NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2013

NFL Picks (Preseason 2013): 10-6 (+$720)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2013): 4-11-1 (-$1,290)

NFL Picks (2013): 4-11-1 (-$570)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 16, 5:14 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 2 NFL Picks – Late Games

New York Jets (1-0) at New England Patriots (1-0)
Line: Patriots by 11. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -12.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 1): Patriots -12.
Thursday, Sept. 12, 8:25 ET
Discuss Week 2 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

WEEK 1 RECAP: Frustrated, but encouraged. That’s how I feel despite going 4-11-1 for -$1,290 in Week 1. Allow me to explain:

I lost two units on the Panthers +3.5. They were in position to kick a covering field goal or score a winning touchdown with about five minutes remaining, but DeAngelo Williams lost a fumble on the 8-yard line. Carolina was clearly the right side, but the wrong result. I have no regrets about taking them.

The 49ers needed a last-second, front-door field goal (not to mention a bogus touchdown given to them earlier by the inept officials) to cover against the Packers. Green Bay led in the fourth quarter as 4.5-point underdogs. I feel as though they were the right side. No regrets here either.

The Giants… ugh. Six freaking turnovers – including two that were returned for touchdowns – and yet they lost by just five points. Take away just one of those turnovers, and the underdog probably covers. I went against the Cowboys thinking they’d find a way to shoot themselves in the foot like they always do, but New York was the team that committed egregious errors. The Giants were in position to win the game in the fourth quarter despite playing very sloppy football, so I don’t think wagering on them as 3.5-point dogs was a bad bet.

I’ve mentioned the Ravens already. They were up 17-14 in the third quarter, but simply collapsed because Michael Oher got hurt (the John Harbaugh non-challenge didn’t help either). It’s impossible to predict in-game injuries, and this was a devastating one. Fifth-round rookie Ricky Wagner couldn’t block Shaun Phillips. Oher’s absence also eliminated the running attack, which was working well until that point. I’m not saying Baltimore was the right side, but the team was absolutely screwed by Oher’s injury. It completely changed the game. I feel as though if this Denver-Baltimore matchup were replayed on 100 occasions, the Ravens would stay within 7.5 points at least 55-60 percent of the time.

I absolutely blew the Colts-Raiders and Redskins-Eagles selections – I underestimated how rusty Robert Griffin would be and how ineptly Indianapolis’ defense would play even against a dumb quarterback like Terrelle Pryor – and I’m not sure what to make of the Vikings-Lions contest because Minnesota completely self-destructed in the fourth quarter (a roughing-the-passer penalty gave the Lions a first down and an eventual touchdown on a 3rd-and-18; Detroit didn’t score after that, and it was 27-24 at that point).

Let’s just say though that if I had gotten the Carolina, Green Bay and New York picks correct – I feel that’s conservative because I also deserved either one of Baltimore or Minnesota – I would have finished in the black.

So that’s why I’m frustrated, but encouraged. I had the right side on all but two of my bets, but I was screwed repeatedly throughout Week 1. Hopefully I can have better luck going forward because I feel as though my projected spreads and pick database worked.

Week 2 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The way people are talking about the Patriots, you’d think they were stuck on two points all afternoon in their last game like the Steelers were. The Patriots scored enough to win. Plus, think about it this way – if Tom Brady doesn’t fumble the snap at the goal line and Stevan Ridley doesn’t have a fumble returned for a touchdown in Buffalo territory, no one would be talking about New England’s struggles.

The injuries are a concern though. Danny Amendola is likely out, and Zach Sudfeld’s status is up in the air. That leaves Julian Edelman and Brady’s No. 1 wideout. Brady loves throwing to Edelman, but I doubt Rex Ryan is losing any sleep over defending a backup slot receiver. Kenbrell Thompkins is also in the lineup, but he performed poorly in the opener with some typical rookie mistakes.

Having said that, we’re still talking about Brady. He has a Super Bowl ring throwing to the likes of David Patten and David Givens. Besides, he has a strong running game to support him. Ridley was benched for his fumble, but he’s still a talented back who will retain his job. The Jets are normally tough to run against, but the threat of Brady usually opens things up for Ridley and the other New England runners; Ridley had a 21-97 line at New York last year.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Geno Smith had a bit of a shaky start to his professional debut, but came through in the clutch against the Buccaneers. Still, this was at home versus a pedestrian Tampa Bay team that didn’t ask the rookie to engage in a shootout. Smith will have to play on the road as a pro for the first time, and he’ll be asked to do so on short rest. That’s a very difficult proposition. Remember, this is a guy who tossed three picks and ran out of the back of the end zone in a preseason tilt, so let’s not forget that because of a home victory over the lousy Buccaneers.

The Jets will want to establish the run to take some pressure off of Smith, but that will prove to be taxing; New England just limited C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson to 3.65 yards per carry. Bilal Powell and Chris Ivory aren’t nearly as talented as Buffalo’s duo. Neither back will get much, forcing Smith into unfavorable down-and-distance situations. E.J. Manuel was able to convert some of those, but he had the luxury of playing in front of his home crowd and throwing to skilled weapons. All Smith has to work with are Kellen Winslow and Stephen Hill.

RECAP: I know better than to lay units on Thursday night. If I had to bet this game, however, I’d go with the host, simply because it’s a short week. If you look below, you’ll see that double-digit underdogs are just 5-14 against the spread on Thursdays. There’s a reason for this: Bad teams need longer to prepare to stay competitive with superior opponents. If this matchup were on a Sunday, I’d probably grab the points, but I believe New England is the right side.

SURVIVOR PICK: The only easier game the Patriots will have all year is Tampa Bay next week, and that’s when the Broncos host the Raiders. New England should be able to triumph against a raw rookie quarterback playing on just three days of rest.

Speaking of Survivor, go to our new Survivor Pool Analysis page to see a tally of how many times each team is being picked.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread was -12.5 a week ago. It’s now -11, so there’s value with the host. I can’t bet on either side because I suck on Thursday nights, but I do like the under.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New England: 58% (60,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 17 of the last 21 meetings.

History: Home Team has won 6 of the last 9 meetings.

Underdogs of 10+ on Thursday Night Football coming off standard rest are 5-14 ATS since 1992.

Patriots are 40-24 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Tom Brady is 148-49 as a starter (113-79 ATS).

Opening Line: Patriots -10.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Patriots 22, Jets 6
Patriots -11.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 43.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Survivor Pick (1-0)
Patriots 13, Jets 10

San Diego Chargers (0-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)
Line: Eagles by 7. Total: 54.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Eagles -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 1): Eagles -7.5.
Sunday, Sept. 15, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 2 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Eagles.

VEGAS RECAP: The house made out with a big weekend, as four of the highly bet teams (New England, Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, Houston) failed to cover. The public won with the Chiefs and Seahawks.

I’ll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I’ll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Ah, so that’s what Chip Kelly’s offense looks like. The Eagles scored in a flash in the first quarter, as the Redskins didn’t know what hit them. If the quarterback was able to throw accurately, Philadelphia would’ve posted at least 35 by halftime.

Defensive coordinators will be able to solve Kelly’s attack and devise some sort of strategy. The Eagles have a mentally inept quarterback at the helm, after all. The Chargers, however, aren’t the team to give the rest of the league any sort of blueprint. Their inside linebackers and secondary (save for Eric Weddle) were pathetic versus the Texans during their second-half meltdown. They offered very little resistance against Matt Schaub, and they looked helpless trying to tackle Ben Tate. Getting Manti Te’o back will definitely help because his replacement, Bront Bird, struggled immensely in the opener. Unfortunately for San Diego, Te’o doesn’t seem to be due back anytime soon.

The Eagles just have too much of an edge on this side of the ball, as LeSean McCoy should have another big game. Kelly’s offense can be stopped by forcing QBDK into poor decisions, but the Chargers just don’t have the personnel to do that.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: I’m not sure the Chargers have the personnel to score much either. Their offensive line is a sieve, which doesn’t bode well for this affair because the Eagles appear to have a strong pass rush. They tallied three sacks on Robert Griffin on Monday night – a figure that would’ve been greater if Griffin wasn’t so elusive. Philadelphia is very familiar with the left tackle, King Dunlap, so the defenders will undoubtedly find a way to get by him.

Philip Rivers could barely do anything against the Texans once they found a way to rattle him. That’s been the case with Rivers ever since he lost Darren Sproles a few offseasons ago. He just has no potent safety valve – I have no idea why Danny Woodhead isn’t being utilized more – so he needs great protection to find Antonio Gates and his mediocre receivers downfield. The Chargers do have a bit of a matchup edge here, as Bradley Fletcher will likely be out with a concussion (shocker that he’s hurt). But ultimately it’ll depend on Rivers getting time in the pocket, and I just don’t see that happening.

The Chargers won’t be able to run the ball either. The Eagles limited Alfred Morris and the other Washington backs to just 3.85 yards per carry. Morris is in a much better situation than Ryan Mathews, who inexplicably played just 20 snaps in the opener. The timeshare of Mathews, Woodhead and Ronnie Brown is not going to scare defensive coordinator Billy Davis.

RECAP: Even when factoring in San Diego enduring a brutal, 10 a.m. local start, this spread is right where it should be. I have the Eagles at -7.5, and that’s exactly what the number is. I’m uncomfortable laying more than a touchdown with an unknown like Philadelphia, but that’s the direction I would lean if I were betting this game. The Chargers stink and will likely be reeling because of the early start.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is a tough game to handicap. I feel like the spread is right where it should be. I’d stay away.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

No surprise the public is leaning toward the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 75% (50,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Eagles -7.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Eagles 34, Chargers 23
Eagles -7 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 54.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chargers 33, Eagles 30

Cleveland Browns (0-1) at Baltimore Ravens (0-1)
Line: Ravens by 7. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 1): Ravens -6.5.
Sunday, Sept. 15, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 2 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

HATE MAIL: Another week, another stack of hate mails. These are from the comment boards:

This website is a joke ran by a douche with non factual bias information. Get a life or do everyone a favor and delete this pos website.

Hey, hey, hey, hey, hey… I am a douche, but I definitely use factual information, bub.

Time for Walter to dust off his magic 8-ball & make even more stupid predictions!

Ugh, how many times do I have to tell you? I don’t use a Magic 8 Ball. I blindfold myself and throw darts to determine my picks.

So sick of your Alex Smith hate. You’re such a POS.

Sorry, bro. I know you whack off to pictures of Alex Smith, but that doesn’t make him a good quarterback.

What’s your excuse this year Walt?

Plenty of excuses: Syria, Miley Cyrus… but the main thing is moving all of this extra content to different pages. It’s very taxing!

I thank you again Walt, faded you all of last year and had one of my best seasons. So far another great start to my bankroll. Keep it up 🙂

I’ll try. Glad I could make you money!

3-11, Great start Walt!!!

Stop it. I went 3-10-1. Get yo fax straight.

WOW!! Those picks were – I eat raw pigeons, and dad still helps me wipe. Get out of my life Ronald Reagan. Ha! Buy my bathroom trashcan with your pumpkins.

Umm… I hope someone who knows you calls the mental hospital because I’m concerned for your neighbors.

SAME OLD STORY, WALT CAN’T JUDGE A GAME TO SAVE HIS SOUL. LOOKS LIKE MANNING IS ALOT BETTER THAN HE THOUGHT.

I have no soul to be saved, so maybe that’s why I can’t “judge” a game.

Wassup Dumbo?! Wally you ugly skunk, I thought you learned your lesson from last year. You absolutely suck on Thursdays!!

Yeah, but I suck on Sundays. And Mondays too. And Saturdays when there are playoff games. It doesn’t matter what day of the week it is, really.

I received the following in my Live Kickoff Blog:

Walk it looks like you need a new job. This whole handicapping thing isn’t working for you. You are just bad.

I’ve apparently changed my name to Walk. But even if I were bothered by feedback like this, I wouldn’t say I’m bad because of this game. The Ravens had full control until two of their key players went down with injuries and Harbaugh screwed up that challenge.

Is that all you do is make excuses like a kid? Be a man and own up.

NO! I WANT TO BE A KID AND MAKE EXCUSES!!!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Joe Flacco seldom shows any emotion, but how pissed do you think he was while watching the 49ers-Packers game Sunday afternoon? Anquan Boldin was unstoppable – I’m not exactly sure how he gets better with age – and all the Ravens obtained for him was a lousy sixth-round pick. The player Baltimore took in that round? Someone named Kapron Lewis-Moore, who is currently on the practice squad. Yeah, that was definitely a fair deal.

With Boldin gone and both Dennis Pitta and Jacoby Jones injured, Flacco doesn’t have anyone reliable to throw to downfield besides Torrey Smith. That’ll be a problem in this matchup because Joe Haden, one of the elite cornerbacks in the NFL, will smother Smith. This means that Flacco will have to look elsewhere. So, when he’s not checking it down to Ray Rice, he’ll have to fire passes to Marlon Brown, Brandon Stokley, Ed Dickson and Dallas Clark. Stokley is OK and Brown has shown some promise, but neither Dickson nor Clark could catch the ball if their lives depended on it.

The Ravens will obviously have to establish Rice on the ground. Right tackle Michael Oher will be back, which is a plus, but the Browns are stout versus the run. They just limited Lamar Miller to a ridiculous three yards on 10 carries. If they can force Flacco into third-and-long situations, I like their chances of applying pressure on him. Newly signed defensive end Desmond Bryant looked like a stud in the opener, so he should be able to dominate Baltimore’s questionable offensive front.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns have their own offensive issues. Trent Richardson actually ran pretty well against Miami’s tough defense last week, but he was given just five carries in the second half, and only 15 touches overall. That’s just terrible coaching. With Josh Gordon out, Richardson is the only play-maker on Cleveland’s scoring attack. It was absolutely ridiculous to keep the ball out of his hands.

I trust the Browns have learned their lesson and will feature Richardson more prominently in this matchup. That’s a good thing because the Ravens still have a quality defense – despite the seven Peyton Manning touchdowns – that should be able to feast on one-dimensional offenses. Cleveland certainly has that. Brandon Weeden displayed terrible accuracy in the loss to Miami, completing just 49.1 percent of his passes. Drops were an issue – one of his three picks bounced off Greg Little’s hands – but with Gordon still sidelined with a suspension, there’s no reason to think that this is going to improve.

One thing that disappointed me about Cleveland’s Week 1 loss was the play of right tackle Mitchell Schwartz. The California product had a solid rookie campaign, but looked completely helpless, as he surrendered three sacks. Elvis Dumervil is up next…

RECAP: I’m wondering why this spread is so small, considering the obscene amount of action on the host. It pisses me off because I’d take Cleveland at a higher number (I still think the public would play Baltimore at -9, for example).

Everyone’s expecting the Ravens in a cakewalk, but I’m not. They have an anemic offense that can’t be trusted to cover any spread greater than a touchdown. Think about it this way: If the Browns score 10 points like they did last week, do you absolutely trust Flacco and his band of pathetic receivers and tight ends (Torrey Smith being eliminated by Haden) to post 17 on the scoreboard against a pretty tough defense? I don’t. Unfortunately, there’s not enough line value to bet Cleveland.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is another game that should land close to the spread. There’s still plenty of action on the Ravens, but the Browns run the ball well and play great defense, so they should be able to keep it close.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

The Ravens looked bad last week, but the Browns were much worse.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 80% (33,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

History: Ravens have won the last 10 meetings (road team has covered the last 7).

John Harbaugh is 7-1 ATS following a loss of 10+.

Opening Line: Ravens -6.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Ravens 17, Browns 13
Browns +7 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 14, Browns 6

Tennessee Titans (1-0) at Houston Texans (1-0)
Line: Texans by 8. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -9.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 1): Texans -6.5.
Sunday, Sept. 15, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 2 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Texans.

The most illiterate sports bettor in the world is a man named the Real John Moss. He loves to e-mail me and talk to me on G-chat. I’ve posted all of the messages he’s sent me over the years, including those in 2012. I haven’t heard from him all summer, but he sent me an e-mail near the end of the season opener. I’m putting Real John Moss content on its own page, so click the link to see the e-mail.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: It took a while for the Texans to get going, but they were pretty unstoppable during their second-half rally at San Diego. Matt Schaub misfired on just 11 of his 45 attempts, throwing three touchdowns in the process. He has more weapons than ever; DeAndre Hopkins gives Houston a No. 2 receiver for the first time in franchise history, while Garrett Graham is a capable second tight end to go along with a healthy Owen Daniels. Oh, and then there’s Andre Johnson, of course, who has shown no signs of slowing down.

Having said all of that, the Texans were able to look terrific Monday night because the Chargers have a joke of a defense. The Titans, meanwhile, have upgraded their stop unit. Defensive tackle Jurrell Casey is going to have a monstrous campaign; he notched two sacks last week at Pittsburgh. With Casey disrupting the interior and Tennessee’s defensive coaches sending blitzers from all over the place, Schaub will have a much more difficult matchup this time around.

Of course, the Titans will have to worry about the run as well. They did a great job of bottling up Isaac Redman, but that was a very simple task compared to bringing down Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Gary Kubiak actually said that he regrets not giving the latter more touches Monday night. Tate was so much better than Foster; it wasn’t even close. At any rate, I’m interested in seeing how Tennessee holds up against Houston’s dominant ground attack.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The way to beat the Texans, as Trent Dilfer illustrated Monday night, is to have an elite quarterback because Wade Phillips’ defense has yet to prove that they can beat a team that possesses one. The Titans certainly do not.

However, that doesn’t mean that Tennessee will be blanked on the scoreboard or anything. Chris Johnson is still a stud capable of going the distance every time he touches the ball. He rushed for 141 yards against the Texans in the first matchup last year (when Houston still had a healthy Brian Cushing), and this was without talented guards Chance Warmack and Andy Levitre.

Having Johnson run well is obviously very important because the Texans have a dominant defensive front capable of putting great pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Everyone knows about J.J. Watt, but defensive end Antonio Smith is also a great player. He served a one-game suspension last week, but will be back in the lineup.

RECAP: I think this spread is too high. It would’ve been appropriate last year, but the Titans have improved. They’ve upgraded their defense and bolstered the interior of their offensive line. They’ve also undoubtedly spent the entire offseason trying to figure out a game plan for the Texans, who swept them in 2012.

My number is Houston -6.5, so I feel like Tennessee should be able to hang around and stay within double digits. I’m willing to bet a couple of units on the visiting underdog.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I actually had a dream that the Texans were leading the Titans heading into the fourth quarter, 81-60. Yeah, I don’t know… But I still like Tennessee for two units.

The Psychology. Edge: Titans.

The Titans spent the entire offseason preparing for this game. The Texans could be a bit tired after that crazy comeback.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

A decent lean on the host.

Percentage of money on Houston: 68% (29,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Texans have won the last 2 meetings.

Mike Munchak is 3-9 ATS playing a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Texans -8.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Dome.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Texans 21, Titans 16
Titans +8 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 30, Titans 24

Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (1-0)
Line: Colts by 3. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Colts -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 1): Colts -1.5.
Sunday, Sept. 15, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 2 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal discussed this on their podcast, so I want to reiterate it: It’s an absolute joke that there were only two 4 p.m. games in Week 1. There were two reasons why this happened: First, FOX wanted everyone to see 49ers-Packers. In doing so, they were a**holes to the Seahawks, who nearly lost one of those dreaded 10 a.m. local start times. Seattle-Carolina should’ve been at 4.

And second, CBS didn’t have any 4 p.m. contests because they wanted to broadcast tennis. TENNIS!!! Who the hell wants to watch tennis? The matches are super long and super boring. The ball just goes back and forth, and the only interruption is when the tennis players stop and whine about the ball being out of bounds or whatever. It’s amazing that CBS doesn’t understand that no one in their right mind would watch tennis over the NFL. Sure, there might be some crazy mental hospital patients who might be tuning in – and not to mention cats, who undoubtedly enjoy watching the ball go back and forth – but no functioning human being will buy any of the ads showcased during these silly tennis matches.

2. Of course, I’m contractually obligated to make fun of ESPN. The big news at the Worldwide Leader is that Ray Lewis joined Sunday NFL Countdown (or NFL Sunday Countdown, according to Keyshawn Johnson). I enjoyed reading two of the comments on ProFootballTalk about this:

ESPN’s take: Since we’re comfortable with sexual harassment in the workplace, we have no issue with murder outside it.

Of course they’re comfortable with his history. They hire an alarming amount of low-class former athletes with shady pasts, whether its PEDs or criminal offenses. ESPN has no shame.

I happened to enjoy Lewis when he talked about off-the-field issues and he said, “I had no character flaws.”

Sure, if you don’t count the guy you killed!

3. Speaking of the Sunday NFL Countdown crew, the analysts spent some time discussing their key storylines for this season. Some of them were semi-interesting, but then Keyshawn Johnson gave us his big storyline:

“There are now nine NFL quarterbacks who are African American quarterbacks in the NFL.”

Seriously, who the hell cares? I love when people say race shouldn’t matter, yet these dopes on TV shove race down our throat. If everyone is equal, it shouldn’t matter if there are nine or 29 black quarterbacks in the NFL.

And it’s “black;” not “African American.” Robert Griffin, Josh Freeman, Terrelle Pryor, etc. are not from Africa as far as I know. If they’re African American, then every single white person in this country should refer to themselves “European American,” and only crazy people who watch tennis would call themselves that.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Indianapolis’ defensive performance last week was downright disgraceful. The Raiders have a quarterback who can’t read defenses, receivers who can’t catch passes and offensive linemen who wouldn’t even be on most NFL rosters, yet Oakland was in position to win the game at the end.

The Dolphins don’t have a very good offensive line, but they have much better personnel than Oakland. Ryan Tannehill was a solid 24-of-38 for 272 yards, one touchdown and an interception against a stout Cleveland defense, so he shouldn’t have any issues navigating through Indianapolis’ anemic unit. He’ll also have Mike Wallace at his disposal for the first time; Wallace was blanketed by Joe Haden this past Sunday, which is why Tannehill targeted Brian Hartline a ridiculous 16 times. Wallace is overrated, but defenses respect him. That’ll open up more opportunities underneath for Miami.

Of course, something the Dolphins must improve on is running the ball. Lamar Miller managed a laughable three yards on 10 carries. But again, that was Cleveland’s dominant defense doing a great job. The Colts don’t have the personnel to completely shut down Miller like that.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Andrew Luck’s ability to come through in the clutch is amazing. If he has the ball and needs to score a touchdown at the end of the game, he’s going to do it. It’s unbelievable. Unfortunately, he has yet to master the art of putting the opposition away early, probably because the talent around him is lacking. The Colts went up 14-0 on the Raiders, but couldn’t score after that until the end of the fourth quarter. Miami’s defense is much better than Oakland’s, so this could be an issue.

The Colts have two offensive problems: They can’t run the ball or pass protect. Ahmad Bradshaw doesn’t appear to be in football shape, which is why Vick Ballard is handling most of the workload. And how exactly did the Raiders put so much pressure on Luck despite having no NFL-caliber pass-rushers outside of Lamarr Houston? Part of the issue was that stout blocking tight end Dwayne Allen exited midway through the game with an injury, but left tackle Anthony Castonzo looked like a turnstile. How exactly are he and Gosder Cherilus going to block Cameron Wake and Dion Jordan? Allen should be back, and that’ll help, but I don’t have much faith in Indianapolis’ ability to keep Miami out of the backfield.

Having said that, Luck will still score a decent amount of points because he’s just that good. It also helps that Reggie Wayne is still playing very well. I like him in a matchup against either of Miami’s cornerbacks.

RECAP: This should be a close game, and I have a feeling that Luck will find a way to somehow win at the very end again. I think Indianapolis will triumph by 1-3 points (my projected spread is Colts -1.5), so I’d take the underdog if I had to. It’s way too tight of a matchup to bet, however.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I personally don’t have a feel for this game, but there is a ton of sharp money coming in on the Dolphins.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

A surprising amount of action on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 70% (31,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Dolphins are 15-5 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning record since 2007.

Underdog is 40-18 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 57 games.

Andrew Luck is 7-2 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Colts 21, Dolphins 20
Dolphins +3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Dolphins 24, Colts 20

Carolina Panthers (0-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-1)
Line: Panthers by 3.5. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Panthers -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 1): Bills -3.
Sunday, Sept. 15, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 2 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Panthers.

More NFL notes:

4. One last note on TV announcers. FOX debuted Ronde Barber as the color analyst in the St. Louis-Arizona game. I missed it, but Facebook friend Steve T. said that Barber referred to Larry Fitzgerald as “Larry Johnson.”

I’m sick and tired of these former players who suck as color analysts. Why do we need to hear them because they’ve played the game before? I’d rather have two analysts who have never stepped onto a football field. One could handle the sports betting aspect of it. The other could specialize in fantasy. I think it makes sense because the primary reasons people watch football are gambling and fantasy. I’d like to see one network pair their play-by-play guy with people like Fezzik and some sharp fantasy analyst (not Matthew Berry because he’s a fantasy baseball guy).

5. If you haven’t heard, Peter King stated that he will refuse to say the word “Redskins” in his column going forward. He will instead refer to them as the “Washington football team.”

How arrogant is that? What sort of douche refuses to say the name of a team or a player in his writing? As punishment for King, I will now refer to him as Peter “Redskins lover” King. For example, I will write something like this:

“Peter ‘Redskins lover’ King” picked Robert Griffin and the Redskins to beat QB Dog Killer and the Eagles.”

Oh, and the Redskins team name needs to stay.

6. There were no new team names this season, but the Dolphins and Jaguars have new logos. I don’t mind the Jacksonville one, but the Miami logo is just stupid. It looks like a freaking whale. And where’d the helmet go? I already miss the old Dolphin.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: There’s no doubt about it – Cam Newton is struggling. He played poorly last preseason, and that trickled into the real action. He eventually got his act together and finished on a strong note, but he has reverted to September 2012 status. Unfortunately for Newton, there’s no Rob Chudzinski to bail him out this time. The Panthers have a new offensive coordinator, which appears to have stunted Newton’s development.

It doesn’t help Newton’s cause that the offensive line sucks. Right tackle and both guard positions are major problem areas. The Bills have a solid front seven comprised of studs like Marcell Dareus, Kyle Williams, and of course, Mario Williams. They should be able to contain DeAngelo Williams (an easy feat) and put pressure on Newton, forcing him to scramble – which he was reluctant to do in the opener.

The concern for the Bills’ defense right now is that cornerback Stephon Gilmore and safety Jairus Byrd are dealing with injuries. However, I just don’t think the Panthers have the personnel to take advantage of this. After all, Tom Brady posted just 23 points, so why would we expect the inaccurate Newton to have more success?

BUFFALO OFFENSE: I mentioned that the Bills have a pretty solid front seven. Well, the Panthers just might have the best front seven in all of football. Charles Johnson, Star Lotulelei and Greg Hardy are all capable of putting great pressure on the quarterback, while the linebacking corps is exceptional when healthy. The secondary has some glaring holes, but that’s not an issue if the opposing passer has no time to throw.

You have to believe E.J. Manuel will find all of this overwhelming. It’s natural to think that he could be forced into several turnovers, but he has two things going for him: He’s playing at home and has several talented weapons at his disposal. Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods should be able to get open against a pair of pedestrian cornerbacks.

And then, of course, there’s C.J. Spiller, who’s capable of going the distance any time he touches the football. Spiller wasn’t utilized nearly as much as expected in the opener because of a first-quarter fumble. Spiller did have eight touches on the first 13 plays from scrimmage, so Buffalo will feed him the ball as long as he doesn’t cough it up again. Manuel will need Spiller to be mistake-free while going up against such a strong defense.

RECAP: Both teams are coming off emotional losses, but I don’t think it’ll affect the Bills as much for two reasons: First, they’re underdogs, so it’s not like they’re in a position to be flat. Second, they’re a young team that has to feel encouraged that they hung with the Patriots. Conversely, I believe Carolina will be flat after its loss to the Seahawks. The Panthers brought the kitchen sink last week, but came up just a bit short.

With that in mind, I like the Bills a great deal; I have them as three-point favorites when considering all of the dynamics. Newton is struggling right now and has no business being a road favorite over a competent team. Let’s take advantage of that.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is still my favorite pick of the week. The Panthers are grossly overrated and should not be road favorites over a competent team. Cam Newton is just not himself right now. He misses Rob Chudzinski.

The Psychology. Edge: Bills.

The Panthers brought the kitchen sink against the Seahawks, but lost an emotional game. The Bills also had a tough defeat, but they’re a young team that has to feel optimistic that they were able to contend with the Patriots.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
I’m surprised there’s not more money on the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 52% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Home underdogs following a loss as a home underdog are 47-23 ATS since 2002 (as long as they’re not dogs of 14+).

Bills are 14-8 ATS after playing the New England Patriots since 1999.

Bills are 24-17 ATS against losing teams since 2006.

Opening Line: Panthers -2.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Bills 20, Panthers 16
Bills +3.5 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bills 24, Panthers 23

St. Louis Rams (1-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-1)
Line: Falcons by 6. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Falcons -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 1): Falcons -4.
Sunday, Sept. 15, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 2 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well.

Random College Football Notes:

1. I can’t begin any discussion about college football without bringing up what happened during halftime of the Michigan-Notre Dame game. If you don’t know what I’m talking about, you missed one of the most ridiculous moments in college football history:

First of all, I guess this is what happens when you smoke weed, snort coke and take LSD all at the same time. Second, what is ESPN thinking by putting this has-been clown on TV? When’s the last time Eminem had a hit song, 2002? Why’s he going to sing the intro to college football? Who’s he going to appeal to besides the 25-to-40-year-old gangsta wanna-be demographic?

2. Speaking of Notre Dame, I thought this sign was absolutely hilarious:

You know, I can see why Manti Te’o had the hots for that chick.

3. I usually complain about my wrong NFL picks, but I’d like to rant a bit about my two-unit loss in the Cincinnati-Illinois contest. I woke up around 1 Saturday afternoon. I turned on the TV just in time to see Illinois kicking a field goal to make it 21-0. I figured I just had the wrong side and went about my day.

I checked back in once I saw that Cincinnati was driving, down 21-10. They had the ball on the Illinois 2-yard line. A touchdown here plus two more would give me the cover! Well, fourth down came around. The Bearcats went for it and appeared to score. The officials checked the replay, and despite both announcers stating that there was no way the call could be overturned, the ref ruled that the quarterback was short of the goal line. ESPN even had their own college football version of Mike Pereira, some guy named Dave Cutaia, who stated, “I saw no visible visual evidence that would make me overturn the call.”

OK, so the refs just screwed up, right? Well, on the following drive, Illinois clearly fumbled. The ball was recovered by Cincinnati. The official immediately announced that the runner was down by contact even though it was obvious that wasn’t the case.

So that’s how Illinois went up 21-0. The officials obviously had something to do with it. Oh, and making matters worse, there was a player in this contest named Silverberry Moon, or at least that’s what I heard.

Shadiest game of all time? I think so.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: It was certainly a surprise to see the Falcons post just 17 points on the Saints’ defense last week. Atlanta was projected to approach 30 points, yet they managed a sole touchdown after they went up 10-0 in the first quarter. So, what happened? Well, Roddy White was banged up and served as nothing but a decoy. The offensive line couldn’t block either. The center and both tackles struggled, especially Lamar Holmes. There’s no doubt the Falcons are now thinking twice about releasing Tyson Clabo.

The Falcons have to shore up their blocking in a hurry because they have to deal with a stout St. Louis front. I like Robert Quinn’s chances against Sam Baker, but Chris Long figures to flat-out abuse Holmes. Atlanta also has to worry about the improved Michael Brockers dominating the interior.

With all of this pressure, the Falcons need to keep the Rams honest by running the ball often. You’d think they’d do this by default, but Steven Jackson inexplicably had just 11 carries in the opener despite the fact that Atlanta never trailed by more than six points the entire way. Making Jackson a constant threat out of the backfield could give Ryan enough time to burn St. Louis’ pedestrian safeties, but the Rams figure to be pretty decent at stopping the rush.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Sam Bradford was pretty sharp in the opener, going 27-of-38 for 299 yards, two touchdowns and a fluky pick. He missed a couple of his throws, but was pretty solid overall. He was completely comfortable firing the ball to Tavon Austin and Jared Cook, two of his new weapons. Chris Givens wasn’t targeted much, but that’s because Patrick Peterson was all over him.

The Falcons don’t have anyone like Peterson to completely eliminate an element of St. Louis’ scoring attack. They started two rookies at cornerback last week because Asante Samuel was out. Samuel’s status for this game is currently unknown; he’s dealing with a thigh injury.

Atlanta will have to pressure Bradford, especially if Samuel is out again. However, this is easier said than done; the Falcons have only one player who can consistently get to the quarterback (Osi Umenyiora), and he’ll have to deal with Jake Long in this matchup.

RECAP: I think very highly of the Rams. They have a strong defense and a highly improved offense. The Falcons, meanwhile, are having some issues with their blocking and pass rush. These teams seem about even to me, hence my projected spread of Atlanta -4. Factor in the Falcons’ emotional loss to the Saints, and I like St. Louis a good deal. If this line rises to +7, I may add on a unit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Rams, but our value is destroyed by the line movement. I’m dropping my unit count to two. I’d still have it at three units if I could get +6. Damn sharps.

SUNDAY UPDATE: Rams +6 is available on Bovada. Again, two units if +5 or +5.5; three units if +6.

The Psychology. Edge: Rams.

The Falcons suffered an emotional loss against the Saints. They could be flat against St. Louis.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

It’s pretty predictable that the public is pounding the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 69% (36,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Jeff Fisher is 37-18 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Matt Ryan is 24-14 ATS at home.

Mike Smith is 17-7 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Falcons -6.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Falcons 23, Rams 20
Rams +6 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Falcons 31, Rams 24

Washington Redskins (0-1) at Green Bay Packers (0-1)
Line: Packers by 7.5. Total: 50.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 1): Packers -6.5.
Sunday, Sept. 15, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 2 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Packers.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Three years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

As for 2012, I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that.

What’s in store for this season? Well, I imagine Aaron Hernandez and Riley Cooper will be involved. I’m going to post new Spam Mails here with my responses to avoid clutter. My newest response has to do with a certain awesome person who will be back in our lives next summer.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: I’m sure some people thought Robert Griffin would suffer an injury in his first game back, but few expected what transpired Monday night. The Redskins were completely rusty. It wasn’t just Griffin; Alfred Morris lost a fumble and couldn’t handle a pitch in the end zone. The offensive line had several untimely penalties. The offense as a whole was a complete mess for the first two-and-a-half quarters.

The Redskins seemed to get their act together in the final frame. They even nearly came back to win. Will that carry over into this contest and the rest of the season? No one knows for sure, but I’d have to think so. Griffin, Morris and Pierre Garcon are just way too talented to keep struggling like they did during the first half of Monday night’s loss. Besides, I wasn’t exactly impressed by Green Bay’s defensive showing in the opener. The Packers have some glaring issues in the secondary, particularly at safety.

If Griffin has time in the pocket, he should be able to burn Green Bay deep. That will depend on Trent Williams’ ability to block Clay Matthews. Williams was solid in the opener, so there’s no reason to think that he won’t have his share of victories over Matthews. I do expect Matthews to get a sack or two though – and perhaps he’ll hit Griffin out of bounds as well.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Did you see how QB Dog Killer abused the pathetic Washington secondary Monday night? Now imagine what Aaron Rodgers will do. It’s pretty frightening, considering that he torched San Francisco’s excellent defense. Redskin safeties Bacarri Rambo and E.J. Biggers were so inept in the opener, so I don’t see how they stand a chance versus Rodgers and all of his talented weapons.

The Packers should also be able to run the ball on the Redskins, who surrendered 184 yards on the ground to LeSean McCoy. Eddie Lacy gained 41 yards on 14 carries against San Francisco, but he’ll have much more room in this contest.

Washington’s only hope of containing Green Bay is to pressure Rodgers. The Packers’ offensive line struggles are well-publicized. Fourth-round rookie David Bakhtiari and Don Barclay should have their hands full with Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan. Bakhtiari performed well in the preseason, but surrendered two sacks in the opener, so there’s hope for the Redskins in this regard. They’ll just need Orakpo and Kerrigan to play out of their minds.

RECAP: I love the idea of picking Rodgers after a loss, but all line value we had was destroyed by the Redskins’ pitiful Monday night performance. This spread is simply too high – I believe Washington’s offense will get its act together – so I’m leaning toward the underdog. I think this has “backdoor cover” written all over it.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still don’t have much of an opinion. I feel like of all the big underdogs this week (six or more), Washington is the most likely to put together a backdoor cover. I don’t want to rely on that though.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

A decent lean on the host.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 68% (37,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Aaron Rodgers is 43-25 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 13-4 ATS after a loss (just 6-3 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Opening Line: Packers -6.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Packers 30, Redskins 24
Redskins +7.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 50 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Packers 38, Redskins 20

Dallas Cowboys (1-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)
Line: Chiefs by 3. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 1): Chiefs -3.5.
Sunday, Sept. 15, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 2 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: Ragnarok, who has the Blog of Northern Aggression on this site, e-mailed me this video, entitled The Most Epic Twerk Fail of All Time. The chick is hot, but the end of the video was strangely satisfying, given how unbelievably dumb this twerking phenomenon is.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Chiefs were absolutely dominant defensively in the season opener. They limited Jacksonville to two points – the result of a blocked punt – sacked Blaine Gabbert six times and kept the opposition from crossing midfield until the fourth quarter. This was all against the Jaguars though, so I’m not sure if any of it should really count. Then again, Kansas City does have a ton of talent in its front seven.

The Chiefs’ defense is led by two dynamic pass-rushers in Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. The Cowboys have problems on their offensive line, so blocking them will be quite the challenge. They’ll also have to worry about second-year nose tackle Dontari Poe, who is in much better shape than he was in his rookie campaign. In addition to stuffing the run, Poe chipped in with 1.5 sacks and a batted pass in the opener. Dallas’ front will likely be overwhelmed by all of this. DeMarco Murray will struggle to find running lanes, while Tony Romo will be running for his life on occasion.

Having said that, the Cowboys will put points on the scoreboard because Romo is a skilled quarterback who has tons of talent to work with. It’ll be difficult for Dallas to sustain consistent drives, but the team will have its fair share of big plays. Considering that this won’t be a shootout, it might just be enough to win.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs’ offense, meanwhile, isn’t that tough to scheme for. Alex Smith rarely looks downfield, so he’ll be more than happy to dump the ball off to Jamaal Charles. Unlike the Jaguars, the Cowboys have skilled linebackers who should be able to bottle up Charles and keep him from breaking too many long gains.

If Charles is only slightly stymied, it’ll be difficult for Kansas City to sustain possessions itself. The Cowboys bring a great pass rush – George Selvie filled in admirably for Anthony Spencer at left end last week – so No. 1 overall pick Eric Fisher, who wasn’t too impressive in the opener, will have his hands full. Of course, Branden Albert has to worry about DeMarcus Ware, but that goes without saying.

The Chiefs must complete their first-down passes and avoid penalties if they want to outscore the Cowboys. Going into a 2nd-and-10 or a 1st-and-20 is disastrous for any offense that has Alex Smith as its quarterback.

RECAP: I was really hoping to get the Chiefs as a home underdog. I’d really like them in that scenario. Unfortunately, they’re favored by three, which is about right where I have it. My calculated spread is Kansas City -3.5 because I figure Dallas will be flat following an emotional victory over the Giants. I won’t bet against them though because it’ll be difficult for the offensively limited Chiefs to beat a competent opponent by more than a field goal.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps like the Chiefs. I’d lean that way if I had to bet this game.

The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.

The Cowboys just had an emotional victory over the Giants, so they may not be focused versus Kansas City.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

A decent lean on the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 66% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Andy Reid is 10-18 ATS vs. non-conference opponents as a favorite since 2002.

Opening Line: Chiefs -2.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Chiefs 23, Cowboys 19
Chiefs -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 17, Cowboys 16

Minnesota Vikings (0-1) at Chicago Bears (1-0)
Line: Bears by 6. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bears -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 1): Bears -5.5.
Sunday, Sept. 15, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 2 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Bears.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts is back for a second season! As with everything else though, I’m moving it to its own separate page. See what’s going on this week with this picture here:

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: So, Adrian Peterson breaks off a 78-yard touchdown to open the game, yet the Vikings fail to win (or cover as 4.5-point underdogs) all while their stud running back fails to eclipse the century mark? How does that happen?

Well, it’s easy when Christian Ponder is the quarterback. Ponder was his usual, awful self at Detroit, throwing three interceptions and losing a fumble. The Lions’ stop unit has some talented players, but Chicago’s is better overall. Thus, I can’t imagine Ponder rebounding at all, especially in an outdoor environment where he typically struggles. The last time he visited the Bears, he committed two turnovers and held a pathetic YPA of 3.7.

Peterson is Minnesota’s only hope of sustaining consistent offense, and even that’s a bit shaky. The Bears, of course, have a great defense, but the real issue is the absence of fullback Jerome Felton. One of the top lead-blockers in the NFL, Felton is currently serving a three-game suspension for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy. Peterson’s numbers have always been down when Felton has been out of the lineup, so we may not see the real AD until his fullback returns. Peterson could still break a long gain or two, but he probably won’t have a dominant performance like the many he enjoyed in 2012.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Felton isn’t the only key Viking who was out during the opener. Stud defensive tackle Kevin Williams missed the Detroit game with a knee injury. Fortunately for the Vikings, he’ll be back in the lineup to help bottle up Matt Forte and put pressure on Jay Cutler. Jared Allen and Brian Robison should also have their way with Chicago’s questionable offensive line.

Cutler does have a ton of weapons though – Alshon Jeffery has improved, while Martellus Bennett serves as a potent end-zone weapon – so he won’t be held off the scoreboard. The Vikings have some issues in their back seven – no idea why they’re not using Desmond Bishop – so Brandon Marshall and the other wideouts should help expose them.

Forte, of course, will once again serve as a potent weapon out of the backfield. He won’t be able to run for much yardage, but he’ll do his damage after hauling in receptions. He’ll also get the goal-line work. I was pleased to see Marc Trestman go with Forte instead of plodder Michael Bush in those situations last week.

RECAP: I’m a big fan of betting against the Vikings when they play outdoors – they’re 8-20 against the spread since 2008 – but this line is a bit too high for my liking. I actually set it at Bears -5.5. I’m still taking the host, but I’m not going to bet on it.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Vikings always lose at Chicago, but they’ll play better this week than they did at Detroit in an attempt to avoid an 0-2 start. This number is a touch too high.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings. Should I start Matt Ryan or Sam Bradford?
A decent lean on the host.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 70% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

History: Home Team has won 17 of the last 20 meetings (Bears won 6 of the last 7 meetings).

Vikings are 8-20 ATS outdoors since 2008.

Jay Cutler is 29-50 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Bears -5.5.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Bears 23, Vikings 15
Bears -6 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bears 31, Vikings 30

Week 2 NFL Picks – Late Games
Detroit�at�Arizona, New Orleans�at�Tampa Bay, Jacksonville�at�Oakland, Denver�at�NY Giants, San Francisco�at�Seattle, Pittsburgh�at�Cincinnati

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 2 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)