NFL Picks (Week 1, 2016): 13-3 (+$1,735) full review
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2016): 9-7 (-$430) full review
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2016): 7-7-2 (+$880) full review
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2016): 7-8 (-$70) full review
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2016): 6-7-1 (+$115) full review
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2016): 7-7-1 (+$515) full review
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2016): 11-4 (+$1,560) full review
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2016): 8-4-1 (-$60) full review
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2016): 5-6-2 (-$1,170) full review
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2016): 9-4-1 (+$80) full review
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2016): 7-7 (+$225) full review
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2016): 5-10-1 (-$1,090) full review
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2016): 9-6 (-$205)
NFL Picks (2016): 115-87-9 (+$3,375)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.
Vegas betting action updated Dec. 12, 6:35 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.
Go to Week 14 NFL Picks – Late Games
Oakland Raiders (10-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-3)
Line: Chiefs by 3.5. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -3.5 +100.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -1.
Thursday, Dec 8, 8:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: None.
WEEK 13 RECAP: The good news is that I won my November NFL Pick of the Month with the Lions +6 winning outright in New Orleans. The bad news is that I still had a losing week, as I finished 9-6 (-$205).
The late afternoon games were so frustrating. The Bills (five units) led 24-9, but blew that advantage and didn’t cover. Meanwhile, the Redskins (four units) had the cover in hand, down one as the Cardinals were running out the clock, but Bruce Arians decided to be an a**hole and go for the cover instead of draining out the clock. Instead of just ending the game, Arians nearly had the contest go to overtime, as Kirk Cousins crossed midfield on the following drive and had a receiver open for a big gain, but threw a horrible pass instead. Had I hit just one of those picks, I would’ve finished 10-5 and well within the black, so, ugh!
The Seahawks (three units) were at least a winner on Sunday night, but both of those aforementioned games were just soul-crushing that it took away all the enthusiasm from winning the pick of the month.
OAKLAND OFFENSE: The big question everyone has is whether or not Derek Carr and his receivers will be able to thrive in cold weather. It’s expected to be in the 20s in Kansas City, and Carr has never started a game when it’s been that freezing. I personally don’t think it’s a huge deal. Now, if it were closer to zero with gusts so heavy that it would actually affect his passes, that would be an issue for sure. We’ll have to see what the winds will be like, but per the early weather reports, they’re supposed to be around 10 mph, which isn’t substantial at all.
The greater factor for determining Carr’s success is the play of Kansas City’s secondary, which hasn’t been very good, despite Eric Berry’s heroics. The cornerbacks have been the problem; Marcus Peters is banged up and isn’t quite himself, while the other players at the position have been liabilities all year. Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree will be able to get open on most plays, so Carr should be able to get them the ball if he has time in the pocket.
Carr’s protection is the key, as the Chiefs have three terrific edge rushers. Donald Penn will be able to take care of Tamba Hali, but the one weak point of Oakland’s front is at right tackle, where Austin Howard won’t be able to block Justin Houston. Thus, Houston’s ability to get by Howard and whomever the Raiders double-team him with before Carr releases the ball will be a big deciding factor.
KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Speaking of elite pass-rushers, how in the world are the Chiefs going to deal with Khalil Mack? Everyone’s been discussing how great Mack has been this year, and rightfully so. He started slowly, but he’s been a one-man wrecking crew of late, as he single-handedly dominated the Buffalo game when the Bills went up 24-9. Right tackle Mitchell Scwhartz isn’t normally a weak blocker, but he won’t be able to handle Mack.
Andy Reid knows this, so he’ll feed the ball to Spencer Ware and have Alex Smith throw his trademark short tosses. The latter aspect of Kansas City’s offense should work; the Raiders aren’t very good versus tight ends, which spells trouble against Travis Kelce. The monstrous tight end just caught eight passes for 140 yards against the Falcons, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he duplicated that stat line.
As for defending the run, the Raiders were extremely weak in that area earlier in the year. They’ve been better at it ever since Perry Riley became a full-time starter, which wasn’t the case when these teams met up in Week 6. Ware, as a result, won’t rush for 131 yards on 24 carries again.
RECAP: The Chiefs won the first matchup, 26-10. I picked them in that game because Reid was coming off a bye, plus there were poor weather conditions. It was a rainy and windy afternoon in Oakland, and that affected the Raiders’ aerial attack. As you saw by Ware’s stat line, the Chiefs ran all over Oakland and were able to win easily as a result.
Things will be different this time. Reid isn’t coming off a bye, and while it’ll be cold, the wind won’t be a factor, per early weather reports, so Oakland will be able to have success through the air. Plus, as mentioned, the Raiders are better at defending the run now.
I like Oakland quite a bit, as I think this spread is off by a couple of points. The Chiefs don’t have much of a home-field advantage, as they’re 11-17 against the spread as hosts in the Reid era. Kansas City’s home field is worth about 1.5 points, and I rate the Raiders half of a point better than the Chiefs, so that’s how I came up with my calculated number of -1. I like getting two points of value, as well as the key number of +3, though I’m holding out hope for +3.5. This is a three-unit selection at the moment, but I could wager a fourth unit on the Raiders if the spread moves.
I’ll be posting NFL Picks all day Tuesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread jumped up to -3.5 on Thursday morning, but it’s been bet down in most books. However, the Raiders are +3.5 at BetUS right now (also, +3.5 -115 at 5Dimes), so I’ll lock that in. This line is off by 2.5 points, as the Chiefs have the most overrated home-field advantage in the NFL. They are 11-17 against the spread as hosts in the Andy Reid era, and in night games, they are just 1-2 ATS. Both spread losses were to Peyton Manning there, but Derek Carr is playing better than Manning was in the 2015 meeting.
FINAL THOUGHTS: It turns out that locking this pick wasn’t necessary at all, and in fact, it might have hurt me. This spread dropped to +3, but now it’s +3.5 again across the board. This would’ve made me happy because I thought about adding a fourth unit on Oakland. As discussed, Kansas City has an overrated home-field advantage. The Raiders, meanwhile, are slightly better, so this spread should’ve been -1 or -1.5. Unfortunately, there was some bad news in the past hour, as it was ruled that Kelechi Osemele is out because of some sort of illness. Osemele is one of the top guards in the NFL, and his absence is going to really hurt the running game. This reminds me of Brandon Brooks being ruled out for the Eagles-Packers game a couple of Monday nights ago. Making adjustments to the offensive line during game day is very difficult. I wanted to drop the Raiders to two units (or maybe even one), but this pick is locked in, so I can’t make the change.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: Raiders.
Week 14 NFL Pick: Raiders 23, Chiefs 20
Raiders +3.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 21, Raiders 13
Denver Broncos (8-4) at Tennessee Titans (6-6)
Line: Pick. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Dec 11, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: TBA.
OVERRATED-UNDERRATED: I posted betting trends and such in this spot over the past couple of years, but I won’t be doing that as much because I’ll be moving away from trends. Instead, I’ll list some underrated observations that the media either isn’t discussing or is misinforming the public about. I think I’ll do this in conjunction with overrated and underrated teams…
Underrated NFL Teams:
Overrated NFL Teams:
DENVER OFFENSE: There’s no spread posted for this game because it’s unclear who’s going to start at quarterback for the Broncos. Vegas not releasing a line for Paxton Lynch versus Trevor Siemian would’ve been laughable back in September, but we’ve seen how bad Lynch has been in two starts. Lynch is barely functional, as his mechanics are so bad that it causes him to be completely inaccurate. Lynch has major potential and could eventually become a terrific starter, but he’s not ready quite yet.
The Broncos will need Siemian under center to expose Tennessee’s secondary. The Titans nearly allowed Matt Barkley to come back against them, as Chicago was a dropped pass away from winning the game. Perhaps the coaching staff will have shored things up prior to the bye, but I have my doubts. Still, it’s possible for Tennessee to disrupt Siemian if it can put lots of pressure on him. The Titans have the horses to do that, as Brian Orakpo, Derrick Morgan and Jurrell Casey have all performed on a high level this year, and they’ll be going against a Denver front that doesn’t block particularly well.
The strength of the Titans’ defense is defending the run, so the Broncos can forget about establishing that aspect of their scoring attack. Devontae Booker hasn’t been good anyway, as he reportedly was on the verge of getting benched before Kapri Bibbs sustained a season-ending injury.
TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans should be able to handle things defensively, but what about this side of the ball? How can Marcus Mariota possibly score against Denver’s elite defense?
Well, perhaps it won’t be up to Mariota. The Broncos have a tremendous pass rush and an even better secondary, but they do possess a weakness, which is being able to defend power running games. As it turns out, that’s what Tennessee does best. The Titans will feed the ball to DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry continuously, as they have all season. This will be very problematic for the Broncos.
Tennessee obviously needs Murray and Henry to run well because Mariota doesn’t stand much of a chance against the Broncos’ aerial defense. That’s not a criticism of Mariota, as he just doesn’t have the receiving help capable of getting open against Aqib Talib and Chris Harris. Mariota might be able to scramble around for a few first downs and hit Delanie Walker, who has a great matchup against a linebacking corps missing Brandon Marshall, but the Titans will have to rely on their ground attack in this affair.
RECAP: The Marshall loss is a big one for the Broncos, and it’s one of the reasons I think the Titans will win this game. The primary factor, of course, will be the mismatch Tennessee’s running game has against Denver’s ground defense. Lynch’s current incompetence is also considered, obviously, but Siemian could start.
There’s no spread on this game yet because of Siemian’s status. Once there is, I’ll post a concrete selection. Check back, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s still no line available. Who would’ve thought that the books would take so long to post a number in relation to Trevor Siemian’s status?
SATURDAY NOTES: A line has finally been posted, as it was announced that Siemian would start this game. However, there’s no guarantee Siemian will be 100 percent. With that in mind, I’m taking the Titans, as originally planned. I don’t see any line value in this contest though, so I won’t be placing a bet on Tennessee. However, the Titans should be able to keep control of the ball by pounding their running backs right into the weakness of Denver’s defense.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The Titans won’t have Jurrell Casey, which is a bummer. However, I still like the Titans a bit, and it seems like the sharps do as well because the spread is steaming up in Tennessee’s direction.
SportsLine’s Micah Roberts is 22-6 in college football Over-Under picks this season (+1534 profit). He’s also won his last 5 NFL Over-Under picks. You can get all of his plays by visiting SportsLine.com.
The Psychology. Edge: Titans.
The Broncos have the Patriots, Chiefs and Raiders after this “easy” game.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
Week 14 NFL Pick: Titans 20, Broncos 17
Titans PK (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Titans 13, Broncos 10
San Diego Chargers (5-7) at Carolina Panthers (4-8)
Line: Panthers by 1. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Panthers -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chargers -2.
Sunday, Dec 11, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Chargers.
VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot in coming weeks. Here were the four highest-bet sides, as of Tuesday morning last week:
Those teams went 3-1 ATS, bringing the overall record this season to 27-28-1. I sound like a broken record, but the sportsbooks were once again hammered. I can’t remember the books having such a long losing streak like this. I’m not surprised though. As I’ve discussed, the sportsbooks have set such tight lines that they’ve allowed the public to capitalize. My advice to bookmakers is to stop posting tight lines. Why were the Raiders just -3 versus the Bills, for example. That was stupid! Stop posting tight lines, and you’ll start winning.
Here are the highest-bet teams in Week 14, as of Tuesday morning:
I’m posting five because all of these sides have been getting an insane amount of action. I’d avoid taking these teams at all cost because Vegas won’t keep losing money!
CAROLINA OFFENSE: Donovan McNabb and Cam Newton have one thing in common. What, you think it’s that they are black quarterbacks? Don’t be silly. McNabb and Newton both hate ties. McNabb didn’t know there were ties, and Newton refuses to wear them, and rightfully so. Ties are the worst. They are uncomfortable human dog leashes, and people need to stop wearing them. Colin Kaepernick protested the national anthem earlier, but Newton’s cause is much more important. He needs to lead the charge so that men aren’t forced to wear ties any longer.
In all seriousness – actually, I was being serious, but I’m moving on to actual game analysis – Newton hasn’t played well in quite a while, failing to complete half of his passes in his previous three games. This can’t be a surprise, as the Panthers have major blocking issues. Center Ryan Kalil being out has really put Carolina’s offense into a funk, and Michael Oher’s absence hasn’t helped either. Carolina already had issues blocking edge rushers, and it’ll have to deal with a potent pair in this contest, as Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram figure to dominate the line of scrimmage.
The Chargers happen to be difficult to run on as well, so I wouldn’t expect much from Jonathan Stewart. Meanwhile, Kelvin Benjamin will be smothered by cornerback Casey Hayward, who is performing on a Pro Bowl level. Greg Olsen has a nice matchup against a defense that just allowed big gains to Cameron Brate, but that’s about it for the Panthers. I can’t see them doing much offensively.
SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Panthers have issues defensively as well, as they’ve also declined on this side of the ball because of a major injury sustained in the Thursday night affair against the Saints. Luke Kuechly suffered a major concussion and hasn’t been heard from since. The Panthers have been weak to running backs and tight ends in the wake of Kuechly’s absence, so it was hardly a surprise that both Thomas Rawls and Jimmy Graham thrived on Sunday night.
As a result of this, Melvin Gordon, Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry all figure to do well versus the Panthers, and the same could be said of Tyrell Williams and Dontrelle Inman, both of whom have easy matchups against Carolina’s beleaguered secondary.
The only chance the Panthers have of slowing down the Chargers is by rattling Philip Rivers. The problem is that their pass rush hasn’t been as potent as it’s been in recent years. However, Charles Johnson has a great matchup against right tackle Joe Barksdale, who has struggled mightily this season.
RECAP: The wrong team is favored in this game. Though there’s just one victory separating the Chargers and Panthers, San Diego is a much better team. That wouldn’t be the case if Kalil and Kuechly weren’t out of the lineup, but the Panthers are naturally struggling without their top blocker and best defensive player.
My calculated spread for this game is Chargers -2. Unfortunately, there’s not much value here, as there isn’t a significant difference between -1 and +2. I was hoping to get a better number on this contest following San Diego’s loss to Tampa. Alas, the Panthers were exposed Sunday night in that horrible blowout loss, ruining all line value.
I’m still going to take the Chargers for a unit because I love how they match up against the Panthers, but like I said, I was hoping for a better spread. I feel like that’s been a theme since after Week 8!
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp action on the Chargers, yet this line isn’t moving for some reason. I still don’t understand why the Panthers are favored, but it’s not by a substantial amount, unfortunately. Carolina is even in worse shape than I first thought because Charles Johnson is out. I won’t be betting on the Chargers in all likelihood, but they’ll certainly be one leg of a teaser.
SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps continue to bet the Chargers, and understandably so. The Panthers were already worse than they were in 2015, and now they’re without Luke Kuechly, Charles Johnson and Ryan Kalil. With the Kuechly announcement official, I’m going to increase this to two units.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m fine with two units on the Chargers. I’m surprised the sharps haven’t touched this game, by the way with all of Carolina’s injuries.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Sharp action on the Chargers.
The Trends. Edge: Chargers.
Week 14 NFL Pick: Chargers 24, Panthers 20
Chargers +1 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 49 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Panthers 28, Chargers 16
Houston Texans (6-6) at Indianapolis Colts (6-6)
Line: Colts by 6. Total: 47.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Colts -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Colts -3.5.
Sunday, Dec 11, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: None.
If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a brand new weekly fantasy football contest. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest – the Week 14 contest has already been posted, so good luck!
INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Andrew Luck was on fire Monday night, failing to complete just six passes. However, he was battling the Jets, who, in addition to owning one of the worst secondaries in the NFL, didn’t bother trying at all because they lost their “Super Bowl” to the Patriots the week before. If Jets owner Woody Johnson had any pride, he’d offer partial or even full refunds to every Jet fan attending that game.
Luck won’t have as much fortune in this contest, as Houston’s defense presents greater problems, plus the Texans will actually put forth some effort. Houston possesses a pair of terrific edge rushers in Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney. The latter missed last week’s contest, but it’ll be surprising if he doesn’t return for this crucial affair. I especially like Mercilus’ matchup against right tackle Joe Haeg, who happens to be the weak point of the Indianapolis offensive line. Luck, as a result, will have greater issue throwing into a secondary that has actual NFL talent. Cornerback A.J. Bouye has been tremendous, while safety Quintin Demps has also performed on a high level.
Luck will obviously need to engineer drives on his own, as Frank Gore isn’t expected to do much on the ground. Gore won’t be stuffed on every play, or anything, but the Texans are slightly above average when it comes to stopping the run. They limited Melvin Gordon to 70 rushing yards on 17 carries (4.1 YPC) a couple of weeks ago, so they should be able to handle Gore.
HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans haven’t had many issues defensively. It’s been this side of the ball that has been problematic, as Brock Osweiler has been very inconsistent. However, we’ve seen Osweiler be competent against sub-par defenses, and that’s exactly what the Colts possess.
The Colts have made some improvements to their stop unit lately, which includes Trent Cole returning from injury. No one on the Colts outside of Cole can consistently generate pressure, however, so I don’t think Indianapolis will be able to expose the big liability that the Texans have at right tackle. Meanwhile, Vontae Davis clearly isn’t himself; he’s hampered by an injury and is struggling to cover as a result, so DeAndre Hopkins, who just scored his first touchdown since Oct. 6, might be able to find the end zone again.
Speaking of injured players, Lamar Miller sustained a rib injury in the first quarter against the Packers and wasn’t himself afterward. His health will be a big determining factor in this matchup, as the Colts happen to be very weak against the rush – a liability the Jets couldn’t expose because Indianapolis was up big so early.
RECAP: I don’t agree with this spread at all. The advance line was Colts -4. My advance number was -3.5, so it was pretty similar. I’ve stuck with -3.5 because nothing has really changed. The books, however, have made this number -6, which seems insane to me.
What happened in one week? Well, the Texans played a close game in Lambeau, so that didn’t affect this line. Thus, it was clearly Indianapolis’ Monday night blowout. The Colts won 41-10, but did so against a New York team that didn’t put any sort of effort into that game. It was pathetic.
I don’t think the spread should’ve moved two points because of that result. Thus, I think we’re getting tremendous value against the Texans. Now, before you yell at me for betting on such a crappy team, recall Houston’s previous three opponents: Oakland, San Diego and Green Bay. All three are in the top 12 of my NFL Power Rankings, and the Texans should’ve beaten the Raiders. Besides, is there that much of a difference between Houston and Indianapolis? They’re only a few spots apart in my rankings, so why is one team favored by six over the other?
Let’s take advantage of this bad line by betting the Texans. This game will be close – the Colts hadn’t beaten anyone by more than eight prior to Monday night – so I want to lock in +6 while it’s still available. The sharps are betting Houston, so this spread could move down quickly. I went back and forth between three and four units. I’ll go with three, as I can always add a fourth later.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It turns out I locked this in for no reason. The sharps are taking the Texans, but the public is pounding the Colts, so this spread hasn’t moved at all.
SATURDAY NOTES: I feel so stupid for locking this pick in. Hours after my Thursday Thoughts update, this spread rose to -6.5. If you want +7, you can get -120 juice at BetUS and 5Dimes right now, which I would take over +6.5. The sharps are still on Houston.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The Colts have a number of injuries heading into this game, while the Texans will have Jadeveon Clowney and Lamar Miller available. I still don’t understand this spread – it should be about -3.5 – so I’m going to put a fourth unit on Houston. I have three units on +6 and a fourth on +6.5.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: Colts.
Week 14 NFL Pick: Colts 27, Texans 24
Texans +6 (4 Units, 1 on +6.5) — Correct; +$400
Over 47.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 22, Colts 17
Cincinnati Bengals (4-7-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-12)
Line: Bengals by 6. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bengals -3.5 +100.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bengals -3.5.
Sunday, Dec 11, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game
The Game. Edge: Bengals.
If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a brand new weekly fantasy football contest. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest – the Week 7 contest has already been posted, so good luck!
HATE MAIL: Believe it or not, I had hate for my correct pick on Thursday night:
That’s just dumb. You can’t write hate for a correct pick. Taylor was just being lazy at that point.
Here’s another lazy individual:
Really, just one word? And he couldn’t even change his handle? I should be writing him hate mail for being so lethargic!
Here’s someone who actually put forth effort into writing hate:
I find this stuff fascinating. Clearly, this individual is an idiot, as he doesn’t understand how gambling actually works, or he would’ve factored in the juice. He also has nothing going for him, as he’s posting long paragraphs on a comment board of a Web site he clearly hates. That is exactly why he’s laughing so much and taking pleasure in my losses. He has nothing positive happening in his life, so he needs this to make him feel better about himself.
But how did this happen, exactly? Why does this individual have nothing going for him? What happened in his past to make him this utterly pathetic? I would literally pay to find out this guy’s backstory.
Anyway, here are two more:
Mario has generated quite the following on Facebook – 500 friends! – and his comments always generate some sort of a response. Besides, if you can’t appreciate the utter anger of people who yell at Mario for his horrible grammar, you should just jump off a building right now because being incapable of appreciating humor must make your life incredibly miserable and boring.
CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Bob Holtzman reported last week that A.J. Green could return for the Cleveland game, but it’s not looking like that’s the case. When Green was asked if he’d play this year, he told the media that he wants to suit up, “even if it’s Week 17.” That’s an indicator that Green is almost certain to be missing for this contest.
That would normally spell trouble for most teams, but the Browns aren’t most teams. They are absolutely horrendous against the pass this year. Joe Haden has not been himself because of an injury, while the safety play has just been horrendous. Andy Dalton torched the Eagles and their putrid cornerbacks last week, and he could have even more success versus Cleveland.
The Browns aren’t as bad against the run, but that’s still a weak aspect for them. Jeremy Hill hasn’t been very effective as a runner since taking over full-time duties in the wake of Giovani Bernard’s injury, but he could break out of his funk in this contest.
CLEVELAND OFFENSE: It’s amusing that the sportsbooks have posted a line on this game even though it’s not clear who the starting quarterback will be. Robert Griffin has a chance to get the nod, which has MS-ESPN in a frenzy. All the talking heads are shouting about how great it is to have Griffin back, and how the Browns suddenly have a chance with him, even though anyone who has actually paid attention to Griffin knows that he’s a fumbling machine who doesn’t care about studying game film. The ideal situation would be for Cody Kessler to start, but he’s considered questionable with a concussion. If neither can suit up, Josh McCown will get the nod again, which will mean that Cincinnati will pick off several passes.
I actually like Kessler in this matchup, and Griffin, to some extent, when he’s not fumbling the ball. The Bengals have a poor secondary that has struggled against passing attacks all year. Pacman Jones has regressed, while Reggie Nelson’s absence has been huge. The Browns have a couple of talented receivers in Terrelle Pryor and Corey Coleman who will be able to expose Cincinnati’s defensive backfield. That said, Kessler/Griffin won’t have that much time in the pocket. The interior of the offensive line is a mess because of injuries, and it’s so bad that mega bust Jonathan Cooper will start at guard. He’ll be matched up against Geno Atkins, who could conceivably record 12 sacks in this game.
I don’t see the Browns running the ball very well either. It’s not like the Bengals are all that good against the rush, but Cleveland’s ground attack has disappeared since losing Joel Bitonio to a season-ending injury. Now, John Greco is out as well, which is another huge loss.
RECAP: The advance spread on this game was Bengals -3.5. That’s exactly what I made this line. However, in the wake of Cincinnati’s blowout victory over the Eagles, this spread has jumped up to either -5.5 or -6.
We’re getting great line value with the Browns. However, we’ve gotten great line value with the Browns all year, and that hasn’t amounted to anything since Week 8. Cleveland had covered some games in the first half of the season, and nearly won in Miami, but has gotten progressively worse since. Perhaps the bye week helped, but I still can’t trust the Browns. They’re horrible, and they’ve burned me too many times this year. I’m going to take them for office-pool purposes, but I won’t be betting them again this year.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Robert Griffin is starting for the Browns, which almost makes me want to change my pick. It’s completely asinine for the Browns to start Griffin, a bum who does nothing but fumble. This spread is so high though, and there’s so much public money on the Bengals. Bah. I’ll think about it. The sharps, by the way, bet Cleveland at +6.
SATURDAY NOTES: The weather forecast is calling for snow and mild wind, which should help the Browns, as their weak secondary won’t be exposed as much. I could actually see Cleveland winning this game, but I’m still reluctant to bet the Browns after how much money they’ve cost me this year.
FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread is dropping, as the sharps are pounding the Browns again. If you’re as daring, you can get +6 -115 at Bovada.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
The public is pounding the Bengals.
The Trends. Edge: None.
Week 14 NFL Pick: Bengals 21, Browns 17
Browns +6 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bengals 23, Browns 10
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) at Buffalo Bills (6-6)
Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Steelers -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bills -1.
Sunday, Dec 11, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Steelers.
I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.
Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:
1. I was talking to Charlie Campbell on Friday evening, and he brought something to my attention…
“I can’t believe the NFL is having a night game on Christmas Eve,” he said.
Wait, what? I complained about the NFL having two Christmas Day games in a prior entry, but I didn’t even bother checking if there was a Christmas Eve night game. I didn’t think the NFL would be stupid enough to have one!
I mean, what the f***? Seriously. Why did the NFL do this? The last time there were Christmas Eve games, they didn’t have a night game. Now, they are, and it’s not even two West Coast teams battling each other, which would at least make the slightest bit of sense since it would be a 5:30 local start on the West Coast. Instead, we’re getting Bengals versus Texans. Wow, can’t wait for that one!
I don’t understand what the NFL is thinking sometimes. I mean, how the hell could they make such a stupid decision? If Roger Goodell thought NFL ratings were low, wait until he sees what happens when two bad teams battle each other on Christmas Eve night. I think I might be the only person in America watching that game, and guess who’s going to be pissed at me? My fiancee, who probably won’t talk to me for a week because of that!
Goodell is a f***ing a**hole for doing this. He should be removed as NFL commissioner just for this. Seriously. It’s the most asinine decision ever. Playing an international game in Afghanistan would make more sense. Ugh. I’m just dreading getting yelled at. It’s going to suck big time.
2. I complain about ESPN’s coverage of the NFL all the time, but I suppose we should be thankful that it isn’t as awful as they treat the NHL. I mean, Barry Melrose is great and all, but based on this graphic, I don’t think ESPN has any sort of clue when it comes to a hockey. How bad is it? Take a look:
What the hell is this? How in the f***ing world did the Red Wings score 112 goals in a single hockey game? And isn’t overtime decided after one goal? How did they win by four in overtime?
Assuming a full five minutes of overtime, this means that the Red Wings scored 1.72 goals per minute. That would be pretty damn impressive – if the Tampa Bay Lightning didn’t get 1.66 goals per minute. Considering all the stoppages, this game must have lasted at least seven hours!
3. Speaking of ESPN, you know Steve Levy? I’ve never had any sort of issue with him, as he seems like a normal dude. I figured everyone felt the same… until I saw this altered Wikipedia entry:
I have to say, this is absolute genius. I have nothing against Levy, but every single alteration is brilliant. Well done, fellow troll. I’m sure SkankHunt42 would be proud!
PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: It’s safe to say that any team that has issues in its secondary will have trouble against the Steelers and their dynamic aerial attack. Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown are playing at the top of their games right now, and now Pittsburgh is even more potent with a healthy Ladarius Green emerging as a dynamic threat.
The Bills are a team that has issues in their secondary. Stephon Gilmore has inexplicably regressed this year, while safety Aaron Williams’ absence has been huge. Getting cornerback Ronald Darby back from injury would help, but it won’t be enough against Roethlisberger, who will torch Buffalo’s secondary.
I haven’t even mentioned Le’Veon Bell yet, as he will once again benefit from the opposing defense focusing so much on Roethlisberger and Brown. The Bills paid too much attention to Derek Carr and his dynamic wideouts last week, and it ended up costing them in the ground game, as Latavius Murray and Jalen Richard had some long spurts. If pedestrian runners like Murray and Richard could perform well, imagine what Bell will do.
BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills will obviously have to match the Steelers in a projected shootout. Fortunately, they have the offensive weapons to engage Pittsburgh in what will be a thrilling affair.
Sammy Watkins being healthy is huge. He played way more snaps against the Raiders than he did in the previous week, and his usage will only increase. The Steelers don’t have anyone who can effectively cover him, so Tyrod Taylor will be able to connect with him consistently, especially when considering that the Steelers don’t have a potent edge rusher across from James Harrison capable of consistently exposing the major liability at right tackle. Also, Charles Clay will return to the lineup after missing last week’s game because of the birth of his child. The Steelers are weak against tight ends, so Clay could have a rare solid performance.
Meanwhile, LeSean McCoy figures to perform on a high level. He gashed the Raiders last week before leaving the game temporarily with cramps, and the Steelers haven’t been tested against the run ever since going up against Ezekiel Elliott in Week 10.
RECAP: See, this is exactly what I was talking about when I noted that Vegas has posted horribly tight lines since about Week 8. Why are the Steelers only favored by two? The books are taking a ton of action from the public on Pittsburgh, and that would also be the case at -3, and even -3.5. Thus, if the Steelers win by three, and the sportsbooks take another huge loss, they’ll only be able to blame themselves for their incompetence.
Despite what I just said, I’m still taking the Bills. I think they should be favored by a point, so I believe this spread is off by three. Buffalo is a solid team, while the Steelers haven’t played well on the road this year. Since the opener, they’ve won just two road contests – against Josh McCown and Scott Tolzien. They were blown out at Philadelphia and Miami, and another loss could be in store for them. Unfortunately, I can’t go heavy on this, thanks to Vegas’ tight line. I’d love the Bills at +3, but I only like them a bit at +2.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: They’re calling for snow showers and winds in the 15-25 mph range. This definitely benefits the Bills, who won’t have to worry about Ben Roethlisberger connecting to Antonio Brown as much. Both teams have great running games, but Tyrod Taylor will still be able to be potent, thanks to his scrambling ability. I think it says a lot that despite the massive amount of public action on Pittsburgh, this line hasn’t moved at all.
SATURDAY NOTES: This spread has risen to +3, which is what I’ve been pining for. This line is now four points off where it should be. Think about it this way: Bills at Steelers, at this spread, would be -8 or -8.5 at Pittsburgh, which just seems absurd, given that the Seahawks were favored by less over Buffalo. With Robert Woods back, Tyrod Taylor will have all of his weapons on the field for the first time in quite a while, and I think he’ll be able to beat the Steelers, who haven’t played well on the road this year. I’m increasing this wager to four units, and I’m locking in +3.
FINAL THOUGHTS: If you like the Bills, I hope you locked them in at +3 on Saturday night. This spread has dropped to +2 across the board, and it’s even +1 at Pinnacle. The sharps are pounding the Bills like crazy. You can still find +3 -125 at Bovada, which I would prefer over +2.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Bills.
So much public action on the Steelers.
The Trends. Edge: Bills.
Week 14 NFL Pick: Bills 30, Steelers 27
Bills +3 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Over 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Steelers 27, Bills 20
Arizona Cardinals (5-6-1) at Miami Dolphins (7-5)
Line: Cardinals by 2. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -3 +100.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Dolphins -3.
Sunday, Dec 11, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: None.
As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.
Random College Football Notes:
1. I posted this early in the wake of the Big Ten championship: There are countless people on Twitter suggesting that Penn State should be in the college football playoff, and Kirk Herbstreit echoed those sentiments on the air.
I’m a Penn State alumnus, and I couldn’t disagree more with that. If the NCAA Football Playoff Committee wants to put the four best teams in the tournament, which should be its goal, Penn State, sadly, won’t be a part of that. The Nittany Lions’ run has been tremendous, but it’s been aided by a large amount of luck. They beat Ohio State with fluky special-teams plays. They were trailing Michigan State when the Spartans lost their entire backfield to injury. And Penn State was very fortunate to avoid either Ohio State or Michigan in a rematch, battling another overrated squad in Wisconsin instead. The Nittany Lions are a very good team, but they’re not a top-four team.
I’m perfectly fine with the top four being Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Washington in some order. I actually think that’s what the order is going to be, as I don’t see how the committee can take a two-loss conference champion in Penn State over a one-loss conference champion in Washington. Doing so would be a huge spit in the face of the Pac-12.
2. I think this is the time to really institute an eight-team playoff field. The NCAA should do it this year. Seriously, if they were to announce eight teams in the playoffs, who would complain? Literally no one, save for maybe Alabama, since it’s the only team guaranteed to make the field, and it’ll have to play three games to win the championship instead of two. But I don’t think anyone’s going to cry over Nick Saban being pissed off.
Given that there are so many teams in contention for the playoffs, the NCAA should just announce an eight-team field. If the NCAA had any balls and did so, here’s what it would look like:
- Alabama
- Clemson
- Ohio State
- Washington
- Penn State
- Michigan
- Oklahoma
- USC
Seriously, how awesome would that be? Again, who would complain about this? The NCAA would rake in so much money from another round of college football playoff games.
3. And yes, two Pac-12 teams. Washington deserves to be in, while USC has been absolutely dominant since Sam Darnold became the starting quarterback. I think the Trojans would give Alabama a hell of a game in a rematch. An upset would not be out of the question despite the 52-6 result that occurred earlier in the year.
Speaking of the Pac-12, take a look at this:
Umm… so, why does the Pac-12 trophy look like a giant shlong? Has Matt Millen been named Pac-12 commissioner? Has he been inserting this trophy into the backsides of 100-percent USDA Men? Seriously, if I were a Washington player, I would not touch that thing at all.
ARIZONA OFFENSE: Carson Palmer is coming off an incredible performance against the Redskins. He’s been enduring a terrible season, save for his Week 2 outing against the Buccaneers, as he’s been among the league leaders in dropped interceptions. However, he was brilliant against a Washington squad that showed up flat in Arizona.
It may seem like Palmer has a great matchup versus a defense that just surrendered four touchdowns to Joe Flacco, but Palmer has not performed well on the road this season. He failed to complete better than 55.6 percent of his passes in three of four contests, and the lone exception was at Carolina, where he took advantage of garbage time in a blowout. Ignoring that Panthers result because it’s incredibly misleading, Palmer has thrown four touchdowns compared to seven interceptions in away contests this year.
Part of the problem for Palmer has been his offensive line. I don’t see the Cardinals blocking Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake whatsoever in this matchup, so the passing game will sputter as a result. David Johnson figures to have a nice performance, but that’s about it for Arizona.
MIAMI OFFENSE: Moving the chains could be an issue for the Dolphins as well. As with the Cardinals, they have offensive line woes. Mike Pouncey figures to be out again, while left tackle Branden Albert hasn’t been very impressive in his return from injury. Blocking Chandler Jones could be a major issue unless Albert suddenly improves.
With the offensive line struggling, Jay Ajayi won’t find much running room against the Cardinals, who have been solid against the run all year. Thus, Pouncey’s projected absence is also a hindrance to the ground attack as well as Tannehill’s protection.
That said, I do think that DeVante Parker and Jarvis Landry could have success in this game. Patrick Peterson is dealing with an injury and isn’t quite himself, while Tyrann Mathieu is also hurt. Parker, who figures to be healthier this week, could have a decent rebound performance, while Landry figures to expose Arizona’s middling play at nickel with Mathieu either hurt or out.
RECAP: I didn’t mention the Cardinals as one of the teams receiving the most wagers this week, but they easily could’ve been listed. The public is pounding Arizona, as casual bettors are reacting to what they saw last week; the Cardinals beat the Redskins, while the Dolphins were clobbered at Baltimore. This must seem like a no-brainer to them!
I’m taking this as an opportunity to bet on the Dolphins at great value. Because of all the public action, this spread has gone from an advance line of -3, to an opener of -2.5, to a current number of -1. I actually made Miami -4.5 on my advance line, but I’ve re-adjusted to -3.
Even with the re-adjustment, this line is still too high. This spread says the Cardinals are better than the Dolphins, even though they’ve played exactly one good football game since Week 7, and they’ve performed like absolute dog s**t on the road this year. They’ve had some horrible performances this year; they were blown out at Buffalo and Carolina and nearly lost to San Francisco, for crying out loud! It’s going to take me more than one game to believe in them, and I have to believe that the Dolphins will be playing for pride after being utterly embarrassed last week. Thus, I’m going to fade public overreaction and wager three units on the host.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Here’s another game in which there’s loads of money on one side, yet the spread isn’t moving. The Cardinals are a bad team that has played its one good game since Week 6. I don’t think they’ll do it again, especially on the road, where they’ve only beaten San Francisco this season.
SATURDAY NOTES: I can’t believe the Cardinals are favored on the road. Why? The only victory they have away from home is against the 49ers on a short week. They’ve been blown out on countless occasions. Sure, the Dolphins are missing some players, but I think they’ll come back from their blowout defeat.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I was told that both public and sharp money is on the Cardinals, which I find befuddling. I know Kiko Alonso is out for the Dolphins, but come on… Arizona being favored on the road against a competent team? I’ll take the Dolphins, thanks.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.
The Cardinals are a public underdog.
The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.
Week 14 NFL Pick: Dolphins 23, Cardinals 17
Dolphins +2 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Dolphins 26, Cardinals 23
Chicago Bears (3-9) at Detroit Lions (8-4)
Line: Lions by 8. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Lions -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Lions -7.
Sunday, Dec 11, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Lions.
If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Five years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.
I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for the 2013 season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses. In 2014, Donald Sterling answered spammers.
Last year, Tom Brady and his deflated footballs were involved. You can see those Spam Mails here with my responses to avoid clutter. I’ll have brand new spam mail responses every week!
DETROIT OFFENSE: Matthew Stafford has been unbelievable this season, and he’s even in MVP discussion. Many are wondering why he’s better without Calvin Johnson, but that just shows that people weren’t paying attention to what happened last year. First of all, Stafford was excellent in the second half of the 2015 campaign when Jim Bob Cooter took over and the Lions shored up issues on their offensive line. Second, Megatron was not himself last season. He struggled with injuries that forced him into retirement. Thus, it’s only addition by subtraction when factoring in the 2015 version of Johnson.
Stafford is expected to have another great game against the Bears, if public betting action is any indication. Nearly three-quarters of the wagers are coming in on the Lions, as casual bettors are completely igorning how potent Chicago’s defense has been. Despite missing their two stud inside linebackers, the Bears have been stout on this side of the ball, as they’ve been able to clamp down on No. 1 receivers, rush the passer effectively, and stop the run very well. Pernell McPhee’s return to the lineup has been a huge factor, and he should be able to take advantage of the big liability the Lions have at right tackle.
The Lions don’t run effectively, and they wouldn’t have a chance against Eddie Goldman anyway, so Ser Stafford will have to keep firing into an underrated secondary, all while avoiding a potent Chicago pass rush, led by McPhee and Akiem Hicks, who also has a nice matchup against the problematic left guard spot.
CHICAGO OFFENSE: All I’ve been hearing is that the Lions’ defense has improved by leaps and bounds lately. While they have gotten better – their secondary has been excellent, while Josh Bynes has been a big upgrade at linebacker – a major factor for the improved statistics of their stop unit has to do with their offense, which tries to play keep-away as much as possible so that the defense isn’t exposed as much. The victory against the Saints was a perfect example of that, as the Lions limited Drew Brees to just 23 minutes of possession time.
I still don’t trust the Lions to defend the run all that well, so Jordan Howard could have another strong performance. Howard pummeled the 49ers with some strong runs last week, and he figures to do the same thing again, as the Bears attempt to give Detroit a taste of their own medicine by controlling the clock.
Unfortunately for the Bears, their passing attack is highly questionable. While Matt Barkley has exceeded expectations thus far, he has done so versus the Titans and 49ers, two teams that can’t defend the pass whatsoever. The Lions certainly can, thanks to Nevin Lawson. I don’t think the Bears’ offensive line will hold up very well either against Ziggy Ansah and the underrated Kerry Hyder.
RECAP: While the public is pounding the Lions, the sharps have been wagering on the Bears, and I can definitely understand why. This spread is higher than it should be. The Lions, who have trailed in the fourth quarter of all but one contest this year, have just a single victory of more than seven points in 2016. Sure, that occurred last week, but the Bears are a sort of team that can hang around because of their tremendous defense. Since Week 4, Chicago has lost by more than seven points just twice.
Detroit’s scheduling also needs to be considered. The Lions just enjoyed a big win over the Saints, and now everyone is telling them how good they are. It might be difficult to maintain focus here as big favorites considering that they have to battle the Giants, Cowboys and Packers after this.
With that in mind, I like the Bears for a couple of units. Nothing crazy, but I made this spread +7, and it’s currently at +8 at some books. A point doesn’t sound too exciting, but we’re going through one of the primary key numbers (seven), which means a lot.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp money has bet this line down from +8 to +7.5. The Lions are likely to be the other leg of my teaser (Chargers). However, I still like the Bears to cover.
SATURDAY NOTES: There’s sharp action on the Bears, as perhaps the pros have recognized that Detroit won’t be without center Travis Swanson, who has played very well this year. The Lions will be even less successful on offense as a result, and I didn’t think they’d be able to score a ton versus Chicago’s defense anyway. Still, I don’t really want to go above two units on Matt Barkley. Bears +8 -115 is available at Bovada.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The Lions are a big public play today. Casual bettors don’t understand the importance of Travis Swanson’s loss (not Graham Glasgow). Theo Riddick is also out for the Lions. Chicago should be able to cover. Bovada is offering +8 -110.
The Psychology. Edge: Bears.
This is Detroit’s final “easy” game, as they have the Giants, Cowboys and Packers after this.
The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
The public likes the Lions a good deal.
The Trends. Edge: Bears.
Week 14 NFL Pick: Lions 17, Bears 13
Bears +8 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Survivor Pick (12-1)
Lions 20, Bears 17
Minnesota Vikings (6-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)
Line: Vikings by 3. Total: 38.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Vikings -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Vikings -3.
Sunday, Dec 11, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Vikings.
Video of the Week: Whether you love Barack Obama or believe he’s been completely incompetent at his job, we can all agree that he has struggled with the teleprompter throughout his presidency. Let’s enjoy his speech debacles one last time (thanks Nicholas S.):
I’m left wondering if Obama is going to give $400 million to this video creator to take it off YouTube. Compared to all the money he has spent, that’s close to nothing!
MINNESOTA OFFENSE: I’m going to be honest with you. I have no idea how the Vikings are going to score. Seriously. Matvei, who has been wagering against the Jaguars all year, said it best, “I want to bet on the Vikings, but I don’t know if Sam Bradford can score three points.”
I’m sure Stefon Diggs will make some plays, now that he’s had 10 days to heal up, but Jacksonville’s defensive potency can’t be ignored. The Jaguars’ stop unit has been tremendous ever since getting blown out at Tennessee in a Thursday night affair. Their secondary is amazing, and they stop the run pretty well. Their pass rush is the one weak point, but the Vikings can’t block, so that shouldn’t be an issue for Jacksonville.
JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Oh wait, I know how the Vikings are going to score. They’ll do so defensively via Blake Bortles turnovers. Bortles is the worst talented starting quarterback in the NFL by a wide margin. What I mean by that is Bortles possesses a terrific physical skill set, but he just doesn’t know how to play quarterback. The shame of it is, he doesn’t care to either. He refuses to take on coaching, opting not to improve his mechanics or learn what opposing defenses are doing. He prefers to party instead and only loves the lifestyle that football offers him. He’ll be out of the league soon enough though, so I hope he’s been saving up money.
Bortles actually had a great game by his standards last week. That’s because he threw only one pick-six instead of the projected two, and he actually didn’t heave an interception off his receivers’ feet this time. What an amazing performance. In all seriousness, Bortles was once again responsible for a Jacksonville loss, though Allen Robinson didn’t help him by bobbling a pass that turned into an interception. Robinson won’t be able to get open versus Xavier Rhodes, while Bortles will constantly be hounded by Everson Griffen, who will easily beat an injured Kelvin Beachum.
The Vikings have allowed some big runs this year, thanks to Sharrif Floyd’s absence, but I wouldn’t count on the Jaguars doing much on the ground. Both Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon are banged up. It’s unclear if Ivory will suit up, but even if he does, he may not be 100 percent.
RECAP: I wouldn’t advise going with the public too often this weekend because of how much money Vegas has lost the past three weeks, but this is an exception. The Jaguars are just that bad. Wait, let me rephrase that: Bortles is just that bad. Jacksonville’s defense will keep the team in the game, but Bortles will find a way to blow it with a pick-six and various other turnovers.
I’m not going to bet this game because the spread is right where it should be, and I could see Bortles throwing a back-door touchdown to get the margin to within three, but I’m taking Minnesota for office-pool purposes.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Vikings can now be wagered on at -3 -120, which is a hell of a lot better than -3.5, considering how much of a defensive struggle this projects to be.
SATURDAY NOTES: The Vikings are missing Harrison Smith and Joe Berger. That’s huge. Well, it would be huge if Minnesota were playing a real football team. I still feel like the Jaguars will find some way to lose. Whether that’s by four points or one point remains to be seen.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I still have no interest in betting this game. I think you’d have to be crazy to wager on the Jaguars.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
The Vikings are free money, apparently.
The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
Week 14 NFL Pick: Vikings 17, Jaguars 12
Vikings -3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 38 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Vikings 25, Jaguars 16
Washington Redskins (6-5-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)
Line: Redskins by 2.5. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Eagles -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Redskins -2.5.
Sunday, Dec 11, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Redskins.
THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS
I’ve been citing that Tom Brady has lost his “clutch” ability over the past few years, but I guess I can’t do that any longer because he recently won his fourth Super Bowl. Or, can I…? Brady, after all, reached the “Big Game” with the help of his deflated footballs.
Brady was stuck on three Super Bowls for a long time before he resorted to cheating. So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona or tells a new story. Including this one…
Tom Brady was given a new mission from Donald Trump. He was told to visit the neighboring country and convince them to build a wall in case Trump loses to Hillary Clinton. Tom needs to do this to keep the Latin Kings out of the country. To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!
PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Everyone was on the bandwagon – Wentzwagon? – when Carson Wentz was performing on a high level earlier in the year, but it seems as though everyone has jumped off. Wentz’s play has declined, no doubt, but it’s not his fault. His receiving corps has been a mess, and it was even worse than usual against Cincinnati. Jordan Matthews was out, and Dorial Green-Beckham left the game with an injury. Thus, all Wentz had to throw to, besides Zach Ertz, were Nelson Agholor and Paul Turner. I actually like Turner, as he could become a decent slot receiver in the NFL, but Agholor is a train wreck.
Fortunately for Wentz, there are two bits of good news. The first is that Matthews is expected to practice early this week, so it sounds as though he’ll return. Second, Wentz will be battling the Redskins, who can’t stop the pass whatsoever. The secondary is a mess outside of Josh Norman, as every quarterback who has battled the Redskins recently has posted monstrous numbers. Carson Palmer even had his first great game against a real team since Week 2.
The Redskins shut down the Eagles in the first meeting, as Ryan Kerrigan was able to take advantage of a problematic right tackle situation, prompted by Lane Johnson’s suspension. The Eagles were starting some guy nicknamed “Big V” at the time, but they’ve since resolved that problem, as Allen Barbre has done a good job filling in at that position.
WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Wentz will have more success this week, but it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to match Kirk Cousins’ production. Cousins has been on quite the roll following his slow start, and I don’t see him slowing down against the Eagles.
Philadelphia has one of the worst cornerbacking groups in the NFL. That has to be music to Cousins’ ears, as Cousins will repeatedly connect with DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon and Jamison Crowder. The Eagles defend tight ends well, so I wouldn’t count on Jordan Reed doing much (if he even plays), but Cousins still figures to enjoy a terrific afternoon.
To stop the Redskins, the Eagles will need to make sure Robert Kelley doesn’t do much on the ground and put heavy pressure on Cousins. The former seems likely, as the Eagles stop the rush well. However, pressuring Cousins could be a problem, especially with All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams due back from suspension.
RECAP: Here’s another tight line. The public is pounding the hell out of the Redskins, and they would be doing the same thing at -3, or even -3.5. So, why is this a pick ’em? Are the books looking forward to losing more money once Washington wins by two or three points? It’s just stupid on their part to set such a bad line like this.
This is the toughest game to handicap this week, in my opinion. On one hand, the Redskins are a lot better than the Eagles, and I expect them to rebound off such a poor showing at Arizona. On the other hand, this is Washington’s third-consecutive road game, and all of the travel could mean that they are exhausted. Plus, I expect the Eagles to bounce back from such an embarrassing defeat at Cincinnati. The Eagles recently beat the Falcons at home, so I don’t think it’s out of the question that they could do the same thing to the Redskins, who are a comparable team in terms of overall talent.
Gun to my head, I’m taking the Eagles, but only because of public action in relation to Vegas’ recent struggles. I wish we were getting +3. Alas, the books have been unnecessarily stingy since Week 9, which is why they’ve lost so much money.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still have no read on this ame, thanks to this tight line. I do have good news, though! I was looking at the Week 15 NFL advance lines – I’ll post those tonight – and I see about seven or eight games that are off by several points, so I’m excited about that!
SATURDAY NOTES: There’s still no bet for me here, but if I can get +3 on Sunday morning, I’ll definitely reconsider. The Eagles should play better this week, as they’ll have Ryan Mathews and Jordan Matthews back from injury.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I wanted to get to this pick first because I’m making a late pick change. Guard Brandon Brooks is a late scratch, which is devastating for Philadelphia’s chances, as we saw on a recent Monday night against the Packers. Brooks is one of the Eagles’ best blockers, so it’ll be tough for Philadelphia to make the appropriate adjustments on such short notice. I’m not betting this, but I now like the Redskins to cover.
The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.
This is Washington’s third-consecutive road game, which includes a trip out to Arizona.
The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.
Tons of action coming in on the Redskins.
The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
Week 14 NFL Pick: Redskins 27, Eagles 24
Redskins -2.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Redskins 27, Eagles 22
Week 14 NFL Picks – Late Games
NY Jets at San Francisco, Seattle at Green Bay, Atlanta at Los Angeles, Dallas at NY Giants, Baltimore at New England
Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
NFL Picks - Nov. 20
2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20
NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19
Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4
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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905
2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)
2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905
2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)
2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.
| Cowboys: 6-3 |
Bears: 5-5 |
Bucs: 6-4 |
49ers: 6-4 |
| Eagles: 5-5 |
Lions: 9-1 |
Falcons: 6-5 |
Cardinals: 8-2 |
| Giants: 3-6 |
Packers: 6-3 |
Panthers: 4-6 |
Rams: 5-5 |
| Redskins: 5-5 |
Vikings: 4-6 |
Saints: 5-6 |
Seahawks: 6-3 |
| |
|
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| Bills: 4-7 |
Bengals: 2-9 |
Colts: 6-5 |
Broncos: 7-4 |
| Dolphins: 4-6 |
Browns: 3-7 |
Jaguars: 3-7 |
Chargers: 6-3 |
| Jets: 6-5 |
Ravens: 5-5 |
Texans: 5-6 |
Chiefs: 4-5 |
| Patriots: 6-3 |
Steelers: 4-6 |
Titans: 6-3 |
Raiders: 5-5 |
| |
|
||
| Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561) |
2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387) |
2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441) |
2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211) |
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446) |
2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293) |
Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185) |
Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37) |
2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2012 Season:
Week 1 NFL Picks
Week 2 NFL Picks
Week 3 NFL Picks
Week 4 NFL Picks
Week 5 NFL Picks
Week 6 NFL Picks
Week 7 NFL Picks
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Week 15 NFL Picks
Week 16 NFL Picks
Week 17 NFL Picks
Week 18 NFL Picks
Week 19 NFL Picks
Week 20 NFL Picks
Super Bowl XLVII NFL Pick
2013 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2013 Season:
Week 1 NFL Picks
Week 2 NFL Picks
Week 3 NFL Picks
Week 4 NFL Picks
Week 5 NFL Picks
Week 6 NFL Picks
Week 7 NFL Picks
Week 8 NFL Picks
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Week 12 NFL Picks
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Week 18 NFL Picks
Week 19 NFL Picks
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