NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 17, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2014): 9-4-2 (+$255)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2014): 5-9-1 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2014): 10-4-1 (+$330)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2014): 4-11 (+$320)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2014): 9-4 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2014): 9-4 (-$90)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2014): 8-6 (+$90)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2014): 7-8 (+$100)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2014): 5-11 (-$1,390)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2014): 8-8 (-$130)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2014): 6-9-1 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2014): 11-5 (+$100)

NFL Picks (2014): 126-123-7 (-$2,555)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 28, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 17 NFL Picks – Late Games

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12) at Houston Texans (8-7)
Line: Texans by 10. Total: 40.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Texans -7.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Texans -8.
Sunday, Dec. 28, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Texans.

WEEK 16 RECAP: The good news is that after three brutal weeks, I had a winning Sunday. The bad news is that I relinquished about nine units after being up 10 heading into the Sunday night game. I’m pretty pissed about the Denver-Cincinnati game, as I didn’t see some of the numbers in my database, which would’ve limited that bet a bit (I still would’ve taken Denver though, but for only 1-2 units). Oh well. I went 11-5 overall with a net of plus-one unit, so I can’t complain too much.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans shockingly have a legitimate shot at reaching the playoffs. In addition to prevailing in this game, they need both the Chargers and Ravens to lose. San Diego going down could happen, as the team is an underdog at Kansas City, but Baltimore losing is the tough one, since the team will be taking on the Connor Shaw-led Browns (if Brian Hoyer is out). Of course, Houston needs to win this game, and that’s not something that’ll come easily.

The Texans, of course, have quarterback injury issues of their own. They’re down to their fourth-stringer in Case Keenum, who began last week’s contest pretty well – he completed his first four passes and moved the team into field-goal range – but then reality set in, and the Texans couldn’t move the chains without Joe Flacco giving them gift points with terrible turnovers. Keenum will have issues in this contest, as Jacksonville maintains a strong pass rush that happens to be tied for fourth in the NFL with 43 sacks. The Jaguars’ secondary has also been better ever since rookie corner Aaron Colvin started playing.

Houston can keep Keenum’s pocket clean by running the ball frequently with Arian Foster. The Jaguars have limited their previous two opponents to fewer than 100 yards on the ground, but that streak will probably be snapped, as Foster has eclipsed more than 100 total yards from scrimmage in every game since returning from injury.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars can slow down the Texans, but how are they going to score? More importantly, how will they be able to prevent J.J. Watt from wrecking Blake Bortles and forcing more turnovers and tons of negative plays?

Watt is going to dominate the line of scrimmage in this contest. The Jaguars have a terrible offensive front that has surrendered the most sacks in the NFL. They’ve given up 66 sacks – 11 more than the next team! Blake Bortles has struggled at times in his rookie campaign, but as you can see, it’s clearly not all his fault. Jacksonville simply can’t pass protect, so this obviously does not bode well for this matchup.

Like the Jaguars, Houston has been better against the run lately, restricting its previous four opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards. Unlike Foster, Toby Gerhart won’t be able to get much on the ground, making life even more difficult for Bortles.

RECAP: If I trusted the Jaguars, this would be a big play. I’m still taking them for two units though. This spread is just that outrageous. How in the world is Case Keenum favored by 10 points? That’s ridiculous. The Texans are going to have major problems getting into the end zone. This is going to be a low-scoring game, so the double digits look great to me, especially considering that we got 2.5 points of value compared to last week’s line.

I’m actually going to lock this in right now because I see the spread dropping to +9.5 (it already has in some books).

I’ll be posting NFL Picks all day Wednesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m already locked into the Jaguars +10 for two units. I’m glad I got it in because the spread has dropped to +9.5. Nothing has changed for me here.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps pounded the Jaguars on Sunday morning. The spread went all the way down to +7.5 until there was some buy-back.

The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.

The Texans are in a must-win situation battling a team with nothing to play for. Not good for Houston.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 54% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Texans have won 6 of the last 8 meetings.

Opening Line: Texans -9.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Texans 20, Jaguars 16
Jaguars +10 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Texans 23, Jaguars 17

Indianapolis Colts (10-5) at Tennessee Titans (2-13)
Line: Colts by 7.5. Total: 46.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Colts -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Colts -8.
Sunday, Dec. 28, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Unknown.

WEEK 17 BETTING TRENDS: I have discussed point value in terms of the Las Vegas Hilton advance spread. That dynamic was 28-17 against the spread since Week 2 entering last weekend. Here’s how it fared in Week 16:

Before Week 15	After Week 15	ATS Result
Colts PK	Colts +3.5	Non-cover
Bears +4.5	Bears +7	Cover
Raiders +4.5	Raiders +7	Cover

This dynamic went 2-1 this past week, with the only loser because the Colts, who didn’t show up to play the Cowboys. Value lines are now 31-22 ATS this season. Here are this week’s value lines (movements of two or more without serious injuries, and for Week 17, without motivational issues in terms of playoff implications):

Before Week 16	After Week 16
Bills +6.5	Bills +10
Rams +10	Rams +13
Jaguars +7.5	Jaguars +10
Browns +7	Browns +9
Cardinals +4	Cardinals +6

There are tons of value games this week. I don’t mind the Bills and Rams moving up like that because they’ll be battling the top two teams in the NFL, both of whom will be seeking to lock up homefield advantage. The other three movements can be taken advantage of, however. The Texans moved to -10 because Joe Flacco had one of the worst games of his career; the Ravens rose to -9 because they have to win; and the Cardinals went to +6 because of what everyone saw Sunday night.

TEAMS IN MUST-WIN SITUATIONS: This week, I’ll be looking at teams in must-win situations in the final week of the season. Conventional wisdom says these teams are triumphant because they absolutely have to be victorious if they want to reach the playoffs. However, that has not been the case whatsoever.

I looked back in my pick archives to determine which teams were in Week 17 must-win situations since 2007, so I could see how frequently they covered the spread. The results may surprise many (all records against the spread):

Teams in Week 17 Must-Win Situations Since 2007 (ATS):

Home favorites: 9-12
Road favorites: 3-7

Home underdogs: 3-1
Road underdogs: 4-7

Overall Record: 19-27

Excluding home underdogs, teams that have to win are 16-26 ATS (38.1%) in the past seven seasons. That’s pretty amazing, but it makes sense. If a team has to win in the final week of the season, chances are it’s not very good in the first place.

Here’s a list of teams in must-win situations this week:

Home Favorites:
Texans (vs. Jaguars)
Ravens (vs. Browns)
Falcons (vs. Chiefs)
Chiefs (vs. Chargers)

Road Favorites:
None

Home Underdogs:
None

Road Underdogs:
Panthers (at Falcons)
Chargers (at Chiefs)

As with any trend or situation, this should not be bet or faded blindly. If a hot team is legitimately coming on, don’t be afraid to wager on them. The same goes if a squad is playing an opponent resting all of its starters. This appears to be at its best when the team needing to win is battling an opponent out of playoff contention.

RESTING STARTERS: I’m not even going to bother with any game analysis because the Colts could be resting their starters in a meaningless game. Indianapolis is the No. 4 seed no matter what happens this week because the Pittsburgh-Cincinnati winner will have a better or equal record, and the Steelers own the tie-breaker.

Chuck Pagano said he’s not resting his players. That’s fine, and I fully expect Andrew Luck and company to play a drive or two, but all of them could be pulled at the end of the first quarter of by halftime. Or, they may play the entire game. If the latter occurs, Indianapolis should beat this terrible Tennessee team quite easily. If, however, Matt Hasselbeck is under center for most of this contest, who knows?

RECAP: There’s just no way of knowing what the Colts plan on doing. It’s Indianapolis or nothing for me, but being unaware of the team’s intentions makes this an impossible wager. Note this stat though, which StatsGuru sent over to me: Teams that have “earned” the first pick in the following April’s NFL draft are 0-10 in their final game of the season over the last 10 years. Those 10 teams, in those 10 games, have been outscored by a 265-115 combined margin.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Once again, this game is impossible to bet because we don’t know how long the Indianapolis starters will play.

SUNDAY NOTES: There is no professional money on the Titans, which is why this spread eclipsed the key number of seven. Chuck Pagano said the starters will play. Perhaps they’ll go the whole way, but they might also be off the field after two drives.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Meaningless game.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Who is betting Tennessee?

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 84% (11,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: Colts have won 19 of the last 23 meetings.

Andrew Luck is 12-1 ATS off a loss.

Andrew Luck is 13-3 ATS against divisional opponents.

Opening Line: Colts -6.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Colts 24, Titans 13
Colts -7.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Colts 27, Titans 10

Cleveland Browns (7-8) at Baltimore Ravens (9-6)
Line: Ravens by 14. Total: 40.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Ravens -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Ravens -7 (Hoyer).
Sunday, Dec. 28, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

VEGAS UPDATE: I hope casual bettors got their holiday shopping in prior to Week 16, because Vegas treated them like Ray McDonald. Of the nine highly bet teams, only three covered (Jaguars, Packers, Steelers). The house won with the Redskins, Bears, Jets, Texans, Raiders and Bengals. Vegas was like the Grinch who stole Christmas from some unfortunate gamblers.

Once again, follow @walterfootball for updates.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: There was a spread on this game (Ravens -9.5/-10) until it was announced that Brian Hoyer had a shoulder issue. The team tried to sign Rex Grossman, but had to settle for Tyler Thigpen as an emergency backup. Meanwhile, Connor Shaw has gotten the first-team reps thus far this week. Blegh.

Shaw looked good in the preseason, but as an undrafted free agent, going up against a defense featuring Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil and the like will be a daunting task. Baltimore has some major issues in its secondary that Hoyer would be able to expose, but I’m not so sure about Shaw.

Unfortunately for Shaw, the Ravens stop the run well; they’re second in the NFL in terms of YPC (3.51). It would be nice if Isaiah Crowell could run for some decent yardage and set up short-yardage opportunities for Shaw, but it doesn’t look like that’ll happen.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens will have issues moving the chains as well. They’re just so banged up. Joe Flacco and Justin Forsett are both nursing injuries that have hindered their play the past two weeks. The offensive line, meanwhile, has similar problems. Right tackle Ricky Wagner is out for the year, while left tackle Eugene Monroe is playing on one leg.

The Ravens couldn’t pass protect against the Texans, which forced some errant passes from the injured Flacco. The Browns have about the same seasonal sack total as Houston, so they should be able to do the same thing. Joe Haden will erase one of the Smiths, limiting Flacco’s options.

Forsett, meanwhile, could once again struggle for yardage because of his ankle injury. The Browns can be exposed against the run – they’ve surrendered 387 combined rushing yards the past two weeks – but I don’t see Forsett taking advantage of that. He’s been awful lately, averaging just 2.6 yards per carry over the past two weeks.

RECAP: I’ll have a pick posted when the spread is released again. I like the Browns no matter what, as this number will be too high because the public believes Baltimore will win because it needs to. However, I don’t know if I can wager heavily on Shaw. I might be on the Browns for 3-4 units if Hoyer gets the nod. Check back later, or follow @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: When it was announced that Connor Shaw would play, the spread jumped up to +13. Josh Gordon’s suspension pushed it to +13.5. I’m hoping it’ll continue to rise because I like the Browns. The Ravens, who have been playing like crap, will be missing both of their starting tackles. They may not even score 14 points with Joe Flacco and Justin Forsett banged up. Meanwhile, I like that Gordon is out because Shaw won’t have to force the ball to him.

SUNDAY NOTES: The Browns are up to +14, which is absurd. Cleveland is the only side in this game. Laying 14 with Baltimore is not a good idea.

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.

The Ravens are in a must-win battling a team with nothing to play for. That’s not good for Baltimore.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

The money is on the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 68% (9,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Ravens have won 12 of the last 13 meetings (Road Team has covered 7 of the last 9 non-pushes).

John Harbaugh is 9-2 ATS following a loss of 10+.

Ravens are 4-12 ATS as favorites of 7.5 or more since 2010.

Opening Line: Ravens -9.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Ravens 24, Browns 21
Browns +14 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 40 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Ravens 20, Browns 10

Buffalo Bills (8-7) at New England Patriots (12-3)
Line: Patriots by 5. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Patriots -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -10.
Sunday, Dec. 28, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

HATE MAIL: Another week, another stack of hate mails. These are from the comment boards below:

detroit playing for the division and they may mail it in? huh? Total nonsense. No wonder fading you is profitable.

What a sound performance by the Lions!

I think you should take walter the Ass’s place he has to be the worst I have ever seen

I’ll second that. Walter the Ass sucks!!!

walt are you kidding me! murray did nothing! start eating better your brain is going. start with holding te linebackers in so passing was open. randle in doesn’t happen.and he ran hard. come on I think your a disgruntle phili fan. over rated cowboys right. but you’ll move up right?

Uhh… what did Murray do? 58 yards on 22 carries? No catches? Please tell me. I didn’t realize that a 2.6 YPC was an otherworldly performance. All praise the great running back who averaged 2.6 yards per carry!

“but I still like the Colts for a couple of units, as they’re the better team with the clutch quarterback” Nevermind the fact that the first part of the above quote is silly…the Colts have the best overall player between the two teams, but the Cowboys have a far WIDER set of talent. The Colts would be nothing without Luck; Dallas could at least somewhat compete without Romo. But what’s with the second part? THE clutch quarterback? As in “Dallas doesn’t have a clutch quarterback”. News flash: the myth that Tony Romo is anything BUT clutch died quite some time ago, and only trolls are keeping that ball rolling. Why don’t you man up and be one of the first Dallas haters to admit that you were an ostrich burying his head in the sands regarding how good Romo is? He’s not Luck and he’s not elite, but he’s the next best thing, more than good enough, and CLUTCH. The facts are inarguable, unless you’re the kind of person who hates evidence.

You’re right. No idea why I’ve ignored Romo’s long history of playoff success. All of those playoff games he won… why am I ignoring this stuff!?!?

You have to be the biggest dumbass in the history of predicting football games. Every damn week you lose big play games….every damn week!! Nice call on Arizona….real friggin close dumbass!

Thanks bro. If it wasn’t for that one drop, the Cards would’ve won outright.

This is an actual e-mail I received:

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Jets put the clamps on the Patriots’ scoring attack by putting as much pressure as possible on Tom Brady and limiting what Rob Gronkowski did after the catch. Can the Bills do the same thing? Sure – but only if they have Marcell Dareus in the lineup.

Dareus exited Sunday’s game with a knee injury, and that pretty much ended Buffalo’s chances of winning. With Dareus missing, the Raiders were able to run the ball extremely well with Latavius Murray against a unit that is typically strong against ground attacks. Dareus’ status for Week 17 is uncertain, as Doug Marrone said that his Pro Bowl defensive tackle’s condition will be evaluated later in the week. If Dareus is missing again – the Bills could keep him sidelined in a meaningless game – the Patriots will be able to run the ball effectively with LeGarrette Blount, or whomever Bill Belichick opts to start in the backfield this time.

Speaking of Belichick, the hooded one often plays Brady in these sorts of Week 17 contests, so I expect the “Golden Boy” to be on the field for at least half of this contest. Brady went 27-of-37 for 361 yards and four touchdowns the last time he faced the Bills.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: While Brady is expected to play, Kyle Orton will be on the field as well. That’s a bit confusing, as there was some speculation that E.J. Manuel could start, just to see if he has improved at all during the two months in which he’s been sidelined. Marrone, however, is opting to go with Orton because he gives the Bills the “best chance to win.” Way to go Marrone! Go prevail in a meaningless game!

Orton is coming off a horrific showing against the Raiders, and I expect it to trickle into this game. The Patriots have an elite secondary that put the clamps on Sammy Watkins in the prior matchup. With Watkins and Robert Woods smothered, Orton won’t have much else to turn to. He’ll spend the entire afternoon throwing inaccurate passes, some of which will go to the other team.

The Bills won’t be able to take any pressure off Orton with their running attack because they don’t really have one. Fred Jackson isn’t nearly the player he once was, while C.J. Spiller provided nothing last week. The Patriots are ninth against the run, anyway (3.95 YPC).

RECAP: I love the Patriots this week. This spread was reduced to -3 following Denver’s loss on Monday night because New England locked up the No. 1 seed. However, the sharps jumped all over the Patriots, knowing very well that Belichick loves to win Week 17 games to give his team momentum in the playoffs.

The Bills, meanwhile, have nothing to play for. Their postseason dreams have just been crushed, so there’s a very good chance they’ll have a letdown. Even if they don’t, I like New England’s talent to win out and cover this incredibly small spread. The Patriots should be favored by 10, but the public just doesn’t recognize that Belichick will have his troops motivated to win this contest.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It’s been speculated that Bill Belichick will be using Brady and the other starters for a half. He has done that before. Belichick is an auto-bet in Week 17. Go five units.

SUNDAY NOTES: Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman are out. Tom Brady will play, but may only go a half. Still, the Patriots are the right side against a deflated Buffalo team missing both Marcell Dareus and Stephon Gilmore.

The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.

The Bills just had their playoff dreams crushed, so they could have trouble getting up for this game.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Equal action earlier in the week, but people are betting the Patriots now.

Percentage of money on New England: 71% (9,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 21 of the last 22 meetings.

True home teams are 21-10 ATS in the last 31 Bills games.

Patriots are 44-31 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Patriots are 29-14 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.

Patriots are 11-2 ATS in Week 17 since 2001.

Tom Brady is 172-57 as a starter (131-93 ATS).

Tom Brady is 21-30 ATS as a home favorite of -9 or more (11-23 ATS since November 2007).

Opening Line: Patriots -10.

Opening Total: .

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Bills 17
Patriots -5 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
Over 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bills 17, Patriots 9

New York Jets (3-12) at Miami Dolphins (8-7)
Line: Dolphins by 6.5. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Dolphins -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Dolphins -6.
Sunday, Dec. 28, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It’s free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. It’s not too late to enter, so sign up soon!

Also, you can make your own NFL Power Rankings here.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Rex Ryan had a tremendous game plan for Tom Brady. With Muhammad Wilkerson back, the Jets were able to put tons of pressure on the Golden Boy, forcing quick throws to Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola. New York has an awful secondary, but the team was able to smother Gronkowski, making sure he gained nothing after the catch.

The Dolphins have a somewhat similar offensive attack, as Ryan Tannehill often prefers to toss intermediate passes to Jarvis Landry and Charles Clay. However, he took many more shots downfield against the Vikings, so perhaps that sort of confidence can carry over into this contest. Tannehill will be able to find Mike Wallace downfield amid New York’s putrid secondary; the two finally showed some good chemistry last week, for a change.

What Miami won’t be able to do is run the ball effectively; the Jets have the third-best rush defense in the NFL in terms of YPC, and they’ve permitted fewer than 80 yards on the ground to their previous four opponents.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Geno Smith had a solid performance overall last week. He made some mistakes in the fourth quarter to relinquish the lead, but he did a good job of moving the chains throughout the afternoon. However, we’ve seen this before. Smith had one of his best outings against the Patriots in the first meeting against them, and in the very next week, he threw three interceptions in the first half of the opening quarter versus Buffalo, getting benched in the process.

Coming off a similar-type emotional loss, Smith could struggle again – especially given that he won’t have All-Pro center Nick Mangold snapping the ball to him. The Dolphins have a terrific pass rush that just sacked Teddy Bridgewater four times. New York has allowed more sacks than just five teams this year, and its pass protection will be even worse with Mangold out of the lineup.

The Jets were able to keep things close against the Dolphins in their previous matchup, a Monday nighter that went down to the wire, with a strong rushing attack. However, the Dolphins didn’t seem very prepared for that contest, apparently taking things easy until the second half. Miami shut down the run after halftime and could do the same thing to the Jets throughout this entire contest. The Dolphins aren’t in position to have any sort of letdown this time, and I don’t expect New York to run as well with Mangold missing.

RECAP: Fading coaches who will be fired is often lucrative in Week 17. This might be an exception, however, as the Jet players absolutely love Rex Ryan. Still, it’s going to be tough for them to get up for Miami coming off that absolutely gut-wrenching loss to the Patriots in what was New York’s “Super Bowl.”

I think Miami is the right side, but I’m not overly enthusiastic about laying this many points with them. The Dolphins are at their best as underdogs; not near-touchdown favorites.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I loved hearing that Rex Ryan has been packing up the items in his office. Good lord, the Jets are stupid for firing him. With Ryan having one foot out the door, there’s no way he’s been game planning for this enthusiastic Miami team. I’m going to place a unit on the Dolphins.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps have moved the Dolphins up to -6.5 or -7, depending on where you’re looking. It’s hard to imagine the Jets playing well after losing their “Super Bowl.”

The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.

The Jets just lost their Super Bowl, and the players may have trouble getting motivated, given that they know their head coach won’t be around next year.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

A good lean on the Dolphins.

Percentage of money on Miami: 68% (6,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

History: Road Team has won 11 of the last 14 meetings.

Dolphins are 5-16 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more since 2008.

Dolphins are 9-28 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Underdog is 58-29 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 87 games.

Opening Line: Dolphins -6.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Dolphins 23, Jets 13
Dolphins -6.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jets 37, Dolphins 24

Chicago Bears (5-10) at Minnesota Vikings (6-9)
Line: Vikings by 7. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Vikings -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Vikings -7.
Sunday, Dec. 28, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Vikings.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I’ve been asked to compile a Deion Sanders Anthology, just as I once did for Emmitt Smith. Deion can be entertaining, but he sometimes says the dumbest things on NFL GameDay Final. These are two examples:

“I know Drew Stanton is proponent to throw interceptions.”

“Brian Hoyer and Josh Gordon don’t have any chemistry betwince one another.”

I think Deion was betwincing too much during grammar class and didn’t learn much, as a result.

2. Speaking of analysts who have trouble saying things, I loved this interaction between Tom Jackson and Keyshawn Johnson recently:

Tom Jackson: The Steelers are led by the four Bs: Ben Roethlisberger. Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant.

Keyshawn Johnson (looking confused): Where the four Bs at, Tom?

Derp dee derp.

3. I forget who interviewed him – I think it was Rick Reilly – but Brandon Jacobs had criticized fantasy football players after receiving death threats from people on Twitter after he had a bad game a couple of years ago. Someone actually threatened his life if he didn’t play against the Vikings.

First of all, what crappy fantasy player would be that distraught over Jacobs not playing? Peyton Manning? Sure. Calvin Johnson? Absolutely. But Brandon Jacobs? You suck at fantasy. bro. Second, there’s no need to take fantasy that seriously. Unless you’re in a league in which the last-place team has to sacrifice a family member by burning them at the stake, there’s no reason why anyone should be so worked up over fantasy.

Having said that, I hate it when former players like Trent Dilfer bash fantasy football, complaining that all people care about is fantasy. Dilfer and others are being stupid if they don’t realize that the NFL is so popular because of fantasy. If it weren’t for fantasy, Dilfer and his colleagues wouldn’t be paid as much by ESPN to talk about the NFL, since fewer people would care. Way to insult the very people who are paying your salary, Trent!

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Poor Marc Trestman. He wanted to show the rest of the league that he still knows what he’s doing; if he could get the most out of Jimmy Clausen, people would know that it was Jay Cutler’s fault instead of his own. Clausen looked good in his one start, and he probably would’ve led the Bears to victory if his teammates hadn’t disappointed him with seven drops. Unfortunately, thanks to a cheap hit by a Detroit player, Clausen is out, and Cutler is back in.

Clausen was the better option for the Bears, sadly. Clausen doesn’t have Cutler’s talent, but he actually has heart. He cared about whether he won or lost. The heartless Cutler doesn’t care. He’s going to make #yolo throws, toss interceptions and fumble the ball, because that’s what he does. Geico might as well have him in one of those “it’s what you do” commercials.

Even if Cutler tried, he’d have a tough time. The Vikings put a great amount of pressure on the quarterback, as only six other teams have more sacks. This will be a big issue for the Bears because they haven’t been able to pass protect. They’re just two weeks removed from surrendering seven sacks to the Saints, of all defenses.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: While Cutler couldn’t give a damn, Teddy Bridgewater has shown a ton of heart in his rookie campaign. Bridgewater had some shaky starts early on, as he was forced to check down often because of heavy pressure, but he’s been hot lately. He has thrown for 259 or more yards in his previous three starts, and he has completed 70 percent or more of his passes in his past four games.

Bridgewater, who has gone a combined 50-of-67 in the previous two weeks, will continue his hot pace against the inept Bears, who can’t cover anyone. The rookie signal-caller has formed a nice rapport with Greg Jennings, and he’s been able to throw to the athletic Charles Johnson, who has emerged. He’ll pick apart a Chicago stop unit ranked dead last in terms of YPA (8.20).

The Vikings will also have success on the ground. The Bears used to defend the run somewhat well, but they’ve apparently waved the white flag, as they’ve progressively gotten worse versus rushing attacks in recent weeks. They’ve allowed 4.99 YPC to their previous four opponents, so Matt Asiata will have a big game.

RECAP: This is one of my top picks this week. I love the Vikings.

Cutler is an auto-fade. Excluding Monday night games, he’s 35-65 against the spread in his career. He sucks because he just doesn’t care, and I doubt he’ll be up for this Week 17 game. The other Bears might not be either. Marc Trestman won’t be back next year, which makes Minnesota a great bet because teams that fire their coaches have a very dubious track record of covering in the final game of the season.

The Vikings, meanwhile, are just a much better team. They’re playing with enthusiasm for Mike Zimmer, and they’ve covered all but one game dating back to Week 7. While Minnesota is playing for the future, Chicago has a decaying roster. Most of the players won’t be back next year, so where’s the motivation?

This has blowout written all over it. I just don’t see the Bears being competitive in this spot.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nothing has changed for me. I still love the Vikings to rip apart the Bears, who won’t try very hard.

SUNDAY NOTES: As with the Dolphins game, the pros have bet up the Vikings to -7. I still like them a lot at this number.

The Psychology. Edge: Vikings.

With Marc Trestman on the way out, the Bears could have issues getting up for this game.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 53% (7,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Home Team has won 20 of the last 23 meetings (Bears won 8 of the last 10 meetings).

Bears are 13-32 ATS in December road games the previous 45 instances.

Jay Cutler is 35-65 ATS, excluding MNF games.

Opening Line: Vikings -7.

Opening Total: .

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Vikings 24, Bears 10
Vikings -7 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Under 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Vikings 13, Bears 9

Check out Walter Football's LockerDome poll on LockerDome

San Diego Chargers (9-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-7)
Line: Chiefs by 1. Total: 42.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Chiefs -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -1.5.
Sunday, Dec. 28, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

Some of you might be leaving this site until September since the regular season will be over in a few days. If so, here’s what you’ll be missing over the next four-and-a-half months:

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Jerks of the Week

The Emmitt Smith, April Fools and Celebrity 2015 NFL Mock Drafts (i.e. jokes about fat coaches, drunk quarterbacks and clueless announcers – the usual)

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: It’s a miracle the Chargers control their own destiny. They were down by three touchdowns to the 49ers, yet they were able to mount a late comeback, thanks to several fourth-and-long conversions. Philip Rivers, battling through multiple injuries, was heroic in the fourth quarter and overtime, as he beat the 49ers at the very end despite missing his top receiver.

Keenan Allen will be out again, so Rivers will need to do more miracle work. His offensive line has been atrocious, and you have to wonder how the front will block Tamba Hali, Justin Houston and Dontari Poe. The Chiefs have some weaknesses in their secondary with Eric Berry out of the lineup, but Rivers may not have time in the pocket to expose them.

The Chargers will have to establish a sound rushing attack with Branden Oliver, who had a quality outing at San Francisco. The Chiefs have the NFL’s worst run defense, so Oliver will give Rivers some opportunities to operate in short-yardage situations, which will perhaps nullify his protection issues.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It’s been 15 games without a touchdown pass to a receiver, so can the Chiefs make it a full 16? If so, it would be a remarkable, albeit dubious, feat. Alex Smith is just so limited that it’s not really surprising that it hasn’t happened yet, but this game could signal the end of the streak. Two reasons: The Chargers have allowed a touchdown to a receiver in five consecutive games, as well as seven of their previous eight.

The second reason is the emergence of Albert Wilson. The undrafted rookie wideout from Georgia State has proven to be a reliable target for Smith over the past couple of weeks, so he could threaten a San Diego secondary missing some players with injuries. I’m sure the Chargers will put Brandon Flowers on Dwayne Bowe, but Wilson might just be the bigger threat.

Speaking of threats, I don’t think Andy Reid realizes he has a potent one in his backfield. It’s amazing that over the past four weeks, Jamaal Charles’ touch count has been: 14, 13, 12, 14. That’s absolutely ridiculous, and quite frankly, it’s embarrassing that Reid continues to make the same mistakes he was guilty of in Philadelphia. He refused to give the ball enough to Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy in crucial games, and now he’s doing the same thing with Charles.

RECAP: I’d like a good deal the Chargers if Philip Rivers were completely healthy. Unfortunately, that’s not the case. Rivers hasn’t been very effective recently, outside of that fourth-quarter comeback. He could win this game, as the Chiefs have struggled for the most part lately, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Kansas City prevailed.

I’m torn on this game, but I’m leaning toward San Diego. I like Rivers over Smith, but I’m not excited to back such a publicly bet underdog.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I said I was torn on this game back on Wednesday. I have since changed my mind. Chase Daniel is starting, so I like the Chiefs now. I’m a big fan of backing good teams playing reserve quarterbacks, and I don’t really think there’s a difference between Daniel and Alex Smith. Both essentially just toss checkdowns. Despite the similarity between these signal-callers, the public is all over San Diego. Let’s fade them.

SUNDAY NOTES: The amount of sharp action on this game is insane. With the public pounding the Chargers, the Chiefs have gone from pick to -3. There’s a very high chance this game lands on three, but I can’t increase my unit total with this line skyrocketing.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

The Chargers are a public dog.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 82% (28,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Home Team has won 22 of the last 33 meetings (Chargers have won 11 of the last 14).

Philip Rivers is 30-20 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (13-7 ATS as an underdog).

Opening Line: Chiefs -2.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Chiefs 20, Chargers 17
Chiefs -3 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
CHiefs 19, Chargers 7

Philadelphia Eagles (9-6) at New York Giants (6-9)
Line: Pick. Total: 52.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Eagles -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Giants -1.
Sunday, Dec. 28, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Giants.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Four years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for this past season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses.

Check out the new Spam Mails page here with my most recent responses.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I can’t believe Odell Beckham was snubbed in the Pro Bowl voting. How is that even possible? Beckham might even be the best receiver in the NFL right now. I’m not exaggerating. NO ONE has been able to stop him. He has shredded every secondary he has faced, including Seattle’s, and he has scored 11 touchdowns despite the fact that he didn’t enter the starting lineup until Week 7.

The Eagles don’t have a prayer of stopping him, or any of Eli Manning’s other weapons, for that matter. Philadelphia’s secondary is a disgrace. Bradley Fletcher, Cary Williams and Nate Allen are all terrible, as opposing offenses have exposed them all season, especially lately.

Manning will have an easy time with the Eagles’ secondary, and he’ll hit big plays, though the Giants won’t be able to maintain consistent drives, given how good Philadelphia’s run defense is. The Eagles are sixth against the rush in terms of YPC (3.62), and it’s not like Andre Williams is all that talented. He just had a big game against the Rams, but St. Louis has struggled against ground attacks recently.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Chip Kelly did a great job of fooling the media and Philly fans about his offense all year. The Eagles put up a lot of points because of special-teams plays and the sheer amount of volume of their offense, when, in fact, all the Eagles effectively did was dink and dunk. Mark Sanchez was able to look good against some terrible defenses, but he has been exposed in recent weeks as a turnover-prone signal-caller.

The Eagles will move the chains somewhat effectively in this contest, but because they rely on so many plays to score, it’ll give Sanchez more opportunities to throw interceptions. I don’t trust Sanchez behind a shaky offensive line that has permitted 10 sacks in the previous three weeks. The Giants, meanwhile, have gotten immense pressure on the quarterback, notching a ridiculous 24 sacks in the past four games, thanks to Jason Pierre-Paul and Johnathan Hankins being extremely dominant.

In order to avoid turnovers, Philadelphia will have to put the ball into LeSean McCoy’s hands as much as possible. That could be problematic, however, given that the Giants have made strides in run defense. They’re 31st in terms of YPC (4.78), but that figure is jut 3.65 over the past four weeks.

RECAP: I would’ve liked the Giants if the Eagles were still favored. Philadelphia was laying three a week ago, which was absolutely ridiculous. Now, the line is about where it should be, so we’re getting no value with the Giants. I think New York might be the right side because Philadelphia just had its playoff dreams crushed, but I’m not going to bet this game. It seems way too 50-50 to me.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m still leaning toward the Giants, but as I wrote earlier, all of the line value is gone.

SUNDAY NOTES: Professional money on the Eagles dropped this game to pick/Giants -1. I don’t really see much of an edge in this game.

The Psychology. Edge: Giants.

The Eagles just had their playoff dreams crushed, so how will they get up for a team looking to avenge an embarrassing loss on national TV?

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 55% (10,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Road Team has won 10 of the last 15 meetings.

History: Eagles have won 10 the last 13 meetings.

Opening Line: Giants -2.5.

Opening Total: 52.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Giants 27, Eagles 23
Giants PK (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 52.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Eagles 34, Giants 26

Dallas Cowboys (11-4) at Washington Redskins (4-11)
Line: Cowboys by 4. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Cowboys -8.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cowboys -5.
Sunday, Dec. 28, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

Video of the Week: I’m sure many of you have seen this, but if not, take a look at the NFL: Bad Lip Reading. It’s pretty hilarious (thanks, TDAP):

DALLAS OFFENSE: There’s some chatter that the Cowboys could consider sitting their starters, but I don’t see it. Getting homefield advantage is still a possibility, albeit a slim one because they’d need the Seahawks to lose to the Rams. Anything can happen though; if Russell Wilson gets hurt in the first quarter, won’t Dallas regret sitting Tony Romo and Dez Bryant?

Assuming Romo plays, he should be able to torch Washington’s secondary. The Redskins have an atrocious defensive backfield that blows tons of coverages. I have no idea how they’re going to cover Bryant. Washington also struggles against tight ends, so Jason Witten coud have another huge performance.

The Cowboys won’t have any issues moving the chains aerially, which is a good thing because DeMarco Murray once again won’t be able to get anything on the ground. Murray shouldn’t have been on the field when the Cowboys went up early; he wasn’t very effective, failing to generate three yards per carry, and he appeared to be favoring his hand after almost every play. Nevertheless, Dallas kept him out there, so there’s a good chance he’ll see extensive action in this contest. The Redskins have a top-10 run defense, though that aspect of its stop unit has been worse with Jason Hatcher battling a knee injury. Still, even with Hatcher out, Murray could have issues, given that he’s not 100 percent and should be resting right now, despite Dr. Jerry Jones clearing him.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Robert Griffin played well for the second week in a row on Saturday, going 16-of-23 for 220 yards and a pick over the Eagles. He was battling a sorry Philadelphia secondary that didn’t have a prayer of covering DeSean Jackson, but while Dallas is better on this side of the ball, it’s not like the Cowboys have this overly dominant stop unit.

The one thing that could hurt Griffin, however, is the absence of left tackle Trent Williams, who isn’t expected to play. The Redskins already had a poor offensive front, so missing Williams could be huge, especially given that the Cowboys, who normally struggle to get to the quarterback, have recorded six sacks in their previous two contests. Griffin could always scramble for yardage, though he was reluctant to run last week.

Griffin’s presence in the backfield opens things up for Alfred Morris, though the Cowboys have made strides in terms of run defense since their disastrous performance on Thanksgiving. Dallas limited the Eagles to 75 yards on 21 carries, and then followed that up by surrendering just ONE rushing yard to the Colts. Granted, Indianapolis didn’t try very hard, but containing Morris shouldn’t be too difficult with Williams out of the lineup.

RECAP: The Cowboys beat the overrated Eagles and crushed the lethargic Colts, and now they’re the best team evvarrr. With NFL analysts proclaiming that this is THE team that can challenge the Seahawks, it’s a great time to fade the Cowboys, who never handle success well. This number is inflated because of Dallas’ recent success, so there’s plenty of value with the Redskins, who have been competitive with Griffin back under center.

Having said that, I can only take the Redskins for two units because I don’t fully trust them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has dropped to +4, and I think it’ll keep moving down, so I’ll lock in the Redskins for two units. The sharps are all over Washington.

SUNDAY NOTES: I made a great decision to lock in the Jaguars at +10. However, I was stupid to lock the Redskins at +4. The Cowboys have gone up to -6. I’d consider adding a third unit, but I don’t trust Washington very much.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

No surprise where the action is going.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 68% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

History: Underdog has covered 9 of the previous 13 meetings.

The underdog is 52-24 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Cowboys are 5-18 ATS when favored after a win since 2010.

Tony Romo is 12-23 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30.

Opening Line: Cowboys -6.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Cowboys 23, Redskins 20
Redskins +4 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cowboys 44, Redskins 17

New Orleans Saints (6-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-13)
Line: Saints by 5. Total: 46.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Saints -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -1.
Sunday, Dec. 28, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Saints.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

Remember when Tom Brady used to be the most clutch quarterback in the NFL? He had that epic drive against the Rams in the Super Bowl. He then engineered numerous other fourth-quarter comebacks, including one to defeat the Panthers two years later to claim his second Lombardi trophy. After he earned his third, there was a wide-spread belief that he would pass both Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw and eventually earn five or more total rings.

Well, Brady’s been stuck on three. He’s no longer clutch; in fact, he often melts down in the fourth quarters of big matchups. He seems to really care about some games – especially those involving Tim Tebow – but then he’s so lackadaisical in others.

So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona. Including this one…

Check out the newest chapter of the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: One non-quarterback shouldn’t make much of a difference, but that’s not the case with Gerald McCoy. Arguably the top interior lineman in the NFL, he’s Tampa’s entire defense. The Buccaneers have gotten blown out in the two games he has missed this season, and this could easily be the third.

McCoy was fantastic in the first matchup with the Saints. He constantly pushed the pocket and forced Drew Brees to throw while under pressure. Brees, as a consequence, struggled for most of the afternoon. That won’t happen with McCoy out. With Tampa’s sole consistent pass-rusher missing from the lineup, Brees will have all day to find his targets downfield. This includes Jimmy Graham, who may not actually disappoint this time, given that Greg Olsen just tore up Tampa’s defense two weeks ago.

Mark Ingram figures to complement Brees pretty well. The Saints couldn’t run effectively last week, but things will be different this Sunday; the Buccaneers are 12th against the rush (3.96 YPC), but looked very susceptible to it without McCoy.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Buccaneer fans, remember this moment. This is going to be the last time in a long while that you enter a game without a franchise quarterback. Tampa will lock up the No. 1 pick with a loss and will take either Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston with it; I have them picking the former in my 2015 NFL Mock Draft.

Josh McCown will make his final start against a New Orleans team that he should have some success against. The Saints’ defensive struggles are well-documented by now. They are 27th in terms of YPA, and if you exclude their victory over the hapless Bears, they’ve accumulated just three sacks in their previous five games. New Orleans may get some pressure on McCown, who is protected very poorly, but the Buccaneers could still hit some passing plays downfield, as Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans will be too much for the Saints to handle.

New Orleans, however, won’t have to worry about any sort of running game, at least. The Buccaneers haven’t been able to run on anyone, as Doug Martin and Charlie Sims have been huge disappointments.

RECAP: I have no interest in betting this game. The Saints are in a terrible spot, as their playoff dreams were just crushed. However, the Buccaneers, who are missing McCoy, are incompetent at home. I’m leaning toward New Orleans, but I could easily see the Saints winning an ugly game by just a field goal.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Blegh, what a stupid game. Pass.

SUNDAY NOTES: The public has bet up the Saints, and with no sharp support on the Buccaneers, this spread has steamed up to -5/-5.5/-6 depending on where you look.

The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Saints just lost their playoff hopes, so how will they get up for the Bucs?

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Who’s going to bet on Tampa?

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 75% (8,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Underdog has covered 9 of the previous 13 meetings.

Drew Brees is 31-19 ATS after a loss with the Saints (9-4 ATS as an underdog).

Sean Payton is 14-9 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Buccaneers are 12-32 ATS at home in the previous 45 instances.

Buccaneers are 6-17 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Saints -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Saints 24, Buccaneers 17
Saints -5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 23, Buccaneers 20

Week 17 NFL Picks – Late Games
Carolina�at�Atlanta, Detroit�at�Green Bay, Oakland�at�Denver, Arizona�at�San Francisco, St. Louis�at�Seattle, Cincinnati�at�Pittsburgh

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 17 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)