NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 17, 2015

NFL Picks (Preseason 2015): 7-10-1 (-$1,420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2015): 10-6 (+$940)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2015): 9-7 (-$895)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2015): 7-9 (-$870)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2015): 6-8-1 (-$360)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2015): 6-6-2 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2015): 5-8-1 (-$690)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2015): 4-9-1 (-$860)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2015): 5-8-1 (+$520)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2015): 8-5 (+$280)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2015): 6-8 (-$610)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2015): 5-6-3 (-$2,010)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2015): 6-10 (-$1,050)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2015): 8-7-1 (+$195)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2015): 11-5 (+$1,550)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2015): 7-7-2 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2015): 8-8 (+$390)

NFL Picks (2015): 118-127-9 (-$4,725)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Jan. 3, 11:55 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 17 NFL Picks – Late Games

New York Jets (10-5) at Buffalo Bills (7-8)
Line: Jets by 3. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Bills -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Jan 3, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Jets.

WEEK 16 RECAP: For the second week in a row, a Sunday that looked great after the 1 p.m. games soured a bit in the 4 p.m. hour. I lost two mid-range picks, as the Packers +6 and Jaguars +3 failed to cover. Green Bay just crapped the bed, and I’m kicking myself for that pick because I talked about how the Packers were overrated. The Jaguars selection was irresponsible; I didn’t even realize that they might be eliminated prior to kickoff. They were flat as a result.

Nevertheless, I finished 8-8, +$390, so I’m happy about that. Somewhat. It could’ve been 8-8, +$790, but I chickened out of my four-unit Bengals pick. I wanted a winning week, so I initially dropped it to two units, but all of the sharp money on the Broncos scared me. What can I say, I’m a coward.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: So much was expected from Buffalo’s defense entering the season. The team had one of the league’s best stop units last year, and with Rex Ryan on board, it was only bound to get better. However, the two Williamses – Mario and Kyle – regressed severely, while injuries plagued the rest of the roster. The Bills are missing a number of players on this side of the ball, but two key ones could be available after sitting out last week’s contest. Ronald Darby didn’t play because of a groin, while Marcell Dareus was knocked out with a shoulder. Dareus was initially listed as probable to return, but never came back to the field.

Given that this is such a big game for the Bills – more on that later – I think there’s a good chance that both will play. The Bills will need Darby, who has been excellent this year. The Jets, of course, have two prolific receivers, and it’ll hurt Buffalo if Darby isn’t around to smother one of them. The Bills don’t have much of a pass rush, so allowing Ryan Fitzpatrick to have all day to locate Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker amid poor coverage doesn’t sound like a recipe for success.

Fitzpatrick may not have to throw the ball very much, as the Jets’ running game should work pretty well. Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell figure to gash the Bills, who have surrendered 100-plus yards on the ground in five straight games.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Jets were able to manhandle the Patriots’ scoring attack for the most part last week because they dominated the trenches versus a horrible blocking unit. The strength of New York’s defense is the interior of the defensive line, as the Jets have three studs to create havoc.

Unlike the Patriots, however, the Bills have the personnel to deal with Muhammad Wilkerson and company. Richie Incognito has been one of the NFL’s best guards this season, while center Eric Wood has also been terrific. Thus, Tyrod Taylor should have enough time to find Sammy Watkins downfield. Watkins will draw Darrelle Revis’ coverage, but Revis has declined a bit this year and is no longer a shutdown corner. The only issue here is whether Taylor will have the accuracy to connect with Watkins, as that has been an issue for the first-year starter.

The Bills aren’t expected to run the ball very well with their backs against the Jets, who are sixth against the rush in terms of YPC. However, Karlos Williams will be a factor as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, while Taylor will be able to pick up some first downs with his legs.

RECAP: Talk about overreaction. The Bills were -1.5 against the Jets last week, and now they’re three-point home dogs. That’s absolutely ridiculous. It’s amazing how quickly people have forgotten that New York barely got by the Cowboys a couple of weeks ago. That’s right – the Jets beat the duo of Matt Cassel and Kellen Moore by a field goal – which was the exact margin Buffalo led Dallas by this past weekend before a late touchdown made it 16-6.

It seems like the public has forgotten all about the Jets’ issues in Dallas because they’re pounding them at an obscene rate. More than 80 percent of the action is coming in on the Jets despite this ridiculous point spread. It really makes no sense to me.

What makes the Jets worthy of being road favorites? The only true road game they’ve won this year was back in Week 2 against the Colts, and as it turned out, Andrew Luck was playing with an injured shoulder. Since then, they lost at the Patriots (reasonable), got destroyed at Oakland (albeit without Nick Mangold), lost by a touchdown at Houston and barely squeaked by the reeling Cowboys.

The Bills are going to give the Jets all they can handle. The players have already said that this is their Super Bowl. They, along with Rex Ryan, absolutely hate the Jets and would love nothing more than to bounce them out of the playoffs. This is obviously a must-win for New York, and as I wrote below, teams that need to win in Week 17 often choke.

It’s also worth noting that the Bills have dominated this rivalry. They’ve taken the previous four, including a 22-17 victory at the Jets back in Week 10. I like that they have the interior blocking to somewhat neutralize New York’s defensive line, and if Dareus and Darby play, that’ll push them over the top.

This is my December NFL Pick of the Month. This game will be played in January, but since I’m actually making the selection in December, I’ll let it slide. Being the owner of this site also helps!

Again, this spread is a joke. Think about it this way: Jets -3 at Bills would mean Jets -9 at home versus the Bills. The Jets were -8 over the Titans three weeks ago. That means the public thinks that Tennessee, the worst team in the NFL, is one point better than Buffalo. And yes, it’s the public because New York is being bet at an 80-percent clip, which is an auto fade.

I’m 1-2 in my Picks of the Month this year. Hopefully, it’s 2-2 after Week 17. If you’re with me, good luck. If you’re against me, screw you. And you’re probably going to win, given how poor I’ve been this year!

I’ll be posting NFL Picks on Tuesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

WEDNESDAY THOUGHTS: I didn’t have any second thoughts in the past 24 hours. I still love the Bills.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a ton of public money and a bit of sharp money on the Jets, which is why the juice on this game has gone up. Bills +3 +100 is available on Bovada, so I’d think about snatching that up. It’ll be interesting to see if the pros go with the Bills on Sunday.

SUNDAY NOTES: It took me 17 weeks, but I finally got a line movement correct. This spread has dropped to -2.5 everywhere, as the sharps have pounded the Bills on Sunday morning.

The Psychology. Edge: Bills.

The Jets absolutely have to win this game, so they’ll be in choke mode. Aurora Snow Mode, for those of you who have been reading for a long time.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Who’s not betting the Jets? It’s easy money!

Percentage of money on New York: 75% (31,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

History: Bills have won the last 4 meetings (home team has won 5 of the last 7).

True home teams are 27-15 ATS in the last 42 Bills games.

Bills are 17-28 ATS in their last 45 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Jets -1.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Bills 24, Jets 21
Bills +3 +100 (7 Units – December NFL Pick of the Month) — Correct; +$700
Over 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bills 22, Jets 17

New England Patriots (12-3) at Miami Dolphins (5-10)
Line: Patriots by 9.5. Total: 46.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Patriots -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -7.
Sunday, Jan 3, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Patriots.

WEEK 17 BETTING TRENDS – TEAMS IN MUST-WIN SITUATIONS: This week, I’ll be looking at teams in must-win situations in the final week of the season. Conventional wisdom says these teams will be triumphant because they absolutely have to be victorious if they want to reach the playoffs. However, that has not been the case whatsoever.

I looked back in my pick archives to determine which teams were in Week 17 must-win situations since 2007, so I could see how frequently they covered the spread. The results may surprise many (all records against the spread):

Teams in Week 17 Must-Win Situations Since 2007 (ATS):

Home favorites: 10-15
Road favorites: 3-7

Home underdogs: 3-1
Road underdogs: 5-8

Overall Record: 21-31

Excluding home underdogs, teams that have to win are 18-30 ATS (37.5%) in the past eight seasons. That’s pretty amazing, but it makes sense. If a team has to win in the final week of the season, chances are it’s not very good in the first place.

Here’s a list of teams in must-win situations this week:

Home Favorites:
Texans (vs. Jaguars)
Colts (vs. Titans) – sort of (will explain later)

Road Favorites:
Jets (at Bills)
Steelers (at Browns)

Home Underdogs:
None

Road Underdogs:
None

As with any trend or situation, this should not be bet or faded blindly. If a hot team is legitimately coming on, don’t be afraid to wager on them. The same goes if a squad is playing an opponent resting all of its starters. This appears to be at its best when the team needing to win is battling an opponent out of playoff contention.

WEEK 17 BETTING TRENDS – MASSIVE DOG WINS: I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that two double-digit underdogs (Ravens, Rams) won outright in the same week for the first time this century. So, that begs the question: How have these teams fared after such a victory?

Not well, as it turns out. Teams coming off wins as underdogs of 10.5 or more are 31-57 against the spread (35.2%), dating back to 1989. I’ve soured on trends, but this one makes a lot of sense. First of all, the team’s not good to begin with, given that it was a huge underdog. Second, the squad figures to be flat off such a monumental victory. Thus, it’s logical to fade them in most circumstances.

MIAMI OFFENSE: I’m starting with the Dolphins because Ryan Tannehill’s status is the reason there’s no spread yet. Tannehill took a big hit toward the end of the game last week, and he found blood in his urine afterward. All of the symptoms of a bruised vag.

I’m not quite sure why Tannehill’s availability would make the books hesitate to post a number. Tannehill has struggled for the most part this season, and Matt Moore can’t possibly be that much worse. Both should be able to connect with Jarvis Landry and then throw to DeVante Parker, who will drop more passes. Of course, having time in the pocket will be an issue, as the Dolphins are missing their three best offensive linemen.

Miami could run the ball well, however. The Patriots struggle to defend outside runs without Dont’a Hightower being at full strength. Hightower played against the Jets last week, but didn’t look like himself. He told the media that he’s not 100 percent. The Patriots obviously have other injuries on this side of the ball, but I’m not sure the Dolphins have the personnel to take advantage of that.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Of course, the Patriots have problems with their scoring unit as well. Their offensive line is an abomination, as Tom Brady had no time to throw whatsoever against the Jets last week. Brady will have to deal with Ndamukong Suh in this matchup, though it’ll help toward the end of the game when an out-of-shape Suh is gassed and ready to topple over. Fortunately for the Dolphins, they also have Olivier Vernon to pick up the slack.

It’s safe to say that Brady won’t have much protection. If he did, he could easily hook up with some downfield throws to Brandon LaFell amid a poor secondary, but he’ll have to settle on checkdowns to Rob Gronkowski and James White. Gronkowski obviously is a great option, and he should have a big game despite the Dolphins playing somewhat well versus tight ends this year.

I wouldn’t expect much out of the Patriots’ ground attack, though. The Dolphins are just in the middle of the pack in terms of stopping the run, but neither Brandon Bolden nor Steven Jackson is good enough to take advantage of that, and it’s not like they have the blocking anyway.

RECAP: There was some question about the Patriots playing their starters in this game, but Brady told the media Tuesday that they’ll do whatever it takes to capture home-field advantage. I liked hearing that, as the Patriots are 11-3 against the spread in Week 17s under Bill Belichick. They’ve beaten the Dolphins easily in some of those victories, and this should be another easy win. Miami has an injured/backup quarterback and some major holes on the defensive line that the Patriots will undoubtedly exploit. Plus, I’m not sure how hard the Dolphins will play for their lame-duck coach.

There’s no spread on this game yet, so check back later or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

WEDNESDAY THOUGHTS: A spread has been posted, and it’s Patriots -10. It’s a high number, but I would still take New England. It sounds like the Patriots want the No. 1 seed, while the Dolphins could mail this in, given that they have a lame-duck coach. I don’t want to bet much – or really anything – on an offensively challenged team laying double digits, but I do think they’re the right side.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The pros have bet this down from +10 to +9.5, probably just taking a number. I wouldn’t bet this game. The Patriots aren’t good enough to be laying -9.5 on the road, but the Dolphins may just quit on their lame-duck coach.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps have bet the Dolphins a bit on Sunday morning, which just sounds crazy to me. Good luck betting this game, because I won’t be.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

As expected, everyone is betting on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 76% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Patriots have won 13 of the last 17 meetings (Home Team has won 7 of the last 8 meetings).

Patriots are 46-34 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Tom Brady is 186-62 as a starter (140-103 ATS).

Tom Brady is 34-15 ATS off a loss (4-9 ATS as -7 or more).

Tom Brady is 26-11 ATS off a loss since 2003 (4-8 ATS as -7 or more).

Bill Belichick is 17-6 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Tom Brady is 5-7 ATS at Miami.

Underdog is 65-37 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 102 games.

Dolphins are 14-4 ATS as a home underdog after two straight losses the previous 18 instances.

Opening Line: Patriots -10.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Patriots 23, Dolphins 10
Patriots -10 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Dolphins 20, Patriots 10

Baltimore Ravens (5-10) at Cincinnati Bengals (11-4)
Line: Bengals by 9.5. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Bengals -10.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bengals -10.
Sunday, Jan 3, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Bengals.

VEGAS UPDATE: The six top-bet teams each week were 46-41-3 against the spread heading into Week 16. How’d they do this past weekend? Take a look:

Patriots -3.5 – Loss

Panthers -7 – Loss

Redskins +3 – Cover

Chiefs -12.5 – Loss

Steelers -10.5 – Loss

Texans -4 – Cover

The books had a blood bath in Week 15, but were able to bounce back. There was so much money on the Patriots, while the Panthers losing outright helped them cash tons of teasers and parlays.

I don’t know if there will be as many shady things this week, but the books still may attempt to recoup those Week 15 losses. Here are the six(?) top bets in Week 17, as of Tuesday afternoon (48-45-3 ATS this year):

Steelers -12.5

Jets -3

Patriots -9.5

Texans -6

Rams -3

Giants -4

I only posted three instead of the usual six because there are only three highly bet teams right now. Actually, it’s only two, but I’m projecting the Patriots. I’ll update this later in the week.

Once again, follow @walterfootball for updates.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: You know what? I could see the public betting the Ravens as a public dog, especially if A.J. McCarron doesn’t play. McCarron’s status is the reason there’s no spread posted, as he injured his wrist at the end of the Monday night game. McCarron has been diagnosed with a strained non-throwing wrist, so he should be able to suit up. This is obviously great news for the Bengals, as their next quarterback on the depth chart is some guy named Keith Wenning. I don’t think Keith was going to do much Wenning, am i rite?

Sorry about that. Anyway, McCarron looked good in the first half of the Denver game before struggling afterward. The Bengals posted just 90 yards in the second half and overtime. However, this was against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Perhaps McCarron will fare better versus the Ravens, who have documented issues against aerial attacks. I don’t see Baltimore having much success against A.J. Green, and it’ll help the Bengals if Tyler Eifert is cleared to play.

I also think the Ravens will have trouble stopping Jeremy Hill, who actually looked functional Monday night. Baltimore has a top-10 run defense in terms of the seasonal numbers, but the team has struggled versus opposing ground attacks ever since losing Chris Canty for the year. The Ravens have surrendered 4.59 yards per carry to the opposition over the past month, which is a horrible figure.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: I have to say that I was shocked that Ryan Mallett played so well last week. Seeing him get out of bed and make it to the game on time was an amazing feat on its own, but Mallett was confident and precise, as it seemed like Marc Trestman had worked wonders with him.

Having said that, Mallett didn’t have much of a test against a poor defense that didn’t appear to take him seriously. The Bengals have one of the best stop units in the NFL, so they’ll give Mallett greater issues. Their excellent secondary will smother his pedestrian targets, while their great pass rush will put plenty of heat on him, as his blocking isn’t very good in the wake of injuries up front.

I wouldn’t expect Buck Allen to have much success either. The Bengals were weak against the run earlier in the year, but they’ve gotten better against it lately, surrendering 100-plus yards on the ground just once since Week 8. That actually occurred on Monday night, but most of Denver’s production on the ground came on one long burst from C.J. Anderson.

RECAP: Baltimore upset the Steelers last week, but Pittsburgh was being stupid and lethargic in a classic Mike Tomlin stink-bomb game. I don’t think the Ravens have the manpower to compete with an elite team like the Bengals, especially considering that they won their “Super Bowl” and could be flat as a result. I’ve mentioned how poorly teams do off victories as double-digit underdogs, and I don’t see why things would be different for Baltimore.

Assuming this spread isn’t out of hand, I’ll be backing the Bengals, who will be looking to rebound off their Monday night loss. The unit count depends on what this number is. Check back later or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

WEDNESDAY NOTES: The Bengals have opened up as nine-point favorites. I think I’ll take them for a unit. As I wrote before, the Ravens, who don’t have the manpower to hang with an elite team for 60 minutes, are coming off their “Super Bowl” win. They’ll probably be flat. The Bengals, meanwhile, will be looking to obtain a first-round bye, so they’ll definitely be focused.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has slowly been creeping up, but there’s been no indication of whom the sharps are taking. I still like Cincinnati a bit.

SUNDAY NOTES: Still no sharp money anywhere. I’m fine with my one unit on the Bengals.

The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.

The Ravens just won their “Super Bowl” by beating the Steelers. Getting up for this game will be difficult.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
A slight amount of action on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 63% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

History: Bengals have won the last 4 meetings.

John Harbaugh is 2-6 ATS in same-season divisional revenge games.

Bengals are 16-7 ATS at home since 2013.

Opening Line: Bengals -9.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Bengals 24, Ravens 10
Bengals -9.5 (1 Units) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bengals 24, Ravens 16

New Orleans Saints (6-9) at Atlanta Falcons (8-7)
Line: Falcons by 5.5. Total: 53.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : No Line (Brees).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Falcons -3.
Sunday, Jan 3, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: Lots of hate mail this week, as usual. Here’s a long one from the comment boards, written by a Redskins fan who thinks his slightly above-average team is great:

Delusional, much? And way to accuse me of things that aren’t remotely true. Fans of slightly above-average teams like the Chiefs and Jets have a history of sending me hate mail, and it sounds like Washington’s fan base is next. Bring it on!

In these next hate mails, I’m not sure if they’re from the same guy, or what, but some idiot(s) are accusing me of lying, when I have my records posted at the very top of the page:

If anything, I’m honest. I’ve been terrible this year, but at least I’ve been truthful about how bad I’ve been. If I were a liar, I’d conceal my record and boast about how I win each week. But hey, if this lunatic wants to subscribe to the Arya Stark belief that all men are liars, then I’m fine with that.

Here’s more from this idiot, as well as someone pretending to be Vince McMahon:

Captain Walt. I like the sound of that. And I don’t know why I’m getting these wedding comments for the second week in a row. I talked to like five people at my sister’s wedding, and I spent most of the time checking scores on my phone.

As I was answering these hate “mails,” a new one popped up:

Seriously, if you think I can be the face of a fast-food franchise, thank you, THANK YOU, THANK YOU!!!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Where has this Matt Ryan been all year? Ryan was amazing in the upset victory over the Panthers. He had been just mediocre thr past two months, thanks to an underwhelming supporting cast, but he was vintage Ryan in that contest, while Roddy White also seemed revitalized. The Falcons were suddenly partying like it was 2012.

Can that continue? Ordinarily, I’d say no. The Falcons put everything they had into the Carolina game, so falling back down to Earth is expected. However, they’re battling the Saints this week. New Orleans, as I’m sure you’ve heard, has an atrocious defense that hasn’t been able to stop anyone this year. The secondary is especially brutal. Delvin Breaux has been great, and could give Julio Jones some issues, but the rest of the defensive backfield is in shambles.

The Saints are horrific against the run as well. Want to know how epically bad they are in that regard? They’ve allowed 6.03 yards per carry in the past four weeks. During that span, only one team has surrendered more than five yards per carry!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Drew Brees can only do so much to make up for his horrible defense. He sometimes has to force the issue, which results in turnovers, but when he’s on, he’s difficult to stop. The Jaguars learned this the hard way last week when Brees torched them mercilessly.

The Falcons could be in for the same sort of treatment. Like the Saints, they have just one quality defensive back. Brees should be able to light them up, just like he did in the first meeting, when he went 30-of-39 for 312 yards and a touchdown in a Thursday night victory. Atlanta has accumulated the fewest sacks in the NFL, so Brees will have all the time he needs to torch them.

The only way Brees won’t have a big game is if Tim Hightower does all the work. Hightower, who has been amazing since being signed – especially considering that he was out of the league for a while – figures to have a great performance in this contest. Remember when I said that only one other team had given up more than five yards per carry in the past month? You guessed it – it’s the Falcons.

RECAP: Based on the spread – it almost certainly would’ve been -3 at most a week ago – and the public money, there’s some recency bias in the Falcons’ favor. They’ve won two in a row, but their first victory, against the Jaguars, saw them average way fewer yards per play (6.0-4.8), and the second win came against the Panthers, who were half-asleep after trashing the Falcons, 38-0, two weeks before that.

I don’t see why the Falcons suddenly deserve to be four-point favorites against a team they’re pretty evenly matched with, especially considering that they’ll likely be flat off their “Super Bowl” victory. I’ll take the points with the Saints, who have actually been better than Atlanta over the past month.

WEDNESDAY NOTES: A -4.5 line popped up at BetUS, but it’s still -4 everywhere else. I don’t have anything new to say about this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been betting up the Falcons, who are now -6. I think this might just be to get a better number for the Saints, however, and I might even consider another unit on New Orleans, as this spread is getting out of hand. I’ll have an update Sunday morning.

SUNDAY NOTES: What I wrote Saturday evening came to fruition. This spread rose to six, prompting the sharps to pound the Saints. Unfortunately, I missed out on +6, so I won’t be placing a third unit on this game.

The Psychology. Edge: Saints.

The Falcons won their “Super Bowl” versus the Panthers, so getting up as a favorite against the Saints will be difficult.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 53% (13,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Saints have won 12 of the last 17 meetings (Home Team has won 6 of the last 8).

Drew Brees is 40-28 ATS as an underdog.

Matt Ryan is 33-26 ATS at home.

Falcons are 5-19 ATS at home immediately following a home win the previous 24 instances.

Opening Line: Falcons -4.

Opening Total: 52.

Weather: Dome.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Saints 27, Falcons 24
Saints +5.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 53.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 20, Falcons 17

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10) at Houston Texans (8-7)
Line: Texans by 6. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : No Line (Hoyer).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Texans -6.
Sunday, Jan 3, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Texans.

If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It’s free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. There’s no reason not to enter. Click the link to register!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: There’s some hesitation to post this spread because Brian Hoyer is still in concussion protocol. However, Hoyer has entered the final stages of it, so it sounds like he’ll be able to suit up.

Either way, the Texans appear to be in good shape here, as Brandon Weeden has been fine as a replacement. Regardless of whether Weeden or Hoyer is starting, Houston should be able to beat Jacksonville’s inept secondary. The Jaguars can’t cover anyone, as evidenced by DeAndre Hopkins’ line of 10 catches, 148 yards and two touchdowns at Jacksonville back in Week 6.

The Jaguars aren’t completely inept defensively, as they put a decent amount of pressure on the quarterback, and they also happen to rank third versus the run, surrendering 3.53 YPC. Thus, don’t expect an offensive explosion out of the Texans, who are three weeks removed from surrendering six sacks to the Patriots.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Blake Bortles has shown some improvement this year, thanks to some great coaching, but he sometimes is guilty of a stupid play that ends up costing his team. Of course, the offensive line is partly to blame for that, as it hasn’t been able to hold up its end of the bargain.

With that in mind, how is the unit going to block J.J. Watt? I was skeptical about Watt in the wake of his broken hand, as he went into a bit of a slump afterward. However, he was great against the Titans last week. Granted, Tennessee doesn’t offer much resistance, but Jacksonville has one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The Texans can be beaten on the ground, but I’m not sure the Jaguars will be able to open up adequate running lanes for whomever their running back happens to be.

Having said that, the Jaguars will definitely have success moving the chains at times, given how prolific their two receivers are. Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns have been unstoppable this year, and outside of Johnathan Joseph, the Texans don’t have the personnel to contain them. Houston will at least handle Julius Thomas, as it has been solid against tight ends all year.

RECAP: I have a feeling this spread is going to be too high because A) The Texans just crushed the Titans, and B) They need to win this game to assure themselves a playoff spot. If so, I’ll be on the Jaguars for a couple of units.

Let’s talk about public misconception. First of all, Tennessee gave the game away last week with several early turnovers. Before that contest, the Texans barely beat Matt Hasselbeck and Charlie Whitehurst, and prior to that, they were manhandled by a skeleton-crew New England squad. Before that? They lost to the Bills, who have fallen off since. The Texans are not as good as people think they are, and the fact that they’re in a must-win situation will work against them.

Second, the Jaguars have actually averaged more yards per play than their opponent in five of their previous six games. Sure, they lost by 11 at New Orleans, but they were flat after learning that they had been eliminated from the playoffs just minutes prior to kickoff. It didn’t help that they lost Jared Odrick in the first quarter. They couldn’t stop the run without Odrick, who sustained a quad contusion. He should be fine for this game.

The Jaguars should be able to cover, as long as the spread isn’t extremely low, or anything. For a definitive pick, check back later or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

WEDNESDAY NOTES: The Texans have opened up as six-point favorites. I was hoping for a better number to take the Jaguars, but I think this is fine, as it’s definitely inviting public money to bet Houston. And that’s exactly what casual bettors are doing.

I really like the Jaguars for all of the reasons I mentioned above. I’m good with having two units on them. I’m hesitant to make this a bigger bet because I’ve been terrible wagering on Jacksonville games this year, but this one makes a lot of sense to me.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t taken the Jaguars yet, but I’ll be surprised if they don’t on Sunday morning. I’ll consider locking in the Jaguars at +6 if it falls.

SUNDAY NOTES: This number was +6 this morning. Now, it’s +5. The pros are all over the Jaguars, which is hardly a surprise.

The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.

The Texans need to win, so they’ll probably choke.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Who wouldn’t want to bet on the Texans?

Percentage of money on Houston: 75% (11,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Texans have won 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Opening Line: Texans -6.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Texans 20, Jaguars 17
Jaguars +6 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Survivor Pick (9-7) – NFL Survivor Pick Advice
Texans 30, Jaguars 6

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6) at Cleveland Browns (3-12)
Line: Steelers by 13. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Steelers -9.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -6.5.
Sunday, Jan 3, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. Can I mention how pissed off I was about there being a Christmas Eve game? I mentioned last week that the Saturday contests were the main portion of the NFL’s Divorce Package, and the Christmas Eve Chargers-Raiders battle was certainly a part of that.

There’s literally no reason to have a game on Christmas Eve. People are with their families that night; they’re not watching football. I didn’t even tune in live, and it’s my job to watch football; I DVRed the game and waited until my girlfriend went to bed, so I turned it on at 1 a.m. Making matters worse, the contest went to overtime, so by the time I finished watching it and completed my write-up, it was already 5 a.m. I didn’t get to bed around 6, which sucked because I had to get up at 10 to go to my girlfriend’s parents’ house. I was dead the entire day.

I can’t even imagine what New Year’s Eve will be like. The NCAA, in its infinite wisdom, has an 8 p.m. semi-final game scheduled that night.

The NCAA is completely incompetent, and they’ve done so many stupid things over the years, but this might be the dumbest move yet. Young dudes who love football are going to be out partying and getting drunk. Married men who love football will be out with their wives. Why not schedule the games for New Year’s Day, when everyone is hung over and has nothing better to do than wach football? It’s such common sense, though I guess we’re talking about an entity that took more than a century to realize that having a playoff would be a great revenue producer. Idiots.

2. The best part of last week wasn’t opening up Christmas presents or giving gifts to loved ones. It also wasn’t the delicious Christmas feast I had at my girlfriend’s parents’ house. It was the following tweet from Ron Jaworski:

“Wow!” is right. News broke three hours later that Odell Beckham Jr. would indeed be suspended. This prompted some hilarious responses on Twitter:

I had a good time reading these replies. And while these people were being typical Internet a**holes who would never say those things to Jaworski in real life, some of them do sort of have a point with ESPN-type reporting nowadays. ESPN has an obsession with being first with everything that it sometimes hurts their reporting. Chris Mortensen does a great job, but many of their other reporters often get things wrong because they just want to get credit for being first. Ironically, however, if another network initially reports a story, ESPN will always steal the story and have one of their guys get credit.

It’s ridiculous, so I enjoyed ESPN botching another story. This must have made Jaworski sad…

3. Speaking of Jaworski being a gang member, I had the following conversation with my girlfriend during dinner recently:

Me: So, Jared Fogle ended up getting his balls cut off!

Girlfriend: WHAT!? Are you serious!?

Me: A female ESPN reporter did it!

Girlfriend: When did this happen!? … Wait, I’m Googling this and I don’t see it.

Me: Oh, it was on Emmitt on the Brink!

Girlfriend: Ugh!

It has truly been a great season on Emmitt on the Brink. Jared from Subway got castrated, Greg Hardy drowned in his own pool, and Kim Jong-un and Roger Goodell… well, I won’t spoil it for you, but the finale reveal will be a shocker.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers laid an egg at Baltimore. They had a great matchup against a poor pass defense, yet couldn’t take advantage of it. Ben Roethlisberger was anemic, costing anyone who started him in fantasy. The same can be said for Antonio Brown, who was robbed of some catches by a horrible (or corrupt) officiating crew. And I’m saying this as someone who bet on the Ravens!

I expect a better effort from Pittsburgh this week. The Steelers will be battling a Cleveland defense that struggled to tackle at Kansas City. Tashaun Gipson, normally a stud safety, is clearly not himself because he’s banged up, so Roethlisberger and Brown should be able to take advantage of that liability.

The Steelers could be at their best running the ball in this game. The Browns rank 29th against the rush in terms of YPC. They were 31st a couple of weeks ago, but they just improved because they battled some pedestrian running backs like Shaun Draughn, Christine Michael and Charcandrick West. DeAngelo Williams has been incredible this year, so he’ll definitely put together a great performance.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns have been a different team since Mike Pettine stopped being stupid and inserted Johnny Manziel into the lineup over the awful Austin Davis. Manziel hasn’t been the best passer, but he makes enough plays with his legs to keep drives alive, allowing the Browns to put up points on the scoreboard, which they could not do with Davis.

Manziel had issues throwing the ball last week. He was picked off once and could’ve been intercepted on a couple of other occasions. However, that was against a fierce Kansas City defense. Pittsburgh’s stop unit is pretty weak in comparison. The Steelers just allowed Ryan Mallett to have he performance of a lifetime, so if one intoxicated quarterback could play well, why can’t another? Perhaps Mallett gave Manziel some tips on how to defeat Pittsburgh when they were doing suspicious things together in a shady bathroom.

At any rate, I was surprised by how well the Browns ran the ball against the Chiefs last week. Kansas City is eighth against the rush, yet Cleveland gained 124 yards on the ground. Pittsburgh is 12th versus the run, so perhaps Isaiah Crowell will have success again.

RECAP: Here’s another spread that’s out of control, just because one team is in a must-win situation. Teams often choke in these spots, so that’s one thing going against the Steelers.

Another is that they’re not as good as everyone thinks they are. They’re 3-2 since their bye. Their first victory came on national TV against Matt Hasselbeck in a blowout. That’s fine. Their second was against the Bengals, who lost both Andy Dalton and Tyler Eifert in the opening quarter. Their third was against the Broncos, who blew a 27-10 lead because Brock Osweiler got hurt.

The public is in love with offense, and that’s why they’ve been betting Pittsburgh so heavily. However, the Steelers’ defense stinks. They’re so bad on that side of the ball that they keep every team around, provided the opposing quarterback isn’t 40.

The Browns, meanwhile, have performed well lately. They nearly beat the Chiefs; they hung around against the Seahawks until a late front-door field goal; and they squashed the 49ers. They’ve been so much better with Manziel, so I like them to cover this ridiculous spread. I’m betting three units on them.

WEDNESDAY NOTES: Johnny Manziel showed up to practice with hangover, I mean concussion symptoms, and he has already been ruled out. Conspiracy theory: Manziel apparently got caught drinking again, so what if this is a ruse to save face? Did Mike Pettine tell Manziel to feign concussion-like symptoms? Because how else can anyone explain Manziel’s concussion? Unless he banged his head while downing a wine cooler, where could it have come from?

Regardless, I’m dropping all units from this game. I want no part of Austin Davis. I may even switch my pick to Pittsburgh, but I’ll need to think about it.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is pounding the Steelers like it’s easy money, and it probably is, given that Austin Davis is starting. Pittsburgh, however, has a terrible track record as a road favorite, especially when all of the money is on them. I wouldn’t bet on Davis though.

SUNDAY NOTES: This spread has taken off. The public is pounding the Steelers like there’s no tomorrow, and the sharps have shown absolutely no interest in betting the Browns.

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.

Aurora Snow Mode for the Steelers as well, who need to win this game. The Browns, meanwhile, would love nothing more than to knock out Pittsburgh.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Despite the Baltimore loss, I’m surprised there’s not more action on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 87% (24,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

History: Steelers have won 27 of the last 31 meetings.

Ben Roethlisberger is 41-22 ATS vs. the AFC North.

Steelers are 1-9 ATS on the road as favorites of -9 or more since 2004.

Steelers are 16-27 ATS as road favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Steelers -10.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Steelers 24, Browns 14
Browns +13 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Steelers 28, Browns 12

Tennessee Titans (3-12) at Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
Line: Colts by 4. Total: 39.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Colts -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Colts -13.5 (Luck) or Colts -3.5 (Morris).
Sunday, Jan 3, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Colts.

Some of you might be leaving this site until September since the regular season will be over in a few days. If so, here’s what you’ll be missing over the next four-and-a-half months:

Constant 2016 NFL Mock Draft and 2017 NFL Mock Draft updates from Charlie and myself.

Live 2016 NFL Draft Grades

2016 NFL Free Agent Rankings and Offseason Needs (very soon)

NFL Draft Rumors

NFL Draft Prospect Team Meeting Lists

2016 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings, Big Board and Scouting Report updates

Senior Bowl, East-West Shrine, NFL Draft Combine and Pro Day reports, stats, news updates and stock reports

2016 Fantasy Football Rankings and Articles from both Chet Gresham and myself

NBA and college basketball picks

2016 NCAA Tournament picks and coverage

2016 and 2017 NBA Draft updates (go here for our 2016 NBA Mock Draft by David Kay, or here for our 2016 NBA Mock Draft by Mike Elworth).

Jerks of the Week

The Emmitt Smith, April Fools and Celebrity 2016 NFL Mock Drafts (i.e. jokes about fat coaches, drunk quarterbacks and clueless announcers – the usual)

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts might be starting Andrew Luck this week. Or, it could be Stephen Morris. Think there’s a bit of a disparity between the talent of those two quarterbacks?

The latest on Luck, as of noon Tuesday, is that he still hasn’t been cleared from his kidney injury. It’s a long shot that the Colts will make the playoffs – I’ll have details below – so why risk Luck for the long haul? Besides, Morris can’t be that much worse than Charlie Whitehurst, can he?

It’s fortunate for the Colts that they’ll be battling the worst team in the NFL, so perhaps they’ll stand a chance with Morris. They’ll obviously have to lean on Frank Gore, who had a great game against the Dolphins before the coaching staff inexplicably forgot to feed him the ball in the second half. The Titans, who have given up at times in recent weeks, have surrendered more than four yards per carry in the past month, so that bodes well for Gore’s chances.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: As with Luck, Marcus Mariota is a long shot to play. He’s dealing with an MCL injury, but hasn’t been ruled out yet. He practiced at “less than full speed” on Monday, but I can’t imagine ownership green-lighting this move. Why risk Mariota for the long haul in a meaningless game? In fact, a victory would be detrimental, as the Titans would have to surrender the No. 1 overall pick, which has effectively become the Laremy Tunsil sweepstakes (check out my 2016 NFL Mock Draft for more).

If it’s Zach Mettenberger, don’t expect the Titans to accomplish much on this side of the ball. They can’t do anything well. Their pass protection sucks, so the Colts, who notched six sacks at Miami, will put heavy pressure on Mettenberger, who doesn’t really have anyone to throw to besides Delanie Walker. They also can’t rush the ball with their awful running backs. In other words, they won’t be moving the chains very much.

RECAP: Unlike the other games, I have no idea what this spread is going to be. It’ll obviously be way higher with Luck, but how high? Will the Colts be favored by 10? Two touchdowns? And what about with Morris?

As indicated earlier, I think it’ll be Morris. That’s because for the Colts to make the playoffs, they need the following things to happen on top of winning this game:

Bills beat Jets
Dolphins beat Patriots
Falcons beat Saints
Ravens beat Bengals
Steelers beat Browns
Jaguars beat Texans
Raiders beat Chiefs
Broncos beat Chargers

If it wasn’t for the Dolphins beating the Patriots, it wouldn’t be that improbable. Alas, Tom Brady said he’ll be going all out to capture home-field advantage versus the woeful Dolphins. Poor Colts.

I’m not sure how to read this one yet, but perhaps I’ll have a clearer picture when the spread is posted. This is the fourth time I’ve written this, but check back later or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

WEDNESDAY NOTES: No line posted yet.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Wow, it’s Saturday evening, and there’s still no spread posted. I don’t get it. It’s either Josh Freeman or Ryan Lindley, and both are terrible. Why not post a line?

SPREAD POSTED: Freeman will start for the Colts. I can’t, under any circumstances, recommend betting him laying more than a field goal. He is an abomination, and I’m not sure if his head is screwed on straight yet. He could easily throw three pick-sixes. I would bet the other team in this circumstance 30 out of 31 times. However, the Titans are the worst team in the NFL without Mariota, and they could be mailing it in because of their lame-duck coach.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

A decent amount on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 65% (5,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: Colts have won 21 of the last 25 meetings.

Opening Line: Colts -3.5.

Opening Total: 39.

Weather: Dome.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Colts 16, Titans 6
Colts -4 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 39 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Colts 30, Titans 24

Washington Redskins (8-7) at Dallas Cowboys (4-11)
Line: Cowboys by 3. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cowboys -3.
Sunday, Jan 3, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: TBA.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Five years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for the 2013 season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses. In 2014, Donald Sterling answered spammers.

This week, I have a new Spam Mail in which some person told me he was robbed on vacations in Manila. How could I possibly help!? Check out the link.

BENCHED STARTERS: There aren’t many throw-away games in Week 17 this year. However, this is one of them. The Redskins have absolutely nothing to play for, as they’re locked into the No. 4 seed. It hasn’t been announced if Jay Gruden will play his starters or not, but I can’t imagine Kirk Cousins and Jordan Reed will go the whole way. Perhaps they’ll be on the field for a drive or a quarter, but not much more than that. Risking them would be irresponsible.

Because of this, I can’t really give any analysis on the matchups of this game. I can’t see Colt McCoy having great success against the Cowboys, though he did beat them on a Monday night last year. He did this with other starters, but he won’t have the luxury of playing with many first-stringers, in all likelihood. Meanwhile, I’m sure Kellen Moore will continue to struggle, even against Washington’s backups. He’s just not good.

RECAP: Betting this game is impossible – unless the Cowboys will be favored by too much. If they are, I’ll definitely be taking the Redskins because Moore shouldn’t be laying many points against anyone. For the fifth time, check back later or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

WEDNESDAY NOTES: The Cowboys have opened as 3.5-point favorites. Jay Gruden said that he’s thinking about resting his starters. I’m sure he will. Thus, this game is unbettable. I’ll be on the Redskins, as Kellen Moore doesn’t deserve to be laying more than a field goal, but I won’t be wagering on this contest at all.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is betting the Redskins, completely oblivious to the fact that Colt McCoy will be playing. The sharps are taking the Cowboys. I don’t want any part of this game.

SUNDAY NOTES: I messed up. The public isn’t on the Redskins; it’s the professionals. Washington seems like a decent play, as Kellen Moore shouldn’t be bet to cover a field goal. I almost considered betting a unit on Washington.

The Psychology. Edge: TBA.
The Redskins may sit their starters. It’s unclear what their motivation is.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

I wonder if the people betting on this game know that the Redskins will be resting their starters.

Percentage of money on Washington: 77% (8,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

History: Underdog has covered 10 of the previous 15 meetings.

The underdog is 59-35 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Redskins are 10-25 ATS after a road win since 2000.

Cowboys are 28-20 ATS as an underdog since 2009. ???

Cowboys are 12-23 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving). ???

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.5.

Opening Total: 39.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Cowboys 13, Redskins 12
Redskins +3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Redskins 34, Cowboys 23

Detroit Lions (6-9) at Chicago Bears (6-9)
Line: Lions by 2.5. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Bears -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Jan 3, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Lions.

Video of the Week: This is a great way to spend eight seconds of your life (thanks, Ron O):

Oh man. If I weren’t such an a**hole, I’d actually feel bad about laughing at that kid.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Matthew Stafford has been so much better ever since returning from London. He continued his strong play last week, torching the 49ers. He went 29-of-37 for 301 yards and two touchdowns, and that wasn’t even his best game since the bye. Following his Week 9 off, when he was able to work with new offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, Stafford has thrown 16 touchdowns to just two interceptions, and he has completed at least 62.9 percent of his passes in every contest.

There’s no reason to think that Stafford will regress here. The Bears have a defense comprised of several liabilities. Chicago’s secondary has regressed lately, as teams have finally figured out that Tracy Porter can be thrown on. As a consequence, the Bears have surrendered 9.1 YPA in the past month, which is the highest figure in the NFL during that span. It doesn’t help that their middling pass rush has also worsened, tallying just two sacks in as many weeks.

The Bears have been slightly better versus the run lately, but Detroit doesn’t rush the ball all that well. They do throw the hell out of it, so I think that bodes well for them in this matchup.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: I’ll give Jay Cutler credit. He showed a complete lack of interest against the Vikings, so I thought he was going to revert to chain-smoking mode, which is always fun when betting against him because he tends to throw #yolo passes that often get intercepted. However, Cutler put forth a good amount of effort in Tampa, which was shocking.

Cutler may try hard again in this game, but it’ll be tough for him to replicate his performance from Week 16. He’ll be battling a much tougher defense that has also improved since the bye. While the Buccaneers have no secondary, the Lions stop the pass pretty well. Remember when I said that the Bears were giving up 9.1 YPA over the past month? Well, the Lions are maintaining a 6.7 YPA figure during that span despite battling Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. They should have no problem shutting down Cutler, especially if Alshon Jeffery is out again.

Jeffery isn’t the only top-talent skill-position player banged up on Chicago’s roster. Matt Forte left last week’s game with a back injury. However, this isn’t as big of a deal because Jeremy Langford has proven to be a capable replacement. The Lions, despite their defensive improvements, are still weak against the run, so Langford should be able to take advantage of that.

RECAP: I love the way the Lions are playing right now. I was willing to lay nine points with them against the 49ers, so I’ll definitely be happy take a point here.

Detroit is unquestionably the better team. They’ve just been so much more impressive than the Bears, who were only able to win last week because the Buccaneers murdered themselves by committing too many mistakes. The motivation is also apparent; the Lions want to finish strong so that it carries over into next year, and all they have to do is win this game in order to cover.

I should note that the Bears have divisional revenge on their side, but that hasn’t meant anything in this rivalry. The Lions have enjoyed great success versus the Bears, winning their previous five matchups. Before that, it was Chicago that had claimed nine of 10 meetings. Detroit’s domination should continue, and I’m willing to wager two units on it.

WEDNESDAY NOTES: Nothing new here. I still like the Lions.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There hasn’t been an indication of whom the sharps like here, but they could be waiting until Sunday morning. I’ve been thinking about it, and I may place a third unit on the Lions. They’re just a lot better than this Chicago team, which has no home-field advantage.

SUNDAY NOTES: Based on what I wrote Saturday night, I can’t say I’m disappointed that the sharps have pounded the Lions on Sunday morning. I’ve put a third unit on Detroit.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

The Lions are a slight public dog.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 69% (11,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

History: Lions have won the last 5 meetings.

Lions are 18-32 ATS against losing teams the previous 50 instances.

Lions are 2-13 ATS after a double-digit win since 2011.

Matthew Stafford is 4-10 ATS as a favorite following 2+ wins.

John Fox is 10-6 ATS in same-season divisional revenge games.

John Fox is 9-4 ATS in Week 17 games.

Jay Cutler is 42-71 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Bears -1.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Lions 24, Bears 19
Lions -2.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Lions 24, Bears 20

Philadelphia Eagles (6-9) at New York Giants (6-9)
Line: Giants by 4. Total: 51.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Giants -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Giants -3.
Sunday, Jan 3, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

I’ve been citing that Tom Brady has lost his “clutch” ability over the past few years, but I guess I can’t do that any longer because he just won his fourth Super Bowl. Or, can I…? Brady, after all, reached the “Big Game” with the help of his deflated footballs.

Brady was stuck on three Super Bowls for a long time before he resorted to cheating. So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona. Including this one…

To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I live right outside of Philly, and I can tell you that no one in this city is happy right now. Everyone is frustrated with Chip Kelly. They all want him fired, and he definitely deserves it. Kelly depleted all of the talent on this roster as the general manager, hamstring himself as the coach. He has also been guilty of predictable play-calling and poor decision-making during games. It’s a complete mess, and the players don’t even want a part of it. Jason Peters took himself out of the game in the fourth quarter versus Washington and was overheard saying, “I’m not getting injured for this.”

Having said that, if the Eagles show up to play, they could have success against the Giants, given New York’s defensive liabilities. The Giants don’t rush the passer well, and their issues at safety make them vulnerable to deep plays. Sam Bradford has improved lately, and he should be able to move the chains effectively when throwing to Jordan Matthews. Unfortunately for Bradford, his other “skill”-position players drop countless passes.

The Giants have also been weak against the run; they surrendered 210 rushing yards to the Vikings on Sunday night. I wouldn’t expect them to allow that sort of total again because A) Ryan Mathews and DeMarco Murray are not Adrian Peterson, and B) It’s easy to figure out when Kelly is going to run the ball, but the Eagles should still have some success on the ground.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Speaking of the Giants’ brutal loss on Sunday night, that wasn’t nearly indicative of their talent level. Two things prompted that blowout. The first was the fact that they were eliminated hours prior to kickoff, squashing any sort of motivation they might have had. Second, Odell Beckham Jr. wasn’t available, and his absence completely hindered the offense.

Beckham will be back for this game, and he’ll have a fun time abusing Philadelphia’s anemic secondary. The Eagles did a good job on Beckham during the first matchup, but that was because the stud receiver was dealing with an injury. He’s completely healthy now, and he’ll be hungry for a big game after missing last week’s contest.

The Giants, however, won’t sustain consistent drives, as the Eagles figure to disrupt their scoring attack with pressure. New York’s offensive line is banged up, and the one thing the Eagles do well on this side of the ball is rush the passer effectively.

RECAP: I don’t have a strong feel for this game because motivation is unclear. Will the Eagles try hard for a coach they seem to have lost respect for? Will the Giants put forth any sort of effort after being complete no-shows at Minnesota? There are too many questions to handicap this game effectively – something I have an issue doing when there aren’t even any questions to begin with!

I’m going to take the points for two reasons. First, it’s never a bad idea to back the road underdog in NFC East battles; Philadelphia is 24-13 ATS getting points in away games since 2005. Second, the Eagles have dominated this rivalry, winning four of the five matchups with Kelly as head coach.

WEDNESDAY NOTES: I’m changing my pick here. Chip Kelly has been fired, so I don’t know how the Eagles are going to prepare for this game. The Giants, meanwhile, may try extra hard for Tom Coughlin. That said, I won’t be betting on this contest.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has been moving up, and it’s legit sharp action. I guess they had the same thought process I did, which is that the Eagles will fold with a lame-duck assistant coach on the sidelines.

SUNDAY NOTES: While the sharps were on the Giants earlier, they’ve bet the Eagles on Sunday morning. I can’t read this game at all.

The Psychology. Edge: Unknown.
Either team could fail to show up. Perhaps both.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

Equal action early, but now everyone’s taking the Giants.

Percentage of money on New York: 72% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Road Team has won 12 of the last 17 meetings.

History: Eagles have won 12 the last 15 meetings.

Eagles are 24-13 ATS as road underdogs since 2005.

Opening Line: Giants -3.5.

Opening Total: 52.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Giants 30, Eagles 24
Giants -4 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 51 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 35, Giants 30

Week 17 NFL Picks – Late Games
Tampa Bay at Carolina, Oakland at Kansas City, San Diego at Denver, Seattle at Arizona, St. Louis at San Francisco, Minnesota at Green Bay

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 17 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2024): 6-7 (-$1,275)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 2-2 (+$65)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 1-3 (-$905)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2024): 6-7-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2024): -$435

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 78-79-6, 49.7% (-$4,565)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 19-25-1, 43.2% (-$1,180)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 15-17, 46.9% (-$1,555)
2024 Season Over-Under: 76-74-2, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$165

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)