NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2015

NFL Picks (Preseason 2015): 7-10-1 (-$1,420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2015): 10-6 (+$940)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2015): 9-7 (-$895)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2015): 7-9 (-$870)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2015): 6-8-1 (-$360)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2015): 6-6-2 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2015): 5-8-1 (-$690)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2015): 4-9-1 (-$860)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2015): 5-8-1 (+$520)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2015): 8-5 (+$280)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2015): 6-8 (-$610)

NFL Picks (2015): 73-84-6 (-$3,910)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 22, 5:35 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games

Tennessee Titans (2-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6)
Line: Jaguars by 3. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Thursday, Nov 19, 8:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Titans.

WEEK 10 RECAP: For the second week in a row, I was slightly down heading into a Monday night in which I had a four-unit pick on the line. Unfortunately, I did not have the same luck, as the 11-point-favorite Bengals lost straight up to one of the worst teams in the league, somehow. I don’t get it.

What a weird week. Eleven of the 14 underdogs prior to Monday won outright, and a 12th, the Giants, had the victory in hand, but got unlucky. The public was absolutely slaughtered, and Vegas ended up winning money on every single game except for Steelers-Browns, but only because Ben Roethlisberger took over for an injured Landry Jones.

I didn’t lose much Sunday, but seeing the Packers go down in flames hurt. I had five units on Green Bay, and despite watching the game entirely, I don’t know what happened. I understand Aaron Rodgers sucking against the top defenses in the NFL, but the Lions have been a dumpster fire this year. They’ve struggled in every regard, so the fact that they prevailed outright is just mind-boggling to me. I’m sure it’ll all make sense in a month once we see other results – perhaps the Lions will go on a winning streak, or it’ll be revealed that Rodgers has an injury – but as of right now, I feel like I just woke up from a bad dream.

WEEK 11 BETTING TRENDS – UNDERDOG SU WINNERS: Because so many underdogs won straight up, I’ll be focusing on them this week. How do teams perform after winning outright as dogs on standard rest during the regular season? Well, in the New CBA Era (2011-present), they are 143-167 against the spread. That may not sound great, but it’s a 46.1-percent rate on a huge sample size. That means fading these teams will have given you a 53.9-percent winning clip, which is solid because the break-even point for NFL betting is 52.6 percent. Not bad for betting blindly!

This season, straight-up underdog winners are 18-20 ATS, which isn’t great, but they’ve been under .500 every year in the New CBA Era. With that in mind, let’s look at the different scenarios available to us from the results of this decade:

*Underdog SU Winner over Divisional Opponent: 48-51 (48.5%)
&Underdog SU Winner over Non-Divisional Opponent: 95-116 (45.0%)
^Underdog SU Winner at Home: 47-74 (38.8%)!!!!
%Underdog SU Winner on Road: 96-93 (50.8%)
$Underdog SU Winner, Now Favored: 67-73 (47.9%)
#Underdog SU Winner, Won as Double-Digit Dog: 4-7 (36.4%)

*Teams that qualify: Cardinals, Chiefs, Lions
&Teams that qualify: Jaguars, Bears, Dolphins, Redskins, Vikings, Texans
^Teams that qualify: Redskins
%Teams that qualify: Jaguars, Bears, Cardinals, Chiefs, Dolphins, Lions, Vikings, Texans
$Teams that qualify: Jaguars, Cardinals, Chiefs, Dolphins, Vikings
#Teams that qualify: Lions, Texans

The Lions, Texans and Redskins look like automatic fades this week – especially the former. A 47-74 ATS trend that makes a lot of sense is pretty sick. Oh, and if you combine the top two results – straight-up winners at home versus non-divisional foes – you get a 31-54 ATS record, which is 36.5 percent.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars are coming off a nice win at Baltimore, albeit a very fortunate one. Winning a second-straight contest appeared as though it was going to be a challenge in the wake of some injuries, but the two players in question, T.J. Yeldon and Allen Hurns, will likely suit up.

Yeldon was in a walking boot Monday, but he shed it the very next day. The Titans surprisingly have stopped the run very well, however, so don’t think that Jacksonville can have success moving the chains on the ground just because Yeldon is going to play. Tennessee has limited three of its previous five opponents to 65 rushing yards or fewer, and it’s likely to be four of six after this contest.

Hurns being out of the lineup would have hurt a lot more. He’s was considered questionable with an abdominal injury, but despite the short work week, he’s expected to be in the lineup. Hurns is a major part of the reason why the Jaguars have moved the chains somewhat effectively. He and Allen Robinson have served as dynamic downfield options, though I think Julius Thomas could also have a big game, as the Titans haven’t been very good against tight ends. Having said that, the Titans have a forceful pass rush that will disrupt some of the Jacksonville drives.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Marcus Mariota torched the Saints, but he was in for a rude awakening against the Panthers’ dominant defense. Mariota’s performance this Sunday should be somewhere in between; the Jaguars have a decent defense, but they definitely have some holes that can be exploited.

Jacksonville has some issues in the secondary, as the cornerbacks are just mediocre, while the safeties have struggled. Mariota will have an opportunity to torch the Jaguars’ defensive backfield, though that could depend on Kendall Wright’s status. If Wright is out, Mariota’s downfield options will be limited. It was promising to see him scramble more last week, so perhaps we’ll see more of that in this contest.

Much like the Jaguars, the Titans won’t be able to run the ball effectively. Baltimore didn’t even bother to hand the ball off to Justin Forsett for the most part last week, as Jacksonville is at the top of the charts in terms of rush defense. It’s not like Antonio Andrews is that effective, anyway, so perhaps Dexter McCluster will be the running back of choice, thanks to his pass-catching ability.

RECAP: It’s amazing how many times I’ve heard casual fans/squares say that the Jaguars are the better team. Really? Based on what? A fluky victory at Baltimore that should’ve never happened by the NFL’s own admission? A back-door touchdown at the Jets versus a quarterback with a broken thumb? A win over E.J. Manuel, who gift-wrapped 14 points to Jacksonville’s defense? I’m not sure what the Jaguars have done that’s so impressive.

Tennessee’s victory at New Orleans was the best thing either of these teams have done this year. The Titans are 4-2 against the spread with a healthy Mariota at the helm. One of the losses occurred last week, but there was no shame in that because Carolina was the opponent. The other was back in Week 2 following a demolition of Tampa. The Titans – not the Jaguars – are the superior squad in this matchup.

The Titans have secretly played solid defense lately, and I really like their pass rush versus Jacksonville’s horrid offensive line. Mariota, meanwhile, should do just enough to win the game.

Something else to consider is that despite sentiments that the Jaguars are better, and the fact that some action is coming in on the host, this spread opened Jacksonville -3 and dropped to -2.5 in most places (though +3 -115 at Bovada still).

I’m taking the Titans, the real better team, for three units (as long as I can get them for +3 -115 or better).

I’ll be posting NFL Picks on Wednesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nothing has changed, so I like the Titans for three units. They’re the superior team, and the last time they went into Florida against an inferior foe, they demolished the Buccaneers. The sharps seem to agree with me, as they’ve been betting on the visitor.

By the way, Matvei likes the Titans as well. We weren’t able to record a pre-Thursday podcast again because of scheduling issues, but he texted me that he’s on Tennessee for a play: “Cannot believe the Jaguars are favored. It’s baffling.”

The Psychology. Edge: Titans.

The Jaguars are coming off a last-second, emotional win.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 59% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

History: Underdog has covered 5 of the last 7 meetings, excluding a push.

Jaguars are 11-5 ATS coming off a 2-game road trip the previous 16 instances.

Jaguars are 6-14 ATS as home favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Jaguars -3.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Titans 20, Jaguars 17
Titans +3 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jaguars 19, Titans 13

Washington Redskins (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (9-0)
Line: Panthers by 6.5. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Panthers -8.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -12.
Sunday, Nov 22, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Panthers.

VEGAS UPDATE: The six top-bet teams each week were 26-27-1 against the spread heading into Week 10. How’d they do this past weekend? Take a look:

Packers -11 – Loss

Patriots -7.5 – Loss

Saints -1 – Loss

Panthers -5.5 – Win

Cowboys +2 – Loss

Bengals -10.5 – Loss

As noted earlier, the public got slaughtered. I imagine many bettors will be shopping at the dollar store for Christmas this Black Friday.

Here are the six top bets in Week 10, as of Wednesday afternoon (27-32-1 ATS this year):

Raiders -2

Cardinals -5

Cowboys PK

Patriots -7

Chiefs -3

Jets ?? (will probably be one of the teams)

Except for the Raiders and Cardinals, most of these teams are being wagered on at a lower rate than usual. This could be a result of the public losing tons of money and needing that cash for the holidays.

Once again, follow @walterfootball for updates.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: I’ll spare you all the “You like that!?” jokes that the NFL Network showered us with on Gameday Final and instead talk about how other quarterbacks have torched the Saints. Eli Manning and Marcus Mariota combined for 10 touchdowns, yet struggled the following week. Manning maintained a woeful 5.3 YPA at Tampa, and then Mariota threw a pick without a touchdown against Carolina. I guess you could say that we have a blueprint for how Cousins will perform, given that Mariota also went from the Saints to the Panthers.

Cousins is going to struggle. There’s no doubt about that. The injuries he has on the offensive line didn’t matter against Rob Ryan’s stinky stop unit, but they definitely will in this particular matchup. The Panthers have one of the top pass rushes in the NFL, and Washington is vulnerable up front. Cousins’ weapons won’t be able to get open against Carolina’s elite secondary either.

The Redskins also ran the ball extremely well on the Saints. That won’t happen this week either, as Carolina boasts a top-10 ground defense. If the Panthers establish a big lead, it won’t matter anyway, as Washington will be forced to throw on most downs.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Will the Panthers be able to take an early advantage? I don’t see why not. The Redskins have plenty of liabilities on their defense that Carolina will be able to exploit.

Washington’s rush defense has been miserable this season, as the team came into Week 10 ranked 29th in that department. I don’t know why the Saints didn’t try to take advantage of that with Mark Ingram when the game was close in the first half, but I have to believe that Carolina will establish Jonathan Stewart early and often. Of course, the Redskins won’t be able to focus on Stewart with Cam Newton being such a rushing threat.

Newton will have success burning Washington’s secondary as well. The defensive backfield welcomed back DeAngelo Hall last week, but there are still some glaring issues there. Newton will complete the occasional deep pass, while Greg Olsen will have his usual strong performance.

RECAP: The Redskins, who match up very poorly with the Panthers in nearly every regard, are coming off a victory as a home underdog. This spread also isn’t nearly large enough (should be -12), though that’s nothing new with Carolina, a team that hasn’t gotten much respect from the oddsmakers all year.

All of this lines up for a huge play on the Panthers – except that they’re also in an unfavorable position. They have to play on Thanksgiving in just four days, so they could be distracted, just as most favorites are prior to taking the field on a Thursday (3-7 ATS this year).

I still think Carolina is the right side, but this is just a small wager for me.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m still on the Panthers for a unit. I get the argument for the Redskins, but I think this spread is way too low. Carolina has punished those who bet against it all year, and this could be another instance of that.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps pounced on the Redskins on Sunday morning. There’s even a -6.5 available on CRIS. Don’t let this sway you though, as the pros were wrong on the Panthers last week and most of this season.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Redskins are coming off a victory as an underdog. However, the Panthers could be looking ahead to their Thanksgiving game contest.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

Slight lean on the host.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 67% (29,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Panthers -7.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Panthers 30, Redskins 20
Panthers -6.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Panthers 44, Redskins 16

Oakland Raiders (4-5) at Detroit Lions (2-7)
Line: Raiders by 1.5. Total: 49.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Lions -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Raiders -3.
Sunday, Nov 22, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Raiders.

HATE MAIL: Lots of hate mail this week, as usual. Here’s a quick one to start off:

Yo, a**hole, if you’re trying to say something both bad and untrue about me, you can at least address me and not someone else.

Here’s some hate for the Packers pick, probably all from the same person:

I was honestly upset about being “POD bad” until I realized that I don’t know what that means.

Speaking of weird posts, check this out:

What a weirdo. Who the hell tries to defend himself based on the city he lives in? That’s just dumb. Who the hell cares if you live in an expensive city? It just means you’re stupid for irresponsibly wasting money on overpriced things and tiny, cockroach-filled apartments.

Last, but possibly least, is this from a douche named Mike Manning, who e-mails me multiple times each week to brag about the millions he’s making on football wagers. He tries to give me “advice,” but it’s usually dumb, condescending crap like this:

Man, why didn’t I grab the Titans “quick” to offset my Giants loss!?!? Derp!

DETROIT OFFENSE: I’m beginning with the Lions’ scoring attack, only because the Raiders lost a key defensive player this week. Aldon Smith has been suspended for an entire season for some unknown incident, which is unfortunate for Oakland because he was playing extremely well across from Khalil Mack in all facets.

The Raiders’ pass rush will be weaker in the wake of Smith’s absence, which has to be music to Matthew Stafford’s ears. Stafford has been under immense pressure all season behind a horrible offensive line. The blockers will still have to worry about Mack, but not having to battle Smith will be a relief. Oakland’s secondary can be beaten, so perhaps Stafford will have enough time on occasion to connect with Calvin Johnson.

Not having Smith also adversely affect the run defense, but that’s not an area the Lions can exploit. Joique Bell is as pedestrian as they come when it comes to lead backs, and the horrible blocking up front isn’t doing him any favors.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Though the Raiders lost a valuable piece on their defense, they’ll still be able to score tons of points themselves if all goes right. Derek Carr has enjoyed a terrific year thus far, thanks to a terrific offensive line and two dynamic weapons. However, the “if all goes right” is key. The Raiders posted just 14 points last week, which was the result of Rodney Hudson being out. Hudson is one of the top centers in the NFL, and replacement Tony Bergstrom was woeful in comparison.

Center is the second-most important position on offense, yet the public pays no attention to it. Thus, it’s very important to know whether or not Hudson will play. The latest report we have is Jack Del Rio telling the media that he’s not sure if Hudson will be able to go this week. One would think that battling the Lions wouldn’t matter, but just ask Aaron Rodgers. The Packers were limited to just three points until garbage time this past week, as Detroit put decent pressure on Rodgers.

The Lions have some major liabilities elsewhere that can be exposed. The team isn’t good versus the run; the linebackers can’t cover at all; and no one in the secondary, save for Darius Slay, is very good. If Hudson returns at or around to 100 percent, and Carr has time in the pocket as a consequence, Oakland will be able to torch Detroit’s anemic defense.

RECAP: I hate not to post a definitive pick right now, but I’ll have to wait on Hudson’s status. If he’s out, I’m going to pick the Lions. Winning without him will be difficult for the Raiders, who are in an unfavorable position of being a road favorite in a 1 p.m. East Coast game. They might also be distracted by the Smith suspension. If Hudson is going to play, however, I think I’ll side with the Raiders, though I won’t be taking them for any units. I’ll list the Lions as the selection in the meantime, but check back later or follow @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over Detroit, swinging this spread all the way from Raiders -2 to Lions -1. It sounds like Rodney Hudson will play, which makes me want to switch to Oakland, but I’ll hold off because there’s another pick change I want to make.

SUNDAY NOTES: Rodney Hudson is active today, so the Raiders could bounce back. This is a zero-unit selection either way. I’m 50-50 on this game.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.

The Lions, coming off a monumental win, have to play in four days. I can’t see them being up for this game.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

A surprising amount of action on the Raiders.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 75% (23,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

Raiders are 7-22 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Lions are 14-31 ATS against losing teams the previous 45 instances.

Lions are 1-9 ATS before their Thanksgiving game since 2005.

Opening Line: Raiders -1.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Lions 23, Raiders 20
Lions +1.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 49.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Lions 18, Raiders 13

Dallas Cowboys (2-7) at Miami Dolphins (4-5)
Line: Cowboys by 2.5. Total: 46.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Romo).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Nov 22, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It’s free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. There’s no reason not to enter. Click the link to register!

DALLAS OFFENSE: It’s crazy to think that the Cowboys once began 2-0. Seven losses later, Tony Romo returns. Unfortunately for them, it might be too late. They may have to win out to claim the division, and that means beating teams like the Panthers and Packers. And the Dolphins, too, though that isn’t a very difficult task.

The Dolphins had a roaring defense following the bye, but their stop unit declined once Cameron Wake suffered a season-ending injury. The pass rush isn’t nearly as potent as it once was, meaning Romo should have plenty of time behind his stalwart offensive line. He should consequently be able to shred a secondary that has been very leaky this year, thanks to the decline of Brent Grimes. Romo, by all accounts, has been lighting it up in practice, so it sounds like he’s 100 percent.

I expect the Cowboys to run effectively as well. The Dolphins have a bottom-10 ground defense, and Darren McFadden has looked solid since taking over the starting role from Joseph Randle. Opposing defenses stacked the box against McFadden, but they won’t be able to do that any longer with Romo back under center.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins sustained a major injury on this side of the ball in the same game. Two quarters prior to losing Wake, Ja’Wuan James got knocked out. His absence has hurt Ryan Tannehill’s pass protection, and it also made running the ball much more difficult for Lamar Miller.

Beginning with Tannehill, he has taken 11 sacks the past three weeks, which is an outrageous number. Tannehill hasn’t enjoyed the luxury of a clean pocket to connect with Jarvis Landry and his other weapons consistently. The Cowboys have liabilities in the secondary that can be exploited, but it’s fair to wonder if Tannehill will have any chances to find them, given that DE Woman Beater and the other pass-rushers will be breathing down his neck.

As for Miller, he has rushed for 102 yards on 37 carries in the three games without James. That’s a horrible YPC average of 2.76. The Cowboys are ranked in the middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the run, but Miller won’t be able to take advantage of that behind a weakened front line.

RECAP: Despite their worse record, the Cowboys are the better team. There’s no question about that. I can’t bet them, however, as the psyche of this team is unclear. They’re 2-7, and it’s possible that some of the players might have checked out. Sure, Romo is back, but playing with DE Woman Beater appears to have taken a toll on some of the players. He’s a menace who has ruined the spirit of the team. Jerry Jones, who is losing his mind, may think that Woman Beater is a leader, but he’s really one of the reasons why Dallas has lost every game. If the Cowboys cut him today, I might actually think about placing a couple of units on them in this matchup.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are moving this up in favor of the Cowboys. If it wasn’t for DE Woman Beater, I’d be on them as well, but I don’t know what their mindset is at this stage of the season.

SUNDAY NOTES: A college buddy of mine who has monitored my picks told me that there are certain games I seem to want to bet, but limit my wagers on. He circled this as one of those games. The sharps have pounded the Cowboys on Sunday morning, so I’ll jump on for a unit.

The Psychology. Edge: Cowboys.

A must-win for the Cowboys, who can’t have a winning season with another loss.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

The money is coming in on the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 72% (27,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

The underdog is 57-31 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Cowboys are 26-17 ATS as an underdog since 2009. ???

Jason Garrett is 6-2 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Dolphins -1.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Cowboys 24, Dolphins 16
Cowboys -2.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cowboys 24, Dolphins 14

Indianapolis Colts (4-5) at Atlanta Falcons (6-3)
Line: Falcons by 4. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Falcons -3.5 (Luck).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Falcons -6.
Sunday, Nov 22, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Falcons.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I’ve been asked my thoughts on Daily Fantasy and its legal issues by quite a few people over the past week, so I thought I’d address it here.

Remember back when you were a kid, and you played a game with your friends at recess that may have been slightly against the rules, and there was that one douche who tattled on you and your friends, ruining everyone’s fun? This kid was a miserable a**hole with no friends. Unfortunately, people like that grow up and often earn a position of power, thanks to all of the brown-nosing that they do throughout their life. Once that occurs, they keep doing the same thing they did while being a kid – they spoil everyone’s good time by shutting down something that may have been slightly against the rules.

New York attorney general Eric Schneiderman is one of these people. Schneiderman is an a**hole who would have no friends if he didn’t pay for them. He’s a miserable human being who doesn’t want anyone to have any fun.

Schneiderman filed an injunction to keep Daily Fantasy sites like FanDuel and Draft Kings from operating in New York, citing that they are violating the state’s gambling laws. The citizens will now have to turn to the New York State Lottery as a get-rich-quick scheme. Because playing the lottery is not gambling at all. It takes so much skill knowing what the numbers will be, so Scheiderman will never stop the lottery from operating.

Schneiderman’s issue is simply that he’s not getting in on the action. Much like the kid who tattled because no one wanted him around, Schneiderman is left out and wants DFS to stop operating because he’s not making any money off it. He’s a dirty politician with absolutely no integrity. You want people to stop gambling, Schneiderman? Fine. Put an end to your state’s lottery. Make it so gambling is completely illegal in New York so that no one can ever have any fun.

It’s even questionable whether DFS constitutes as gambling. Sure, there is a gambling aspect to it, but only like anything else. When boarding a plane, you’re gambling with your life. What if some goat-porking terrorist decides to blow up your plane? There are risks with everything, and there’s really not much to it when it comes to FanDuel. Most people bet $25 per day at most, and those who do win are usually math geeks with advanced formulas. DFS is not anything like conventional gambling. Playing slots and spinning the roulette wheel is pure gambling. Even poker is more gambling than skill; reading people are bluffing are talents, but if you get the worst hands, you’re seldom going to win.

DFS is way more skill than gambling. Take a look at who wins every day. Per a study, 1.3 percent of players win in DFS, and that 1.3 percent is comprised of math geeks with those fancy algorithms. If that isn’t skill, I don’t know what is.

DFS is fun. Even if people don’t win, it makes their sports-watching experience more enjoyable. DFS is not about gambling. No one is going to lose their house because they played so much DFS. I’d say that this isn’t something Schneiderman understands, but that wouldn’t be true. Schneiderman knows it’s fun. But he doesn’t want people to have fun. His financial interests are way more important. In fact, if Schneiderman were offered a piece of the pie, he’d instantly cease this nonsense. He’s a crook who needs to be stopped.

2. So, how can DFS stop Schneiderman? Easy. In fact, I’m shocked DFS hasn’t done it already.

Bribery? Nah. Schneiderman would win then, and that’s something we don’t want because he’s a scumbag. Besides, if DFS doesn’t offer him enough, he could blow the whistle on them, just like he did on the playground as a child.

Here’s what I would do: I’d hire a mobster to go over to his house and have a friendly chat with him. This mobster would explain to Schneiderman that DFS would have to be legal going forward, emphasizing the importance of overturning his decision. If Schneiderman doesn’t comply within 24 hours, this mobster would then slice off a horse’s head and put it in Schneiderman’s bed as a lesson for not listening.

How quickly do you think it would take Schneiderman to stop this nonsense once that occurred? It’s a 100-percent fool-proof plan. Sure, it’s something that came out of a movie, but it would work. I guarantee it. In fact, DFS presidents, if you’re reading this, I will volunteer to be that mobster if you pay me enough. Except, I’d feel bad about killing a horse, so I’d go to a farm and ask for a dead horse and use that. It would put an end to Schneiderman’s tyranny, and that’s what’s most important.

3. If you’re like me and want to see Scheiderman put in his place, but don’t want to deal with a horse’s head, go here to sign a petition to protect fantasy sports in New York.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Andrew Luck is out with a kidney laceration, meaning Matt Hasselbeck will make his third start of the season. Hasselbeck hasn’t been bad in his first two games, but he was battling some of the worst teams in the NFL. The Falcons are obviously better than Jacksonville and Houston, but it’s not like the team’s defense is all that dominant.

Atlanta has done some things well this year on the defensive side of the ball, but rushing the passer is not one of them. The Falcons have the fewest sacks in the NFL, so even though the Colts have pass protection issues, their pocket could be relatively clean for Hasselbeck in this contest. This should help Hasselbeck move the chains against a pedestrian secondary that features only one quality player. Desmond Trufant is great, but the other cornerbacks are just mediocre, while the safeties stink. T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief figure to get open often.

What the Falcons do well is contain the run. They are ranked in the top five in terms of YPC. With Luck missing, I’m sure Atlanta will be closer to the line of scrimmage to prevent Frank Gore from doing anything.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Unlike the Colts, the Falcons should be able to run the ball effectively. I still can’t believe how great Devonta Freeman has been, but he’ll be able to zip through an Indianapolis ground defense that has been just average this year. The Colts have taken care of mediocre running games, but Freeman has excelled against everyone since becoming the team’s full-time back in Week 3.

Matt Ryan has been very fortunate to have Freeman carrying the offense, as he has been pretty slightly above mediocre this year. Ryan should be fine here; solid, but unspectacular as usual. The Colts have struggled to get to the quarterback consistently, owning just 13 sacks on the season. Ryan’s pass protection has been hit-or-miss, but he’ll have time in the pocket this week to find Julio Jones and perhaps Leonard Hankerson, if he can suit up. There’s no stopping Jones, but Indianapolis’ secondary, which has been better since everyone returned from injury, should be able to limit everyone else.

RECAP: It seems odd that the Falcons would be favored by six over anyone, even a Hasselbeck-quarterbacked team. They’ve played like crap since blowing out the Texans in Week 4. They went into overtime against the Redskins; lost at New Orleans; barely escaped the Titans; lost to the Buccaneers at home; and they went down in flames against Blaine Gabbert. Even before the Houston contest, the Falcons needed the Eagles to miss a field goal, the Giants to screw up in the fourth quarter, and the Cowboys to blow a huge halftime lead to prevail. This team is not good, and it shouldn’t be laying this many points against anyone.

I’ll be picking the Colts, but it’s tough to place any sort of large wager on them because Hasselbeck is the quarterback, after all. Plus, it’s possible that the Falcons were able to work on some things during the bye. It wouldn’t surprise me if they got back on track in this contest, but Indianapolis still seems like the right side.

FINAL THOUGHTS: If you liked the Colts at +6, that spread is long gone. The pros have bet Indianapolis heavily. I still like the Colts at anything above +3. I’d bet this one ASAP, as it appears as though the number will continue to shrink.

SUNDAY NOTES: This might be the sharps’ No. 1 game this week. They’ve driven this down from +6 to +3! It’s still +3.5 or +4 in some books (Bovada for the latter), but it’s quickly falling.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
The Colts are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 54% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Matt Ryan is 32-24 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Falcons -6.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Falcons 23, Colts 20
Colts +4 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Colts 24, Falcons 21

St. Louis Rams (4-5) at Baltimore Ravens (2-7)
Line: Ravens by 3. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Rams -2.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Nov 22, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Rams.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. I haven’t discussed the college football playoff rankings yet. I’m fine with everything thus far, save for Iowa’s spot. I have no idea why the committee continues to place the Hawkeyes fifth. They’re just not that good. Sure, they’re undefeated, but so were the 2013 Chiefs. Remember them? They were 9-0, thanks to slim victories over horrible quarterbacks like Case Keenum and Charlie Frye. They ultimately got their a** handed to them by better opponents and collapsed down the stretch. The same thing is going to happen to Iowa. I mean, sure, if the Hawkeyes win the Big Ten, put them into the field, but ranking them this high so early is pretty stupid.

Of course, this wouldn’t matter as much if we had an eight-team playoff. Sure, we’d be arguing 8 vs. 9 instead of 4 vs. 5, but 8 vs. 9 is far less significant, since the ninth seed probably wouldn’t have much of a chance to win it all, whereas the fifth seed could definitely prevail.

2. This was one of the funniest things to come out of the college football action this past weekend: Baylor player fakes injury.

I’m actually fine with this. It looks ridiculous, but the NCAA and NFL haven’t done anything about changing the rules, so why can’t the defense gain a competitive edge by faking an injury and slowing down an opposing offense? I hate these ridiculous fast-paced attacks, only because they usually have those stupid signs Chip Kelly invented – the ones with four random pictures. I hate those things, and I’ve ranted about them on numerous occasions, so I’m not going down that dark path again.

What the NFL and NCAA should do, if they want to stop people faking injuries, is to have it so an injured player can’t re-enter the very same drive unless a timeout is used at any point. I think this would work. The NCAA already has a dumb rule where a player has to leave the field for one play if his helmet comes off, so why not make an “injured” player stay sidelined for a drive? It seems like the logical step – unless, of course, the rule-makers hate those dumb signs as much as I do.

3. Speaking of stupid things, Texas A&M is suing the Indianapolis Colts for their infringement on the copyright of the “12th Man.”

First of all, when were the Colts even using the “12th Man?” I’ve never heard this before. I know the Seahawks do – and they pay Texas A&M $5,000 per year to do so – but the Colts? When did that happen?

Second, how can Texas A&M sue for this? It seems ridiculous. How did they copyright the “12th Man?” It seems a bit obvious, no? There are 11 men on the field, so the crowd is the “12th Man.” I feel like every team should be able to say this.

If I were the Colts, I’d do one of two things: One, I’d troll Texas A&M and refer to my crowd as the “13th Man” and then copyright that. Two, I’d continue to use “12th Man” without paying them a single dime. What’s Texas A&M going to do? Sure, they’re filing a lawsuit, but who cares? If I were Jim Irsay, I’d hire some mobsters and tell Texas A&M, “I’m not showing up to court. If you want your money for ’12th Man,’ come and get it, mother-f***ers. We’ll see how my mob friends feel about that.”

I’m not usually in favor of violence, but when it comes to horrible lawsuits that waste taxpayer money and ruin our country? Sign me up.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: The Rams made some news this week by finally benching Nick Foles. The former Eagle had been atrocious for them for most of the season, so the switch was long overdue. Foles didn’t have much help from a pedestrian receiving corps and shaky offensive line, but he was miserable nonetheless and a change had to be made as a result.

Going to Case Keenum, however, isn’t very promising. As my dad would say, “same s***, different toilet.” Keenum sucks as well, though it can be pointed out that he has a decent matchup in this game – at least on paper. The Ravens are poor against the pass, as most quarterbacks have lit them up this year. However, the Rams have some offensive line injuries that could hinder their scoring attack in this matchup. Right tackle Rob Havenstein is out, which is a big deal because he has been one of their better linemen this year. His absence could allow the Ravens to pressure Keenum pretty consistently.

Of course, it won’t matter if Todd Gurley goes off and carries this offense. Gurley is one of the best running backs in the NFL, but he has a tough matchup here, as the Ravens, despite their inability to stop the pass, have a top-10 ground defense.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Rams have a dominant defense, but their performance last week against the Bears was baffling. They played with no discipline, often selling out to go for sacks and big plays, and not really focusing on actually tackling. Chicago, as a consequence, capitalized on several big plays, ultimately prevailing in a blowout.

The Bears were simply able to get so far ahead of the Rams that running the ball with Todd Gurley was rendered ineffective. I don’t think the Ravens can do that. St. Louis will be much more careful in this game than it was last week because the team is coming off a loss. Baltimore’s offense is also weakened in the wake of Steve Smith’s injury. The Ravens struggle to move the chains consistently, and the defense they’re battling this week won’t make things any easier in either regard. The Rams are eighth against the run and 15th versus aerial attacks, and they own one of the top pass rushes in the NFL.

Oh, and center Jeremy Zuttah is out. That’s a huge deal, as Zuttah is a top-10 player at his position. The center spot is extremely important, so Baltimore’s offense will struggle without him on the field, as John Urschel is not a good replacement.

RECAP: The sharps appear to be on the Ravens in the early going – we’ll know by Saturday for sure – but I’m picking the Rams. They’re the better team and should be able to rebound off the blowout loss to Chicago. Baltimore is snake-bitten and always seems to find a way to lose. It wouldn’t surprise me if they once again found a way to drop yet another game, especially without their starting center. The Rams’ defensive line is going to dominate the Ravens up front, so the visitor should be able to control this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m not sure why the sharps are moving this toward the Ravens, who won’t have their starting center. Perhaps they know something I don’t. Based on my results this year/decade, I’d say that’s definitely the case.

SUNDAY NOTES: This is another high sharp game, as this spread has now hit -3. Like I said, I don’t get it.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Most were betting the Rams.

Percentage of money on St. Louis: 55% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Rams are 10-5 ATS on the road after a home loss of 10+ excluding September games since 2005.

Jeff Fisher is 49-35 ATS as an underdog since 2006. ???

Rams are 29-44 ATS on grass since 2001.

Ravens are 20-11 ATS in November home games since 2000.

Ravens are 21-14 ATS at home as an underdog or favorite of 1-7 points with Joe Flacco.

Opening Line: Ravens -1.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Rams 17, Ravens 13
Rams +3 (2 Units) — Push; $0
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 16, Rams 13

New York Jets (5-4) at Houston Texans (4-5)
Line: Jets by 4. Total: 40.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Jets -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Jets -3.
Sunday, Nov 22, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Jets.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Five years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for the 2013 season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses. In 2014, Donald Sterling answered spammers.

This week, I have a new Spam Mail in which some person told me he was robbed on vacations in Manila. How could I possibly help!? Check out the link.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Both starting quarterbacks have unknown statuses at this time. For the Jets, Ryan Fitzpatrick just had thumb surgery, so Geno Smith could make the start. Based on the way Fitzpatrick threw last Thursday, Smith might be the better option anyway. Most of Fitzpatrick’s attempts were wide of the mark, and it’s difficult to imagine him being ready to play just nine days later.

Smith should have success versus the Texans. Andy Dalton couldn’t do much against Houston, but that’s because he was sailing helpless passes out of bounds and couldn’t get much protection from an offensive line that was struggling. Smith will be well protected, while his weapons will be able to get open against a Houston secondary that has struggled for the most part this season. The Texans have been poor in terms of tackling, and that could definitely continue after a statement victory.

The Jets should be able to move the chains effectively via Chris Ivory. The Texans have the 24th-ranked run defense, so Ivory, who showed more life with Nick Mangold back last week, could have another big game.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: For the Texans, Brian Hoyer is still in concussion protocol. Unlike the Jets, this matters much more, as backup T.J. Yates is barely an NFL talent. I know he completed some third downs and threw the game-winning touchdown to DeAndre Hopkins, but we’ve seen enough of him to know that he’s not very good. Cincinnati’s lackadaisical defense didn’t offer much resistance, but I have to believe that the Jets will make life very difficult for him.

New York will obviously use Darrelle Revis to neutralize Hopkins. The Houston wideout is a dynamic play-maker, so he won’t be completely shut down or anything, but Revis will at least limit him. Meanwhile, the Jets’ front line will put pressure on either Hoyer or Yates, which could force some turnovers. New York has accumulated 10 sacks the past two weeks, so it’ll be a long afternoon for whichever Houston quarterback starts.

The Texans once again won’t run the ball very well either. The Bengals aren’t very good against ground attacks (28th), and yet they shut down Alfred Blue. The Jets are ninth in that department, so Blue and the other Houston runners will be even less effective than usual.

RECAP: The Texans are a bad team coming off a huge upset, so I think this is a nice opportunity to go against them. There’s no spread posted as of this writing, however, so check back later for a more definitive pick, or follow @walterfootball for updates.

PICK POSTED: As I said in the shortened recap, I think this is a nice time to go against the Texans. They’re a terrible team coming off a win and they’ll be playing with their backup quarterback. The Jets have had extra time to prepare for this game, and I don’t see why they wouldn’t cover. If it wasn’t for all of the action coming in on the Jets, I think I’d take them for two or three units, but I’m fine placing a unit on them.

SUNDAY NOTES: Both the sharps and public are on the same side here, as the books posted the number too low. I still like the Jets for a unit.

The Psychology. Edge: Jets.

As a bad team coming off a win, the Texans may not be entirely focused for this game.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

I actually thought there’d be more money on the Jets.

Percentage of money on New York: 72% (13,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Jets -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Jets 16, Texans 10
Jets -4 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 40 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 24, Jets 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-5)
Line: Eagles by 7. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Eagles -8.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Eagles -7.
Sunday, Nov 22, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Eagles.

Video of the Week: I posted a heavily watched video last week, and I’m going to do the same thing this week. I’ve actually seen this one before, but I checked it out a long time ago and forgot how hilarious it was. Please note that there is cursing in this, so if you’re at work, make sure you have headphones on (thanks, Mark P):

I don’t understand how this hasn’t become a hit single yet. Sure, he’s not talking about how awesome he is, how much money he has, or how many b***hes he bangs, but it’s better than most rap (probably for that reason).

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: So much for Sam Bradford not being injury-prone. Chip Kelly’s sports-science mumbo-jumbo blew up in his face last week when Bradford suffered a shoulder injury and a concussion on the same play. The Human Bandage is expected to miss this game, as well as the Thanksgiving affair at Detroit.

Mark Sanchez might be a better fit in Kelly’s offense, but his issue is that he makes crucial errors at the worst times possible. Take last week, for instance. He did a great job of moving the team in the red zone to set up the Eagles with a game-winning field goal – except he threw a pass into tight coverage that was picked off. One of the radio announcers here had the perfect comparison for Sanchez: He’s like a sea captain, but despite there being just one iceberg in the ocean, Sanchez will always find a way to hit it. Sanchez has a nice matchup against a Tampa secondary that can’t cover anyone, and I expect him to move the chains effectively, but will he cost his team with a horrible give-away when it matters most?

This game will be mostly on Sanchez, as the Buccaneers clamp down on the run extremely well. They have the league’s fourth-best rush defense, and I doubt they’ll respect Philadelphia’s pedestrian receivers very much, so I expect them to play closer to the line of scrimmage to shut down DeMarco Murray, who is still being used improperly.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers have injury issues of their own on the offensive side of the ball, as Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Vincent Jackson have been out for a while. I don’t know what the deal with the former is. He’s been practicing for weeks, yet he just can’t take the field on Sundays. Perhaps this will be the week, and if so, he could take advantage of a linebacking corps missing its top cover man in Jordan Hicks.

Evans, meanwhile, will torch Philadelphia’s poor cornerbacks. The Eagles have had major issues dealing with opposing No. 1 receivers, partly because Byron Maxwell has been a mega bust. It’s nearly impossible to cover Evans anyway; the only person who can stop him is Evans himself, as he dropped six passes against the Giants. He let just one ball fall through his hands last week, so that’s a good sign.

Unlike the Eagles, Tampa could establish some sort of a rushing attack. The Eagles were once solid against the run, but that has changed lately; they’ve given up 4.62 yards per carry to their previous four opponents, three of whom reached the century mark on the ground. Doug Martin is a solid back who will help Jameis Winston move the chains. Winston will do some scrambling as well.

RECAP: I’m torn on this game. On one hand, this line isn’t high enough, as my numbers say that the Eagles should be seven-point favorites. Not getting the full touchdown hurts. On the other hand, Philadelphia plays on Thanksgiving in just four days, which is a very dubious spot. The Eagles have also been atrocious at home in recent years, so I’d rather not take them in this situation. I’m going to back the Buccaneers as a result, but I’m not too confident in doing so.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m surprised this spread hasn’t fallen at all. The pros haven’t bet either side yet, but perhaps that’ll change Sunday morning. I’m not crazy about the Buccaneers, but laying six with Sanchez seems a little nuts.

SUNDAY NOTES: The professionals finally weighed in on this game. They’ve bet the Eagles, which is surprising to me.

The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.
The Buccaneers pulled an upset as an underdog, but the Eagles have a Thanksgiving game coming up on short rest.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 54% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Road Team is 62-36 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Eagles are 16-30 ATS at home since 2010.

Opening Line: Eagles -6.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Eagles 27, Buccaneers 23
Buccaneers +7 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Buccaneers 45, Eagles 17

Denver Broncos (7-2) at Chicago Bears (4-5)
Line: Broncos by 2. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Nov 22, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

I’ve been citing that Tom Brady has lost his “clutch” ability over the past few years, but I guess I can’t do that any longer because he just won his fourth Super Bowl. Or, can I…? Brady, after all, reached the “Big Game” with the help of his deflated footballs.

Brady was stuck on three Super Bowls for a long time before he resorted to cheating. So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona. Including this one…

To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos have announced that Peyton Manning will not start this game. It’s about time. Manning has been horrific this season, even before injuring his foot. He had a nice outing against the Packers, but everyone has been torching Green Bay this season. I’ve been joking that Manning has played like a dying animal this season, but he truly looked like a deer that had just collided with a car against the Chiefs. It’s ridiculous that he had nearly as many interceptions (4) as completions (5).

Brock Osweiler will be an upgrade, even if it’s only by default. I didn’t like some of the things I saw from Osweiler in terms of pocket awareness, but he showed zip on some of his passes and mobility that Manning never possessed. Osweiler should have a solid game against a Chicago defense that is ailed by a questionable secondary. I like Adrian Amos, but many of the other players are just iffy in coverage, and Osweiler has the weapons at his disposal to be relatively successful.

It would help Osweiler if he could lean on a strong rushing attack, but Denver hasn’t been able to pound the ball whatsoever this year. The offensive line hasn’t been able to open up anything, but perhaps it’ll have some success against the Bears, who have a bottom-10 ground defense. That said, I wouldn’t hold my breath.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Broncos’ organization and fans are obviously familiar with Jay Cutler, but they may not recognize him anymore. Cutler has been a new man this year. He was a heartless bum who didn’t care whether his team won or loss under Marc Trestman a year ago, but he has been very sharp and emotionally invested under Adam Gase. He’s playing with passion for the first time in a very long while.

This is a tough matchup for Cutler, but perhaps Gase and John Fox will know a thing or two on how to expose the Denver defense. The Broncos were dominant earlier in the year, but they’ve unraveled following their big victory over the Packers. Not having DeMarcus Ware in the lineup hasn’t helped, so I think Cutler could have a fairly decent outing.

Jeremy Langford has also been huge for Chicago. It’s unknown if Matt Forte will play, but it doesn’t even matter very much at this point, thanks to Langford’s emergence. The Broncos just had trouble dealing with Charcandrick West, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Langford (or Forte) happened to expose a defense that appears to be on the decline.

RECAP: This is a tough game to handicap. These teams seem to match up evenly right now. That wouldn’t have been the case a month ago, but the Broncos appear to be regressing, while Chicago is playng its best football right now.

There are clashing psychological factors as well. The Bears play against arch-rival Green Bay in just four days, but Fox and Gase will want revenge on their former team. I’m sure they’ll have a great game plan prepared for this contest, so I’m going to pick them to cover. This is a zero-unit play for me, however, as there are just too many contradicting factors.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Here’s my pick change. The sharps are all over the Broncos, but that’s one of two reasons I’m taking them. The other reason is that I thought about it, and I want to pick a good team missing its starting quarterback. The Bears have to play in four days, and I know Fox and Gase will want revenge on their former team, but neither coach has ever gotten a good lock at Osweiler, who should be an upgrade over Manning. But going back to the line move – Matvei and I talked about it on the podcast: The sharps have done extremely well when it comes to the Broncos, so they might have some inside info. I don’t mind rolling with that.

SUNDAY NOTES: This is going to be another unit change. With Alshon Jeffery out, I have to wonder how the Bears will move the chains on Denver’s awesome defense. The sharps apparently agree, as they’ve been betting this up. I’ll put a unit on Denver.

The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.
The Broncos will be looking to bounce back from two losses, and I expect full effort from them with Brock Osweiler at the helm. The Bears, meanwhile, play in four days on Thanksgiving. On the other hand, John Fox and Adam Gase will want revenge.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 54% (26,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Jay Cutler is 40-68 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Broncos -2.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Broncos 23, Bears 20
Broncos -2 (1 Unit) — Push; $0
Over 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Broncos 17, Bears 15

Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games
Cincinnati at Arizona, San Francisco at Seattle, Kansas City at San Diego, Buffalo at New England

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)