NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 17, 2013

NFL Picks (Preseason 2013): 10-6 (+$720)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2013): 4-11-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2013): 6-10 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2013): 9-6-1 (+$20)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2013): 11-4 (+$870)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2013): 8-6 (+$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2013): 4-11 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2013): 6-9 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2013): 8-5 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2013): 5-8 (-$280)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2013): 9-4-1 (-$110)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2013): 5-7-3 (-$480)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2013): 9-5 (+$1,660)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2013): 10-6 (+$850)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2013): 7-9 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2013): 10-6 (-$190)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2013): 6-9-1 (-$240)

NFL Picks (2013): 127-122-5 (+$2,760)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 29, 11:35 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 17 NFL Picks – Early Games

Green Bay Packers (7-7-1) at Chicago Bears (8-7)
Line: Packers by 3. Total: 51.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Rodgers).
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 16): Packers -2.5.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 17 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Packers.

Video of the Week: This isn’t a video, but I feel like you’ll enjoy it – as long as you are of the male gender. I posted this on Facebook during the summer, but if you haven’t seen it, my editor sent this to me, and I found it very amusing:

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers’ status won’t be the only injury report Packer fans will closely be monitoring leading up to this contest. Eddie Lacy is also injured. The star rookie runner was knocked out of Sunday’s battle against the Steelers when he aggravated his ankle injury. Mike McCarthy was non committal regarding Lacy’s availability, so we won’t know until the end of the week. Lacy won’t be expected to practice until Friday at the earliest, so it’ll be a while.

Lacy will be needed in this matchup to help expose the opponent’s major liability. The Bears may go down as having the worst run defense in NFL history. It’s really remarkable how bad this unit is. In the past month, Chicago has surrendered a whopping 6.8 yards per carry to the opposition. To illustrate how bad that is, the next-worst team, Atlanta, gives up 5.32 yards per pop in the same span. Lacy trampled the Bears in the first meeting, so he would have similar success in the rematch. James Starks wouldn’t be a bad option, but Lacy would really be able to expose Chicago.

Of course, Rodgers is the big concern. We’ll know sooner about him; the Packers said they’ll have an announcement Thursday. Rodgers would obviously be able to dissect Chicago’s mediocre pass defense that gets no help from a front line that has accumulated the fewest sacks in the NFL. Matt Flynn wouldn’t fare poorly either, but there’s a realistic chance that the Packers wouldn’t punt with Rodgers under center.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Rodgers and Lacy may still play. A third injured Packer, Clay Matthews, is out for sure. The Bears had issues in terms of pass protecting against the Eagles, so not having to deal with Matthews will be huge in that regard. Matthews is Green Bay’s only consistent pass-rusher, so Nick Perry will have to become a greater factor. Perry has flashed at times this season, but he’s been on the field for about half the snaps in recent weeks.

Matthews actually happened to be absent for the first meeting between these teams. In that contest, Josh McCown torched the awful Green Bay secondary. Jay Cutler is more than capable of doing the same thing, though unlike McCown, he happens to be very turnover-prone. Cutler is erratic and often forces the issue. The Packers will need to take advantage of these opportunities.

The Bears, meanwhile, need to establish Matt Forte to make sure those situations never arise. They seldom rushed the ball at Philadelphia last week in a game that got away from them. Forte is fully capable of gashing a Green Bay stop unit that had no answer for Le’Veon Bell this past Sunday. Over the past month, only Atlanta and Chicago have been worse against the rush.

RECAP: There’s no spread posted for this game, so check back later in the week for my official pick. I’m tentatively taking Green Bay.

LINE POSTED: The Packers have opened -3 in the wake of Aaron Rodgers’ return. I’ll have a pick posted on Friday.

PICK POSTED: I haven’t posted an official selection until Saturday evening because I wasn’t sure where I was going with this game. I planned to pick the Packers, but I couldn’t decide how many units. I’ve opted for two.

Here are some things to consider:

1. Many expect the Bears to rebound from such an ugly loss, but why would they? They’re not very good. Their defense is a complete joke, while Jay Cutler doesn’t completely seem like himself. Since his return, he’s played only one good quarter – and that was against a Cleveland defense that lost Joe Haden to an injury. Cutler has been mediocre or worse the rest of the time.

2. Speaking of Cutler, Aaron Rodgers owns him. Cutler is 1-7 against the Packers. Rodgers is in his head.

3. You may notice that nearly 70 percent of the money is on Green Bay, but that’s actually sharp action. The wise guys are indeed on the road favorite.

I’d make this a greater play if I were more confident in Rodgers’ status. He’ll probably be fine, but there’s always a chance he aggravates his injury. That’s why I’m limiting this selection to two units.

SUNDAY NOTES: Chad Millman gave the Packers his stamp of approval Sunday morning, though it was just an executive decision. The sharps are actually on the Packers.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
This is a must-win for both teams.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Early money on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 73% (32,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Jay Cutler is 1-7 vs. the Packers.

Aaron Rodgers is 47-27 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 22-15 ATS on the road as long as he’s not favored by 6.5 or more points.

Jay Cutler is 31-56 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Packers -3.

Opening Total: 53.

Weather: Possible snow, 29 degrees. HEAVY WIND, 24 mph.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Packers 28, Bears 21
Packers -3 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 51 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 33, Bears 28

Buffalo Bills (6-9) at New England Patriots (11-4)
Line: Patriots by 7. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -8.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 16): Patriots -11.5.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 17 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts is back for a second season! As with everything else though, I’m moving it to its own separate page. See what’s going on this week with this picture here:

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Don’t expect Bill Belichick to put forth a stupid offensive game plan. Belichick obviously won’t do that, but one of his AFC East counterparts was just guilty of that last week. I have no idea what the Dolphins were thinking. Buffalo’s defensive strength is its pass rush, yet the team can’t defend the run. So, what did Miami do? It called for just 12 running plays. Absolute genius!

The Patriots don’t have the best backs in the NFL, but they do move the chains on the ground very efficiently with LeGarrette Blount and Stevan Ridley (when the latter isn’t fumbling the ball). Blount has averaged 4.5 yards per carry this year, as opposing defenses still respect Tom Brady amid his struggles. Blount’s figure probably will increase by the time this game as over, given that the Bills had surrendered 111-plus rushing yards to their previous five opponents before Miami.

Unlike Ryan Tannehill, who was a sitting duck in third-and-long situations, Brady will have more manageable plays to work with. His supporting cast is depleted, but he can still be highly effective, as he’s proven the past two weeks.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Despite starting Thad Lewis over the injured E.J. Manuel, the Bills did a good job of sustaining drives against the Dolphins. The key spark was Fred Jackson, who completely trampled Miami’s front. That, however, won’t happen to New England. The Patriots initially struggled against the rush once they lost Vince Wilfork for the season, but they’ve limited their previous four opponents to 3.57 yards per carry, which is good for seventh in the NFL over the past month.

Buffalo’s quarterback – there isn’t much of a difference between Manuel and Lewis, so let’s call them “E.J. Lewis” – will have to do more on his own this week. That could be troublesome, as New England’s secondary just proved that it’s capable of feasting on incapable quarterbacks. They made Joe Flacco’s afternoon a living hell, and the same could be in store for E.J. Lewis.

Thad Manuel – that might be better – will have to worry about pressure as well. The Patriots apply heat on the quarterback quite effectively – only five teams have more sacks this year – while Thad Manuel has taken 12 sacks in Buffalo’s previous three games.

RECAP: This is one of my top two plays of the week. I love the Patriots again. Here’s why:

1. Week 17 is a different animal. Some teams simply aren’t motivated to win in this particular week if no playoff implications are involved. Other coaches try really hard no matter what. Belichick fits into the latter category. He’s a whopping 10-2 against the spread in Week 17 games.

2. The Bills just won their Super Bowl against the Dolphins. They put forth maximum effort in that game. This may seem counterintuitive considering that the Patriots are an even greater opponent, but Buffalo knows that it can’t beat New England. The team has never won in Gillette Stadium, after all. The Bills put all of their energy into beating Miami.

3. Speaking of playing in other stadiums, the Bills are dreadful on the road. Counting the Toronto game, Buffalo is 2-6 straight up and against the spread on the road this year. The team has lost four of those six games by at least 13 points. The Buccaneers even beat them by 21!

4. Here’s a great trend going against Buffalo: Road teams coming off double-digit victories as home underdogs are just 18-43 against the spread since 1989. This meshes with the second point I made about the Bills winning their “Super Bowl” against the Dolphins.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still love the Patriots. There’s sharp money on the Bills, but Belichick is money in Week 17. The sharps faded him in previous Week 17s, and it appears as though they haven’t learned their lesson.

SUNDAY NOTES: Chad Millman confirmed that the sharps are on the Bills. He noted all of these impressive Buffalo stats, but all of those came at home. Buffalo is so much worse on the road. I’m still keeping four units on New England.

The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.

The Bills put all of their energy into beating Miami.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Lots of money on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 77% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 19 of the last 20 meetings.

Bills are 6-26 ATS after playing the Miami Dolphins since 1998.

Patriots are 41-28 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Patriots are 27-14 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.

Patriots are 10-2 ATS in Week 17 since 2001.

Tom Brady is 158-53 as a starter (120-86 ATS).

Opening Line: Patriots -7.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Rain, 38 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Patriots 34, Bills 17
Patriots -7 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Over 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 34, Bills 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-11) at New Orleans Saints (11-4)
Line: Saints by 10.5. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 16): Saints -12.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 17 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Saints.

This summer, I ran a Mafia game on the Web site called Penn State Sex Scandal Mafia. You can click the link to read the introduction and see the list of players. I’ll add to this page throughout the season, listing roles and talking about funny things that happened during the game.

Why am I doing this? Well, I wanted to post this on the main section of this Web site so that the mainstream media people who have sand in their vages will pick up on this and complain that I’m being insensitive.

Oh, and by the way, we have other Mafia games going on right now in the Mafia Forum. Mafia is a blast, so come and join the fun.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: I know I’m not revealing some super-secret football knowledge by typing this, but Drew Brees is just so much better at home. I posted these stats last week in my Saints-Panthers preview:

Brees didn’t play poorly against Carolina. Despite having tons of pressure in his face, he still put the team in position to win with a minute remaining in regulation. However, Brees wasn’t dominant like he can be in the Superdome. He also won’t have several defenders swarming his backfield on every play. Unlike the Panthers, Tampa Bay’s defense doesn’t get much heat on opposing quarterbacks. The Buccaneers actually happen to be in the bottom 10 of sacks this year. They have Gerald McCoy to apply great pressure on the quarterback, but that’s about it.

Tampa also hasn’t been particularly strong against the rush lately. The team surrendered 250 combined yards on the ground to its previous two opponents. That may not seem like a big deal against the Saints, but Mark Ingram just ran very well at Carolina, gaining 83 yards on just 13 carries. The Buccaneers will be overly concerned about Brees, Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston and Darren Sproles, so they won’t pay much attention to Ingram.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: This is Mike Glennon’s last chance to prove to the current or future coaching staff that he deserves the starting job in 2014. Glennon played well in several November games, particularly against the Falcons and Lions, but he has sputtered lately. In four December contests, he has thrown four touchdowns while committing six turnovers. He’s maintained YPAs of 6.1 or worse in three of the four games. He’s also completed just 53.8 percent of his passes this month.

To be fair, Glennon doesn’t have much to work with. He has just one viable receiver, while his offensive line has been anemic lately, surrendering 21 sacks in the past five weeks. That’s just awful, and it’s a figure that is expected to rise even more because the Saints put great pressure on the quarterback. Only three teams (Bills, Panthers, Rams) have accumulated more sacks than New Orleans this season.

Also, Bobby Rainey is obviously not a particularly good back. He was highly ineffective last week against St. Louis, and that will probably be the case once again, as the Saints just did a great job of shutting down DeAngelo Williams, who didn’t do anything outside of one run following a turnover.

RECAP: The Saints need to win this game, so they’re in a fade situation. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are playing their second consecutive road game, which is a huge “bet on” situation.

Those two items may make it seem like the Buccaneers are the right side. However, that’s not the case because the Saints are just so dominant at home. Also, Brees has an outstanding record following a loss, so that’s another reason to lean toward New Orleans.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Buccaneers. I’m split on the game, so if you’re into following the “wise guys,” go with Tampa.

SUNDAY NOTES: One of the seven bookies leading in the Bookie Battle has New Orleans as the top selection.

The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Saints are in a must-win situation, and they’re not home underdogs.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Who’s not taking the Saints?

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 74% (26,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Saints have won the last 4 meetings.

Saints are 32-13 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Drew Brees is 26-15 ATS after a loss with the Saints (8-3 ATS as an underdog).

Saints are 16-24 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Saints are 6-11 ATS as double-digit favorites under Sean Payton.

Opening Line: Saints -12.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Saints 37, Buccaneers 21
Saints -10.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 42, Buccaneers 17

Denver Broncos (12-3) at Oakland Raiders (4-11)
Line: Broncos by 11. Total: 53.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -13.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 16): Broncos -9.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 17 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

As I mentioned earlier, my programmers are currently working on an NFL Mock Draft Builder, so we will be having our NFL Mock Draft contest on this Web site for the first time. Look for the NFL Mock Draft Builder right after Christmas. I don’t have any screenshots for you right now, but I think I’ll have them available very soon. Stay tuned. Also, we’re working on user profile pages for everyone, as well as new comment boards (where you can log in or post anonymously) and a WalterFootball.com Shop. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

DENVER OFFENSE: Everyone is so infatuated by Peyton Manning that they’re overlooking two things. First, Denver struggled to score prior to the fourth quarter of Sunday’s contest. It was 16-13 entering the final frame, but Houston simply ran out of gas. Two late Manning touchdowns came when they gave up, which completely inflated that final score. Manning has a habit of posting meaningless touchdowns at the very end though, especially when he’s gunning for records like he was in Houston.

Manning can accumulate as many yards and touchdowns as he’d like against the Raiders, who have a putrid secondary and a lacking pass rush. Oakland has the worst YPA of any team in the NFL over the past month, thanks in part to registering just six sacks in their previous four games. Though Manning will probably be without Wes Welker again, he’ll be able to complete long passes with ease.

The Broncos also figure to have some success on the ground. The Raiders have defended the run well for most of the year, but they’ve been leaky against it lately, as they surrendered 151 rushing yards on 33 carries to Ryan Mathews and the Chargers.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: I mentioned there were two items that were being overlooked because of Manning’s gaudy numbers. The second is Von Miller’s season-ending injury. It seems bizarre that losing one of the NFL’s best defensive players wouldn’t generate much discussion, but neither ESPN nor NFL Network even mentioned the ACL tear during the highlights Sunday night. Someone on ESPN tried to marginalize it by stating that Miller isn’t having a great season. I have no idea what sort of drugs that person was on because Miller had been playing phenomenally. Not having him on the field will make winning a Super Bowl extremely difficult for this Denver team.

Terrelle Pryor has to be thrilled that he won’t have to deal with Miller’s pressure. Denver’s linebacking corps is in shambles now, so the Broncos will have trouble tackling Pryor when he scrambles downfield for yards. Pryor will throw the kitchen sink at Denver because he’s playing for some sort of a job next year. His agent recently said that the Raiders are starting Pryor just to make him look bad because they bungled the Matt McGloin situation (why wasn’t McGloin benched two weeks ago?) but in reality, this is a great opportunity for Pryor because Denver’s defense is crap right now.

The Broncos had major issues defending the run even before Miller went down, so this matchup will be even easier than anticipated for Rashad Jennings, who will break off big chunks of yardage, making things much easier for Pryor.

RECAP: Going against Manning is always a scary proposition, but this spread is WAY too high. When’s the last time the Broncos have put together a great game? As discussed, they struggled to put away the Texans. The Chargers dominated them. They had issues against the Titans until very late. The Chiefs would’ve beaten them if they don’t drop countless passes. The Patriots won in overtime. You could say that Denver’s last great performance was back on Nov. 17 – and they had Welker and Miller for that 27-17 victory over Kansas City.

This may make it seem like I’m going to bet the Raiders. Well, that’s not the case. I am picking them to cover, but they’re not taking any of my money. As discussed earlier, teams with lame-duck coaches tend to struggle, so even though this could be Oakland’s Super Bowl, it could just as easily mail it in.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Raiders. I would be too if I were convinced that Oakland wouldn’t quit on the lame-duck Dennis Allen.

SUNDAY NOTES: The Raiders are another top selection in the Bookie Battle, but they’re very difficult to bet on.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

No surprise where the money is going.

Percentage of money on Denver: 78% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Road Team has won 8 of the last 11 meetings (Broncos last 4).

John Fox is 7-4 ATS in Week 17 games.

Peyton Manning is 38-25 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.

Raiders are 6-19 ATS in their final home game since 1985.

Raiders are 2-7 ATS in Week 17 since 2003.

Opening Line: Broncos -10.5.

Opening Total: 53.5.

Weather: Sunny, 65 degrees. Light wind.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Broncos 26, Raiders 17
Raiders +11 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 53.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 34, Raiders 14

San Francisco 49ers (11-4) at Arizona Cardinals (10-5)
Line: Cardinals by 1.5. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 16): Cardinals -1.5.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 17 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

If you didn’t catch it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 6, Episode 16 has been posted – What really happened to Aaron Hernandez in the summer of 2013.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers couldn’t get anything going on this side of the ball in the first half of the Monday night game. Colin Kaepernick struggled to complete half of his passes, and he was nearly picked twice. He eventually got on a roll after intermission, but that was expected of him. The Falcons, after all, have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Conversely, it could be argued that the Cardinals have the league’s best stop unit.

The Cardinals have accumulated the fourth-most sacks in the NFL. They made last week’s game a living hell for Russell Wilson, and they figure to do the same thing to Kaepernick, who has taken an average of 3.1 sacks per game since the team’s Week 9 bye. Kaepernick even went down three times on Monday night against a defense that is in the bottom 10 of sacks this year. If the 49ers couldn’t pass protect against the hapless Falcons, how will they respond to Arizona’s ferocious pass rush?

While the Cardinals are proficient in terms of generating lots of pressure on the quarterback, perhaps their best attribute is stopping the run. They’re second in terms of YPC (3.26), and the last time they surrendered more than 83 yards on the ground was back in Week 7. Arizona will limit Frank Gore, making things even more difficult for Kaepernick. However, Kaepernick will still be able to move the chains on occasion by targeting Vernon Davis. The Cardinals are extremely weak when it comes to defending tight ends. The 49ers just better hope that Davis doesn’t miss extensive time with some sort of weird eye issue again.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals legitimately outgained San Francisco in their Week 6 meeting, 403-387. However, they lost by 12 because they committed five turnovers, some of which were unforced errors in the red zone. Just one field goal would’ve covered the spread, which infuriated me at the time because I had Arizona and the points.

Will things be different this time around? Well, Palmer is coming off a four-interception affair at Seattle, so conventional wisdom says no. However, of his 24 turnovers this year, only nine have come at home. That’s not bad. San Francisco brings only a fair amount of pressure on the quarterback, so it’s not like Palmer will be pressured as much as he was in Seattle. He’ll connect with Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd on some deep shots, perhaps beating Eric Reid, who has struggled in coverage in the second half of the season. It’s also important to note that Andre Ellington wasn’t much of a factor back in Week 6, as he carried the ball just seven times. Arizona’s offense has been much better with Ellington, who is a threat to go the distance whenever he has the ball in his hands. He’s still not getting as many touches as needed, but he’ll continue to have a big impact on the Cardinals’ offense.

RECAP: The Cardinals need to win to stay alive. This is normally a bad thing, but as discussed earlier, home underdogs usually fare well in this situation. Good home dogs are quality bets regardless; the Cardinals are 22-9 against the spread at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007. They’re very underrated and should be favorites against the 49ers, who nearly lost to the Falcons on Monday night. My line is Arizona -2.5, so we’re getting some value here.

This will be a two-unit wager. It would be a greater play, but I can’t say I’m particularly fond of betting against Jim Harbaugh.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Unit change! I’m dropping this to zero units. A few reasons: First, the sharps are betting on San Francisco. Arizona seems like such a square bet after the 49ers were a huge disappointment Monday night. Second, Bill Simmons picked the Cardinals. And third, I thought about it, and I don’t want to go against Harbaugh in a big game. I’m almost tempted to switch this selection to San Francisco, but it’s too late in the week to do that.

SUNDAY NOTES: I’m very torn on this game, so it’s no surprise that I’d receive mixed signals on Sunday morning. Chad Millman said the sharps are on the Cardinals, but I’m seeing sharp action on the 49ers. One of the Bookie Battle top picks is Arizona. Pass.

The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.

The Cardinals are in a must-win situation, and they happen to be home underdogs.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 57% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

History: 49ers have won 10 of the last 13 meetings.

Jim Harbaugh is 3-0 ATS after Monday Night Football.

Cardinals are 24-9 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Cardinals are 22-9 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: 49ers -1.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Cardinals 26, 49ers 20
Cardinals -1.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
49ers 23, Cardinals 20

Kansas City Chiefs (11-4) at San Diego Chargers (8-7)
Line: Chargers by 10.5. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 16): Chargers -13.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 17 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Chargers.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for Dec. 23, 2013 is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is about the Toyotathon Commercials.

RESTING STARTERS: I’m not going to delve into this matchup because the Chiefs will be resting their starters. The backfield combination of Chase Daniel and Knile Davis won’t produce much against San Diego’s improved defense, while Kansas City’s second-string stop unit doesn’t stand much of a chance versus Philip Rivers. So, with that in mind, let’s just jump to the recap.

RECAP: I think this is an impossible game to handicap right now. On one hand, Andy Reid has historically mailed in meaningless Week 17 games. His backups obviously won’t score many points and will have issues preventing Rivers from lighting up the scoreboard. On the other hand, if either Miami or Baltimore wins at 1 p.m., this game will be rendered meaningless for the Chargers, who will be eliminated from the playoffs. They could be extremely deflated in such a scenario.

I’m going to pick San Diego to cover the spread, but for zero units. However, if the Steelers and Dolphins are both losing around 3:30-4, I may place some units on the Chargers. Remember, while must-wins are bad things for non-home dogs, it’s fine if the team in question is battling an opponent playing just its backups. Check back Sunday afternoon or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Once again, check back Sunday afternoon or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

SUNDAY NOTES: This spread keeps dropping, so if you believe the Ravens and Dolphins will both lose, bet the Chargers now at -8.5. Jamaal Charles is out.

Both the Ravens and Dolphins are losing right now. The Chargers have risen to -10.5.

I’m thinking Chargers for two units if the scores hold up like this. I’ll make it official in 10-15 minutes. Stay tuned @walterfootball for updates.

PICK POSTED: The Ravens are down 10 and just gave up possession with 7:30 remaining. The Dolphins are trailing by 13 with 3:03 left. The Chargers now have control of their own destiny. Most teams that need to win choke, but this is a special case for two reasons. First, San Diego will be playing with tons of energy because it didn’t expect to have any sort of life heading into the day. And second, all of the Chiefs’ starters are out. Alex Smith, Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, Tamba Hali, Branden Albert, etc. are all inactive. Andy Reid has a history of mailing in these Week 17 games, and that’s exactly what he’s doing here.

I’m taking San Diego for two units even though this spread has risen to -13.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Chargers are in a must-win situation, but the Chiefs will sit their starters.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.
People are betting on the Chiefs’ backups… why?

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 63% (8,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Home Team has won 22 of the last 31 meetings (Chargers have won 10 of the last 12).

Andy Reid is 10-5 ATS on the West Coast.

Philip Rivers is 28-16 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30.

Opening Line: Chargers -10.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Sunny, 74 degrees. Light wind.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Chargers 27, Chiefs 10
Chargers -13 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chargers 27, Chiefs 24

St. Louis Rams (7-8) at Seattle Seahawks (12-3)
Line: Seahawks by 12.5. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 16): Seahawks -14.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 17 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

I added a second fake account this year – Vivian Williamson. This is based off of Miss Vivian, a security guard at the Philadelphia International Airport, whom I’ve written about in Jerks of the Week (click the link to read about her).

Unfortunately, some a**holes with no sense of humor decided to flag Miss Vivian as a troller, so I had to make a new account. Kevin Reilly has been born!

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Russell Wilson had perhaps the worst performance of his young career last week. Dealing with heavy pressure all afternoon, he went just 11-of-27 for 108 yards, one touchdown and that weird interception. He was battling one of the top defenses in the league, however, so it’s no wonder that he struggled. Unfortunately for Wilson, it doesn’t get much easier against St. Louis.

Only three teams have more sacks than the Cardinals this year, and one of them happens to be the Rams. Robert Quinn, a candidate for NFL Defensive Player of the Year, has logged 18 sacks this season, three of which came against Wilson in a Monday night affair earlier this year. Wilson went 10-of-18 for 139 yards and two touchdowns in that contest, but outside of one long pass to Golden Tate, he didn’t do very much. It’s worth noting though that Wilson didn’t have Russell Okung protecting his blind side in that contest, so Seattle will be more prepared for Quinn this time.

Marshawn Lynch also struggled in that Week 8 affair, rushing for a season-low 23 yards on eight carries. Beast Mode should be better in the rematch, but only by default. He still won’t be able to dominate, as St. Louis has the league’s best defensive YPC over the past month (2.63).

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: It was shocking to see some fifth-round rookie outgain Lynch by more than 100 rushing yards in that first game, but that’s exactly what Zac Stacy did when he trampled Seattle’s ground defense for 134 yards on 26 carries. Stacy has been terrific this season, eclipsing the century mark four times despite not being the full-time back until Week 6. Dealing with the constant presence of eight men in the box also hurts.

There’s good reason that opposing defenses don’t respect Kellen Clemens very much. It’s because he stinks. Well, that’s been the case for the most part, but it’s worth noting that Clemens has completed 30 of his 40 attempted passes in the previous two weeks. He did so at home, however, against teams that didn’t look like they were putting forth maximum effort. Clemens was 15-of-31 for 158 yards and two picks in Week 8 versus the Seahawks, and they weren’t trying hard either.

It’s difficult to envision the Rams moving the chains very much against an angry Seattle team that is being disrespected by the stupid media. Remember, St. Louis just lost Jake Long to a knee injury, so dealing with the Seahawks’ ferocious pass rush will be especially taxing.

RECAP: I usually don’t bet against the Seahawks at home. I did so last week, but only because that game didn’t mean much to them. This one does, however. They’re playing for the No. 1 seed as well as respect after hearing everyone trash them for their loss to Arizona. Wilson is 5-2 against the spread following a loss in his career, and I expect that figure to be 6-2 by Sunday night.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp action on the Rams, which I anticipated. The sharps haven’t done very well in St. Louis games this year, however, as Jeff Fisher’s squad has befuddled them.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps were on the Rams earlier in the week, but some sharp money pushed up Seattle on Sunday morning. Bet the Seahawks now if you like them.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

People still believe in the Seahawks at home.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 65% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

History: Seahawks have won 15 of the last 17 meetings.

Jeff Fisher is 40-26 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Seahawks are 23-9 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -10.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 46 degrees. Light wind.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Seahawks 31, Rams 13
Seahawks -12.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 27, Rams 9

Philadelphia Eagles (9-6) at Dallas Cowboys (8-7)
Line: Eagles by 7. Total: 52.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -2.5 (no Romo).
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 16): Eagles -3.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 8:20 ET
Discuss Week 17 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Eagles.

This week on NBC, we’re going to have Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, annoying men like Charles Davis and senile individuals like Bob Greise. Here’s what it would sound like if those seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Michaels: Welcome to Cowboys Stadium, where tonight we have a winner-take-all matchup between the Cowboys and Eagles. The spread is Philly by 6.5, and I have to admit, Cris, I have 100 units on the Eagles, and I’ve parlayed that with the China hockey team in the Winter Olympics. I’ve also teased the Eagles down to 0.5 along with the amount of times Matt Millen purposely says a homosexual reference in the Texas Tech bowl game.

Collinsworth: Ohhhhhh, I don’t know Al! I’ve studied tape of Millen’s color commentary, and I have to say that all of his sexual references seem to be accidental.

Millen: Accidental? You mean like the one time I tripped and inserted a kielbasa of mine into the backside of a 50-percent USDA Man? I don’t touch anyone who’s less than 100-percent USDA Man, so yes, total accident.

Michaels: Millen, what are you doing here? Get out of our booth!

Millen: Your booth? This is my booth! We can make it our booth though. What say you come by my hotel room afterward for some kielbasa-related fun? Oh, here comes Kevin Reilly now.

Reilly: What are these losers doing here? Sorry I’m late. I was busy switching Tony Romo’s epidural with poison. He was already out for this game, but I needed to make sure that he’s out for all of eternity.

Tollefson: All went according to plan. Soon Romo will perish, and I will commandeer his hot wife, who will cook and clean naked for me every single day until I find someone younger, hotter and more proficient at cooking and cleaning.

Reilly: Yes, it’s a good thing that Emmitt granted us access to the training room as he was on the field for being honored. Poisoning Romo was even easier than I imagined.

Michaels: Why were you two poisoning Romo!? I’ll have to alert the authorities!

Reilly: No, you won’t. Luckily I have some poison left over.

Reilly injects Michaels with poison, and Michaels falls over instantly.

Collinsworth: Ohhhhhh, I don’t know Kevin!

Reilly does the same to Collinsworth, who collapses in similar fashion.

Edwards: WHY ARE YOU POISONING! YOU DON’T HAVE TO POISON! NO NEED FOR POISON! THERE ARE OTHER WAYS THAN POISON! IF YOU DON’T LIKE SOMEBODY, TALK IT OUT! DISCUSS YOUR PROBLEMS! FIND THE SOLUTION! BECOME FRIENDS! DON’T KILL! NO NEED TO KILL! DON’T HAVE TO KILL! DON’T WANT TO KILL! SHOULD NOT KILL! IF YOU KILL, YOU’RE BAD! YOU DON’T WANT TO BE BAD, NOW! SHOULDN’T WANT TO BE BAD! DON’T STRIVE TO BE BAD! BE GOOD INSTEAD! BEING GOOD IS BETTER! GOOD HAS MORE LETTERS THAN BAD! FOUR INSTEAD OF THREE! FOUR IS MORE THAN THREE! THREE IS LESS THAN FOUR! FOUR AND THREE! THREE AND FOUR! FOUR PLUS THERE IS SEVEN! AND SEVEN’S THE MAGIC NUMBER! FOUR MINUS THREE IS ONE! FOUR TIMES THREE IS 15! NO WAIT, HERM GOT THAT WRONG! HERM DON’T HAVE HIS CALCULATOR TO FIGURE THAT OUT! NO CALCULATOR IS BAD! DON’T KNOW HOW TO GIVE TIPS WITHOUT A CALCULATOR! DON’T KNOW HOW TO TIP WITHOUT A CALCULATOR, NOW! CAN’T DO IT! CAN’T TIP! IF THERE’S NO TIP, PEOPLE ARE UPSET! AND YOU DON’T WANT PEOPLE TO BE UPSET, NOW! BECAUSE IF THEY’RE UPSET, THINGS AREN’T GOING TOO GOOD! AND IF THINGS AREN’T GOING TOO GOOD, PEOPLE ARE UPSET! PEOPLE ARE… HERM FORGOT WHAT THE POINT HE WAS TRYING TO MAKE! HERM FORGOT! Forgot… uhh… umm…

Reilly: Herm, you’re lucky it says that I can’t kill you in my contract! Otherwise, you’d be swimming with the fishes already!

Davis: Ah, one of my favorite idioms, Kevin. Let’s discuss some more popular idioms, Kevin. Let’s start with “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush,” Kevin. How about a “blessing in disguise,” Kevin. Let’s try using it in a sentence, Kevin. Kevin poisoned Al Michaels, but it was a blessing in disguise because he lost all of his bets and didn’t have any money to pay his bookies, Kevin. How about “a chip on your shoulder,” Kevin? And I’m not talking about a potato chip or a chocolate chip, Kevin. I’m not even talking about Chip Kelly. Let’s move on to a “dime a dozen,” Kevin. What about “a shot in the dark,” Kevin? How about “a slap on the wrist,” Kevin? “What about “a slip of the tongue,” Kevin? Let’s try “a wolf in sheep’s clothing,” Kevin. Let’s not forget that a wolf can’t actually dress in sheep’s clothing, Kevin. That’s why it’s called an idiom, Kevin.

Reilly: I have an idiom for you, Charles Davis. I’m going to poison you once your contract expires, and then you’ll be dead! We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

DALLAS OFFENSE: Poor Tony Romo. He missed his chance to finally win a big game! OK, those aren’t my words. I’m just echoing what everyone on TV has said over the past few days. It does suck for Romo that he doesn’t get a chance to prove himself in a must-win Week 17 affair, but this could also be a blessing in disguise – thanks, Charles Davis – because this injury could save him from embarrassing himself in yet another season finale. I’m not saying that would definitely happen, but it’s not like it hasn’t occurred before. Romo was mostly brilliant in December last year, but completely crapped the bed against the Redskins in Week 17. That could just as easily have happened here.

Kyle Orton will have a chance to win instead. Orton isn’t very good, but it’s not like he’s some bum either. He’s at least as good as Matt Cassel, and we all saw what Cassel did to Philadelphia’s anemic secondary with a lesser supporting cast two weeks ago. Cassel’s top three weapons in that game were a disappointing Greg Jennings, a raw Cordarrelle Patterson and some back named Matt Asiata. Orton will have Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Terrance Williams and DeMarco Murray at his disposal.

Murray will do damage as a receiver coming out of the backfield, but don’t expect him to be much of a factor on the ground. While the Eagles struggle against the pass, they’ve been pretty dominant in terms of stuffing the run. Throughout the month of December, only the Rams have maintained a better defensive YPC.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Everyone assumes that the Eagles will dominate this side of the ball. The Cowboys, after all, are perceived to have one of the two worst defenses in the NFL, with the other being Chicago. They’ve surrendered an average of 126.3 rushing yards to their previous three opponents, so LeSean McCoy will simply pick up where he left off last Sunday night.

Meanwhile, Nick Foles, who will be able to feed off McCoy’s big gains, figures to have an easy time dissecting a Dallas defense that has looked especially lost without Sean Lee. Thanks to a league-worst pass rush that has accumulated just three sacks in the past four weeks, the Cowboys have a defensive YPA this month of 7.79. Only five teams have been more inept against aerial attacks in that span.

With all of that said, it can’t be ignored that Foles had the worst performance of his career against the Cowboys in the first meeting. He was a disturbing 11-of-29 for only 80 yards. He struggled to connect on most of his passes, as he was a complete train wreck. Foles has been infinitely better since, but I can’t help but think that Monte Kiffin may have some sort of edge on Foles. Perhaps this was just a fluke, but 11-of-29 for 80 yards is rather alarming.

RECAP: The Cowboys are one of my top picks this week. I like them for a bunch of reasons:

1. Both teams have to win this game. As discussed earlier, non-home dogs in this dynamic perform terribly. The Eagles could choke because they’re expected to win.

2. Everyone’s slobbering over Philadelphia’s 54-11 victory over Chicago. The team looked so dominant in that victory that people are dismissing the Minnesota loss. I’m in the minority, but I think the Bears game was the anomaly. Chicago expected to walk all over the Eagles, whom it believed had nothing to play for. The Bears thought a victory would just be handed to them, but they were completely shell shocked. Mix in some turnovers, and the game quickly got away from them. Philadelphia is not 43 points better than Chicago. Despite this fact, that win has created a “halo effect” for the Eagles, so they’ll be a bet-against team going forward.

3. This spread is completely out of whack. There’s no way the Eagles should be more than -3 or -3.5 at Dallas, even with Orton under center. It’s amazing that people just dismiss that Cassel beat Philadelphia, and yet Orton is probably slightly better than Cassel. That’s debatable, but there’s no arguing that Orton has the superior supporting cast.

4. Speaking of Orton, I love betting on quality teams that are missing their quarterback in the first game. The other players tend to step up and perform at 110 percent. Dallas won’t quit even though everyone expects them to get blown out.

5. On a related note, the public is pounding the Eagles, yet this spread has fallen from -7.5 to -6.5. The sharps LOVE the Cowboys, and for good reason.

I never imagined that I’d be wagering heavily on Dallas in Week 17, but this is a four-unit play for me.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I already mentioned this, but the public is all over the Eagles, while the sharps love Dallas. Thus, it shouldn’t surprise you that Bill Simmons has Philadelphia as his fifth and final selection. The Eagles are such a square pick. Every single casual bettor is thinking, “How can the Cowboys keep it close with Orton when the Eagles looked so awesome against the Bears, derp dee derp?”

SUNDAY NOTES: The seventh and final top Bookie Battle pick is on the Cowboys. That’s no surprise, as the sharps are all over Dallas, as Chad Millman confirmed Sunday morning.

SUNDAY NIGHT: The Eagles have risen to -7.5. I still love the Cowboys, but I’m not bumping this up to five units. Something to keep in mind is that the Clete Blakeman Rule is in effect. The public is pounding Philly, so there could be some strange things going on.

The Psychology. Edge: Cowboys.

Both teams are in a must-win situation, but the Eagles aren’t a home dog. Also, no one’s giving the Cowboys a chance.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

The hot Eagles or Kyle Orton? Hmm…

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 75% (43,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

History: Cowboys have won the last 3 meetings.

Cowboys are 19-10 ATS as an underdog since 2009.

The underdog is 43-18 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Opening Line: Eagles -2.5 (with Romo); Eagles -7.5 (without Romo).

Opening Total: 55.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Eagles 24, Cowboys 23
Cowboys +7 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 52.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 24, Cowboys 22

Week 17 NFL Picks – Early Games
Carolina�at�Atlanta, Baltimore�at�Cincinnati, Houston�at�Tennessee, Jacksonville�at�Indianapolis, Cleveland�at�Pittsburgh, NY Jets�at�Miami, Detroit�at�Minnesota, Washington�at�NY Giants

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Patriots -1.5, Bengals -0.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

SUB MENU

Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)