New England Patriots (14-3) at Denver Broncos (14-3)
Line: Patriots by 3.5. Total: 42.5.
Sunday, Jan. 25, 3:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Patriots. 
Week 20 Analysis: We had some great weeks to close out the regular season, but the two playoff rebounds were a disaster in terms of picking sides. Luckily, we made out extremely well with our live prop bets. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:
Bills, 8 units (loss): This game was absolute bulls**t, as the Bills outgained the mediocre Broncos by 100 yards and about 0.6 more yards per play. The main bulls**t, of course, occurred on the Brandin Cooks interception call when Cooks was obviously down by contact. There was also a bogus pass interference call on the final drive of the game, though Joey Bosa committed a personal foul penalty anyway. I think the Bills win/cover this game at least seven out of 10 times.
49ers, 8 units (loss): I didn’t even like the 49ers, but I thought we’d get a great opportunity to middle them with the Seahawks -3/-3.5 if Sam Darnold was ruled out. Adam Schefter’s tweet made it seem like Darnold wasn’t going to play, so this completely backfired on us.
Patriots, 3 units (win): We won a playoff side, yay!
Rams, 3 units (loss): Talk about bulls**t, we were set to cover with the Rams at -3.5, but were beaten on a last-play Hail Mary by Caleb Williams. We’ve had the worst luck in the playoffs.
VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 30-53-1 heading into Week 20.
Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:
Bills +1.5
49ers +7
The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1. As for Week 8, the public was an even 3-3. It also went 3-3 in Week 9 and then 2-2 in Week 10. In Week 11, the public continued to lose, going 2-3-1. The public continued to immolate itself in Week 12, going 1-4 because of two back-door touchdowns, as well as Week 13, with a 1-2 record. Things were once again awful in Week 14, with the public going 2-5. In Week 15, the public was 2-3.
It took 16 weeks, but the public finally won, going 3-2 in Week 16. Hooray! But then they went 1-3 in Week 17 and 1-2 in Week 18. Booo!
Public teams went 2-0 in the wild card round, but then went 0-2 in the divisional round.
Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:
Patriots -5.5
The public is back to going with road favorites.
HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s an e-mail I got from someone recognizing my 0-6 weekend:
I love how this deranged lunatic had to throw politics in there, and yet he failed to correctly identify my politics. This is the sort of person who eats “peanut butter” found in their rear end.
Speaking of deranged lunatics, look at this exchange I had with someone calling himself the Big Lasagne:
Amazingly, we found someone dumber than the e-mailer. What in seven hells was he even saying in his first two replies to me?
Here’s a shorter exchange:
DENVER OFFENSE: We begin with the big news concerning this game, and that would be Bo Nix’s ankle injury. Nix didn’t look injured at all during the play in question, but will miss the remainder of the playoffs. Enter Jarrett Stidham, who will be looking to replicate what Nick Foles accomplished when he defeated the Patriots in the playoffs eight years ago.
Stidham isn’t a terrible quarterback, but he’s certainly a downgrade from Nix even though I’m not a fan of the latter. The big difference is that Nix can use his legs extremely effectively, while Stidham is a pocket passer. Nix is also more accurate than Stidham, owning a career completion percentage of 64.8 compared to Stidham’s 59.4 completion rate. Stidham isn’t completely inept like a Brady Cook or a Chris Oladokun, but he’s not Foles either. Before his magical playoff run, Foles enjoyed a great season in which he had 27 touchdowns and two interceptions. Stidham, conversely, has eight career touchdowns and eight career interceptions.
Also, Stidham has his work cut out for him. He’ll be battling Mike Vrabel’s defense, which features an improved pass rush and an excellent secondary. Since the midway point of the season and including the playoffs, the Patriots are 10th in defensive EPA. I constantly point out that whenever a backup quarterback battles a top-10 defense, he must be considered as an automatic fade. It’d be one thing if Stidham could rely on a strong rushing attack, but the Broncos are ranked in the 20s in run offense EPA.
NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Denver’s defense knows that it must step up to help Stidham advance to the Super Bowl. This is what the 2017 Eagles did, locking down the Atlanta and Minnesota offenses in the two games prior to the championship.
The problem is that the Broncos have a paper tiger defense. They have a strong pass rush, and Patrick Surtain II is incredible, but their stop unit overall is not nearly as good as advertised. The Broncos ranked “just” 13th in defensive EPA in the second half of the season and the playoffs. The Packers scored 26 points against them before losing Christian Watson and Zach Tom, while the Jaguars lit them up for 34 points. Trevor Lawrence threw all over the Broncos, who couldn’t pressure him at all. Josh Allen, meanwhile, scored 30 points in regulation and should have tacked on a field goal if the officials didn’t make the worst call we’ve seen in a playoff game since the non-pass interference in the NFC Championship following the 2018 season.
Every decent quarterback who has battled the Broncos this year has thrived against them, with the exception of Patrick Mahomes, who struggled because of offensive line injuries. Even Marcus Mariota lit up Denver. Drake Maye has made some mistakes in the playoffs, but he’s also made some huge plays, and I believe we’ll see enough of those. Maye will also be able to lean on his rushing attack. James Cook just ran all over the Broncos, so Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson will create some big plays on the ground.
RECAP: I was really looking forward to fading the Broncos in the playoffs. We had the right team, wrong result in the divisional round once the Bills were screwed over by the officials and also themselves with three horrible lost fumbles. The Broncos have been the luckiest team in the NFL this year, and their great fortune continued in their bogus win over the Bills in which Buffalo outgained Denver by 100 net yards despite having one fewer possession in overtime.
That is, their great fortune continued until Nix suffered his ankle injury. Perhaps this was karma coming back to haunt the Broncos, but it’s also an annoyance because this is not a favorable situation to bet the Patriots. First of all, while there is a difference between Nix and Stidham in their scrambling ability, there’s not a huge disparity either, in that Nix is just a mediocre passer just like Stidham. There is not a seven-point difference between the two, but that’s exactly what the line movement was. The Patriots were +1.5 on the advance line in this matchup, and now they’re -5.5. This line should have moved three or four points, but not seven!
Second, the injury to Nix and the subsequent line shift to a big underdog has created a psychological edge for the Broncos that we saw when the Eagles had an “us against the world” mentality during their 2017 playoff run. If you recall, they donned “underdog” masks because no one believed in them. The Broncos will have the same attitude.
There is a difference between those two situations, however, so this doesn’t mean that the Broncos are suddenly going to win the Super Bowl. First of all, Stidham, as discussed, is not as good as Foles. And second, that 2017 Eagles team was elite outside of Foles. They were easily the best team in the NFL prior to the Carson Wentz injury. The Broncos, conversely, are just an above-average team that barely beat mediocre or bad teams all year. They beat the Raiders 10-7, the Jets 13-11, the Titans 20-12, the Marcus Mariota-led Redskins 27-26, the Giants 33-32, the Chris Oladokun-led Chiefs 20-13, and the backup Chargers 19-3. If the Broncos had one or two close calls against these teams, that’d be one thing, but this was every week with the Broncos. Their only two convincing victories came against the Jake Browning-led Bengals, which was close for a while, and the Cowboys before they acquired Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson.
The 2017 Eagles were better than the 2017 Falcons and 2017 Vikings, the two teams they vanquished en route to the Super Bowl. The 2025 Broncos, however, are not better than the 2025 Patriots. Still, it’s not that much of a discrepency where the Broncos should be 5.5-point home underdogs with Stidham, so I will be on the Broncos to cover the spread. I believe the Patriots will win by 1-4 points, so Denver is the reluctant play in the AFC Championship.
Our Week 21 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow
@walterfootball for updates.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread keeps fluctuating between 4.5 and 5.5. I’d love to get a +6 because six is the third-most-likely outcome of any NFL game, but it’s highly doubtful we’ll see that sort of number. One injury to watch is Harold Landry, who missed Wednesday’s practice.
SATURDAY NOTES: Harold Landry is out, which is a big blow for the Patriots. They can overcome the loss, however, and they’ll at least have a nice boost with Mack Hollins expected to return. Hollins is not a great player by any means, but he’s a far better deep threat than Kyle Williams, so the Patriots will be able to stretch the field more with Hollins presumably back on the field.
PLAYER PROPS: We’re going to do what we did in the prior Patriots game, and bet both teams to score a defensive touchdown, and then parlay the two results. The Patriots are +600 and the Broncos are +650. The parlay between them is +5375. All of this is at FanDuel. You can
Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
SAME-GAME PARLAY: We’re going to parlay Drake Maye over 223.5 passing yards, Rhamondre Stevenson under 17.5 receiving yards, and R.J. Harvey under 37.5 rushing yards. This $25 parlay pays $177.17, boosted 30 percent at FanDuel. You can
Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Troy Franklin and Harold Landry are both out. I don’t think either injury will affect the result of this game. The sharps have been on the Broncos all week, while the public has pounded the Patriots. The best line for the Broncos is +3.5 -105 at DraftKings. You can
Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
I am going to put four units on the Broncos +3.5 and then some more live in game. Please note that I am not betting this game outside of hedging our Super Bowl exactas, which you can find on the
NFL Betting Futures page. If you did not bet these exactas with me, then please ignore this four-unit wager.
The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.
The Broncos will have an “us against the world” mentality.
The Spread. Edge: Broncos.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -3.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -1.5.
Computer Model: Patriots -3.
The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
Everyone is betting the Patriots.
Percentage of money on New England: 68% (266,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
Broncos are 36-19 ATS as home underdogs since 1991.
Opening Line: Patriots -4.5.
Opening Total: 40.5.
Weather: Slight chance of snow, 16 degrees. Light wind.
AFC Championship NFL Pick: Patriots 23, Broncos 20
Broncos +3.5 -105 (4 Units) – DraftKings
— Correct; +$400 Over 42.5 (0 Units)
— Incorrect; $0 Player Prop: Patriots Defense Anytime Touchdown +600 (1 Unit) – FanDuel
— Incorrect; -$100 Player Prop: Broncos Defense Anytime Touchdown +650 (1 Unit) – FanDuel
— Incorrect; -$100 Same-Game Parlay: Patriots Defense Anytime Touchdown & Broncos Defense Anytime Touchdown +5375 (0.5 Units to win 26.88) – FanDuel
— Incorrect; -$50 Same-Game Parlay: Drake Maye over 223.5 passing yards, Rhamondre Stevenson under 17.5 receiving yards, R.J. Harvey under 37.5 rushing yards +708 (0.25 Units to win 1.77) – FanDuel
— Incorrect; -$25 Live Bet: Jarrett Stidham over 19.5 rushing yards -108 (1 Unit) – FanDuel
— Correct; +$100 Live Bet: Drake Maye over 66.5 rushing yards -125 (2 Units) – FanDuel
— Incorrect; -$250 Live Bet: Drake Maye 80+ rushing yards +550 (1 Unit) – FanDuel
— Incorrect; -$100 Live Bet: Drake Maye 90+ rushing yards +1200 (1 Unit) – FanDuel
— Incorrect; -$100 Live Bet: Rhamondre Stevenson over 72.5 rushing yards -118 (2 Units) – FanDuel
— Incorrect; -$235 Live Bet: Rhamondre Stevenson 80+ rushing yards +182 (1 Unit) – FanDuel
— Incorrect; -$100 Live Bet: Rhamondre Stevenson 90+ rushing yards +490 (1 Unit) – FanDuel
— Incorrect; -$100
Patriots 10, Broncos 7
Los Angeles Rams (12-5) at Seattle Seahawks (14-3)
Line: Seahawks by 2.5. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Jan. 25, 6:30 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Rams.
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A reminder that
Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is about why I decided to not attend my 25th high school reunion. Spoiler alert: One of the reasons was I didn’t want to get shot!
This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:
Kevin Reilly: Welcome to the city of Seattle, home of a bunch of losers and Starblocks Coffee, which Mother says I cannot drink because it’s too dangerous and will make me way too hyper. Tonight, we have the St. Louis Rams taking on the Seattle Supersonics. Guys, I’m still really pissed that my Philadelphia Eagles got kicked out of the playoffs by dirty officials, the same ones who screwed over the Buffalo Bulls, who are my second-favorite team because they beat the Cowboys in the Super Bowl twice, so they are my alternate team when my Philadelphia Eagles are kicked out because of the officiating being dirty!
Emmitt: Thanks, Dirty. I also has a second-favorite team, and they the Dallas Cowboy. I think I play for the Cowboy when I was a running back in the National League of Footballs. They sound like my favorite team which are the Texas Cowboy, which might also be the team I play for when I was running back in the National Conference of Football. I think it is OK to have a second-favorite teams especially if your first-favorite team also your second-favorite team also as well.
Kevin Reilly: Emmitt, I’m beginning to think that you don’t know what you’re talking about. You’re not the football expert like me and New Daddy, who used to play in the NFL, too. He was a great quarterback but I’m sure he would say that I have surpassed him in football knowledge if the number of Nick Foles bobbleheads in my bedroom are any indication. Would you say I’ve surpassed you in football knowledge, New Daddy?
Jay Cutler: Surpassed in the what now? I’m trying to order paint on Amazon so I can watch it dry later so I don’t have to hang out with my idiot son-in-law. Wait, who even asked me this question? Meh, don’t answer because I don’t even care.
Kevin Reilly: New Daddy, I’m sure you’re talking about another son-in-law because I’m the best when it comes to football knowledge and I’m the most fun to hang out with especially when we play Monopoly on family night, and I get to start with all the money in the bank.
Tollefson: Kevin, you need a new game to play on family night. When my female slaves and I play a board game on family night, we play Sorry! Except, I have different rules. If I find that one of my female slaves did not clean her specific part of the house, she either says “Sorry!” or ends up paying the price.
Kevin Reilly: Tolly, what is that price? I’m curious if it’s cheaper than what I just sent my girlfriend overseas. She says that she’s going to send me an ATM card, which I can use until she comes to America. I asked if I could buy more Nick Foles bobble heads with this ATM card, and she said yes, so she is a great girlfriend already. Sounds like I found my sold mate!
Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mate. I have breaking news to report about this game. The Rams are being led by Kurt Warner, and everyone is calling this offense the Greatest Show on Turf. They have a tough matchup against the Seahawks defense, which is being called the Legion of Broom. Back to you, Mate.
Kevin Reilly: Clarissa, first of all, I never said let’s go down to Clarissa Thomas. You just started talking over me, which is very rude. A woman should never talk over a man, unless it’s Mother, and then you have to listen, or you don’t get macaroni and cheese for dinner. Second, there’s no such thing as Greatest Show on Turf. You’re making that up like you make up everything else. If they’re the Greatest Show on Turf, why did they only score 20 points against the Chicago Bulls last week!? Everyone knows the Greatest Show on Turf is my Philadelphia Eagles until the refs cheated!
Mina Kimes: I can’t believe what I’m hearing. You’ve had the greatest NFL analyst in the world on your broadcast for nearly a whole season, and you’ve heard absolute gems from her, like Geno Smith is a top-one quarterback, which is great analysis you’ll never hear anywhere else, and now I hear that you’re saying that a woman should never talk over a man. I’m going to go to the corporate executives and have you removed because this is the worst thing you possibly could have said, even worse than the N-word. Not only can women talk over men; they should be encouraged to do so. Has any other man on this telecast opined that Geno Smith is a top-one quarterback in the NFL? No! Did any other man on this show say that you can beat quarters coverage by throwing deep? No! Did any other man on this telecast pick the Texans to beat the Patriots like I did? No! Therefore, as the only female Asian NFL analyst on this show, I will now talk over you!
Kevin Reilly: I don’t-
Mina Kimes: I’m talking over you now!
Kevin Reilly: But-
Mina Kimes: I’m talking over you now!
Kevin Reilly: Nick Fo-
Mina Kimes: Geno Smith is No. 1!
Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! DID YOU JUST SAY THAT GENO SMITH IS NO. 1!? HOW CAN ANY MAN BE NO. 1!? MINNOW KIMES, ARE YOU REALLY A MAN, BECAUSE ONLY A MAN WOULD SAY THAT ANOTHER MAN IS THE BEST QUARTERBACK IN THE NFL!? I WISH I COULD CRITICIZE YOUR CREDENTIALS BUT YOU ARE A FEMALE ASIAN NFL ANALYST, SO YOU ARE IMMUNE FROM CRITICISM, SO I DON’T KNOW WHAT TO DO AND NOW MY HEAD HURTS, REEEEE!!!
Kevin Reilly: What is-
Mina Kimes: I’m talking over you now!
Kevin Reilly: But-
Mina Kimes: I’m talking over you now!
Kevin Reilly: Nick Fo-
Mina Kimes: Geno Smith is No. 1!
Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you’re being interrupted by Mina Kimes, Kevin. Let’s talk about common interruptions, Kevin. We begin with digital interruptions, Kevin, like e-mails, calls, and social media alerts, Kevin. There’s also notifications and constant connectivity, Kevin. Let’s move on to workplace interruptions, Kevin. Examples include colleagues stopping by, Kevin, and impromptu meetings, Kevin. And don’t forget loud co-workers, Kevin. Care to share about internal interruptions, Kevin? These include stress, feeling overwhelmed, and strong emotions like anxiety, Kevin. How about environmental, Kevin? There’s background noise and lack of clear boundaries, Kevin. Last but not least, Kevin, don’t forget about social, Kevin, which includes friends, Kevin, which you don’t have, Kevin.
Kevin Reilly: I HAVE FRIENDS, CHARLES-
Mina Kimes: I’m talking over you now!
Kevin Reilly: I HATE YOU CHARLES D-
Mina Kimes: I’m talking over you now!
Kevin Reilly: YOU SUCK, MINA K-
Mina Kimes: I suck!?!??! What did I do to deserve this!!??!?!
Kevin Reilly: WHEN MY GIRLFRIEND ARRIVES IN AMERICA IN TWO WEEKS, WE WILL DESTROY YOU AND CHARLES DAVIS! We’ll be back right after this!
LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams had the No. 1 offense in the NFL last year, but based upon their performance in Chicago, anyone watching football for the first time this year wouldn’t have believed it. The Rams, after all, scored just 17 points in regulation against a poor Chicago defense that surrendered 42 points to the 49ers a few weeks ago. The Bears had the worst pressure rate in the NFL, yet were able to rattle Stafford with blitzes even though Stafford is usually elite against blitzes. It was a shocking result, to say the least.
Perhaps Stafford will rebound in this game. It could be that he was bothered by the cold and windy conditions, or perhaps his finger wasn’t 100 percent. Either way, he’ll have another week to heal, and he’ll be playing in warmer conditions. Seattle is no tropical paradise, but 40 degrees and light wind will feel like a dome compared to what Stafford experienced in Chicago.
The problem for Stafford is that he’ll be battling a tough Seattle defense that has the No. 2 pressure rate in the NFL. This didn’t bother Stafford in a shootout during a Thursday night affair in Seattle, however. Stafford has a great offensive line in front of him that can keep the Seattle pass rush at bay. Also, the Seahawks are incredibly weak to tight ends, and the Rams utilize four of those.
SEATTLE OFFENSE: While the Rams scored 30 points in the first three quarters of that aforementioned Thursday night affair, the Seahawks posted only 14 points before things really broke their way with a punt return touchdown and a two-point conversion that never should have happened. This wasn’t a surprise because Sam Darnold was having his usual awful game against a team with a great pass rush.
Darnold has an extreme dichotomy when he’s under pressure compared to when he’s kept clean. When Darnold has no pressure in his face, he is able to play like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. If you don’t believe me, check the stats: When kept clean this year, Darnold has completed 74.5 percent of his passes on a 9.4 YPA. When under pressure, his completion percentage drops to 52.1, while his YPA plummets to 6.5. We saw how Darnold looked under pressure in the playoffs last year against these very same Rams, who have the very same pass rush. And we saw Darnold throw four interceptions against these very same Rams in the first meeting this year. Darnold had a great comeback in the second battle, but only after the Rams took their foot off the gas while up 30-14.
Additionally, Darnold has a mysterious oblique injury that could prevent him from being 100 percent. This oblique injury didn’t bother Darnold against the 49ers because he needed to complete only 12 passes in the blowout in which he was able to lean on Kenneth Walker, the defense, and special teams. Darnold also had the luxury of battling a 49ers defense with no pass rush. The Rams bring much more heat and will make life difficult for Darnold once again.
RECAP: I picked the Rams in the first matchup against the Seahawks. I bet the Rams in the second matchup against the Seahawks. And I will be on the Rams once more. Los Angeles simply has a huge advantage over Darnold with the pressure that it can bring. Darnold folds like a cheap suit under pressure. I know that he had a ridiculous comeback in the second meeting this year, but those came with fluky circumstances, featuring a punt return touchdown, a botched two-point conversion call by the officials, and the Rams taking their foot off the gas on a short week.
On top of that, we may be getting some good line value if there’s a viable +3 line available. The Rams were +1.5 on the advance line, so it’s curious that they would go to +3. Of course, it would be because of public perception that the Seahawks are an invincible team after they destroyed the 49ers, but San Francisco was an extremely flawed team that had zero pass rush. Still, a 41-point performance may excite bettors, but it really shouldn’t. I’m not a big fan of trends, but it’s not a surprise that teams that score 40-plus points in the playoffs are 12-21 against the spread the following game since 1989. There’s obviously nuance to something like this, but the crux of it is that teams that notch 40 or more points tend to see their lines inflated, which is the case in this game.
Also, a 40-point outing could be an indication that a team played way above their talent level. Andy Iskoe, our weekly guest on the show on Wednesday, says that teams will play way above their talent level three times per year and play well below their talent level three times per year. The Seahawks clearly did the former last week, so they’re likely to regress to the mean. Conversely, the Rams offense performed way below expectations, so I would expect them to have a much better performance. A confluence of the two should allow the Rams to cover this spread, especially if there’s a +3 line available.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Still no +3, though Cassandra in the livestream chat alerted me that there was a +3 -120 at Fanatics, a.k.a. Scamatics. We’ll continue to keep a lookout for this favorable number. One injury of note is that Charles Cross didn’t practice Wednesday. His absence would be a huge deal against the Rams’ great pass rush.
SATURDAY NOTES: Charles Cross missed the first two days of practice, but doesn’t have an injury designation, so he will play. We’re still holding out hope for a viable +3 line, but I don’t see one yet.
PLAYER PROPS: We’re going to bet combined passing yards 500+ and 650+ on DraftKings. These pay +102 and +1000, respectively. You can
Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
SAME-GAME PARLAY: We’re going to parlay Matthew Stafford over 259.5 passing yards, Kyren Williams under 13.5 receiving yards, and Tyler Higbee over 15.5 receiving yards. This $25 parlay pays $178.75 on DraftKings, which is offering a 30-percent boost. You can
Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no surprising inactives in this game. There’s also been no sharp action on either side. The best line is Rams +2.5 -105 at BetMGM, which has two 10-percent boosts up to $50.
The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Spread. Edge: Rams.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -1.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -1.5.
Computer Model: Seahawks -1.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
Percentage of money on Seattle: 51% (248,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
History: Rams have won 16 of the last 23 meetings, excluding when they sat their starters.
Seahawks are 64-50 ATS as home favorites since 2007.
Opening Line: Seahawks -3.
Opening Total: 46.5.
Weather: Cloudy, 38 degrees. Light wind.
NFC Championship NFL Pick: Rams 27, Seahawks 24
Rams +2.5 -105 (2 Units) – BetMGM
— Incorrect; -$210 Rams +2.5 +104 (1 Unit) – BetMGM
— Incorrect; -$100 Over 46.5 (0 Units)
— Correct; $0 Player Prop: Matthew Stafford & Sam Darnold to combine for 500+ passing yards +102 (1.5 Units to win 1.54) – DraftKings
— Correct; +$150 Player Prop: Matthew Stafford & Sam Darnold to combine for 650+ passing yards +1000 (1 Unit) – DraftKings
— Correct; +$1,000 Same-Game Parlay: Matthew Stafford over 259.5 passing yards, Kyren Williams under 13.5 receiving yards, Tyler Higbee over 15.5 receiving yards +715 (0.25 Units to win 1.79) – DraftKings
— Incorrect; -$25 Live Bet: Sam Darnold over 316.5 passing yards -114 (2 Units) – FanDuel
— Correct; +$200 Live Bet: Sam Darnold 350+ passing yards +270 (1 Unit) – FanDuel
— Incorrect; -$100 Live Bet: Sam Darnold 375+ passing yards +630 (1 Unit) – FanDuel
— Incorrect; -$100 Live Bet: Matthew Stafford over 263.5 passing yards -114 (2 Units) – FanDuel
— Correct; +$200 Live Bet: Matthew Stafford 300+ passing yards +270 (1 Unit) – FanDuel
— Correct; +$270 Live Bet: Matthew Stafford 325+ passing yards +580 (1 Unit) – FanDuel
— Correct; +$580
Seahawks 31, Rams 27
Comments on the 2025 NFL Season’s Games and Picks
