NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)

NFL Picks (2014): 35-40-1 (-$290)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 6, 5:25 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 5 NFL Picks – Late Games

Minnesota Vikings (2-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-2)
Line: Packers by 8. Total: 46.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Packers -8.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -9.
Thursday, Oct. 2, 8:25 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Packers.

WEEK 4 RECAP: I was happy to hit my September NFL Pick of the Month with the Vikings covering against the Falcons. I’ll admit I was concerned Sunday morning when the spread continued to rise in Atlanta’s favor. I have no idea what that was about; I’ve never seen spread movement like that on a heavily backed road favorite. Fortunately, it didn’t matter.

The rest of my week was mediocre. I split four-unit selections – won with the Packers; lost with the Panthers – and did the same with my two-unit choices – won with the Buccaneers; lost with the Redskins. I’m ashamed of myself for not seeing that Washington would be flat following its emotional defeat to the Eagles, and I’m even more upset that I didn’t recognize that the Panthers were incredibly overrated and should’ve been larger underdogs. It didn’t help that DeAngelo Williams got hurt – Carolina did nothing on offense after he left – but I doubt it would’ve mattered.

I’ll be posting NFL Picks all day Wednesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: If this game were scheduled for Sunday, there probably wouldn’t be a posted spread at this time. That’s because Teddy Bridgewater is seen as a game-time decision. Bridgewater played brilliantly in his first start last week, but hurt his ankle while diving for the goal line in the fourth quarter. Given that the Vikings are playing on such a quick turn-around, the coaching staff might be inclined to sit their young quarterback to keep him healthy for the rest of the year.

If so, it’s tough to like Minnesota’s chances with Christian Ponder at the helm. Ponder is a pedestrian signal-caller, and there’s no doubt that the rest of the team will be deflated with him under center because they know he doesn’t have what it takes to lead his team to a victory over a tough opponent. Granted, the Packers have an awful defense, but Ponder won’t be able to outscore Aaron Rodgers in a shootout.

If, however, Bridgewater gets the nod, he’ll have a chance to keep his team within striking distance the entire evening. The Packers’ defense can’t do anything right, so Minnesota will move the chains just as easily as it did against the Falcons. Of course, this assumes Bridgewater is at 100 percent. The Louisville product could just as easily be hampered, which would make him less of a running threat. That’s a significant part of his game, so if he’s not scrambling, he won’t be able to keep up with Rodgers either.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers silenced all doubters last week with a brilliant performance in Chicago. He told reports to “relax” prior the game and backed it up with a big victory. Of course, Chicago’s defense didn’t provide much of a challenge, but based on how they played against Atlanta, the Vikings won’t either.

Prior to half of Matt Ryan’s offensive line leaving the game, Atlanta moved the chains quite easily versus Minnesota’s defense. This was surprising because the Vikings’ talented secondary limited the Saints to just three scoring drives the week before. Ryan was just locked in. There’s no reason to think Rodgers won’t have similar success.

Something the Packers would like to do is finally establish the run. Eddie Lacy finally found the end zone last week, but his offensive line once again couldn’t open up lanes for him. It’s hard to imagine it thriving despite battling a defense that has surrendered an average of 124 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks.

RECAP: I like to bet on good teams missing their quarterback, but the Vikings are a different story. I don’t think they’ll be competitive without Bridgewater. If he’s out, I’m going with a two-unit selection on Green Bay. If he plays, however, I may not bet this game. I’m taking the Packers no matter what, but I’d need to think about what sort of wager I’d have with Bridgewater in the game.

Again, Week 5 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday. I’ll announce via Twitter @walterfootball when each selection is posted.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As I hoped, Teddy Bridgewater has been declared inactive for the Vikings. I’m sticking with my previous decision to take Green Bay for two units despite there being some sharp action on the Vikings and tons of public money on the host. The Packers are usually a strong wager at home, and I just don’t see Christian Ponder being competitive. The rain, by the way, doesn’t seem like it’ll be an issue for the Packers, as the wet field could cause defensive backs to slip.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
A big game for both teams.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

Tons of money on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 80% (50,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Packers have won 7 of the last 8 meetings (excluding 2013 tie).

Vikings are 11-23 ATS in outdoor road games since 2008.

Packers are 22-12 ATS at home since 2010.

Packers are 33-16 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Aaron Rodgers is 49-30 ATS since 2009 (8-4 ATS as a favorite of 12+).

Opening Line: Packers -9.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: .

Week 5 NFL Pick: Packers 30, Vikings 16
Packers -8 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 42, Vikings 10

Chicago Bears (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (2-2)
Line: Panthers by 2. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Panthers -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -3.5.
Sunday, Oct. 5, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

WEEK 5 BETTING TRENDS: I’ve identified poisonous teams that I would never bet on to save me from some bad picks. The Giants seem to have gotten their act together, so I’ll remove them from the list. I think we can get rid of the Buccaneers as well; they’re so much better when Gerald McCoy and Michael Johnson are in the lineup.

I’m going to add the Titans. They’ve burned the sharps two weeks in a row. I have no idea why Ken Whisenhunt is playing lesser-talented veterans over more-promising rookies, but it’s hurting team morale. I may consider the Bills as well because there might be a quit factor once everyone realizes how awful Kyle Orton is.

Poisonous Teams:
Raiders
Jaguars
Titans

Two weeks, I discussed point value in terms of the Las Vegas Hilton advance spread. How has that dynamic done? Well, it was 4-0 ATS in Week 2 and 3-1 ATS the following week. As for Week 4:

Before Week 2	After Week 2	ATS Result
Vikings -1.5	Vikings +3	Vikings cover
Jaguars +9.5	Jaguars +13	Jaguars lose ATS
Patriots -6.5	Patriots -3	Patriots lose ATS
Dolphins -7	Dolphins -4	Dolphins cover

It was 2-2 against the spread, though one of the losers was a poisonous team. Thus, we’re looking at something that has been 9-3 ATS this year. Pretty crazy.

Here are this week’s value lines (movements of two or more):

Before Week 4	After Week 4
Falcons PK	Falcons +4.5
Patriots -3	Patriots +1.5
Texans +3	Texans +6

Barring an injury to a quarterback, there’s nothing that occurs in one week that should move the spread three or more points. These are ridiculous overreactions.

Speaking of public overreactions, I think there’s serious money to be made by fading NFL.com’s Power Rankings. I’ve joked about them on my own NFL Power Rankings page. Elliot Harrison – I call him the “guy with the fancy hair” – posts rankings where he radically shifts teams around based on one-week overreactions. Basically, he’s the epitome of a square bettor.

I’ve tracked how we would’ve done by betting teams he’s dropped six-plus spots on a given week and fading teams he’s moved up six-plus slots. I also added matchups where one team rose five spots, while the opponent shifted downward five spaces. Here are the results so far this year (the number in the parentheses is the movement of the team in his rankings):

Week 2:
Bet Chiefs (10): W
Fade Falcons (9): W
Bet Rams (8): W
Bet Bears (8): W
Bet Saints (8): L
Bet Patriots (7): W
Fade Vikings (7): W
Fade Lions (6): W
Bet Cowboys (6): W

Week 3:
Fade Bears (11): L
Bet 49ers (9): L
Fade Cowboys (7): L
Fade Browns (7): P
Bet Seahawks (6): W

Week 4:
Bet Dolphins (11): W
Fade Giants (9): L
Bet Panthers (9): L
Bet Packers (8): W
Fade Steelers (8): W
Bet 49ers (6): W
Bet Vikings (5+5): W

Week 2: 8-1 ATS
Week 3: 1-3-1 ATS
Week 4: 5-2 ATS

That’s a total of 14-6-1 ATS. Week 3 was a flop… sort of. Looking at it closely, the Cowboys shouldn’t have covered against the Rams – they trailed 21-0, and then Jared Cook dropped that touchdown – while the 49ers were well ahead of the Bears until they started doing stupid stuff and self-destructed.

Week 5:
Bet Bills (12)
Bet Patriots (11)
Bet Falcons (9)
Bet Saints (8)
Fade Cowboys (8)
Fade Giants (8)
Fade Lions (7)
Fade Packers (7)
Fade Colts (7)
Bet Jets (7)

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers have struggled to score the past two weeks. There are a number of reasons for this. Primarily, Cam Newton is not close to being healthy. He’s not even looking to scramble, and on the rare occasions in which he’s forced to, it looks like he can barely move. It also doesn’t help that the offensive line is starting several turnstiles. I have no idea what the front office was thinking when it decided that Byron Bell should be the left tackle this year. He hasn’t been able to block anyone.

DeAngelo Williams being banged up has also been an issue. The Panthers were actually moving the chains pretty decently last week until Williams got hurt. Once he left the game, nothing. Williams will be out for a few weeks, which is terrible news. Jonathan Stewart will probably be back, so the Panthers have to be relieved that they don’t have to start Darrin Reaves in this contest. Stewart isn’t very good either, but unlike Reaves, he’s at least an NFL-caliber talent.

With all of that said, Carolina’s issues may seem less prevalent this week. The Panthers are battling a woeful Chicago defense that surrendered 400-plus net yards to Geno Smith a couple of Monday nights ago. The Bears can’t get consistent pressure on the quarterback, while their secondary, save for Kyle Fuller, can’t cover anyone. They aren’t as bad versus the run, but I expect Newton to be able to engineer enough scoring drives to put his team in position to win.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Carolina’s defense has been having some major problems as well. Greg Hardy’s been out, but that doesn’t excuse the horrific tackling. Charles Johnson has done nothing because of a nagging hip injury. The linebackers, save for Luke Kuechly, have struggled, while the secondary has been exposed now that there isn’t nearly as much of a pass rush.

Jay Cutler has to like the sound of a poor defensive backfield. Cutler was unstoppable in the first half against the Packers, but self-destructed following intermission with terrible decision-making. That’s always a possibility with Cutler, but he at least has another promising matchup.

Having said that, it would be in the Bears’ best interest to keep the ball out of Cutler’s hands and feed it to Matt Forte as much as possible. The Panthers are dead last against the run in terms of YPC, as they looked completely helpless trying to stop Justin Forsett and Lorenzo Taliaferro last week. How are they going to contain Forte when they were incapable of stopping Baltimore’s middling talents?

RECAP: I have no interest in betting this game. These are two overrated teams I’d like to fade going forward, so it’s unfortunate that they’re matched up against each other. If I had to choose a side, I’d take the Panthers, simply because they’ll have more motivation to rebound. They’re coming off two losses in which they were humiliated. They’ll have something to prove. The problem is that they’re not any good.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s lots of action on the Bears even though Michael Ola will be starting for them at left tackle. The Panthers seem like the right side, but I’m not a big fan of the pick.

SUNDAY NOTES: This line has dropped Sunday morning, as the public is all over Chicago without much public support on Carolina. I still wouldn’t bet it, but I do want to note that the winner of this contest will probably be a great fade next week (Bears at Falcons; Panthers at Bengals). I found it funny though that four of the five ESPN analysts picked the Bears even though the Panthers are favored. That’s an indication that Carolina is the right side.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

The Bears are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 79% (28,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Bears are 17-8 ATS after losing to the Packers since 1992.

Jay Cutler is 32-59 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Cam Newton is 14-8 ATS off a loss as long as he’s not favored by 7.5 or more.

Opening Line: Panthers -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 5 NFL Pick: Panthers 24, Bears 20
Panthers -2 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Panthers 31, Bears 24

Cleveland Browns (1-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-3)
Line: Browns by 1. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : No Line (Locker).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Titans -1.5 (Locker) or Browns -2.5 (Whitehurst).
Sunday, Oct. 5, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: TBA.

VEGAS UPDATE: The Vegas sportsbooks had record winnings on the Sunday of Week 1 and collected lots of money the following week. They had to give some money back to the public, and they managed to do that the past couple of weeks. This past Sunday hurt early on because the Packers, Colts and Lions cashed in for the public. However, the house won back some of their money with the Vikings and Cowboys. It’s a good thing Minnesota covered for both of us. People at sportsbooks would’ve been fired all while I’d be slitting my wrists.

Once again, follow @walterfootball for updates.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Good news, bad news for the Titans. The good news is that Ken Whisenhunt told the media that Bishop Sankey will get more of a workload this week. Whisenhunt previously used the vastly inferior Shonn Greene over Sankey because the latter had poor “footwork.” The tap-dancing classes Sankey enrolled in a couple of weeks ago must be really paying off.

The bad news is that Charlie Whitehurst will once again be in line to start if Jake Locker can’t go. Locker might be able to practice Wednesday, so there’s a chance he’ll be able to play Sunday. His questionable status is the reason why there’s no spread on this game, and I can’t blame the books for waiting. Whitehurst proved to be incapable of consistently moving the chains last week, even against a poor defense like the Colts. He’ll have a much tougher time against the Browns. I don’t get why Whisenhunt won’t consider the superior Zach Mettenberger. He must be struggling at his tap-dancing classes.

Locker starting will obviously give the Titans a good chance to pull out a victory. The Browns have been dreadful against the run this year, surrendering 137.7 rushing yards per game, so the upgrade at running back will pay off, and Locker will have ample time to find his receivers as a consequence.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns don’t have quite the quarterback controversy on their hands, as many anticipated. That’s because Brian Hoyer has done very well as a game-manager. He hasn’t made any mistakes thus far – no turnovers yet this year – and he’s completed 64.6 percent of his passes. Cleveland couldn’t really ask much more of him, as he’s had the team in position to win all three games this season.

That should once again be the case, as the Titans struggle to defend the run. They’ve allowed an average of 141.3 rushing yards to their previous three opponents, and they’ll have to deal with Ben Tate, who will be back from injury.

Tate will have success on the ground, which will open up some nice passing opportunities for Hoyer. This will be key, as the one thing Tennessee does well defensively is put pressure on the quarterback, thanks mostly to Jurell Casey, who is once again enjoying a fantastic season despite moving to the 3-4.

RECAP: There’s no spread posted on this game yet. I’m not sure where I’ll be going with it if Locker plays. If Whitehurst gets the nod again, I’ll definitely pick the Browns. Either way, I’m not going to have any units on either side.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I have no read on this game. The Titans are terrible, but the public is betting the Browns with reverse movement.

SUNDAY NOTES: This is the least-bet game of the week. It’s fitting, as I have zero feel for it.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

The Browns are public dogs.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 71% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Titans -1.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 5 NFL Pick: Browns 19, Titans 16
Browns -1 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Under 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Browns 29, Titans 28

St. Louis Rams (1-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-1)
Line: Eagles by 7. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Eagles -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Eagles -4.
Sunday, Oct. 5, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Eagles.

HATE MAIL: Another week, another stack of hate mails. These are from the comment boards:

Dirp diggity dirp pal, 4 units on Caronlina you say?????? You sir are perhaps the dumbest piece of $hit wanna be handicapper ive ever seen, is this a joke or something? It ain’t April buddy. All these yes men can stand up for you and your douche site but I’m gonna call a spade a spade. Keep on stroking that little prick of yours to the nfl classics channel, feels good, don’t it? Lmfao!!!!!!!!!!!!

Someone else responded with the following: When he writes ‘derp derp’ is he really saying he wants to ‘slurp slurp’ on Walt’s bone? How pathetic do you have to be to spend your weekends trolling Walterfootball? I think he’s the load Tom Brady’s haircuts should have swallowed.

@Walter wrote…..With all of the money on Atlanta, you’d expect the spread to rise, yet the number has fallen. It’s already +2.5 in some places. Get +3 if you can because this line, in all likelihood, will continue to move in Minnesota’s direction. Well dirp de dirp de dirp walter, that line is UP to 4 at most spots now, nice call, you locked at 3, hubris at it’s best!

Why didn’t you call me out on this earlier in the week before this happened? It’s like you’re waiting for my mistakes so you can point each of them out. Sounds like you have a fun life!

Whats up all! I haven’t been on this site in like two years, I just remembered it the other day again. Anyway, you guys all used to ride Walt back then, and I see it’s still the same today lol. He makes the same old picks on the same crap teams every week still. Always Miami, always the Bills, always the Jags, always TB, and always who ever is playing Eli. It never changes people lol! Come on here to read the blog?…Yes!…But take his advice and waste your money…You’re an idiot! He’s a better comedian…hes not a good handicapper.

I was offended by this until you said I was a good comedian. That cheered me up, so thank you!

Keep picking against the Eagles. You have to be right eventually. Right? If the Eagles are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL then I’m not really sure what you consider the 49ers to be. They couldn’t close out the Bears with Marshall and Jeffery unable to run and they couldn’t hold on against Drew Stanton…let that sink in for a bit. This 49ers team has some deep rooted issues and will continue to be inconsistent.

I was right picking against the Eagles last week, so you’re correct, I was right eventually. Thanks for the encouragement!

Speaking of twice, odd that you thumbs up your own posts twice right after you hit submit. It’s the internet, no one cares dude.

You obviously care about my thumbs-up count.

Another week goes by, another week where Walt only picks the insult comments to reply to. Hot girlfriend lmao, for someone who brought up GOT you should know, “the King never has to say I’m the King.” I hope she’s ok with eating out on Burger King coupons with how your picks are going this year.

Tywin Lannister never had trolls post comments on his Web site.

We actually went to Taco Bell last night. Her choice. But we had plenty good eatins when I was up 50something units last year (or 70something units if Just Sayin wants to count my teaser winnings)

The following posts were about my Vikings’ pick of the month. There’s nothing I can say that beats the stupidity of these posts:

– If you really think The vikings are going to be Atlanta as your bet of the month, you either lost your F@CkING mind or work for vegas and make a cut getting people to bet that way. No AP, No Rudolph, No Cassell and a rookie starting and the secondary is one of the worst in the NFL. Worst prediction I have seen you done yet. Almost every prediction you have dogs covering. Every single one in the early games. No wonder you are down $20 this year. Thank god I stopped betting according to your predictions or I would be down as well lol

– No kidding, this guy goes on and on about how the Ravens and Falcons lost to the Bengals because they were facing an upcoming Thursday night game against a division opponent. Then advises people the following week to bet on a team missing their star player, starting a rookie QB and playing a division game the following Thursday???? People,if you are gonna take this guys advice on this game and bet 7 units, I have some timeshare property you might also be interested in

– Add on to those points that Kalil is playing like garbage. so we have a rookie making his first ever start, and his qb best friends left tackle is sucking the big one this year, and he gets a third string rb instead of best in the league child beater peterson. i sure hope the bank is open so i can go and take out a second mortgage for this pick of the month! no wonder this dude is down 3grand over the past 4 years

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles had major problems offensively at San Francisco, as they crossed midfield just twice all game. Nick Foles called it “one of those days,” but there are major issues with the offensive line. Center Jason Kelce and All-Pro guard Evan Mathis have both been out, as has the suspended Lane Johnson. Left tackle Jason Peters got hurt Sunday and didn’t look the same upon his return.

Johnson will be back in the lineup against the Rams, but he won’t be enough against St. Louis’ dominant defensive line. Even with Chris Long out, the Rams are capable of putting tons of pressure on the quarterback with Robert Quinn, Michael Brockers and Aaron Donald. Thus, Foles may not have enough time in the pocket to exploit what looks to be a favorable matchup; St. Louis’ secondary isn’t very good, so his receivers should be able to get open frequently.

The Eagles also should be able to run the ball effectively. They haven’t been able to do so since their Monday night victory over the Colts, but unlike the Redskins and 49ers, the Rams don’t contain the rush very well, as their linebackers have been a huge disappointment. Neither James Laurinaitis nor Alec Ogletree has been playing well.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Like the Rams, the Eagles have plenty of problems defensively. Their primary issue is stopping the pass. Save for Malcolm Jenkins, no one in their secondary is playing particularly well. This includes the overworked Cary Williams, who has been especially brutal this season. The pass rush is inconsistent as well. It put plenty of heat on Colin Kaepernick this past Sunday, but it was non-existent versus the Redskins, who don’t have a quality offensive line.

With that in mind, Austin Davis should play well. Davis has performed above expectations in his two starts, completing 72.3 percent of his passes and maintaining a YPA of 8.0, which is pretty impressive. Davis would actually be 2-0 as a starter had Jared Cook not dropped an easy touchdown in the end zone. We’ve seen Chad Henne and Kick Cousins have great success passing against this Philadelphia defense, so I can’t imagine why Davis would have a different result.

What Philadelphia does well defensively is put the clamps on the run. The team is a decent 10th against the rush in terms of YPC (3.69). It had trouble Sunday against Frank Gore, but I’ll chalk that up as an aberration because the Eagles have been stout otherwise against ground attacks. With that in mind, they should be able to stymie Zac Stacy, which will limit the Rams’ scoring attack a bit.

RECAP: The Rams are one of the five picks I really like this week. I’m taking them for three units, so here are three reasons why:

1. The Eagles won’t be fully focused for this game. They have a very important divisional game against the Giants coming up, and it’s doubtful that they’ll take the Rams very seriously.

2. The Rams, meanwhile, are coming off a bye. They’ve spent two weeks preparing for Chip Kelly’s offense. Jeff Fisher has been excellent with time off; he’s 7-2 against the spread since 2002 following a bye.

3. The Eagles continue to be overrated. They would’ve lost to the Colts had the officials not screwed up that non-call on the hold. They probably would’ve lost to the Redskins – who were exposed last week, by the way – if Foles’ interception hadn’t hit the ground on the play in which Chris Baker legally hit him. They trailed 17-0 to Chad Henne’s Jaguars, and they would’ve failed to cover had Henne not been strip-sixed late. Philadelphia should be 0-4 against the spread, and if that were the case, the public wouldn’t be in love with them. Instead, everyone is slurping the Eagles because ESPN’s analysts are telling them to. Let’s continue to take advantage of the media being wrong once again.

FRIDAY UPDATE: The sharps are unloading on the Rams, and they’ve dropped the spread to +6.5 in most places. You can still get it at +7 on Bovada. I’m going to lock that in.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I found a cool trend that favors St. Louis: The Eagles are 0-7 against the spread in their previous seven games prior to playing the Giants. The sharps are on the Rams.

SUNDAY NOTES: Wow, I hope you locked in the Rams at +7. They’re down to +4.5, as the sharps have absolutely pounded them Sunday morning. I still like the Rams at +4.5, but maybe for only two units at the very most.

The Psychology. Edge: Rams.

The Eagles have a big game with the Giants coming up.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

No surprise that the public still loves the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 71% (29,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Rams are 25-38 ATS on grass since 2001.

Jeff Fisher is 7-2 ATS off a bye in the regular season since 2002.

Jeff Fisher is 41-28 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Eagles are 10-26 ATS at home since 2010.

Eagles are 0-7 ATS before playing the Giants since December 2010.

Opening Line: Eagles -7.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: .

Week 5 NFL Pick: Eagles 23, Rams 20
Rams +7 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Eagles 34, Rams 28

Atlanta Falcons (2-2) at New York Giants (2-2)
Line: Giants by 4.5. Total: 50.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Falcons -2.
Sunday, Oct. 5, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: .

If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It’s free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. It’s not too late to enter, so sign up soon!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: What happened to the Falcons’ offensive line at the end of last week’s game was insane. Justin Blalock, Joe Hawley and Lamar Holmes all exited with various injuries, leaving tight end Levine Toilolo as the only viable option to play right tackle. Matt Ryan couldn’t do a single thing once all three blockers were gone.

Hawley and Holmes are both out, but the Falcons should be OK. I’ve always maintained that the most difficult thing NFL coaches have to do is make in-game adjustments for key players who suffer injuries. The Falcons will be more prepared to play without their to linemen in this contest. They won’t block as well, but it won’t be a massive drop-off like it was at the end of the Minnesota game. I have faith in offensive line coach Mike Tice to get the most out of his backups.

Tice will need to do just that because his team will be facing a Giants’ pass rush that came alive last Thursday night and harassed Kirk Cousins the entire contest. New York also specializes in shutting down the run, so Atlanta’s four backs will be stymied on the ground. Ryan will have to do everything on his own, but he has the skill-position talent around him to beat an improved Giant secondary.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Eli Manning, meanwhile, doesn’t have the best weapons to work with, but he deserves major credit for improving following a dreadful exhibition and disappointing season opener. Granted, he just threw all over a horrible Washington secondary that was missing DeAngelo Hall, but it’s not like Atlanta’s defense is much better.

The Falcons just allowed Teddy Bridgewater to piece together an extremely impressive NFL debut, so there’s no reason to think Manning won’t be able to compile similar numbers. Atlanta has no pass rush, so Manning will once again have a clean pocket to operate from.

Atlanta is probably worse against the rush than it is at stopping the pass – it’s very close – so that means Rashad Jennings will be able to complement Manning with a dominant performance. Jennings didn’t get much work last week because of the short amount of time off, but he’s had time to rest. He’ll be in top shape to take advantage of the Falcons’ poor defense.

RECAP: The Falcons are another one of my top plays this week. Here’s why:

1. This is one of the games I highlighted earlier when I discussed spread value. The Falcons were pick ’em prior to the Week 4 games, yet they’re just +4.5 now. Barring injury to a quarterback, there should never be that much line movement based on one week of action. The public has overreacted – see the NFL.com power rankings – meaning there’s great value with Atlanta.

2. The Giants may not be focused for this game; they saw the Falcons lose to the Vikings, and they may believe that they have bigger fish to fry with the Eagles and Cowboys coming up next.

3. We have a nice home-road dichotomy here. Underdogs in their second-consecutive road game tend to cover the spread at a two-thirds clip. The Giants, meanwhile, don’t have any sort of homefield advantage. They’ve been very poor as hosts when favored by more than a field goal, owning an 11-17 ATS record in such situations.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still like the Falcons in this game. This spread is still ridiculous; it shouldn’t have moved four points because of one result. I love getting a great quarterback like Matt Ryan as an underdog off a loss.

SUNDAY NOTES: Some sharps bet the Falcons down to +3 in the morning. Other sharps, plus the public, have brought it back to +4.5. People are split on this game. I still like the Falcons for three units.

The Psychology. Edge: Falcons.

The Giants have been hearing how great they are. Following this non-divisonal contest, they have to deal with the Eagles and Cowboys.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 54% (32,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Matt Ryan is 12-9 ATS as a road favorite (9-7 ATS outdoors).

Falcons are 18-4 ATS following a loss of 6+ in the previous 22 instances.

Mike Smith is 7-2 ATS after a loss as a favorite.

Mike Smith is 5-2 ATS on the road following a road loss.

Opening Line: Giants -4.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: .

Week 5 NFL Pick: Falcons 30, Giants 27
Falcons +4.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 50.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Giants 30, Falcons 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) at New Orleans Saints (1-3)
Line: Saints by 10. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Saints -11.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -15.
Sunday, Oct. 5, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Saints.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

I’d be remiss if I didn’t write about Bill Simmons this week. I initially was part of the #FreeSimmons crowd on Twitter. I thought it was ridiculous that ESPN would silence Simmons for simply calling Roger Goodell a liar. Of course Goodell is a liar. It’s so blatantly obvious that he is full of s***. I guess it’s a good thing I don’t work for ESPN, or they’d suspend me for several weeks as well. So much for freedom of the press, right? It’s like we’re in Communist Russia where people would disappear if they said anything bad about Stalin. Goodell, Stalin, same difference.

However, as Emmitt Smith would say, I’ve done a complete 360 on this. It seems ridiculous that ESPN would suspend Simmons for saying something bad about such an obvious liar, but Goodell and the NFL are partners with ESPN. The network makes so much money by being able to broadcast Monday Night Football, and guess where some of that money goes? Into Simmons’ bank account. So, Simmons, in a sense, tried to undermine his own earning potential as well as the success of his own company. If ESPN didn’t suspend Simmons and lost its NFL rights as a consequence, the network obviously wouldn’t make as much money. Simmons wouldn’t lose his job, but probably wouldn’t be in line for any sort of raise. Meanwhile, some nameless underlings would probably have to be let go. All because Simmons had to declare that Goodell is a liar.

Simmons, during his tirade, said he would “go public” with information he has about ESPN if it suspended him. If so, where is he? Why isn’t he saying anything he threatened to go public about? It’s almost like Simmons wanted to be suspended so he could have three weeks off. Oh, and the PR he received for this is priceless.

Simmons now has a tough choice. If he wants to have integrity, he’ll walk away from ESPN once his contract is up. The PR he bought will help him fund Grantland so he can pay his “young and up-and-coming” writers. Sure, he’ll lose all traffic and money from ESPN, but if I can run a Web site with several employees, so can he. If, however, Simmons wants to have the greatest amount of success and make as much money as possible, he’ll tuck his tail in between his legs and stay silent from now on. He’ll lack all integrity, but it’s the best career move.

I honestly wouldn’t know what I would do. Well, maybe I would. Lacking all integrity, I’d storm into the ESPN offices and demand a raise. I’d point out all the press I received on Twitter and elsewhere, and argue that I could be just as successful on my own.

Maybe that’s what this whole thing has been about. Did Simmons foresee this opportunity? We may never know, but if he stays with ESPN, perhaps that’s an indication.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: For all the talk about how awful the Saints are – they’re in the 20s of NFL.com’s stupid power rankings despite being a top-10 team according to the Vegas sharps – they’re still No. 1 in offensive efficiency despite playing three games on the road, where they’re obviously not as good. That’s not good news for Tampa.

The Buccaneers played well defensively at times last week, thanks to the return of Gerald McCoy and Michael Johnson, both of whom put tons of pressure on Ben Roethlisberger. However, they still surrendered many big plays because of some holes in their back seven. Mason Foster still missing is huge, as Dane Fletcher has not done a good job replacing him. Meanwhile, cornerback Johnthan Banks continues to be atrocious.

Drew Brees has to be licking his chops in anticipation of this matchup. Jimmy Graham must be looking forward to it as well; Heath Miller just posted a huge stat line versus Tampa, so imagine what the vastly superior Graham will be able to accomplish.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Mike Glennon proved to be better than Josh McCown in his victory over Pittsburgh. He didn’t throw any passes while falling down, so that was a plus. However, his victory was a bit deceiving in that he completed only half of his passes. And it’s not like he was battling a tough defense either; Pittsburgh’s stop unit has been ravaged by injuries and will continue to struggle until everyone gets healthy.

But what about the Saints’ defense? Don’t they suck too? Of course they do, but Glennon may not have as much success in this contest because he’ll be playing in the Superdome, where opposing quarterbacks have markedly less success because of the insane amount of crowd noise.

The Buccaneers will have to counter this by establishing Doug Martin. The former first-rounder hasn’t played well this year, but he has a great matchup on paper because the Saints are 25th against the rush in terms of YPC. The problem is that Martin may not get much of an opportunity to carry the ball if the Saints jump out to an early lead.

RECAP: The Saints should win very easily. In fact, they’re my second-favorite play of the week. Here’s why:

1. New Orleans is an auto-bet at home. The team is 34-13 against the spread as a home favorite since 2007. That’s sick.

2. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, will be challenged with yet another road game. This is their third-consecutive away contest. Underdogs in such situations have struggled over the years.

3. The psychology of this game favors New Orleans. The Buccaneers are coming off an emotional, last-second victory, while the Saints, at 1-3 and coming off a loss, will be desperate for a win. They know that dropping to 1-4 will pretty much spell the end for them.

4. I love betting on big, home favorites going into a bye. Hosts laying 6.5 points or more are an incredible 35-8 ATS with a week off on the horizon since 2002.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still love the Saints. There are still some 10s out there, but I have a feeling this spread will rise come Sunday morning. Oh, and by the way, the Saints are still sixth in the Vegas’ sharps power rankings, so those who think I have New Orleans too high in my NFL Power Rankings are way wrong.

SUNDAY NOTES: Nothing has changed. I’m on the Saints at -10, and it appears as though the line could be moving up. As I’m typing this, Pinnacle raised the spread to -10.5, so it looks like they want more action on the Buccaneers.

The Psychology. Edge: Saints.

The Buccaneers are coming off an emotional victory. The Saints are in a must-win, and they have nothing to look ahead to with a bye coming up.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

A decent lean on the host.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 70% (21,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Saints have won the last 5 meetings.

Lovie Smith was 6-1 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+ as the Bears’ coach.

Saints are 34-13 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Saints are 8-11 ATS as double-digit favorites under Sean Payton.

Drew Brees is 28-16 ATS after a loss with the Saints (8-4 ATS as an underdog).

Sean Payton is 8-4 ATS as a favorite after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Saints -11.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: Dome.

Week 5 NFL Pick: Saints 31, Buccaneers 13
Saints -10 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Under 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Survivor Pick (3-1)
Saints 37, Buccaneers 31

Houston Texans (3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1)
Line: Cowboys by 6. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Cowboys -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cowboys -4.
Sunday, Oct. 5, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well.

Random College Football Notes:

1. As a Penn State alumnus, Saturday’s loss to Northwestern was embarrassing. It was horrible to watch, as the offense just hasn’t done anything without Bill O’Brien. It was especially aggravating considering how inept the TV announcers were. The game was on the Big Ten Network, so the quality wasn’t as good. The play-by-play guy and the color analyst didn’t seem interested in listening to each other, as they constantly repeated what each other was saying.

For example, the play-by-play guy shouted at one point, “That’s the longest run of the day for PSU!” Seconds later, the color analyst responded, “That’s the longest run of the day, partner.” Really? Thanks for paying attention.

2. Staying on the topic of TV broadcasters, Tim Tebow has had a mixed performance thus far with the SEC Network. He’s had some interesting things to say, but there have been a couple of times where he’s looked at the wrong camera. His throwing motion is also taking way too long, so it’s a surprise the SEC Network hasn’t cut him yet.

I’m bringing up Tebow in the wake of the Kyle Orton news. How puzzling is that Tebow can’t get a job, yet Orton is starting for an NFL team? Tebow took over for Orton in Denver during the 2011 season and was a billion times better. You’d think that if the Bills had any clue, they’d reach out to Tebow. Stupid homoclites.

3. Speaking of stupid homoclites, look at this idiot taking a selfie following a Duke Johnson touchdown in a recent Miami game:

I wrote a recent Jerks of the Week entry on how much I hate selfies, and this guy epitomizes the complete narcissism, self-absorption and utter idiocy when it comes to people taking pictures of themselves. I don’t know this loser, but I hate him. I hope he broke his phone so that he never got to post his stupid selfie on Facebook.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: I might as well call this section “DALLAS DEFENSE” based on how much the Cowboys have been hyped up following their Sunday night victory over the Saints. They held Drew Brees in check for a good portion of the game, so they have a good defense now. At least that’s what the media has been telling us. The general public, of course, slurped up what the former players on TV said even though most have short memories and barely pay attention to the games.

The truth behind Dallas’ defense is that it’s still not very good. The Cowboys surrender the 25th-most yards per drive in the NFL despite battling Jake Locker and Austin Davis in two of their matchups. And speaking of Davis, how have people so quickly forgotten that Davis marched down the field as he pleased against Dallas in Week 3? The Rams would’ve won that game had Jared Cook not dropped an easy touchdown late in the game. What would the public perception be if Cook had caught that ball?

Ryan Fitzpatrick is such a “blah” quarterback, but he’ll have success moving the chains in this contest. Having Arian Foster a week healthier will help, but the Cowboys simply won’t offer much resistance because they can’t.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys will have great success moving the chains as well. The Texans rank sixth in defensive efficiency, but that figure is a farce because three of their four opponents thus far have been the Bills, Raiders and Robert Griffin-led Redskins. They struggled against the Giants, and Dallas is a similar-quality opponent.

The Texans will obviously be better defensively once Jadeveon Clowney returns, but they’ll need him to help stop the run in addition to get after the quarterback. That’s because they’re 28th against the rush in terms of YPC. Recall that Rashad Jennings had a career performance against them just two weeks ago. If Houston couldn’t stop Jennings, how will it possibly contain DeMarco Murray?

Murray will set up Tony Romo with plenty of easier opportunities. J.J. Watt will be able to make things difficult for Romo, but no other healthy Houston player can consistently rush the passer. Getting Clowney back will be huge in this regard as well. Unfortunately for the Texans, Clowney said Tuesday that it’ll still take him a few weeks to return to the field.

RECAP: I was planning on making a multi-unit bet on the Texans. I saw that Dallas had two tough matchups coming up (Seahawks, Giants), and I noted how this spread was inflated due to last week’s Sunday night result. However, I changed my mind once I discovered that Houston is playing the Colts just four days after this contest. Favorites are the ones that are typically distracted by an impending Thursday game, but the Texans have to be distracted, given that their battle against Indianapolis is so much more important than this one. They’ve never had much success against the Colts, and that affair could be the deciding factor in who wins the division.

With that in mind, this is a non-wager for me. I’d like the Texans for 2-3 units even if they had the Indianapolis game next Sunday, but a four-day turn-around will be too much.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps moved this spread up when it was at -4. They’re not going to bet it at -6.5. There’s good value with the Texans now, but they could have one eye on Thursday’s game against the Colts.

SUNDAY NOTES: This spread has dropped Sunday morning. It’s +5, +5.5 or +6 (Bovada) depending on where you look. Some professional bettors took the Cowboys earlier in the week, but other sharps have pounced on Texans +6.5 and +6.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Cowboys are hearing about how great they are. Following this non-conference matchup, they battle the Super Bowl champion Seahawks and divisional-rival Giants. However, the Texans have to prepare for their Thursday night affair against the Colts, which will be for the division lead.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Surprising that there’s equal action.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 50% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

The underdog is 45-19 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Cowboys are 10-19 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).

Cowboys are 3-14 ATS when favored after a win since 2010.

Opening Line: Cowboys -4.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: .

Week 5 NFL Pick: Cowboys 27, Texans 24
Texans +6 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cowboys 20, Texans 17

Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Detroit Lions (3-1)
Line: Lions by 6. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Lions -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Lions -6.
Sunday, Oct. 5, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Lions.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Four years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for this past season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses.

Check out the new Spam Mails page here with my most recent responses.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills have finally done it. They’ve found their quarterback. They gave big money to Ryan Fitzpatrick, but that didn’t work out. They used a first-round selection on E.J. Manuel, but he busted. Now, Kyle Orton will step in and finally lead Buffalo to the Promised Land.

I’m being facetious, of course, as Orton is nothing but a below-average player who is very much like Fitzpatrick. However, as we established last week, Fitzpatrick is better than Manuel, so Orton should be an upgrade. Unlike Manuel, he’ll actually be able to hit open receivers once in a while. He performed well in last season’s finale, but that was against a putrid Philadelphia defense. The Lions will provide more of a challenge.

Detroit has the No. 7 rush defense in terms of YPC (3.42), so I wouldn’t expect much out of C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson as ball-carriers. That means Orton will be in unfavorable passing situations, which is never good news against Ndamukong Suh.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Bills’ stop unit will have to work extra hard to give Orton a chance. They might have a shot depending on Calvin Johnson’s status. Megatron was hampered with an injury all last week, and it showed against the Jets, as he was in and out of the lineup. This bogged down Detroit’s scoring attack for the most part, though Matthew Stafford was much better than he would’ve been a year ago without his top weapon.

Stafford will face similar problems against Buffalo. The Bills put a tremendous amount of pressure on the quarterback, and they seem to have a huge edge with Mario Williams going up against a backup right tackle. The Lions will have to pay extra attention to him, which will free up Marcell Dareus, Kyle Williams and Jerry Hughes.

Detroit will also have trouble establishing the run. The Bills are second versus the rush in terms of YPC (2.80), as they just limited Arian Foster and the Texans to just 15 yards on the ground. Stafford clearly has his work cut out for him, as he won’t have ground support, will have pressure in his face, and may not have his elite target completely healthy.

RECAP: The Bills are in a good spot, considering that they are playing their second-consecutive road game as an underdog off a loss. They’ll also be better with Orton at the helm, while Detroit could once again be limited if Megatron isn’t 100 percent. Also consider that Stafford hasn’t done a good job maintaining success in his career thus far. He’s just 2-5 against the spread when favored following two or more consecutive victories. With all of that considered, I still can’t wager on Buffalo. I think the Bills are the right side, but they have not played well on the road the past few seasons.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Bills. I’m not a fan of the pick because the Lions are a much better team. It’s interesting that Vegas actually downgraded the move from E.J. Manuel to Kyle Orton.

SUNDAY NOTES: This is another spread that the sharps have pounded. They’re all over Buffalo. If you like the Bills, you can still get them at +6 on Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
It’s surprising that there isn’t much more action on the host.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 54% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Bills are 10-3 ATS off consecutive losses in non-divisional road underdog games since 2002.

Bills are 5-15 ATS since November 2011 as a road underdog.

True home teams are 17-4 ATS in the last 21 Bills games.

Matthew Stafford is 2-5 ATS as a favorite following 2+ wins.

Opening Line: Lions -7.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Dome.

Week 5 NFL Pick: Lions 20, Bills 16
Bills +6 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bills 17, Lions 14

Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Indianapolis Colts (2-2)
Line: Colts by 3. Total: 49.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Colts -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Ravens -1.
Sunday, Oct. 5, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

Video of the Week: If you enjoy video games like I do, chances are you’ve heard of the Angry Video Game Nerd, who posts hilarious videos about crappy old games. Even if you’ve watched some of his videos, you may not have seen some of his most recent work, which happens to be my favorite: The AVGN Review of Big Rigs:

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: It’s amazing how much different the Ravens’ offense has looked in Weeks 2-4 compared to the season opener. The first game of the season was a tough one; not only were they battling Cincinnati’s strong stop unit, but they also had a Thursday night matchup they were looking ahead for. The Ravens have moved the chains very effectively since, especially last week versus the Panthers when they got big play after big play with ease.

I’m going to assume that Baltimore maintains its excellent offensive output. The team will be battling the Colts, after all, who are very poor in every regard on the defensive side of the ball. Indianapolis doesn’t have any sort of pass rush with Robert Mathis out, so Joe Flacco will have all the time he needs to find his targets for more long gains. His receivers shouldn’t have any trouble getting open.

The Ravens will also run the ball very proficiently. It’s just a matter of which running back will receive most of the workload. John Harbaugh has suddenly turned into a Bill Belichick-type fantasy hater, screwing owners every single week. It’s annoying, but it’s hard to knock Harbaugh because what he’s doing is working extremely well.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts have their own issues at running back. They keep utilizing Trent Richardson more than they should, and it’s already cost them in one game. Despite his awful performance against the Eagles, Richardson continues to get more work than the superior Ahmad Bradshaw. That hasn’t mattered against scrub teams like the Titans and Jaguars, but battling Baltimore will be a completely different story.

Thanks to the strong play of Haloti Ngata, C.J. Mosley and Brandon Williams, the Ravens haven’t surrendered 100-plus yards on the ground to any opponent thus far. Richardson is not going to be someone who will snap that trend, so Andrew Luck will have to take matters into his own hands. Unfortunately for Luck, he’ll have to deal with a pass rush that has been pretty forceful thus far. The Ravens put a ton of pressure on Cam Newton last week, and it’s not like Luck is protected very well.

Having said that, Luck should still have success because he’s just that good. Plus, Baltimore’s secondary is the weakness of its stop unit. Jimmy Smith has been the only defensive back who has played well this year; everyone else, including 2013 first-rounder Matt Elam, has struggled.

RECAP: I’ve taken the Colts the past three weeks, but that’s coming to an end. I like the Ravens to cover the spread for a couple of reasons. First, Baltimore is a bit better, so I like that we’re getting the hook. More importantly, however, is the fact that the Colts have a Thursday game of their own on the horizon. They battle the Texans four days after this contest, so I doubt they’ll be focused for Baltimore. That matchup against Houston just means so much more because it could decide the AFC South. This game doesn’t mean nearly as much, so the Colts could be relaxed.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp action on the Ravens. I still like Baltimore for a couple of units.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps bet the Ravens a bit earlier in the week, but they’ve unloaded on them Sunday morning. The public still doesn’t realize how poor of a spot teams are in when they have to play an upcoming Thursday game.

The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.

The Colts have a divisional game upcoming in four days against the 3-1 Texans.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
Slight lean on the host.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 61% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Andrew Luck is 14-5 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Colts -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

Week 5 NFL Pick: Ravens 27, Colts 26
Ravens +3 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 49.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Colts 20, Ravens 13

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4)
Line: Steelers by 6. Total: 47.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Steelers -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -1.
Sunday, Oct. 5, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

Remember when Tom Brady used to be the most clutch quarterback in the NFL? He had that epic drive against the Rams in the Super Bowl. He then engineered numerous other fourth-quarter comebacks, including one to defeat the Panthers two years later to claim his second Lombardi trophy. After he earned his third, there was a wide-spread belief that he would pass both Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw and eventually earn five or more total rings.

Well, Brady’s been stuck on three. He’s no longer clutch; in fact, he often melts down in the fourth quarters of big matchups. He seems to really care about some games – especially those involving Tim Tebow – but then he’s so lackadaisical in others.

So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona. Including this one…

Check out the newest chapter of the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: It’s a shame Gus Bradley didn’t start Blake Bortles sooner. The Jaguars could’ve easily beaten the Eagles and been way more competitive at Washington. It’s conceivable that they would be 2-2 heading into this contest with a chance to emerge tied for first place in the division with a victory. Why Bradley intentionally sabotaged this season, I have no idea.

Bortles was terrific in his first career start last week. He had a couple of interceptions, but played well overall despite being on the road against one of the top teams in the NFL. He’ll have an easier challenge this Sunday, as the Steelers sport a defense missing several key starters, including star rookie linebacker Ryan Shazier and corner Ike Taylor. Mike Glennon was able to look competent as a result, and the young quarterback was even able to orchestrate a game-winning drive to the disbelief of Dick LeBeau, who looked befuddled after the game concluded.

Bortles is much better than Glennon, plus he’ll be playing at home, so I expect a quality performance from him. It’ll help that he won’t have to deal with much pressure for a change. His offensive line is garbage, but it should be able to handle Pittsburgh’s lacking pass rush for the most part.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Speaking of pass rushes, the Steelers couldn’t block the Buccaneers for most of this past Sunday afternoon, as Ben Roethlisberger took a whopping five sacks, one of which led to a fumble and ensuing touchdown. Roethlisberger tends to do a good job of eluding defenders in the pocket, so a sack total of five is a high amount.

The Jaguars may come close to matching that figure. They pinned down Philip Rivers three times in Sunday’s loss, as Sen’Derrick Marks was a force the Chargers simply couldn’t deal with. Pittsburgh failed to block Gerald McCoy, so it could have similar issues with Marks.

Having said that, the Steelers will move the chains often because the rest of Jacksonville’s defense is crap. The linebackers are terrible, and the secondary is even worse. Roethlisberger has enough talent around him, both at the receiving position and in the backfield, to not post a decent amount of points.

RECAP: I think this has a strong chance of being an upset. I’m dead serious. The Steelers have historically been a terrible road favorite, while the Jaguars are much better with Bortles at the helm. They’ll definitely give Pittsburgh all it can handle.

If I hadn’t lost so much money on the Jaguars over the past few seasons, this would be a big play for me. There’s so much line value with Jacksonville. Think about it this way: The Jaguars were +12.5 at San Diego. This spread (+6.5) would be +12.5 in Pittsburgh. That’s telling us the Steelers are just as good as the Chargers, which isn’t even close. My projected line for this game was Steelers -1, so I just have to wager half a unit on Jacksonville solely out of principle.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s professional money pouring in on the Jaguars, while the public is pounding Pittsburgh. As I wrote earlier, if Jacksonville hadn’t cost me so much money, I’d have them as a high wager.

SUNDAY NOTES: Once again, the sharps love the Jaguars. I’d be betting on them too if they hadn’t cost me so much.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

There’s a large amount of action on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 80% 22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

Steelers are 13-24 ATS as road favorites since 2007.

Jaguars are 18-45 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Steelers -6.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 5 NFL Pick: Jaguars 27, Steelers 24
Jaguars +6 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Over 47.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Steelers 17, Jaguars 9

Week 5 NFL Picks – Late Games
Arizona�at�Denver, NY Jets�at�San Diego, Kansas City�at�San Francisco, Cincinnati�at�New England, Seattle�at�Washington

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 5 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)