NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2015

NFL Picks (Preseason 2015): 7-10-1 (-$1,420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2015): 10-6 (+$940)

NFL Picks (2015): 17-16-1 (-$480)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 21, 5:55 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 2 NFL Picks – Late Games

Denver Broncos (1-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)
Line: Chiefs by 3. Total: 42.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Thursday, Sep 17, 8:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Broncos.

WEEK 1 RECAP: I had a horrible Week 1 history going into the 2014 season, so I’m glad I’ve been able to win the past couple of opening weeks. This Week 1 is definitely the best one I’ve enjoyed in a long time. I’m 8-6, +$640 heading into Monday night, and I’m pretty stoked about that. Now, about winning in those other 16 weeks…

I need to note that I made two-and-a-half awful picks, selecting the Raiders, Jaguars and Browns for multiple units. A Facebook friend pointed this out:

I actually don’t think the Cleveland selection was that bad; the Browns could definitely have covered with Josh McCown. Had I known that Johnny Manziel would play, however, I would have stayed off the game completely. In fact, I may have even wagered on the Jets. Manziel is hot dog crap garabge, and he gift-wrapped that win for New York.

WEEK 2 BETTING TRENDS: I’d like to go back to something I utilized frequently last year, to decent success. It has to do with the “Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread” you may have seen on every pick capsule on these pages. If you don’t know what that is, the Hilton – technically the Westgate now – publishes point spreads for the following week prior to Sunday’s games. So, they had Week 2 lines up before Week 1 even kicked off.

Keeping track of these is very useful because it helps gauge overreactions. I monitored the games last year in which the spread moved two points or more, as long as injuries weren’t taken into account. As it turns out, this strategy went 35-22 against the spread, which is good for a terrific 61.4-percent clip.

Week 2 is Overreaction Week, so I think we have some good examples of stupid line movements:

Before Week 1	After Week 1
Broncos PK	Broncos +3
Buccaneers +7	Buccaneers +10
Colts -9.5	Colts -7

Peyton Manning sucks! Jameis Winston is the biggest bust ever! Colts are terrible! See what I mean? Keep in mind that several spreads haven’t been posted yet, so we could get more overreaction lines come Tuesday morning, so check back then.

If you’ve kept track of the advance spreads, you may have noticed that there are two games missing. The Bills went from +2.5 to PK, while the Titans moved from +4 to +2. The former isn’t really an overreaction because it opened Patriots -1.5, but was heavily bet to pick by the sharps on Sunday night. As for Tennessee, the spread moved in part because Josh McCown is out. Once again, Manziel is hot dog crap garbage.

DENVER OFFENSE: Looks like I had the wrong future Hall of Fame quarterback. I talked about Tom Brady looking like a rotting corpse, but Peyton Manning was the one who most resembled one in Week 1. Manning was terrible, as his passes showed zero zip. It didn’t help that he was hindered by poor pass protection, but even when he had time, he couldn’t connect on any of his receivers downfield.

Manning was battling a tough Baltimore defense, so things will obviously be easier against inferior stop units. The Chiefs don’t have one, for the most part. They own an excellent pass rush, thanks, of course, to Justin Houston and Tamba Hali. They’ll dominate the Denver front and put immense pressure on Manning. An improved secondary, meanwhile, will do a better job of sticking with Manning’s receivers.

A potential weak point for Kansas City’s defense is its run-stopping ability. The Chiefs did well in Week 1, but were going up against Alfred Blue, who didn’t have many opportunities because the contest was lopsided almost instantly. C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman will definitely have more success, though the Chiefs’ ground defense will be better than in 2014 with Derrick Johnson back.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Broncos are much stronger on this side of the ball; it’s their defense that gives them a strong chance to reclaim the division. They completely put the clamps on Justin Forsett, and while Jamaal Charles is far superior, he’ll have similar issues running against Denver’s stout front.

Alex Smith will have to beat Denver’s secondary to win this game, but that could be problematic because the Broncos are at their best rushing the quarterback with Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. They put a tremendous amount of heat on Joe Flacco, and I suspect they’ll do the same to Smith, who is shielded by a shaky blocking unit. Eric Fisher could be back, but it doesn’t matter because he’s a wuss.

RECAP: It’s crazy that this spread has moved three points because of dumb overreaction by both the media and public. Everyone thinks Manning is done, and while that might be true from a physical standpoint, he is still the smartest quarterback in the NFL. He’ll be able to solve Kansas City’s defense, as he always has.

I like the broncos for a couple of units. They’re better than the Chiefs, so I’ll take them at +3 and plus money in this situation. They’ve also owned Kansas City, and I don’t see what the Chiefs have done to suddenly change that.

I’ll be posting NFL Picks on Wednesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As expected, everyone’s writing off Manning. Most expect the Chiefs to win because of Manning and his offensive line. Well, what about Alex Smith and his offensive line, which also sucks? Denver’s defense is awesome and will make life very difficult for Smith. I’m sticking with the Broncos for two units.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
It’s weird to see the public not betting Peyton Manning in a primetime game.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 55% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Broncos have won the last 7 meetings.

Peyton Manning is 44-28 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.

Opening Line: Chiefs -1.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Broncos 20, Chiefs 17
Broncos +3 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Broncos 31, Chiefs 24

Houston Texans (0-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-0)
Line: Panthers by 3. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Panthers -2.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -3.5.
Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: The sportsbooks had the worst opening Sunday in 20 years. That’s not an exaggeration. Almost every single public pick cashed; the Bills and Rams prevented it from being a complete bloodbath. As Matvei told me, there were going to be bodies buried in the desert if the Falcons and/or 49ers didn’t cover Monday night, and sure enough, they did. Perhaps that’s why Chip Kelly’s offense did nothing in the first half, or why Teddy Bridgewater was sailing passes out of bounds. Hmm…

Here were the six highest-bet games from Week 1, which I listed on Tuesday of last week:

Packers -6.5 – Cover

Dolphins -4 – Cover

Eagles -3 – Loss

Colts -2.5 – Loss

Vikings -2.5 – Loss

Seahawks -4 – Loss

As you can see, Monday night really saved the books. Here are the six top bets on Week 2, as of Wednesday afternoon:

Rams -3.5

Dolphins -6

Titans -1

Cardinals -2

Patriots -1

Lions +3

Once again, follow @walterfootball for updates.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Despite battling Jacksonville’s anemic defense, the Panthers didn’t produce much offensively this past week. They scored 20 points, but seven of it came on a pick-six. They struggled to move the chains for the most part, though they were able to convert crucial third downs during the final quarter to ice the game.

Keeping drives alive will be much more difficult in this matchup. I realize that the Texans surrendered 27 points to the Chiefs, but again, much of that came off turnovers. Carolina has major issues on its offensive line, and I can’t imagine it having success blocking J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney, who had a decent 2015 debut. Besides, it’s not like Cam Newton has anyone to throw to besides Greg Olsen, anyway. His best receiver right now is Ted Ginn, for crying out loud.

Also, don’t expect much from the running game. I don’t know what happened in the opener, but I still expect the Texans to be solid against the rush this year, thanks to Watt and Vince Wilfork clogging the interior. Carolina’s poor offensive line won’t be able to open up many holes.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Bill O’Brien hasn’t announced which quarterback he’s planning on going with as of this writing, but I have to believe it’s Ryan Mallett. I don’t know what happened to Brian Hoyer last week; I expected so much more from him, yet he looked like he had never played football before in his life.

Mallett has his own issues – mostly in terms of the mental part of the game – but the one thing he has going for him right now is that there isn’t a lot of tape on him. Thus, he could have success until teams figure him out and trick him into turnovers. I don’t envision that being too far into the future, but as for now, Mallett seems like a decent option.

It would help Mallett if he had Arian Foster at his disposal, but it doesn’t sound like Foster is coming back until Week 4 or 5 (we were told the former back in late August). Alfred Blue wasn’t very impressive in the opener, and I can’t imagine him having a good game versus Carolina’s stout front.

RECAP: I wouldn’t recommend laying more than three with this Carolina team all year, unless it’s playing one of the worst teams in the league, like Jacksonville. The team just can’t score enough to cover many spreads higher than a field goal.

The Texans, despite their Week 1 loss, are most definitely not one of the worst teams in the NFL. They’ll be hungrier than the Panthers to avoid an 0-2 start, so I’m going to pick them to cover. I don’t like it very much though, so it’ll be a zero-unit play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s shrap money on the Texans – not sharp money – however it’s also worth noting that Pinnacle, the sharpest sportsbook, has this listed as Panthers -3 +100 despite it being -3 -110 elsewhere. That makes me think Houston is the right side. It’s tough to say though, as this is a toss-up.

SUNDAY NOTES: Nothing has changed for me. Even though the Panthers are missing Luke Kuechly and Star Lotulelei, I can’t bring myself to bet the Texans at just +3.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 52% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Panthers -3.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Panthers 17, Texans 16
Texans +3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 41 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Panthers 24, Texans 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-1)
Line: Saints by 10. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Saints -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -9.5.
Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Saints.

The most illiterate sports bettor in the world is a man named the Real John Moss. He loves to e-mail me and talk to me on G-chat. I’ve posted all of the messages he’s sent me over the years, including those in 2012 and those in 2013.

I didn’t hear from the Real John Moss in 2014, so I just assumed that he was either dead, locked up, or passed out in a ditch somewhere. Fortunately, he contacted me over the summer!

Here’s a link to the lastest Real John Moss conversation.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: I feel like I almost have to begin with the Buccaneers, based on how putrid Jameis Winston was in the opener. It looked like he didn’t spend a single second preparing for the game. Also, by the way he was sweating in the first quarter, it appeared as though it was too hot for him, which is weird because he played at Florida State. Charlie told me that the Buccaneers scheduled last week’s contest for 4 p.m. because the fans complained about the 1 p.m. heat in the past. With that in mind, perhaps ownership will be forced to reschedule for midnight from now on, just so Winston doesn’t overheat.

The good news for Winston is that it’ll be nice and air conditioned in the Superdome. Perhaps he’ll play better; it’s not like he’ll be battling a tough defense. The Saints were up to their old tricks last week, struggling in all facets. Save for Cameron Jordan, there was not one single New Orleans defender who had a good game – and this happened to be against Arizona’s offense. The Buccaneers don’t have a great scoring attack either, but their play-makers at receiver and tight end are so much better than what the Cardinals possess.

I also liked what I saw out of Doug Martin last week. Martin, who was impressive during the preseason, continued to look like a man who is hungry for a new contract. Considering how easily Andre Ellington ran on the Saints, Martin could have a big game.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints’ scorung attack looked great last week – at least it did when the team was in between the 20s. New Orleans struggled in the red zone; it had to settle for three field goals in four possessions in which it reached inside the Cardinals’ 30-yard line. Don’t think that this is a fluke incident; the Saints were woeful in this regard last year, and that was with Jimmy Graham serving as a big, end-zone target.

I’m curious to see if things improve this week. After all, the Saints are at home, where they’ll be battling one of the worst defenses in the NFL. I discussed New Orleans’ stop unit playing poorly, but that defense looked like the ’85 Bears in comparison to Tampa’s last week. The Buccaneers were absolutely atrocious against both the run and the pass, and save for Gerald McCoy, they couldn’t apply any pressure on the quarterback. And now they have to go from Marcus Mariota in his debut to Drew Brees in the Superdome. Uh oh…

RECAP: This is another non-play for me. There’s no way I’m betting the Buccaneers after how terrible they looked last week, but I don’t want to lay double digits with the Saints either – not until they prove to me they can blow out a bad team, which they couldn’t do last year. If their red-zone woes aren’t resolved, they’ll be settling for too many threes and not enough sevens, which is never good news when you’re taking a favorite of 10 or more.

Gun to my head, I’m going with the Buccaneers, simply because of line value. This spread was +7 a week ago, and now it’s +10, so that’s something. Not nearly enough for me to bet, unfortunately.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The shraps are also on the Buccaneers. And once again, Pinnacle has a favorable spread on the Saints -10 +111 rather than -10 +100 in many other books, meaning they are inviting action on the host. If I were taking the Saints, I would still be worried about that red zone offense, but perhaps New Orleans will find its way against the woeful Buccaneers.

SUNDAY NOTES: The shraps are driving this line down, and Pinnacle has this listed at -8.5, hoping people will bet the Saints. The Buccaneers seem like the right side, but I’m not betting on what could be the worst team in the NFL.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

I can’t imagine too many people excited to bet on Jameis Winston.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 73% (27,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Saints have won the last 7 meetings.

Road Team is 57-33 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Lovie Smith is 7-1 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+.

Saints are 35-19 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Drew Brees is 31-20 ATS after a loss with the Saints (9-4 ATS as an underdog).

Opening Line: Saints -10.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Saints 26, Buccaneers 20
Buccaneers +10 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Buccaneers 26, Saints 19

San Francisco 49ers (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1)
Line: Steelers by 6. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Steelers -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -4.5.
Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: Lots of hate mail this week, despite my successful Week 1. Can’t say I’m surprised!

The Raiders didn’t put in enough “effort” as if an entire NFL team is just going to not try in a game. So the bengals still suck because they didn’t play a “real team”. Top notch analysis Walt.

Thanks bro, I try my best.

Should never have listened to your noise about Alex Smith. And where was vaunted Texans defense: Watt and Wilfork?

Umm… are you really complaining about a zero-unit loss?

The fact that you actually thought the Raiders would beat the Bengals. Solid play. And it’s not that the Raiders suck, cause they don’t. It’s that you have consistently underestimated the Bengals for years now. They are actually a pretty good team.

Yeah, can’t believe I’ve been so stupid. All of the playoff success they’ve had over the years now should’ve made me see the light. Why am I so dumb!?!?!

I can’t wait to see his excuses for why they won…almost 0% chance it’s “I was wrong about the Bengals.” He will say “If Derek Carr wouldn’t have gotten hurt…..” That’s exactly what he’ll say, despite the Bengals up 10-0 and dominating the trenches on both sides before he got hurt.

Raiders would have won 34-7 if Carr never would’ve gotten hurt. How do you not see that?

Good call on the Jets game…you were almost right. #Hatersgonnahate

Thanks. Yeah, if McCown didn’t get hurt, the Browns would’ve won 44-0, darn it.

Here’s something from Charlie’s mock:

WTF is that? Seriously? If anyone knows this guy, please call help for him before he hurts himself or someone else.

Here’s something cool: Some guy who has been sending me nothing but hate mail for years told me that the Patriots -7 was a lock. Even though he didn’t lose – it was a push – I decided to send him hate mail:

It didn’t stop there. He continued to hound me for some reason, and then he told me to lock in Michigan State -5. That didn’t cover, as the Spartans won by just three. Time for more hate mail from me!

Man, that felt good. Now I know why people send me hate mail!

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: I’m kicking this off with the 49ers’ scoring attack, just so I can comment on the Steelers’ defense. It was amazing to me how inept they were in the opener. It’s understandable that they, or any other defense, for that matter, would have issues covering Rob Gronkowski, but to leave him wide open on so many plays is inexcusable. And Gronkowski wasn’t the only player who was left uncovered; Julian Edelman was open on so many plays as well. Making matters worse, Pittsburgh didn’t even know how to line up on most occasions. I don’t understand how that happened. Isn’t that Football 101? How wasn’t that taught to the players on the first day of training camp, or even OTAs? It’s like seeing a human not knowing how to breathe. It was just baffling.

The Steelers have enjoyed a few extra days to fix things, but if they couldn’t figure out how to line up over the past couple of months, how is that going to change in just a week-and-half? Besides, it’s not like there will suddenly be an influx of talented players in the secondary. Pittsburgh may just have the worst defense in the NFL, and I expect every single quarterback battling it to have his best game of the year.

Colin Kaepernick will torch the Steelers – and also run circles around them – while Carlos Hyde figures to have another great performance. Hyde was amazing Monday night, and while Pittsburgh is much better versus the run than the pass, it’s still not very good in terms of putting the clamps on ground attacks.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: What the Steelers can do is score – unless, of course, they’re shooting themselves in the foot with dumb mistakes like they did on Thursday night. Whenever they had a good-looking drive going, they’d commit some sort of penalty, use a horrible trick play, or miss a field goal. It was agonizing to watch, especially since I had the Steelers +7.5, albeit on a non-bet.

If the Steelers play a clean football game, they should score a ton of points in this contest. Despite Trent Dilfer’s assertion that San Francisco has a “roster people would die for,” there isn’t much on defense outside of NaVorro Bowman and Antoine Bethea. Teddy Bridgewater won’t be there to float miserable passes out of bounds; Ben Roethlisberger will throw accurate strikes to Antonio Brown against a secondary that lost both of its starting corners in the offseason. And while DeAngelo Williams won’t be able to run the ball as well as he did last Thursday, Pittsburgh will move the chains effectively on most drives.

RECAP: I was hoping that public and media overreaction to the Steelers losing and 49ers winning would push this spread closer to -3. Alas, it did not happen, so we don’t have much line value.

I went back and forth on this game – I actually switched my pick during the podcast, which will be up tonight or Thursday morning – but I’m taking the Steelers. They’ll be desperate to avoid an 0-2 start, and I think San Francisco winning like it did Monday night will make Pittsburgh respect its opponent enough to take this game seriously. Meanwhile, the 49ers just endured a late Monday night game, and now they have to travel across the country to play on a 10 a.m. local start time. That’s not good news, especially considering how much of a statement game their victory over the Vikings was. Having said that, I don’t feel safe with the Steelers at all, as their defensive ineptitude definitely opens up the strong possibility of a back-door cover.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Some public money and some sharp money on the Steelers, but not an overwhelming amount in either regard. The spread has risen from -5.5 to -6.5. I’d still take the Steelers if I had to, even though Pinnacle is inviting money on Pittsburgh (-6.5 +100).

SUNDAY NOTES: This spread keeps fluctuating between -5.5 and -6.5. You have a lot of options regardless of which side you’re on. I’m not betting this game.

The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.

The Steelers will be desperate to avoid 0-1. The 49ers, meanwhile, are high off their “prove it” victory.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Suddenly, a lot of action on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 67% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Steelers -6.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Steelers 31, 49ers 24
Steelers -6 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Steelers 43, 49ers 18

Detroit Lions (0-1) at Minnesota Vikings (0-1)
Line: Vikings by 2.5. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Vikings -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Vikings -4.
Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It’s free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. There’s no reason not to enter. Click the link to register!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings failed to produce anything Monday night, but it’s tough to take that game seriously. It was a 9:20 p.m. Central start, after all, meaning by the time the fourth quarter rolled around, it was already midnight local time for Minnesota. Circadian rhythms are a proven factor when it comes to football, so the Vikings were sleepwalking.

They’ll definitely be more awake for this matchup, especially with the possibility of an 0-2 start looming. Fortunately for Teddy Bridgewater and company, they have a better matchup on this side of the ball. The Lions clearly aren’t the same defensively, as their defense appeared to be helpless versus San Diego in the opener. Bridgewater won’t be under as much pressure with Ndamukong Suh gone, so I like his chances of rebounding, especially if he connects with Kyle Rudolph early and often. Rudolph has a great matchup, as Stephen Tulloch showed a complete inability to cover Ladarius Green.

Adrian Peterson figures to bounce back as well. Peterson struggled versus his usual nemesis, but he’ll have success against the Lions, who strangely did not get a good performance out of Haloti Ngata in the opener. Perhaps they acquired a lemon from the Ravens.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions are supposed to be better on this side of the ball this year, thanks to added protection. However, they simply stopped scoring in the opener. The catalyst was a huge hit Matthew Stafford took from Melvin Ingram during the middle of the game. Detroit mustered just three points after that happened.

Stafford’s status is unknown. He expects to play, but at what capacity? Will he be the same quarterback who torched San Diego early on, or the one who looked scared and made #yolo throws that ended up being intercepted? That’s unclear, but what we do know is that the Vikings’ defense will put forth a better effort this time. Many members of the defense, including Everson Griffen, simply didn’t show up to play at San Francisco. Now that Minnesota will have a normal start time, I expect many of its defensive players to step up.

With that in mind, I don’t expect the Vikings to allow a week-high rushing total to a running back this time. Carlos Hyde was amazing, and while Ameer Abdullah flashed in the opener, the Lions aren’t using him enough yet. Abdullah could definitely break a couple of big gains, but Joique Bell won’t be able to do much, as he just doesn’t look like himself.

RECAP: I apologize for yet another zero-unit pick. The big bets are coming, I promise.

I’m just not in love with either side though, but I do have a lean on the Vikings. This spread was -2.5 a week ago, and yet now it’s -3, despite how bad Minnesota was on Monday night? Something weird is going on here, especially with the public pounding the Lions. The sportsbooks are just dying for people to bet Detroit, so I’ll be going the other way.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The shraps and public are pounding the Lions. Pinnacle is baiting them, listing +2.5 instead of +2, which it has dropped to. With a better spread, I may put a unit on the Vikings on Sunday morning. Check back then, or follow me @walterfootball.

SUNDAY NOTES: I was hoping this spread would continue to fall, but there’s sharp money coming in on Minnesota. With DeAndre Levy declared out again – a huge loss – I’m going to put a unit on the Vikings.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

No surprise that the public is pounding the Lions after what they saw Monday night.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 69% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Vikings have won 24 of the last 31 meetings (Lions won 3 of last 4).

Lions are 14-27 ATS against losing teams the previous 41 instances.

Opening Line: Vikings -3.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Vikings 24, Lions 17
Vikings -2.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Vikings 26, Lions 16

New England Patriots (1-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-0)
Line: Patriots by 2. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Patriots -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bills -3.5.
Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Bills.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. There was a report Sunday morning that said the Seahawks and Kam Chancellor were $900,000 apart in negotiations. Seeing Dion Bailey fall down on the Lance Kendricks game-tying touchdown may give Chancellor more leverage, but I hope it doesn’t. In fact, I would suggest for the Seahawks not to pay Chancellor a single dime.

These negotiations are ridiculous. I can understand a player entering his contract season asking for more money. That’s actually logical. But Chancellor signed his deal a year ago. How can anyone ask for more money just one season into a 4-year deal?

I think the Seahawks caving to Chancellor’s demands would set a bad precedent. If Chancellor gets what he’s asking for, what’s to stop every other player from doing the same one year into a long-term contract? And what if they declare that they want even more money a season after that? It’s a slippery slope that Seattle’s front office should definitely avoid.

2. I know you all have your share of bad fantasy beats. I really want to discuss one of mine, only because I’ve had the worst luck ever in this league I’ve been in since 2002. I’ve only won one championship in that league since I started playing in it, as I always get screwed over with injuries or inexplicable bad performances. You remember that awful showing from Adrian Peterson against the 49ers in his rookie year? Yup, had him, and it cost me a playoff game. I have so many other stories, and even my friend Kenny laughed at what happened this past weekend. He texted me: “You have the worst luck I’ve ever seen in this league!”

Check out this scoreboard. Just look at it:

Yeah. Ridiculous. And my team is stacked, too:

I know hearing people complain about bad fantasy beats isn’t very entertaining, but I just had to vent about this.

3. I miss Bill Simmons. I really do. Hearing him overreact to stuff each week was a good strategy on which teams to fade and whatnot. That’s why I got nostalgic seeing this:

Ah, good times. If I would’ve heard Simmons rant about how the Patriots were a lock to cover, I would’ve bet the house on Steelers +7.5. Sure, they backdoored, but they outgained the Patriots by 100-plus yards, but lost because they constantly shot themselves in the foot.

Unfortunately, Simmons had to go and criticize Roger Goodell, prompting him to get fired. I’m actually glad ESPN is losing lots of money. They’re getting what they deserve.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: I posted hate mail earlier. I didn’t check back what people wrote on Thursday night, but I imagine it was even worse. I had so many individuals asking me on Facebook if I felt dumb about declaring that Tom Brady played like a rotting corpse during the preseason.

Easy answer: No. More-complicated answer: No, most definitely not. Brady did play like a rotting corpse in the preseason. He was awful. And what he did last Thursday wasn’t impressive, either. Almost every quarterback in the NFL can toss checkdowns against a defense that doesn’t know how to line up properly. Like, Alex Smith could have put together an absolutely identical performance. Brady tried to go downfield a couple of times, and what happened? On each occasion, the ball fluttered helplessly incomplete. Brady’s arm strength is gone. He’s still a very smart quarterback, so like Peyton Manning, he’ll be able to beat bad teams with his mind, but the Bills most certainly are not a bad team. Not anymore.

I’m sure Brady will attempt his dink-and-dunk tactics in this contest, but it’ll be much more difficult for him to move the chains. I think even the most passionate New England fan would agree, as Brady is going from battling the NFL’s worst defense to one of the best stop units. I don’t trust Brady’s pass protection to hold up – the Bills didn’t even have Marcell Dareus last week, and he’ll be back from suspension – and Rob Gronkowski definitely isn’t going to be open on every third play. Meanwhile, LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis will find no running room versus a defense that just limited Frank Gore to just 31 rushing yards.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: While the Bills are extremely stout defensively, the Patriots are not. They surrendered so many big chunks during the opener that it took the Steelers shooting themselves in the foot on so many occasions for it not to be a back-and-forth shootout. And now, Dominique Easley, who was one of the few Patriot defenders who looked good during the preseason, is out with a hip pointer? Not good.

New England struggled in all aspects Thursday night. It couldn’t even stop DeAngelo Williams, who was running behind an offensive line missing its Pro Bowl center, for crying out loud. It’s difficult not to envision LeSean McCoy having a huge performance. The Patriots project to have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, and McCoy is obviously much better than Williams right now.

Meanwhile, Tyrod Taylor will also have a solid showing. I love Taylor; his emergence made me believe that the Bills, whom I had projected at 7-9 back in July, could win the division. Taylor did not disappoint in the opener; on the contrary, he made so many great plays. Granted, he was battling a shaky Indianapolis defense, but as I indicated, New England’s stop unit might even be worse. With Easley out, all the Patriots have are Chandler Jones, Jamie Collins, Devin McCourty and Dont’a Hightower. The rest of the defenders struggled in the opener, especially the two starting corners, as well as the rest of the defensive line. Taylor won’t have much pressure to deal with, allowing him to torch and run all over the Patriots.

RECAP: This is my September NFL Pick of the Month. I love the Bills for so many reasons:

1. Motivation: This is the biggest game for the Bills since what, their playoff contest following the 1999 season? This is a HUGE statement game for them, more so than last week. Taking down the Patriots would prove to everyone that they are legitimate.

Meanwhile, the Patriots just had a statement victory of their own – and an unimpressive one at that, considering how poorly their defense played. I can’t see them putting forth that much energy for the second contest in a row, especially against a team that they have very little respect for.

2. Speaking of the win over Pittsburgh, the public overreaction to it was ridiculous. I saw it first-hand in terms of the comments and e-mails I received. ESPN, meanwhile, has New England as its top team, which is absurd, considering all of the personnel the Patriots lost this offseason. Even the most passionate Pats fans would agree that the 2015 version of their squad isn’t nearly as good as the one that won the Super Bowl in 2014, so, logically, how can New England be No. 1?

3. Oh, and in terms of how good the Patriots are in comparison to the Bills… I have Buffalo higher in my NFL Power Rankings. Perhaps my rankings are wrong in that regard, but this spread of +2 (at Bovada right now) is saying that New England is five points better than Buffalo, which is completely wrong. By my numbers, the Bills should be -3.5.

4. The public, however, doesn’t believe so, which is why there is an incorrect spread posted on this contest. Casual bettors are pounding the Patriots based solely on what they saw Thursday night. Nearly 80 percent of the action is on New England, yet the line has fallen from Patriots -1.5 to -1 or pick, depending on the book. The casinos want people to wager on the Patriots after a brutal week for them. Think about that.

5. Speaking of that Thursday night game, one angle I really like is betting against a favorite coming off a Thursday night victory. They’re off extra days, and during that time, they hear all about how great they were. The Patriots have undoubtedly heard about how they’re No. 1, according to ESPN. Thus, the fire they had versus Pittsburgh will no longer be there. Instead, I expect the Patriots to be a bit sloppy and lethargic, and they could totally be overwhelmed by a crowd that will be going nuts.

6. Don’t underestimate the Buffalo faithful. True home teams in Bills games are 21-11 against the spread the past two seasons for a reason.

7. Rex Ryan! I love Ryan as a coach, and he is one of the few people who has had Bill Belichick’s number. I don’t know if Ryan has figured out how to counter Belichick’s videotapes and EMPs, but his success against Belichick is undeniable. Ryan is 8-5 against the spread versus Belichick, which includes an outright playoff victory as a 10-point underdog. That number is pretty impressive, considering that the Patriots have always possessed superior talent.

Once again the Bills are my September NFL Pick of the Month. Good luck if you plan on betting this game, and follow me @walterfootball for updates. I’m holding out for a better number right now, so check back later.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Tons of big-money bets by sharps were placed on the Bills on Saturday afternoon. I’m still loving Buffalo, and a +2 spread is still available on Bovada. I’d jump on that, as this spread could go to Bills -3 by kickoff.

SUNDAY NOTES: No surprise that the Bills are now -1.5. The professional bettors are all over Buffalo, as am I, obviously. In fact, thanks to VBSiena from the forums, I’m moving this to eight units, since that was the amount I used to wager on Picks of the Month.

The Psychology. Edge: Bills.

This is the biggest game in Buffalo’s franchise history since the team previously made the playoffs. The Patriots, meanwhile, have been hearing about how great they are for the past week-and-a-half.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

No believers in Buffalo yet?

Percentage of money on New England: 75% (38,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 21 of the last 23 meetings.

Patriots are 44-32 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Tom Brady is 176-59 as a starter (133-97 ATS).

Tom Brady is 9-2 ATS as a favorite of fewer than 3 points.

True home teams are 21-11 ATS in the last 32 Bills games.

Rex Ryan is 8-5 ATS versus Bill Belichick.

Bills are 16-26 ATS in their last 42 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Patriots -1.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Bills 27, Patriots 16
Bills +2 (8 Units – September NFL Pick of the Month) — Incorrect; -$880
Under 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 40, Bills 32

Arizona Cardinals (1-0) at Chicago Bears (0-1)
Line: Cardinals by 1.5. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Cardinals -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cardinals -3.
Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. I’m almost ashamed I didn’t mention this last week, but Penn State has a fat kicker:

Look at that flab hanging over his pants! As a Penn State alumnus, I’m ashamed we lost to Temple, but I think we were the true winners of that game because we had a 300-pound kicker on the field. I’m just confused over why we didn’t have him eat the opposing quarterback. That way, we might have had a chance to beat those pesky Owls!

2. I’m sad that football is turning into a panzy sport. If you didn’t see the Auburn-Jacksonville State game, some Tiger player named Countess was ejected from the game for “targeting.” This “targeting” penalty occurred when the Jacksonville State quarterback slid. Countess hit him as this was happening. He didn’t collide with his helmet, or anything. It was just a routine tackle. You’re not supposed to hit a signal-caller when he slides feet first, but this occurred simultaneously.

It made zero sense that Countess was ejected. Ten years ago, this would’ve been applauded as a great play. Now, not only is it illegal; but it warrants an ejection. Soon enough, football players will be dressed in bras and playing with balloons.

By the way, Countess? What were this guy’s ancestors thinking? Yeah, let’s have a last name where we sound like we’re some 70-year-old evil woman with long nails who yells at her servants all day.

3. Speaking of the Auburn game, can I say how depressing it was that the Tigers beat Jacksonville State? The Tigers were half-asleep in that game, and they were guilty of dumb things aside from crappy quarterbacking, including some idiot signaling for a fair catch on a regular kickoff with no one around him, which I’ve never seen before. Auburn also was super proud of its giant scoreboard, which the sideline reporter said was larger than the Leaning Tower of Pisa.

Jacksonville State, meanwhile, worked so hard in the game. It deserved the victory. Instead, the Football Gods proved to be a**holes and handed Auburn the win. I have no affiliations against Auburn; it was more so seeing the poor, 45-point underdog get so close and come away heart-broken.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: I wanted to start things off with the Bears because I found it hilarious that their coaching staff told the media that they were happy with how Jay Cutler played against the Packers. So, Cutler completed just half his passes, took bad sacks and committed yet another back-breaking interception, yet they were happy? I can’t even imagine what would make them upset.

The thing is, Cutler didn’t even face much of a challenge this past Sunday. The Packers were short-handed, missing two starters in their front seven, and all Cutler had to do was hand the ball off to Matt Forte, who had an explosive outing. The Cardinals, meanwhile, just limited a Drew Brees offense to just 19 points. They definitely won’t be able to completely contain Forte, but they’ll have better success against him than Green Bay did.

With that in mind, Cutler will have to do more on his own against a talented secondary comprised of numerous play-makers. Oh, and he’ll also have Calais Campbell breathing down his neck, as the shaky interior of his offensive line will somehow have to deal with him.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: John Fox is now coaching the Bears, yet they still have the same old defense. I mean, it looked a tad better than last year – I ragged on Shea McClellin on the podcast, but was actually pretty solid in the season opener – but overall, the stop unit was underwhelming. Outside of Jarvis Jenkins, no player generated any sort of pass rush against the Packers, while the secondary continued to struggle.

The Cardinals have some issues up front, namely at right tackle, but I don’t think the Bears will be able to take advantage of that liability. The Saints couldn’t, after all, so I don’t see why Chicago would have more success. Carson Palmer, who has developed a great rapport with John Brown along with Larry Fitzgerald, should be able to pick up where he left off last week.

The one difference this time is that Andre Ellington probably won’t be available. Ellington looked so explosive in the opener, so he’ll be missed. The two Johnsons will take over in relief, but I’m concerned that the Cardinals will use the wrong one. Chris Johnson is a rusty relic from the past, whereas David Johnson provides more upside. However, Bruce Arians told the media that it’s a mistake to rely on rookies. Arizona fans have to be hoping that Arians was purposely lying.

RECAP: I wouldn’t advocate going with too many square sides this week after what happened this past Sunday, but here’s one I like. The Cardinals are the better team and obviously possess the better defense. Besides, betting against Jay Cutler is almost always a winning proposition. Cutler is an unreal 36-66 against the spread, excluding Monday Night Football. That itself is worth at least a unit on its own, and Arizona being the superior squad at under -3 is worth the other.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is all over the Cardinals. They could have the right side this time, as betting against Cutler has been a huge money-maker over the years.

SUNDAY NOTES: There’s some late money coming in on Arizona, perhaps because Alshon Jeffery is out. Even if the Cardinals are the right side, I don’t get why anyone would wager their hard-earned money on Jay Cutler.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Vegas sportsbooks should advertise free meals and drinks to anyone who bets on Jay Cutler, since no one seems to want to do it.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 80% (23,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Jay Cutler is 36-66 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Cardinals -2.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Cardinals 23, Bears 16
Cardinals -1.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cardinals 48, Bears 23

Tennessee Titans (1-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-1)
Line: Pick. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Browns -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Titans -1 (McCown) or Titans -3 (Manziel).
Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Titans.

If you followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Five years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for the 2013 season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses. In 2014, Donald Sterling answered spammers.

This week, I have a new Spam Mail in which some person told me he was robbed on vacations in Manila. How could I possibly help!? Check out the link.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: So, that Marcus Mariota guy looks pretty good, eh? Mariota had one of the best rookie quarterback debuts in NFL history, throwing four touchdowns, all while dissecting an NFL defense flawlessly. Then again, can we really call Tampa’s stop unit an “NFL defense?” I’m really not so sure. Believe me, I’m not taking anything away from Mariota because I liked him much better than Jameis Winston coming out of school, but even the most passionate of his fans have to acknowledge that there will be much tougher challenges ahead.

The Browns? Not so much. They just allowed Ryan Fitzpatrick to have success against them, so why can’t Mariota match or improve that performance? Cleveland struggled to cover Brandon Marshall, who looked like he quit football in 2014. Joe Haden was inexplicably poor, and while I expect him to rebound, the same can’t be said for the other members of the Browns’ defense.

The thing is, Mariota may not even have to throw a single score to win this game. Just handing the ball off to a rejuvenated Bishop Sankey might be enough because Cleveland’s run defense is an abomination. Rookie nose tackle Danny Shelton struggled, as did numerous other Browns when trying to contain Chris Ivory. Given that defending ground attacks was a major problem for them in 2014, I don’t expect this issue to be fixed anytime soon.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: I actually thought the Browns had a chance to beat the Jets despite the 31-10 result, had Josh McCown stayed in the game. McCown suffered a concussion, unfortunately, forcing Johnny Manziel into the lineup. Though Manziel’s days of rolling $20s are apparently over, he still didn’t look like an NFL quarterback. Sure, he threw a bomb to Travis Benjamin and picked up a chunk of yards on a long scramble, but he did many more stupid things. In the end, he committed three turnovers, gift-wrapping a victory for the Jets.

Mike Pettine said that they’re game-planning as if Manziel is going to start this contest. This is obviously bad news for the Browns (or good news, in terms of their draft position). I’d go on and on about how much better Tennessee’s defense looks at the moment, but I’ll save it for next week because it doesn’t matter. Manziel is that bad, and he’s going to make dumb decisions that end up costing Cleveland the game.

RECAP: I’m definitely taking the Titans regardless of which quarterback plays. The line movement indicates that the books know they made a terrible number; they’ve moved it all the way from Browns -4 to Titans -1. However, I still don’t think they’ve adjusted it enough if Manziel plays. He sucks.

I’m going to slap a “TBA” on this right now because I want to monitor Cleveland’s quarterbacking situation. If McCown suits up, I don’t think I’ll be betting Tennessee. If, however, Manziel is the quarterback, this might be a two-unit play at the very least. Check back, or follow @walterfootball for updates.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Johnny Manziel will be starting, meaning the Titans are in play for a bet of two or three units. Manziel sucks, and it’s funny that he’s squaring off with Mariota because Mariota epitomizes everything Manziel should strive to become – a hard-working, smart, humble quarterback. Instead, Manziel just wants to roll $20s, flash money signs and act like a complete douche. I’m happy to bet against him.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Titans are one of the two top public plays this week (Rams). Sometimes the public is right though. If you’re thinking about betting the Browns, I’d strongly advise against it. Believe me, I know what it’s like to lose money to Johnny Manziel. It’s not pretty. You may even consider jumping off a bridge. I’m not saying to bet on the Titans like me, but wagering on Manziel is like lighting your hard-earned cash on fire.

SUNDAY NOTES: This seems like the square side on the surface, especially with the spread moving in Cleveland’s favor, but I feel like betting on Johnny Manziel is the square thing to do.

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.
The Titans have the Colts next week, but they’re such a young team that I don’t think they’ll be looking ahead quite yet.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

All aboard the Marcus Mariota bandwagon!

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 82% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Browns are 19-12 ATS after allowing 30 or more points since 2005.

Browns are 9-17 ATS as favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Browns -4.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Titans 23, Browns 17
Titans PK (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Browns 28, Titans 14

San Diego Chargers (1-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-0)
Line: Bengals by 3.5. Total: 47.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Bengals -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bengals -4.
Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Bengals.

Video of the Week: This video is a few years old, but it was just introduced to me. It’s Game of Thrones and Seinfeld mixed together (thanks, Chris R.):

I have no idea why this is funny. It shouldn’t be. It’s just Game of Thrones with a laugh track. But for some reason, it’s hilarious.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Chargers beat the Lions last week, but for a while, it looked like they were going to lose. Detroit was blowing them out early, as San Diego’s defense was having a couple of issues. The team struggled against the run whenever Ameer Abdullah had the ball, while Manti Te’o proved to be a liability in coverage, which would explain why Eric Ebron enjoyed a career performance.

You probably know where I’m going with this. Tyler Eifert and Jeremy Hill are two of the three best players in Cincinnati’s offense, and they are among the most-talented athletes at their positions in the league. Hill is a dynamic back who is very difficult to contain, while we just saw what Eifert, a former first-round pick, can be capable of if he stays healthy. Unlike last year, the Bengals have some mega talents outside of A.J. Green at Andy Dalton’s disposal, and I have a hard time imagining Cincinnati being slowed down in this contest.

The one chance the Chargers might have is if they put immense heat on Dalton and force some errant passes from him. The problem with that is Cincinnati’s offensive line kept his pocket clean for the most part in the opener. Sure, it was against the Raiders, but that meant the Bengals had to deal with Khalil Mack. Oakland is terrible for sure, but the pass rush is not one of its many liabilities.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Much like the Bengals, San Diego has a plethora of offense weapons that weren’t around last year. Keenan Allen played, but he was sluggish and out of shape. That’s not the case anymore. Stevie Johnson is as good as advertised, while Ladarius Green is finally having the chance to showcase his unbelievable talent with Antonio Gates sidelined.

Rivers figures to have a strong outing on paper, but I worry about his protection. Guard D.J. Fluker is out, which is huge because the Bengals get most of their pass rush from the interior from Geno Atkins, who once again looks like a terror. Atkins struggled in 2014 coming off an injury, but he’s definitely back to form. He and Carlos Dunlap could give Rivers problems all afternoon.

The Chargers also have some new talents in the backfield; Melvin Gordon was much better in the season opener than he was in the exhibition games, while Danny Woodhead has gotten over his own injury. It remains to be seen how good Cincinnati’s ground defense is, as Latavius Murray didn’t have much of an opportunity because the Raiders were down big early on. Establishing Gordon and Woodhead is crucial to keep Rivers in short-yardage situations.

RECAP: I don’t have a strong feel for this game. If this were just Bengals -3 -110, I’d feel better about taking the host, but you either have to go with -3.5 or -3 -120, which I’m not a fan of.

I’m still picking Cincinnati, though. The Bengals play better at home, while the Chargers not having Fluker around could be a big factor.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a bit of sharp money on the Bengals. They seem like the right side, but I’m not confident enough to bet on it.

SUNDAY NOTES: Nothing’s changed. Should be a good game. No units either way.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.
Slight lean on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 63% (17,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Mike McCoy is 4-2 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

Bengals are 12-5 ATS at home since 2013.

Bengals are 21-38 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Opening Line: Bengals -3.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Chargers 21
Bengals -3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 47.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bengals 24, Chargers 19

St. Louis Rams (1-0) at Washington Redskins (0-1)
Line: Rams by 3.5. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Rams -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Rams -2.5.
Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Rams.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

I’ve been citing that Tom Brady has lost his “clutch” ability over the past few years, but I guess I can’t do that any longer because he just won his fourth Super Bowl. Or, can I…? Brady, after all, reached the “Big Game” with the help of his deflated footballs.

Brady was stuck on three Super Bowls for a long time before he resorted to cheating. So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona. Including this one…

To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Excluding Trent Williams, the Redskins’ offensive line doesn’t block very well. The Rams, meanwhile, have one of the top pass rushes in the NFL. Hmm… I wonder what’s going to happen.

It’s difficult to envision the Redskins having much offensive success in this contest. DeSean Jackson is out, so there’s no deep threat for St. Louis to worry about. The Rams will be able to stack the line of scrimmage to help defend against Alfred Morris, who will be running against a front that limited Marshawn Lynch to 4.1 yards per carry. Morris’ 121-yard outing will seem like a distant memory.

With Morris struggling to find room, Cousins will be in long-yardage situations, unless, of course, he dinks and dunks the ball to Jordan Reed. This will work sometimes – Jimmy Graham just beat the Rams pretty effectively – but any sort of penalty will likely stall Washington’s drives and make scoring difficult in general.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: One of the major surprises in Week 1 was St. Louis beating Seattle without needing a ridiculous amount of fluky special-teams plays. Another big shock, at least to me, was the play of the Washington defense. The Redskins weren’t great or anything, but they were actually competent, which is something they most certainly were not the past couple of seasons. However, was that a mirage; was Miami just that lethargic? Or is Washington’s stop unit turning things around?

I’m not sure which one it is, and I don’t know if we’ll have our answer after this contest. Despite the Rams’ offensive success in Week 1, I don’t really have much optimism for them to field a consistent scoring attack. It’s not that I don’t trust Nick Foles, but his offensive line sucks, while his receiving corps is very pedestrian. I still can’t believe they’re using Kenny Britt. I’d be embarrassed if I were in their shoes.

What the Redskins were projected to do well heading into this season was put pressure on the quarterback with Ryan Kerrigan, Jason Hatcher and perhaps rookie Preston Smith, who performed well in his debut. I expect them to put heavy heat on Foles, who will likely find it difficult to move the chains in this game.

RECAP: Handicapping 101 says that the Redskins are the right play. The Rams just had their biggest win in years, so they’re due for a huge letdown, especially against an opponent that commands no respect. Meanwhile, we’re getting great line value with the Redskins. The line moved just one point, but it’s over the key threshold of three. That’s very significant.

If this were 4-5 years ago, I’d wager five or so units on the Redskins. The NFL has changed, however, thanks to the new CBA. Because lazy football players don’t want to practice as often, the worst teams in the league are worse now. That’s why the terrible teams have such issues covering now, but Vegas has yet to adjust.

Having said that, we don’t know how bad the Redskins are yet. Are they a bottom-three team? If so, they’re not covering this spread. But if they’re in the 29-26 range, they have a good shot. I liked what I saw out of them against the Dolphins, but it was just one game, and Miami was sleepwalking. Still, I think the Redskins are worth a one-unit play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned, the Rams are the other highly bet public team. This one seems wrong. Even against the lowly Redskins, the Rams don’t deserve to be 3.5-point road favorites. This figures to be a low-scoring contest decided by a field goal, so taking the points makes sense. I can’t bet highly on Washington, however.

SUNDAY NOTES: I’m curious to see how the Redskins look. Like I said, if they’re a 30-32 team in terms of rankings, they’ll lose and fail to cover. If they’re 26-29, they’ll cover, as the Rams are in a horrible spot.

The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.

The Rams are coming off such an emotional victory. I can’t imagine that they’ll be up for this contest.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

Anyone want to bet on the Rams? No?

Percentage of money on St. Louis: 84% (27,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

Rams are 28-41 ATS on grass since 2001.

Favorites after playing the Seahawks are 7-24 ATS.

Redskins are 7-16 ATS in September home games since 2001.

Opening Line: Rams -3.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Redskins 17, Rams 16
Redskins +3.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Redskins 24, Rams 10

Atlanta Falcons (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1)
Line: Giants by 2.5. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Giants -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Giants -1.
Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

We’re going to have new features on the site shortly, beginning with something we published recently. You can go here to Create Your Own Power Rankings – and once you do, people will be sending you hate mail, just like they do for my NFL Power Rankings.

Also, check this out: We have a new Matchup Breakdown, featuring game logs, experts’ picks and more.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: I joked that Matt Ryan was rolling $20s in the bathroom with Johnny Manziel during halftime of the Monday Night Football game because he was so much worse after intermission. He was on the verge of self-destructing, which was strange considering how precise he was in the first half.

Part of the problem was Ryan’s pass protection. It completely let him down, as the Eagles sent blitzers whom Atlanta couldn’t handle. This was no surprise, as the Falcons once again don’t have the best blocking for their quarterback. With that in mind, it’s a good thing Ryan is battling the Giants this week, given that New York has a non-existant pass rush. The Giants couldn’t generate any heat on Tony Romo, and I have to believe that barring Jason Pierre-Paul receiving some miraculous hand transplant, they’ll once again struggle in that department.

Of course, the Falcons are going to move the chains regardless throughout most of the afternoon, thanks to Julio Jones. The monstrous wideout has emerged as arguably the top player at his position, and it doesn’t seem as though any team has the manpower to contain him at the moment. This includes the Giants, despite their talented starting corners.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Like Ryan, the Falcons’ defense put on a show in the first half, but collapsed after the break. They actually nearly literally collapsed; they seemed so exhausted that I thought some of their players would pass out on the field. Fortunately for them, most other teams don’t play with that sort of frantic tempo.

The Giants can, however, move the chains effectively. Eli Manning made everyone forget about his preseason rust with a solid showing – final throw-away gaffe aside – and he put together consistent drives against a defense that is probably as good as Atlanta’s. That said, something the Falcons have that the Cowboys don’t at the current moment is a solid, No. 1 cornerback. Desmond Trufant is an excellent player who had a strong 2015 debut, and while Odell Beckham Jr. can’t be shut down, I’m sure Trufant will give him a challenge.

Something the Falcons will have to do in this contest that they didn’t have to in the opener is stop the run. Chip Kelly inexplicably shied away from the rush, but the Giants are definitely going to give the rock to their backs; they have three runners who share time equally, and Tom Coughlin will make sure that the running game is emphasized. I don’t trust Atlanta to have great success against it.

RECAP: I like betting against favorites that play on Thursday night, simply because it’s so difficult for them to be completely focused with just three days of rest coming up. I also like betting NFC East teams when playing at home. The Giants, much like every team in the division, has been horrible as a host, and I think they’ll be drained following such an emotional loss. I like the Falcons here for a couple of units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s mixed money on this one, with the sharps, shraps and public not really sure where to go with it. I still like the Falcons for two units, as the Giants suck at home.

SUNDAY NOTES: There’s some late sharp money on the Falcons. Grab it now before it falls any further.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Giants will be desperate to avoid 2-0, but they’re coming off an emotional loss.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 53% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Giants -2.5.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Falcons 24, Giants 23
Falcons +2.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 49 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Falcons 24, Giants 20

Week 2 NFL Picks – Late Games
Miami at Jacksonville, Baltimore at Oakland, Dallas at Philadelphia, Seattle at Green Bay, New York Jets at Indianapolis

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 2 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 13

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
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Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
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2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
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2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)