NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 17, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2014): 9-4-2 (+$255)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2014): 5-9-1 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2014): 10-4-1 (+$330)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2014): 4-11 (+$320)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2014): 9-4 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2014): 9-4 (-$90)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2014): 8-6 (+$90)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2014): 7-8 (+$100)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2014): 5-11 (-$1,390)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2014): 8-8 (-$130)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2014): 6-9-1 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2014): 11-5 (+$100)

NFL Picks (2014): 126-123-7 (-$2,555)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 28, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 17 NFL Picks – Early Games





Detroit Lions (11-4) at Green Bay Packers (11-4)
Line: Packers by 7.5. Total: 47.

Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Packers -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -8.
Sunday, Dec. 28, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Packers.

We’re going to have new features on the site shortly, beginning with something we published recently. You can go here to Create Your Own Power Rankings – and once you do, people will be sending you hate mail, just like they do for my NFL Power Rankings.

Also, check this out: We have a new Matchup Breakdown, featuring game logs, experts’ picks and more.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Anyone who thinks the Packer offense struggled last week – Bill Simmons remarked that they “only” put up 20 points in Tampa – didn’t really watch the game. After the first couple of drives, the Packers moved the chains quite easily, but shot themselves in the foot with mistakes. They had several drops in Buccaneer territory, and they were stuffed at the 1-yard line on a fourth-down try. With a few minutes remaining in the second quarter, Green Bay had outgained Tampa Bay, 236-0.

The Packers play better at home, so I don’t expect these sorts of errors to continue at Lambeau. The Lions’ awesome defensive front will try to make sure Green Bay screws up again, but Rodgers is pretty well fortified. That wasn’t the case in the Week 3 meeting when rookie center Corey Linsley was still finding his way, and right tackle Bryan Bulaga was just returning from injury. Green Bay’s offensive line is so much better now, and it should stymie Detroit’s front just a bit – enough to allow Rodgers to find his receivers downfield.

Eddie Lacy, meanwhile, wasn’t available at the end of the Tampa game because he hurt his quad. He apparently is fine, and he’ll suit up for this contest. Unfortunately for Lacy, he’ll be battling a Detroit stop unit that is ranked No. 1 against the rush. The Lions haven’t even given up more than 55 yards on the ground in four weeks, so Rodgers will have to do all of the work.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The big news entering this contest is that center Dominic Raiola has been suspended for yet another dirty play. Raiola hasn’t performed all that well this year, but he’s been a constant in an offensive front that has been ravaged by injuries and incompetence this season. Starting as a replacement at center in Lambeau is a daunting task.

Raiola will be missed because Detroit’s offensive line wasn’t very good to begin with, so the Packers should be able to apply plenty of pressure on Matthew Stafford. Green Bay is tied for eighth in sacks (39) and just recorded seven at Tampa. The Packers have also played the run well lately, and Joique Bell won’t have an easy time finding lanes behind his patchwork front.

Having said that, the Lions will still be able to score because of Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. We all saw what Julio Jones did to Green Bay’s putrid secondary a few Monday nights ago. How are the Packers going to contain Megatron and his sidekick?

RECAP: The Lions should always be faded when they’re big favorites coming off wins (even better if they’re on a winning streak). They’re coming off numerous victories, but they’re a big underdog, so this is not a terrible spot for them. Having said that, the Packers are nearly unbeatable at home, and I don’t think this spread has been adjusted enough to compensate for that. We’re not getting a huge edge here, but I like Green Bay for about two units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m holding out hope that this spread will drop to -7, but I don’t see it happening. The sharps haven’t taken the Lions yet.

SUNDAY NOTES: If this line drops to -7, I’ll check in at 3:30. I don’t think it’ll happen though.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
No surprise that the public is on the Packers.
  • Percentage of money on Green Bay: 73% (37,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • History: Packers have won 15 of the last 18 meetings.
  • Lions are 4-12 ATS on the road vs. teams with winning records since 2011.
  • Packers are 24-14 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Packers are 24-13 ATS at home since 2010.
  • Packers are 35-17 ATS in divisional games since 2006.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 56-34 ATS since 2009.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 17-5 ATS after a loss (just 9-4 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).
  • Opening Line: Packers -7.5.
  • Opening Total: 48.
  • Weather: .


    Week 17 NFL Pick: Packers 27, Lions 17
    Packers -7.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
    Under 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Packers 30, Lions 20






    Carolina Panthers (6-8-1) at Atlanta Falcons (6-9)
    Line: Falcons by 3. Total: 48.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Falcons -3.
    Walt’s Calculated Line: Falcons -2.
    Sunday, Dec. 28, 1:00 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: None.

    This is a reminder to get your pick in for the Survivor Pool. Of the 3,289 entries that began the year, only 16 people remain. We lost 14 people because of the Bills, Rams and Eagles last week. Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

    CAROLINA OFFENSE: It’s amazing how different of a team the Panthers are when Cam Newton is healthy. Newton was nursing various injuries earlier, which hindered his mobility. He couldn’t do anything behind a terrible offensive line, especially given that he had just one downfield option to work with. Things have changed drastically ever since Newton recovered from his injuries. He’s being used on designed running plays, and he’s gashing opponents on the ground. The teams he has faced recently haven’t been able to deal with it.

    Newton should have a great game against the Falcons. Atlanta has a poor pass rush that was last in the NFL in sacks prior to this past week’s victory over the Saints. They might be able to get some heat on Newton because Carolina’s offensive line still stinks, but Newton will be able to scramble out of pressure. He’ll also be able to connect with Kelvin Benjamin often; the Falcons’ secondary hasn’t been able to stop anything downfield recently.

    Of course, Newton’s health is paramount, but something that has really helped the Panthers has been Jonathan Stewart’s effectiveness. Completely healthy for the first time in a long while, Stewart has accumulated 437 rushing yards on a 5.6 average against his four opponents since the team’s Week 12 bye. Atlanta’s run defense is in the middle of the pack, so Stewart should be able to continue his success.

    ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Panthers’ defense has been unquestionably better since the bye. They’ve been great against the pass, surrendering a 5.82 YPA to their previous four opponents, which is the third-best such mark over that span. Some changes in the secondary have really helped. Carolina has inserted a pair of rookies – Tre Boston and Bene Benwikere – into the lineup, and both have played well. Charles Johnson has also been fantastic; he had a mediocre start to his 2014 campaign, but has really come on lately.

    Having said that, the Panthers’ secondary hasn’t really been tested in three of the four contests. They shut down Drew Brees in the Superdome, but their other matchups were against Teddy Bridgewater (a decent one), Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel/Brian Hoyer. That quartet isn’t exactly Hall of Fame-bound. Matt Ryan should be able to engineer plenty of scoring drives, as I don’t see the Panthers covering Julio Jones at all. Johnson should be able to disrupt some possessions with Johnson, but Atlanta will put up a decent amount on the scoreboard.

    Making matters worse for the Panthers, they may actually have to worry about a competent running back. Steven Jackson is banged up, which may force the Falcons to utilize the more-talented Devonta Freeman. Carolina still doesn’t stop the run particularly well, so this could be a problem.

    RECAP: The only edge I can find in this game is that the spread is too high. My calculated number is Falcons -2, as I rate the Panthers just a point higher than Atlanta. I’ll bet a unit on Carolina, but that’s about it.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have jumped all over the Panthers, dropping this from +4.5 to +3. This is still one unit for me.

    SUNDAY NOTES: The +4 and +4.5 spreads are long gone. The pros took those numbers, and all of the value has disappeared.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
    A slight lean on the Falcons.
  • Percentage of money on Atlanta: 60% (25,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Panthers have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.
  • Matt Ryan is 30-21 ATS at home.
  • Opening Line: Falcons -3.5.
  • Opening Total: 48.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 17 NFL Pick: Falcons 23, Panthers 20
    Panthers +3 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
    Under 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Panthers 34, Falcons 3






    St. Louis Rams (6-9) at Seattle Seahawks (11-4)
    Line: Seahawks by 11. Total: 41.5.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Seahawks -10.
    Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -13.
    Sunday, Dec. 28, 4:25 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

    Emmitt on the Brink continues in Season 7! Emmitt and his crew gather all of the Walking Bucs in Tampa so that Adrian Peterson can use his Switch of Destiny to end the apocalypse.

    ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Based on how these teams are playing, it’s hard to believe that the Rams upset the Seahawks earlier in the season. But they did just that, thanks to a barrage of crazy special-teams plays. Some nice running from Tre Mason helped as well; the shifty rookie running back totaled 85 rushing yards and a touchdown on just 18 attempts, running well enough so Austin Davis didn’t have to do much against the Legion of Boom.

    Mason most definitely won’t have as much success in this contest. The Seahawks have become extremely difficult to run against, as they’ve surrendered just 2.97 YPC over the past four weeks; only the Lions have maintained a better figure in that span. The difference has been the return of Bobby Wagner. One of the top linebackers in the NFL, Wagner has solidified Seattle’s ground defense, so Mason may have an issue getting half of the yardage he accumulated back in Week 7.

    Davis won’t be the quarterback this time though. It’ll be Shaun Hill, who has been much more careful with the football, save for a couple of instances. However, I don’t think it’ll matter. The Rams have decent receivers, but no one who will be able to threaten Richard Sherman or the other Seahawk defensive backs.

    SEATTLE OFFENSE: Whereas the Seahawks have improved against the run lately, the Rams have gotten much worse against it. They were once ranked in the top five in terms of YPC, but they’ve struggled mightily against it the past two weeks. It’s gotten so bad that even the plodding Andre Williams trampled St. Louis last Sunday. The difference, as far as I can tell, has been Aaron Donald. The first-round rookie has enjoyed a terrific initial season, but I don’t know if he’s hurt, or if he’s hit a rookie wall, but he hasn’t been himself the past two weeks.

    It’s not a good time for the Rams to regress against the run, given their opponent this week. Marshawn Lynch bulldozed the Cardinals on Sunday night, and he’ll do the same thing to the Rams, who have permitted 277 yards on the ground in their previous two games.

    Russell Wilson will also do plenty of running, of course. Wilson struggled a bit to pass the ball when Percy Harvin was traded, but he has improved lately. He torched the Cardinals and their talented secondary, and I don’t see why he wouldn’t be able to do the same thing to the Rams.

    RECAP: I think the Seahawks will cover, but I’m not going to bet this game. This spread is right where it should be, and because of Seattle’s impressive win Sunday night, we lost all line value (it was +10 last week). The Rams play well as underdogs, but I think the Seahawks are the right side, as they’ll be motivated to avenge a loss to the Rams earlier in the year.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some professional money on the Rams. It wouldn’t surprise me if St. Louis covered.

    SUNDAY NOTES: This line has dropped to -11, but I’m not sure if it’ll go down any further. It’s worth waiting on a -10, since 11 isn’t a key number.


    The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.
    No edge found, outside of Seattle revenge.


    The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
    A bit of action on the Seahawks.
  • Percentage of money on Seattle: 65% (22,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • History: Seahawks have won 16 of the last 19 meetings.
  • Jeff Fisher is 47-31 ATS as an underdog since 2006.
  • Jeff Fisher is 5-2 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+ with the Rams.
  • Rams are 10-4 ATS on the road after a home loss of 10+ excluding September games since 2005.
  • Jeff Fisher is 6-12 ATS on the West Coast since 1999.
  • Seahawks are 30-12 ATS as home favorites since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Seahawks -13.
  • Opening Total: 41.
  • Weather: .


    Week 17 NFL Pick: Seahawks 31, Rams 13
    Seahawks -11 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Over 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Seahawks 20, Rams 6






    Arizona Cardinals (11-4) at San Francisco 49ers (7-8)
    Line: 49ers by 6.5. Total: 37.5.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : 49ers -4.
    Walt’s Calculated Line: 49ers -2.5.
    Sunday, Dec. 28, 4:25 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: 49ers.

    A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Christmas shopping, 2014.

    ARIZONA OFFENSE: Bruce Arians has seen enough of Ryan Lindley and has opted to make the switch to Logan Thomas. It’s the right move. Lindley was brutal against the Seahawks, as he missed open receivers and nearly got Larry Fitzgerald killed on a couple of occasions. Thomas may do the same thing, but at least he’s mobile. That’s one dimension Seattle didn’t have to worry about Sunday night.

    Perhaps Thomas’ mobility will be able to open up some slight running lanes for Stepfan Taylor and Kerwynn Williams. The 49ers are missing their top three inside linebackers, and they’ve struggled to contain the run ever since losing Chris Borland to injury. They even surrendered about 100 rushing yards to Branden Oliver and the Chargers this past Saturday.

    Having Taylor and Williams pick up about four yards each time will be crucial, as it’ll keep Thomas out of long-yardage situations. It doesn’t matter how good the 49ers are in their secondary; Thomas is too inconsistent and inaccurate enough to take advantage of any sort of matchup.

    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Like the 49ers, Arizona has some major liabilities in its linebacking corps. With several inside linebackers missing, the Cardinals have been extremely weak against tight ends this year. The Seahawks did a great job of exposing that, as Russell Wilson hit Luke Willson for several long bombs every time the athletic tight end was matched up on the decrepit Larry Foote, who is somehow still in the NFL.

    The 49ers of past years would’ve followed Seattle’s example and exposed Arizona’s big weakness with Vernon Davis, but that’s not going to happen in this contest. Davis hasn’t tried hard all year because he’s been disgruntled with his contract. He might catch one long pass in this contest, but I wouldn’t rely on him to do much. The same goes for Michael Crabtree, who is banged up. Anquan Boldin is San Francisco’s only reliable receiver, and the Cardinals have the personnel to nullify him.

    San Francisco will have to rely on its ground attack to move the chains, especially considering how inconsistent Colin Kaepernick has been as a passer this year. Kaepernick did, at least, use his legs to scramble for a change last week, but will that happen two games in a row? The Cardinals can be beaten on the ground, as they’ve surrendered a hideous 5.23 YPC to their previous four opponents.

    RECAP: What the hell is this spread? San Francisco by six? Why? Is Jim Harbaugh suddenly going to get motivation to beat the Cardinals while he’s packing up all of the items in his office?

    This is a major overreaction to what we all saw Sunday night. The Cardinals were debacled by the Seahawks, but Seattle is an elite team. San Francisco is crap – it lost to Oakland and almost suffered a defeat against the Redskins, for crying out loud. The team doesn’t score enough anyway to justify this high of a number, and I can’t see Harbaugh game planning too hard for this contest, given that he’s spending time considering where he’ll be next year.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Ugh, I don’t like how Bruce Arians has suddenly changed his mind about his quarterbacks. That tells me that he doesn’t have much confidence in this game. I still think it’s absurd that the 49ers are favored by nearly a touchdown, but I’m going to cut my bet in half.

    SUNDAY NOTES: Once again, I’ll be back at 3:30-3:45 to check on this spread. I’ll add a unit if I can get +7.


    The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.
    How will the 49ers get up for this game with Jim Harbaugh expected to leave?


    The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
    No surprise that people are fading Arizona after that Sunday night performance.
  • Percentage of money on San Francisco: 62% (13,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
  • History: 49ers have won 11 of the last 15 meetings.
  • 49ers are 10-5 ATS with Jim Harbaugh off extra rest.
  • Opening Line: 49ers -4.5.
  • Opening Total: 37.
  • Weather: .


    Week 17 NFL Pick: Cardinals 16, 49ers 13
    Cardinals +6.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
    Under 37.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    49ers 20, Cardinals 17






    Oakland Raiders (3-12) at Denver Broncos (11-4)
    Line: Broncos by 14. Total: 48.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Broncos -14.5.
    Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -13.
    Sunday, Dec. 28, 4:25 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Broncos.

    I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

    I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

    Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

    DENVER OFFENSE: Peyton Manning looks done. He’s still able to outsmart defenses that either are poorly coached or have glaring liabilities, but the physical part of his game just isn’t there anymore. He has floated dying passes with his noodle arm the past four weeks, and it finally caught up to him against the Bengals, whom he wasn’t able to solve for the most part.

    Manning, however, is still the King of the Regular Season, so he should be able to beat the Raiders, whom he torched back in Week 10. Manning went 31-of-44 for 438 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions in that contest. The difference now is that Denver’s offensive line is banged up, but I’m not sure if the Raiders can completely take advantage of that, given that they have the second-fewest sacks in the NFL.

    The Raiders at least stop the run fairly well. Believe it or not, but their previous three opponents have all failed to rush for more than 77 yards. C.J. Anderson has been solid, but the Broncos are having offensive line issues right now, so Oakland will have a chance to limit him.

    OAKLAND OFFENSE: Speaking of the running game, the Broncos looked completely helpless trying to contain Jeremy Hill on Monday night. A big issue was the absence of two key linebackers, Brandon Marshall and Danny Trevathan. The latter is done for the season, but the former will at least be back for the playoffs. However, Marshall’s foot sprain is likely to keep him out of this contest.

    Marshall’s absence is big for Latavius Murray. It’s no surprise that the Raiders have been more efficient offensively with Murray taking over as the primary back. He gained 86 yards on 23 carries against the Bills, which is more impressive than it sounds, given how stout Buffalo has been against the run this year. He should be able to expose the ailing Broncos.

    Murray’s life will make things easier for Derek Carr, who threw two interceptions and maintained a 4.1 YPA in the Week 10 loss to Denver. Carr has gradually made strides this year, thanks to some great coaching from coordinator Greg Olson. However, I wouldn’t expect as many deep bombs from him in this contest, given that he’ll have DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller breathing down his neck.

    RECAP: Can you believe that the public is taking the Raiders? Everyone has overreacted to Denver’s Monday night loss. Manning sucked, but he’s still King of the Regular Season. He has built his career compiling meaningless wins and stats against mediocre and poor teams. This is a classic Manning blowout win in which he throws for 350 yards and four touchdowns, and then arrogant analysts like Trent Dilfer tell us how stupid we were for doubting No. 18. I can’t stand Dilfer (if you couldn’t tell), but I really like Denver this week.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: It’s not a surprise that there were reports about Manning suddenly feeling better. Before a meaningless regular-season game, you don’t say!? I still like Denver a lot.

    SUNDAY NOTES: I’m locking this in at -14, which is still available at Bovada. This number is going to rise.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    This is the Raiders’ final Super Bowl, but the Broncos need to win to get a bye.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Can you believe that people are betting on the Raiders?
  • Percentage of money on Oakland: 57% (10,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
  • History: Road Team has won 10 of the last 13 meetings (Broncos last 6).
  • Raiders are 16-9 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008.
  • Raiders are 2-8 ATS in Week 17 since 2003.
  • John Fox is 8-4 ATS in Week 17 games.
  • Peyton Manning is 5-7 SU when the temperature is 32 degrees or colder. ???
  • Opening Line: Broncos -14.
  • Opening Total: 48.
  • Weather: .


    Week 17 NFL Pick: Broncos 34, Raiders 10
    Broncos -14 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
    Under 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Broncos 47, Raiders 14




    Cincinnati Bengals (10-4-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)
    Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 48.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Steelers -3.
    Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -4.
    Sunday, Dec. 28, 8:20 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Steelers.

    This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Charles Davis, the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to another football game! We have a special treat for you tonight, folks. Our producers have allowed us to interview Kim Jong-un prior to kickoff so the King of East Korea can explain his side of the story behind the Interview hack threats. Kim Jong-un, it’s great to have you with us. First things first, please tell me you’re an Eagles fan, so we can be friends.

    Kim Jong-un: Eagre!? I hate Eagre! Eagre is a symbor of United State American, and I hate United State American!

    Reilly: You hate the Eagles!? How can you hate my Eagles!? You’re an a**hole! I don’t even care what you do in your stupid country; the fact that you hate the Eagles makes you a terrible person! I’m done talking to you. Emmitt, ask this idiot questions.

    Emmitt: Mike, you the king of East Carolina. Yet, you do not want people to see a movie call Interview. Interview always boring. Do you no want people to see movie because you think people will fallin’ onsleep?

    Kim Jong-un: I send hacker to terr Sony people gonna die if they show this movie! This movie have two American kirr me! No can kirr me! I wirr rive forever!!!

    Millen: Kim, if you’ll excuse me, I do not believe you are 100-percent USDA Man. My kielbasa sextant says you are only 27-percent USDA Man and dropping because true 100-percent USDA Men don’t care about being ridiculed in movies. However, these hackers you hired have me intrigued. Perhaps they can insert a cyber kielbasa into my backside during a video chat?

    Kim Jong-un: Hacker not interest in gay sexurar! Hacker my 13-year-ord son and his friends, but don’t terr anyone! Prus, gay sexuar not arrowed in North Korea!!! Penarty for gay sexuar erectric chair!!!

    Herm: WHY CAN’T PEOPLE BE GAY!? THAT’S NOT RIGHT! THAT’S WRONG! THAT’S HORRIBLE! THAT’S TERRIBLE! YOU’RE TERRIBLE! YOU’RE HORRIBLE! GAY IS NATURAL! YOU CAN’T CONTROL IF YOU’RE GAY! CAN’T CONTROL IT! IMPOSSIBLE TO CONTROL IT! INCAPABLE OF CONTROL! LOSING CONTROL! HERM’S LOSING CONTROL!

    Kim Jong-un: You carr me terribre and horribre!?!? In my country you die for carring me these word!!!

    Reilly: I think I like you a bit more now, Kim! Any enemy of Herm’s is a friend of mine. I still won’t speak to you because you hate my Eagles, so you others can continue this interview. I don’t like to associate myself with anyone who doesn’t like my Eagles.

    Tollefson: Kim, I’m wondering why you have a girls’ name? Is it because… ah, I understand! When you pick up chicks and tell them that your name is Kim, they think you’re a sensative guy, so that’s how you con them into coming over your apartment and getting them to cook and clean for you. Genius!

    Kim Jong-un: I… I… I have no girrfriend. I ask cute girr at gym if she want a go see movie carr Interview with me. She say, “no you ugry and fat!” I say, but this movie they make about kirring me so I’m a dangerous, but she raugh so hard she armost cry! She say, “you a no dangerous, you a fat rittle boy and American arr make a fun of you!” So I terr my son and his friend to issue threat on Sony rike nine-ereven!!!

    Fouts: Kim, I think I can assist you in your dating misfortunes. And by “misfortunes,” I don’t mean fortunates that you miss. Boy, would that be exciting! I mean the opposite of fortunes, which is not unfortunes or nonfortunes, but misfortunes. The first step is finding a girl you like. You know you’ll like this girl when your heart starts beating quickly or your palms become sweaty. You know your palms are sweaty when they become wet. Don’t test this out if you’re in a pool, however, or you won’t know if your palms are sweaty or just wet. It’s easy to confuse them! Next, approach this girl. You’ll want to walk normally for this step. Don’t run into her, or you’ll injure her. Girls probably don’t like that, but I haven’t tested it out. After that, tell her that she’s the most beautiful girl you’ve ever seen, even if you’re lying. She won’t be able to tell if you’re lying unless she has a lie detector. If she has a lie detector, you could be in trouble! Then, tell her you would like to have a cup of coffee with her. Don’t make it seem like a big deal. If you ask her for a gallon of coffee, that could be too much.

    Kim Jong-un: Thank you, Fouts-san! I now see mistake I arways make! I arways ask girr for garron of coffee, but maybe girr wirr rike me if I onry ask to go on date with me for onry cup coffee!

    Charles Davis: Kim, did you know that there are lots of coffee size options, Kim? How about a quart of coffee, Kim? What about a half-gallon of Kim? Did you know there are four quarts in a gallon, Kim? I bet you didn’t know that, Kim! Did you ever try a pint of coffee, Kim? What about a liter, Kim? Did you know that’s a different measuring system, Kim? You use the metric system, Kim! We don’t use the metric system, Kim! Let’s try other measurements, Kim! Did you ever ask a girl for a tablespoon of coffee, Kim? How about a teaspoon of coffee, Kim? I bet you can’t guess how many teaspoons are in a gallon, Kim! Oh, you think there are three, Kim!? That’s too low, Kim! Your next guess is two, Kim! That’s even lower, Kim! I guess you forfeit, Kim! The answer is 768, Kim! You were off by just a bit, Kim!

    Kim Jong-un: I not even get chance to guess question! I hate this guy Charres Davis! That’s it! I terr my 13-year-ord son and hacker friend to make threat rike nine-ereven if United State American no kirr Charres Davis because he very annoying, ask too many dumb question and no ret me guess!!!

    Reilly: So, you hate both Herm and Charles Davis? I’m beginning to think we can be friends after all, Kim! We’ll be back after this!

    PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Ben Roethlisberger is having one of the best seasons of his career. With loads of talented weapons at his disposal, he has generated 4,635 yards, 30 touchdowns and just eight interceptions on a 67.4-percent completion rate and an 8.1 YPA. He’s never completed more than 67 percent of his passes in his career, and he has already shattered his career-best yardage mark. His numbers were aided by a 25-of-39, 350-yard, three-touchdown showing against the Bengals in Cincinnati back in Week 14.

    Not much has changed in three weeks, so why wouldn’t Roethlisberger pick up where he left off in that 42-21 victory? Cincinnati’s defense did just look tremendous in a Monday night upset over Denver, but Roethlisberger is far superior to Peyton Manning right now. Those like Trent Dilfer may scoff at such a remark, but Manning is playing like crap right now. He has thrown weak floaters over the past month, and it hasn’t helped that his offensive line hasn’t been able to pass protect against anyone. The Bengals put heavy pressure on him, but they still have the fewest sacks in the NFL. Pittsburgh’s front should be able to keep them out of the backfield.

    The Bengals also had major issues containing Le’Veon Bell. The talented runner was unstoppable, gaining 185 yards and two touchdowns on the ground and also reeling in six catches for 50 receiving yards. Cincinnati’s ground defense hasn’t improved very much – C.J. Anderson had some nice runs behind a battered line Monday night – so Bell could go off again.

    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The one difference in this matchup from three weeks ago is Jeremy Hill’s usage. Hill and Giovani Bernard were still splitting touches back then, but the Bengals’ offense has taken off ever since Hill became the primary ball-carrier. Hill has proven impossible to contain. He gashed the Browns for 148 yards and two scores and then followed that up with a 147-yard outing versus the Broncos, who came into the contest with a top-10 run defense.

    I don’t see the Steelers having much success against Hill. They’ve permitted just 52.7 rushing yards per contest over the past three weeks, but part of that was Andy Reid forgetting that he had Jamaal Charles at his disposal. Pittsburgh is just 23rd in terms of YPC over the season, so that could spell trouble in this matchup, as Hill is bound to eclipse the century mark once again.

    The Bengals will need Hill to accumulate tons of yardage on the ground so that Andy Dalton doesn’t have to throw often. Yes, Dalton finally “led” the Bengals to a prime-time victory last week, but he was extremely fortunate that the Broncos dropped four of his incompletions. Combined with an early pick-six, Dalton easily could’ve thrown five interceptions in that contest. The Steelers don’t have a good secondary, which can easily be exposed, but Dalton may not be so fortunate this time. He chokes in the spotlight, and he could easily have a disastrous performance if the Pittsburgh defensive backs actually take advantage of opportunities, unlike the Broncos.

    RECAP: I’ve lost tons of money on the Bengals this year (betting both on and against them). I’m 5-10 ATS in picking their games, so I don’t trust my judgment here. My gut is telling me the Steelers are the right side because they are the better team laying only 3.5 at home, while Andy Dalton is bound to choke again. However, I just can’t justify any sort of wager here.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is starting to bet the Steelers. I could see Pittsburgh pulling out one of its BS non-cover victories, winning by only three. I’ll pass.

    SUNDAY NOTES: This spread has dropped to -3 in some books, but it’s not enough to entice me to bet the Steelers. With lots of money on Pittsburgh in a “chase” game, something shady could happen. I’d still take Pittsburgh if I had to though, as Dalton is bound to struggle in a prime-time game against a superior opponent.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
    The public is on the Steelers.
  • Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 70% (70,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • History: Steelers have won 12 of the last 16 meetings.
  • Bengals are 17-7 ATS against the Steelers if they lost to them previously the same season in the last 24 instances.
  • Bengals are 29-14 ATS as underdogs since 2009.
  • Steelers are 30-13 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Ben Roethlisberger is 38-19 ATS vs. the AFC North.
  • Opening Line: Steelers -3.
  • Opening Total: 48.
  • Weather: .


    Week 17 NFL Pick: Steelers 26, Bengals 20
    Steelers -3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Under 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Steelers 27, Bengals 17



    Week 17 NFL Picks – Early Games
    Carolina�at�Atlanta, Detroit�at�Green Bay, Indianapolis�at�Tennessee, San Diego�at�Kansas City, NY Jets�at�Miami, Chicago�at�Minnesota, Buffalo�at�New England, Philadelphia�at�NY Giants, New Orleans�at�Tampa Bay, Dallas�at�Washington, Cleveland�at�Baltimore, Jacksonville�at�Houston


    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.








  • 2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 16


    NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19


    NFL Picks - Feb. 12




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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-9
    Bears: 11-4
    Bucs: 6-11
    49ers: 10-7
    Eagles: 7-7
    Lions: 9-8
    Falcons: 8-9
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 5-12
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 8-9
    Redskins: 14-3
    Vikings: 6-9
    Saints: 10-7
    Seahawks: 7-9
    Bills: 9-7
    Bengals: 12-5
    Colts: 7-10
    Broncos: 9-6
    Dolphins: 6-11
    Browns: 11-5
    Jaguars: 13-4
    Chargers: 8-9
    Jets: 8-9
    Ravens: 11-6
    Texans: 5-12
    Chiefs: 5-10
    Patriots: 7-9
    Steelers: 11-6
    Titans: 9-8
    Raiders: 6-9
    Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)
    2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)
    2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)
    2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
    2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)
    2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)
    Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)
    Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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