NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2013

NFL Picks (Preseason 2013): 10-6 (+$720)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2013): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2013): 10-6 (+$720)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 9, 4:28 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 1 NFL Picks – Early Games

Arizona Cardinals (0-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-0)
Line: Rams by 4. Total: 41.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Rams -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Preseason): Rams -3.
Sunday, Sept. 8, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 1 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Rams.

It’s the top of a new page, so time for your 20th reminder! You can win $350 in the WalterFootball.com 2013 NFL Survivor Pool. To enter, just click the link and follow the rules. Entry is FREE, so make sure you sign up for a chance to win $350.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Cardinal fans must be excited because they have a professional quarterback to cheer on for the first time since the Kurt Warner era. Carson Palmer has looked pretty solid in the preseason, minus some red-zone miscues. I’d say those could be fixed, but Palmer had issues with this in Oakland. It’ll help that he has Larry Fitzgerald as an end-zone target though.

The one thing many seem concerned about regarding Arizona’s scoring attack is the offensive line. The unit was atrocious last year and couldn’t protect any of the dreadful quarterbacks under center. However, the group as a whole has improved quite a bit. Eric Winston was signed to play right tackle, which will bump Bobby Massie inside, so that’s two upgrades right there. Jonathan Cooper’s absence is huge, but Levi Brown is back to man the blind side. Brown isn’t that good, but he’s a big boost over what Arizona had there last year.

Protecting Palmer is very key, especially in this matchup because the Rams have a fierce pass rush. Chris Long and Robert Quinn form an excellent defensive end duo, who should still give Brown and Winston issues. Second-year Michael Brockers is also expected to improve. St. Louis will need to pummel Palmer into the turf because its poor safety situation presents a big problem because Palmer can still go deep to his talented receiving corps.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: The Cardinals have a pretty underrated defense themselves. They started strong, but sputtered down the stretch once Calais Campbell and Darnell Dockett were hobbled with injuries. Arizona will be able to put tons of pressure on the quarterback, so it’s a good thing that the Rams upgraded their offensive line by signing Jake Long this offseason. Long actually appears to be healthy for once, so that’s a great sign.

The Rams moved up in the 2013 NFL Draft to snag Tavon Austin, but Sam Bradford still loves to go deep to Chris Givens. I imagine All-Pro corner Patrick Peterson will be all over Givens, so that option won’t be available. Bradford will instead focus on targeting Austin and Jared Cook, so it hurts the Cardinals that they don’t have a particularly strong linebacking corps with Daryl Washington suspended.

St. Louis will also get Daryl Richardson involved. He’s not a very talented runner, but he excels at catching passes out of the backfield. With lots of short and intermediate options like these, Bradford should be able to sustain drives. The key will be converting in the red zone, where like Palmer, Bradford has struggled before.

RECAP: I like the Cardinals a bit. I wish this spread was in the -5.5/-6 area like it was a couple of months ago, but I’ll still take them for a unit.

I feel like this spread should be -3. St. Louis is a bit better than Arizona, but what counters that is the Rams having three tough matchups against the Falcons, Cowboys and 49ers coming up. They might be unfocused for an inferior opponent. I also don’t trust St. Louis laying more than three points; this team is more of a scrappy underdog that claws out close victories. They’re not experienced enough to blow out competent opponents at home.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Still a small lean on the visitor. Nothing has changed.

The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.

The Rams could be more focused on upcoming games against the Falcons, Cowboys and 49ers.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
Slight lean on the visitor.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 61% (29,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Cardinals have won 10 of the last 13 meetings (Rams won the last 2).

Opening Line: Rams -5.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Rams 19, Cardinals 16
Cardinals +4 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Rams 27, Cardinals 24

Green Bay Packers (0-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-0)
Line: 49ers by 4.5. Total: 48.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): 49ers -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Preseason): 49ers -2.5.
Sunday, Sept. 8, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 1 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

If you didn’t catch it, Jerks of the Week for Sept. 2, 2013 is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are the a recap of this past weekend – where 10 of the readers from this site I’ve never met before came to my house to drink and play fantasy football.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: This has to be more about the Packers’ defense because that unit was absolutely humiliated in a divisional-round loss. Colin Kaepernick ran all over the Packers, rushing for a ridiculous 181 yards.

There is no doubt that Green Bay spent all offseason trying to figure how to contain the read-option, so I expect them to be way more prepared for Kaepernick this time around. They also don’t have to worry about Michael Crabtree because the 49ers’ No. 1 receiver is out for the year. San Francisco brought in Anquan Boldin and spent a fourth-round pick on wideout Quinton Patton, but they won’t be able to replace Crabtree’s production right now. Kaepernick and Crabtree had great chemistry going, and that will be missed.

Having said that, the 49ers will still be able to score steadily on Green Bay. They have a powerful offensive line that returns all five starters, and the group should be able to dominate the trenches and open up running lanes for Frank Gore. The Packers can prepare for San Francisco all they want, but they still have problems at inside linebacker.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The 49ers have a dominant defense that can easily put the clamps on one-dimensional offenses. That’s why they’ve been able to beat the Packers recently. Aaron Rodgers still is able to get his numbers, but Green Bay as a whole hasn’t been efficient in their battles against San Francisco.

That would explain what the Packers did in the 2014 NFL Draft. They spent second- and fourth-round picks on Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin, respectively. Franklin hasn’t panned out, but Lacy was outstanding in a preseason game against the Rams. He had a flurry of spin moves and long runs. He definitely adds a new dimension to Green Bay’s offense, which is important because San Francisco now has to game plan for him.

With the 49ers being more focused on Lacy, more opportunities should open up for Aaron Rodgers. The one concern is the blind side; fourth-round rookie David Bakhtiari is making his first professional start against Aldon Smith. Bakhtiari has held his own in the preseason, but he hasn’t been tested for an entire game against an All-Pro pass-rusher quite yet.

RECAP: I like the Packers a bit. They’ve spent their entire offseason preparing for this matchup. Everything they did in the draft was to beat the 49ers. Plus, I like getting points with Rodgers.

I imagine Green Bay will have a good chance to win this contest. I think it’s a field-goal game either way.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still like the Packers for two units. Another 4 p.m. game where nothing has changed.

The Psychology. Edge: Packers.

A “Kitchen Sink” game for the Packers, who have been game planning all season for the read-option.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 57% (44,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Super Bowl Loser Syndrome: Super Bowl losers are 4-15 ATS in their first game the following season.

Aaron Rodgers is 43-24 ATS since 2009 (8-4 ATS as a favorite of 12+).

Aaron Rodgers is 22-12 ATS on the road as long as he’s not favored by 6.5 or more points.

Aaron Rodgers is 10-7 ATS as an underdog.

49ers are 9-4 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+ under Jim Harbaugh.

Opening Line: 49ers -5.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: 49ers 31, Packers 29
Packers +4.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 48.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
49ers 34, Packers 28

New York Giants (0-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-0)
Line: Cowboys by 3.5. Total: 49.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Cowboys -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Preseason): Pick.
Sunday, Sept. 8, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 1 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around. I actually met my ex-girlfriend, Awesome Girl Who Loves Football, this way. We exchanged e-mails about Aaron3619 and then hit it off, ultimately meeting in July 2012.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

I’ve added a second fake account this year – Vivian Williamson. This is based off of Miss Vivian, a security guard at the Philadelphia International Airport, whom I’ve written about in Jerks of the Week (click the link to read about her).

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Tony Romo has to be excited. No, it’s not another boring golf tournament or a hot blonde he can date; this week, he gets to go up against the Giants’ back seven.

New York has major problems on its defense. I have no idea what the front office was thinking when it opted to go with the trio of Dan Connor, Keith Rivers and Spencer Paysinger in the linebacking corps. Things only got worse when 2012 breakout-star Stevie Brown was knocked out for the year in the preseason. Ryan Mundy will take his place, joining the ineffective Corey Webster and Prince Amukamara in a putrid secondary.

Luckily for the Giants, they’re strong up front. They have an incredibly deep defensive front, which includes third-round rookie Damontre Moore, who was unblockable in the preseason. The Cowboys still have issues on their offensive line, so protecting Romo will be an issue. I guess Romo will be pining for golf and/or chicks after all.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants also suffered a major injury on offense when Andre Brown broke his leg in the preseason finale. This wasn’t as big of a deal as losing Stevie Brown, but it’s significant nonetheless. Andre Brown was trusted more as a third-down protector. Besides, if David Wilson goes down, it’ll be up to either Da’Rel Scott or Michael Cox (I almost wrote Michael Scott) to carry the rock.

Having said that, the Giants still match up well against the Cowboys on this side of the ball. Wilson can go the distance on any touch, and he should find running room against a Dallas front that lacks talent in the interior of the defensive line.

Wilson will help Eli Manning by giving him short-yardage situations, which is more of a luxury in this matchup. The Cowboys will have just one of their primary pass-rushers, as Anthony Spencer still hasn’t been cleared to practice because of a knee scope. This is fortunate because first-round rookie Justin Pugh is starting at right tackle. DeMarcus Ware is obviously still an issue, but New York has a talented left tackle in William Beatty to help keep him out of the backfield. With time in the pocket, Manning should be able to beat a secondary that is playing in a new system for the first time.

RECAP: I don’t get why the Cowboys are favored by 3.5. They have a terrible homefield advantage, and they’re definitely not better than the Giants. They also usually find a way to screw up. Whether it’s a costly penalty or a wasted timeout or a missed field goal or a bad sack or a dropped pass or bad clock management, something unfortunate is going to happen to them because they’re so poorly coached.

I’ll gladly take the Giants with a field goal plus the hook. If this spread rises to +4, I may bet another unit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t understand it, but there’s sharp money on the Cowboys. However, before you get scared off the Giants, keep in mind that the sharps have bet Dallas before and lost. The Cowboys always find a way to screw up these sorts of games.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.
Slight lean on the visitor.

Percentage of money on New York: 57% (51,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Giants have won 8 of the last 11 meetings.

Giants are 35-15 ATS on the road since 2006 as long as they’re not favored by 3.5 or more.

Eli Manning is 26-12 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

Cowboys are 7-17 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).

Tony Romo is 11-7 ATS as a starter in September.

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Giants 23, Cowboys 20
Giants +3.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 49.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cowboys 36, Giants 31

Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Washington Redskins (0-0)
Line: Redskins by 4. Total: 52.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Redskins -6 (Griffin) or Redskins -2.5 (Cousins).
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Preseason): Redskins -5.5.
Monday, Sept. 9, 7:00 ET
Discuss Week 1 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Redskins.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, annoying guys like Charles Davis and senile guys like Bob Greise. Here’s what it would sound like if those six clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the nation’s capital, the state of Washington, where the Redskins take on the Eagles. Hello everyone, I’m Kevin Reilly, and it’s great that you’re watching me again for another season. Guys, there are two big story lines in this game. Of course, Robert Griffin is back on the field after a severe knee injury. Guys, do you think it’s unfair that Griffin returned for this game to play my Eagles, and do you think anyone will mind if I sneak up behind him and swing a baseball bat at the back of his knee?

Emmitt: Roger, the baseball bats you thinkin’ of belong in a whole other sport. Baseball bats are use in… uhh… I forgot the name of the sport. But it do not make any sense because bat are an animal that transform into vampire. Why would folk use these deadly animal to hit the ball with themselves?

Davis: There are two main types of bats, Emmitt. One is essentially a wooden stick, while the other is the animal you’re referring to. But did you know there are sub-categories of each? For example, there’s a wood composite bat, which is made of ash wood. Then there’s the aluminum bat, which they use in college, and the ash hardwood bat, which would also be made of ash wood. As for the animals, let’s begin with the Fruit Bat. It should be obvious what they eat. There’s a Hammerhead Bat, an appropriate name for these sorts of bats. And don’t forget about the Little Red Flying Fox. Now, Emmitt, this may sound like Little Red Riding Hood, but don’t get the two confused if you encounter the Little Red Flying Fox!

Reilly: Shut the f*** up, Charles. No one cares. So, what’s the verdict guys? Should I take out RGIII’s knees? Or should I trap him inside a house and light the place on fire? Thoughts?

Joe Theismann: What a terrible person you are, Kevin. How dare you consider injuring or killing RGIII? You probably think this way because you’re fat. You and Matt Millen are fat. I talked to Alfred Morris, and he said that you’re both fat.

Reilly: Fat? Fat!? You’re the one who’s fat and stupid because you hate my Eagles! Millen, are you going to take that from this fat and stupid idiot?

Millen: …

Reilly: What’s wrong, Millen? Say something!

Tollefson: He’s on strike, I believe. Chip Kelly got rid of all red meat at the facility, so Millen couldn’t find any kielbasas for last night’s festivities with Lane Johnson. He had such great kielbasa-related escapades planned, but his dreams came crashing down when he learned that all of the kielbasas here were shipped out.

Emmitt: If I may inject myselves into the conversation, Mark Millen, why do you not just go to the paint store, buy green paint and paint the red meat green? Then the Eagle will not abolish that meat because it have green color instead of red color.

Millen: That… that’s genius! Thank you, Emmitt!

Tollefson: Great. Now I’m going to hear weird noises from his room again while I’m forcing some of the naked Eagles cheerleaders to cook and clean for me. Thanks, Emmitt!

Reilly: Speaking of the Eagles, the Chip Kelly era has begun! There’s no doubt Chip will be successful in the NFL and that the Eagles will go 16-0, but my question is will they win every game by 35 or every game by 55 under Chip? Thoughts?

Griese: Chip? The nurse said she’s going to bring my chips soon.

Reilly: Go back to your coma, old man.

Edwards: I know what the Eagles are going to do! I know what they’re going to do! They’re going to score points! Lots of points! A good amount of points! High-point totals! Insane point totals! Point totals that reach the sky! Point totals that reach the clouds! Point totals that reach the sun! But can’t fly too close to the sun, now! Can’t do it! Shouldn’t do it! The wings will melt close to the sun! You know it’ll melt! Melt away and fall to the ground! And it hurts when you fall to the ground, now! It really hurts! How much does it hurt!? I’ll tell you how much it hurts! It… uhh…

Reilly: Looks like I’ll be locking Herm in the burning building along with RGIII! We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Eagle fans like Kevin Reilly and many I know around the city are excited about the real arrival of Chip Kelly’s offense. QB Eagles No. 7 – or QB Dog Killer, if you prefer – looked exceptional running Kelly’s high-tempo attack in the preseason. This has caused the spread to drop a point in Philadelphia’s direction despite the announcement that Robert Griffin would be in the lineup.

As I wrote earlier, I’m a bit skeptical. Steve Spurrier’s fun-and-gun offense averaged more than 32 points per game in the 2002 preseason, but it sputtered once the real games commenced. The reason for this isn’t because of the style of attack; it had more to do with the personnel. Spurrier relied on crap quarterbacks he coached in college (as well as the pedestrian Patrick Ramsey) to run his team. Had Spurrier possessed a real NFL signal-caller, he would’ve had more success. Now, QBDK is much better than Ramsey, Danny Wuerffel or Shane Matthews, but he’s still not very good. QBDK is a turnover machine who can’t read defenses. Jim Haslett, the defensive coordinator for the Redskins, runs complicated schemes and will undoubtedly confuse the hell out of QBDK.

The Eagles will attempt to run the ball with LeSean McCoy, and they should have success. McCoy looked much sprier this preseason than he did last year, and I’m not a fan of Washington still starting London Fletcher, who looked like he was playing on one leg in 2012. McCoy and the occasional big play from QBDK will keep this contest interesting.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Ultimately though, the Eagles’ stop unit will have to come up with stops, and I just don’t see that happening. Philadelphia has a truly awful defense that won’t be able to do any of the three basic things (stop the run, stop the pass, get to the quarterback). For instance, the Patriots marched 80 yards down the field on the Eagles in the preseason opener by just running the ball. The Redskins pound the rock much more effectively than New England.

And then there’s the whole dealing-with-Robert Griffin issue. RGIII seems to be at 100 percent by all accounts, so he’ll have no issues eluding Philadelphia’s defenders. He may not even have to run that much because the Eagles have such a lacking pass rush.

And then there’s Philadelphia’s secondary, which is beyond bad. I’m not sure if the corners (Bradley Fletcher, Cary Williams) are worse than the safeties (Patrick Chung, Nate Allen), but Griffin will torch them all by launching bombs to Pierre Garcon and his other weapons. The Redskins won’t be punting much Monday night.

RECAP: Vegas set this spread at -3.5, which means the Redskins are just half a point better than the Eagles according to public perception. That’s certainly not reality. My calculated line is -5.5, and that’s with some minor trends in Philadelphia’s favor bumping the number down. Washington is far superior to Philadelphia and could win this matchup by double digits.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.
Slight action on the home favorite.

Percentage of money on Washington: 60% (74,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Redskins have won the last 2 meetings.

Redskins are 6-12 ATS in September home games since 2001.

Opening Line: Redskins -4.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Redskins 38, Eagles 27
Redskins -4 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 52 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 33, Redskins 27

Houston Texans (0-0) at San Diego Chargers (0-0)
Line: Texans by 5. Total: 45.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Texans -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Preseason): Texans -2.5.
Monday, Sept. 9, 10:15 ET
Discuss Week 1 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Texans.

This week on Monday Night Football, we’ll be able to watch two games. Chris Berman and Trent Dilfer will be announcing the second one. It’s going to be brutal. Here’s what it’ll sound like:

Berman: Touchdown, Texans! Matt “Stump the” Schaub with a great pass to “Wish Upon” Lestar Jean. Teeeeexans win an early lead, Trent.

Dilfer: And this is why I call Matt Schaub an elephant quarterback, Boom. Elephants have long noses, and this is a long pass to Lestar Jean for the touchdown.

Berman: And now the Chargers come back! Philip “Cry Me a” Rivers with a dump-off pass to Ryan “Cory and Eric” Mathews for a score. I guess Mr. Feeny wasn’t there to stop them, Trent! San Dieeegoooo Suuuuper Chaaaargers!

Dilfer: And this is why I call Ryan Mathews a Minkus running back. Minkus was the nerd in Boy Meets World, and he was in the same class as Cory Matthews, who has the same last name as Ryan Mathews, minus the extra T, so that’s why Ryan Mathews is a Minkus running back.

Ugh. I’m not looking forward to this game. On the bright side, Girl Meets World in 2014!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Ryan Mathews might be a Minkus running back, but Arian Foster is a Darren McFadden one because he’s hurt. Foster has been dealing with multiple injuries in recent months, thanks to a ridiculous workload over the past couple of seasons. Foster didn’t play in the entire preseason, but he’s expected to suit up for this contest. However, it’s worth noting that Foster will split touches with Ben Tate, who will probably be the better option this year. Tate’s in a contract season, and he looked phenomenal this August.

The Chargers don’t seem like they’re going to be particularly weak against the rush, given that they have a stout defensive front with some solid linebackers. Having said that, the Texans run the ball better than most teams because of their offensive line, blocking scheme and talent of their backs.

Foster and Tate figure to be potent enough to give Matt Schaub plenty of opportunities to perform his patented play-action bootlegs. Schaub, along with Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels, should be able to torch a San Diego pass defense that features a very shaky secondary in which Derek Cox and Shareece Wright are the starting cornerbacks.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Texans were never the same defensively when they lost Brian Cushing to a torn ACL last season. Cushing is back, and the front office believes he’s healthy enough to offer him a 6-year, $55 million extension. With Cushing back in the mix, Houston’s stop unit is back in full force, save for defensive end Antonio Smith, who is suspended for this game.

Not having Smith will hurt, but it won’t be the end of the world because the Texans will be able to apply tons of pressure on Philip Rivers. The Chargers drafted right tackle D.J. Fluker in the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft, but while he’s great at opening running lanes, he’s not much of a pass-protector. Still, he’s better than whatever San Diego has on the blind side. Rivers, whose skills appear to have diminished over the past couple of seasons, is going to have to endure another year of taking way too many sacks.

If the Chargers can’t block, I don’t see how they’re going to maintain many successful drives against the Texans. Rivers just doesn’t have the firepower around him to do so.

RECAP: I considered betting a unit on the Chargers because my calculated spread is -2.5; it would be -3.5/-4ish, but Smith’s suspension and the Circadian rhythms involved (Houston is playing way too late) brought the number down. However, I just can’t bring myself to do it. I was burned so many times by this stupid San Diego team last year that I feel like a PTSD victim. RAY RICE DIDN’T CONVERT THAT 4TH-AND-29 AAACCCKKKKK!!!

The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.

Circadian rhythms will hurt the Texans, who are playing an obscenely late game.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

No surprise that everyone’s betting on Houston.

Percentage of money on Houston: 86% (93,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Texans are 2-5 ATS on kickoff weekends since 2004.

Opening Line: Texans -2.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Texans 20, Chargers 18
Chargers +5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 31, Chargers 28

Week 1 NFL Picks – Early Games
Baltimore at Denver, New England at Buffalo, Cincinnati at Chicago, Miami at Cleveland, Atlanta at New Orleans, Tampa Bay at NY Jets, Tennessee at Pittsburgh, Minnesota at Detroit, Oakland at Indianapolis, Seattle at Carolina, Kansas City at Jacksonville

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Steelers PK, Jets +9.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110

Moneyline Underdog: Jets +160 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$80

Moneyline Underdog: Vikings +180 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline Underdog: Giants +160 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Player Prop: Tom Brady TD passes over 2.5 +100 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)