NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14, 2016

NFL Picks (Preseason 2016): 12-7-1 (+$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2016): 13-3 (+$1,735) full review
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2016): 9-7 (-$430) full review
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2016): 7-7-2 (+$880) full review
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2016): 7-8 (-$70) full review
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2016): 6-7-1 (+$115) full review
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2016): 7-7-1 (+$515) full review
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2016): 11-4 (+$1,560) full review
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2016): 8-4-1 (-$60) full review
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2016): 5-6-2 (-$1,170) full review
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2016): 9-4-1 (+$80) full review
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2016): 7-7 (+$225) full review
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2016): 5-10-1 (-$1,090) full review
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2016): 9-6 (-$205)

NFL Picks (2016): 115-87-9 (+$3,375)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 12, 6:35 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 14 NFL Picks – Early Games

New York Jets (3-9) at San Francisco 49ers (1-11)
Line: 49ers by 3. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: 49ers -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: 49ers -1.
Sunday, Dec 11, 4:05 PM
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The Game. Edge: Jets.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: There was some question as to which quarterback would start for the 49ers, but Colin Kaepernick has apparently been granted a second chance. Kaepernick was benched at Chicago for going just 1-of-5 for 4 yards, taking five bad sacks in the process. He came into the game extremely unprepared, and it’s embarrassing that the 49ers have opted to stick with him as their starter. There’s really no difference between Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert, outside of Kaepernick’s ability to post pretty fantasy numbers in garbage time. Gabbert, however, actually studies film and knows what’s going on because he’s not a self-entitled loser, and he’s been better in practice anyway.

Kaepernick has a nice matchup on paper, as the Jets’ secondary has been an abomination all season. However, Kaepernick probably won’t be able to take advantage of that very often. Even if he put some effort into film study and knew how to dissect New York’s schemes, he doesn’t have the receiving talent around him to do so.

The only 49er player not named Joe Staley or Daniel Kilgore who would start for other teams is Carlos Hyde, and he has a tough matchup. While the Jets can’t defend the pass, they still stop the run pretty well, so they should be able to contain Hyde. I also like the Jets’ chances of pressuring Kaepernick, as the 49ers have three weak spots up front.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Unlike the 49ers, the Jets have opted to make a change at quarterback, and rightfully so. They’ve benched Ryan Fitzpatrick, who needs to be finished as a starter in the NFL. However, Christian Hackenberg should’ve gotten the nod over Bryce Petty and his lollipop arm.

Petty sucks, but he at least has an easy matchup against the 49ers. They have injuries all over their defense and can’t really do anything as a result. Their pass rush is non-existent, while their secondary is in shambles. I know that Petty struggled against the Colts, but compared to the 49ers, Indianapolis might as well be the ’85 Bears.

The 49ers are also atrocious against the run. This didn’t use to be the case, but San Francisco has been awful versus the rush ever since losing NaVorro Bowman to injury. Jordan Howard just trampled the 49ers, and I expect Matt Forte to pick up where Howard left off.

RECAP: Umm… why are the 49ers favored by nearly a field goal? Haven’t we been through this already? They’re the worst team in football and shouldn’t be laying anything – maybe a point, at most! Yet, they’re listed at -2.5, all because the public saw what the Jets were made out of on Monday night.

The Jets will probably rebound off such a horrible showing, but I can’t stomach to bet them without getting at least a field goal. It’s quite possible that they could just pack it in and not try hard at all the rest of the season. They have so many dogs on their roster, including Muhammad Wilkerson and Darrelle Revis, and if I were running the Jets, I would place both on the non-active list like the Eagles did with Terrell Owens about a decade ago. I wouldn’t cut them because they could try harder elsewhere, but I’d effectively make them disappear instead.

At any rate, I’m taking the Jets for a non-bet. If this line hits +3, I may reconsider and put a unit on the visitor.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some Jets +3 -115 lines showed up on Wednesday, but they’ve disappeared. I considered betting that for a unit, as it would be kind of silly for the worst team in the NFL to be getting a full field goal over anyone.

SATURDAY NOTES: Wow, I can’t believe the 49ers are favored by three. San Francisco’s horrible home-field advantage isn’t worth anything close to three points because idiot Jed York built the stadium two hours away from the city, so this is saying that the 49ers are better than the Jets, which is not true. I don’t trust New York because of a possible quit factor, so this won’t be a big bet. However, I’m comfortable wagering two units on New York, especially with 49ers stud left tackle Joe Staley listed as doubtful.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I thought about putting a third unit on the Jets, but the juice is now -120 to do so because of some sharp money coming in on New York. I still can’t believe the 49ers are favored by a full field goal. They’re the worst team in the NFL, and they’re missing their best player (Joe Staley)!

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 52% (10,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: 49ers -1.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Jets 16, 49ers 13
Jets +3 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jets 23, 49ers 17

New Orleans Saints (5-7) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)
Line: Buccaneers by 2. Total: 51.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Dec 11, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.

This is a reminder to make your pick for the WalterFootball.com 2016 NFL Survivor Pool if you’re still alive! We had 2,430 entries to start, with 412 entering Week 7. We’re now down to 116, as we lost 20 players last week, thanks to the Saints and Chargers.

Make sure to check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Jameis Winston is being praised for his great play lately, but he really has been on a tear since his Week 6 bye. Following the week off, Winston has thrown 14 touchdowns compared to just four interceptions, and he’s completed at least 61.5 percent of his throws in all but one game (vs. Raiders) in that span. Winston has battled the Chiefs, Seahawks and Chargers recently, so it’s not like he’s beating up on cupcakes.

Winston has a much easier matchup this week, as the Saints come into town. New Orleans’ issues on this side of the ball are very well documented. Delvin Breaux hasn’t been himself since returning from injury, and that has hurt the Saints’ ability to stop the pass. Cameron Jordan has been amazing this year, but he can only do so much up front. Jordan’s presence will actually be huge in this contest, as he has an easy matchup against the incompetent Donovan Smith. Jordan will need to have the game of his life to slow down the red-hot Winston.

Of course, the Buccaneers could just hand off the ball to Doug Martin and expect great results. The Saints haven’t been bad against the run on paper this season, but they haven’t faced a potent ground attack since Week 7, when Spencer Ware racked up 77 yards on just 17 carries against them.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Winston has obviously been the primary factor for the Buccaneers’ impressive winning streak. However, Tampa’s defense has also chipped in, showing some major signs of improvement compared to earlier in the season when they were torched by Carson Palmer in Week 2, for example.

This matchup could prove to be quite the challenge, however. The Buccaneers have been able to place good pressure on opposing quarterbacks lately, but they’ve battled three teams with shaky blocking. The Saints have a quality offensive line, however, assuming that Terron Armstead returns from injury like he’s projected to. Drew Brees will have plenty of time as a result, and I expect him to rebound from his three-interception performance by torching Tampa’s anemic safeties.

I don’t see the Saints running all that well, as the Buccaneers have sold out to stop the run all year. However, Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower could definitely make an impact as pass-catchers leaking out of the backfield, much like Melvin Gordon did last week.

RECAP: This is my second-favorite play of the week. I like the Saints quite a bit.

Most of the public bets are coming in on the Buccaneers, and predictably so. They’re the hot new item everyone wants to bet on. They’ve been flexed in to Sunday Night Football next week. Everyone loves Jameis. All of this has prompted the spread to inflate to a point where we’re getting awesome value with the Saints.

My number is way off this one. I made this a pick ’em, and that’s exactly what the advance spread was. However, the Buccaneers’ victory at San Diego, coupled with the Saints’ loss to a quality Detroit team, has shifted this line 2.5 or three points. Despite Tampa’s recent success, I think these teams are pretty close to even, and given that the Buccaneers have absolutely no homefield advantage, that’s where I got a pick ’em from.

This spread is currently available at +3 -120 on BetUS, and I love the idea of getting three points of value with an elite quarterback looking to rebound from his worst performance of the season. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, could be looking ahead to the Dallas game, and at the very least, they’re definitely reading their own press clippings a bit too much. This is the first time they’re favored since Week 3! As someone who wagered on the Buccaneers over 6.5 wins prior to this season, I really don’t like them in the role as a favorite, as Winston and his teammates have proven that they can be quite aloof and overconfident when expected to prevail.

I’m betting this for four units as long as I can get some sort of +3 line. I’m holding out hope for better juice than -120, however.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: You can still get +3 -120 at BetUS and +3 -125 at Bovada. Like I said though, I’m holding out hope that the sharp money on the Saints moves this spread favorably.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ugh, so much for getting +3 -115 or -110. The line is +1.5 now. The sharps pounded the Saints off +3 and +2.5. I’m dropping this to three units as a result, as I really wanted +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We never got +3. Bovada is listing +3 -130, which is a bit too rich for my blood. I still like the Saints a good deal at +2, but I’m disappointed that we didn’t get a full field goal.

SportsLine’s Micah Roberts is 22-6 in college football Over-Under picks this season (+1534 profit). He’s also won his last 5 NFL Over-Under picks. You can get all of his plays by visiting SportsLine.com.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.
A good lean on the host.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 63% (21,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Saints have won 8 of the last 9 meetings.

Road Team is 73-42 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Drew Brees is 39-24 ATS after a loss with the Saints (13-5 ATS as an underdog).

Sean Payton is 9-3 ATS as an underdog after losing as a favorite.

Buccaneers are 18-41 ATS at home in the previous 59 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -2.5.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Light rain, 80 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Saints 26, Buccaneers 23
Saints +2 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 51 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Buccaneers 16, Saints 11

Seattle Seahawks (8-3-1) at Green Bay Packers (6-6)
Line: Seahawks by 3. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -2.
Sunday, Dec 11, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 9! Season 8 saw Emmitt going to North Korea to stop Kim Jong-un from destroying the world. It featured a mind-blowing twist at the very end that you absolutely need to check out if you haven’t already.

Season 9 will deal with election stuff, and it begins with something strange happening to Emmitt while he’s stuck in traffic at a protest rally. In the 13th chapter, what’s the connection between Hillary Clinton and Matt Millen, and why do they want to destroy Emmitt?

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Much is being made of Earl Thomas’ season-ending injury, and rightfully so. Thomas is one of the top safeties in the NFL, and he will be missed. However, the Seahawks have a quality reserve in Steven Terrell, who should be able to hold down the fort. Terrell obviously isn’t the play-maker Thomas is, but I don’t think he’ll be a liability either.

Besides, everyone else on the Seahawks is healthy, and that includes Michael Bennett, who returned to action Sunday night. Bennett played about half the snaps, but was extremely effective when he was on the field. He’s going to make life very difficult for Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay’s franchise quarterback is protected well, but the Seahawks have a stellar pass rush, and Rodgers hasn’t quite been himself since the fourth quarter of the Monday night game against Philadelphia anyway. Rodgers is dealing with a bum hamstring, which is limiting his mobility. He had a nice scramble against the Texans, but limped around immediately afterward and continued to do so for the rest of the afternoon.

The Packers have no sort of running game, so Rodgers will have to throw it countless times in this game, which could spell trouble. Even without Thomas, the Seahawks are prolific against the pass, so while Rodgers will undoubtedly will engineer some scoring drives, he won’t score on nearly every possession, which is something he might have to do, considering the status of his defense…

SEATTLE OFFENSE: It’s no secret that the Packers are struggling on this side of the ball. Their cornerback and linebacking corps happen to be in shambles. This is not going to bode well in this game, as Russell Wilson is absolutely on fire. Finally completely healthy, Wilson will torch Green Bay’s anemic secondary. The Packers couldn’t stop Kirk Cousins a few weeks ago. They’ve battled Carson Wentz and Brock Osweiler since, so that’s why it appears as though they’ve been better defensively. Wilson will remind everyone of how bad they were in that Sunday night affair in Washington.

I also like Thomas Rawls’ chances of having another good game. The Packers have been solid versus the rush on paper, but the last time they battled a strong ground attack was their Week 10 blowout loss at Tennessee. Derrick Henry had a big performance, and Rawls, who finally has his explosion back, will have some nice gains.

The Packers must slow down Wilson to have a chance, and Seattle’s offensive line could certainly accommodate the Packers in that fashion. However, the Seahawks’ blocking isn’t horrible if center Justin Britt is in the lineup. Britt, Seattle’s top blocker by a wide margin, wasn’t on the field at Tampa two weeks ago, and we saw what happened. He was back in action Sunday night, and the difference was very evident. Also, it’s worth noting that the Packers have struggled against mobile quarterbacks over the years, so they may not have an answer for Wilson’s scrambling ability.

RECAP: The idea of getting Rodgers as a home underdog sounds extremely enticing. But not in this instance. The Seahawks are the best team in the NFL and deserve to be favored in Green Bay. The Packers have climbed back to 6-6 with victories over the Eagles and Texans, but this is a big step up in class. As long as Seattle isn’t worried about playing in four days, it should be able to win this game. There’s no line value here, unfortunately.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is another game I just don’t really have a strong opinion on. I think the most likely result is Seattle winning by exactly three, which would obviously push most spreads, but not the -2.5 -115 available at 5Dimes, which is the best line I see for people betting in America.

SATURDAY NOTES: Still no change from me. The Packers seem like a shrappy play since they’re a home underdog, but I think this line is close to where it should be.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Considering the weather in Lambeau, Seattle’s passing attack may not be as successful. I still like the Seahawks, but it’s more of a 51-49 type of thing. It’s close. If this line were +3.5, I’d be on the Packers.

The Psychology. Edge: Packers.

The Seahawks have to play in four days against a divisional rival.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.
I’m surprised there’s not more money on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 61% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Seahawks are 32-42 ATS on the road since 2006 if they’re not coming off an away loss.

Seahawks are 8-14 ATS on the road vs. teams that average 24+ ppg since 2007.

Packers are 27-16 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Packers are 31-20 ATS at home since 2010.

Aaron Rodgers is 74-47 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 15-12 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 3-1 ATS as a home underdog.

Opening Line: Seahawks -3.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Light snow, 30 degrees. Light wind.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Seahawks 28, Packers 24
Seahawks -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 38, Seahawks 10

Atlanta Falcons (7-5) at Los Angeles Rams (4-8)
Line: Falcons by 6. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Falcons -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Falcons -3.
Sunday, Dec 11, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Falcons.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Brain-Dead Saturday, Part 2: The Rocky Horror Picture Show.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons have a couple of injury concerns on this side of the ball. First, Julio Jones will play, but he’s dealing with a case of turf toe. He was hobbling around at the end of the Kansas City game, so even though he’s expected to suit up, he may not be 100 percent. Second, Jake Matthews was knocked out of Sunday’s contest with a knee issue. His status is shakier, and it’s quite possible that he could miss this game as a result.

Matthews being out or physically limited could be catastrophic against the Rams. Atlanta already has an abysmal matchup with Chris Chester attempting to block Aaron Donald. Now, it’ll have to deal with Robert Quinn going up against a hampered or absent Matthews. Atlanta’s backup left tackle couldn’t block whatsoever, so Matt Ryan could be under constant duress while trying to throw the ball to his injured receiver.

I don’t expect the Falcons to run the ball successfully against Los Angeles’ stout front either. However, there will certainly be great opportunities for Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman as pass-catchers out of the backfield, as well as Taylor Gabriel on trick plays. The Rams have great talent on defense, but they’re undisciplined because Gregg Williams would rather injure people than win football games.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: I can’t remember who wrote it on Twitter, but someone said, “It took Jeff Fisher five years and a trade up in the draft, but he has finally put together the worst offense in NFL history.” I couldn’t have said it better myself, though if I were a certain someone at Bleacher Report, I’d probably attribute that quote to myself. At any rate, Jared Goff sucks; the offensive line can’t block; the receivers can’t catch; and there’s no running room for Todd Gurley. Other than that, the Rams’ offense is quite prolific!

In all seriousness, the conditions are perfect for Goff to have a decent game. Remember, he threw three touchdowns in the first half against the Saints before his left tackle went down. He’ll be at home, and the weather is supposed to be perfect, unlike his previous start in Los Angeles. He also won’t be going up against a tough defense. Atlanta’s stop unit can’t really stop anyone right now, as the noodle-armed Alex Smith and the Kansas City offense averaged more than eight yards per play versus the Falcons. To put that into context, the average YPP output for a team on a given Sunday is about 5.5. The Chiefs were 2.5 yards per play better than that versus Atlanta!

Goff is projected to have a decent performance, and Todd Gurley could have one as well, but I wouldn’t be too confident in that because the Los Angeles receivers could drop countless passes again. That’s what happened versus the Patriots, and Kenny Britt doesn’t exactly have the greatest track record of putting forth a strong effort in meaningless games.

RECAP: The Rams have absolutely murdered me recently, but I guess I’m a glutton for punishment because I’m betting on them once again.

I just can’t get over how bad this line is. In what universe do the Falcons, with two key injured offensive players, deserve to be favored by six on the road against a team with one of the top defenses in the NFL? My line for this was Falcons -3. This spread is three points off!

I’ve been complaining about tight lines all week, but this is definitely not one. Matvei said it best: “The books are tired of losing to the public with the Rams, so they’re going to lose to Billy Walters instead.” I’ll be shocked if Walters and other sharp bettors don’t hit up the Rams at this number.

Unfortunately, I’m reluctant to bet heavily on this game. The Rams have been costing me too much money, and there could be a quit factor involved. Even if they completely show up, I could see them winning by something like 20-16 late in the third quarter and ultimately losing 30-20 via some late Atlanta touchdowns. Nevertheless, I’m putting two units on Goff again. FML.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Bovada is offering Rams +6.5, which looks very enticing until I remember how much of a train wreck their offense is. By the way, Julio Jones, Jake Matthews and Mohamed Sanu all missed practice Wednesday.

SATURDAY NOTES: As I’m typing this now, the sharps have hit the Rams at +6, prompting the line to fall to +5.5 in most books. It’s still +6 at Bovada, so I’ll lock this in for two units. The Falcons won’t have Julio Jones tomorrow, and Mohamed Sanu is out as well.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharpest book on the Web has this listed at -5.5. Most other books have increased this back to -6. The fact that Pinnacle is still listing -5.5 is encouraging for Rams backers. Then again, we’re talking about betting Jeff Fisher and Jared Goff, so, blegh.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Free money! Bet the Falcons!

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 79% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Dan Quinn is 1-5 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Jeff Fisher is 55-41 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Opening Line: Falcons -5.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Falcons 23, Rams 20
Rams +6 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Falcons 42, Rams 14

Dallas Cowboys (11-1) at New York Giants (8-4)
Line: Cowboys by 3.5. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -2.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cowboys -3.
Sunday, Dec 11, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

Trolling will continue. I can’t attack the NFL.com or ESPN boards because the fascist scum working at Facebook prevented me from making posts that others besides my friends can see. They’ve also been penalizing the other trolls. However, I have been hitting up the team pages on Facebook.

The Seahawks lost last week, so Mario had to make a frustrated post on his Facebook page:

I never thought I would get a response like that by making a general post on Facebook, so I got a kick out of that. Here’s a post made on the Buccaneer Facebook page:

Thank you, Brandon Stephens, for reinforcing that Mario is, in fact, a real, illiterate human being.

Being a real, illiterate human being, Mario had to vent his frustration on the Seattle Facebook page:

That’s right, Farren St. George! Mario runs a Best Buy, so make sure you do your Christmas shopping there!

Oh, and I forgot to post this last week. A bit of trolling Mario did prior to the Tampa game:

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I’ve noticed a sharp decrease in Giants fans on the comment boards this week, as they are no longer yelling at me for calling their team overrated. New York barely squeaked by a slew of terrible or sub-par opponents during its winning streak, but it finally battled a worthy opponent last week and was predictably dominated.

The Giants have lots of problems. On offense, they can’t pass protect, and they have no running game. They are especially weak at tackle, and I expect DeMarcus Lawrence, who is finally rounding his way into shape, to have a dominant performance. The Cowboys will be able to focus putting pressure on Eli Manning, as they won’t have to worry about Rashad Jennings or Paul Perkins doing much coming out of the backfield.

I wouldn’t expect the Giants to be completely shut out, or anything like that, however. The Cowboys have problems in their secondary and couldn’t completely stop Sam Bradford from moving the chains, especially on the final drive in which the Vikings scored a touchdown to cover the spread. I have to believe that Odell Beckham Jr. will produce some long gains amid typical stalled New York drives.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Giants’ primary issue on this side of the ball is the linebacking corps, which is absolutely anemic. Tight ends have murdered New York all season. Jason Witten finally failed to catch a pass in a game for the first time in 85 years last week, so I expect him to rebound with a strong performance against the middle of New York’s defense.

I also expect the Cowboys’ other play-makers to perform on a high level. Ezekiel Elliott will be his usual, dominant self. He just saw Le’Veon Bell rip through the Giants’ front for 118 yards on 29 carries, and I have to believe that Elliott will post similar numbers.

Dak Prescott, meanwhile, will continue to manage the game and make big plays when needed. The Giants rush the passer very well, but Prescott is shielded by one of the top offensive lines in the NFL. There’s one liability at right tackle, as Doug Free has regressed, but Jason Pierre-Paul won’t be around to take advantage of that, as he’s expected to miss this game because of a groin injury. If the Cowboys win this divisional battle, they can certainly point to Pierre-Paul’s absence as a major reason why.

RECAP: The Cowboys are 11-1, but they’ll certainly have motivation to win this game. Their only loss this season was to New York, and the Giants have been talking trash about it. With that in mind, I expect Dallas to prevail.

I don’t have a strong opinion on this game as far as the spread is concerned, however. I made this line -3, and that’s exactly what it is. I was close to posting a -3.5 spread though, so I’ll take the Cowboys, but I think there’s a very strong possibility that Dallas wins this game by exactly three.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As with Seahawks-Packers, there’s a very good chance that this game pushes. I almost certainly won’t be betting it.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread has moved past -3 and has now been flip-flopping between +3.5 and +4. I’m still on the Cowboys, but I like this even less than I did before. I actually would’ve considered the Giants at +4 if Justin Pugh were playing, but he’s out again.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t like this number at all. I made this line Cowboys -3 before I knew Jason Pierre-Paul would be out, so -3.5 makes sense to me. I could see Dallas winning anywhere between three and six points. I’m going to stay on the Cowboys, but I could see the Giants covering. If you like New York, Bovada is offering +4.5 -115. That’s not enough to make me take the Giants, however.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 56% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Cowboys have won 6 of the last 9 meetings.

The underdog is 68-39 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Cowboys are 11-22 ATS when favored after a win since 2010.

Eli Manning is 37-29 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Cowboys 24, Giants 20
Cowboys -3.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Giants 10, Cowboys 7

Baltimore Ravens (7-5) at New England Patriots (10-2)
Line: Patriots by 7. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -10.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -5.5.
Monday, Dec 12, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have some bald dude and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and aloof people like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the great city of New England! Tonight, the New England Patriots take on the Baltimore Colts. Guys, the breaking news here is that Patriots tight end Jeremy Gronkowski is out for the year with a broken back. Guys, I hate to say I told you so. When I first learned that Gronkowski was spending time on boats, I told you he’d get hurt. Mother says I can’t go on a boat because the motion sickness will give me AIDS. Besides, there might be evil clown pirates who kidnap me and violate her precious poo-pee.

Emmitt: Heath, I am afraid to go on boat too also as well. This because if the boat have a hole in it, he gonna sink to the bottom of the lake. And then who gonna save Emmitt? If there are no mermaid alive in the lake, Emmitt gonna drown. Arius the mermaid in the bottom of the lake, but there a lot of lake in the ocean and she may not be in that specific lake. What if Emmitt in the wrong lake?

Herm: HOW CAN THERE BE A LAKE IN THE OCEAN!? HOW CAN YOU SAY THERE’S A LAKE IN THE OCEAN!? HOW CAN YOU IMPLY THERE’S A LAKE IN THE OCEAN!? A LAKE IS A BODY OF WATER! AN OCEAN IS A GREATER BODY OF WATER! THERE’S AN OCEAN! AND THEN THERE’S A LAKE! LAKE’S SURROUNDED BY LAND! NOT SURROUNDED BY OCEAN! IF A LAKE COULD BE SURROUNDED BY OCEAN, YOU COULD BE RIGHT! YOU COULD BE CORRECT! YOU COULD BE PROVEN TRUE! YOU COULD BE GIVING ACCURATE STATEMENTS! MAYBE YOU’RE GIVING ACCURATE STATEMENTS! MAYBE YOU’RE TELLING THE TRUTH! MAYBE YOU’RE TELLING FACTS! HERM DOESN’T REALLY KNOW BECAUSE HERM FORGOT WHAT YOU’RE TALKING ABOUT! HERM DOESN’T KNOW WHAT YOU’RE TALKING ABOUT! HERM DOESN’T KNOW WHAT HE’S TALKING ABOUT! HERM ALREADY FORGOT! HERM’S ALREADY FORGETTING! FORGET… uhh… umm..

Tollefson: Emmitt, why are you talking about mermaids? I thought they were fictional. Now, I’m going to have to dedicate my life to finding them so I can drug them, bring them back to my apartment and have them cook and clean naked for me. And if they disobey, I’ll steal their father’s trident and sell it on the black market, where I’m sure to get 50,000 gil for it!

Millen: Tolly, don’t be foolish. The only things at the bottoms of lakes happen to be mermen. I know this because on the first day of spring each year, I grab a snorkel and take a dip in a lake. I bring anywhere between 125-150 kielbasas with me, and I meet up with the mermen, and then I insert the kielbasas into their backsides.

Wolfley: MERMEN DON’T HAVE BACKSIDES. MY BEST FRIEND IS A MERMAN AND HE POOPS OUT OF HIS LEFT ARM, WHICH LOOKS LIKE COLIN KAEPERNICK’S AFRO.

Millen: Wrong, Wolfley. The poop may come out of their left arm, but if you tickle their eyebrows, a curvature opens up where their backside will be, and then you can insert as many kielbasas you like up their backsides.

Wolfley: OH OK, MY BAD.

Fouts: And here’s what he means by left arm. Humans usually have two arms. That’s two arms, which is one fewer than three arms, two fewer than four arms, and eight fewer than 10 arms. It’s also half an arm greater than one-and-a-half arms. Arms are positioned to the left and right. The one on your left is your left arm, and the one on the right is your right arm, unless someone has surgery to switch the two arms. Tom Cruise had this procedure last year, and now, Tom Cruise’s right arm is on the left, and his left arm is on the right. Tom Cruise also now has a middle arm that happens to be in the middle.

Reilly: You liar! Tom Cruise didn’t have that procedure. I know this because mother loves Tom Cruise, and she always says I should be like Tom Cruise.

Charles Davis’ Voice: Hey Kevin, let’s discuss different actors. Let’s start with Brad Pitt, Kevin. What about Kevin Bacon, Kevin? He’s not made out of real bacon, Kevin, so don’t get too excited, Kevin! Let’s go with Bruce Willis, Kevin. How about Tom Hanks, Kevin? What about Mel Gibson, Kevin? Let’s see how you do, Kevin. Can you name one actor, Kevin? If so, I’ll give you 500 bonus points, Kevin. I’m keeping track, and you’re eighth in bonus points, Kevin. You can move to sixth with this, Kevin. Name one actor, Kevin. Oh, you guessed Osama bin Laden, Kevin? Sorry, Kevin. He was a terrorist, Kevin. Your time is up, Kevin!

Reilly: I WAS JUST TALKING ABOUT TOM CRUISE, A**HOLE! F*** YOU, CHARLES DAVIS’ VOICE! I’LL FIND OUT WHERE YOU’RE COMING FROM AND THEN I’LL THROW YOU INTO A LAKE WITHOUT ANY MERMAIDS IN IT SO YOU’LL DROWN! We’ll be back after this!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: It’s pretty obvious to say that the Patriots aren’t the same without Rob Gronkowski. It’s true, however, and the evidence is right on tape, as they struggled to score against the Jets and then couldn’t put away the Rams until late in the game. The fact that Tom Brady couldn’t throw all over a New York defense that surrendered 41 points to the Colts on Monday night really spoke volumes.

The Ravens, now that they are healthy, have a much better defense than the Jets. Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil are finally performing on a high level, and they, along with Timmy Jernigan, are going to put tons of pressure on Brady. The future Hall of Fame quarterback struggles when teams can rattle him without blitzing, and I have to believe the Ravens will be able to do this. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s secondary should be able to take care of Brady’s receivers, including Julian Edelman; the quick slot receiver will be going up against Tavon Young, who has been an excellent nickel despite being a mere rookie.

The Patriots were able to get some big runs from LeGarrette Blount against the Rams, including a fourth-and-1 conversion that he took the distance. Don’t expect that to happen versus the Ravens, who have been stout versus the rush.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Patriots don’t usually have a quality pass rush. They were able to get to Jared Goff last week, but did so by confusing the young quarterback via delayed blitzes. Goff had no idea what was going on as a result, and it didn’t help his cause that his receivers were dropping passes all afternoon. Joe Flacco, on the other hand, has an extensive history of going up against the Patriots, so he’ll know what’s coming.

I expect Flacco to have a strong performance. He always is at his best when battling the Patriots, and his offensive line is healthy enough to keep him shielded against New England’s lackluster pass rush. He’ll have enough time in the pocket to find his array of weapons for considerable gains.

One area in which the Ravens won’t excel is running the ball, as the Patriots will continue to stop the rush well now that it’s been ruled that Alan Branch won’t be suspended. However, I expect Kenneth Dixon to be featured successfully as a pass-catcher leaking out of the backfield.

RECAP: This is my top pick of the week. I absolutely love the Ravens, and I’m going to be wagering five units on them.

This spread opened up at +8, and even though it’s been bet down to +7 by the sharps, it’s still too high. This line should be something like +5 or +5.5 at the very most. In fact, that might even be inflated. Still, even at +5.5, we’re going through two key numbers (+6 and +7), which is a huge deal.

Why do I think this spread is too high, you ask? Well, for one, the Patriots aren’t as good as people think they are. If you disagree, please tell me one impressive thing New England has done since Brady returned from suspension. Please, I’m waiting. Can’t think of anything? Well, it’s no wonder why. Let’s look at some of their recent games. They barely covered against the Rams and struggled to put away a team led by Jared Goff. Before that, they were trailing in the fourth quarter to the Jets. Before that, they led 13-10 in the third quarter versus the 49ers before pulling away. Before that, they lost at home to the Seahawks, who didn’t even have Michael Bennett on the field. They did manage to beat the Steelers and Bills in Weeks 7 and 8, but Pittsburgh and Buffalo were missing Ben Roethlisberger and LeSean McCoy, respectively.

The Patriots aren’t very good defensively, and now their offense has taken a hit in the wake of Gronkowski’s injury. They don’t deserve to be touchdown favorites over a Baltimore team that’s playing much better lately. The reason for this is because the Ravens are finally completely healthy. They endured countless injuries earlier in the season, but everyone is back now. It’s no wonder that they clobbered the Dolphins and beat the Bengals, who just trashed Philadelphia.

The Ravens typically play close games, and I don’t see why this wouldn’t be another one. As long as this spread is seven or more, I like them for five units. I’m holding out hope that the spread will rise back up to +7.5. Alas, the sharps have made sure that number has completely disappeared.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We still have time for this to move back up to +7.5, but I don’t see that happening. The public is split, while the sharps are pounding the Ravens. In fact, I’m clos to locking this in at +7 -105 (CRIS, BetUS). I’ll keep you updated, and if I lock it in, I’ll post it here and announce it on Facebook and Twitter (@walterfootball.)

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread is dropping, as Pinnacle moved to +6.5, and then CRIS, and now Westgate. There are +7 -120 lines still available at BetUS and Bovada, so I’ll lock this in before this lines falls any further. The sharps are betting the hell out of the Ravens, so I don’t anticipate this spread rising again.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve made some horrible decisions locking picks in this week, as I was screwed twice with late injuries. This was a good choice, though I should’ve done so earlier at +7 -110. This spread has dropped to -6.5 in most books. It’s -6 at Pinnacle, meaning the sharpest book on the Web wants action on New England. The Patriots can still be bet at +7 -125 at Bovada. The Ravens are still my favorite side this week. They play close games with their tough defense, while New England hasn’t been perfoming well lately. This figures to be a close game, and the sharps agree, as they’ve been pounding Baltimore all week.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New England: 51% (44,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Patriots are 32-16 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.

Tom Brady is 194-65 as a starter (147-107 ATS).

Tom Brady is 28-31 ATS as a home favorite of -9 or more (17-24 ATS since November 2007).

Opening Line: Patriots -8.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Patriots 23, Ravens 20
Ravens +7 -120 (5 Units) — Push; $0
Under 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 30, Ravens 23

Week 14 NFL Picks – Early Games
Oakland at Kansas City, San Diego at Carolina, Minnesota at Jacksonville, Cincinnati at Cleveland, Chicago at Detroit, Washington at Philadelphia, Houston at Indianapolis, Denver at Tennessee, Pittsburgh at Buffalo, New Orleans at Tampa Bay, Arizona at Miami

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Dolphins +8, Saints +7.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200

Moneyline: Texans +240 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$120

Moneyline: Bills +130 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline: Dolphins +110 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$55

Moneyline: Rams +200 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline: Ravens +230 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
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2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
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2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
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2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
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2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
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2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
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2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
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2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)