NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 17, 2013

NFL Picks (Preseason 2013): 10-6 (+$720)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2013): 4-11-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2013): 6-10 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2013): 9-6-1 (+$20)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2013): 11-4 (+$870)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2013): 8-6 (+$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2013): 4-11 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2013): 6-9 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2013): 8-5 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2013): 5-8 (-$280)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2013): 9-4-1 (-$110)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2013): 5-7-3 (-$480)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2013): 9-5 (+$1,660)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2013): 10-6 (+$850)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2013): 7-9 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2013): 10-6 (-$190)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2013): 6-9-1 (-$240)

NFL Picks (2013): 127-122-5 (+$2,760)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 29, 11:35 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 17 NFL Picks – Late Games

Carolina Panthers (11-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-11)
Line: Panthers by 6. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Panthers -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 16): Panthers -4.5.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 17 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Panthers.

WEEK 16 RECAP: Thanks to my December NFL Pick of the Month (Patriots +2.5), I had a winning Sunday despite posting an overall losing record (6-8-1, +$200). Unfortunately, I finished in the red because the 49ers couldn’t cover on Monday night. Not factoring in Atlanta’s thirst for playoff revenge was a big mistake on my part. The 49ers also may have been distracted by all of the ESPN Candlestick hoopla. F*** you, ESPN.

I could’ve enjoyed a much better week had I not made any late changes. I added a unit to Texans +10, which looked like it would work out until the fourth quarter. I dropped a unit off the Cardinals. I changed my zero-unit selection from Pittsburgh to Green Bay. And, to top it off, I made Chicago a two-unit pick once the Packers lost. I figured the Eagles wouldn’t even show up for that Sunday night game, but I was completely wrong. The sharps were as well (per Chad Millman), so I don’t feel too bad.

TEAMS IN MUST-WIN SITUATIONS: This week, I’ll be looking at teams in must-win situations in the final week of the season. Conventional wisdom says these teams are triumphant because they absolutely have to be victorious if they want to reach the playoffs. However, that has not been the case whatsoever.

I looked back in my pick archives to determine which teams were in Week 17 must-win situations since 2007, so I could see how frequently they covered the spread. The results may surprise many (all records against the spread):

Teams in Week 17 Must-Win Situations Since 2007 (ATS):

Home favorites: 7-9
Road favorites: 3-6

Home underdogs: 2-0
Road underdogs: 3-6

Overall Record: 15-21

Excluding home underdogs, teams that have to win are 13-21 ATS in the past six seasons. That’s pretty amazing, but it makes sense. If a team has to win in the final week of the season, chances are it’s not very good in the first place.

Here’s a list of teams in must-win situations this week:

Home Favorites:
Bears (vs. Packers)
Steelers (vs. Browns)
Dolphins (vs. Jets)
Saints (vs. Buccaneers)
Chargers (vs. Chiefs)

Road Favorites:
Eagles (at Cowboys)

Home Underdogs:
Cardinals (vs. 49ers)
Cowboys (vs. Eagles)

Road Underdogs:
Packers (at Bears)
Ravens (at Bengals)

As with any trend or situation, this should not be bet or faded blindly. If a hot team is legitimately coming on, don’t be afraid to wager on them. The same goes if a squad is playing an opponent resting all of its starters. The latter dynamic obviously applies to Chargers-Chiefs.

POISONOUS TEAMS: I’ve vowed to avoid the following poisonous teams that were responsible for many of my two- and three-unit losses:

Group 1 (poisonous garbage):
Raiders
Texans
Jaguars (no more Cecil Shorts)

Group 2 (poisonous quitters):
Redskins
Titans
Falcons
Browns
Giants

Despite seeing sharp money, both the Texans and Raiders failed to cover. The Jaguars pushed. In the second list, both Washington and New York played tough as underdogs. The Redskins’ high effort was very predictable because they hate the Cowboys. Meanwhile, I didn’t think the Giants would show up, but they managed to knock off the hapless Lions.

I just added the Browns to this list, by the way. I don’t know why I didn’t recognize them as a poisonous quitter sooner.

SUPER SITUATIONS: My Las Vegas Hilton Supercontest partner Matvei and I also talked about some situations that almost always win:

Seahawks at home
Saints at home
Packers at home (needs Aaron Rodgers)
Jim Harbaugh anywhere (unless he’s playing another top team, i.e. Colts or Seahawks)
Tom Brady off a loss as long as he’s not favored by a lot

Those situations have gone 13-3 against the spread since Week 8, with the Seahawks losing (though that game didn’t matter much) and New England covering for me. The 49ers are pending.

BERMUDA TRIANGLE: Matvei and I also discussed something called the Bermuda Triangle. This originated with the Cardinals, who inexplicably cover at home against all non-elite teams. Very weird things happen in these games that can’t be explained. Thus, Bermuda Triangle. Here are Bermuda Triangle situations:

Bet the Cardinals at home as a dog or small favorite unless they’re playing an elite team.
Fade the Ravens as a road favorite.
Fade the Steelers as a big home favorite or road favorite.
Fade the Cowboys as a very large home favorite.
Bet the Bills at home

These are 4-1 against the spread the past four weeks, thanks to the Bills upsetting the Dolphins.

Week 17 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers had issues moving the chains all afternoon against the Saints last week. In fact, they failed to convert a third down throughout the entire game. But Cam Newton came through in the clutch when it mattered most, hitting three big passes to lead his team to victory, all while screwing me out of prize money in the Las Vegas Hilton Supercontest. If anyone has any free time, please calculate how much cash Ted Ginn has cost me over the years, either betting on or against him. The amount might be the equivalent of the gross national product of a small country.

The Saints have a tough defense, so Newton will have a much easier time against the Falcons, who have never recovered on this side of the ball because of so many injuries. Atlanta actually watched another one of its players go down this past week, as stout run-stuffer Corey Peters tore his Achilles on Monday night. The Falcons were already porous against the run, so DeAngelo Williams will have plenty of room to burst through.

This will set up play-action and short-yardage opportunities for Newton, who won’t really need them. It won’t hurt though, as Steve Smith is unlikely to play. Carolina’s offense sputtered without Smith last week, but it’ll have an entire week to adjust. Besides, it’s not like the Falcons are anywhere near as good defensively as the Saints.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Matt Ryan has been dinking and dunking all year because his offensive line hasn’t been able to protect very well. He did exactly that in the first half of the San Francisco contest, but he grew some confidence after intermission and began firing some downfield shots toward Roddy White, who had a monstrous outing.

Things very well could be different this Sunday, however. The 49ers don’t have much of a pass rush, so they didn’t really take advantage of Atlanta’s liability up front. The Panthers will be able to do that though. They have the second-most sacks in the NFL (51), behind only Buffalo’s 55. They put immense pressure on Drew Brees and were able to rattle him. If they got to Brees, you can bet that they’ll make life extremely difficult for Ryan.

With that in mind, Atlanta must establish some sort of ground attack. It could have some success in that regard despite conventional thinking. The Panthers are actually just 25th against the rush in terms of YPC (4.57) over the past month, which is quite strange.

RECAP: I’m at a loss as to what Atlanta’s mentality will be in this game. The team just tried to avenge its NFC Championship loss against the 49ers, so it made out that Monday night affair to be its Super Bowl. As a result, the team could be flat. Then again, the Falcons a big home dog against an NFC South team… but I don’t think Atlanta-Carolina is that fierce of a rivalry, and if the Falcons beat the Panthers, the more-hated Saints would win the NFC South. So, I’m not sure what to do here.

If the Falcons bring lots of energy to this game, I like their chances of beating the spread; after all, they’ve covered four of their previous five games. But then again, they could always quit. I’m going to think about this and try to find out what sort of mentality the Falcons have heading into this matchup. If I hear/learn/think of something positive, I may make this a selection of 1-2 units. Stay tuned.

Again, Week 17 NFL Picks will be posted all day. I’ll announce via Twitter @walterfootball when each selection is posted.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are taking the Falcons. I still think they’re the right side, but I haven’t been convinced that they’ll be somewhat flat off their loss to San Francisco. Some people have brought up the fact that Tony Gonzalez is likely playing in his final game, but I don’t know if that’ll be enough. Also consider that Bill Simmons made the Falcons one of his picks in the Supercontest. Simmons has been awful this year because he’s not paying attention to football, and if you were to fade his selections, you’d be in the top five of the SuperContest.

SUNDAY NOTES: Some more on Gonzalez: There’s a celebration planned for him in this game, but the ESPN sideline reporter noted that Roddy White believes Gonzalez will return next year. In other words, I don’t think this is much of an edge. Atlanta still seems like the right side, but I’m not going to bet on this game. It’s also worth noting that one of the top seven bookies in the Bookie Battle I wrote about last week picked Carolina as the top selection.

The Psychology. Edge: TBA.
The Panthers are coming off an emotional win against the Saints. It’s unknown what sort of mentality the Falcons will be in.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

Money on the Panthers, but not as much as you’d think.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 65% (24,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

History: Falcons have won 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Mike Smith is 4-1 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Matt Ryan is 27-18 ATS at home.

Falcons are 17-4 ATS following a loss of 6+ in the previous 21 instances.

Mike Smith is 4-0 ATS following Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Panthers -7.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Panthers 27, Falcons 23
Falcons +6 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Panthers 21, Falcons 20

Houston Texans (2-13) at Tennessee Titans (5-10)
Line: Titans by 7. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Titans -5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 16): Titans -6.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 17 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Titans.

VEGAS RECAP: There were five heavily bet teams last week. Only two of them covered (Bengals, Broncos), but Denver counts twice because there was so much action on that team. The public lost with the Dolphins, Cowboys and Chiefs.

With that in mind, it was a pretty even week for the books. Christmas is over, and there aren’t any people killing each other for video game consoles anymore, so Vegas doesn’t have to worry about giving money back to the public going forward. The degenerates who lost money and gave their kids dirty socks for Christmas will have to wait until next year.

I’ll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I’ll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Case Keenum is considered “day to day,” so there’s much intrigue as to whom Wade Phillips will give the nod to. Will it be Keenum, who can’t process information quickly in the pocket, or will it be the Gary Kubiak-less Matt Schaub, who looks like a broken man because of all of the heckling and death threats?

The Titans play the pass fairly well, thanks to two solid cornerbacks and Jurrell Casey providing a great push in the interior. Houston’s offensive line has surrendered 10 sacks in its previous three games, so Schaub/Keenum could see a good amount of pressure again.

Tennessee is weakest against the run, but Houston no longer has the horses to take advantage of that. Both Arian Foster and Ben Tate are out for the year. Even Dennis Johnson is hurt. That leaves someone named Jonathan Grimes to shoulder most of the workload. Grimes has seven career carries, so no one should expect him to produce much against the Titans.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: This is going to be the final game for many players on this team. Chris Johnson, for instance, will almost certainly be released. However, if the lame-duck coaching staff decides to give him a healthy workload, he could go out with a bang. The Texans, who have quit in many games this year, are one of the league’s worst teams against the rush. Houston could once again mail it in, which would be great news for the man formerly known as CJ2K.

At least one of the offensive tackles will also say goodbye; most likely David Stewart. He’ll also be able to put together a solid game for his resume because the Texans’ poor pass rush has accumulated just four sacks in its previous four games. That’s just pathetic.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, as a result, will have all the time in the world to find his receivers downfield. Brice McCain has been one of the worst starting cornerbacks in football this year, so Fitzpatrick will have plenty of success targeting him.

RECAP: The Texans legitimately tried hard against the Broncos last week. It was a 16-13 affair in the fourth quarter until a flurry of Peyton Manning touchdowns made it a blowout. Given that they came up short in a high-effort affair, they could be flat against Tennessee. The Titans seem like the right side as a consequence, but then again, they could also mail it in because most of the coaches will be fired on Monday.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is a worthless game that both the public and sharps are torn on. Pass.

SUNDAY NOTES: I still have nothing to add here. I don’t see how anyone’s betting this game.

The Psychology. Edge: Titans.

Though the score didn’t indicate it, the Texans played very tough against the Broncos. They’ll be deflated, but the Titans haven’t looked right either.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 57% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Texans have won the last 3 meetings.

Texans are 36-24 ATS after two or more consecutive losses.

Opening Line: Titans -6.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Possible showers, 56 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Titans 30, Texans 17
Titans -7 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Titans 16, Texans 10

Cleveland Browns (4-11) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8)
Line: Steelers by 7.5. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Steelers -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 16): Steelers -4.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 17 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

HATE MAIL: Another week, another stack of hate mails. These are from the comment boards:

Walt You dumb f*ck. f*ck you and our bears pick?

Is that a question? Because I’m not sure I know how to answer it.

Andy Reid. That’s why you don’t like the Chiefs. They aren’t overrated in the least. Even the garbage ESPN power rankings has them like 7th. I think the offense having better stats has a lot to do with Andy Reid’s system finally taking hold. It’s absurd to say they play against bad defenses and that’s it. Well, most of those teams are going to be in the playoffs. What team has an elite defense in the AFC? None. Chiefs have just a good of a chance as any of those teams. It’s not like Manning has an awesome playoff record and he’s playing in Denver, where it’s cold. Good luck with that. lol

Ah yes, Andy Reid’s system really took hold in that seven-point output against the mighty Indianapolis defense.

“‘The Chiefs have the No. 3 offense in the NFL OMG OMG OMG!'” Really, people?” You are criticizing people for stating a fact, really Walt? The Chiefs do have the no. 3 scoring offense in the NFL, that is an indisputable fact that can be confirmed with an espn.com search. It is obvious you are repulsed by hearing anything positive about the Chiefs, even if it can’t be denied

I can’t imagine what life must be like to rely on dumb ESPN facts and stats. I imagine such an existence would involve eating paste and shouting incoherently at one’s self.

This idea of the “F-U Mode” is just nonsense. Let’s just take Walt stat for Brady. Patriots record: 10-4 Brady in “F-U Mode” 4-2 Brady not in “F-U Mode” 6-2. I guess it’s better to bet on him when he’s not upset.

That’s 4-2 against the spread; not straight up. So, he’s 2-6 ATS when he’s “not upset.”

Walt thinks this game won’t mean anything to the eagul??

Is that the appropriate way to spell “Eagles?” Man, I must look like an idiot for getting it wrong all of these years.

You have a nice and comprehensive site. I enjoy it. You are not funny and don’t know much about football.

Uhh… what? A bit of a contradictory post there? Or does this guy have a multi-personality disorder?

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Browns once maintained one of the tougher defenses in the NFL, but injuries have ruined things for them. And by ruined, I mean greatly assisted because Cleveland has established much better draft positioning in the process.

Losing Desmond Bryant was huge. The Browns had a top-five run defense prior to seeing him go down, and in the past month, they’ve been slotted in the bottom five. Le’Veon Bell just looked great while gashing the Packers in the snow at Lambeau, so he should be able to pick up where he left off.

Cleveland’s best defensive player, Joe Haden, has been hurt as well. Haden has actually been on the field in a valiant effort to fight through his hip injury, but he just hasn’t been as effective lately. Haden, who was removed from last week’s contest, could sit out the season finale, which has to make Antonio Brown extremely happy. Brown actually posted a 6-92-1 line against Haden the first time he matched up against the stud corner, so he could have an even better outing this Sunday. Ben Roethlisberger, who went 22-of-34 for 217 yards and two touchdowns in that Week 12 affair, figures to be even better in the rematch.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Steelers have secondary problems of their own. They haven’t been able to cover No. 1 receivers all year (aside from A.J. Green twice, which is inexplicable) because of Ike Taylor’s ineptitude. Taylor used to be a good corner, but he has seen all of his skill quickly diminish. This was very evident the first time he battled the Browns, as Josh Gordon caught a ridiculous 14 passes for 237 yards and a touchdown against him.

Gordon should once again be dominant, but the same can’t be said for the rest of Cleveland’s scoring attack. Jason Campbell is a heartless bum who often looks like he quits when he sails errant throws. Greg Little and Davone Bess are even worse, as they drop multiple passes each week. Also, Jordan Cameron could be out again with a concussion; his absence last week really hurt Cleveland’s red-zone efficiency.

RECAP: The Browns are definitely the right side. The Steelers have to win, which should tell you to fade them, per the situational angle I posted in the first capsule above. They’re also in a revenge spot, and it’s never a bad idea to fade Pittsburgh as a big favorite.

Unfortunately, I can’t wager a single unit on the visitor. The reason is obvious. The Browns are a poisonous team. How many times this year have they seemed like the right side, yet they screwed up somehow and failed to cover? This happened against the Ravens (first meeting), Lions, Bengals (second meeting), Bears and Jets. They’re the definition of a poisonous team. I recommend staying away.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Pittsburgh is Bill Simmons’ second pick, so the Browns automatically have to be considered for a bet. The sharps are on the Browns, but I just can’t stomach betting on them considering how much they’ve disappointed this year in examples I mentioned above.

SUNDAY NOTES: Chad Millman confirmed that the sharps are on the Browns. I still can’t bet them after they’ve crapped the bed in so many similar situations.

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.

This is a must-win game for the Steelers, and they’re not a home underdog.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Tons of money on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 84% (27,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Steelers have won 24 of the last 27 meetings.

Steelers are 28-13 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Ben Roethlisberger is 34-18 ATS vs. the AFC North.

Opening Line: Stee;ers -5.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Rain, 42 degrees. Light wind.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Steelers 26, Browns 22
Browns +7.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Steelers 20, Browns 7

Washington Redskins (3-12) at New York Giants (6-9)
Line: Giants by 3.5. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Giants -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 16): Giants -5.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 17 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Giants.

As you may know, I like to post football-related pictures I find amusing, including Andy Reid memes. I’ve put all of the pictures I’ve posted on my NFL Power Rankings and picks pages together in one section.

Click here to see the Fun NFL Pictures for 2013. This includes all of the Andy Reid memes.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: So maybe this Kirk Cousins isn’t all that he’s cracked up to be. Cousins had an awesome debut against Atlanta, and it seemed like he’d be able to piece together two more great performances to close out the season, considering the terrible defenses he’d be battling. However, he was just 21-of-36 for 197 yards, one touchdown and an interception against Dallas’ putrid stop unit. Many of his passes were behind his intended targets, which is disappointing because he failed to take advantage of his cupcake opponent.

The Giants may have also been considered a cupcake on this side of the ball at one point during the season, but that hasn’t been the case lately. Thanks to a bolstered pass rush – they’ve logged 13 sacks in their previous four games – they’ve improved against aerial attacks. Washington’s offensive line has struggled at times this season, so Justin Tuck could have another great outing.

As for its run defense, New York has been hit or miss in that regard. For instance, the front line was pushed back on every play against the Chargers, yet it stepped up the following week and limited the Seattle running backs to just 81 rushing yards on 25 carries. Joique Bell just managed a 20-91 effort against the Giants, so I suppose it’s all about effort. New York has mailed in some games this year, so if it focuses, it should have success against Alfred Morris.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Eli Manning has struggled for most of the season, but he had his best performance of the year against these Redskins in a Sunday night affair back in Week 13. Manning was a near-perfect 22-of-28 for 235 yards, one touchdown and, of course, an interception. If you’ve been paying attention to how pathetic Washington’s defense has been this season, Manning’s great outing shouldn’t have been a surprise. The Redskins haven’t been able to stop any passing attacks because of an epically brutal secondary.

It’s only been four weeks, so there’s no reason to think that things have changed – especially after a completely hobbled Tony Romo led his team to victory in Washington. Manning figures to light up the Redskins, even without Victor Cruz. Jerrel Jernigan played in Cruz’s usual slot position last week and performed rather well.

Speaking of injured Giants, Andre Brown sustained a concussion in overtime at Detroit. His status is up in the air, which is a big deal because there’s a pretty significant drop-off from Brown to either Peyton Hillis or Michael Cox. Fortunately for the Giants (or more logically, unfortunately for the Giants because of draft positioning), the Redskins don’t defend the run very well.

RECAP: I’m not going to bet this game beyond one unit because either of these teams could mail it in. The Giants, however, are less likely to do so, as they’re coming off a big win at Detroit. Tom Coughlin may convince his players to use this as momentum for next year. The Redskins, meanwhile, could be flat after losing their “Super Bowl” to the Cowboys.

Also, here’s something to consider: There were six head coaches fully expected to be fired heading into Week 17 last year: Mike Mularkey (Jaguars), Romeo Crennel (Chiefs), Andy Reid (Eagles), Chan Gailey (Bills), Norv Turner (Chargers) and Pat Shurmur (Browns). Those teams went 1-5 against the spread, with only Buffalo covering.

One year’s a small sample size, so let’s look at 2011. Raheem Morris (Buccaneers), Steve Spagnuolo (Rams), Romeo Crennel (Chiefs), Hue Jackson (Raiders), Tony Sparano (Dolphins) and Jim Caldwell (Colts) were all let go, as expected. These teams went 2-3-1 ATS, but would’ve been 1-4-1 had St. Louis not backdoor covered as 11-point underdogs with four minutes remaining.

I can keep going back and showing you more examples, but this makes logical sense. Players often have trouble getting up for games if they know their coaches won’t be around. Also, coaches won’t game plan as hard if they’re making future plans and cleaning out their office. Mike Shanahan won’t be back next season, so Washington may not prepare for New York.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is leaning on the Giants, but the sharps don’t have a clear choice. I’m sticking with the Giants because it’s very likely that the Redskins will quit on Mike Shanahan, who could be fired on the trip back to Washington.

SUNDAY NOTES: One of the seven bookies leading the Bookie Battle picked the Giants as the top selection. Tom Coughlin will be back, while Mike Shanahan won’t. This means the Redskins will likely quit.

The Psychology. Edge: Giants.

The Redskins could be flat following their last-second loss to the Cowboys. However, the Giants are coming off a big win.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
Money on the Giants, but not much.

Percentage of money on New York: 63% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Giants have won 11 of the last 15 meetings.

Opening Line: Giants -3.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Rain, 44 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Giants 24, Redskins 17
Giants -3.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Giants 20, Redskins 6

Baltimore Ravens (8-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (10-5)
Line: Bengals by 6.5. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bengals -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 16): Bengals -6.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 17 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Bengals.

If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It’s free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. There’s no reason not to enter. Click the link to register! (By the way, the link does not work at the moment, but it will sometime tonight).

By the way, you can check out the Pick Em Leaderboard here.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Joe Flacco looked pretty terrible in last week’s loss to the Patriots. After suffering a knee injury at the end of a previous game, Flacco couldn’t move at all and struggled as a consequence. He told reporters Tuesday that his knee “feels a lot better,” which could be a flat-out lie because he also said that his knee felt “really good” during the blowout defeat. Yeah, I’m sure it did.

If Flacco’s health doesn’t improve, he’ll be in a ton of trouble against the Bengals, who bring a ton of pressure on the quarterback. They just managed to sack Matt Cassel four times, and given the usual ineptitude of Baltimore’s offensive line, they could accumulate a similar figure in this contest. Flacco just took four sacks against the Patriots, so that jibes with that expected number.

If this were last year, Flacco could lean on Ray Rice heavily, but Rice also hasn’t looked like himself, though this has been prevalent the entire season. Cincinnati has one of the top ground defenses in the NFL anyway, so Rice would’ve had a challenge even he happened to be healthy and his blockers didn’t totally suck.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Given that Flacco and the rest of Baltimore’s scoring attack is expected to struggle, the defense will really have to step up. However, the stop unit has also struggled lately. We just watched the Patriots run all over the Ravens. This was not a freak occurrence, as Minnesota did the same thing back in Week 14. The Bengals haven’t moved the chains that efficiently on the ground lately, though Giovani Bernard is always a threat to go the distance.

Baltimore’s mild struggles versus the run isn’t the team’s biggest problem. The pass rush has been non-existent for some inexplicable reason. The Ravens have logged just three sacks in their previous three contests, and five in their past four. Andy Dalton is protected extremely well, so it’ll be difficult for Baltimore to rattle the Cincinnati quarterback, who plays so much better at home.

Another problem area for the Ravens is the safety position. Neither Matt Elam nor James Ihedigbo is playing particularly well right now. That spells trouble against Dalton. As mentioned, he thrives at home, so he’ll be able to successfully air it out to A.J. Green and Marvin Jones, who were unstoppable last week.

RECAP: Here are three reasons I like the Bengals:

1. The Ravens need to win this game to stay alive, so they’re in a bet-against dynamic, as referenced earlier.

2. Cincinnati is awesome at home, owning 7-0 straight-up and spread records.

3. Flacco is not nearly at 100 percent, no matter what he says. He’s not the same quarterback with his current knee issue.

I liked Cincinnati much better when it was -4, but I’m still willing to wager two units on -6.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp money on this game, as the spread keeps getting pushed up. We keep getting less and less value, as it’s now -6.5. I think it’s worth waiting to see if it drops back down to -6. It’s worth a gamble because there’s not much of a difference between -6.5 and -7, since you’re only worrying about a push if the spread is a touchdown.

SUNDAY NOTES: Chad Millman noted that the sharps are on the Ravens. The sharps actually pushed the spread up in the first place, but there might have been some “buyback” at +6.5. Cincinnati is still the sharp play, though it does concern me that both of Andy Dalton’s tight ends are out.

The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.

This is a must-win for the Ravens, and they’re not home underdogs.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
A good amount of money on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 60% (32,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

History: Ravens have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Ravens are 15-10 ATS in road games off a home loss the previous 25 instances.

John Harbaugh is 8-1 ATS following a loss of 10+.

Bengals are 18-32 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Bengals are 10-16 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more since 2007.

Opening Line: Bengals -4.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Rain, 49 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Bengals 30, Ravens 20
Bengals -6.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bengals 34, Ravens 17

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-11) at Indianapolis Colts (10-5)
Line: Colts by 11. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Colts -5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 16): Colts -7.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 17 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Colts.

Some of you might be leaving this site until September since the regular season will be over in a few days. If so, here’s what you’ll be missing over the next four-and-a-halfmonths:

Constant 2014 NFL Mock Draft and 2015 NFL Mock Draft updates from Charlie and myself.

Live 2014 NFL Draft Grades

2014 NFL Free Agent Rankings and Offseason Needs (starting next week)

NFL Draft Rumors

NFL Draft Prospect Team Meeting Lists

2014 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings, Big Board and Scouting Report updates

Senior Bowl, East-West Shrine, NFL Draft Combine and Pro Day reports, stats, news updates and stock reports

2014 Fantasy Football Rankings and Articles (they’ll be up early this year)

NBA and college basketball picks

2014 NCAA Tournament picks and coverage

2014 and 2015 NBA Draft updates (go here for our 2014 NBA Mock Draft)

Jerks of the Week

The Emmitt Smith, April Fools and Celebrity 2014 NFL Mock Drafts (i.e. jokes about fat coaches, drunk quarterbacks and clueless announcers – the usual)

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts have to be very encouraged right now. They just defeated the Chiefs by 16 in a game in which their offensive line played extremely well. If their blockers can continue to perform like they did at Kansas City, Indianapolis will be a tough out in the playoffs.

The Colts didn’t face much resistance from the Jaguars in their first meeting against them. However, Jacksonville’s pass rush has improved tremendously since its bye, so this will actually be a surprising test for Indianapolis. Believe it or not, only four teams have accumulated more sacks than the Jaguars over the past four weeks. They could get to Luck, as most teams have this year, but again, it all depends on whether or not the offensive line can’t hold up as well as it did in the victory over the Chiefs.

The Jaguars’ defense can still easily be beaten by most teams, however. Jacksonville is extremely weak on the ground, having surrendered a ridiculous 342 combined rushing yards to its previous two opponents. However, the Colts may not be able to take advantage of this liability because Trent Richardson sucks. Donald Brown has outplayed Richardson is nearly every game since the trade, yet Indianapolis insists on using the inferior back. There’s really no reason Brown should’ve had six fewer carries than Richardson last week.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: There’s not much of an offense here to speak of. Both Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts are out for the year, which has forced Chad Henne to work with Ace Sanders and Mike Brown as his starting receivers. Henne actually hasn’t fared too badly considering the circumstances; he’s somehow thrown two touchdowns in four consecutive contests.

The Colts’ stop unit just did a great job of limiting Alex Smith, although that’s not all that difficult. Still though, it bodes well for the team’s matchup against Henne and his crap receivers.

Meanwhile, Indianapolis won’t have to worry very much about Maurice Jones-Drew, who didn’t look like himself last week when he rushed for 45 yards on 13 carries. Jones-Drew is bothered by a hamstring injury, so he won’t handle the full workload. The Colts have one of the five worst run defenses in the NFL, so they have to feel pretty happy about that.

RECAP: I’m taking Jacksonville for a unit. This spread is just way too high. Since their bye, the Jaguars are 3-3, with their losses coming by 4, 7 and 13 points. I don’t see why they would suddenly be blown out. Gus Bradley has them playing hard, so they won’t quit or anything.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Here’s another game in which the sharps and public are split. Chad Millman loves Jacksonville, for what it’s worth.

SUNDAY NOTES: One of the seven leading bookies in the Bookie Battle chose Indianapolis as the top selection. Having said that, the Jaguars seem like the right side. Millman noted that the sharps are on the Jaguars.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 56% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: 17 of the last 23 meetings decided by 8 points or fewer (Colts 2-0 SU last 2).

Andrew Luck is 11-4 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Colts -11.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Colts 20, Jaguars 13
Jaguars +11 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Colts 30, Jaguars 10

New York Jets (7-8) at Miami Dolphins (8-7)
Line: Dolphins by 7.5. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 16): Dolphins -3.5.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 17 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well.

Random College Football Notes:

1. I’ve always maintained that bowl games are meaningless. We just saw Washington State and Colorado State play a thrilling contest in the Gildan New Mexico Bowl. But what does that win mean for Colorado State? What do the Rams get besides some trophy? They beat a 6-6 team, whoop dee freaking doo.

For some reason though, fans of their favorite college team like the bowls. I’ll never understand it, but that’s how it is. Unfortunately, there is one man who is capable of ruining any fan’s bowl experience. Check out this reaction by Form when he found out who the color analyst would be in the Texas Tech bowl:

Poor Form! He’s going to spend nearly four hours listening to a husky man discuss kielbasas, young stallions and 100-percent USDA Men. If he’s lucky, he’ll hear Millen point out only three players he’d like to ride all night long.

2. I received an e-mail from Aaron M., a fan of the site, who asked me to change the Ole Miss mascot. Aaron, an Ole Miss student, pointed out that I’m using the old Colonel Reb mascot in my 2014 NFL Mock Draft:

For those of you who don’t know, Ole Miss changed its logo because it deemed this Colonel Reb to be racist, since he reminded everyone of a southern plantation owner. Well, I hate it when there are logo changes because of race implications – check out my rant about the Redskins team name controversy – so I’m obviously in favor of keeping Colonel Reb.

Besides, I never thought of a plantation owner when I looked at Colonel Reb. He reminded me of my drunken uncle – I call him my “druncle” – because he sometimes gets so wasted that he thinks he’s still in the army. It’s quite amusing to me – as long as he doesn’t get yet another DUI – so I’ll always be fond of Colonel Reb.

3. One NBA note: I don’t ever wish anyone outside of QB Dog Killer to get hurt, but I can’t say I was too upset when Kobe Bryant went down recently. Not that I was praying for him to get injured or anything, but I was sick and tired of SportsCenter dedicating 30 minutes of each broadcast discussing why Bryant isn’t somehow leading the Lakers to a possible NBA championship. Umm… because he’s old and happens to be coming off a torn Achilles extremely prematurely? Derp dee derp.

I was never a fan of Bryant. He’s always come off like a smug douche bag, so this makes it worse. I didn’t think Bryant would return until April at the earliest. A torn Achilles is not something anyone should rush back from, yet he arrogantly just brushed it off with a wry smile, as he just assumed that he could return early because he assumes that he’s better than everyone else.

Of course, part of the reason I hate Kobe is SportsCenter. They showed highlights of his first game back against Toronto, and even though the Raptors won, ESPN didn’t show a single offensive highlight of theirs. Not one. It was all Kobe. That pretty much epitomized how utterly insufferable SportsCenter has become.

Oh, and these weren’t just any highlights. Stuart Scott read them. During Kobe’s shots, he said things like “Young fella, wuzz my name” and “Swag all day long.” Swag all day long? He had nine points and eight turnovers! How the hell is that “Swag all day long?” What does that even mean anyway?

In short, Kobe sucks now. He’s done. I was looking forward to betting against him, but he’s out. So that’s another reason to hate him.

I’m going to post my NBA Picks once the NFL season is over.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins were just shut out at Buffalo. That was no fluke. It’s not like Miami had tons of bad luck or crazy turnovers; this was a legitimate showing of complete offensive futility. The Dolphins mustered just 103 net yards of offense and a laughable six first downs, all because they couldn’t pass protect whatsoever.

Ryan Tannehill was sacked at least once on almost every drive, usually going to the ground on third down. This was expected though. Miami’s offensive line is in shambles, while the Bills have the most sacks in the NFL. It’ll get easier against the Jets, but only by default. New York is tied for 11th with 41 sacks, as Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson are fully capable of dominating the trenches. Both players will put tons of heat on the opposing quarterback, though Tannehill will have more success finding open receivers than he did at Buffalo. This is because New York has an atrocious secondary incapable of covering anyone.

The Jets can at least make up for this by stuffing the run. They have a top-five ground defense, so they shouldn’t have much of a problem containing Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller, both of whom mustered very little against the Bills, who are worse at stopping the rush.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Speaking of running games, Chris Ivory figures to have a big day. Over the past month, only eight teams have been worse at stopping ground attacks than Miami in terms of YPC. Fred Jackson ran all over the Dolphins last week, as he and the Bills tallied 195 rushing yards on 41 carries. Ivory isn’t as good as Jackson or C.J. Spiller, but he’s had some big outings.

The Jets will need Ivory to get going in order to protect Geno Smith. The second-year rookie is coming off a strong outing versus Cleveland, which is actually quite ominous. Smith hasn’t been able to string two solid performances, and he has especially struggled on the road; 16 of his 25 turnovers this year have come in away contests.

Besides, Smith wasn’t even good at home against the Dolphins in their first matchup. Back in Week 13, Smith was just 4-of-10 for 29 yards and an interception before getting yanked in favor of Matt Simms. Miami also brings a heavy pass rush, so that could easily rattle Smith again.

RECAP: I’m picking the Jets for three units. Here’s why:

1. The Dolphins need to win. As discussed earlier, this means they probably won’t perform well.

2. This spread doesn’t make much sense. The Dolphins have to win by seven to cover, yet they’ve been victorious by that margin or more only twice this season.

3. The underdog is usually an automatic bet in Miami contests; teams catching points are 50-22 against the spread in the Dolphins’ previous 72 games, which is a staggering figure.

4. Contrary to what most may think, Rex Ryan has done quite well in divisional revenge games as a head coach. He’s 10-5 against the spread in such situations.

Speaking of Ryan, I should note that the lame-duck situation I discussed in the Redskins-Giants capsule doesn’t apply. There’s a chance Ryan will retain his job if he finishes 8-8, which is an impressive record considering New York’s poor quarterbacking situation.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s slight sharp action on the Jets, but not enough. That’ll help offset the dubious fact that New York happens to be Bill Simmons’ third selection. I’ll keep three units on the underdog.

SUNDAY NOTES: Chad Millman said that the sharps are on the Jets, but it’s odd that this spread was pushed up to +7.5. I still like New York for three units.

The Psychology. Edge: Jets.

The Dolphins need to win, and they’re not home underdogs.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Miami: 53% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

History: Road Team has won 9 of the last 12 meetings.

Underdog is 50-22 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 72 games.

Dolphins are 2-12 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more since 2008.

Dolphins are 9-25 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Dolphins -6.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Possible thunderstorms, 83 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Dolphins 17, Jets 16
Jets +7.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jets 20, Dolphins 7

Detroit Lions (7-8) at Minnesota Vikings (4-10-1)
Line: Lions by 1.5. Total: 51.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Lions -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 16): Vikings -3.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 17 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: TBA.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Three years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

As for 2012, I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that.

I pretend to be Vladimir Putin in my most recent spam responses. Check out the Spam Mails page to see it.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: There are two key players with uncertain statuses entering this game. The first is Adrian Peterson. After missing the Philadelphia victory with foot and groin problems, the All-Pro runner returned to the field against the Bengals, but did not look like himself. He carried the ball just once in the second half before he was yanked. There’s a chance Peterson could sit out this meaningless season finale; he told reporters that his body is “just not responding” right now. Making matters worse, Toby Gerhart is even less likely to play, so if he and Peterson were to miss this contest, the Vikings would start either Matt Asiata or Joe Banyard in the backfield.

The Vikings were able to prevail against the Eagles without Peterson and Gerhart, as Matt Cassel quite easily torched an anemic secondary. However, there’s a huge difference between the Philadelphia and Detroit pass defenses. In the past month, the Eagles are 27th against aerial attacks in terms of YPA, while the Lions are a solid sixth. A major reason for this is the pressure that Ndamukong Suh, Nick Fairley and the rest of the defensive line can generate. This is potentially bad news for the Vikings, as Cassel has taken seven sacks in the past two weeks.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The second major injury is to Calvin Johnson. The monstrous receiver suited up last week, but like Peterson, he was completely ineffective. Shuttling in and out of the lineup, Megatron hauled in just three passes for 43 yards. Jim Schwartz was noncommittal earlier in the week when discussing Johnson’s status, and it’s looking like the Lions may just keep him safe on the bench in what happens to be a meaningless contest for them in the wake of last week’s loss.

We’ve all seen how awful Matthew Stafford can be when he doesn’t have Megatron at his disposal. In the two games Johnson has been out or limited this year, Stafford has struggled to move the chains, and he’s been responsible for some crucial turnovers. He tossed two picks against the Giants, all while maintaining a horrific YPA of 5.3. His mechanics are all screwed up, thanks to poor coaching, and nothing seems to be getting better.

Stafford will have an easy matchup in the Vikings, but he’s still not to be trusted if Johnson isn’t on the field. Reggie Bush is also difficult to have faith in because he has been a fumbling machine at times this season. The Vikings happen to be pretty stout against the rush anyway, so I wouldn’t expect much from him on the ground, even if he’s not benched.

RECAP: This spread opened at -2. Despite lots of action on the Lions, it has risen to -3. The sharps are all over the Vikings. Perhaps they believe the Lions will quit on their lame-duck head coach. Or perhaps they recognize how underrated Minnesota has been over the past six weeks. Whatever their reasoning, I agree with it. I’m taking the Vikings for a couple of units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Vikings, and so am I. It’s very likely that the Lions will quit on Jim Schwartz, who will almost certainly be fired on Black Monday. Make sure you check back for my firing grades.

SUNDAY NOTES: I’m dropping all units here. I hate it when favorites switch sides, and even though I’m getting more points with the Vikings, it’s not a good sign that the sharps have pounded the Lions on Sunday morning.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
The Lions are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 61% (5,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Vikings have won 23 of the last 28 meetings.

Lions are 10-22 ATS against losing teams the previous 32 instances.

Jim Schwartz is 3-8 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Vikings -2.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Vikings 27, Lions 20
Vikings +1.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 51.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Vikings 14, Lions 13

Week 17 NFL Picks – Late Games
Green Bay�at�Chicago, Buffalo�at�New England, Tampa Bay�at�New Orleans, San Francisco�at�Arizona, Kansas City�at�San Diego, St. Louis�at�Seattle, Denver�at�Oakland

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 17 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2024): 6-7 (-$1,275)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 2-2 (+$65)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 1-3 (-$905)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2024): 6-7-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2024): -$435

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 78-79-6, 49.7% (-$4,565)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 19-25-1, 43.2% (-$1,180)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 15-17, 46.9% (-$1,555)
2024 Season Over-Under: 76-74-2, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$165

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)