NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2013

NFL Picks (Preseason 2013): 10-6 (+$720)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2013): 4-11-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2013): 6-10 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2013): 9-6-1 (+$20)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2013): 11-4 (+$870)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2013): 8-6 (+$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2013): 4-11 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2013): 6-9 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2013): 8-5 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2013): 5-8 (-$280)

NFL Picks (2013): 71-76-1 (+$840)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 11, 5:35 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games





Washington Redskins (3-5) at Minnesota Vikings (1-7)
Line: Redskins by 1. Total: 48.

Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Redskins -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 9): Pick.
Thursday, Nov. 7, 8:25 ET
Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Redskins.

WEEK 9 RECAP: The Week of the Injured Quarterback. That’s what Week 9, 2013 will always be known for. After all, Aaron Rodgers and Thaddeus Lewis combined to cost me $93,000. Seriously. Read about the story in the next pick capsule.

I went 5-9, -$280 last week. My top play never had a chance because Rodgers left the game on the first drive. I’m not going to say that it was a lock the Packers would cover or anything, but we’ll just never know either way. The Bears scored 27 points, so Rodgers would’ve definitely been capable of putting up at least 38. I projected Green Bay to score 38.

My other big loss on Sunday was Ravens -1.5. I’m done taking Baltimore as a road favorite. John Harbaugh is so bad in that role.

Moving on, I’ve vowed to avoid the following poisonous teams that were responsible for many of my two- and three-unit losses:

Rams
Buccaneers
Jaguars
Giants
Eagles
Vikings
Browns (maybe)

These non-maybe teams combined to go 3-1 ATS in Week 9, but just because the dregs of the NFL had success covering last weekend doesn’t mean that going against them was a terrible idea. Bad things happen when picking bad teams. Overall, these poisonous teams will ruin too many seemingly sharp bets.

I would like to note that I want to remove the Browns from this list. They’re 4-1 against the spread in games in which Brandon Weeden hasn’t started. Weeden was just so bad that he dragged the team down. Meanwhile, the Eagles should rise to “maybe” status. Their defense has been better lately, and perhaps Nick Foles’ seven-touchdown performance will spark him to play more consistently. Thus, our new list is:

Rams
Buccaneers
Jaguars
Giants
Vikings
Eagles (maybe)

Meanwhile, my Las Vegas Hilton Supercontest partner Matvei and I also talked about some situations that almost always win:

Seahawks at home
Saints at home
Packers at home
Jim Harbaugh anywhere (unless he’s playing another top team, i.e. Colts or Seahawks)
Cowboys as underdogs
Tom Brady off a loss as long as he’s not favored by a lot

Those situations went 5-0 against the spread in Week 8, but only 0-1 ATS this past weekend (with Green Bay pending).

Also, we’ve discussed something called the Bermuda Triangle. This originated with the Cardinals, who inexplicably cover at home against all non-elite teams. Very weird things happen in these games that can’t be explained. Thus, Bermuda Triangle. I think we can add the Ravens’ situation here as well. Here are Bermuda Triangle situations:

Bet the Cardinals at home as a dog or small favorite unless they’re playing an elite team.
Fade the Ravens as a road favorite.
Fade the Steelers as a big home favorite or road favorite.
Fade the Cowboys as a very large home favorite.

Week 10 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Robert Griffin and Pierre Garcon are really starting to click – Garcon had seven catches for 172 yards Sunday – which is bad timing for the Vikings, as they are dealing with numerous injuries in their secondary. Harrison Smith is out, while Xavier Rhodes, Jamarca Sanford and Chris Cook are all questionable to play. Minnesota was already pretty pedestrian in terms of stopping the pass, so Griffin should have an easy time torching this week’s opponent.

Of course, the Redskins’ scoring attack is predicated on establishing Alfred Morris – and allowing miscellaneous fullbacks to vulture touchdowns because Mike Shahanan is a douche when it comes to fantasy football. Washington won’t be as successful in this department because Minnesota ranks sixth against the rush in terms of YPC. Dallas didn’t see this as a favorable matchup at all, which is why Tony Romo repeatedly checked out of running plays, limiting DeMarco Murray’s carry total to just four.

Griffin will have to do most of the work Thursday night. This would’ve been fine if the Vikings’ defense were playing like it did a few weeks ago versus Carolina, but this team’s once-dormant pass rush put tons of heat on Tony Romo this past Sunday. The Redskins have a better defensive line, but Griffin should still feel some heat.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings lost a key member of their offense last week when Kyle Rudolph went down with a broken foot. Rudolph isn’t the most glamorous name in this matchup, but Christian Ponder loved him as a safety valve and an end-zone target. The disappointing John Carlson will struggle to replace Rudolph.

And yes, it’ll be Ponder again. Leslie Frazier apparently saw enough of Josh Freeman and his questionable concussion. Besides, Ponder gives Minnesota its best chance to win. Ponder actually played pretty well against the Cowboys last week. Sure, Dallas’ secondary allows every opposing signal-caller except Nick Foles to post record numbers, but so does Washington’s. The Redskins rank 28th against the pass for a reason.

Ponder being functional should open more things up for Adrian Peterson. The Redskins are 24th versus the rush, though they’ve played somewhat better against it recently. Still, limiting Peterson is a very daunting task, even without massive right tackle Phil Loadholt, who is doubtful with a concussion.

RECAP: The Vikings are a terrible team, so I don’t want to bet them, but they seem like the right side. The Redskins just enjoyed an emotional overtime victory and could be flat, especially coming off a short work week. I was actually curious about how teams performed on a Thursday following an overtime win. They’ve been 1-12 against the spread in those situations dating back to 1989.

It’s also worth noting that the sharps are all over Minnesota. Despite tons of action on the Redskins, this spread has dropped from -2.5 to -2.

Again, Week 10 NFL Picks will be posted all day. I’ll announce via Twitter @walterfootball when each selection is posted.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread continues to drop despite lots of public action on the Redskins. The sharps LOVE the Vikings. Remember, the sharps aren’t always right, but you usually want to be on their side. I don’t want to bet on such a bad team, but I can see why the wise guys are all over Minnesota.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Redskins are coming off an emotional win. The Vikings just suffered a deflating loss.


The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
No surprise that everyone is on the Redskins.
  • Percentage of money on Washington: 77% (45,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Opening Line: Redskins -2.
  • Opening Total: 48.5.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 10 NFL Pick: Vikings 27, Redskins 26
    Vikings +1 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Over 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Vikings 34, Redskins 27






    Jacksonville Jaguars (0-8) at Tennessee Titans (4-4)
    Line: Titans by 11. Total: 42.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Titans -12.5.
    Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 9): Titans -7.5.
    Sunday, Nov. 10, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Titans.

    VEGAS RECAP: The sportsbooks had stolen money from the public in six of eight weekends heading into Week 9. There were 11 highly bet games, and the books claimed six of them, thus giving them a winning week.

    Anyway, here’s my $93,000 story, as promised. I’ve been in the Last Man Standing contest, where you pick one team to cover. It’s like survivor; if your pick covers, you stay alive. If not, you lose. You can re-use teams. I’m not sure how many entrants there were to start, but seven survived entering in Week 9. I initially picked the Bills for my Last Man Standing selection, but Thaddeus Lewis was ruled out. Because Lewis was injured, I switched my pick to the Packers. Lo and behold, Green Bay’s quarterback got hurt as well. And just like that, I lost a chance to win close to six figures.

    How do two quarterback injuries combine to do that? What are the odds? It’s like there’s some higher power who hates me. And by “some higher power,” I mean Roger Goodell, who obviously orchestrated this because he’s tired of me making fun of him on this Web site.

    That Monday night game was quite painful, as you can imagine. I just sat there with a what the f*** feeling. If I’m going to lose a great shot at $93,000, I want it to be legitimate. Knowing it was over right away because Rodgers went down sucked balls.

    I’ll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I’ll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

    JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars’ 2013 season is so miserable that they literally lost on their bye week. Justin Blackmon was suspended for the entire season this week for violating the league’s substance-abuse policy. He’s Jacksonville’s top offensive play-maker, as the offense improved when he returned from his initial ban. Now he’s gone again, leaving Chad Henne with guys named Mike Brown, Stephen Burton and Ace Sanders to throw to outside of Cecil Shorts.

    It’s difficult to imagine Jacksonville mustering many points in this game. The team’s offensive line is in shambles following the Eugene Monroe trade and Luke Joeckel injury. Guard Will Rackley is hurt as well. Rackley isn’t any good, but he’s better than the blocker he’s starting over. This is bad news, given the impending matchup against defensive tackle Jurrell Casey, who is having a tremendous season.

    The Titans’ defensive weakness is against the run; they’re 22nd in that department in terms of YPC (4.13). This seems like a good matchup for Maurice Jones-Drew, but the aging back has lacked burst this year coming off a serious leg injury that he sustained in 2012. Besides, it’s not like he has any running lanes at his disposal.

    TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Like Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson struggled throughout the season leading up to Week 9. He had failed to top 100 rushing yards in any game, and he had mustered a YPC better than 4.3 only once. He broke out of his slump last week, however, rushing for 150 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries. The Jaguars are even worse against ground attacks than the Titans are, so Johnson will look like he’s in CJ2K form yet again.

    Johnson has been a bigger factor in the passing game as well recently; he has 14 receptions in the past four contests compared to just four in the initial quartet of games. The Jaguars have to be hating this, as it’s yet another thing that their putrid back seven has to worry about. A number of players in that group are unqualified to start in this league – including Geno Hayes, Johnathan Cyprien and Josh Evans – which would explain why Jacksonville can’t tackle or stop the pass.

    Of course, it doesn’t help that the Jaguars’ defensive line can’t pressure the quarterback. Excluding the Giants, no team has fewer sacks than Jacksonville. It’s so bad that the Jaguars have registered only ONE sack in the past three games. How pathetic is that? Jake Locker, who will have all day to throw the ball, figures to have a huge outing.

    RECAP: This is a complete mismatch – as all Jacksonville games are – but I’m not going to bet on the Titans because they’ll be sleepwalking through this game. They have an extremely important matchup against the Colts in four days, so they’ll be preparing for that. If the Jaguars were competent at all, I’d pick them and even have a couple of units on them. But they’ll likely go down as the worst team in NFL history, so I’d recommend staying away from them. As I’ve been saying all year, “there’s no such thing as sharp money on the Jaguars.”

    SURVIVOR PICK: Go here for my Survivor Pick Advice later tonight for some analysis.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps like the Jaguars. I say there’s no such thing as sharp money on the Jaguars. If people really want to bet on the worst team in NFL history that is missing its top play-maker, then God bless them.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Thursday Night Football next week: Colts at Titans.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Tennessee: 59% (23,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Underdog has covered 3 of the last 4 meetings.
  • Opening Line: Titans -13.5.
  • Opening Total: 41.5.
  • Weather: .


    Week 10 NFL Pick: Titans 23, Jaguars 10
    Titans -11.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Under 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Survivor Pick (8-1)
    Jauars 29, Titans 20






    Philadelphia Eagles (4-4) at Green Bay Packers (5-3)
    Line: Eagles by 1. Total: 47.5.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (QBDK).
    Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 9): Packers -3.5.
    Sunday, Nov. 10, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Eagles.

    HATE MAIL: Another week, another stack of hate mails. These are from the comment boards:

    Walters an idiot what a p*ss move to change his mind last minute..

    See, a “p*ss move” would indicate that I put a ton of thought into it. So, I can’t be an idiot who made a “p*ss move.” I’m either an idiot or a p***y, but not both.

    I hope Lewis plays so you can make the bills your November Pick of the month and get back to your losing ways. Your blind chiefs hate may end up costing you a lot more than just a few unit bet this time.

    Oh, really? What will it cost me? What was I in danger of losing with the Bills when Thaddeus Lewis was projected to play?

    Walt has a good week then goes right back to fading the public. sad sad sad walt with a little peepee

    I hate to brag, but my friend Body Burner calls me “Big Dick Walt” for a reason. Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

    Walt has a thing for Tom Brady. How come no pic of Dalton with his shirt off?

    Because Dalton is not as sexy as Brady.

    I dislike that word, hater, but you clearly are one Walt. If you don’t call a #2 receiver starting on an NFL offense an every down player, you clearly don’t know what the Hell you’re talking about. Are you willing to say Andy Dalton has impressed you this year or are you still gonna label him a bad QB because of his two playoff losses? Are you willing to admit that statistically he’s top 10 in deep balls and top 10 in yards per attempt? I already know the answer is gonna be no to all of these, but jeez Walt, it’s time YOU get the sand out of your Vag and start respecting Cincinnati. You really should just stick to mocking and prospect rankings instead of trying to evaluate teams you don’t like.

    This is too easy, as this was written before Dalton crapped the bed against the Dolphins. I’ll let the 22-20 result speak for itself.

    I’ll say this… Your website here has achieved a great amount of success over the years [& much kudos to you for the dedication & fortune it has taken to arrive to this place]… But a note of caution… [from “FIGHT CLUB”]… “On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero”… I used to read YOU a lot, but, over time, that dynamic has shifted towards coming here to listen to the other commentators… [GURUBALL, for example]… At any given moment… & based on initiative, people [due to the fickle nature of humankind], may reserve the right to jump tracks… Keep that in mind… or DON’T [do whatever you want instead like spend all your time dissing all your regulars & talking about Brady’s haircuts & Emmitt on the Brink season “X^10”

    I don’t understand 90 percent of what this person wrote, but if this man is going to quote Fight Club, perhaps he should remember another quote: “The first rule of Fight Club is that we don’t talk about Fight Club.”

    The Bengals keep making Walter’s list of overrated teams. However, they beat one of his “underrated” teams (the Jets), by 40 points! Lol Doesn’t that seem like sort of a contradiction? The Bengals have a top 10 strength of schedule and the number 2 strength of victory in the NFl. This guy makes no sense

    I don’t think this individual understands what the words “overrated” and “underrated” mean.

    Walt, I’ve never seen somebody as bad at your job as you. Really? If you’re going to pick the Dolphins to win at least say that it’s because the Bengals are coming off a short week with an injured secondary. Don’t pretend the Dolphins are the superior team because it just makes you look like a biased idiot.

    Hey, hey, hey, there’s no doubt that I’m an idiot, but I am in no way biased.

    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Ugh, Aaron Rodgers getting injured on the first drive… Sorry, I’m going to be bitter about that for a long time. Rodgers is out 4-6 weeks with a broken collarbone, so that means Seneca Wallace will start again. Wallace was brutal Monday night, as he constantly threw behind receivers and failed to take any shots downfield. I suppose a lack of preparation can be attributed to his struggles. I guess we’ll find out this Sunday.

    The one thing that Wallace will have going for him – aside from Eddie Lacy’s tough running – is that he won’t have to deal with Chicago’s immense pressure again. Julius Peppers and Shea McClellin were monsters on Monday night, helping the Bears record five sacks. The Eagles don’t have anyone like that on the exterior, save for perhaps Trent Cole, who has been inconsistent this year. Of course, Fletcher Cox is a beast, but the interior of Green Bay’s offensive line isn’t the problem.

    I mentioned Lacy earlier… the Packers will have to ride him because he gives them their best chance at victory. The Eagles just surrendered 116 rushing yards to the Oakland running backs (Terrelle Pryor’s numbers excluded, obviously), and Lacy is a far more talented runner than Rashad Jennings, who was playing for an injured Darren McFadden.

    PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Nick Foles had his seven touchdowns at Oakland, but how legitimate was that? If it wasn’t for his horrendous performance against Dallas a few weeks ago, I feel like more Philadelphia fans would be optimistic. Instead, there’s some trepidation, and rightfully so. The Raiders mailed in that game on Sunday. They were high off an upset victory over Pittsburgh, and they spent too much time “reading the press clippings,” as head coach Dennis Allen told the media.

    The Packers’ defense, which was embarrassed Monday night, will provide more of a challenge than the Raiders. Only by default though. Green Bay couldn’t get to Josh McCown at all, who torched its secondary. Christian Ponder had success moving the chains against the Packers the week before as well. If McCown and Ponder can have solid performances against Green Bay, why can’t Foles?

    One area in which the Packers will improve is their ability to stop the run. Matt Forte ripped right through them, especially in the fourth quarter when the Bears were bleeding the clock down. A.J. Hawk and Johnny Jolly had their worst outings of the year, so they should be able to rebound. Besides, the Eagles don’t run the ball nearly as well as the Bears do. LeSean McCoy has averaged more than 3.7 yards per carry only once ever since QBDK was knocked out with his hamstring injury.

    RECAP: An angle I love to play is betting on a good team in its first game without its starting quarterback. Everyone is counting out the Packers with Rodgers gone for 4-6 weeks, but they still have many talented veterans on their roster. They’ll rally around Wallace and prove that they’re still a factor in the NFC North race.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The Eagles are now favored. I love it. Everyone is telling the Packers that they have no shot, yet Clay Matthews is returning this week. The Packers remain one of my top picks of the week.

    SUNDAY MORNING: Four of the five ESPN analysts (where does Ray Lewis keep going?) picked the Packers. Ugh. This takes some of my enthusiasm away for Green Bay.


    The Psychology. Edge: Packers.
    Everyone is doubting the Packers now with Aaron Rodgers gone.


    The Vegas. Edge: Packers.
    Why would anyone bet on Seneca Wallace?
  • Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 60% (30,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Eagles.
  • Mike McCarthy is 0-5 ATS after losing on Monday Night Football.
  • Opening Line: Packers -3.
  • Opening Total: 48.
  • Weather: .


    Week 10 NFL Pick: Packers 16, Eagles 10
    Packers +1 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
    Under 47.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Eagles 27, Eagles 13






    Buffalo Bills (3-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6)
    Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 43.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Steelers -3.5.
    Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 9): Steelers -3.
    Sunday, Nov. 10, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Bills.

    If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It’s free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. There’s no reason not to enter. Click the link to register!

    By the way, you can check out the Pick Em Leaderboard here.

    BUFFALO OFFENSE: Ugh, Thad Lewis missing last week’s game… Like I said, I’m going to be bitter about that for a long time. Lewis isn’t even a factor in this matchup because E.J. Manuel is expected to be back after missing four games with a knee injury. Manuel’s rust level is unknown, but at least he’ll have an easy matchup against the Steelers to get himself into a groove.

    If it wasn’t apparent following last week’s 55-point performance, Pittsburgh’s defense absolutely stinks. Most of the players look old and slow. The biggest problem is that the Steelers have recorded only 13 sacks on the year (only the Jaguars and Giants have fewer). They just can’t put consistent pressure on the quarterback. As a result, their secondary has been terrible. Ike Taylor, in particular, has been brutal. Ryan Clark has also declined because of age. Manuel shouldn’t have much of a problem picking apart this defensive backfield.

    Of course, the Bills will do most of their damage on the ground. C.J. Spiller was very explosive against the Chiefs. Despite aggravating his ankle twice, he rushed for 116 yards on just 12 carries. Fred Jackson will also be a threat. The Steelers won’t have any answer for those two backs; they’re 19th against the run in terms of YPC (4.1), and they just surrendered a ridiculous 198 rushing yards to the Patriots.

    PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: It’s only better by default on this side of the ball for the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger looks like he’s playing in slow motion, much like his defense. He’s constantly under duress; outside of the Dolphins and Raiders, no team has surrendered more sacks on the season than Pittsburgh. This doesn’t bode well at all for Roethlisberger, given that the Bills bring tons of heat on the quarterback with their fantastic defensive front.

    Roethlisberger had success airing it out against the Patriots on the rare occasions in which he had time in the pocket. I’m not sure if he’ll be able to duplicate that against the Bills. New England didn’t have its top cornerback, Aqib Talib, while Buffalo has its secondary intact. The Bills had injuries in their defensive backfield earlier in the year, but everyone’s back now. As a result, Buffalo has been better versus the pass in recent weeks (excluding their loss at New Orleans, but that’s just the Drew Brees factor).

    The Bills are weakest against the run. They’re ranked just 20th in that department in terms of YPC (4.12). The Steelers will definitely be able to establish Le’Veon Bell. They’ll need to, as Roethlisberger needs all of the short-yardage situations he can get.

    RECAP: The Bills are the better team, but they’re in worse shape. They played their hearts out against the Chiefs, but came up just a bit short. How are they going to muster the same energy versus the Steelers, especially with Manuel back in the lineup? Manuel is a factor in this regard because the Buffalo players may think that they don’t have to give 110 percent, given that their starting quarterback will be on the field again. Plus, Manuel could always be rusty.

    The Steelers seem like the right side to me, but I have no interest in laying points with them. This spread is right where it should be, so I don’t see any value.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I still have no feel for this game. I’d lean with the Steelers if I thought they could be trusted to win by more than a field goal.

    SUNDAY MORNING: ESPN’s Chad Millman said the sharps are all over the Bills. I don’t want to bet them because I feel like they’re going to be flat coming off an emotional loss, but it’s worth noting if you like to follow what the sharps are doing.


    The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.
    Both teams are coming off emotional losses, but Buffalo is in worse shape.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 53% (25,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bills.
  • Bills are 9-2 ATS off consecutive losses in non-divisional road underdog games since 2002.
  • Bills are 25-17 ATS against losing teams since 2006.
  • Opening Line: Steelers -4.
  • Opening Total: 43.
  • Weather: .


    Week 10 NFL Pick: Steelers 27, Bills 23
    Steelers -3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Over 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Steelers 23, Bills 10






    Oakland Raiders (3-5) at New York Giants (2-5)
    Line: Giants by 7. Total: 42.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Giants -5.5.
    Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 9): Giants -4.
    Sunday, Nov. 10, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Giants.

    I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

    Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

    1. I’d be remiss if I didn’t discuss the Richie Incognito “bullying” situation. I read up on everything and saw that Incognito and Jonathan Martin were friendly at one point. It certainly doesn’t look like they hated each other here:



    There was that profanity-laced phone call, but we have no idea about the context of that message. It just seems like Incognito simply took what he might have thought were friendly jabs at Martin (i.e. nicknaming him “Big Weirdo.”) Martin was clearly self-conscious of being a “big weirdo” – i.e. a heteroclite – so he finally snapped when the Dolphins pulled that prank on him, so he left the team and drove himself to a mental-health facility.

    I think it’s a pretty normal dynamic; one that we see far too often. Insecure people often pick on those who are weird to deflect attention from themselves. It’s natural behavior for any homoclite (normal person) to do this, especially in a male-dominant environment. Incognito is insecure for some reason, so he picked on Martin because he was an easy target.

    In the end, I think the whole thing is stupid. Incognito is a dick, but Martin is a grown man. He’s not some helpless kid. He should’ve been able to defend himself. And the fact that many Dolphin players sided with Incognito tells me that they agree.

    I only pray that this situation doesn’t spawn anti-bullying campaigns from the NFL. I don’t care what Incognito did or said; there’s no such thing as a 320-pound man getting bullied.

    But speaking of Incognito, Matvei pointed out that as a child, he resembled a famous character we both love and hate. Just imagine him with a blue hat on:



    2. The other major topic in the NFL is the Redskins’ team name. Security at the Redskins-Chargers game were concerned Sunday morning that American Indian protesters would storm the field and scalp the players and coaches. That, however, did not happen because most American Indians don’t mind the Redskins’ team name (75 percent think the name should stay, per a Sports Illustrated poll). The only individuals who seem to mind are guilt-ridden white people. I’ll have more on this in an impending Jerks of the Year entry. In the meantime, check out why the Vikings will have to change their team name next.

    3. How about changing the logo and not the name? It’s not like Daniel Snyder called them the “Blood-Thirsty Savages” or anything. Redskins should be fine. But because guilt-ridden white people are losing sleep over it, how about a compromise? Perhaps Washington can keep its team name if it uses this logo:



    Shanahan’s face looks like a tomato. He has red skin, so it fits. I’m making fun of a white person by doing this, so white people can’t possibly be offended. Wait, what’s that? The guilt-ridden Koreans have taken offense to this for no apparent reason? Ah, damn it.

    OAKLAND OFFENSE: Terrelle Pryor looked pretty brilliant earlier this season. He nearly led his team to victory in Indianapolis. He was solid against the Broncos and then followed that up with an 18-of-23, 221-yard, two-touchdown showing against the Chargers. Ever since, however, he has struggled throwing the ball. He has a whopping seven interceptions compared to just one touchdown in the past three games.

    Some may see a matchup against the Giants as exactly what the doctor ordered, but New York’s defense improved prior to the bye. They limited their previous two opponents to a combined seven offensive points. Sure, New York battled Josh Freeman and Matt Barkley in that span, but Pryor hasn’t been much better than those signal-callers from an aerial perspective.

    However, Pryor has moved the chains with his legs. He should have some success doing that again despite the expected absence of Darren McFadden. Run DMC will be missed against a ground defense that hasn’t allowed more than 67 rushing yards to opposing backs since Week 3.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: While the Raiders will likely be missing their starting running back, the Giants get one of theirs back. It’s not David Wilson, but Andre Brown is a talent player who has sorely been missed. Unlike Peyton Hillis and Brandon Jacobs (minus that inexplicable performance against the Bears), Brown will be effective on the ground and will make opposing defenses respect the rush.

    Having said that, it won’t be Brown who will be responsible for moving the chains in this contest. The Raiders are a surprising eighth versus the rush in terms of YPC (3.68). Their primary concern is stopping the pass, especially after letting Nick Foles throw for a record-tying seven touchdowns. Foles was flawless, so what’s a superior quarterback going to be able to do with more weapons at his disposal?

    The one hope for Oakland is to applying heavy pressure on Eli Manning. I’m not sure what happened to the Raiders’ pass rush last week, but they’ll need it back. The Giants have a crappy offensive line, though perhaps the coaching staff got the unit’s act together during the bye.

    RECAP: This spread is way too high. I expect the Giants to be better coming off their bye, but this line is a complete overreaction to what happened last week. The Raiders simply had a stinker. Most teams have one once in a while. Before that, they beat the Steelers, played the Chiefs closely and demolished the Chargers. Is one ugly loss supposed to negate all of that?

    I don’t completely trust Pryor, but offensive coordinator Greg Olson is a brilliant offensive mind who will get his quarterback’s act together. This should be a close game, so I’m taking the Raiders for two units.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m still shocked that the Giants are favored by this much. They stink! Keeping the Raiders with two units.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
    A good amount of action on the host.
  • Percentage of money on New York: 71% (40,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Raiders.
  • Giants are 19-27 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more the previous 46 instances.
  • Opening Line: Giants -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 42.
  • Weather: .


    Week 10 NFL Pick: Giants 20, Raiders 17
    Raiders +7 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
    Under 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Giants 24, Raiders 20




    St. Louis Rams (3-6) at Indianapolis Colts (6-2)
    Line: Colts by 9. Total: 43.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Colts -12.
    Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 9): Colts -7.5.
    Sunday, Nov. 10, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Colts.

    If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Three years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

    As for 2012, I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that.

    A man named Mark Pepe e-mailed me. I eventually convinced him to call someone in the Eagles’ organization to ask for Riley Cooper. I also did the same thing to another spammer by pretending to be Aaron Hernandez. Check out the Spam Mails page to see it.

    INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts didn’t look like they had much of an offense in the first three quarters of the Sunday night game. They dealt with major problems out of the slot position, while pass protection was a huge issue. The Texans swarmed Andrew Luck, limiting him to just three completions in the first half.

    If Houston had an easy time getting to Luck, what’s going to happen in this contest? The Rams have a ferocious defensive front, led by Chris Long and Robert Quinn. As a whole, they’ve collected 15 sacks in the past three games. In fact, no team has more sacks than St. Louis does over the past four weeks. Without having to worry about a running game – Trent Richardson sucks – St. Louis will be able to tee off on Luck, who won’t have his primary receiver as a safety valve.

    Having said all of that, the Colts will still have success scoring points. Luck is just that good. He’ll scramble out of trouble and find T.Y. Hilton downfield for a couple of big gains. The Rams have a shaky secondary, so Hilton will definitely be able to get behind them on a couple of occasions.

    ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: The Colts just spent a first-round pick to obtain their running back, yet the Rams have the superior player at the position despite only using a fifth-rounder on him. Zac Stacy is a beast. He’s an extremely tough runner with good burst. He also provides decent pass-catching ability. He’s a dangerous, every-down player who is single-handedly keeping the Rams’ scoring attack afloat.

    Stacy will pick up right where he left off. The Colts just surrendered 117 rushing yards to Houston’s banged-up running back corps, so Stacy should be able to eclipse that total. Indianapolis will undoubtedly stack the line of scrimmage and sell out to stop Stacy, but the Titans tried the same strategy to no avail.

    It’s obviously important for Stacy to have a big game because Kellen Clemens playing on the road in long-yardage situations is not a formula for success. Clemens isn’t terrible when he gets to operate in short yardage, but asking him to convert third-and-longs would be disastrous. Even still, I’m sure Clemens will be good for at least one turnover; perhaps two. That number would be much higher if Clemens didn’t have Stacy at his disposal.

    RECAP: The Colts aren’t made to blow teams out, so this spread is too high. Besides, they have a much more important game against the Titans in just four days. They’re coming off an emotional victory over Houston, so they figure to be flat.

    If I had any faith in Clemens, this would be a huge play on the Rams. I just can’t bring myself to bet money on him in a hostile environment. I’m picking St. Louis to cover, but I don’t want any action on this game.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: My opinion remains the same. Even though the sharps love the Rams, I can’t stomach betting any money on Kellen Clemens.


    The Psychology. Edge: Rams.
    The Colts just mustered a tremendous comeback with an emotional victory.


    The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
    A decent lean on the host.
  • Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 67% (32,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Jeff Fisher is 38-23 ATS as an underdog since 2006.
  • Andrew Luck is 9-3 ATS at home.
  • Opening Line: Colts -11.5.
  • Opening Total: 43.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 10 NFL Pick: Colts 24, Rams 17
    Rams +9 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Under 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Rams 38, Colts 8




    Seattle Seahawks (8-1) at Atlanta Falcons (2-6)
    Line: Seahawks by 4.5. Total: 47.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -7.
    Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 9): Seahawks -3.
    Sunday, Nov. 10, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

    Video of the Week: I asked my friends on Facebook to send me funny videos for the Video of the Week section. This one is from Paul D. It’s entitled Fantasy Football Stereotypes. Chances are you have many of these in your leagues. I unfortunately deal with too many crappy fantasy traders. I was just offered Eddie Royal and Emmanuel Sanders for Eddie Lacy! Hmm…

    SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks have been playing like crap lately. There are three reasons for this…

    Reason No. 1: The offensive line hasn’t been able to block anyone. Left tackle Paul McQuistan, right guard J.R. Sweezy and right tackle Michael Bowie have all acted like human turnstiles. Russell Wilson, as a consequence, has way too much pressure in his face every week. The Falcons don’t have much of a pass rush, but the same could’ve been said about the Buccaneers last week. Atlanta and Tampa are actually just one apart in the sack column, so I like Osi Umenyiora’s matchup against McQuistan. Jonathan Babineaux should also be able to do some damage in the interior.

    Reason No. 2: Sidney Rice was knocked in the early stages of the Monday night victory with a season-ending injury. Rice wasn’t nearly as effective as he once was with the Vikings, but he still happened to be an important part of the offense. Now, Wilson only has one legitimate receiver to throw to in Golden Tate.

    Despite these two issues, Seattle still figures to be able to move the chains in this contest. Marshawn Lynch has a great matchup, after all, given that the Falcons are 31st against the run in terms of YPC (4.74). Wilson will also pick up big chunks of yardage with his legs, as he always does.

    ATLANTA OFFENSE: Reason No. 3: The Seahawks have been horrific against the run the past two weeks. It’s one thing to struggle to bring down Zac Stacy, but Daryl Richardson and Mike James also looked like Pro Bowlers in the same span. I don’t know what happened to Red Bryant, but he looks like he’s been asleep the previous couple of games following a strong start to his 2013 campaign. Linebacker K.J. Wright and safety Earl Thomas have also struggled in run support.

    It might sound crazy to say this, but Steven Jackson could actually have a good game. He’s now a few weeks removed from his injury, and if Richardson and James can have success against Seattle’s weakened stop unit, why can’t Jackson?

    Having Jackson as a legitimate threat coming out of the backfield would be a huge boost to Matt Ryan, who has thrown seven interceptions in the past two games. Ryan did this against a couple of tough defenses, but it doesn’t get any easier against Richard Sherman and company. And it’s not just the secondary he’ll have to worry about; Seattle’s fierce pass rush will likely have its way with Atlanta’s patchwork offensive line.

    RECAP: I feel like the rumors of the Falcons’ demise have been greatly exaggerated. They crushed the Buccaneers three weeks ago. Sure, they looked helpless against the Cardinals, but Arizona is very strong at home. After that, they hung tough at Carolina before falling apart late in the second half. The 34-10 result is not at all indicative of how close that game was; it was 17-10 entering the fourth quarter.

    The Falcons are not a good team, but they’re not terrible either. They play well at home, and I’m expecting a much better effort against the Seahawks, who typically struggle on the road, especially in early starts. Seattle is not playing well at all either, and the team could be flat following a tremendous comeback last week.

    To top it off, here’s a powerful trend to consider that favors the Falcons: Underdogs coming off a loss by 24 or more as underdogs are 75-35 against the spread dating back to 1989. This applied to the Jets last week.

    Everyone is betting the Seahawks, but the sharps are on the home dog. This spread opened at +6.5, but despite tons of action on Seattle, the line has dropped to +6. I’m with the sharps, as I really like this spot for the Falcons. This will be a three-unit play.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I was set to drop my units from three to two because of the line moving to +4.5 (or +4 in some places), but then I saw that the Seahawks will be missing starting center Max Unger and stud defensive lineman Red Bryant. I’ll keep this at three units for that reason. Vegas, by the way, has a huge liability on the Seahawks. They need the Falcons to cover.

    SUNDAY MORNING: Roddy White is active, while the Seahawks have tons of injuries. This spread has sunk to +3.5, but you can still find it at +4.5 on Bovada.


    The Psychology. Edge: Falcons.
    The Seahawks just mustered a tremendous coming and an emotional overtime victory.


    The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
    No surprise that people love the Seahawks.
  • Percentage of money on Seattle: 70% (36,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Falcons.
  • Seahawks are 19-32 ATS on the road since 2006 if they’re not coming off an away loss.
  • Matt Ryan is 26-16 ATS at home.
  • Mike Smith is 19-10 ATS after a loss.
  • Opening Line: Seahawks -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 46.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 10 NFL Pick: Seahawks 27, Falcons 24
    Falcons +4.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
    Over 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Seahawks 33, Falcons 10




    Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) at Baltimore Ravens (3-5)
    Line: Bengals by 1. Total: 44.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
    Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 9): Ravens -4.
    Sunday, Nov. 10, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Ravens.

    The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts is back for a second season! As with everything else though, I’m moving it to its own separate page. See what’s going on this week with this picture here:



    BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Considering how bad the Ravens’ offensive line has been, they have to be thrilled that they don’t have to deal with Geno Atkins this week. Atkins, of course, tore his ACL on Thursday. Not only was he the best defender on Cincinnati’s stop unit; he was one of the top players in the NFL at any position. His absence was felt last week, as 2012 third-rounder Brandon Thompson struggled as a replacement.

    The issues the Ravens have on their defensive line are mostly in the interior, so the downgrade from Atkins to Thompson will obviously be huge. Besides, the Dolphins moved the ball pretty well on Cincinnati despite their front-line issues, so why can’t Baltimore do the same thing? Joe Flacco struggled to get anything going last week, but things will be much easier in this contest. Not only will he have less pressure in his face; he also won’t have to worry about Joe Haden smothering Torrey Smith again. The Bengals don’t have anyone to cover Smith; Leon Hall, who tore his Achilles again, is yet another key defender that Cincinnati misses right now.

    Despite Atkins’ absence, however, I wouldn’t expect the Ravens to suddenly establish a strong running game. Ray Rice will have more success than last week, but there is just something broken with Baltimore’s blocking. It’s very disconcerting that the coaching staff couldn’t fix this issue during the bye. It’ll have to be addressed in the offseason.

    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals had their own issues in terms of scoring last week. Andy Dalton entered the Thursday night affair on a hot streak, but cooled down immensely, committing four turnovers. It won’t get any easier for Dalton, who has to go up against a Baltimore defense that still ranks near the top in several categories.

    One of these categories is the pass rush. Only five teams have recorded more sacks than the Ravens this year. Both Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil have been great when trying to get to the quarterback. They have huge advantages over the Cincinnati tackles. With Andrew Whitworth struggling to return from a knee injury – he didn’t practice Wednesday – Suggs and Dumervil figure to dominate backup Anthony Collins and Andre Smith, who hasn’t been playing well in recent weeks following a strong start.

    Another concern for the Bengals is Giovani Bernard. The explosive back was having a big game against the Dolphins before leaving with bruised ribs. He practiced Wednesday, but it remains to be seen if he’ll limited or not. Besides, it’ll be difficult for Bernard and BenJarvus Green-Ellis to traverse Baltimore’s seventh-ranked ground defense (in terms of YPC; 3.68).

    Having said all of this, Cincinnati will still have some success moving the chains. Dalton has a ton of weapons, so he’ll complete several deep passes to A.J. Green and Marvin Jones. The main weakness of Baltimore’s defense is the safety position, so Dalton will be able to expose that liability.

    RECAP: I said last week that I’d postpone my October NFL Pick of the Month after canceling it due to the Buffalo quarterback situation. Well, I’m going to use it now. The Ravens are my October NFL Pick of the Month. Here’s why…

    1. This is a classic overrated-underrated situation. The Bengals are 6-3, but they’re not as good as their record indicates. They’ve struggled immensely on the road. They lost at Chicago and even at Cleveland. They had trouble putting the Bills away in Thaddeus Lewis’ first start, and they needed a horrible punt by the Lions to win that contest. And last week, they lost to the Dolphins in overtime. Oh, and aside from the Miami defeat, all of this happened with Atkins, Hall and Whitworth in the lineup. The Bengals are missing three of their top-five players. Snap out of being mesmerized by “6-3” and think about that for a second.

    The Ravens, meanwhile, aren’t nearly as bad as their record indicates. They’re coming off a loss in Cleveland, but Cincinnati got tripped up there as well. They won at Miami, which the Bengals couldn’t do. Since the opener, all of their defeats have been by six or fewer points. They are not as bad as the typical 3-5 squad.

    2. Baltimore has a strong homefield advantage. They’re a ridiculous 25-4 as hosts since 2010. Two of the four defeats have been to the rival Steelers, who know how to play in Baltimore, while the others have been to Peyton Manning last year and Aaron Rodgers this season. Last time I checked, Andy Dalton was no Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers.

    In terms of the line, the Ravens have covered every single home contest this year, beating the spread by an average of eight points. In fact, they’re 17-7 against the spread as a home underdog or favorite of 1-7 points with Joe Flacco.

    3. I don’t aree with this spread at all. I have the Bengals 10th in my NFL Power Rankings. The Ravens are 15th. Thus, the natural line should be Ravens -2.5. I bumped the spread up 1.5 points because Baltimore is awesome at home, while Cincinnati struggles on the road. Plus, there were some situational factors. In the end, we’re getting 5.5 points of value with Baltimore.

    4. This is a must-win for the Ravens. Despite being 3-5, they’re still in it. A win here would promote them to 4-5, putting them just one game back of the second wild-card team (Jets, 5-4). They’d also be just two games back of Cincinnati with a game remaining against them. A loss, however, would put them in a huge hole.

    5. The sharps are all over the Ravens. In fact, aside from Redskins -2, Cincinnati -1.5 happens to be the top public pick of this week’s slate. Everyone is betting on the Bengals like it’s free money, yet the spread has dropped from -2.5 to -1.5 (it’s even -1 at Pinnacle!) I’m not sure what Cincinnati did to deserve this confidence, especially considering that three of its better players won’t be on the field.

    6. There are two strong trends that favor Baltimore. Teams that lose on the road in overtime (Bengals) are 27-61 against the spread the following week as long as they’re not away dogs. I’m not a fan of trends unless they can be explained. This one is obvious. Going down in an extra session can be demoralizing, so teams obviously struggle if they have to travel.

    Also, home underdogs (Ravens) coming off losses as road favorites are 46-24 against the spread dating back to 1989. The reasoning behind this is that teams were laying points on the road for a reason. They were perceived as being at least good. People tend to bet on road favorites – as they did with Baltimore last week – and after getting burned, they’ll fade that same team if it happens to be a home underdog because, again, people tend to bet on road favorites.

    7. Speaking of home underdogs, they are 27-22 against the spread this season, but they’re 24-13 ATS if the poisonous teams I discussed above are excluded.

    Once again, this is my October NFL Pick of the Month. There will be a November NFL Pick of the Month later on – unless more quarterbacks get injured.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Bob Scucci told ESPN’s Chad Millman that many sharps are betting the “full limit” on the Ravens. That’s music to my ears. Baltimore remains my NFL Pick of the Month.

    SUNDAY MORNING: Go Ravens!


    The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.
    Baltimore’s season is on the line here.


    The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
    The public loves the Bengals. The reason this percentage isn’t higher is because the sharps are pounding the hell out of the Ravens.
  • Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 57% (18,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • History: Ravens have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
  • Bengals are 14-29 ATS as a favorite since 2007.
  • Andy Dalton is 1-4 ATS as a favorite coming off a loss.
  • Ravens are 17-7 ATS in November home games since 2000.
  • Ravens are 17-7 ATS at home as an underdog or favorite of 1-7 points with Joe Flacco.
  • Opening Line: Bengals -2.5.
  • Opening Total: 42.
  • Weather: .


    Week 10 NFL Pick: Ravens 26, Bengals 20
    Ravens +1 (7 Units – October NFL Pick of the Month) — Correct; +$700
    Over 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Ravens 20, Bengals 17




    Detroit Lions (5-3) at Chicago Bears (5-3)
    Line: Bears by 2. Total: 52.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Lions -2.
    Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 9): Bears -2.
    Sunday, Nov. 10, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: None.

    This summer, I ran a Mafia game on the Web site called Penn State Sex Scandal Mafia. You can click the link to read the introduction and see the list of players. I’ll add to this page throughout the season, listing roles and talking about funny things that happened during the game.

    Why am I doing this? Well, I wanted to post this on the main section of this Web site so that the mainstream media people who have sand in their vages will pick up on this and complain that I’m being insensitive.

    Oh, and by the way, we have other Mafia games going on right now in the Mafia Forum. Mafia is a blast, so come and join the fun.

    CHICAGO OFFENSE: Is it going to be Jay Cutler or Josh McCown? Here’s a better question: Does it matter? McCown was unreal against the Packers. He made so many impressive passes, especially while falling down. McCown has been a journeyman throughout his extensive career, but he’s finally putting it together now. He’s always had some skills, but never could get the mental aspect of quarterbacking down until now. McCown credited Kurt Warner with teaching him how to be a professional quarterback during the time the two spent together in Arizona.

    It doesn’t hurt that McCown has a killer supporting cast. The two tall receivers are difficult to guard, so I don’t see Detroit’s beleaguered cornerbacking group handling them. Matt Forte is also dangerous coming out of the backfield. Detroit defends the run well, but Forte will be a factor as a pass-catcher, as always.

    What’s really helped McCown is a strong offensive line that barely let any Packers through Monday night. Only two teams have allowed fewer sacks than Chicago has this season, and one of them – the Broncos – is just there because Peyton Manning releases the ball so quickly. The Lions have a forceful defensive front, but McCown (or Cutler) should stay clean throughout the afternoon.

    DETROIT OFFENSE: McCown was unexpectedly great Monday night, but the biggest surprise we saw out of the Bears was how well the pass rush performed. Chicago had just 10 sacks going into evening, yet it came away with five more sacks. Shea McClellin notched three. Julius Peppers had one, but he was the primary catalyst. This was huge for the Bears going forward because Peppers hadn’t played very well all season. Seeing him emerge gives Chicago hope for the second half of the year.

    That being said, the Bears may not have as much success getting to Matthew Stafford. Remember how I said two teams have allowed fewer sacks than Chicago? Well, the other one is Detroit. The Lions have allowed 10 sacks all year, as they’ve done a terrific job of keeping Stafford clean. As a result, Stafford will have way more time than Seeneca Wallace did Monday night. The Bears’ struggling secondary won’t have any sort of answer for Calvin Johnson.

    Chicago may have done a good job of fixing its pass rush during the bye, the team still has immense problems stopping the run. Even when stacking the box against the Packers, Eddie Lacy and James Starks were able to rip off big gains. Reggie Bush should have similar success.

    RECAP: There is no spread posted on this game yet, so check back later in the week. I’m leaning toward the Bears for now.

    FRIDAY UPDATE: The Bears, favored by one, have announced that Cutler will play. This actually makes me like the Lions a bit. Chicago will know it won’t have to give 110 percent again with Cutler back at the helm. Also, I feel like Cutler is coming back too early. He may not be 100 percent. The Bears probably should’ve given him one more week off.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ll pass on this. I’d still lean toward the Lions, but there are better sides.

    SUNDAY MORNING: ESPN’s Chad Millman said the Lions are a sharp play today. I’d consider placing a unit on them, but it’s a bit too late to change things.


    The Psychology. Edge: Lions.
    The Bears will be relaxed with Cutler back.


    The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
    Slight lean on the visitor.
  • Percentage of money on Detroit: 60% (21,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: TBA.
  • History: Bears have won 14 of the last 18 meetings.
  • Bears are 29-17 ATS in November since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Pick.
  • Opening Total: 52.
  • Weather: .


    Week 10 NFL Pick: Lions 30, Bears 27
    Lions +2 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Over 52 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Lions 21, Bears 19



    Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games
    Carolina�at�San Francisco, Denver�at�San Diego, Houston�at�Arizona, Dallas�at�New Orleans, Miami�at�Tampa Bay



    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games



    NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


    2024 NFL Mock Draft - Feb. 21


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    NFL Picks - Feb. 12




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    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
    2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
    2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
    2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
    2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
    2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
    2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
    2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
    2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
    2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
    2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
    2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
    2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
    2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
    2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
    2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
    2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
    2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
    2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
    2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
    2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
    2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
    2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
    2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
    2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
    2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
    2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
    2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
    2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
    2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
    2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
    2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
    2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
    2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
    2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
    2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
    2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
    2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
    2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
    2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
    2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
    2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,420-3,152-195, 52.1% (+$21,170)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,106-983-56 (52.9%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 549-485-25 (53.1%)
    Career Over-Under: 2,853-2,829-74 (50.3%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-34-1 (57.5t%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-9
    Bears: 11-4
    Bucs: 6-11
    49ers: 10-7
    Eagles: 7-7
    Lions: 9-8
    Falcons: 8-9
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 5-12
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 8-9
    Redskins: 14-3
    Vikings: 6-9
    Saints: 10-7
    Seahawks: 7-9
    Bills: 9-7
    Bengals: 12-5
    Colts: 7-10
    Broncos: 9-6
    Dolphins: 6-11
    Browns: 11-5
    Jaguars: 13-4
    Chargers: 8-9
    Jets: 8-9
    Ravens: 11-6
    Texans: 5-12
    Chiefs: 5-10
    Patriots: 7-9
    Steelers: 11-6
    Titans: 9-8
    Raiders: 6-9
    Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)
    2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)
    2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)
    2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
    2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)
    2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)
    Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)
    Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
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    2013 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2014 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2015 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2016 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2017 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2018 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2019 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2020 Season:
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    Super Bowl LV Pick

    2021 Season:
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    2022 Season:
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    2023 Season:
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