NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)

NFL Picks (2014): 35-40-1 (-$290)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 6, 5:25 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 5 NFL Picks – Early Games

Arizona Cardinals (3-0) at Denver Broncos (2-1)
Line: Broncos by 7.5. Total: 47.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Broncos -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -8.5.
Sunday, Oct. 5, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Broncos.

This is a reminder to get your pick in for the Survivor Pool. Of the 3,289 entries that began the year, only 906 remain. The Steelers knocked the most people out, as 129 entries had them.

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Carson Palmer told the media earlier this week that the nerve in shoulder hasn’t progressed according to plan. Thus, it’s sounding like Arizona will go with Drew Stanton over the banged-up Palmer in this matchup. Stanton performed well in his Week 3 victory over the 49ers, but things could be much different this time around.

Winning at home is one thing – especially when the opponent is more than happy to keep drives alive with stupid penalties. Pulling out a victory on the road in a hostile environment like Denver will be much more challenging. Stanton struggled at the Meadowlands, for crying out loud, so how will he win in Denver, where he’ll have to combat a tough defense with a solid secondary?

The Cardinals will want to establish Andre Ellington on the ground, but that’ll be difficult considering Denver is so stout against the run. The Broncos rank sixth in terms of defensive YPC (3.41), thanks to Von Miller and Terrance Knighton, and there’s no reason to believe that they’ll suddenly have any sort of issues with Arizona’s back.

DENVER OFFENSE: Peyton Manning also has a tough matchup. The Cardinals have a stellar secondary, headlined by their two Pro Bowl corners, Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie. The latter missed some action with a knee injury, but he’s expected to suit up in this contest. Manning can’t be too happy about that.

Manning also can’t be pleased that he likely won’t have the support of a strong running game. Montee Ball, who was a bit sluggish prior to the bye, will have to deal with the NFL’s top ground defense in terms of YPC (2.58). Arizona’s defense is surrendering just 47.3 rushing yards per game, which is pretty remarkable considering that they’ve dealt with Frank Gore and Rashad Jennings, both of whom had strong performances a week after battling Arizona.

Something the Cardinals don’t do well, however, is get after the quarterback. Excluding Calais Campbell, the team doesn’t have a single consistent pass-rusher. That’s not good news considering the matchup. Beating Manning and signal-callers of his ilk requires getting to them without blitzing very often. Arizona won’t be able to do that.

RECAP: I like the Broncos for a few units. Here are some reasons:

1. The Cardinals are a paper 3-0. Two of their victories came at home, where they are so much better, and one of them happened because the 49ers self-destructed with countless penalties. The other victory was a slim win over the Giants. Nevertheless, Arizona is being overrated by the public because of its record.

2. Both teams are coming off byes, but the Broncos have the major edge in that dynamic. The reason is because they lost prior to their week off. They’ve had two weeks to stew about their most recent loss, so they’ll be ready to come out strong. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have had two weeks to hear about how great they are after their victory over San Francisco.

3. Manning has been clutch as a large home favorite with the Broncos. He’s 10-5 against the spread in the regular season when laying a touchdown or more with his second team. Take out two spread losses versus the Chargers, whom he’s had issues with, and he’s 10-3 ATS in this situation.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Chg91 from the forums brought up a good point about Tom Moore knowing how to defend Peyton Manning. But how do you game plan against one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL? It’s not like he’s Alex Smith, or anything. Manning is on an 8-0 ATS streak off a bye.

SUNDAY NOTES: The Broncos are one of the original touchdown favorites that didn’t see the spread drop against them. There’s not much sharp support for the Cardinals, as Manning is usually clutch off a bye.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Both teams are coming off a bye and don’t have anything to look forward to.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
Slight lean on the host.

Percentage of money on Denver: 61% (31,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Broncos -7.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: .

Week 5 NFL Pick: Broncos 30, Cardinals 16
Broncos -7.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 47.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Broncos 41, Cardinals 20

Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-2)
Line: 49ers by 5. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : 49ers -7.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: 49ers -6.
Sunday, Oct. 5, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: 49ers.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 7! Emmitt and his friends explore the mysterious island they’re stranded on in hopes of finding a way off of it.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers should have won by 20 points last week. They completely dominated the game, limiting the Eagles to just two possessions across midfield. However, stupid mistakes by Colin Kaepernick and some of the other players nearly cost them a much-needed victory.

Will the errors continue? Considering they’ve been prevalent for three weeks now, there’s no reason to believe they’ll just disappear. Untimely penalties and bad turnovers will once again haunt the 49ers, who will actually have to battle a competitive defense this week. Kaepernick got lucky last week, as the Eagles were so inept that they couldn’t do anything about a pass that traveled 50 miles across the quarterback’s body, but the Chiefs won’t be nearly the same type of push-over.

Kansas City will make things difficult for Kaepernick with its pass rush. The team’s missing Derrick Johnson and Mike DeVito, but it can still get after the opposing quarterback with Tamba Hali, Justin Houston and Dontari Poe. The 49ers haven’t been able to block very well this year, as the Eagles even got some pressure on Kaepernick. The Chiefs will get even more heat on him.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Coaches tend to do very well against their old quarterbacks. Andy Reid actually had that luxury last year when his team went into Philadelphia on a Thursday night and put the clamps on QBDK. That dynamic is prevalent in this contest, of course, as Jim Harbaugh used to coach Alex Smith.

No one knows Smith’s weaknesses more than Harbaugh. He’ll help his defensive coaches design a perfect game plan to exploit them. He has the personnel to do that too. As mentioned, the defense limited the Eagles to just two trips across midfield last week, and it won’t have to worry about the same type of offensive talent that the Eagles possess. Save for Travis Kelce, Alex Smith’s non-backfield weapons are pretty limited.

Of course, the backfield is a major edge for the Chiefs. Jamaal Charles is healthy again, and it showed when he ran circles around Bill Belichick’s defense Monday night. He’ll have a much bigger challenge in this game, however, as the 49ers have limited their previous three opponents to an average of 35.3 rushing yards per contest.

RECAP: My Las Vegas Hilton Supercontest partner Matvei asked me what I thought about this game in a conversation we had yesterday. My answer:

I like Harbaugh vs. Alex Smith but don’t like Harbaugh vs. his own team.

I don’t know what to make of this game. If I were confident the 49ers wouldn’t screw up, I’d take them to cover, but they can’t seem to stop shooting themselves in the foot. Andy Reid has his team disciplined, and he seems to usually cover as a larger underdog, so I’m picking the Chiefs, albeit reluctantly.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nothing has changed. I have no feel for this game.

SUNDAY NOTES: As with the Browns-Titans, I have no read on this game. The sharps have bet the Chiefs down.

The Psychology. Edge: Unknown.
Not sure what the Alex Smith implications will be. The 49ers can’t afford to lose to him, but Smith’s teammates will want to get revenge for him.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 54% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Chiefs are 27-14 ATS in October since 2002.

49ers are 14-8 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+ under Jim Harbaugh.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 5 NFL Pick: 49ers 20, Chiefs 17
Chiefs +5 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
49ers 22, Chiefs 17

New York Jets (1-3) at San Diego Chargers (3-1)
Line: Chargers by 6. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Chargers -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chargers -8.5.
Sunday, Oct. 5, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Chargers.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is about my troubles at Saladworks, Panera Bread and Sbarro.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Chargers didn’t have their best opening half last week, as the Jaguars gave them some issues early on. However, Mike McCoy, being one of the top coaches in the NFL, was able to make the proper adjustments. What he did was utilize rookie running back Branden Oliver more frequently. Oliver turned out to be much more effective than the lethargic Donald Brown. His presence made the Jaguars’ pass rush think twice, which in turn allowed Philip Rivers to torch Jacksonville’s rotten secondary.

Rivers will have his opportunity against another putrid defensive backfield. The Jets can’t cover anyone, as the front office did a horrendous job of adding talent to the defensive backfield this offseason. I just can’t see them doing anything against Rivers and all of his weapons.

The one chance the Jets have on this side of the ball is to put heavy pressure on Rivers. Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson can certainly do that, especially given that San Diego won’t be able to run the ball, but the Jets lack a consistent tertiary pass-rusher. Quinton Coples was supposed to be that guy, but save for a couple of plays that he made against the Packers, he’s been mostly quiet this year.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets wish they had a quarterback half as talented as Rivers. Instead, they’re stuck with Geno Smith, who has been dreadful since halftime of the Green Bay game. He was so bad against the Lions that the fans were chanting, “We want Vick! We want Vick!” What they don’t realize is that QBDK is content not doing anything besides cashing checks. He has no desire to start, so the Jets might as well ride it out with Smith.

Smith will have to lead the offense without a strong rushing attack supporting him. The Chargers are excellent versus the run, as no team has gained more than 78 yards on them in any game this year. It’s not like the Jets have the stellar running backs to take advantage of this anyway. Chris Johnson is a bum, while Chris Ivory displayed some hands of stone last week with a couple of drops.

It would be difficult for Smith to throw on San Diego even if he did have some ground support. San Diego has assembled a strong secondary, which includes Pro Bowler Eric Weddle and Brandon Flowers, who has performed extremely well thus far after sputtering in Bob Sutton’s system last year. Smith’s mediocre weapons will have issues getting open.

RECAP: This will be an instance in which I ignore my NFL.com Power Ranking analysis. It says to bet the Jets because they moved down so much, and the sharps are taking the visitor, but I’m not going against McCoy, who always has his team fully prepared. McCoy is 15-6 against the spread thus far, and there’s no way I’m going to miss out on that.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s professional money on the Jets, and I can’t understand why. The Chargers are much better, and it’s not like they’re in a bad spot. By the way, found a horrible, yet hilarious stat for Geno Smith: Throughout his career, on any play with 10 or more yards to go, he has 3 touchdowns and 20 interceptions. With Eric Decker limited or out, Smith will probably struggle again.

SUNDAY NOTES: This is the one game where I completely disagree with the sharps. Professional money has moved this spread down. The Chargers are just so much better than the Jets. Perhaps this is a blind spot for the pros, as they lost betting the Jets and fading the Chargers last week.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

A decent lean on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 65% (37,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Chargers -7.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 5 NFL Pick: Chargers 26, Jets 16
Chargers -6 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chargers 31, Jets 0

Cincinnati Bengals (3-0) at New England Patriots (2-2)
Line: Bengals by 3. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Patriots -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -3.
Sunday, Oct. 5, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: Bengals.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Is Tom Brady done? That’s what everyone’s asking this week. I listed Brady in my top 10 most overrated NFL players list during the summer, but I didn’t think he’d be this bad. His completion percentage is poor (59.1), but his YPA is the worst part. It’s just 5.8, which is Brodie Croyle level of ineptitude.

Of course, Brady is not as bad as Croyle. His supporting cast sucks. His offensive line can’t block whatsoever, while his receivers can’t get open. You have to wonder what Bill Belichick could possibly be thinking; he traded Logan Mankins away for nothing and refuses to utilize his young, talented wideouts. They’re not even active on game day. It’s absurd.

Having said that, Brady may actually have time in the pocket for a change in this contest. The Bengals haven’t gotten much pressure on the quarterback thus far, as Geno Atkins has not played like his old self. Michael Johnson is missed as well. Cincinnati also doesn’t have the best rush defense – 4.58 yards per carry allowed – so with a running game going, Brady may actually have success moving the chains for once.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Patriots’ defense was just as pedestrian as the offense Monday night, but I’ll chalk that up as a fluke. The team came into the contest ranked fourth in overall defensive efficiency. The problem was that the New England players had issues staying on their feet. It was amazing how many times they slipped on the grass. This allowed the Chiefs to pick up big gains and keep drives alive.

I doubt the Patriots will have similar issues on their field. They will have to deal with some talented players in A.J. Green and Giovani Bernard, but the Bengals could have their own problems, particularly in the red zone. Cincinnati does not have a quality red-zone offense, as it had trouble scoring deep in enemy territory against the Ravens, Falcons and Titans. They’ve had to resort to trick plays like Mohamed Sanu passes to score.

I don’t think the Bengals will be as fancy in this contest. It’s a big game, and Marvin Lewis has had a tendency to be more conservative in those. If that happens to be the case again, I’m sure we’ll see Andy Dalton sputter once again inside the opposing 20.

RECAP: The Patriots are my top play of the week. I’m picking them for five units. Here are five reasons, one for each unit:

1. I mentioned earlier that there’s a great amount of spread value in this game. The Patriots were -3 prior to Week 4, yet they’re +1.5 now. There’s no reason this line should have moved by 4.5 points because of one result.

2. Speaking of the spread, it makes very little sense to me. Think about it this way: Bengals -1.5 at New England would translate to Bengals -7.5 if this game were in Cincinnati. The Bengals were -7 over the Titans, so what this is telling us is that the Titans are half a point better than the Patriots. That defies logic.

3. There’s a ridiculous amount of action on the Bengals. Because it’s a Sunday night game, everyone will either be doubling up or trying to win back their losses by wagering on Cincinnati. The sportsbooks have lost money the past two weeks, so this could be their opportunity to win some cash back.

4. The Bengals are a paper 3-0. The aforementioned Elliot Harrison has them as his No. 1 team in the NFL, which is a joke. Cincinnati is a solid squad, but victories over two teams heading into Thursday affairs and the Titans shouldn’t impress anyone.

5. Brady in F-U mode. I know he’s not the same quarterback, but I still love him in this spot. He’s an underdog and happens to be coming off a loss. Everyone on TV has said that he and his team are done. People on Twitter during the Monday night loss were wondering if the Bills or Dolphins could take the AFC East. Brady and Belichick feed on this type of stuff.

FRIDAY UPDATE: The sharps have bet the Patriots, which is why the line has moved from +1.5 to pick in most places. There are still some +1s out there as well as a +2 at Bovada. I’m not locking in anything yet.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Notice how the spread moved from +2 to pick (in most places) the past couple of days? That’s pro money on the Patriots, who are still 13th in the Vegas sharps’ power rankings. I still feel very strongly about New England. You can still get them at +1.5 on Bovada.

SUNDAY NOTES: Still waiting on Patriots +3. Grab it if you can get it. Vegas is going to lose a ton of money if the Bengals cover.

UPDATE: Bovada is now offering Patriots at +3. I’m going to pounce on it.

ANOTHER UPDATE: This spread has moved to +2.5 in most places, though you can still get it for +3 at -120 on Bovada. I’d prefer +3 -120 over +2.5, as this game could easily fall on three. I’d probably only go with four units if I had to lay -120 juice though.

The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.

Tom Brady and the Patriots will be in “F-U mode” following the Monday night loss, and they also have last year’s loss to avenge.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

No surprise that all of the money is on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 65% (37,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Bengals are 24-13 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Marvin Lewis is 6-10 ATS in nationally televised regular-season games.

Tom Brady is 162-56 as a starter (123-90 ATS).

Tom Brady is 31-14 ATS off a loss (4-8 ATS as -7 or more).

Tom Brady is 23-10 ATS off a loss since 2003 (4-7 ATS as -7 or more).

Tom Brady is 19-10 ATS as an underdog since 2003.

Bill Belichick is 20-9 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: .

Week 5 NFL Pick: Patriots 34, Bengals 24
Patriots +3 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Over 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 43, Bengals 17

Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at Washington Redskins (1-3)
Line: Seahawks by 7. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Seahawks -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -6.
Monday, Oct. 6, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, complete morons like Ron Zappolo, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the state of Washington where the Redskins will battle the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. The… guys, wait, hold on, my beeper’s going off. Uh oh, it’s mother. She needs me to draw her a bubble bath, and if I’m not home in time, I’m going to be grounded. I don’t want to be grounded because then I’m not allowed to wear my Eagles jersey to bed. Emmitt, take over for me, will ya?

Emmitt: Merle, I am not play by play analysis… analyze… anal… an… analyizisinged. But we have another guy here who can do these thing. His name… uhh… Mike.

Zappolo: Thanks, Mike! Today’s game between the Washington Wizards and the Seattle Supersonics should be a good one! Shawn Kemp is a rookie leading the strong Seattle backcourt with Gary Payton Manning, and then there’s the Washington Redskins, led by Joe Theismann. What a sharp rookie. He was a great pick for the Washington Nationals!

Fouts: You know the crazy thing about all of this is? Ron Zappolo just mentioned all four major sports in one sentence. He first discussed basketball. That’s the sports where you shoot the ball into the basket. Hence, basketball. One would think it would be called ballbasket because you have to have the ball to put it into the basket, but that’s a debate for another time. Then, he talked about football. They call the sport football because the ball is a foot long. It’s also shaped like a foot. And people use their feet sometimes to kick the ball or put on shoes. Then, there’s baseball. There are three bases in baseball. There’s also home plate, which is not actually a plate you eat off of. Then there’s hockey. That sport is called hockey because the word “hock” in French means “ice.” In English, the word “ice” means “cold,” and the word “cold” means something that’s not warm.

Zappolo: Speaking of warm, it must be a thousand degrees in here. Would someone grab me a pod cooling generator capsule that will be invented in 2019 so I can lower my body temperature by two degrees?

Millen: This gives me a great idea, Ronny. What if there was something you could stick into your backside to make you last longer when someone’s riding you all night long like a young stallion? Now, don’t get me wrong, I’m always primed for an encounter with a 100-percent USDA Man, but other people have dysfunctions, and that’s not their fault. Sometimes they can’t ride the stallion long enough, and sometimes they’re never up for riding the stallion in the first place. If you attached this pod cooling generator capsule to the penetrating kielbasa, perhaps your performance would improve.

Tollefson: Who said anything about my performance needing to improve!? My performance is just fine, you a**hole! Maybe it’s your performance that needs to improve!

Millen: Oh, not worries for me, Tolly. Look at my pants right now. I’m geared up and ready to ride a young stallion. Speaking of young stallions, Herm Edwards, have you increased your USDA Man percentage recently? You’re looking like more of a young stallion with each passing day!

Edwards: DON’T WANT TO BE A YOUNG STALLION! DON’T WANT TO BE AN OLD STALLION! DON’T WANT TO BE A STALLION THAT’S NEITHER OLD NOR YOUNG! DON’T WANT TO DO IT! CAN’T DO IT! WON’T DO IT! WILL NOT DO IT! WON’T EVER DO IT! NEVER EVER DO IT! NOT EVER! NOT TONIGHT! NOT YESTERDAY! NOT TOMORROW! THOUGH YOU NEVER KNOW WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN TOMORROw! NO ONE KNOWS! NOT ONE PERSON! WELL EXCEPT FOR FORTUNE TELLERS! THEY KNOW BECAUSE THEY HAVE A CRYSTAL BALL! THEIR BALL IS CRYSTAL! THAT’S HOW THEY CAN SEE! IT HAS TO BE A CRYSTAL BALL! MUST BE A CRYSTAL BALL! CAN ONLY BE A CRYSTAL BALL! NOT A BOWLING BALL! NOT A BASKETBALL! NOT A CANNONBALL! THERE ARE TWO TYPES OF CANNONBALLS! THE ONES YOU SHOOT! THE ONE YOU DO WHEN YOU JUMP IN THE POOL! IT’S NOT EITHER! IT’S NOT THE FIRST! IT’S NOT THE SECOND! IT’S NOT THE THIRD! WAIT, IS THERE A THIRD!? HOW MANY ARE THERE!? WHAT OF HOW MANY ARE WHAT!? I FORGOT WHAT I’M TALKING ABOUT! HERM FORGOT WHAT HE’S TALKING ABOUT! HERM… uhh…

Reilly: I forgot my beeper, and I still see that Herm is being a total f***ing idiot even in my absence! We’ll be back after this!

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Kirk Cousins was terrible in that Thursday night blowout loss. He wasn’t so bad in the opening half, but he seemed to lose confidence with each interception following intermission. By the end of the game, Cousins looked like a defeated man on the bench.

It would be nice for Cousins if he had another easy matchup like he enjoyed against the Jaguars or Eagles, but unfortunately for him, the Seahawks are coming to town. Seattle, well rested off a bye, will smother Cousins’ receivers with its stalwart secondary. Meanwhile, the Seahawks’ strong pass rush will take advantage of Washington’s poor blockers and wreak havoc upon Cousins in the backfield.

Basically, it’s going to be a long night for Cousins, and it won’t help matters that his team won’t be able to establish any sort of rushing attack. The Seahawks are excellent versus the run, so they won’t have any trouble putting the clamps on Alfred Morris and Roy Helu.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The only way the Redskins can keep this game competitive is if they apply heavy pressure on Russell Wilson and luck into some turnovers as a result. They have the personnel to do this with Jason Hatcher, Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan, but the pass rush failed to accomplish anything in the loss to the Giants, so it’s no guarantee that the three players will be able to rally the team to victory.

Besides, the rest of Washington’s stop unit sucks. The secondary is in shambles now that DeAngelo Hall is out for the year. Even if Wilson is under duress throughout the evening, he’ll still find open receivers downfield.

The Redskins won’t even be able to fully concentrate on containing Wilson because Marshawn Lynch is such a threat coming out of the backfield. Washington looked helpless trying to stop the run Thursday night, and that was against Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams. Trying to stop Lynch is a completely different story.

RECAP: The Seahawks aren’t as good on the road, but they still seem like the right side. They’re a much better team coming off a bye, and they’ll have Circadian rhythms on their side. Unfortunately, we can’t really bet on them because of the Clete Blakeman Rule, which states that highly bet favorites should be avoided on Sunday or Monday night. Corrupt officials like Blakeman have a hand in fixing games of that sort of nature, and Vegasmay need this one.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Redskins +7, but the books refuse to move off that number because they know they’ll get a flood of public money (and some sharp action) on Seahawks -6.5. I do not agree with the professional bettors in this instance, however. The Seahawks are the best team in the NFL, and they’re coming off a bye, so they’ll be focused. They’ll also have Circadian rhythms on their side. I don’t want to bet on them because shady things happen on Sunday and Monday night games when a highly bet team is involved, but I still think Seattle’s the right choice.

The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.
Will the Seahawks look past the Redskins with the Cowboys coming up? Not sure.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

No surprise that the public is on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 78% (61,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

Seahawks are 21-33 ATS on the road since 2006 if they’re not coming off an away loss.

Opening Line: Seahawks -7.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 5 NFL Pick: Seahawks 24, Redskins 10
Seahawks -7 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 27, Redskins 17

Week 5 NFL Picks – Early Games
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Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Browns +7.5, Patriots +7.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100

Moneyline Underdog: Rams +230 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline Underdog: Falcons +175 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
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2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)