NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2016

NFL Picks (Preseason 2016): 12-7-1 (+$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2016): 13-3 (+$1,735) full review
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2016): 9-7 (-$430) full review
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2016): 7-7-2 (+$880) full review
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2016): 7-8 (-$70) full review
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2016): 6-7-1 (+$115) full review
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2016): 7-7-1 (+$515) full review
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2016): 11-4 (+$1,560) full review
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2016): 8-4-1 (-$60) full review
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2016): 5-6-2 (-$1,170) full review
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2016): 9-4-1 (+$80) full review
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2016): 7-7 (+$225) full review
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2016): 5-10-1 (-$1,090)

NFL Picks (2016): 106-81-9 (+$3,580)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 5, 6:45 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 13 NFL Picks – Late Games

Dallas Cowboys (10-1) at Minnesota Vikings (6-5)
Line: Cowboys by 3. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -2.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cowboys -2.
Thursday, Dec 1, 8:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

WEEK 12 RECAP: I just had the worst Sunday of the season. I finished an atrocious 5-10-1 (-$1,090), which I’m completely embarrassed to look at. Week 12 was horrifying, as Matvei described it as the Murphy’s Law week of football; every s***ty thing that could’ve gone wrong, did go wrong.

Two things…

1. I should’ve expected this. I wrote in my Week 12 NFL Picks that two of my top three selections – Colts +2.5/+3 and Bears +2.5 – were wiped out because Andrew Luck and Jay Cutler were injured. Thus, I had just one pick I really liked, Rams +8, and that turned out to be a loser. That game was mystifying, as I don’t understand how one of the best defenses in football can allow 49 points. I think we’re going to find out at some point in the future that because of Gregg Williams’ former relation to the Saints, that New Orleans somehow knew all of his defensive calls. Something weird happened in that game. There’s no way in hell the Saints are 28 points better than the Rams. Not even close.

Because I was unable to bet on the Colts and Bears, I forced other picks. I bumped up the Cardinals, Bengals and Texans because I needed five selections for the Supercontest, so I talked myself into games I really didn’t like all that much in the first place. I’m not going to do that anymore, though it brings me to my other point…

2. I don’t know what the hell happened, but Vegas has been posting extremely tight lines the past four or five weeks. That’s why I haven’t had a November NFL Pick of the Month. I haven’t loved anything. These lines are as tight as a vice for some reason, which just seems extremely stupid to me. The books have taken a beating from the public lately, and it’s no wonder why.

What do I mean by tight lines? Let’s take Bills at Raiders for example. The public is pounding Oakland, yet this spread is just -3. What the hell is up with that? How is a 9-2 team just a three-point favorite at home against a 6-5 foe? If this line were -5.5, or even -6, the books would still be taking lots of public money on the Raiders. Why post such a low spread? The books are just risking something fluky happening, which will probably mean another losing weekend for them.

Another example is Steelers -5.5 over the Giants. The public loves New York right now, and it’s such a no-brainer to bet +5.5. Why is a 6-5 team laying 5.5 over an 8-3 opponent? It makes no sense. I’m not saying the line is wrong. In fact, I made it Steelers -6. But the sportsbooks have been very stingy toward sharp sides and have been catering to the public like crazy, and yet the public keeps destroying them every week.

I miss the days when I could bet the Saints +3 at home versus the Seahawks, and the Chargers +6 at the Falcons, and the Vikings +7 at the Panthers. What the hell happened? I’d really like to know.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys’ offensive unit was excellent on Thanksgiving, scoring on nearly possession. Actually, the only times they didn’t reach the end zone or kick a field goal was when the officials missed egregious pass-interference calls on the Washington defensive backs. The Minnesota secondary, unfortunately, could have to get away with missed penalties of their own, depending on the status of many players.

The injury report is pretty depressing for the Vikings. In just the back seven alone, Harrison Smith, Captain Munnerlyn and Eric Kendricks all missed practice Monday. Terence Newman managed to practice, but not having Smith, Munnerlyn and Kendricks will be devastating against such a high-powered offense. Perhaps they’ll be able to practice Tuesday or Wednesday and get the green light, but it’s not looking good right now for Minnesota, though I do have to believe that Xavier Rhodes will limit Dez Bryant.

The Vikings have been at their worst trying to stop the run. This is because of another injury, as Sharrif Floyd has been out since the season opener. Floyd was initially expected to miss just 5-6 weeks, but he’s taken his good old time returning to action. Ezekiel Elliott will be very difficult for the Vikings to stop as a consequence, and that’ll set up many favorable passing downs for Dak Prescott, who will be shielded well from the Minnesota pass rush.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Sam Bradford was a depressing checkdown machine on Thanksgiving, and many are wondering how in the world the Vikings will be able to keep up with the Cowboys if Minnesota utilizes that sort of attack. Well, things will definitely be different this Thursday, and that’s because Stefon Diggs is slated to return.

Having Diggs on the field will make a huge difference. It’s understandable that Bradford would transform into his normal Captain Checkdown self to Five-Star General Checkdown against the Lions, considering he had nothing to work with downfield. Bradford has told the media that he plans to take more shots at Dallas’ sketchy secondary in this game, and I have to believe that Bradford’s sudden confidence has to coincide with Diggs’ expected return.

Unfortunately for the Vikings, they’re also dealing with a major injury on this side of the ball as well. Center Joe Berger went down in the second half of the Thanksgiving game. This was a huge deal, as Berger happened to be Minnesota’s best blocker. The Vikings couldn’t move the ball at all after he left the contest. If Berger can’t suit up, it’ll be difficult for the Vikings to block Dallas’ pass rush, despite it being quite pedestrian.

RECAP: I have to say that I’m extremely disappointed in these new Minnesota injuries. I liked the Vikings a lot before I saw the injury report. I thought this spread was on the wrong side of three – it’s +4 at Bovada! – as a line of +3.5 would translate to about +8.5 or +9 at Dallas, which seemed too high considering that the Ravens were +7.5 and should’ve covered that number. Plus, the Vikings were banged up on Thanksgiving and would be better with some players returning. The Cowboys, meanwhile, really have nothing to play for. They’re way ahead of everyone in the NFC; they’re coming off a big win on Thanksgiving; and they battle the Giants next week in a game they’re already talking about. They’re definitely going to overlook the Vikings, who are absolutely desperate for a victory.

I planned on making this a four-unit selection. Alas, the Vikings are way too banged up. I still think this line is a bit too high considering all of the circumstances – Jerry Jones has already begun suggesting that Elliott’s workload will be lighter – so I’ll set this at two units and adjust prior to Thursday evening based on who’s cleared to play. If Harrison Smith, Kendricks and Berger all suit up, this will be back to four units. If everyone is out, however, I may continue to drop this wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I wrote that I was waiting on the Minnesota injuries to determine the magnitude of this pick. Little did I know that I’d have to be factoring in a coach’s injury. Mike Zimmer had to undergo eye surgery today and will miss this game as a result. I think that could really discombobulate the Vikings, who won’t have their starting center either. Some of their key defenders will be on the field, but I can’t pick a team that won’t have its head coach so suddenly. I’m going to switch this pick to the Cowboys as a result. I won’t be betting it.

FINAL THOUGHTS: How do you handicap something like this? With Mike Zimmer out, one of two things could happen. The team could rally and play at 110 percent in an attempt to win one for their head coach. On the other hand, they could be too discombobulated without Zimmer. I don’t know how this game will pan out, and I’m not going to look at past examples of head coaches missing games because every instance could be different. Plus, there’s probably not much of a sample size anyway. I think the most likely result is Dallas winning by a field goal, meaning this will be a push. Vikings +4 still looks appealing to me, and after hearing about Zimmer telling his team that he’s sorry about letting them down, I’m going to change my pick back. Sorry for flip-flopping so much, but this is a very unusual situation. I’m not betting it though, so good luck if you are.

The Psychology. Edge: Vikings.

The Cowboys are way ahead of everyone in the NFC, and they are coming off a big win on Thanksgiving. After this game, they battle the Giants. The Vikings, meanwhile, almost need to win this game.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

Tons of action on the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 77% (96,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Cowboys are 11-21 ATS when favored after a win since 2010.

The underdog is 67-39 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Mike Zimmer is 30-14 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Cowboys 24, Vikings 21
Vikings +4 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cowboys 17, Vikings 15

Denver Broncos (7-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9)
Line: Broncos by 3.5. Total: 39.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -5.
Sunday, Dec 4, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Broncos.

OVERRATED-UNDERRATED: I posted betting trends and such in this spot over the past couple of years, but I won’t be doing that as much because I’ll be moving away from trends. Instead, I’ll list some underrated observations that the media either isn’t discussing or is misinforming the public about. I think I’ll do this in conjunction with overrated and underrated teams…

Underrated NFL Teams:

Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings are once again underrated in the wake of their Thanksgiving loss. They were missing Stefon Diggs, Captain Munnerlyn and Terence Newman, plus they lost stud center Joe Berger to a concussion. Despite all this, the Vikings were winning in the fourth quarter against the Lions, and they may have prevailed had Cordarrelle Patterson not lined up incorrectly on the final offensive drive. As I said a couple of weeks ago, the Vikings will be playing better when everyone returns from injury, and it sounds like the team will have some reinforcements available in Week 13.

Los Angeles Rams: I don’t know what the hell happened in the Saints game. I think we’ll one day find out that New Orleans knew all of Los Angeles’ defensive signals, given how constantly out of position Gregg Williams’ players were. I don’t see how one of the NFL’s best defenses can surrender 49 points. At any rate, the Rams were the better team in their matchup against the Dolphins – until the final five minutes when they began self-destructing with stupid penalties. Earlier, most people may have missed the fact that the Rams were without two of their defensive studs, Robert Quinn and Michael Brockers, against the Bills and Lions. Despite this, Los Angeles and Buffalo were tied at 16 late in the game when Case Keenum lofted a horrible pick-six. The same thing occurred against the Lions. Los Angeles was the better team against the Giants, but just killed itself with dumb mistakes. After that, the Rams outgained the Panthers in terms of yards per play, 5.1-3.9, but some blunders ended up costing them.

Indianapolis Colts: I think the Colts are trending into underrated territory. Indianapolis has gotten some of its better players back from injury. This includes Mike Adams, a stellar safety, and Jack Mewhort, the team’s best offensive lineman. Also, some of the Colts’ young players have been playing better than some of the veteran scrubs they replaced, which includes speedy linebacker Edwin Jackson and cornerback Rashaan Melvin. The Colts have been pretty impressive ever since their blowout home loss to the Chiefs, upsetting the Packers and handling business at home versus the Titans. They were also competitive on Thanksgiving despite missing Andrew Luck.

New York Jets: Did you know that the Jets have outgained their opponent in yards per play in four of their previous five games? They won jut one of those four contests, beating the Ravens. In the others, they led the Patriots for most of the afternoon before self-destructing; they were beating the Dolphins before a late kickoff return; and they couldn’t get much going with Bryce Petty against the Rams.

Overrated NFL Teams:

New York Giants: The Giants might just be the worst 8-3 team of all time. I don’t understand how they keep lucking out like this. They had major problems putting the Browns away. They would’ve lost to the Bears had Chicago not seen Josh Sitton, Zach Miller and Tracy Porter all get knocked out before the halfway point of the third quarter; Chicago was winning at halftime, but then the injuries happened. The Giants trailed for most of the second half against the Bengals at home. They were outgained by a whole yard per play against the Eagles, but were able to win because of Doug Pederson stupidity. They only won in London because the Rams wrecked themselves with dumb mistakes, and they probably wouldn’t have prevailed against Baltimore had the Ravens not lost Jimmy Smith and Terrell Suggs in the second half. Prior to that, the Giants were not competitive against the Vikings or Packers. It would make more sense to me if they were 4-7 or 5-6 right now, as they can’t block or run the ball, and their linebackers suck.

Baltimore Ravens: It’s a nice thing that the public and media is going to be distracted by John Harbaugh’s brilliant abuse of a loophole at the end of the game. People might forget that the Ravens let the A.J. Green-less Bengals hang around the entire afternoon. Baltimore and Cincinnati averaged the same exact yards-per-play figure in that contest, but the difference proved to be all of the dumb mistakes the Bengals made throughout the day. Also, remember that two weeks ago, the Ravens were trailing the Browns, 7-6, at halftime, and were only able to win because Hue Jackson inexplicably inserted Josh McCown into the lineup.

Atlanta Falcons: I still can’t get over how the Falcons were bullied in the trenches by a Philadelphia team that was stomped on by the Seahawks. I also can’t get over how Bruce Arians refused to expose this liability by giving David Johnson only 13 carries. The Cardinals were outgaining the Falcons in yards per play throughout the afternoon. Even Atlanta’s victory over Tampa wasn’t overly impressive, as the Buccaneers were up, 14-13, prior to losing their starting center. Prior to that, the Falcons beat the Packers in the final minute, but that’s looking so much less impressive in the wake of Green Bay’s struggles since that game. Desmond Trufant is likely lost for the year, which is a huge injury.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I would list the Jaguars as underrated because their defense has been amazing, as it has restricted opposing scoring attacks quite well ever since that embarrassing loss to the Titans on a Thursday night. Unfortunately, I cannot, because Blake Bortles is an abomination.

Bortles, who has as many interceptions thrown off receivers’ feet this year as victories, is really holding the Jaguars back. He was actually semi-competent against the Bills until he was flagged for a delay-of-game penalty on a fourth-and-4 of the final drive of the afternoon. I don’t know how that can possibly happen. Also, Bortles’ throwing motion takes too long, and I think this will be a huge factor in this game. Bortles won’t have much time to release the ball because Ambassador Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware will be breathing down his neck, as neither Jermey Parnell nor Kelvin Beachum will be able to block them. This could lead to some strip-sacks for Denver.

The Broncos are at their weakest defensively when it comes to stopping the run. However, the Jaguars don’t have any sort of ground attack. Chris Ivory, who is just a middling back, sustained an injury last week and may not be able to play. T.J. Yeldon isn’t healthy either. Denard Robinson may have to handle some carries, which won’t do anything for Jacksonville.

DENVER OFFENSE: It’s quite possible that the Broncos’ defense could outscore its offense in this game. I don’t know if that says more about the stop unit than the scoring attack, but either way, I wouldn’t expect much from the Broncos on this side of the ball.

Trevor Siemian, quite simply, is not very good. I know he posted monster numbers against the Chiefs, but Kansas City was dominant defensively early before many of the players suffered altitude sickness in the second half and were completely gassed as a result. Jacksonville’s defense won’t fold. The secondary has been excellent, and it will be able to handle Denver’s two terrific receivers.

Like the Broncos, the Jaguars have been weaker against the run. They lost monstrous defensive tackle Roy Miller a few weeks ago and haven’t been as good against the rush since. Devontae Booker could have some success in this contest, though he hasn’t been very impressive ever since C.J. Anderson went down, so I can’t say I’m too optimistic about his chances.

RECAP: The Broncos are obviously way better than the Jaguars, and they aren’t favored by enough. I actually made this line Denver -6.5, so there happens to be some value with the road favorite.

Unfortunately, I will not be placing a bet on this game. Two reasons: First, there’s an extremely high amount of bets coming in on the Broncos. Vegas has gotten murdered the past two weeks, so I would recommend staying away from public teams this week. Second, I could see Denver dominating this game, only to lose the cover at the very end because of some Bortles back-door nonsense.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Trevor Siemian might be out, but that doesn’t bother me at all. I don’t see how that affects this game, as Blake Bortles is going to be responsible for some crucial turnovers no matter who the quarterback is. The only question is whether his late-game touchdown will take the margin to within seven, six, four or three.

SATURDAY NOTES: You beat Denver by pounding the ball right into the middle of its defense. The Jaguars won’t be able to do that with Chris Ivory hurt and T.J. Yeldon banged up. This spread has dropped enough to warrant a small wager on the Broncos, but I’m going to see if we can get -3 on Sunday morning. What Matvei calls “Jaguar truthers” think that this team has a chance, but Blake Bortles will defintiely find a way to f*** this up for Jacksonville again despite what should be another great defensive effort. It wouldn’t surprise me if Denver scores on two pick-sixes.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I saw Broncos -3 -120 briefly this morning, but this spread is now -3.5. I don’t want to lay the hook on the road with a rookie quarterback, but I’d rather take them than the horrible Blake Bortles.

SportsLine’s Micah Roberts is 22-6 in college football Over-Under picks this season (+1534 profit). He’s also won his last 5 NFL Over-Under picks. You can get all of his plays by visiting SportsLine.com.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

The public is pounding the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 78% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Jaguars are 12-6 ATS coming off a 2-game road trip the previous 18 instances.

Jaguars are 29-59 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Broncos -4.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Broncos 24, Jaguars 16
Broncos -3.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 39 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 20, Jaguars 10

Kansas City Chiefs (8-3) at Atlanta Falcons (7-4)
Line: Falcons by 6. Total: 50.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Falcons -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Falcons -2.5.
Sunday, Dec 4, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot in coming weeks. Here were the four highest-bet sides, as of Tuesday morning last week:

Steelers -3

Titans -4

Seahawks -5.5

Patriots -8

Giants -7

Ravens -4.5

Those teams went 4-2 ATS, bringing the overall record this season to 24-27-1. The books were murdered once again this week. Not only did those top picks cash, but most teasers hit as well. The Seahawks were the only major team that missed. We could end up seeing some shady stuff this week.

Here are the highest-bet teams in Week 13, as of Tuesday morning:

Broncos -5

Cowboys -3.5

Raiders -3

Patriots -13

Those four can’t be surprising. Three of them have been public teams for years now. The Raiders, meanwhile, are just -3 despite being a 9-2 team battling a 6-5 opponent. Bettors seem like they think Vegas is giving out money for free with that line.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Falcons weren’t included in last week’s betting results, but they were another public side that cashed. Of course, they may not have covered the spread if Bruce Arians came up with a sensible game plan. Atlanta has been very soft up the middle this year and happened to be missing its top cornerback, Desmond Trufant, so utilizing David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald as often as possible seemed like the smart thing to do. Alas, Johnson was given just 13 carries, while Fitzgerald was targeted on only four occasions. Arians had Carson Palmer target Jermaine Gresham 10 times. It’s no wonder the Falcons won in an easy blowout!

Andy Reid will come up with a much better strategy. He has Spencer Ware, after all, and I’m sure he’ll have his powerful back pummel the line of scrimmage. His pupil, Doug Pederson, utilized this game plan with Ryan Mathews a few weeks ago, and it worked quite well. I don’t see why this type of attack would fail for Reid.

Unless Jeremy Maclin suits up, the Chiefs won’t be able to take advantage of Trufant’s absence, and even then, it’s sketchy because Alex Smith is a pedestrian quarterback. However, I expect Travis Kelce to have a huge performance. The Falcons are extremely weak to tight ends – they had issues with Gresham, for crying out loud – so Kelce will be a big factor in moving the chains for Kansas City the entire afternoon.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons caught the poorly coached Cardinals off-guard with Taylor Gabriel screens. Gabriel had three long gains, two of which resulted in touchdowns amid shoddy tackling from Arizona. The Chiefs will have seen this, however, and I’m sure they’ll be prepared for Atlanta’s gimmick player.

That doesn’t mean the Falcons won’t be able to score, though. Julio Jones is a beast, and Marcus Peters isn’t exactly playing at full strength right now. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have some major holes elsewhere in their secondary, particularly at the other cornerback position, as Phillip Gaines was absolutely roasted by Emmanuel Sanders and then Bennie Fowler. Mohamed Sanu is not a very good player, to put it nicely, but this could be a rare occasion in which he performs well.

Like Peters, Dontari Poe is banged up. The monstrous nose tackle was barely on the field Sunday night, and if he doesn’t get healthier leading up to this contest, the Falcons will have success on the ground with Devonta Freeman.

RECAP: The Chiefs really have a terrible scheduling situation. They played a full five quarters in altitude against a physical defense Sunday night. Now, they have to fly to Atlanta before taking on the rival Raiders on Thursday night just four days later. Godspeed, Kansas City.

In a vacuum, I’d really like the Chiefs. They’re the better team, and they seem to have some nice matchup advantages on offense. Plus, this spread is too high. Kansas City is slightly better than Atlanta, and yet the line is above +3. Under normal circumstances, I’d make this Chiefs +1.5, so Kansas City would be a huge play for me.

However, the injuries and scheduling conflict is too difficult to ignore, so I’m going to refrain from betting this game heavily. I will be taking the Chiefs for a unit or so, as I still want to take advantage of this bad spread.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’d ordinarily be excited for a line move like this, as we’re getting even more value with the Chiefs. However, Kansas City is in such a terrible scheduling spot that it may not matter. I’m sticking with one unit on the Chiefs, which is going against the sharps, who are taking the Falcons.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread is getting out of control. I know that the Chiefs are in a bad spot, but they’re such big underdogs that they have a good chance to cover regardless. I like how Kansas City matches up against the Falcons, and at +6, I think this is now worth a two-unit wager. I’m going to lock that in (5Dimes), as I don’t see this moving up to +6.5 because of a potential middle.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was sharp money coming in on the Chiefs +6 Sunday morning. I was thinking about placing a third unit on Kansas City, as this spread has gotten out of control, but the pros had the same mindset, unfortunately.

The Psychology. Edge: Falcons.

The Chiefs might be exhausted following their overtime victory on Sunday night versus the arch-rival Broncos. They have to play in four days.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 57% (28,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Falcons are 5-20 ATS at home immediately following a home win the previous 25 instances.

Opening Line: Falcons -4.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: Dome.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Falcons 26, Chiefs 24
Chiefs +6 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 50 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 29, Falcons 28

Houston Texans (6-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-6)
Line: Packers by 6.5. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -6.5.
Sunday, Dec 4, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Packers.

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GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers certainly silenced the critics, at least temporarily, with a brilliant Monday night performance at Philadelphia. Rodgers looked very focused prior to kickoff, and that translated to live action, as he completed 30 of 39 passes, leading his team to a 27-13 victory.

Rodgers, however, sustained a hamstring injury at the end of the third quarter. He still threw well after getting hurt, but he didn’t move around at all. The Texans have a great edge rush with Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney, but Green Bay’s excellent tackles, David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga, should be able to handle them for the most part. With no interior heat, it’s possible that Rodgers may not need his mobility very much.

Besides, I like Rodgers’ weapons going up against Houston’s secondary. The Texans have some issues in their defensive backfield, as we just saw Tyrell Williams and Dontrelle Inman have huge performances against them. If Houston couldn’t handle Williams and Inman, how will it stop Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and the emerging Davante Adams?

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Packers still weren’t very good on this side of the ball Monday night, but they were much better than they were in recent games. I have to believe this had something to do with stud guard Brandon Brooks being hospitalized prior to kickoff, but it’s not like the Texans have a great blocking unit. They have a major hole at right tackle because of Derek Newton’s injury, and Nick Perry will be able to take advantage of that.

Green Bay’s secondary is still very problematic, but Damarious Randall’s return Monday night helped a bit. Besides, the Packers are going up against Brock Osweiler. The former Bronco signal-caller has been atrocious in most games this season. He’s had some decent moments, particularly against the Raiders in Mexico City, but he was fortunate to see some dropped interceptions in that game.

The Texans, of course, will try to keep the ball out of Osweiler’s hands and establish the run with Lamar Miller. The Packers have endured their struggles in run support as well recently, but that had to do with Jake Ryan’s absence. The solid linebacker has been out the past few weeks, and he was expected to make his return Monday night. He didn’t play, but I have to believe that his game-time decision means he’s close to being able to suit up. Having Ryan on the field will be a huge boost, and it’ll allow the Packers to limit Miller.

RECAP: We missed out on so much line value with the Packers, as they were -3.5 on the advance spread. Their Monday night victory has pushed this number up, but I actually don’t think it’s high enough yet. Green Bay, by my estimation, should be favored by 6.5. The Texans suck, despite their winning record, and it looks like the Packers are ready to go on a nice winning streak.

Unfortunately, the lost line value will keep me from wagering on this game. Going from -5.5 to -6.5 isn’t very exciting, and the Packers still have some defensive issues, so it wouldn’t be the most surprising thing in the world if they allow a back-door touchdown to Osweiler in the final minutes.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has moved up to -6.5, thanks to public money, which means all the value is gone. I still like the Packers, but for a non-bet. Also, it’s worth noting that the sharps haven’t touched this game yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps took the Texans at +6.5, as I guess they believe that they’ve obtained some value with the underdog. However, Jadeveon Clowney is out, so the Texans’ defense won’t be nearly as potent this week. I don’t like this game enough to bet either side, as we lost all the value we had on the advance line.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It’s snowing in Green Bay, which helps the Packers’ cause a bit. Unfortunately, this line moved up to -6.5, and I wouldn’t take Green Bay at that number, even with Clowney out.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

People are coming back on the Packers’ bandwagon.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 82% (24,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Texans are 42-24 ATS after two or more consecutive losses (8-6 ATS as favorites).

Packers are 26-16 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Packers are 30-20 ATS at home since 2010.

Aaron Rodgers is 73-47 ATS since 2009.

Opening Line: Packers -6.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Packers 24, Texans 17
Packers -6 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Survivor Pick (11-1)
Packers 21, Texans 13

Philadelphia Eagles (5-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-7-1)
Line: Bengals by 2. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bengals -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Eagles -2.
Sunday, Dec 4, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Eagles.

Sadly, when you make fun of idiots’ grammar/spelling mistakes, they are too stupid to realize what you’re really saying.

Here’s a moron that other readers got to before I could:

I know, I know, I’m just piling on at this point. Boy of Kale absolutely wrecked Taylor.

Here’s another instance in which the other commenters made a hater look stupid:

And another one:

I expected BCE to post here, as he tends to write stupid stuff all the time.

Meanwhile, one of my post was ruined by our own censorship…

If you’re wondering, we’re blocking out the word s-e-m-e-n, which is one of Google’s naughty words that they frown upon. That string of letters is in the word “basement,” hence the bleeped-out word.

Unfortunately, it happened again…

Well, I think these idiots get the point. I know from their IP addresses that they live in their mom’s basement, which makes them look more pathetic than they already are.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I mentioned in the previous capsule that Brandon Brooks’ hospitalization prior to kickoff Monday night was a big factor in the Eagles’ offensive struggles. They scored just six points following their initial drive, as they just didn’t have enough time to prepare for Brooks’ absence. Brooks has been Philadelphia’s best blocker in the wake of Lane Johnson’s suspension, and his replacement was a major downgrade.

The Eagles will need Brooks back for this game because he’ll be charged with blocking Geno Atkins. Cincinnati’s defense has declined this year, but don’t blame Atkins at all; he’s still a terror in the trenches. Fortunately, Brooks was discharged from the hospital early this week, so he might be able to suit up.

If Carson Wentz has Brooks blocking for him, he should be able to play well against the Bengals, who have major secondary concerns. Reggie Nelson is missed, Pacman Jones has regressed, and Dre Kirkpatrick and Shawn Williams are both banged up. The Eagles don’t have good receivers, but I like Jordan Matthews and Dorial Green-Beckham to take advantage of the Bengals’ putrid secondary. At the very least, Nelson Agholor won’t be on the field to drop more passes.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Andy Dalton was rejected so many times in the fourth quarter of the Baltimore game that it reminded me of my high school days. Alas, that’s what Dalton has transformed into without A.J. Green. When Dalton wasn’t getting passes batted down at the line of scrimmage, he was throwing up weak balls to his pedestrian receivers, who, unlike Green, couldn’t come down with possession.

The Eagles have weak cornerbacks, but the same could’ve been said of the Ravens, who were missing Jimmy Smith, and yet, Dalton couldn’t take advantage of that matchup. I don’t trust Dalton to play well in this game either. His top weapon, Tyler Eifert, will be going up against a defense that happens to be stellar against tight ends, while right tackle Cedric Ogbuehi won’t be able to block the tremendous Brandon Graham.

The Bengals will attempt to establish Jeremy Hill on the ground, but that won’t work very well. The Eagles are solid against the run, and Hill has become just a plodder anyway, though I do expect him to post some impressive receiving numbers, as he has taken over the pass-catching duties in the wake of Giovani Bernard’s injury.

RECAP: Some may look at this game and think back to when the Eagles lost outright despite being favored at the Lions and Redskins and wonder if they should be laying points on the road. To that, I’d say that both Detroit and Washington are much better than Cincinnati.

The Bengals suck. I was an idiot for betting them last week, but I’ve learned my lesson. Without Green, they’re one of the worst teams in the NFL. I’m not crazy about taking the Eagles as a road favorite, but I did make them -2 on my projected line, so I like them to cover this spread as long as this number stays below -3.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Eagles are now underdogs for some reason. I’m considering a one-unit wager on them, but let’s see where this spread goes. At the very least, I want +1.5 so I can take Philadelphia as one leg of a teaser. There’s no sharp money on this contest yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: I can’t say I understand why the Bengals are favored by two. Think about this way: If Cincinnati were at Philadelphia, this spread would be Eagles -3.5 or -4, which is what they were favored by over the Packers, who are so much better than the A.J. Green-less Bengals. I think the Eagles are worth a one-unit wager at +2.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp money on the Bengals, which I don’t understand. The Eagles are the better team and should be favored, as far as I’m concerned. If we were getting +3, this would’ve been a much bigger bet, but I’m fine with one unit.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 53% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Bengals are 18-10 ATS at home since 2013.

Bengals are 32-18 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Opening Line: Eagles -1.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Eagles 20, Bengals 16
Eagles +2 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
BEngals 32, Eagles 14

Detroit Lions (7-4) at New Orleans Saints (5-6)
Line: Saints by 6. Total: 53.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -3.
Sunday, Dec 4, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I mentioned last week that my annual Thanksgiving tradition is to have dinner at my parents’ house and then watch my dad get infuriated because one of my uncles cheers against the teams my dad bets on. This did not happen this year, however, as I didn’t have any big plays on the three games, and rightfully so because they were all coin flips.

Fortunately, I did have the pleasure of hearing my dad’s drunken Russian friend rant about football after watching it for the first time. Here were some memorable quotes:

“Vhy zey alvays run vis ball in middle of line??? Zis guy no run good!!!”

This was in reference to Le’Veon Bell getting stuffed on a couple of occasions. Apparently, Bell is not a good running back.

“Vhy zey alvays dancing??? Zey dance like monkies!!!”

If you think this is racist, then you are the true racist, as this was in reference to Pat McAfee’s silly trot following his fake punt conversion.

“Whopa! Zis good play! Vhy zey not do zis all time???”

This was said following one of Ben Roethlisberger’s deep touchdowns to Antonio Brown. It was a good question, though. Why not just bomb it to Brown every play?

2. Cris Collinsworth was drowned out by the Russian guy’s quotes. Collinsworth is one of my favorite color analysts, but he said something that annoyed me during the Panthers-Saints game a week ago. He mentioned that most of the public isn’t aware of who Willie Snead is. This sort of statement is something a lot of announcers of guilty of. See, most people actually do know who Snead is because most people watching play fantasy football. Snead is owned in 82.8 percent of ESPN leagues, so most individuals obviously know who he is.

Louis Riddick, whom I also enjoy listening to, said something along the same lines on a recent Sunday morning:

“If you don’t own Alshon Jeffery in fantasy right now, you should try to get him right now. He’s about to go off today.”

Ah, yes, let’s just trade for Jeffery an hour before the game! I’m sure the entire league will vote quickly on that one!

I feel like all NFL announcers need a crash course in fantasy football. They should be made to play a minimum of five leagues each year so that they fully understand how fantasy works. Most people who watch football are into fantasy, so having announcers say ignorant comments related to fantasy seems kind of silly.

3. On a related topic, I was thrilled to hear that the NFL is thinking about going back to the 1 p.m. Eastern start times for the London games. Thank f***ing god. I live on the East Coast, and even that was too early for me. I can’t imagine those on the West Coast who needed to wake up at 6 a.m. to set their fantasy lineup for a player who happened to be a game-time decision. What a horrible idea.

What baffles me is that some people are against this move. Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal both seemed upset about it, but I found that ridiculous, as I distinctly remember them talking about waking up late and watching just the second halves of those games. Maybe it was just one of them, but at least one of them said it. That’s nice and all, but for actual, real football fans who want to watch everything rather than schmooze with Hollywood celebrities, this 9:30 a.m. start policy was a disaster.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints really emptied their playbook against the Rams, didn’t they? They wanted to make sure they made Gregg Williams look terrible in his return to New Orleans. I don’t know why they cared so much about getting revenge on a guy who looks like he belongs in a Guess Who? board game. He did help them win their only Super Bowl, after all. The whole thing seemed petty and silly.

Now that New Orleans has gotten that out of its system, it’ll return to a real game plan. I’m sure the Saints believe they’ll be able to score at will on the Lions, who have surrendered big offensive performances this year. However, much of that happened when Darius Slay and Ezekiel Ansah were out of the lineup. Ever since they’ve returned, the Lions have surrendered 20 points or fewer in five consecutive games. Sure, they’ve played some terrible offenses, save for the Redskins, but having Slay and Ansah on the field has made a huge difference. Plus, there’s a chance that DeAndre Levy could return to action, which would be a huge boost.

Still, it’s difficult to imagine the Lions limiting the Saints. Terron Armstead made his return last week, so the Lions won’t have an edge with Ansah going up against Andrus Peat. Detroit also lacks an interior pass-rusher to take advantage of the Saints’ substandard guard play. Meanwhile, in the secondary, Slay will do well to shut down one of the receivers, but Drew Brees has three excellent ones at his disposal.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions will be charged with keeping up with the Saints on the scoreboard, and they should be able to accomplish this. Skeptics will point to Detroit’s meager 10 points against the Vikings in the fourth quarter on Thanksgiving, but Minnesota has an excellent defense, while New Orleans has trouble stopping everyone.

“Everyone” includes Jared Goff, who threw for three touchdowns in a single half of action this past Sunday. Goff stopped scoring after halftime, but that can be attributed to his left tackle, Rodger Saffold, getting knocked out with another injury. Besides, Matthew Stafford is light years better than Goff, and he has better weapons as well. Golden Tate and Marvin Jones have been silenced recently, but they’ve gone up against some difficult secondaries in the past several weeks. That won’t be the case this Sunday.

With that in mind, it’ll be imperative that the Lions’ offensive front protects Stafford. Blocking Cameron Jordan has been an issue for most teams, as Jordan has been performing on an All-Pro level this year. Rookie left tackle Taylor Decker has been exceptional, so Jordan might not be able to dominate as usual.

RECAP: I haven’t posted a November NFL Pick of the Month yet. I know this game will take place in December, but as of this writing, it’s Nov. 29. Thus, I’m allowed to make this my November NFL Pick of the Month.

I don’t understand this spread at all. I’ve made my picking process known; I look at everything before glancing at the lines Sunday night, and I make my own spreads, then I compare them to what Vegas has listed. However, I also do this for the advance spreads. For Lions at Saints, I made my personal advance spread -3. It was -3.5, so I figured that if the number stayed the same, I’d take the Lions for a unit or two.

However, this number has ballooned to -5.5 just five days later. What happened in those five days? Well, the Lions beat the Vikings, so that wasn’t a factor. It was the Saints’ 49-21 victory over the Rams that affected this line. In that contest, the Saints knew all of Gregg Williams’ schemes, and they were unexpectedly hyped up for that game. They threw the kitchen sink at their former offensive coordinator, and they made sure to embarrass him with a late score on a trick play. They emptied their playbook and shot their wad, so I don’t know if they’re going to have anything left for a surging Detroit team. Oh, and by the way, the score was 28-21 in the third quarter, but Saffold was knocked out of the game with a minute remaining before halftime. Had Saffold been around to block Jordan, the Rams may have scored another touchdown or two.

I have these teams separated by just two spots in my NFL Power Rankings. You can’t tell me that the Saints are substantially better than the Lions, but that’s what this spread is saying. New Orleans has been sloppy in many of its games this year, as it trailed 23-3 at Carolina just prior to the Rams game because of turnovers. Mistakes have been a common theme for the Saints this season, and I don’t see why that would suddenly change.

Also, it’s worth noting once again that the Saints seldom blow teams out. I know that sounds silly after their 49-28 drilling of the Rams, but that was just their third victory of more than seven points in two years, excluding games on short rest. The other teams they’ve beaten by more than a touchdown are the 49ers and Jaguars. The Lions are definitely not in that class. Additionally, check out what the Saints have done at home this year, excluding the Rams game: loss by one vs. Raiders; loss by 13 vs. Falcons; win by three vs. Panthers; win by five vs. Seahawks (Russell Wilson not 100 percent, Kam Chancellor out); loss by two vs. Broncos. And they’re supposed to beat the Lions by six or more, suddenly?

The Lions, meanwhile, don’t blow anyone out, but all of their games are close. In fact, they have an amazing 19-game streak of either winning or trailing by one score in the fourth quarter. Stafford, who has covered or pushed the previous five times he’s been an underdog of 5.5 or more, is just good enough to rally his team to a victory or a close defeat, and I’m sure he’ll be in position to score a back-door touchdown if he needs one.

Again, this is my November NFL Pick of the Month. The Lions, coming off extra rest, are getting way too many points; my line is -3, and the advance spread was -3.5. It has moved two points because of public overreaction to the victory over the Rams, so let’s take advantage of that.

UPDATE: This jumped up to +6 at 5Dimes, so I’m going to lock it in.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t understand the line movement on this game. There’s sharp money on the Lions, and yet this spread has been pushed up to -6. I still love the Lions, but I don’t understand what’s happening. I have to believe this spread is going to drop soon though.

SATURDAY NOTES: Marvin Jones and Tahir Whitehead could be out for the Lions, which is not good, but the primary injury in this contest is to left tackle Terron Armstead. New Orleans’ left tackle being out of the lineup is huge, as Ziggy Ansah has a huge edge over Andrus Peat. With that in mind, I have no idea why this spread is still -6. There’s sharp money on the Lions, and yet this line hasn’t moved down at all.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Ugh, I don’t have a good feeling about this. My previous two Picks of the Month saw sharp action moving in my team’s favor. The opposite is happening here. Pro money bet the Saints up to -7 on Saturday night, but it has since settled in at -6.5. I don’t understand why the Saints would blow out the Lions, but smart people apparently think they will, even without Terron Armstead.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.
Sharp money on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 64% (31,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Lions are 20-34 ATS against losing teams the previous 54 instances.

Saints are 36-25 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Opening Line: Saints -3.5.

Opening Total: 54.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Lions 35, Saints 34
Lions +6 (8 Units – November NFL Pick of the Month) — Correct; +$800
Over 53.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Lions 28, Saints 13

San Francisco 49ers (1-10) at Chicago Bears (2-9)
Line: 49ers by 1.5. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bears -4 (Cutler).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bears -1.5.
Sunday, Dec 4, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. Call me a curmudgeon, but a lot of people are stupid. When USC was suggested as a potential playoff team, all I saw on Twitter was, “HURR DURR YOU CANT PUT A 3-LOST TEAM ON PLAY OFF HURR DURR!” Hey, idiots, how about you actually consider what happened to this team? The Trojans have been unstoppable ever since they made the switch to Sam Darnold. Their offense has been prolific, while their defense has been dominant. They went into Washington and absolutely crushed the Huskies. It wasn’t like a fluke victory that Iowa had over Michigan, or Pittsburgh enjoyed over Clemson. That was a legitimate win, and if the two teams played 10 times, USC would beat Washinigton at least seven out of 10 occasions.

With that in mind, here’s my top four:

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. USC

I think the committee is going to give the Wisconsin-Penn State winner the fourth spot, however. I’m a Penn State alumnus, so I won’t be crying for USC, but I think the Trojans are definitely beter than either the Nittany Lions or Badgers. Washington, meanwhile, will be in with an impressive victory, but if it’s a close game, I’m not sure the Huskies make it.

2. The team USC beat this weekend was Notre Dame, which was in the news this past week. The Fighting Irish will have to vacate its wins over a 2-year span because of academic misconduct.

First of all, if this isn’t reason enough to fire Brian Kelly, I don’t know what is. Kelly is a bad coach and even worse human being. Now, he has to vacate the victories he had in the season in which he went to the national championship against Alabama, which is completely embarrassing. If Kelly still has a job in a few weeks, it’ll be clear that he has something on the athletic director or the school president, whether it’s nudes, dirty secrets or videos of them boinking three-legged goats.

Second, I don’t understand the concept of vacating wins. It’s not like people are going to forget that they won all of those games. Are historians going to look back and see that Alabama beat an unnamed opponent in the national championship? It’s dumb. And for academic misconduct, who the hell cares about academic misconduct? I don’t understand what academics have to do with college athletics. It would be like suspending an NFL player for not going to the dentist. One has absolutely nothing to do with the other. College athletes are there to prepare for the pros and make money for their schools. I don’t see why they should even have to go to class. That should be completely optional, as it is for most college students.

3. Speaking of coach firings, Charlie Strong was axed after three years at Texas. The good news for Strong is that he’ll be the recipient of a large buy-out. The bad news is that he didn’t get much of a fair chance. I know Texas lost to Kansas, which is almost unforgivable, but three years in college isn’t long enough to determine how good of a coach someone is. The players he initially recruited haven’t even had a chance to become seniors yet. Strong took over a decaying program that Mack Brown ruined, so Strong was in charge of a project that required more than three years to rebuild. I would’ve at least given him a fourth season.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: I can’t believe Matt Barkley threw for 316 yards and three touchdowns last week. I just can’t believe it. I refuse to. So, in my mind, it just never happened. OK? OK.

In all seriousness, Barkley’s stats were a byproduct of garbage time. That much is clear. The exhausted Tennessee defensive backs didn’t appear as though they knew what they were doing, as Chicago receivers were running free the entire fourth quarter. However, the wideouts dropped so many passes that it didn’t matter. The Bears could’ve been playing against air, and they wouldn’t have won because of all of their drops.

It might feel like the Bears are playing against air in this contest, as the 49ers have a putrid defense. They have no pass rush, so Barkley’s poor offensive line won’t be much of a factor. The 49ers are also horrendous against the run, so Jordan Howard could have lots of long bursts. He’ll also be a factor in the passing game, though the Bears will be hoping that he doesn’t drop lots of passes for once.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Colin Kaepernick has gotten tons of acclaim for the stats he has posted recently, but he has battled bad defenses of late (Saints, Patriots, Dolphins), and he’s still not making the right reads. Any elite defense would’ve snatched multiple pick-sixes against him by now, but he has lucked out with a very easy schedule. He has also padded his stats with gabrage-time throws.

There probably won’t be any sort of garbage time against the Bears, who are unlikely to establish a big lead. I do, however, like Kaepernick’s chances on the ground. Both of Chicago’s star inside linebackers are out, so they may have trouble containing Kaepernick’s scrambles. The Bears also figure to struggle against tight ends, so Kaepernick will have success getting the ball to Vance McDonald and Garrett Celek.

It’s a good thing that Kaepernick will be able to scramble successfully because Carlos Hyde has a difficult task ahead of him. Though the Bears have surrendered big numbers to opposing ground attacks this season, they’re going to be better in that department with Eddie Goldman back in the lineup. The monstrous nose tackle prevented DeMarco Murray from doing much last week, so he’ll treat Carlos Hyde similarly.

RECAP: The 49ers and Bears are about the same, while Chicago’s homefield advantage is worth about 1.5 points. That’s how I came up with the Bears being -1.5.

Unfortunately, the difference between -1.5 and -2.5 is pretty negligible, so there’s no real betting opportunity here. Not that I’d condone wagering on such horrible teams anyway.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is now exactly what I made it (+1.5). There’s no value here with either team, and betting on such horrible teams isn’t a good idea anyway.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread has gotten out of control. Why the hell are the 49ers favored on the road? I’m almost tempted to bet the Bears on principle, but I don’t want to have any money on Matt Barkley. I am changing this pick, however.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, I have no interest in betting either of these horrible teams, but the Bears are more appealing than the 49ers because they are home underdogs.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 58% (4,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

Bears are 7-18 ATS at home since 2013.

Opening Line: Bears -1.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Bears 20, 49ers 19
Bears +1.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bears 26, 49ers 6

Los Angeles Rams (4-7) at New England Patriots (9-2)
Line: Patriots by 14. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -14.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -10.5.
Sunday, Dec 4, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Five years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for the 2013 season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses. In 2014, Donald Sterling answered spammers.

Last year, Tom Brady and his deflated footballs were involved. You can see those Spam Mails here with my responses to avoid clutter. I’ll have brand new spam mail responses every week!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Rob Gronkowski may not play because of a back ailment, but that doesn’t matter, right? After all, the Saints scored 49 on the Rams, so why can’t Tom Brady do the same thing?

I think that’s how the public is approaching this game, as evidenced by this insane point spread and the wagering percentages attached to it. Everyone assumes the Patriots will score at will, but I’m not so sure about that. Tom Brady didn’t appear to be quite himself last week, as he labored through a balky knee. His offensive line, meanwhile, didn’t do a good job of blocking, which wasn’t exactly a surprise. If the New England front had issues against the Jets, how will it possibly deal with Aaron Donald, Michael Brockers and Robert Quinn?

The Rams were constantly out of position against the Saints, as New Orleans seemed to have some sort of inside info on Gregg Williams’ schemes, given that he coached for the Saints previously. The Rams, utterly embarrassed by last week’s blowout, will put forth a much greater effort against the banged-up Patriots, and they’ll definitely have more success as a result.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Jared Goff threw three touchdowns in the opening half of last week’s contest, but couldn’t muster anything following intermission. Much of that had to do with left tackle Rodger Saffold suffering a hand injury with one minute remaining in the second quarter. Saffold is the Rams’ best offensive lineman, and he had been playing well at left tackle after moving there from guard to displace the anemic Greg Robinson. His absence allowed Cameron Jordan to go nuts.

The Patriots, however, don’t have a Cameron Jordan. Their pass rush is simply non-existent, thanks to some foolish trades they’ve made recently. Unless the Rams suffer more injuries to their offensive line, Goff should have some success against New England’s leaky defense. If Ryan Fitzpatrick could engineer successful drives against the Patriots, why can’t Goff?

That said, I don’t expect Todd Gurley to run very well. Teams have been stacking the line of scrimmage against him anyway, but New England can stop the rush as long as Alan Branch is on the field. Branch will be suspended soon, but until he is, the Patriots will clamp down on the run well.

RECAP: Last year, the 4-7 Eagles were coming off a humiliating blowout loss (at Lions on Thanksgiving) and went into New England as big underdogs. They upset the Patriots. I think something similar could happen this year. I’m not projecting a Rams victory, or anything, but this should be a close game.

As mentioned, the Patriots have issues on offense; Brady is hurt, Gronkowski could be out or limited, and the offensive line won’t be able to block the Rams’ defensive front. The defense, meanwhile, isn’t very good, so the Rams should be able to hang around, just like the Jets did last week.

With that in mind, this spread is way too large. I made it Rams -10.5, which I thought might have been too high. I was shocked when I saw an opening line of -13. We’re at the stage of the season where the Patriots just want to get into the playoffs completely healthy, so I don’t see them blowing out the Rams.

In fact, I like Los Angeles for a four-unit wager. My rule for large spreads like this is to only take the favorite if it’s an elite team battling a horrible opponent. The Rams aren’t a bad team, as they have a solid defense, and they’ll be looking to bounce back from a humiliating loss against a completely uninterested, banged-up foe.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has dropped to +13 in some books. There’s some sharp action coming in on the Rams, but not an overwhelming amount. I still like Los Angeles, but I’m going to drop this pick to two units because it sounds like Robert Quinn might be out. Quinn is such a huge part of the Rams’ defense, and his absence will definitely hurt. I still think this spread is too high, however.

FRIDAY UPDATE: I’m going to bump this back up to three units in the wake of Rob Gronkowski being ruled out for this game. New England’s offense just isn’t the same without him, and the Rams should be able to keep up enough to cover.

SATURDAY NOTES: An update without a unit change! I’m sticking with three units on the Rams, as this spread is way too high. There has been a bit of sharp action on Los Angeles, but not too much.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Bovada is offering +14 -115, so I’ll take that. I still like the Rams for three units against the suddenly struggling Patriots.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

The public is predictably on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 66% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Jeff Fisher is 55-40 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Patriots are 31-16 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.

Tom Brady is 193-65 as a starter (146-107 ATS).

Tom Brady is 27-31 ATS as a home favorite of -9 or more (16-24 ATS since November 2007).

Opening Line: Patriots -13.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Patriots 27, Rams 16
Rams +14 -115 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$345
Under 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 26, Rams 10

Miami Dolphins (7-4) at Baltimore Ravens (6-5)
Line: Ravens by 3.5. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Ravens -3.
Sunday, Dec 4, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: If you have a brain, you’re completely aware of how stupid these safe-space college idiots who don’t want to work hard whatsoever are by now. Thus, you’ll enjoy one of these morons, who happens to be pining for free education, get absolutely abused on TV:

Two things. First, it’s come to light that this girl actually has rich parents, which makes this so much worse. And second, she actually looks like a girl I used to date nine years ago. Seriously, if I had dated this particular girl 19 years ago instead of nine, I’d actually be afraid that she was a bastard daughter of mine!

MIAMI OFFENSE: There should’ve been some great betting opportunities against the Dolphins recently. They went on their winning streak initially because their three offensive linemen were completely healthy for the first time all year against the Steelers. They were all out the past two weeks, but they had an inexplicable comeback against the Rams, and then they were battling the 49ers, who weren’t worth betting on heavily because of how horrible they are. San Francisco naturally needed a back-door score to cover by half of a point.

I was hoping the Dolphins would lose some games without Branden Albert, Laremy Tunsil and Mike Pouncey so that we could bet on them again once they returned. Alas, because of the two wins, the public has barely noticed that they were gone, which is just depressing for those of us who actually have a clue. Oh well. At any rate, Albert and Tunsil will be back in action this week. Pouncey is still out, but having two of the three best blockers on the field will be good enough, especially considering that the Ravens don’t rush the passer particularly well outside of Terrell Suggs. Albert should be able to handle Suggs fairly well, allowing Ryan Tannehill to find DeVante Parker downfield. Parker sustained an injury against the 49ers, but it sounds like he’ll be fine.

Running the ball could be an issue for the Dolphins, however. Albert, Tunsil and Pouncey helped spark Jay Ajayi, but the Ravens defend the rush extremely well. Still, the Ravens have plenty of other holes on defense for Miami’s scoring unit to exploit.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Like the Dolphins, the Ravens were missing some of their key blockers this season. Marshal Yanda was absent for three contests earlier in the year, for example. Yanda will be on the field this Sunday, however, and he’ll be instrumental in blocking Miami’s front. However, Mario Williams appears to have a big edge on rookie left tackle Ronnie Stanley, who has struggled. The Ravens will never admit it publicly, but they definitely wish they had drafted Tunsil, whom they planned on taking prior to Bong-gate.

The Dolphins will get some pressure on Joe Flacco, who will likely throw his one touchdown and then call it a day, as usual. It’s not all on Flacco though, as he just doesn’t have the horses on offense. Both Mike Wallace and Steve Smith have proven to be inconsistent, while Miami’s secondary has improved of late. Byron Maxwell hasn’t been terrible in recent games, while Tony Lippett has been performing on a fairly decent level.

I still don’t trust Miami’s run defense, so perhaps that’s how the Ravens will be able to move the chains. It’s a positive sign for Baltimore that it’s involving Kenneth Dixon more. Terrance West is not very good, so Dixon is the best running back on the roster. I’m amazed it’s taken them this long to have him out-snap West.

RECAP: Again, I was hoping to get a better number here after some Dolphin losses, but that never came to fruition. I still think this spread is half of a point too high, however. A +3.5 -120 line can be found a some books, which makes Miami appealing enough to wager two units.

I don’t think the Ravens will win this game by more than a field goal. They just don’t beat opponents by large margins, as they had trouble putting away the A.J. Green-less Bengals last week. The Dolphins are definitely better than that version of Cincinnati, and they also play better on the road, so I like them to cover. Unfortunately, the sharps have already bet this spread down, but like I said, there are still some lingering +3.5s available.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some money just came in on the Ravens as I was typing this up. I think that might be a reaction to the announcement that DeVante Parker may not play. That doesn’t bother me too much, so I still like the Dolphins as long as I can get +3.5. That number is available at Bovada for -115 juice.

SATURDAY NOTES: I said I’d still like the Dolphins if I could get them at +3.5, and that’s the case now. The line is even +3.5 -105 at Bovada, though I’m holding out for +4. The spread has moved up because of the DeVante Parker injury, but I think Miami is still the play with two of its starting offensive linemen returning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It’s been announced that DeVante Parker is playing. So much for getting +4! I’m fine with +3.5 -115, currently offered at Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Ravens play the Patriots next week, but I don’t think they’ll look past the Dolphins.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 55% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Underdog is 73-40 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 113 games.

Dolphins are 21-7 ATS as a road underdog of less than 5 since 2008.

Dolphins are 17-12 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning record since 2007.

Ravens are 23-16 ATS at home as an underdog or favorite of 1-7 points with Joe Flacco.

Opening Line: Ravens -3.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Ravens 20, Dolphins 19
Dolphins +3.5 -115 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$230
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Ravens 38, Dolphins 6

Week 13 NFL Picks – Late Games
Buffalo at Oakland, NY Giants at Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay at San Diego, Washington at Arizona, Carolina at Seattle, Indianapolis at NY Jets

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 13 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)