NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2015

NFL Picks (Preseason 2015): 7-10-1 (-$1,420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2015): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2015): 7-10-1 (-$1,420)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 14, 4:25 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 1 NFL Picks – Early Games

New Orleans Saints (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0)
Line: Cardinals by 2. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Cardinals -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cardinals -6.
Sunday, Sep 13, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

Video of the Week: This seems like an appropriate video to post at the beginning of the season:

I was hoping to find a “Worst Bad Beats of 2014,” but had no such luck. I imagine that most of my big plays from last season would be on there.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: I mentioned the Saints in the Jimmy Graham trade. To me, they are the clear winners. Yes, Graham will be missed as a potent, intermediate target, but he was such a bad person to have in the locker room that it’ll be addition by subtraction. Oh, and New Orleans obtained Max Unger in exchange, and he’ll be able to shore up an offensive front that struggled to give Drew Brees time last year.

The Saints should be able to move the chains well all season, though I worry about their efficiency in the red zone. The Cardinals still have a quality defense, but they lost Antonio Cromartie this offseason, so it’ll be difficult for them to cover Brees’ weapons. Not that they’d stand much of a chance defending Brandin Cooks anyway. Cooks is poised for a breakout year.

New Orleans also figures to run the ball better with Unger bolstering the blocking. I thought Mark Ingram would be in bad shape because he signed a contract this offseason, but he has looked great in the preseason. Brees will also have C.J. Spiller at his disposal, giving him a dimension he lacked last year when Darren Sproles moved to Philadelphia.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Saints’ defense was hot garbage last season, so the Cardinals will be able to move the ball if things remain unchanged, regardless of any potential issues. The secondary was putrid in 2014, and based on the injuries to Keenan Lewis and P.J. Williams, the same issues should persist. With John Brown entering his second year, the Saints will have their hands full.

The one issue for the Cardinals is the offensive line. Despite the first-round picks they spent on blockers recently, the front remains pretty weak, especially at right tackle, where Bobby Massie is suspended. While the Saints will still have issues in their secondary, their defensive line is definitely better with the addition of Kevin Williams, who looked dominant at times in the preseason.

RECAP: This spread is way off, in my opinion. I have the Cardinals projected to be -6, and yet they are still on the wrong side of three! This makes very little sense to me. What am I missing here? The Cardinals are probably the better team, and they have a dynamic homefield advantage; they are 26-11 against the spread as underdogs or favorites of -3 or less since 2007. On the flip side, the Saints aren’t nearly as potent on the road. Sure, they’ll be in a dome, but they won’t have their crazy fans making noise to ruin the opposing offense.

The Cardinals are one of my top two plays this week. I’m taking them at four units, and I would recommend getting them now before any sharp money takes them to -3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t get why this spread hasn’t risen to -3. The public is on Arizona for some reason, while the sharps are split. But it’s Week 1, and things are weird in Week 1, so we’ll just see what happens.

SUNDAY NOTES: It looks like the sharps have dropped this spread, which is something I don’t understand. I guess if you like the Cardinals, wait until kickoff. Maybe you can get -1.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

A big lean on the Cardinals, surprisingly.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 77% (50,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Drew Brees is 37-26 ATS as an underdog.

Cardinals are 26-11 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Cardinals -2.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Cardinals 27, Saints 19
Cardinals -2 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cardinals 31, Saints 19

Detroit Lions (0-0) at San Diego Chargers (0-0)
Line: Chargers by 3.5. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Chargers -2.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chargers -4.5.
Sunday, Sep 13, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Chargers.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

I’ve been citing that Tom Brady has lost his “clutch” ability over the past few years, but I guess I can’t do that any longer because he just won his fourth Super Bowl. Or, can I…? Brady, after all, reached the “Big Game” with the help of his deflated footballs.

Brady was stuck on three Super Bowls for a long time before he resorted to cheating. So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona. Including this one…

That was from last year’s Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts. The new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts begin next week!

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Chargers had a decent offense in the first half of last season, but things unraveled for them because Philip Rivers got banged up down the stretch. It began near halftime of that Thursday night loss to the Broncos, and they just weren’t the same after that. Rivers is healthy again, for the time being, so there’s definitely cause for optimism for San Diego.

If this were last year, I’d say the Lions would dominate the trenches, but things have changed. Ndamukong Suh is obviously gone, as are several other Detroit defensive linemen. Moreover, the Chargers have upgraded their blocking this offseason, adding stud guard Orlando Franklin in free agency. Rivers should enjoy good blocking, so he’ll be able to move the chains with an upgraded supporting cast. Stevie Johnson will be better than Eddie Royal, while Keenan Allen is actually in shape this year.

Running the ball could be a problem, however. I don’t trust Melvin Gordon just yet. Throughout the preseason, he’s had an issue with stopping his feet upon reaching the line of scrimmage, so that needs to be fixed. I think using the combination of Danny Woodhead and Branden Oliver early on might be better, but I don’t see that happening, given that the Chargers traded up for Gordon.

DETROIT OFFENSE: While the Lions’ defense won’t be nearly as dominant this season, the scoring unit should at least be better. Like the Chargers, Detroit bolstered the offensive line, using a first-round pick on guard Laken Tomlinson. Matthew Stafford didn’t have much time to throw last year, but things could be different in 2015.

If Stafford has ample time in the pocket – and I don’t see why he wouldn’t in this matchup – it could be difficult for the Chargers to stop Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. San Diego has a trio of superb players in the secondary – Brandon Flowers, Eric Weddle, Jason Verrett – but Johnson and Tate provide immense matchup problems for anyone.

The Lions should be able to run the ball as well. While San Diego performed well versus the pass in 2014, it had issues containing the rush. I’m not sure if/how much Joique Bell will play, but Ameer Abdullah showcased his talents during the preseason. He won’t handle a full workload, but he’ll be in position to sprint for some big gains.

RECAP: I like the Chargers for a small play. It seems as though they’re a bit underrated, given that Rivers just wasn’t himself at the end of the 2014 season. The aforementioned trend I mentioned earlier comes into play here as well; the Lions are a playoff team that happens to be a road underdog in Week 1, and teams in that dynamic have struggled over the years.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Lions have a big injury with DeAndre Levy out. That’s huge, as their defense will be even worse than projected. The public, however, doesn’t care about such “trivial” injuries, so the spread hasn’t moved. With that in mind, I’m bumping this up to two units.

SUNDAY NOTES: Sharp money has moved this to -3.5. I still like the Chargers a lot. The Lions are missing their defensive tackles and Levy, so San Diego should be able to move the ball pretty easily.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
The Chargers are being backed by a slim margin.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 62% (13,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Chargers -2.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Chargers 30, Lions 24
Chargers -3.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chargers 33, Lions 28

Tennessee Titans (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)
Line: Buccaneers by 3. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Buccaneers -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Buccaneers -1.5.
Sunday, Sep 13, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

We’re going to have new features on the site shortly, beginning with something we published recently. You can go here to Create Your Own Power Rankings – and once you do, people will be sending you hate mail, just like they do for my NFL Power Rankings.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Marcus Mariota had an up-and-down preseason. Jameis Winston did as well, but he took it to another level. Winston shined in the second game, but was absolutely brutal in the first and third contests. It’s difficult to say which Winston we’ll see in this matchup, given how erratic he was at Florida State. He would often be brutal in the first half and then come to life following intermission. Then again, that was against horrid ACC competition.

The way the Titans played last year, they could have easily been mistaken as an ACC team. They’ve made some changes to be a bit better this season, but they are still going to struggle to stop most teams. Thus, they’re going to have to depend on Winston throwing terrible passes to get the ball back without surrendering any points. Winston could certainly allow that to happen; he seemed more than happy to throw it to the other team in the dress rehearsal.

Fortunately for the Buccaneers, they’ll be able to run the ball effectively with Doug Martin. Those of you who remember how atrocious he was last year may disagree with that, but Martin, now in a contract year, has been in terrific shape this preseason. The Titans don’t project to stop the run well, so he could help the Buccaneers move the chains without turning the ball over.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: I mentioned earlier that Mariota had an inconsistent preseason of sorts. However, he progressed at times, and even though he began poorly in the dress rehearsal, he had some positive moments. He was definitely the better of the two rookies, but whether or not that remains to be the case is still too early to say, as the preseason can be deceiving at times.

It is, however, easy to fall in love with Mariota’s style of play. At the very worst, he’ll be able to scramble for a big chunk of yardage. It would’ve been simple for him to do that against the Buccaneers’ putrid defense a year ago, but things are a bit different now. Rookie linebacker Kwon Alexander has been very impressive this summer and will improve the stop unit overall. Alexander and Lavonte David will form a great duo at linebacker, and along with some other pieces, including Gerald McCoy and Alterraun Verner, the Buccaneers’ defense suddenly isn’t a laughing stock.

Having said that, Tampa’s ability to get to the quarterback and stop the run isn’t great, so the Titans should be able to move the chains. Mariota will convert first downs, while Bishop Sankey, who has looked better this preseason, will help put the team in short-yardage situations.

RECAP: I don’t really have a strong opinion on this, so this is a non-play for me. I am leaning slightly toward Tennessee. These teams are about even, so a -3 spread would be correct in most instances, but not this one, given that the Buccaneers have a horrid homefield advantage. It might be better at 1 p.m. on a September afternoon, but they put this game on at 4 for some reason, almost guaranteeing that there will be a thunderstorm delay. Idiots.

At any rate, Tampa, per its futile home history, should probably be a 1.5-point favorite, so there’s slight value with Tennessee.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are actually on the Titans here. I’d consider them for a unit maybe, but meh…

SUNDAY NOTES: It sounds as though Mike Evans will be out or limited. There’s another reason to like the Titans, so I’m actually going to put a unit on them.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Jameis Winston was chosen first, and he’s also being bet on more.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 52% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Road Team is 56-33 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Dick LeBeau is 19-2 SU vs. rookie quarterbacks.

Buccaneers are 13-32 ATS at home in the previous 45 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -3.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Titans 17, Buccaneers 16
Titans +3 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Titans 42, Buccaneers 14

Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Oakland Raiders (0-0)
Line: Bengals by 3. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Bengals -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Sep 13, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

Once again, you can win $350 in the WalterFootball.com 2015 NFL Survivor Pool. To enter, just click the link and follow the rules. Entry is FREE, so make sure you sign up for a chance to win $350.

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: I was down on the Raiders when I published my season preview because I was skeptical about Derek Carr’s sophomore campaign. Carr lost offensive coordinator Greg Olson, who has gotten the most out of every quarterback he has ever coached – again, he had Josh Freeman playing on a Pro Bowl level, which sounds more and more impressive each time I write it – and it’s never good when a young signal-caller changes systems. Just ask Alex Smith how that worked out for him in San Francisco before Jim Harbaugh’s arrival.

Having said that, I’ve changed my mind a bit. Amari Cooper has been better than advertised, and Latavius Murray is looking like a sure-fire upgrade over the decrepit running backs from a year ago. The offensive line is also stronger, so I think Oakland should be able to move the chains in this contest. The Bengals were horrific in terms of stopping the run in 2014, and they still have injury issues on defense, so Murray figures to be able to pile up yardage in this matchup.

This, of course, will make life easier for Carr, who will continue to have success connecting with Cooper. I think the challenge, however, will be in the red zone, where Carr struggled in the preseason. I’ve actually drafted Sebastian Janikowski in all of my fantasy leagues for this reason.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Based on the feedback I’ve received, it sounds like Bengal fans are ready to bail on Andy Dalton. I’ve been asked if A.J. McCarron is a realistic option by many of the team’s backers. I’m not sure if McCarron is the solution, but I guess it wouldn’t hurt to try him if/when Dalton fails. And it seems like Dalton will fail; he never had the physical ability to take Cincinnati deep into the playoffs in the first place, and now it seems as though his confidence is shaken.

Though the public doesn’t believe this, Dalton actually has a tough matchup in this contest. The Raiders have an improved defense, particularly in terms of the pass rush. Khalil Mack is a beast, and if it weren’t for J.J. Watt, I’d give him a good chance to win Defensive Player of the Year. Additionally, second-round rookie Mario Edwards and 2014 fourth-rounder Justin Ellis did a great job of getting to the quarterback in the preseason.

Oakland will also be better in terms of stopping the run. A big (literally) offseason acquisition was Dan Williams from Arizona. I thought there was a chance Williams would be sluggish after taking the money and joining an inferior team, but that hasn’t been the case. Williams has been in shape, so he and Ellis should do a good job of hindering Jeremy Hill in the interior, putting Dalton in unfavorable passing situations.

RECAP: I like the Raiders more than I have in a long time, so I’m going to bet three units on them covering this game. I think they could win outright, so I’m loving that this spread is more than a field goal.

Dalton does not have a proven track record on the road, and I think the Bengals as a whole could be flat. Why would they take Oakland seriously? Meanwhile, the Raiders may have developed a strong homefield advantage; they took down the Chiefs, 49ers and Bills in succession at the end of the 2014 season, so perhaps this is the beginning of a trend, as Oakland ascends out of the NFL’s cellar.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m worried that there’s shrap action on the Raiders, but I like them considerably. They’re much better now, and Andy Dalton shouldn’t be favored on the road unless he’s playing a truly horrible team like the Redskins.

SUNDAY NOTES: I still love the Raiders. Get them in now if you haven’t already. Don’t wait until kickoff.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.

It’s difficult to imagine the Bengals taking the Raiders very seriously.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

No surprise that the public is backing the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 66% (38,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

Bengals are 20-38 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Opening Line: Bengals -3.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Raiders 18, Bengals 17
Raiders +3 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bengals 33, Raiders 13

Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0)
Line: Broncos by 4.5. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Broncos -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -4.5.
Sunday, Sep 13, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Broncos.

Emmitt on the Brink will be back for Season 8! It’ll start next week, but for now, check out Seasons 1-7, all available by clicking on that link. Season 7 featured Emmitt and his friends attempting to stop a global-wide zombie apocalypse.

DENVER OFFENSE: I think it’s safe to say that Peyton Manning is on the decline. He’s 39, he’s had four neck surgeries, and he can no longer feel his fingertips. That’s not good. Manning has also lost the zip on his passes. Cerebrally, he’s all there, but he can no longer make all of the throws. So, with that in mind, the Ravens are the right side, correct?

I wouldn’t be so sure. The Broncos, despite Manning’s regression, are still one of the better teams in the NFL for two reasons. The first is their ground game. They’re going to run block extremely well under Gary Kubiak, since that’s what all Kubiak teams do. And then, there’s C.J. Anderson, who is a terrific talent. The opposition won’t be able to clamp down on him because Manning is still perceived to be a threat, so he’ll definitely help keep defenses honest.

The Ravens had one of the top run defenses in the NFL last year, but there’s a chance that could change in 2015. Haloti Ngata is gone, while his replacement, Timmy Jernigan, is questionable with a knee injury. Not having him available for this contest will be huge.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: I mentioned that there were two reasons why the Broncos are still an upper-echelon team despite Manning’s decline. The second is the defense. With Kam Chancellor holding out in Seattle, there’s a chance the Broncos could boast the top stop unit in the NFL this year (though Buffalo might have something to say about that.)

The big difference is Wade Phillips, perhaps the best defensive coordinator in the league. Phillips will have the team moving to a 3-4, which will suit Von Miller extremely well. Miller can now concentrate on rushing the passer, so he and DeMarcus Ware will pile up an enormous amount of sacks. Getting through Baltimore’s front could prove to be a challenge, however. Joe Flacco is protected well. Unfortunately for the Ravens, Flacco has no one to throw to besides Steve Smith. First-round rookie Breshad Perriman is injured, while second-rounder Maxx Williams has been a slight disappointment thus far.

I don’t trust Baltimore to run very well either. Justin Forsett is great at catching passes, but he’s not very good at actually rushing the ball. The Broncos figure to be stout in terms of defending the run anyway, so Flacco will have to do most of the work himself, which doesn’t sound too promising considering he has just one legitimate NFL receiver at his disposal.

RECAP: There are multiple conflicting factors here. A reason to side with the Ravens is because the Broncos have to play on Thursday night. Not that Denver is looking ahead to Kansas City, or anything, but the prospect of playing a second football game after just three days of rest is difficult. That’s why teams, especially home favorites, have a poor track record when playing prior to Thursday night.

However, the Broncos could cover because Manning is the greatest regular-season quarterback of all time. He blows in the playoffs, but he’s so incredible when it comes to winning meaningless games. Also, the aforementioned playoff road underdog trend applies here; Week 1 road dogs that made the postseason the year before have a terrible history in terms of covering.

I have a slightly stronger lean toward Denver, but not enough for me to place some sort of wager. Aside from Colts-Bills, this is the toughest pick of the week for me.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no sharp/shrap action. I’m mixed on this game, but would still lean Denver.

SUNDAY NOTES: I still have no good read on this game. I’m just going to enjoy it.

The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.

The Broncos are playing the Chiefs in four days, so there could be a look-ahead. However, Denver hates Baltimore, so it could be focused.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

A strong push on the Broncos here.

Percentage of money on Denver: 66% (52,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Broncos -4.

Opening Total: 53.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Broncos 23, Ravens 17
Broncos -4.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 19, Ravens 13

New York Giants (0-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-0)
Line: Cowboys by 7. Total: 52.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Cowboys -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cowboys -3.5.
Sunday, Sep 13, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is My Birthday – A Surprise in My Bed! Also, you can read all about my crazy trip to Vegas.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Much has been made of DeMarco Murray leaving the Cowboys and defecting for Philadelphia. Some have opined that the offense won’t be the same without Murray, and I don’t disagree with that. However, it won’t be much worse, either. Murray is obviously very talented, but the Cowboys have what could be the best offensive line in the NFL. Running backs are mostly interchangeable nowadays, and one of Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden or Christine Michael could have a big year.

Ultimately, though, it appears as though Tony Romo will throw a bit more, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, considering that he has Dez Bryant at his disposal. Most teams can’t contain that combination, and I don’t expect the Giants having much success doing so, especially with Jason Pierre-Paul out of the lineup. Pierre-Paul’s absence will obviously affect the pass rush, which will give Romo even more time than he’s used to.

Pierre-Paul being out of the lineup will also negatively impact the Giants’ run defense. The fireworks fiend is very underrated in terms of containing ground attacks, so the trio of Randle, McFadden and Michael could show well here.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants aren’t the only team that will be missing impact defensive players. The Cowboys will be without Rolando McClain, Greg Hardy and Orlando Scandrick. The Cowboys had a completely different defense last year when McClain was out of the lineup. Hardy wasn’t on the team this past season, but he’s one of the top pass-rushers in the NFL. The Scandrick loss is huge as well; he’s the team’s top cornerback, so if rookie Byron Jones doesn’t show well, Dallas will struggle in terms of defending the pass.

Speaking of which, perhaps Eli Manning will actually get off to a good start. Manning struggled last preseason and that carried over into the regular season. However, Manning had some extremely difficult matchups to kick off the 2014 campaign. That’s not the case here, given that Dallas will be missing some key personnel. Manning was brutal in his first two exhibition contests, but he rebounded a bit in the dress rehearsal, so that might be a good sign.

If Manning struggles, perhaps the running game will help carry the Giants. It’s unclear who will lead the team in touches between Rashad Jennings, Andre Williams and Shane Vereen, but all three figure to have success. Dallas’ defense, as a whole, was weak versus the run. McClain helped a lot, but once again, he won’t be available.

RECAP: If you’ve blindly taken the road underdog in NFC East games, you’d be 180-135 against the spread (ATS) since 2000, hitting on a 57.1-percent clip with a huge sample size. That’s pretty damn good. It’s even better in divisional matchups. The four NFC East teams are a combined 80-51 ATS as divisional road dogs in that same span – a sterling 61.1 percent!

If that’s not reason enough to bet on the Giants, how about the fact that the Cowboys have the Eagles next week? I know this is a divisional matchup as well, but Dallas swept New York last year. To them, the Eagles are the big challenger in the NFC East, and given that Dallas isn’t particularly well coached, I don’t expect to be completely focused in this contest.

Also, this goes along with what I wrote earlier, but the Cowboys have just been atrocious at home in Jerry’s World. They are 12-22 ATS at home in their new stadium, and the underdog is 54-25 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The shraps like the Giants, but they may have the right side, as road underdogs are automatic plays in the NFC East.

SUNDAY NOTES: This spread has risen to -7, thanks to public support. If you’ve been waiting on a better number, it goes without saying that you need to take +7 right away. I still like the Giants for four units.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

I’m shocked there isn’t more money on Dallas.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 65% (37,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Cowboys have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Giants are 41-24 ATS on the road since 2006 as long as they’re not favored by 3.5 or more.

Eli Manning is 33-24 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

The underdog is 54-25 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Cowboys are 12-22 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).

Opening Line: Cowboys -5.5.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Cowboys 30, Giants 27
Giants +7 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Over 52 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cowboys 27, Giants 26

Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
Line: Eagles by 3.5. Total: 55.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Eagles -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Falcons -1.
Monday, Sep 14, 7:10 ET
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The Game. Edge: Eagles.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

Unfortunately, I’ve only been able to post as Mario. I tried to troll as Vivian and Kevin, but I kept getting the following error:

I Googled that error, and I came across several Facebook help pages where people – real ones; not trollers – were complaining about the same issue. Unfortunately, none of them had a solution; once they were blocked, they were blocked for good.

Here’s an example of the complaints:

I pretty much agree with all of that. There’s nothing worse than idealistic douche bags in a position of power. The good news is that I was able to successfully troll as Mario.

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Much has been made of the Eagles’ high-octane scoring attack in the exhibition games. Chip Kelly’s unit has been unstoppable, as he was set on winning the preseason, and he managed to accomplish that feat. The thing is, none of Philadelphia’s opponents schemed against him, so they were just unprepared. This was most evident when Terrell Suggs and company couldn’t contain Mark Sanchez and the backup offense in the second week of the preseason. When one team tries in exhibition contests, and the other doesn’t, the score is going to be lopsided. We saw this from the Steve Spurrier days when he ran up the score as head coach of the Redskins in meaningless games. It ended up not mattering at all.

But is there a chance that these Eagles under Sam Bradford are legitimate? Sure, but it’s impossible to tell right now. And we may not have our answer after this game, no matter what the result is. The Falcons have struggled on the defensive side of the ball for years, so they may not pose much of a challenge. They’ve made some upgrades this offseason, including at head coach, but it’s going to take them more than one offseason to jump into the upper echelon of defenses.

Nevertheless, as long as Bradford stays healthy – and he’s basically a ticking time bomb – Philadelphia’s scoring attack will be difficult to stop unless a strong defense is lining up on the oher side. The Eagles will move the chains primarily through the air in this matchup; the Falcons were half-decent versus the rush last year, but they couldn’t cover at all. They spent a second-round pick on corner Jalen Collins to help fix that, but he doesn’t appear to be ready to make a difference just yet.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: While the Eagles’ offense is slightly shrouded in mystery, the defense is an even bigger question mark. The unit wasn’t even tested at all this preseason; Andrew Luck left in the middle of the second drive, while Aaron Rodgers didn’t even suit up in the dress rehearsal. Kelly has made some strange moves this offseason, most of which probably won’t pan out, so I’m not very optimistic here.

Besides, even a solid stop unit has trouble dealing with Matt Ryan. This could be Ryan’s best year yet, as two things are happening. First, Julio Jones has established himself as one of the premier receivers in the NFL. Jones has always been great, but he took it to another level last season. He should be even better in 2015, and there’s no one in Philadelphia’s secondary who can even come close to containing him.

The second reason to be optimistic about Ryan’s outlook is the offensive line. The blocking isn’t great, but this is the first year in a very long time that the Falcons aren’t limping into the season with injuries up front. Moreover, left tackle Jake Matthews is entering his second year, so he figures to be better in 2015.

RECAP: You can profit by fading the media, especially in Week 1. Everyone in the media is slurping the Eagles right now. There are Super Bowl proclamations, simply based off preseason results, which is just absurd. All of this hype has prompted the spread to rise. It has hit Philadelphia -3, and who knows, it could soar past that key number on Monday night when dumb public bettors are chasing losses.

This spread doesn’t make much sense to me. The Eagles are not six points better than the Falcons. Perhaps two points or so, but not six. And I don’t think they’ll have Atlanta’s full attention, anyway. They’ve been hearing how great they are all summer, so they could be overconfident heading into a game against an opponent that had a losing record last year. However, the Falcons are poised to rebound, and I’m sure they’ll be pissed that the media is going to be talking about nothing but Philadelphia entering this game.

I may tack on more units to this Monday night, but for now, I’m selecting the Falcons for a pair.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: I’m very close to moving this to three units with the Falcons now +3.5. Maybe +4 is even possible? Wait until kickoff to place your bets. I’ll be back around 6:30 with final thoughts.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No +4, but I’m increasing my unit count to three on Falcons +3.5, which is available on Bovada right now. A couple of things in addition to what I’ve written already: First, all ESPN is talking about tonight is Philadelphia. The Falcons have to feel very disrespected right now. I’m sure they want to remind the nation that they are actually playing. Second, Vegas had its worst opening week in 20 years. At least one of Atlanta or San Francisco has to cover tonight, or, as I was told, “bodies will be buried in the desert.”

The Psychology. Edge: Falcons.

The Eagles have been hearing about how great they are, and now they are three-point road favorites? Sounds dangerous.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

All aboard the Eagles’ bandwagon!!!

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 79% (110,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Matt Ryan is 30-22 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Eagles -1.5.

Opening Total: 53.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Falcons 34, Eagles 31
Falcons +3.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 55 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Falcons 26, Eagles 24

Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-0)
Line: Vikings by 3. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : 49ers -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Vikings -1.5.
Monday, Sep 14, 10:20 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Vikings.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to San Diego, home of the 49ers! In tonight’s game, the 49ers take on the Minnesota Twins. I’m Kevin Reilly, and it’s great to be with you for another season. That’s what the teleprompter says, anyway. I’m dreading being with these a**holes again for another year. But this year, we get to welcome in a new a**hole, Ron Wolfley.

Wolfley: IT’S GREAT TO BE HERE, KEVIN. I CAN’T WAIT TO TALK ABOUT THE GAMES. ON ONE SIDE, COLIN KAEPERNICK PLAYS LIKE A MAILBOX WITH ONE OF HIS LEGS CUT OFF. I DON’T KNOW HOW IT GOT CUT OFF, BUT IT DID, AND COLIN KAEPERNICK PLAYS THAT WAY. ON THE OTHER SIDE, THERE’S TEDDY BRIDGEWATER. YOU CAN FRY A WATERMELON ON HIS FOREHEAD, THAT’S HOW HOT HE IS RIGHT NOW.

Emmitt: Mike, I think you just make a racist remarker. Why you gotta say that the black quarterback in this football game like the watermelon vegetable? Colin Kaspersnicks is white himselves, so do that mean he do not like the melonwater because he happen to be white?

Herm: COLIN KAEPERNICK’S NOT WHITE! HE’S NOT WHITE! HE’S NOT THE COLOR WHITE! HE’S NOT THE HUE WHITE! HE’S NOT MRS. WHITE EITHER FROM CLUE! MRS. WHITE WAS HOT IN THE MOVIE! SHE HAD FLAMES! FLAMES ON THE SIDE OF HER FACE! FLAMES! BREATHING! HEAVY BREATHS! BREATHING HEAVY BREATHS! BREATHING BREATHS! ANYWAY, I… uhh… WHAT WAS HERM TALKING ABOUT? HERM FORGOT WHAT HE WAS THINKING! HERM FORGOT HIS TRAIN OF THOUGHT! IF ONLY HERM BOUGHT A TRAIN TICKET! THEN HE WOULD REMEMBER HIS TRAIN OF THOUGHT! BUT WHERE DO YOU BUY A TICKET FOR A THOUGHT TRAIN!? AND HOW MUCH DOES IT COST!? AND HERM NEEDS TO KNOW IF HE HAS ENOUGH IN HIS BANK ACCOUNT TO BUY A TRAIN TICKET! HERM NEEDS TO CHECK HIS ACCOUNT NOW! HERM NEEDS TO… uhh…

Reilly: Ugh, I can’t believe I have to spend another year with this idiot. I told mother, if she didn’t help me find another job that I was going to stop vacuuming the house when she asks me to. And I mean it! Mother, I know you’re watching this. The house will be dirty from now on!

Tollefson: Kevin, you are pathetic. I can’t believe you were vacuuming your house, even if it was for your mother. Men aren’t supposed to clean at all. That’s for the women. As far as I’m concerned, women should be thanking the heavens that we even allow them to wear clothes. Of course, if it were up to me, they’d walk around in the nude at all times!

Millen: Then I’m glad you’re not president, Tolly. Who in their right mind wants to see a naked woman? Not me, that’s for sure. As far as I’m concerned, 100-percent USDA Men should waltz around naked. How incredible would life be if you were surprised by a nude 100-percent USDA Man in the streets who tried to ram random kielbasas into your backside? Life would be glorious, gentlemen. Glorious! We need nude 100-percent USDA Men!

Fouts: And by nude, you mean walking around with no clothes. And by no clothes, you mean no shirt, no pants, no jacket, no socks, no underwear, no shoes. If you had just a shirt on and nothing else, you wouldn’t be nude. But if you took your shirt off, you would be nude. And then if you put socks on, but nothing else, you wouldn’t be nude anymore. But what if you slip off your socks? Well, that depends how many socks you slip off. If you slip off one sock, you’re still not nude because you still have one sock on. If you slip two socks off, you are nude again. If you slip three socks on, you put socks on the wrong way because only one should go on each foot. But if you have three feet, you’ll obviously need three socks.

Charles Davis: Dan, did you know there are different types of socks? There are knee-high socks. Those go to your knees. How about ankle socks? What about no-show socks? How about dress socks? Do you know when you wear those types of socks, Dan? Give up already, Dan? It’s when you dress up, Dan! There are more types of socks, Dan…

Fouts: Have you been talking to me this entire time? Who are you?

Reilly: Hold on, guys. My phone’s ringing. Hello? Oh, hello, mother. NO! DON’T THROW OUT MY SAM BRADFORD POSTERS! I LOVE THEM! I NEED THEM! OK, I’LL VACUUM! I’M SORRY! AND YES, I’LL DUST AND CLEAN THE WINDOWS, TOO! NOW? OK, GOTTA RUN! WE’LL BE BACK AFTER THIS!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Teddy Bridgewater improved over the course of his rookie campaign last year, and it appears as though he will be even better this season, based on how he looked in the exhibition games. I don’t see a reason why he would slow down in this matchup, given the issues the 49ers have in their secondary. San Francisco lost their starting cornerbacks this offseason, and will now be forced to use players named Kenneth Acker and Shareece Wright. That’s not good.

Bridgewater is just one of three reasons why Minnesota’s offense will be better in 2015. The second is Adrian Peterson. It’s unclear if he’ll ever be the same player he once was, but he’ll certainly be an upgrade over Jerick McKinnon. Like Bridgewater, he has a plus matchup in this contest against a defensive line that lost both Justin Smith and Ray McDonald in the offseason.

The third reason is the expected improvement of Matt Kalil. The former first-rounder struggled immensely this past year, but an injury was the apparent culprit. He should be better going forward, and he’ll get his 2015 campaign off to an easy start against a 49er pass rush missing Aldon Smith. It’s staggering how many players this defense lost from a year ago.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Of course, the most prominent person the 49ers said goodbye to was Jim Harbaugh, a top-five NFL coach who was run out of town because of incompetence and hubris in the front office. Harbaugh made Colin Kaepernick, who won’t be the same without his former coach. Kaepernick was even regressing in Harbaugh’s final year, and there were whispers that he is uncoachable. Based on what transpired in the preseason, it appears as though this is going to be a long year for Kaepernick.

This will be a long game for Kaepernick as well. He doesn’t have great weapons to bail him out – Anquan Boldin has to slow down at some point, while Torrey Smith is overrated – and I don’t know how his offensive line is going to deal with Everson Griffen, Sharrif Floyd and the rest of the Minnesota pass-rushers. The 49ers lost their starting right tackle and right guard as well this offseason, while center happens to be a position of weakness.

The best aspect of the 49ers’ scoring unit is the running game, as Carlos Hyde looked pretty sharp in the preseason. Unfortunately for Hyde, he happens to have a rough matchup to start the 2015 season, as the Vikings appear to have a strong ground defense.

RECAP: I love the Vikings this year, but now is not the time to take them. Like the Eagles, but to a lesser degree, they’ve been hearing about how great they are. Conversely, everyone in the media has crapped on San Francisco. This could be a statement game for the 49ers.

There are two other reasons to like the 49ers. First, bettors are pounding the other side like crazy. The sharps hit Minnesota when the spread was +4ish, and the public has taken the line all the way to Vikings -2.5. It’s insane how much it has shifted. Vegas now has a huge liability on San Francisco, so it wouldn’t surprise me if there were any shenanigans in this game. Second, Circadian rhythms could affect the Vikings. This is an unusually late start, and the 49ers have a strong track record in home night games.

With all that said, I can’t bring myself to bet on this home dog. The 49ers are one of the worst teams in the NFL, according to my NFL Power Rankings, and I don’t like the idea of siding with one of the terrible teams in the league, especially during the first half of the season, in the post-CBA NFL. FINAL THOUGHTS: Even though Vegas needs this one, regardless of whether the Falcons hold on, I’m not crazy about the 49ers. They seem like the right side because of motivational factors and Circadian rhythms, but I really like Teddy Bridgewater and this Minnesota team. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Vikings pulled out a close contest. I’m still taking San Francisco though, and while I’m tempted by the +3 available at Bovada, I’ll pass in terms of actually wagering.

The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.

This is a dangerous game for the Vikings. They are suddenly favored, while the 49ers have been hearing how awful they are.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Lots of money coming in on the Vikings.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 75% (85,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Vikings are 14-25 ATS in outdoor road games since 2008.

Opening Line: 49ers -3.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: 49ers 23, Vikings 20
49ers +3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
49ers 20, Vikings 3

Week 1 NFL Picks – Early Games
Pittsburgh at New England, Green Bay at Chicago, Kansas City at Houston, Cleveland at New York Jets, Indianapolis at Buffalo, Miami at Washington, Carolina at Jacksonville, Seattle at St. Louis

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Browns +9.5, Bills +8.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110

Moneyline: Browns +165 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline: Titans +135 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$70

Moneyline: Raiders +135 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Dec. 13

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)