NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2013

NFL Picks (Preseason 2013): 10-6 (+$720)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2013): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2013): 10-6 (+$720)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 9, 4:28 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games

Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0)
Line: Broncos by 7.5. Total: 47.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Broncos -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Preseason): Broncos -5.
Thursday, Sept. 5, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 1 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

I love the summer. The weather’s nice, girls wear almost nothing and the sun doesn’t set until after 8 p.m. Plus, I don’t have to do much work. I can get all of my season previews done ahead of time and then take trips to Tampa or the Jersey Shore, which you can read about if you click the links.

I’m grateful though that football is always around to make the colder weather, clothed women and shorter days more bearable. I’m usually excited for the season to start, but I’m even more stoked this year for four reasons:

1. I’m way more focused and prepared this year than I was last season. I have an Excel sheet to help me keep track of my projected lines, power ratings and various trends/factors. I don’t want to say that I was loafing in 2012 or anything, but I had other priorities, as I just entered a relationship with Awesome Girl Who Loves Football. The eight months I was with her (plus the seven months prior in which we spent talking until 5 a.m. each night) was a great time because she’s an amazing woman and we had so much in common in terms of personality. Looking back though, it took away from my focus and preparation and such. I don’t want to make it sound like I’m blaming her or anything; I was the one who was being stupid. I’ll admit that I’m seeing someone new now, but we’ve only hung out 8-10 times, so this won’t diminish my degenerative gambling habits. Besides, I’ve learned my lesson. This has to come first.

2. Being a single man this summer, I had lots of time to do cool stuff like download porn, stare creepily at girls at bars/parties and eat tons of Cheetos because I didn’t have to worry about my weight. I also had an opportunity to look back and perform a self-diagnosis to see what I was doing wrong.

I’ve determined that I focused way too much on trends. I still think trends are important, but not nearly enough to where you should bet blindly on them. I feel like everything must be factored in. Something I did a poor job of was not considering my power rankings when making my selections. I automatically assumed that Vegas set the number correctly in terms of the quality of each squad, but that’s definitely not the case because the sportsbooks need to cater to public perception.

So, in summary, I’ll be looking at every single angle this season when it comes to my picks. I’m confident that this will help me avoid the red this time.

3. I hired two programmers this summer, and we plan to implement tons of new features on the site. We’ve already added a new-and-improved Survivor Pool (FREE entry, $350 prize, so click on the link). A Picking Contest is next. You’ll later be able to rate my picks and NFL mock draft selections. We’ll have a log-in system that will integrate with the forums. Everyone will have their own profile page and such. Teams will have profile pages as well. There will be a much better Mock Draft Builder. This is just some of the new stuff we’ll be adding in the coming months. I’m super excited about all of this, so I hope you’ll enjoy the new features.

4. Something I’ve done personally is set up my picking pages so now the comedic segments (or for you haters, my failed attempts at comedy) will be on different pages. Thus, these pages won’t be nearly as cluttered. I feel like this is a win-win for everyone. Those who want to read things like Gamecenter trolling comments or the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts will still be able to, while others who just want the selections won’t have to sift through lots of miscellaneous stuff. The only “extra” items will be the hate mail and my fake Monday night announcer dialogue.

Meanwhile, everything else will remain the same. More details on that later.

Oh, and before I get to this actual game, I think it’s completely ridiculous that the Ravens can’t open up their season at home. The Baltimore Orioles are such dicks for not accommodating. They couldn’t move their crucial matchup against the mediocre Yankees to the afternoon? They couldn’t set up a double-header at some point? What if it rains? They’d have the cancel the game anyway.

The bottom line is that the Orioles are acting so selfishly because they’re jealous that way more people care about the Ravens. Baseball is stupid and boring because one game out of 162 means absolutely nothing. So, have fun with your dumb matchup against New York, Orioles. I’m sure all of about 25 people are actually going to attend the game with the defending NFL champions opening their season that night.

Rant over. I’ll be posting these NFL Picks throughout the day. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: This may not be the right place for the Ravens to battle the Broncos, but it’s definitely the right time. Von Miller is suspended. Champ Bailey is a game-time decision. Derek Wolfe is coming off an injury. There are major problems at linebacker. These are just some of the issues Denver is dealing with right now.

Joe Flacco was a magnificent 18-of-34 for 331 yards and three touchdowns in January’s playoff victory at Denver – and he did all of this with Miller and Bailey (and not to mention Elvis Dumervil) on the field. He won’t have Anquan Boldin or Dennis Pitta at his disposal this time, but it wasn’t Boldin or Pitta who spent the entire evening torching the Bronco secondary. That was Torrey Smith (until the Jacoby Jones bomb), who had his way with Bailey. Even if Bailey plays, he won’t be 100 percent. He looked slow and sluggish in the preseason prior to getting hurt. I wouldn’t count on him being much of a positive factor in this contest.

I expect both Flacco and Ray Rice to have tons of success in this matchup. Denver is very soft in the interior of its defense. Rice struggled to run the ball early in the preseason, but picked up big chunks of yardage when Marshal Yanda came back into the lineup. Baltimore should be able to overwhelm the Broncos in the trenches on this side of the ball.

DENVER OFFENSE: With the Broncos having no way of applying pressure on the quarterback right now, the Ravens will have defenders swarming in Peyton Manning’s face. A pass-rush of Terrell Suggs and Dumervil is pretty sick. Manning gets rid of the ball quickly, but he won’t have many chances to scan the field and burn his opponent downfield – especially with inept center Manny Ramirez blocking in the interior.

Baltimore is strong all around on defense. I don’t know where this perception came from that the Ravens aren’t playoff contenders this year because of all their offseason losses, but this stop unit looks better to me than last year’s version. Dumervil is an upgrade over Paul Kruger. Daryl Smith, meanwhile, is better than Ray Lewis was in 2012. Lewis’ leadership will be missed, but Smith is a Pro Bowl talent who thrived in the preseason. Smith will help shut down Denver’s feeble rushing attack; Montee Ball is a typical Big Ten plodder, so he won’t muster much on the ground.

As for the Ravens’ secondary, Michael Huff is an upgrade over Ed Reed, who could barely move at times last year. It’ll still be very difficult for Baltimore to cover all of Manning’s awesome weapons, but bombarding the future Hall of Famer with tons of pressure will help offset that.

RECAP: This spread is way too high. Forum member BobLoblaw made a great point when he said, “To put it in perspective, the line is only one point less than the Colts-Raiders line.”

My calculated spread – a byproduct of my new spreadsheet – is Denver -5, so I obviously like the visitor a good bit. I think the line is inflated because ESPN has dumbed the public down into thinking the Ravens aren’t that good anymore because they lost both Lewis and Reed, but anyone who watched Baltimore closely last year saw that both defenders were pretty much running on fumes. As long as the Ravens aren’t caught up in post-Super Bowl hoopla, they’ll be better in 2013. Let’s take advantage of that.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread is currently available for +7 +100 in many books and +7.5 -115 at Bovada, so take your pick. I’d rather lay no juice, but it’s pretty close to a coin flip for me. I still like the Ravens a good deal.

The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.

The Broncos want revenge, but the Ravens have to feel pretty pissed that they can’t open up their post-Super Bowl campaign at home.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 51% (54,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Peyton Manning is 7-1 ATS on Thursday.

Opening Line: Broncos -8.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Cloudy, 70 degrees.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Broncos 27, Ravens 24
Ravens +7.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 47.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 49, Ravens 27

New England Patriots (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0)
Line: Patriots by 9.5. Total: 50.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Patriots -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Preseason): Patriots -9.5.
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 1 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

Regardless of how well or poorly I do with my picks this year, I’m thrilled the NFL is back. I’ve even watched every single preseason game this August. Go here for recaps of all the preseason games.

Included in these recaps are gaffes made by the inept, homer announcing teams. I’ve made a compilation of NFL preseason announcer mistakes (this simple link is a preview for how the rest of the picks page is going to look like in terms of the “extra content.”)

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Tom Brady always has his way with the Bills. In two matchups last year, he generated six touchdowns and threw zero interceptions. His team scored an average of 44.5 points in the two contests. Complete domination.

Now, you may be quick to point out that neither Aaron Hernandez nor Rob Gronkowski will be available in this contest. Well, Hernandez was out for the first matchup last year. As for Gronk, his absence will be offset by Buffalo’s No. 1 cornerback, Stephon Gilmore, being out with an injury as well. Meanwhile, safety Jairus Byrd will be hobbled with plantar fasciitis. Brady, who has turned mediocre talents into stars before, will be able to shred the Bills’ injury-ravaged secondary with Danny Amendola, Shane Vereen and his band of rookie wideouts.

With Buffalo worrying so much about Brady, Stevan Ridley should have some running lanes open up for him. Ridley averaged 4.8 and 4.5 YPC in the two matchups last year.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: E.J. Manuel has a chance of playing this week. He practiced a couple of times thus far, but if he can’t go, undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel will get the nod. Regardless, Buffalo will be trotting out a rookie signal-caller against Bill Belichick. Think that favors the Patriots?

The Bills would obviously prefer to have Manuel under center, but Tuel did prove himself to be competent in the preseason. Manuel/Tuel will be able to lean on C.J. Spiller, who will be handling the majority of the workload for the first time in his career. Spiller, a threat to go the distance every time he touches the ball, gained 131 yards on just 13 touches in the second matchup last year. For Buffalo to stay competitive in this contest, Spiller will have to break several long runs/receptions. Even then, it’s a bit dicey.

RECAP: My calculated line is -9.5 (-6.5 if Manuel starts). With that in mind, I’m staying away from this game. I have no interest in betting the Bills because the Patriots always destroy them. Conversely, laying double digits (or close to it) on the road is seldom a smart thing to do.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I get the feeling Tom Brady will want seven touchdowns of his own after watching Peyton Manning on Monday night. With Gilmore and Byrd both out, he might get the chance to do that. Unfortunately, this line is just way too high.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

No surprise that people are betting the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 74% (58,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 18 of the last 19 meetings.

Patriots are 40-23 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Tom Brady is 147-49 as a starter (113-78 ATS).

Opening Line: Patriots -6.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Patriots 34, Bills 20
Patriots -9.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 50.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 23, Bills 21

Tennessee Titans (0-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0)
Line: Steelers by 6. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Steelers -9.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Preseason): Steelers -7.
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 1 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

In another demonstration of how I’ll be linking to the “extra content” on these picks pages, here’s a compilation of my favorite NFL preseason announcer mistakes from 2009 to 2012.

Oh, and in an unrelated note, I forgot to mention that our Fantasy Football Weekly Rankings have also experienced a change. Now included are projected stats and points. In the next few days, we’ll be adding PPR and flex links. Follow me @walterfootball for updates on that.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: If there’s one take-away from the Steelers’ preseason, it’s that the offensive line is in shambles. Ben Roethlisberger was running for his life on nearly every snap in August. It’s amazing that Pittsburgh hasn’t been able to fix this area despite having such great issues with it over the years. It’s a shame because it’s cutting off time from Big Ben’s playing career (though, if you hate him, as many women do, I suppose this is not such a bad thing).

The Titans don’t have one dominant pass-rusher – they blitz a lot and tend to get pressure from all over the place – though I suppose defensive tackle Jurrell Casey is getting close to that. Casey, entering his third season, was dominant in the exhibition campaign. He could cause a ton of havoc for Pittsburgh’s anemic front.

Having Casey and company rattle Roethlisberger will be key because the team still has issues in the secondary. The coaching staff begrudgingly gave the No. 2 corner job to Alterraun Verner even though he was torched on multiple occasions in August. I also remain unconvinced that the safety issues have been fixed despite the offseason additions of Bernard Pollard and George Wilson.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: While the Steelers have problems up front, the Titans have shored up their offensive line. Chance Warmack and Andy Levitre were great acquisitions, as they blasted open huge holes for Chris Johnson in the preseason. CJ2K probably won’t reach 2,000 yards again, but he has a great chance to exceed 1,500.

Johnson ripping off big chunks of yardage will take pressure of Jake Locker. Still though, Locker remains the key to Tennessee’s success. He’s been so inconsistent and erratic over his brief NFL career that it’s been impossible to gauge which version of him will show up: the guy who committed five turnovers against the Texans in Week 13 last year, or the one who shredded the Lions earlier, going 29-of-42 for 378 yards and two scores.

The one thing going for Locker is that he was sharp in the preseason. That’s promising. Having said that, he saw vanilla looks in August. This game will be much different because it’s the first time he’ll be going up against Dick LeBeau. There’s no doubt the legendary defensive coordinator has some confusing schemes planned for the young quarterback.

RECAP: This is another case in which the Vegas line matches my calculated spread. They have it as -7, and so do I. Thus, there’s no value with either side. I’d lean toward the Steelers because I could see Locker self-destructing, but who knows? Maybe the preseason wasn’t a mirage.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s sharp money on the Titans, but I don’t care – I’m not betting on Locker on the road versus LeBeau’s defense.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.
Slight lean on the visitor.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 60% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Steelers -6.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Steelers 22, Titans 13
Steelers -6 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Titans 16, Steelers 9

Atlanta Falcons (0-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-0)
Line: Saints by 3. Total: 54.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Saints -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Preseason): Saints -5.
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 1 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Saints.

I mentioned earlier that everything else will remain the same. Here’s my planned schedule this season:

Monday: NFL Game Recaps and Charlie’s Monday Morning Draft. Oh, and Jerks of the Week, of course.

Tuesday: I’ll have NFL Power Rankings up in the morning, a live 2014 NFL Mock Draft beginning at noon and Fantasy Weekly Rankings available in the evening (or perhaps even earlier). Oh, and Rags (from the forum) will be posting a weekly column as well.

Wednesday: NFL Picks will be going up all day long. I’m hesitant to do NFL Picks on Tuesday because it won’t give me enough time to do research. My apologies for any inconvenience, but I’d rather get more picks right than rush things.

Thursday: I’ll have a new feature where I break down the best options for our weekly FanDuel contest. More on this later.

Friday: Charlie’s 2014 NFL Mock Draft will be posted. Season 6 of Emmitt on the Brink as well.

Saturday and Sunday: Last-minute pick changes and college football game recaps with 2014 NFL Draft implications.

And again, we’ll be adding stuff like the Survivor Pool (FREE entry, $350 prize, so click on the link). Many more features to come, so as usual, follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Drew Brees has to be thrilled to have Sean Payton back. I have a feeling that he and his teammates are no longer taking football for granted; they looked like they were playing with a sense of purpose this preseason. Given that they didn’t have a head coach in 2012 and consequently endured a miserable season, it’s easy to understand why they’re so hungry and motivated.

Brees should be able to take out his frustrations against the Falcons. He tossed five picks against them in a Thursday night loss last year, but things will be much different this time around. First of all, he’s playing at home now, where his entire team performs much better. Second, Atlanta has lost some key players this offseason. Two of the team’s top three corners are rookies, and one of them, Robert Alford, was torched in August.

Helping Brees even more than an inexperienced opposing secondary is Atlanta’s lacking pass rush. John Abraham is gone and has been replaced by Osi Umenyiora, who looked like he lacked explosion last year. Umenyiora didn’t show anything in the preseason, so the chances of the Falcons getting anything from him are bleak. They may have to rely on one of their four young pass-rushers, which is not a good thing for the season opener.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Saints tend to have a terrible defense, and this year is no different. The two competent starting offenses they played in the preseason – Kansas City and Houston – both had their way with Rob Ryan’s 3-4. It’s not Ryan’s fault that his new squad has incurred a ton of injuries on defense, but the fact remains that the Saints are undermanned on this side of the ball.

Matt Ryan went 34-of-52 for 411 yards, three touchdowns and an interception against the Saints in the first 2012 matchup. His stats were terrible in the second game, but only because he didn’t have to do anything; Michael Turner compiled 83 yards and a touchdown on just eight carries. I joked in my game recap, “Perhaps the Giants should re-sign Tiki Barber and Ron Dayne because the Saints apparently can’t stop old, washed-up running backs.”

Steven Jackson is old, but he’s not washed up. He looked pretty spry in the preseason, so he should have no problem gashing the Saints and opening up easy throwing opportunities for Ryan.

RECAP: A line of -3 for the home team usually means that both squads are even, given that three points are usually awarded to the host. That doesn’t apply to the Saints, however, who have the most dominant homefield advantage in the NFL, save for Seattle. Thus, I gave New Orleans -3.5 for being at home. I also think they’re a bit better than the Falcons, plus they’ll be fired up after what happened last year, so that’s how I came up with -5 for my calculated line.

With two points of value on the Saints’ side, I’ll take them for a couple of units. I could easily see this being a three-point affair though, so if this spread rises to -3.5, I’ll take at least one unit off.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It amazes me that the public doesn’t realize that the Saints are better than the Falcons. The host seems to be the right side.

The Psychology. Edge: Saints.

The Saints will be fired up after last year’s disaster. The crowd will be going absolutely nuts.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 57% (69,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Saints have won 10 of the last 13 meetings.

Saints are 26-13 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Opening Line: Saints -3.

Opening Total: 53.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Saints 38, Falcons 31
Saints -3 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 54.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 23, Falcons 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)
Line: Buccaneers by 3.5. Total: 40.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Preseason): Jets -4.5.
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 1 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Jets.

I’ll be keeping the hate mails on this page because they’re lots of fun. Even if I win more than I lose this year, I’m sure I’ll receive tons of nasty feedback. Here are the hate mails I received last season after my disastrous Week 1:

I knew I’d hear from this pgup9 guy. He’s always the first to let me know that I sucked:

I am kidding about the -$10,000 thing, but it’s probably going to happen.

Here are some from the comment board:

walt got 1 yeah thats right 1 game right picking on the early games! dude you suck!!!!

How quickly you forget that I got another one right in the afternoon games. That’s two picks correct, dude. Get your facts straight.

Damn.. I like Raven and Over today but saw Walter picked the same. Now, I’m scare b/c Walter is like MUSHED (the guy who touches everything and loses)

Weird. Urban Dictionary defines mushed as “a forceful pressing motion to the forehead, used to show dominance (usually from a man to woman, or woman to woman) and confrontation.”

Does somebody sane, still believe in this guy, Walter?, he works for Las Vegas books for sure.

You got me. They recruited me, and now it’s my mission to make everyone lose money. Muhahahaha!

How many people do you have bare-a** fart into your face as you are making your picks for this site. I would have to estimate enough people to fill up a dump truck, but it could very well be more at this rate.

You know, I enjoy it when naked dudes fart into my face, but never once did I imagine that I could combine this with making picks. Thanks for the great idea!

Walt, I cleaned up this week, I think you are completely ridiculous and went opposite of all your picks. I did fantastic. Keep up the BS you are starting to develop a pattern.

When you have enough money to buy a mansion at the end of the season, remember who was responsible for this.

Walter: “Take the titans because superbowl losers are 2-15 ATS in the past 17 years…Hurr Hurr… and the line is a movin so jump on the titans while you can… derp de durr… and the loser of every sunday night winner after a 1-3 preseason when scoring over 20 points but less than 24 points blah blah blah blah… and my mom baked a cake that looked like Jake Locker so that means they are gonna cover”. IT WAS THE PATS -5 TO THE TITANS FOR CHRIST SAKE.

I think this is pretty funny, so I have nothing to top that. Just remember that if betting were as easy as taking “Patriots -5 over Titans because ‘OMG THE PATS ARE LIEK SO MUCH BETTER,'” the Vegas sportsbooks would be out of business.

you should throw yourself off a bridge! you are the worst handicapper ever!

Well, I asked a friend to throw me off a bridge, but if you think I should do it myself, who am I to argue?

your 2-12 record is god awful.your insights have been proven to be meaningless.Shone Green is one of the best backs in the NFL but according to you he cant play. you cant play. Who knows how many millions were lost this weekend by bettors following your advice.In the real world you would be fired for gross incompetence.

If I referred to Shonn Greene as “Shone Green,” I’d be fired for gross incompetence as well.

Ur a moron walt!!!!lol U seriously wrote on ur college football picks to not take ur college picks to heart as ur “way” better at picking pros..lol Well, that is almost hard to believe.. Do u realize how pathetic u are? I mean, seriously? U are aboust the worst handicapper in the history of sports.. Last yr when u would spit out pathetic week after pathetic week, u said it had to be the lockout and yada yada yada.. Well walt, i guess u need another lockout because last yrs absoulute pathetic season was nothing compared to this past week..lol Good work!(loser)

I am better in the pros. I guarantee that over a long period of time, you can lose less money with my NFL picks than with my college picks. Betting on my college picks will put you in a cardboard box in three years, but wagering on my NFL selections will take you five.

Walt, you realize that you were one game away from being a perfect loser don’t you?! Do you feel like an idiot for doing all that work shooting your mouth off and then losing your a**? Get a real job or get a pet monkey to pick for you.

I’d get a pet monkey, but I can’t afford one because of all the money I lost this past weekend.

His handicapping is downright terrible lately. Walt’s focus has shifted to boring comedy that only he finds funny. This site used to be reliable but now Walt’s just lost it.

Hey, that’s just wrong. I know at least two other people who find my comedy funny.

lmaaaooo bro ur destroyed after 1 week like last year you had a few good years now ur fade material write ups are comical and worthless. I read a sentence here and there and every time I only think “fuhking tool”

Sweet. My write-ups are comical. That’s three other people who find my comedy funny.

just give up — you used to be not funny but at least have decent picks but now you’re not funny AND your picks are terrible. hahahahahahahaha good to see your tebow loving a** go down

Hey, leave Tebow out of this. He did nothing wrong and is still as awesome as ever, especially when he runs shirtless through the rain.

WALT YOU CANT PIcK YOUR nOSE! How Many Did you Get Right? 1-2 picks out of like ten? You Suck

No. I got 1-2 picks out of 14 on Wednesday and Sunday. I wish it was out of 10!

I am laughing so hard right now. This is pretty amazing how bad walter is at picking games. he really has no knowledge and would be better off flipping a coin.14tsjf

Agreed. I’d actually be better off calling tails on a two-headed coin at this point.

Walt you missed almost every pick, you really need to stop picking football games you suck at it. I really don’t need to back what I said up either it’s all above me you’re horrible at this.

I don’t understand why so many people want me to stop. You can make tons of money betting against my picks. You can seriously become rich doing this!

I even got some hate mail for fantasy for ranking Ben Tate too high:

I need to say thanks to those who still support me. I’m really working hard to figure out what I’m doing wrong. I feel more confident this week, so maybe I’ll go 6-10 instead of 3-13.

*** Anyway, I love getting hate mail, but I’d prefer to be successful with my picks. A mixture of both in 2013 would be awesome.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It was announced that Geno Smith will be the starter for the Jets in the opener. Mark Sanchez isn’t expected to be available, but Smith would’ve gotten the nod anyway. I guess this should be seen as a wash, as Smith will just step out of his own end zone to give Tampa a safety instead of collide with his own guard’s buttocks.

Smith is pretty raw, but the Jets will take some pressure off of him by having Bilal Powell and Chris Ivory carry the football early and often. The Buccaneers were stout versus the rush last year, but that won’t be the case in 2013 with Michael Bennett and Roy Miller both gone. The Jets have a forceful front that should be able to open up big holes for the two backs.

With Smith in constant third-and-manageable situations, the rookie should be able to avoid turnovers. It’ll also help his cause that Santonio Holmes is expected to play. I suppose that’ll mean Darrelle Revis will blanket him, but that may just open up opportunities for Stephen Hill.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Would it be crazy to say that the Buccaneers’ quarterback situation is even murkier than New York’s? Because that’s the case, believe it or not. Like the Jets, Tampa has a rookie signal-caller who will see extensive action this season because the incumbent veteran has confidence issues. But that’s not Josh Freeman’s only problem. I can’t get into it, but Freeman has major personal things going on. Ronde Barber obviously knows what’s happening, as the new FOX Sports analyst chided Freeman during a couple of the telecasts, stating that Freeman doesn’t have what it takes to lead a football team and then saying “Something seems very off with Josh.”

I’ll be shocked if Freeman doesn’t have a disastrous performance (three or more turnovers) in this contest. Antonio Cromartie should be able to take Vincent Jackson away for the most part, while the Jets’ strong front seven will put immense pressure on Freeman. Guard Carl Nicks is out, while left tackle Donald Penn is fat and out of shape, so New York’s pass rush will be effective even with Quinton Coples out.

Doug Martin is the Buccaneers’ only hope of scoring, but he’ll find it difficult to locate any running room with Nicks out. The Jets should be able to stuff the run effectively with Muhammad Wilkerson and the surprising Snacks Harrison clogging the interior.

RECAP: This is one of my two favorite picks of the week. Not only do I think the wrong team is favored; I believe the Jets should be laying more than a field goal.

The public perception is that Tampa should have an easy victory in this contest, as everyone’s down on the Jets. The Buccaneers are a very popular pick in our Survivor Pool (FREE entry, $350 prize, so click on the link). Well, Tampa is every bit as bad as New York and could possibly be worse. Add in the fact that the Buccaneers will be looking ahead to matchups against the Saints and Patriots, and I’ll be pretty shocked if the Jets don’t win/cover.

This game reminds me a ton of last year’s Bills-Jets tilt. Everyone was trashing New York and picking Buffalo to win outright. The Jets ended up smoking the Bills. They’ll be playing for respect once again at home versus a putrid opponent.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t understand how anyone can take the Buccaneers. Tampa’s not 6.5 points better than anyone, save for the Raiders. Oh, and if you check below, I added a cool trend that favors the Jets.

The Psychology. Edge: Jets.

Everyone expects the Buccaneers to win this game. Tampa Bay has New Orleans and New England after this apparent easy victory. The Jets, meanwhile, once again have a Week 1 contest in which they’re being heavily disrespected.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

In the most lopsided game of the week, everyone’s betting everything they own on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 90% (69,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Teams which lost at least nine games last season and are away favorites in Week 1 are 8-17 ATS.

Buccaneers are 4-7 ATS as road favorites since 2004.

Jets are 7-12 ATS in September home games since 2000 (4-2 since in 2009).

Opening Line: Buccaneers -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Jets 16, Buccaneers 10
Jets +3.5 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 40 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jets 18, Buccaneers 17

Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0)
Line: Chiefs by 4. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Chiefs -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Preseason): Chiefs -1.5.
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 1 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

I love my job, but it can sometimes get annoying to answer the same question over and over again. Throughout the entire summer, I was asked the following three things about 100 times each:

1. What do you think about the Aaron Hernandez situation?

2. What do you think about the Riley Cooper situation?

3. Will the Eagles be good with Chip Kelly?

Might as well answer them here because I’ve done so in person so many times…

1. Hmm… what do I think about Hernandez…? Well, he’s a complete moron, and not because he threw his entire life away. That’s part of it, but if you really want to kill someone, how about you…

A. Not leave the body in the nearest industrial park where any jogger can find it.

B. Not make it completely obvious by disabling your security cameras and hiring a cleaning crew.

C. Get someone else to do it.

D. Either befriend someone at the local crematory so they can dispose of the body or buy a pet crocodile to eat the body.

E. Frame someone else on the team. For instance, he could’ve slipped a random note into Jake Ballard’s house that said: “Hey, this is totally like Jake Ballard and stuff. You know that Odin Lloyd guy? I hate him. He wore the same outfit as me at the last BBQ so now I want revenge, so I’m like going to like kill him and stuff. Sincerely, Jake Ballard.”

As you can see, I’ve clearly thought this through. NOT THAT I’VE KILLED ANYONE OR ANYTHING, I SWEAR!!!

2. I would’ve cut Riley Cooper. I thought the whole thing was going to be a huge distraction for the Eagles, but the team has done a good job of sweeping it under the rug. The fans even cheered Cooper when he made his second reception against the Panthers in the preseason, so they must hate black people as well.

It’s a shame that Cooper got away with this. Chris Culliver wasn’t punished either for doing the same thing (bashed gays instead of blacks) prior to the Super Bowl. I just think the NFL is sending a bad message. They should stand against racism.

And please, no BS about “freedom of speech.” Freedom of speech ensures that people don’t go to jail for what they say; it does not apply to any workplace. So, while Cooper and Culliver couldn’t (and shouldn’t) be imprisoned for being blatant racists, they should’ve at least received some sort of punishment as an example. After all, they’re public figures and role models for children.

3. My prediction for Chip Kelly: I say he’ll be the head coach of USC in 2015. I think his up-tempo offense can work in the NFL, but the same can be said for any system as long as the team has the right personnel. Kelly does not have the right personnel. The best quarterback on his team is a turnover machine who is easily confused by complex defenses. QB Dog Killer has looked good in the preseason, but I seem to recall Steve Spurrier’s Redskins putting up tons of points in the 2002 exhibition campaign (32.8 points per game) and then flopping once the regular season began.

Oh, and here’s something I wrote during the summer about Kelly (and his predecessor) that you might find amusing:

It was reported by certain outlets last week that Chip Kelly banned red meat and the beloved Taco Tuesdays from the Eagles’ cafeteria. I’ve spoken to a reliable source who told me those reports aren’t completely true.

“There’s still red meat there, and they even served fried chicken the day after the report was made,” the source told me.

Also, there are stacks of delicious cookies still available that the players take by the handful. My source wasn’t sure if the Taco Tuesday report was accurate or not, though he did inform me that many were bummed out when they initially heard the news/rumor.

Having said that, Kelly is definitely trying to help the players be more mindful of their diet. The spoons in the cafeteria now say what serving size they are. Kelly is also making sure that the players have as much information as possible about maintaining a good diet.

Even stuff as simple as that is a much radical change from what Reid used to do. My source told me that Reid would bring countless boxes of Popeye’s fried chicken on plane rides and hand them out to the players.

“I didn’t get an exact number,” my source said when I asked him how many boxes of fried chicken Reid brought aboard the plane. “I think he got a box for everybody.”

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Speaking of Kelly’s predecessor, Andy Reid took over the Kansas City job and immediately traded for Alex Smith. The former 49er quarterback is very limited in what he can do, but something he excels at is throwing the ball quickly for short gains. The Chiefs won’t stand a chance in third-and-long situations because Smith simply doesn’t look downfield, but that might not be an issue in this contest.

Many of Smith’s checkdowns will be thrown to Jamaal Charles, who is one of the most elusive backs in the NFL. Jacksonville has a terrible back seven – two of the linebackers are Russell Allen and Geno Hayes, while two rookies and a man named Alan Ball start in the secondary – so the team will have issues wrapping up Charles. He should be able to break a few big gains and keep Smith in third-and-short situations.

The Jaguars’ defensive strength will be stopping the run with Roy Miller now on the squad, but Reid doesn’t ask his offense to rush the football. Conversely, Jacksonville will struggle to generate pressure – Jason Babin is its primary pass-rusher – so Smith shouldn’t have any issues behind his offensive line, though rookie right tackle Eric Fisher did struggle in the preseason.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars know a thing or two about limited quarterbacks. Blaine Gabbert hasn’t been able to keep his eyes open while throwing the ball throughout his NFL career. Perhaps that will change; he was very sharp in a Week 2 preseason tilt against the Jets. Then again, Rex Ryan didn’t show him any complicated defensive schemes.

Gabbert obviously doesn’t handle pressure well, which doesn’t bode well for him in this matchup because the Chiefs have two outstanding rush linebackers in Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. The Jaguars can counter with two talented tackles, but Luke Joeckel is just a rookie. Joeckel didn’t get many snaps during the preseason because of a nagging injury.

The Jaguars can keep Gabbert out of long-yardage dilemmas by establishing Maurice Jones-Drew, who looked pretty healthy in the preseason. The problem with that is that the Chiefs, who had multiple Pro Bowlers on defense last year, seem to be well equipped to stop the run. Nose tackle Dontari Poe is in great shape; ESPN’s Bill Williamson even wrote that the “light has come on” for Poe.

RECAP: I have the Chiefs calculated as a two-point favorite in this matchup. I’m just not ready to lay more than a field goal with them on the road. Then again, there’s no way in hell I’m betting on the Jaguars, so this is a stay-away for me.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m not betting on this game, but I’ve decided to switch sides. I think the Jaguars are the way to go. The Chiefs don’t deserve to be four-point road favorites over anyone except the Raiders.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

There’s tons of money coming in on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 83% (37,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

Teams which lost at least nine games last season and are away favorites in Week 1 are 8-17 ATS.

Jaguars are 10-6 ATS in home openers.

Opening Line: Chiefs -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Chiefs 19, Jaguars 16
Jaguars +4 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 28, Jaguars 2

Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)
Line: Bears by 3. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Bears -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Preseason): Bears -3.5.
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 1 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well.

There were three major headlines regarding college football this offseason. They were:

1. Johnny Manziel’s autograph scandal (and other off-the-field issues).

2. Jadeveon Clowney considering sitting out to avoid ruining his NFL Draft status.

3. The Ohio State arrests.

Here’s my take on each of these items:

1. Johnny Football is an a**hole. Plain and simple. He won the Heisman and had everything going for him. Scouts told us that he “looked like a first-rounder,” so I had him as high as No. 2 in my 2014 NFL Mock Draft at one point. All he had to do was avoid injuries and off-the-field scandals, and he would enter the league by storm with companies begging him to be their spokesperson.

Manziel certainly hasn’t suffered an injury, but he’s hurt his image with all of his antics. Missing Peyton Manning’s quarterback camp because he was too hungover was inexcusable.

“I�m just a college kid trying to enjoy life,” he defended himself back in July.

No, Johnny, you’re not just a college kid. If you want to be just a college kid, quit football and become an Econ major, or something. You’re the most prominent person at your school right now, and people are evaluating your mental makeup to see if you can be the face of an organization worth nine or 10 figures. That doesn’t sound like just a college kid to me.

It’s pretty alarming to me that Manziel doesn’t seem to get it. He has to understand that he’s being held to a higher standard than a normal college kid. He needs to stop screwing up before he permanently ruins his professional career.

Having said all of that, the autograph story is beyond ridiculous. I don’t understand how it’s legal for the NCAA to prohibit players from profiting off their own name when the NCAA has done so for decades. All of these top college players need to get together and file a class-action lawsuit against the NCAA and bring those greedy scumbags down.

2. Jadeveon Clowney made some noise by hinting that he’ll sit out the 2013 season so that he doesn’t get hurt. It would be very unfortunate if Clowney tore his Achilles or something, but that’s just how life goes. You can’t say to yourself, “I’d go to work today and make money, but I’m not going to drive because I could get into an accident, which could cost me even more.” There are risks in life.

Clowney ultimately decided that he would play, which was the right move because NFL teams would consider him a wuss otherwise. Besides, if Clowney sat out, there’s no doubt that karma would strike. Perhaps he’d trip on a McDonald’s bag like Brandon Marshall or slip on a wet mat like Kevin Kolb. Nah, forget I said that. The only football player capable of suffering an injury via wet mat is Kolb.

Of course, this all wouldn’t be an issue if Clowney were allowed to make money on endorsements and autographs right now. I can’t imagine the NCAA being able to get away with this crooked bulls*** much longer, especially with the Ed O’Bannon lawsuit happening.

3. So, some of Urban Meyer’s players were arrested this offseason? I AM SOOOOO SHOCKED!!! Meyer has never, ever been associated with any players who have broken the law, so I was completely taken aback when I heard the news. Like, my jaw literally dropped to the floor. I am not joking.

Oh, and here are two related jokes I heard during the offseason:

A. A serial killer, a racist and a priest walk into a bar. The bartender says, “Hey it’s the Florida Gators!”

B. O.J. Simpson, Ray Lewis, Aaron Hernandez and a friend walk into a bar. The friend never made it home.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Brandon Marshall made some noise in the past couple of weeks by complaining about the Bears neglecting his hip injury. Marshall sounded like he simply had sand in his vag for some reason because he looked great when he was on the field. Marshall was told by doctors that his hip is in great shape, so he’ll be on the field and 100-percent effective against the Bengals on Sunday.

Jay Cutler will need all of his weapons against a fierce Cincinnati defense that features stud defensive tackle Geno Atkins who was awarded with an extension (click the link for a signing grade). I’m still not confident in Chicago’s ability to protect Cutler, so the Bengals figure to have an advantage in the trenches.

Cutler does have a ton of talent to work with though. Starting across from Marshall, Alshon Jeffery had a terrific summer and looked like a stud in the team’s third preseason game. Martellus Bennett is also there, while Matt Forte will be featured more prominently in the passing game. The Bengals have a couple of shaky linebackers in Rey Maualuga and James Harrison, so new head coach Marc Trestman will undoubtedly figure out a way to get Forte in mismatches. I’d also be concerned about the secondary if I were a Bengal fan.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Andy Dalton has a similar supporting cast as Cutler; he can lob up passes to a dominant No. 1 receiver (A.J. Green) rely on a strong secondary option (Tyler Eifert) or check it down to his talented running back (Giovani Bernard). The difference is that the Bengals protect Dalton better – though that’s nullified in this matchup because the Bears have a stronger defensive unit.

The one change Chicago made on this side of the ball was replacing future Hall of Famer Brian Urlacher with second-round rookie Jon Bostic. This may seem like a downgrade to outside observers, but Urlacher could barely move last year. Bostic, meanwhile, has been impressive in the preseason. He hasn’t been mistake-free, but he’s a better option in the middle of the Bears’ defense. He’ll help the defensive front shut down the run – though not like it’s that difficult to stuff BenJarvus Green-Ellis in the backfield anyway.

Dalton, who will have to convert quite a few third downs on his own, has a limited skill set, which is why he has struggled against some of the better defenses in the NFL over his brief career. This should change a bit with his new supporting cast, but Bernard and Eifert are both just rookies, so it’ll take them a bit to get acclimated to the NFL.

RECAP: I went back and forth on this game several times. I ultimately settled with the Bears, but I’m not confident about it. What made the difference was something I posted in my NFL Power Rankings page: “Andy Dalton’s record against playoff teams: 1-11.” I believe Chicago has a good shot to be in the postseason, which would explain my pick.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s sharp money on the Bengals. I can’t explain why. Then again, this matchup has befuddled me.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

A big lean on the visitor.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 76% (54,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Bengals are 20-13 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Bengals are 11-5 ATS on the road with Andy Dalton.

Opening Line: Bears -3.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Bears 24, Bengals 20
Bears -3 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Over 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bears 24, Bengals 21

Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)
Line: Browns by 1.5. Total: 41.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Dolphins -2.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Preseason): Browns -1.5.
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 1 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

If you followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Three years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

As for 2012, I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that.

What’s in store for this season? Well, I imagine Aaron Hernandez and Riley Cooper will be involved. I’m going to post new Spam Mails here with my responses to avoid clutter. My first response has to do with the alleged serial killer.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: There must be a ton of excitement about the Browns because the Dolphins were favored earlier in the summer. Brandon Weeden was solid in two of his three preseason outings, as it looked like Norv Turner and Rob Chudzinski made a huge impact on him. Turner and the Chud are great coaches, so the Browns should look like a professional football team for the first time in quite awhile.

Of course, the player who will make the greatest leap from 2012 to 2013 is Trent Richardson. The No. 3 overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft hobbled through injuries in his rookie campaign and sluggishly gained just 3.6 yards per carry. However, Richardson is healthy now. He was absolutely explosive in the preseason, so if he stays healthy, he’ll have a good shot to win the rushing title (or at least finish second behind Adrian Peterson).

Helping both Richardson and Weeden is a stout offensive line. The Dolphins figure to bring a decent pass rush with Cameron Wake and the No. 3 overall pick in this year’s draft, Dion Jordan. Cleveland’s stud bookend tackles should stymie Wake and Jordan for the most part. This will help Weeden pick up the first downs Richardson doesn’t achieve, though it hurts that No. 1 wideout Josh Gordon is out with a suspension. Offsetting that, the Dolphins have a completely new linebacking corps that has yet to gel together. Turner and Chud should be able to come up with a game plan to take advantage of that.

MIAMI OFFENSE: It’s weird that the momentum from casual fans and bettors has shifted from the Dolphins to the Browns. Miami was seen as the winners of the offseason, as the team secured a number of prized free agents, including Mike Wallace. I’m not a big fan of Wallace though. He has blinding speed, but he’s a one-trick pony who has trouble holding on to the football. He’ll also have to deal with Joe Haden in this contest.

Something else that hurts Wallace is Miami’s atrocious offensive line. The front couldn’t block whatsoever for Ryan Tannehill in the preseason. The Browns have two talented pass-rushers in Paul Kruger and Jabaal Sheard who should be able to take advantage of the Dolphins’ weakness.

Having said that, the Dolphins should be able to move the chains occasionally. Like Cleveland, the best aspect of their offense is their rushing attack, as Lamar Miller was very impressive in the preseason. The Browns have a shaky situation at inside linebacker, so Miller figures to have a strong outing.

RECAP: Of all the games this week, this is the one I have the least opinion about. Both teams are unknowns because of new personnel, and I feel like the spread is right where it should be.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still have no opinion on this game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.
Slight lean on the host.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 64% (36,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Browns are 6-10 ATS as favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Browns 16, Dolphins 13
Browns -1.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Dolphins 23, Browns 10

Seattle Seahawks (0-0) at Carolina Panthers (0-0)
Line: Seahawks by 3.5. Total: 45.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Seahawks -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Preseason): Seahawks -1.5.
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 1 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

Video of the Week: If you’ve been reading this site for a while, you know that I hate ESPN. One of the reasons I despise that network is because they got rid of NFL Primetime, the best football show of all time. They had the most extensive highlights and awesome music to accompany them. I discovered this summer that some guy posted clips of NFL Primetime on YouTube. Check out this segment from Week 5, 2002.

I think it’s fun to watch these things. There were so many old names I forgot in that first contest alone like Eric Moulds, Peerless Price, Josh Reed, Charlie Garner, Phillip Buchanon, and of course, Zack Crockett, King of the Wild Frontier – one of the best pure goal-line specialists of all time.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Speaking of goal-line specialists, Cam Newton has endured a pretty putrid preseason. He was inaccurate and seemed to lack confidence. Some will be quick to point out that Newton had similar issues last August, but he began the year slowly, committing six turnovers in the first three games. The difference this time is that Rob Chudzinski, Carolina’s former offensive coordinator, won’t be there to help him. Newton is learning a new system and seemed frustrated as a consequence.

It’s not a good thing to be confused when battling the Seahawks. They have a terrific secondary and a strong pass rush, aided by the offseason acquisition of Cliff Avril. The Panthers had problems blocking this preseason, especially in the interior, so that will be a problem in this contest. Richard Sherman should smother Steve Smith in this matchup, so that will be an issue as well.

The Panthers won’t be able to run the ball with DeAngelo Williams to counter Seattle’s pressure. Williams kind of stinks, while the offensive front won’t be able to open any holes for him. Carolina’s best chance of moving the chains will be via Newton scrambles. Newton didn’t really take off and run much during the preseason, so perhaps doing so will make him play better.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Everyone is talking about the Seahawks’ defense, but Carolina has a ferocious front seven. Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy were already a great tandem on the exterior. The Panthers spent their first two picks in the 2013 NFL Draft on inside help, and the selections seem like they’ll pan out; Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short were terrific in the preseason. Meanwhile, Luke Kuechly appears as though he’ll be making a bid for Defensive Player of the Year.

With that in mind, the Seahawks are going to have major problems running the ball and protecting Russell Wilson. The offensive line has three starters who are major question marks: right tackle Breno Giacomini, and both guards, Paul McQuistan and J.R. Sweezy. Carolina’s defensive front should be able to overwhelm the opposition, creating havoc in Seattle’s backfield.

The one difference though is Russell Wilson. He just makes plays. If the game’s on the line, you almost expect him to come through. His receivers should be able to get open against Carolina’s woeful secondary, so I could see Seattle struggling to move the chains in the contest and somehow ultimately winning in the end.

RECAP: I’m taking the Panthers +3.5 for two units or +3 for one unit, so it depends on where the spread lands. The Seahawks are the better team, but they’ll be hurt by this ridiculous start time. Would it have hurt the NFL to put this game on at 4:25? Why are there only two 4 o’clock games? It’s stupid.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’d take the Panthers for two units at +3.5 but just one unit for +3. I wouldn’t lay more than -110 juice either.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Everyone’s buying into the Seattle Super Bowl hype.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 72% (74,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Seahawks are 16-30 ATS on the road since 2006 if they’re not coming off an away loss.

Panthers are 32-46 ATS at home since 2003.

Opening Line: Seahawks -3.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Seahawks 17, Panthers 16
Panthers +3.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 12, Panthers 7

Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)
Line: Lions by 4.5. Total: 46.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Lions -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Preseason): Lions -1.
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 1 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Vikings.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts is back for a second season! As with everything else though, I’m moving it to its own separate page. See what’s going on this week with this picture here:

DETROIT OFFENSE: Can someone explain to me why the Lions are favored by 5.5 points? I don’t get it. Did they suddenly become a disciplined team that will avoid making crucial mistakes? Did they somehow improve their offensive line to keep Matthew Stafford properly protected? This spread opened at -3, and I thought that was too much.

Perhaps all of the hoopla surrounding the Lions involves Reggie Bush. He’ll be an effective play-maker in their offense, and Stafford will throw to him a ton when Calvin Johnson isn’t available downfield. Still though, he won’t help Detroit establish a consistent ground attack because he’s not that sort of player. Megatron will also get his yardage, but that was the case last year as well.

Having said that, I’m not sure if the Lions will be able to sustain many long drives. Stafford’s mechanics were extra sloppy this preseason, so he could struggle. And as mentioned, his blocking is a huge concern. How is Detroit going to deal with Jared Allen going up against Riley Reiff? That’s a huge mismatch. And what about the other side? Brian Robison versus Jason Fox is just unfair.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: While many are wondering how the Vikings will stop the combination of Megatron and Bush, I’m trying to figure out what the Lions will do about Adrian Peterson. The latest 2,000-yard rusher generated a combined 273 rushing yards in two victories over Detroit last season. Peterson did this by gaining 5.7 yards per attempt.

The Lions haven’t done anything this offseason to help offset that. In fact, they lost personnel in the spring. They managed to add Ezekiel Ansah and Jason Jones to bolster the front line, but the former is just a rookie making his first start. I like left tackle Matt Kalil’s chances against him.

I guess that brings us to Christian Ponder, who is probably the reason why the Vikings are getting so little respect. Ponder was very pedestrian in the preseason, but he didn’t have Peterson at his disposal. It’s worth noting that Ponder went 24-of-32 for 221 yards and two touchdowns in his second matchup against Detroit in 2012. I wouldn’t expect him to repeat that, but I don’t think he’ll have a disastrous outing either.

RECAP: Once again, I’m miffed by this high spread. By my calculations, the inferior Lions should be laying only one point. People are leaning with the host, so there’s nothing shady going on either. I’m going to bet three units on the visitor, and I may make it four if the spread jumps to +6.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has dropped to -4/-4.5. I’d definitely lock in +4.5 if you can still get it at your book (it’s +4.5 at Bovada). There’s not much of a difference between 4.5 and 5.5, but 4 and 4.5 is big.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 54% (40,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Vikings have won 23 of the last 27 meetings.

Opening Line: Lions -3.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Vikings 27, Lions 26
Vikings +4.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Lions 34, Vikings 24

Oakland Raiders (0-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-0)
Line: Colts by 10. Total: 46.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Colts -9.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Preseason): Colts -13.5.
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 1 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Colts.

This summer, I ran a Mafia game on the Web site called Penn State Sex Scandal Mafia. You can click the link to read the introduction and see the list of players. I’ll add to this page throughout the season, listing roles and talking about funny things that happened during the game.

Why am I doing this? Well, I wanted to post this on the main section of this Web site so that the mainstream media people who have sand in their vages will pick up on this and complain that I’m being insensitive.

Oh, and by the way, we have other Mafia games going on right now in the Mafia Forum. Mafia is a blast, so come and join the fun.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: I’m not going to sugarcoat anything here. The Raiders are absolutely terrible. Their starting quarterback is Terrelle freaking Pryor. Yes, he can scramble a bit and pick up some first downs, but he can’t throw accurately or read defenses. He scored just six points in one half of action against Seattle’s second-string stop unit.

Furthermore, Pryor’s supporting cast stinks. Both starting receivers drop passes like there’s no tomorrow. The tight end is someone named Jeron Mastrud. The offensive line features four players who wouldn’t be starting for any other team in the league. Seriously, second-round rookie Menelik Watson is starting on the blind side, and he has NEVER played left tackle on any level of football.

The Raiders’ only chance of keeping up with the Colts is if Darren McFadden goes nuts and breaks several long runs. But considering his utter lack of explosion last year, Oakland fans shouldn’t be holding their breath. The Raiders should also get Marcel Reece involved, but they didn’t show any signs of doing that in the preseason.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: It only gets worse for the Raiders on defense. Their only redeemable veterans on this side of the ball are defensive end Lamarr Houston and safety Tyvon Branch. Maybe Charles Woodson too (though he can’t really move anymore), but that’s it. Rookies D.J. Hayden and Sio Moore could make an impact this year, but expecting them to step up and make a big difference in their first start is too much to ask.

The bottom line is that the Raiders won’t be able to generate pressure on the quarterback, stop opposing rushing attacks or cover skilled wide receivers. Andrew Luck could probably throw for 500 yards in this contest if he wanted to, but Indianapolis will likely be so far ahead that the team will just run the clock out in the second half.

RECAP: The Raiders are not a competitive football team at all. In fact, I think they might be the least-talented squad in the history of the NFL. I’m not kidding. I fully expect them to go 0-16, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they lost every single game by double digits. They’re that bad.

Based on this spread, it’s quite apparent that the public doesn’t yet recognize how epically bad Oakland is (my calculated spread is -13.5). Let’s take advantage of that.

SURVIVOR PICK: I’ll be posting some survivor analysis elsewhere, but until that link is set up, the Colts are the way to go in Week 1. Go here to enter our Survivor Pool (FREE entry, $350 prize).

THURSDAY NOTE: If you’re going to bet this game, do it now. Don’t wait around. I have a feeling this spread is going to soar come Sunday.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Told you to lock this in. The spread is now -10 or -10.5 depending on where you’re shopping. It’s still going to rise.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Tons of money coming in on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 89% (55,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Raiders are 11-5 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008.

Andrew Luck is 7-1 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Colts -6.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Colts 38, Raiders 9
Colts -9.5 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Under 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Survivor Pick
Colts 21, Raiders 17

Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games
Arizona at St. Louis, Green Bay at San Francisco, NY Giants at Dallas, Philadelphia at Washington, Houston at San Diego

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)