars have the personnel to take advantage of this. Allen Robinson looks very promising, but who else is there? Allen Hurns? I guess he’s OK, but meh…

RECAP: I like the Jaguars a bit here. I don’t want to go crazy with them because they’ve fooled me in the past, but they seem to be really turning things around. If I’m right, then this spread is way off. I feel like Jacksonville and Carolina are about even with Benjamin out and Ryan Kalil banged up, so there seems to be good value with the Jaguars +3. The sharps agree, as they’ve bet Jacksonville down from +4.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I like seeing that the sharps are on the Jaguars. I think I may move this to three units Sunday morning. Check back then or follow me @walterfootball.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps havve moved this down to -3, and it’s even Panthers -3 +100 in some places. Not Bovada though, there Jacksonville is +3 -105, which is nice. I’m sticking with two units after thinking about it. I need to see the Jaguars show signs of life early in the season for once.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Only a slight lean toward Carolina, surprisingly.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 58% (21,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Jaguars are 22-48 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 10-22 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Opening Line: Panthers -4.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Jaguars 16, Panthers 13
Jaguars +3 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Panthers 20, Jaguars 9

Seattle Seahawks (0-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-0)
Line: Seahawks by 3.5. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Seahawks -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -4.
Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

If you followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Five years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for the 2013 season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses. In 2014, Donald Sterling answered spammers.

What’s in store for this season? Well, I imagine Tom Brady will be involved. I’m going to post new Spam Mails here with my responses to avoid clutter. My first response has to do with a douche bag.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: I wrote it in my NFL Power Rankings, but I’m liking the Jimmy Graham trade less and less for the Seahawks. Graham hasn’t exactly fit in well so far; he’s been used as a blocker way more than he was in New Orleans, and he and Russell Wilson don’t have the best chemistry. In fact, on one play in the third preseason game, Wilson missed Graham, who then shot back a very dirty look to his quarterback, almost as if he happened to be thinking, “You are terrible, and I hate it here. I miss Drew Brees, and I wish he would answer my texts.”

Graham isn’t the only problem. Max Unger’s absence has created a huge void in Seattle’s offensive line. The blocking has been very weak in the preseason, with Wilson constantly running for his life. Wilson seldom has enjoyed good protection, but this is on another level. He’s been under duress on almost every single play – even against the San Diego backups in the third quarter of the dress rehearsal. With that in mind, imagine what St. Louis’ ferocious front is going to do in this game.

Having said that, I still think the Seahawks will be able to move the chains. Wilson, after all, can make things happen, and he’s not exactly battling the league’s best secondary. He also will have Marshawn Lynch at his disposal. Lynch barely played in the preseason, so his presence should help quite a bit.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Wilson won’t be the only Seahawk who will be welcomed back in the season opener. Earl Thomas, who is recovering from an injury, is also expected to play. Thomas may not be 100 percent, but as long as he’s not decrepit, he should help. Plus, it’s not like the Seahawks will have much of a challenge against St. Louis’ receiving corps. Tavon Austin is just a gimmick player; Brian Quick isn’t on the field nearly enough; and Kenny Britt would put forth more effort than he already has if he took a nap at midfield.

Like the Seahawks, the Rams have an atrocious offensive line. The difference is that Nick Foles can’t scramble like Wilson does. His inability to move around will make sustaining drives against strong defenses very problematic, and I expect Seattle’s pass rush to be potent this year. The usual suspects are back, and now the Seahawks will also have Frank Clark at their disposal. Clark dominated the preseason and is probably the favorite to win Defensive Rookie of the Year.

The Rams will also have issues running the ball. Todd Gurley isn’t ready to take the field yet, while Tre Mason is dealing with a hamstring injury. He may not be 100 percent if he suits up. If he doesn’t, it’ll be up to Benny Cunningham, who won’t exactly threaten Seattle’s elite stop unit.

RECAP: The Seahawks have been a mess this preseason, so I almost want to take the Rams. ALMOST. I can’t do it though. I think this team, save for its defensive line, is a complete mess. Plus, remember last year when the Rams were also hyped heading into the regular season? They were demolished by the Matt Cassel-led Vikings, so I think the Seahawks, who remember the loss in 2014 all too well, will be able to take care of business in St. Louis.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I wrote earlier that I thought the Redskins could be the sharp (square-sharp) pick of the week. It turns out it’s St. Louis. The shraps – those like Chad Millman and Bill Barnwell – love the Rams, which is never a good sign. It’s easy to see why: The Seahawks have a shoddy offensive line, and they seemed to be dysfunctional in the preseason. However, the Rams have similar problems, and they don’t have anywhere near the same talent. Plus, Jeff Fisher, who is not a very good football coach, has a poor track record in Week 1.

SUNDAY NOTES: The shraps are keeping this line down. It amused me on Sunday NFL Countdown when everyone questioned the Seahawks’ offensive line, when the Rams’ blocking is actually in worse shape! I’m almost tempted to bet a unit on Seattle.

The Psychology. Edge: Rams.
The Seahawks have the Packers next week, but I’m not sure they’re looking past the Rams after losing in St. Louis last year.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

No surprise that all of the money is coming in on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 65% (41,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

History: Seahawks have won 17 of the last 20 meetings.

Super Bowl Loser Syndrome: Super Bowl losers are 5-16 ATS in their first game the following season.

Seahawks are 25-35 ATS on the road since 2006 if they’re not coming off an away loss.

Jeff Fisher is 47-32 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Opening Line: Seahawks -3.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Seahawks 23, Rams 10
Seahawks -3.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Rams 34, Seahawks 31

Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games
New Orleans at Arizona, Detroit at San Diego, Tennessee at Tampa Bay, Cincinnati at Oakland, Baltimore at Denver, New York Giants at Dallas, Philadelphia at Atlanta, Minnesota at San Francisco

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 13

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

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2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
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2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
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2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
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2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
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2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
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2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)