NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2013

NFL Picks (Preseason 2013): 10-6 (+$720)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2013): 4-11-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2013): 6-10 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2013): 9-6-1 (+$20)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2013): 11-4 (+$870)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2013): 8-6 (+$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2013): 4-11 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2013): 6-9 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2013): 8-5 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2013): 5-8 (-$280)

NFL Picks (2013): 71-76-1 (+$840)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 11, 5:35 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 10 NFL Picks – Early Games

Carolina Panthers (5-3) at San Francisco 49ers (6-2)
Line: 49ers by 5.5. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: 49ers -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 9): 49ers -10.
Sunday, Nov. 10, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

If you haven’t made your Week 9 selection in the WalterFootball.com 2013 NFL Survivor Pool, make sure you do so. There are 196 players still remaining out of the original 2,580. The Saints knocked out a bunch of people last week.

To see a report of how many teams are being picked for survivor this week, click here.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Everyone is praising Cam Newton right now. He and the Panthers are blowing everyone out, all while he arrogantly pretends to rip open his jersey in Superman-type fashion. I’m not sure Superman would ever boast like that, but whatever.

I’m not buying Newton completely. He has torched inferior competition, but hasn’t done anything of note against complex defenses this year. Back when Seattle’s stop unit was playing well, the Panthers mustered only seven points at home. In the only other matchup versus a top defense, the Panthers scored just six at Arizona. Newton was a bit careless last week, firing two dumb interceptions. If he’s cocky heading into this contest, he’s in for a rude awakening versus the 49ers, who have been dominant against aerial attacks ever since benching (and subsequently cutting) Nnamdi Asomugha.

Newton will run around and do some stuff, but the 49ers should be able to handle his limited weapons. They’ll also do a good job of stopping the rush; they rank 12th in that department in terms of YPC (3.93).

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers were stagnant offensively for a while back when Vernon Davis was injured. He returned and provided a big boost, and now Mario Manningham figures to do the same thing. Manningham was activated from the PUP list and is expected to make his 2013 debut this week. Manningham will do something Anquan Boldin can’t do, and that’s stretch the defense with his downfield ability.

This will obviously open up lots more running room for Frank Gore. This is definitely needed, as Carolina ranks ninth against the run in terms of YPC (3.82). It’s worth noting though that this number could be a bit skewed, as the Panthers haven’t really had to stop a strong rushing attack since they gave up 136 yards on the ground to the Bills back in Week 2. They took on Adrian Peterson in Week 6, but they were so far ahead that Peterson barely ran. The same thing happened to Zac Stacy and the Rams the following Sunday.

If Gore is at least somewhat of a threat, it’ll make life even easier for Colin Kaepernick, who has taken just five sacks in the previous four games. The Panthers put a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but they obviously won’t have as much success versus San Francisco’s stalwart front.

RECAP: I love the 49ers this week. It’s not on a Pick of the Month level, but perhaps one step below that. Here’s why:

1. I love betting on great teams coming off byes. They tend to have a cover rate of about 70 percent. Great teams take full advantage of their week off. There’s no doubt that this defense has been breaking down every single snap of Newton’s in an attempt to figure out how to stop him. The offense, meanwhile, will know how to dissect Carolina’s solid stop unit.

2. The Panthers are a bit overrated. They’ve beaten up on crap competition, and now everyone is singing their praises. But what happened in their 22-6 loss at Arizona back in Week 5? Why are they absolved from that after victories over the 1-7 Vikings, 3-5 Rams, 0-8 Buccaneers and 2-6 Falcons? I don’t think this line is nearly high enough. I made the 49ers 10-point favorites, a number which is enhanced by the bye and other situations.

3. One such situation is San Francisco’s strong homefield advantage. The 49ers are 12-5 against the spread as favorites of 3.5 or more under Jim Harbaugh. They’ve won those contests by an average score of 26-14.

4. There’s a great trend going against the Panthers. Teams coming off big victories as large favorites (-7 or more) in which they won the turnover margin are 26-69 against the spread the following week.

Again, I love the 49ers this week. They’re a five-unit play for me.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is the one public side I’m on, but the sharps aren’t always right. This reminds me of when the 49ers were favored over the Texans about a month ago. The sharps were on Houston, but San Francisco crushed Houston. I had five units on the 49ers in that game, so let’s hope history repeats itself.

SUNDAY MORNING: ESPN’s Chad Millman told Colin Cowherd that the sharps are on the 49ers. “It’s time to sell high on the Panthers,” he said. The Panthers are this year’s “fly-swatter” team; they’ve crushed crap competition, but the last time they battled a quality team, the Cardinals destroyed them in Arizona.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Lots of money on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 75% (35,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

49ers are 12-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+ under Jim Harbaugh.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: 49ers 26, Panthers 13
49ers -5.5 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Panthers 10, 49ers 9

Houston Texans (2-6) at Arizona Cardinals (4-4)
Line: Cardinals by 3. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 9): Cardinals -3.
Sunday, Nov. 10, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

If you didn’t catch it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 6, Episode 9 has been posted – How Peter King led the charge to change the Redskins name. Meanwhile, groups are offended by other team names.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Case Keenum’s performance Sunday night was highly unexpected, to say the least. Looking like Tony Romo, he took successful deep shots and scrambled around a bit to avoid pressure. And like Romo, he saw his team choke away a big lead.

Keenum faces a tough challenge this week. Arizona’s defense, which was good to begin with, has been much better ever since inside linebacker Daryl Washington returned from his suspension. Washington is a well-rounded player, but excels most in blitzing. That would explain why the Cardinals have 16 sacks in their previous four games compared to the seven in the four contests without Washington. Arizona will be able to put plenty of pressure on Keenum, who won’t have the luxury of airing it out to Andre Johnson this week because Johnson will have to deal with Patrick Peterson’s great coverage.

Keenum will have to focus on getting the ball to DeAndre Hopkins and Garrett Graham. In an ideal situation, he’d be able to just rely on the strong running ability of Arian Foster and Ben Tate, but his two backs are banged up. Foster may not even play, while Tate looks like a shell of his former self because of his rib injuries. Besides, even if Foster and Tate were healthy, they’d have trouble getting anything versus a Cardinal defense that’s ranked fifth in run defense in terms of YPC.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: With Keenum being challenged, it’ll be up to Houston’s defense to keep the team in the game. Fortunately for the Texans, they have a very favorable matchup on this side of the ball.

Houston put a ton of pressure on Andrew Luck on Sunday night. The team registered four sacks, but that number isn’t even close to being indicative of how much heat Luck felt in that contest. If the Texans could get past Indianapolis’ front, imagine what they’ll do to the Cardinals’ offensive line, which is even worse. Not only that, but Carson Palmer is much more immobile compared to Luck.

Speaking of Palmer, he has committed two or more turnovers in six of eight games this season. That rate has a chance of decreasing for two reasons, however. First, Larry Fitzgerald, who has been banged up, has had plenty of time to heal up. Second, Andre Ellington should see an expanded role going forward. Ellington can’t be an every-down back, but he’s an electrifying play-maker who can go the distance any time he touches the ball. Having Fitzgerald at full strength and Ellington in more of a full-time role should limit Palmer’s turnovers.

RECAP: The Texans just lost their Super Bowl and won’t have their head coach, so I’d normally go with the Cardinals. However, that won’t be the case here. I feel like there could be a renewed sense of optimism with Houston because the team seems to have found an answer at the quarterback position. It’s way too early to know if that’s the case for sure, but the Texans may feel that way. I still think the Cardinals are the right side, but I’m not going to bet on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: My opinion hasn’t changed at all. No units on the Cardinals.

The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.

Sunday night was Houston’s Super Bowl. Not only did they lose; they are playing without Gary Kubiak.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 54% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Texans are 35-19 ATS after two or more consecutive losses (8-5 ATS as favorites).

Cardinals are 21-9 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Cardinals -3.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Dome.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Cardinals 17, Texans 13
Cardinals -3 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Under 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cardinals 27, Texans 24

Denver Broncos (7-1) at San Diego Chargers (4-4)
Line: Broncos by 7. Total: 57.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 9): Broncos -6.
Sunday, Nov. 10, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for Nov. 4, 2013 is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Jerk-or-Treaters.

DENVER OFFENSE: I’m not sure how someone has two sprained ankles at the same time, but that’s what apparently hindered Peyton Manning beginning in the Jacksonville game. He didn’t look like himself following that contest, so maybe he used the bye week to heal these nagging injuries. Or, perhaps he hasn’t fully recovered and will continue to flutter balls downfield. I suppose we won’t know until Sunday afternoon.

The Chargers will be praying that Manning is still hampered because that’s their only hope of stopping him. Their secondary stinks, as it happens to be ranked dead last against aerial attacks in terms of YPA (8.51). The pass rush is inconsistent, but the cornerbacks are the main culprit. No player at that position on the roster can cover. It’s embarrassing.

San Diego isn’t much better versus the run, ranking 29th in that department in terms of YPC (4.65). The Broncos love mixing in some rushing plays with Knowshon Moreno, and it happens to be effective because opposing teams are so focused on stopping Manning.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: If Manning hasn’t recovered from his ankle sprains, you could argue that Philip Rivers is the superior quarterback in this matchup. I never would have envisioned myself saying that before the season began, but Rivers has improved tremendously under the tutelage of Mike McCoy and Ken Whisnehunt.

Unfortunately for the Chargers, Denver’s defense has improved as well recently, thanks to the return of Von Miller. The Broncos averaged 2.8 sacks per game without Miller and 3.5 with him, despite the fact that the two quarterbacks Denver has battled since Miller’s return have both been mobile (Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin). Rivers can’t move at all, but he’s protected by a bolstered offensive line that is tied with the Bears for the third-fewest sacks allowed.

Upgraded coaching and superior blocking are two reasons why Rivers’ play has been better this season. A third has been an improved arsenal. Keenan Allen has emerged as a legitimate No. 1 receiver despite being a third-round rookie, while Danny Woodhead is the safety valve Rivers has lacked since Darren Sproles defected for New Orleans. The running game is still iffy, but the Chargers should be able to move the chains against a Denver secondary that hasn’t been very good this season.

RECAP: As I wrote earlier, I love picking great teams coming off byes. On the flip side, teams that have to travel following overtime losses struggle. Denver is set up for a great play… except that its head coach isn’t here. It’s unclear how much of an impact John Fox’s absence will have on the Broncos, but I can’t bet on them until we know for sure. For all we know, they could put together a terrible game plan that’ll allow the Chargers to win. There are tons of beaches for Jack Del Rio to relax on in San Diego, after all.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Once again, I’d like the Broncos a lot if they had their head coach. I received an e-mail from someone asking if Denver would be immune to something like this because Peyton Manning essentially acts like a coach. Well, many said the same thing about Drew Brees last year, yet the Saints couldn’t really function without Sean Payton.

The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.

The Broncos have bigger fish to fry with the Chiefs, Patriots and Chiefs coming up, but it’s not like they will completely look past a divisonal opponent. However, this game definitely means more to San Diego.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

No surprise where the public is going with this.

Percentage of money on Denver: 80% (35,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Broncos have won the last 3 meetings.

Peyton Manning is 36-24 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.

Opening Line: Broncos -7.

Opening Total: 56.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Broncos 38, Chargers 27
Broncos -7 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 57 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Broncos 28, Chargers 20

Dallas Cowboys (5-4) at New Orleans Saints (6-2)
Line: Saints by 6. Total: 53.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 9): Saints -8.5.
Sunday, Nov. 10, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Saints.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

I added a second fake account this year – Vivian Williamson. This is based off of Miss Vivian, a security guard at the Philadelphia International Airport, whom I’ve written about in Jerks of the Week (click the link to read about her).

Unfortunately, some a**holes with no sense of humor decided to flag Miss Vivian as a troller, so I had to make a new account. Kevin Reilly has been born!

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The NFL TV analysts are usually inept, but they were particularly bad this week in terms of discussing the Saints. All of them said that they were disappointed in New Orleans for not being able to win outdoors, but not one of them mentioned the fact that Darren Sproles suffered a concussion on the first drive of the game. I’ve written this many times, and I’ll write it again: The toughest thing for coaches to do is to make in-game adjustments to key injuries. Sproles’ departure was huge, as it changed New Orleans’ entire offensive approach – and I’m saying this as someone who bet heavily on the Jets.

The good news for the Saints is that Sproles practiced fully on Wednesday. He’s been cleared to play, which is huge because he’s such a big part of the Saints’ defense. He’ll help Sean Payton devise a strong game plan against Dallas’ pathetic pass defense, which is renowned for being one of the league’s worst. They nearly surrendered the single-game receiving record to Calvin Johnson and then let Christian Ponder look pretty competent. How are they going to deal with Jimmy Graham while worrying about Sproles leaking out of the backfield?

It’s also worth noting that the Cowboys are pretty dreadful against the run. They’ve permitted 111 rushing yards or more to four of their previous five opponents, and they have allowed a YPC of 5.02 the past four weeks. No team has done worse in that department during that span, save for the Falcons.

DALLAS OFFENSE: I still can’t believe the Cowboys ran the ball just four times with DeMarco Murray last week. How does that happen? I know the Vikings are stronger versus the rush than the pass, but you have to be able to make the other team respect the ground attack at least a little bit.

The Cowboys will want Murray to handle the rock at least 25 times in this contest. New Orleans’ primary defensive weakness is stopping the rush; the team is dead last in that department in terms of YPC (4.76). Chris Ivory bulldozed this defense last week, for crying out loud. Murray is much better than Ivory, so he should have a huge outing if Dallas’ coaching staff lets him.

Murray will have to get going because Dallas’ pass protection has been shoddy the past two weeks. Veteran guard Brian Waters, who solidified the offensive front ever since being signed in September, has been knocked out with a season-ending injury. The Saints bring a tremendous pass rush now, thanks to Rob Ryan, so they’ll easily squeeze by the Cowboys’ line and get to Tony Romo, who won’t have much time to find his receivers downfield.

RECAP: Speaking of Ryan, don’t you think he might have a great game plan set up for his old team? There’s no doubt that he has provided the Saints with great insight on how to stop Romo. That’s one reason I like the Saints a bit. The other is the great homefield advantage. New Orleans is unstoppable at home, and I feel like this spread isn’t as high as it should be because of last week’s Saints’ loss.

I’m going with New Orleans for one unit here. It would be 2-3, but I have some reservations about fading the Cowboys in the role of a large underdog. Tony Romo seems to excel in those situations (8-4 ATS as an underdog of four or more).

FINAL THOUGHTS: Still one unit on the Saints. Nothing has changed for me.

SUNDAY MORNING: ESPN’s Chad Millman said the sharps are split on this game, so don’t be afraid to pick the Saints despite the betting percentage below.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

A decent lean on the host.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 67% (6,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Cowboys are 18-8 ATS as an underdog since 2009.

Saints are 30-13 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Saints are 10-3 ATS in night home games in the Drew Brees era.

Drew Brees is 24-14 ATS after a loss with the Saints (8-3 ATS as an underdog).

Sean Payton is 10-5 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Saints -6.5.

Opening Total: 52.

Weather: Dome.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Saints 41, Cowboys 30
Saints -6 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 53.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 49, Cowboys 17

Miami Dolphins (4-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-8)
Line: Dolphins by 2.5. Total: 40.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 9): Buccaneers -1.
Monday, Nov. 11, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, annoying guys like Charles Davis and senile guys like Bob Greise. Here’s what it would sound like if those six clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Tampa Bay, home of the stupid Buccaneers. Guys, did you hear about the bullying situation on the Miami Hurricanes? Let’s discuss it for 45 minutes like all of the other networks.

Emmitt: Roscoe, I’m very disk concerning about this news. Richie In… Inc… Incognigo a bad guy who need to be punishment for the crime he make against Jonathan Joseph. If he do the crime, he must do the punish. This reminds me of a movie call Crime and Punish, where a guy do a crime, and then he punish.

Reilly: First of all, Emmitt, it’s Jonathan Martin. Secondly, how can you side with that Martin chicken wuss? Richie Incognito deserves credit for pushing that chicken wuss around. Incognito is a national hero, as far as I’m concerned.

Tollefson: I agree with you, Kevin. When I was in high school, I bullied this kid Melvis around. Why? Because all of the girls thought it was hot. I got some of them to cook and clean for me. Melvis committed suicide because of what I did, but who cares when there are tons of hot, naked girls running around your house, you know?

Griese: Melvis… I miss Melvis… He was my dear cousin who committed suicide yesterday because someone was bullying him in high school…

Reilly: Haha, senile Griese thinks it’s 1920s! And it sounds like you totally made his cousin kill himself, Tolly. High five!

Edwards: NO HIGH FIVE! HIGH FIVE NOT GOOD HERE! HIGH FIVE NOT COOL HERE! NO PLACE FOR THE HIGH FIVE! NO PLACE! DOESN’T BELONG HERE! DOESN’T BELONG AT ALL! SOMEONE KILLING THEMSELVES IS NOT GOOD! DEFINITELY NOT GOOD! SOMEONE KILLING THEMSELVES IS BAD! VERY BAD! VERY VERY BAD! WHAT ABOUT THE FAMILY? WHAT ABOUT THE LOVED ONES? WHAT ABOUT HIS FRIENDS? SO DON’T DO HIGH FIVE! DON’T DO IT NOW! DON’T DO IT AT ALL! DON’T DO HIGH SIX EITHER! AND DON’T DO HIGH SEVEN! AND DON’T DO HIGH EIGHT! NOT HIGH NINE! NOT HIGH TEN! NOT ELEVEN! NOT TWELVE! NOT THIRTEEN! NOT FOURTEEN! FIFTEEN! SIXTEEN! SEVENTEEN! EIGHTEEN’S NEXT, BUT WHY’S HERM COUNTING? HERM FORGOT WHY HE’S COUNTING NUMBERS! COUNTING… umm… uhh…

Reilly: Hey guys, let’s take Herm’s lunch money! That’ll make the great Richie proud!

Millen: That sounds like a good idea, Kevin. I’ve used my new kielbasa sextant to approximate what percentage USDA Man everyone is, and I’ve come to the conclusion that Richie Incognito is 385.7-percent USDA Man. Jonathan Martin, meanwhile, is only 6.4-percent USDA Man. I think we know who is at fault here. Let’s talk up Richie Incognito some more so perhaps he can join me for some kielbasa-related fun in my hotel room later tonight.

Reilly: You’re an idiot, Millen. There’s no way to find out what percentage USDA Man anyone is. What the hell does that mean, anyway?

Davis: There are actually plenty of ways to measure the percentage of something, Kevin. For example, there are instruments to measure percentage of…

Reilly: Shut up, Charles Davis! You’re just going to read off percentages of irrelevant things. Well, I have news for you, you half piece of s***. I want to poop in your mouth! I’m going to slap your real mother across the face! And not just your real mother; but your fake mother too buhahaha!! We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

MIAMI OFFENSE: Lost in this whole Richie Incognito-Jonathan Martin “debaclation” is the state of the Dolphins’ offensive line going forward. Losing Martin isn’t a big deal because there isn’t much of a difference between him and Tyson Clabo. The Incognito departure, however, will be huge. Aside from Mike Pouncey, Incognito was the top blocker on the unit. Ryan Tannehill has already been sacked a league-high 35 times, so what’s going to happen to him now with Incognito gone?

The timing of Incognito’s absence isn’t very good, as the Dolphins have to deal with Gerald McCoy in the interior. McCoy single-handedly disrupted Russell Wilson’s timing, as he perhaps had his best outing of the season. Meanwhile, on the back end, the Buccaneers finally decided to use Darrelle Revis in man coverage. Took them long enough. Revis held his receiver to two catches for eight yards. He’ll likely be on Mike Wallace in this matchup. If so, Tannehill will suddenly find that his options are very limited; remember, Brandon Gibson, an important part of this aerial attack, has been lost for the season.

Miami has to stick with the running game to make things easier for Tannehill, as it did versus Cincinnati. It’ll have success in this regard, as the Buccaneers, 21st against the run in terms of YPC (4.13), just surrendered 162 rushing yards to the Seahawks despite being well ahead on the scoreboard.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Speaking of running the ball successfully, the Buccaneers did that as well in Sunday’s matchup. Mike James was awesome, rushing for 158 yards on 28 attempts. He’ll look to carry that over into this contest, as the Dolphins have surrendered at least 147 yards on the ground to their previous two opponents. I don’t know what happened to Paul Soliai, but he just looks worn down.

James will have to run well again to open up more opportunities for Mike Glennon, who went 17-of-23 for 168 yards and two touchdowns last week. Glennon showed good decision-making, as most of his incompletions were thrown away. He’s had some shaky moments, but playing that well in Seattle is no simple feat.

I don’t see why Glennon can’t have success again Monday night, as long as James gives him favorable down-and-distance situations. What’s key is the matchup between Demar Dotson and Cameron Wake. The latter had three sacks last week, but Dotson has played well this season, surrendering only three sacks all year.

RECAP: I don’t bet poisonous teams, but I will pick them on occasion for no units. That’s what I’m doing here. The Buccaneers feel like the right side; they’re desperate for a win, and they seem to be getting the Dolphins at the right time with this Incognito controversy. Outside of the “poisonous team” factor, the one thing I don’t like for the Buccaneers is that they’re coming off an emotional overtime loss. Still though, there are way more things going against Miami.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are betting the Buccaneers, and so am I. I’m bumping this up to one unit. I’ve vowed not to bet on poisonous teams, but I don’t really see much of a difference between Tampa Bay and Miami. The latter is only a bit better than the former, so this spread is off, especially considering that the Dolphins are undoubtedly distracted by the Richie Incognito-Jonathan Martin situation.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Both teams are in bad shape, mentally. The Dolphins have the Jonathan Martin stuff, while the Buccaneers are coming off an emotional loss versus the Seahawks.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 52% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Underdog is 44-21 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 65 games.

Dolphins are 8-14 ATS vs. NFC teams since 2008.

Buccaneers are 9-24 ATS at home in the previous 33 instances.

Buccaneers are 4-12 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Dolphins -3.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 16, Dolphins 14
Buccaneers +2.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 40 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Buccaneers 22, Dolphins 19

Week 10 NFL Picks – Early Games
Washington at Minnesota, Seattle at Atlanta, Detroit at Chicago, Philadelphia at Green Bay, Jacksonville at Tennessee, St. Louis at Indianapolis, Oakland at NY Giants, Buffalo at Pittsburgh, Cincinnati at Baltimore

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Packers +7.5, Ravens +7.5 (2 units) — Incorrect; -$220

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)